On A Happier Note

Or possibly notes. First up, I agree with Instapundit that I hope this is right and COVID19 has peaked, and it trends with other data breakdowns I’ve seen elsewhere. As the article notes, the media is into fear porn and does not take into account that the daily death totals released DO NOT ALL DIE ON THAT DAY. It can take days, or even weeks, for the information to come in, so you have to look at when the deaths actually occurred. It also helps to look at the actual death certificates (as one researcher is doing in at least one state) to see if the person died with COVID19 (cough, motorcycle crash, cough) or died of it. Keep in mind that the highest death rates are in the group of 80 plus years old with co-morbidities. Most deaths have on average 2.5 co-morbidities.

Big Tech’s censoring of the group of doctors trying to get the word out about HCQ/Z-Pac/Zinc being used by them (and hundreds of others, probably thousands around the world), has backfired rather spectacularly. As a result of their heavy-handed tactics, a real debate over the effectiveness is slowly starting to take place with real data making it into at least parts of the media as well as social media. In my COVID19 reports, I’ve linked to medical studies (as opposed to the academic studies) from doctors who actually treat patients that when used properly and at the right time, that they are seeing up to a 99 percent success rates. Even when not given as early as is best, the success rates still are above 90 percent. This article puts a lot of things into perspective, and raises serious questions about why there is such a sustained campaign by some (Fauci, who is a bureaucrat and administrator, not a practicing physician). It is link rich, and well worth a read. Again, hat tip to Instapundit.

And, a reminder that the FDA and CDC are political agencies, not healthcare agencies. The testing issues we had at the start, which prevented early detection, treatment, and control, came from the bureaucratic desire to control everything — even though they did not have the resources (or expertise) to do effective testing, nor to do the amount of testing. Despite raising a number of hurdles and efforts to, frankly, thwart development of inexpensive home testing, such efforts are in work. Again, courtesy of Instapundit, comes this article looking at those efforts and where they stand.

Again, keep in mind that when caught and treated early, the success rate is not just more than 99 percent, the severity of the symptoms and the need for hospitalization and ventilators is significantly reduced. That’s a bit of an understatement — see the studies linked in the above article (some of which were previously linked to here). Almost all the problems we have had, as well as the lockdown, can be laid squarely in the laps of the CDC/FDA/NIAID. Testing difficulties, resistance to treatment, interference in doctor/patient decisions on how to treat, and actively trying to suppress evidence from medical studies by real doctors has been, along with general incompetence, have been the hallmark of our so-called elites.

For me, if I am diagnosed with COVID19, I’m asking my doctor for HCQ/Z-Pac/Zinc and we will discuss it and other treatment options. Then, an informed decision between my doctor and I will result in treatment. The idea of one doctor (who is not a practicing physician but an un-elected bureaucrat) determining the treatment for millions is not only ludicrous, but un-American.

Let’s hope it is not needed, and that the good news on the peak is correct. Let’s hope that a real discussion of real medical studies and treatments can take place despite the efforts of Big Tech and Big Government to censor it. Let the marketplace of ideas, and free individual choice, rule.

More On COVID-19

First up, a study has been released by the IHU that looks at 3,737 patients treated there using HCQ-AZ (primary) and other treatments. The results are quite interesting, and it is worth noting that the death rate of those treated was 0.9% (35 deaths), and only 6.2% had a poor clinical outcome. You really should read the study since it gets into the underlying conditions and other factors that went into the poor outcomes. Their conclusion notes that early testing, diagnosis, and treatment are key to successful outcomes (more than 93 %).

It is a shame that HCQ has been politicized the way it has in the U.S., and it is worth noting that studies overseas that do honest reviews of HCQ-AZ (plus zinc) show very different outcomes than the limited, and somewhat questionable, studies done here. As such, it worth noting that only 4.5% of the patients treated at/through the IHU has problems with the treatment and most of those were mild (GI). Really, go read the whole thing.

Next up, how many really died of COVID-19? It’s less, possibly far less, than the 121,809 claimed by the CDC. Why? Read this and the linked article. As I noted when discontinuing the daily updates, the numbers being fed the public are worthless, and will remain so until corrected. Even if that number could stand, which it can’t, new data from the CDC saying that the number of cases may be 10 times what is reported. Which means that it is even less deadly, and/or debilitating, than reported. Now, take a look at the number of people who die from the regular flu in a given year. Go on, look it up as you might not believe it if I just tell you. For this we have gutted our economy and freedoms?

Speaking of the lockdown, guess what was ineffective? And as for herd immunity, this study indicates that less than half of the population would need immunity to create herd immunity, as opposed to the 60 % that is the current/classic standard.

Finally, the elephant in the room that the MSM, CDC, and the usual suspects do not and will not talk about. The surges and spikes that are happening? Guess where they probably came from. Yet another signal failure of our so-called elites.

I want to thank two people for their tireless and even bulldog work on the science of COVID-19. First is Glenn Reynolds, the Instapundit. While his co-bloggers have done good work, Glenn has been tenacious on the science and has earned multiple hat tips here and on social media from me. Second, I want to thank Dr. Didier Raoult at the IHU for his efforts to get not only his own data out, but who has tirelessly shared studies and information from multiple other studies. His sharing, and informed commentary, has been everything our own experts have failed to do.

T-Cells Better Indicator Than Antibodies?

This is a fascinating read on tracking COVID-19. If other studies back this up, we may find that COVID-19 was even more widespread than believed. That’s important to know, since it would also likely push the survival rate up well past 99 percent from the current (roughly) 98 percent. It would also show that it was not as contagious as presented. Hat tip to Instapundit.

Two quick thoughts to share.

First, I’m wondering if the COVID-19 that hit the world was/is a weakened version of what first spread in China. The reports that got out from China (as opposed to the lies of the Chinese government) present a much grimmer picture and the response of the Chinese government was/is extreme given what we know of COVID-19 elsewhere. It also raises questions about what the CCP thought got loose.

Second, I wonder if — once the dubious death statistics are corrected/updated — we will see that the death rate was actually significantly lower than the normal death rate from the seasonal flu. There is data that shows it is the same or lower right now. Another fact that is being studiously ignored by the MSM.

BONUS LINK: He’s right you know… /Morgan Freeman Voice

Brief News

Working on several things, including trying to find results from either the French or Welsh studies on nicotine as both a preventative and a treatment for COVID-19. Turns out, there may be more such studies…

Continuing to keep an eye on the data anomalies mention in previous posts. Keeping an eye on the India/China border as well. Keep in mind that with the Middle Kingdom, not all is as it appears. I continue to believe that the open and covert actions underway indicate a degree of desperation on the part of Xi and the senior CCP leadership. China, and the Chinese economy, are far more brittle than many think and that is both an opportunity and a danger. Right tap, right spot, and it could shatter. That said, they seem more than eager to provoke direct military conflict with multiple countries, including the U.S. for reasons that make sense to them. If they think their allies here will go to bat fully for them, I think they are gravely misreading the situation and their degree of control.

More soon.

Ending the COVID-19 Updates

I’ve made the call to stop the updates. Right now, the numbers are meaningless, unreliable, and being used to stoke panic and push agendas. To compare the number of deaths to that of a war is both odious and deceitful, not to mention meaningless as we lose around this number to the flu (and we have lost far less than common accidents take out each day).

With the death numbers highly suspect, and the number of cases on a world-wide basis also highly suspect because a number of countries are believed to be significantly underreporting both cases and deaths (cough, China, cough). Essentially giving a bonus to hospitals/others for declaring a death as being from COVID-19, even if the person was not tested for the disease, has made U.S. death figures meaningless.

The repeated manipulation of the numbers by the mainstream media and certain politicians out to score points, does nothing good. It creates panic, and it creates opportunities for the unscrupulous. It does nothing to advance rational discussion or the marketplace of ideas.

I will continue to post links to interesting papers and articles, so that they can be discussed and at least some rational discussion can be put forth into the debate.

Frankly, I find it interesting that for all we have learned about COVID-19, we still don’t know that much. We actually still don’t know how it kills; rather, we have seen many patients die of cytokine storms when it provokes the body to attack itself, and an interesting group of younger victims who have had strokes as a result of infection. Beyond that, there is evidence that it interferes with hemoglobin and oxygen saturation on some level. But, we still don’t know exactly how and why it kills.

The origins do very much matter, as it is interesting, fascinating even, on a biomolecular structural level. How it mutates, and how fast it mutates, is going to make a huge difference in how it interacts with us both later this year and the years to come. There are a lot of questions about it’s structure and how it came to be that need answers, answers that can only come with time and proper study.

While I repeat what I’ve said all along, that whatever it is it is NOT an end-stage (finished) bioweapon. That said, you could not ask for much more out of a bioweapon, esp. one designed to take out a nation for a period of time rather kill everyone (economic versus destruction). The spread rate is far higher than our so-called experts believed at the start. It is transmissible when those infected are asymptomatic and many who have it remain asymptomatic. It is transmissible through multiple vectors, and no we still don’t know all of what and how their either. There are a number of other oddities and issues, but the fact remains that for all it is NOT an end-stage bioweapon is has certainly functioned as one on several levels.

By now, if you don’t know the basics, don’t know how to wash your hands, put on and use gloves and masks, and other aspects of dealing with this, not much can be done for you. So, there is no need to keep repeating the basics.

From now on, I intend to write about the interesting articles, and to do separate commentary on the political and economic aspects. For all that there is some connection between the two, the politics have started driving things well beyond the science.

For those of you who have regularly read and enjoyed my updates, my thanks. I hope you enjoy the articles to come.

COVID-19 17Apr20

Beyond the guidelines on ending this flippin lockdown, there is a fair bit of news and even some good news. Let’s start with the good news.

First, the clinical trial of Remdesivir, from Gilead, has proven successful. You can read more here.

Second, a trial of Pluristem Theraputics, Inc.’s allogenic placental expanded (PLX) cells is now underway in the U.S. Seven patients at high risk of death in Israel were treated with it, and all survived. It is worth noting that the treatment may suppress or reverse the over-activation of the immune system that appears to be the cause of death in a number of victims.

While the study is from China (trust nothing, verify the everliving out of it), it is safe to go outside and stay there. You are far more likely to get it, and for multiple infections to occur if you are inside. I will echo a number of others who said ‘No duh, closing parks, beaches, etc. was fracking stupid’ and I will add that it was done by power hungry fascists who need to be removed from office ASAP.

In potentially good news, the CDC is looking at the universal testing results from a men’s shelter in Boston. A small number of positives led to the decision to do a universal test, which resulted in 146 of 397 people tested being confirmed as infected — and none of the 146 were symptomatic. Seriously, go read this as it turns a lot of the CDC/NIAIC/Etc. assumptions on their head. False assumptions lead to bad guidelines and operations. Correcting that is imperative, for both biomedical and political reasons.

In more neutral news, it appears that obesity may significantly increase your chance of becoming severely ill with COVID-19, particularly in younger to middle-aged people. I will be interested in watching to see what linkage this has with the reports that glucose metabolism (and diabetes) may play an important part in that over-stimulation of the immune system (cytokine storms) mentioned earlier. Certain types of diabetes are often linked to obesity. If COVID-19 and certain flus are indeed causing deaths by cytokine storms, understanding the mechanism is crucial to countering.

Again, it will be at least a year before we have the data and answers we need. A lot of good research has begun, and preliminary studies are not only helping shape treatment (and response), but are identifying and refining areas of future research and development. May I highly suggest not trusting media reports on the research: it is often flat out (deliberately in some cases) wrong, as I pointed out yesterday. Go to the papers, read the abstract, and on short papers take the time to read the entire publication. It is well worth the time.

I will also say that the continued war on Hydroxychloroquin is disgusting at best. The people behind this, and who actively push it, are doing a tremendous disservice and frankly should be held accountable for it. They would literally, not figuratively, rather people die than to admit that it has been shown to be effective in a number of cases. They continue to ignore as much as possible that an American study, the results of which were presented to the CDC in 2005 (link in previous updates), showed that it was effective against ALL covids. This active bit of stupidity needs to have legal consequences, as well as social.

In conclusion, don’t let the MSM wind you up or be your main source of info. When it comes to false information, they lead the pack.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 16Apr20

COVID-19 10Apr20

COVID-19 9Apr20

COVID-19 8Apr20

COVID-19 6Apr20

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 16Apr20

Yes, I took a few days off. First, most of the news on COVID-19, aka Winnie the Flu/Xi Flu/Chinese Flu/etc., was political in nature rather than science based. Second, a lot of the more learned discussion had to do with models, and much of the really good discussions on that would be “inside baseball” to most people. Short version remains, however, that the prime model used for policy is seriously flawed and even with corrections is not yet close to reality. Until it is, it should not be used for policy decisions in my opinion. Third, I needed a break and got some other things done.

Before I get to the main topic for today, two quick notes. It is good to see that what was previously taboo is now going mainstream. Back two months ago, if you talked about the safety problems at both labs in Wuhan and even appeared to entertain the idea it could have been a lab accident, you were guilty of spreading false information and could be deplatformed. I’m glad several of us did, and even more glad to see some more open discussion of those problems and the possibility this started in a lab.

This article asks another taboo question that needs full and honest discussion. Given that the Chinese economy is brittle and was already in trouble; and, that Xi seized the opportunity to expand monitoring even as troublesome people were disappeared and various cleansings expanded, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Xi decided to level the world economic field a bit and make the most of it.

The main topic for today, however, is a study being breathlessly touted in the media for saying it is futile to develop a vaccine (and with some other slams). No, no it does not say that vaccine research is futile. Not unless you selectively edit the quote.

“Based on the close relationship of SARS-CoV-2 to SARS, current vaccine and drug development for SARS-CoV-2 has also focused on the S protein and its human binding receptor ACE2 (7, 24). Thus, the observation in this study raised the alarm that SARS290 CoV-2 mutation with varied epitope profile could arise at any time, which means current vaccine development against SARS-CoV-2 is at great risk of becoming futile. “

Let’s break this down and take on some of the media talking points.

Point 1: Until it is peer reviewed, and other studies confirm (or refute) it’s findings, I don’t trust it. Number of reasons, including that early studies can be like early reporting: full of errors and sensationalism.

Point 2: A finding of the study is that a mutation of COVID-19 has been found in India. That mutation, if you go to line 282 in the paper, actually makes that version less infectious as it reduces the ability to bind to ACE2 receptors. Did you get that? The mutation is less infectious, not more.

Point 3: Unlike some other covids and other viruses, the rate of mutation in COVID-19 is slow. If you go to line 229, this paper confirms that and even goes so far as to note “A relatively stable genome of SARS-CoV-2 is a good indication for the epidemic control, as less mutation raises the hope of the rapid development of validate vaccine and antiviral drugs.” Hardly the breathless gloom and doom implied by various headlines and discussion.

Point 4: Going back to the discussion above, changes in the S protein may make vaccine development targeted to that protein (and the related ACE2 binding) futile. Not all vaccines, just that target.

There are some other interesting points in the paper, but again it has to be taken with caution for now. As other studies replicate or provide information, a better assessment can be made.

As I discussed in a previous update that discussed structure-based drug design, viruses mutate. It’s a given. Some mutate slowly, some like an ADD squirrel in a field of nuts. Some mutations make the virus easier to catch, some make it more deadly, others can change receptors, symptoms, and more.

The fact is, however, that quite a few of those mutations are evolutionary dead-ends. Too deadly, and people die before they can transmit it. Less infectious (as seems to be the case discussed here), again, it is a strain that could die out well before others.

The key to vaccine development for fast mutations is to find targets that don’t change, because when those change that strain dies out. There are always such targets, the trick is finding them and finding ways to target them.

In conclusion, don’t let the MSM wind you up or be your main source of info. When it comes to false information, they lead the pack.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 10Apr20

COVID-19 9Apr20

COVID-19 8Apr20

COVID-19 6Apr20

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 10Apr20

A while back, I linked to an article about the CDC shutting down a number of lab tests that were faster and better than their own. This morning, there was secondary confirmation of that story.

When we look back on this event, the initial botched response by the CDC, and the absolute failure of testing coming from the actions of the CDC and FDA, should rightly take center stage. Testing is essential to identify, to develop treatments, and to limit the spread. To this day, the FDA and CDC continue to erect stonewall after stonewall to efforts to that would end this ordeal.

In my book, the failure of testing — and to get us the millions of tests we need both for the disease and for the antibodies — is the single largest failure of the response. With proper testing, you can scale responses to an appropriate degree for the situation, instead of slamming a “one size fits all” approach to the situation. With proper testing, you can clear those who are immune to return to work, along with those who are not a major risk. With proper testing and reporting, you can get critical supplies to where they are needed most, and even get them there ahead of the time of most urgent need.

Yet, bureaucratic roadblocks keep getting raised to effective, efficient, and desperately needed testing. It truly begs a question: Why?

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 9Apr20

COVID-19 8Apr20

COVID-19 6Apr20

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 9Apr20

Rather than get into all of the sturm un drang of the ongoing wars over data, who is counted as a casualty, and other fun stuff, I’m increasingly reminded of something that happened many years ago with another computer model. It brought home to me that models are only as good as the assumptions and data that go in, and on the competence of the person or persons developing the model.

Back in a galaxy far, far, away — wait, wrong intro. Back in the bad old days of Ronald Maximus Reagan, the left was in full fury (nothing’s changed, has it?) railing against him and his efforts to restore our military. Some scientists did a study, and created a model, showing that a nuclear exchange (which while possible, was not as probable as they made out) would cause a “nuclear winter.” A new, radioactive ice age that would doom the few poor survivors of the exchange. Lot of controversy, lots of distortion of the work, and thankfully lots of push back.

To cut short the timeline a bit, I was talking a few years later with a modeling and simulation expert at Argonne National Labs who worked with their “holo deck” (not the official name, but the highly unofficial one most people used) system. This 3-D imaging system was extremely realistic, and if you were in it on one particular scenario, they reminded you that if you started to feel motion sick, close your eyes — yes, it was that realistic. It was also amusing to watch a group inside it all swaying in unison as it was running…

We got to talking models, and the nuclear winter model came up. Seems that the original model was flawed, to put it mildly. In effect, the original model only had three dimensions (IIRC). The atmosphere was treated as a single mass; the earth was treated as a single mass; and, the nuclear explosions were effectively treated as one event. Not terribly realistic, and not even the weather models of the day were that simplistic.

According to the scientist I was talking with, to start getting realistic results you had to break the atmosphere into (at least) 15 different layers, which means at least 15 more dimensions to the model. By the time that was done and other sections brought up to something approaching reality, nuclear winter became, at worst, nuclear autumn. Not saying a nuclear exchange would be a good thing, but it would not result in the catastrophic weather changes the study touted.

More and more, as we deal with the various models, I’m reminded of the nuclear winter model. When you try to simplify things, or assume that something is simple, you are going to have problems. I wonder what a post-mortem of the models will show, and if this might not be a factor. We will see.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 8Apr20

COVID-19 6Apr20

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 8Apr20

Good Morning! The real-world data continues to differ significantly from those of the models, in a very positive way. I’m glad the Federal government has released it’s models, as there are reports one or more states are refusing to release their models. For today, I leave the model problems to others. That there are serious problems with the models, and the data, is the point to be made.

On the good news side, there is a promising drug for treating the pneumonia that can come from COVID-19 (as opposed to the virus itself); and, there is a clinical trial of sildenafil to treat COVID-19 underway.

Which brings up a not so nice topic, which is the media and so-called expert war on hydroxychloroquine. I don’t want to link to the story in question, from Axios, both because I don’t think it deserves the linkage and I don’t want to encourage them. I’ve seen similar stories in other outlets, including pretty much all my local media.

On Twitter, I’ve got a bit to say. Short version is that our so-called elite, who have yet to be right on a single major point in regards COVID-19, are slamming the treatment as unproven, claiming most (but not quite all) the studies are flawed, and that the thousands of positive outcomes are “anecdotal.” This despite the American study provided to the CDC in 2005 (previously linked here) showing that it was effective against all coronaviruses.

Instead, they push for new drugs to be developed, following FDA guidelines (and years and millions in development), rather than go with an inexpensive and effective treatment. Interesting, no? Also interesting are the number of state leaders (who seem to share something in common) that have tried to deny or are denying (claim on Twitter that Utah has reserved it to the state and won’t let physicians prescribe it) based on the comments of the so-called elite.

Given that at least one governor has been caught hoarding, one wonders if it not being reserved for the state equivalent of the nomenklatura? The single take away I have is that the media, political leaders who follow the “advice” of the so-called elite, and that failed elite itself would rather see you die than to admit a treatment works because it did not go through all the bureaucratic steps and/or was suggested by Trump.

That same bureaucratic swamp is still busy slowing things down or preventing effective responses. This article on “The Red Tape Nation” is a good read, as is this one on bureaucratic efforts to block making masks in America. Oh, and if you still think China is good, read this. If you don’t like Fox, same basic story is on multiple outlets.

A bit of what I consider good news. Lorraine Maradiaga, who said she was positive for COVID-19, posted threats online to infect as many as she could. She’s been arrested on terrorism charges. Good. She, other like her, and those doing “pranks” of spitting or sneezing on food all should be charged as such. God Bless Texas.

While it is not nice of me, I think anyone doing one of those “pranks” deserves whatever happens to them. If they get a beat-down before police arrive, I’m good with that. Which is why I’m sharing a favorite video:

On a more serious note, Roger L. Simon asks if the White House Press Association enabling communist propaganda. The answer is yes. The more interesting question is why they did it. I guarantee it was for gain, possibly on more than one level. Speaking of the WHPA, this video absolutely nails the behavior of it and its members at every briefing I’ve watched.

Going back to China, I’ve had questions about the virus and its origins. I’ve shared a number of them in previous updates. Today, courtesy of Instapundit, comes a very good question and reasonable theory on the origin. Keep in mind the two papers I’ve linked to in the past saying it was man-made. While there is a lot of debate on those papers, this article brings up a very good point (or three). It ties in strongly with what I’ve said for weeks.

Finally, while I try to keep politics down to a dull roar, I highly, highly urge you to read this take. Then, go back to the links I’ve given to any number of political responses, and where people have put politics (and self-gain) ahead of doing what is right for the Republic. Look at all those who have opposed doing effective and efficient responses, and note one thing they have in common. It is not a pretty picture.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 6Apr20

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness