Science and Technology – The Laughing Wolf

The Case For New Space Embryology Experiments

As I mentioned yesterday in my post about Breakfast with Instapundit, we verified that there was never a follow-up to the Frog Embryology Experiment (FEE) on Spacelab J/STS-47. I talked about that experiment, and it’s implications, in my Sex In Space post a while back. For those interested in the mission, there is a link to download a PDF of the mission brochure here.

I will also note that while many missions did 90-Day and 1-Year science reports, I can’t find any record of such for Spacelab J. In researching the Frog Embryology Experiment I found a potential reason for now follow-up experimentation in that the lead investigator (PI), Kenneth A. Souza, tragically passed away unexpectedly while still quite young. However, I was able to get in contact with one of his co-investigators, Steven D. Black, who was kind enough to share a copy of a paper done on the experiment and some general observations with me.

I’ve read the paper (PNAS, Vol. 92, March 1995, pp 1975-1978), and confirmed that my memory of “funky” tadpoles in orbit was partially correct. To quote from the abstract: “Eggs were fertilized in vitro, and although early embryonic stages showed some abnormalities, the embryos were able to regulate and produce nearly normal larvae.” As I noted in the previous post, they did grow into normal frogs that could reproduce normally once back on Earth. There were also some differences in lung size between the microgravity and 1G tadpoles/frogs, but this did resolve as well over time with exposure to a 1G environment. But, what happens if there is no rapid return to 1G?

However, the authors of the study (and paper) note that more experimentation in regards amphibians and other vertebrates. Sadly, this has not happened and I think it is time to do so. Especially given that within the next few years (if all goes well) we are likely to become a truly interplanetary species. The U.S., China, and others are looking at lunar bases. Elon has his eye on Mars (and beyond to the asteroids I suspect). I’m with Elon in respect to having such settlements as “lifeboats” if bad things happen on Earth. Given that we are in a major change of how things are done (see here if you didn’t read it the first tiime), and those who have been in power are not happy at seeing it end, not to mention politicians are fairly stupid overall, I think lifeboats are a great idea. Frankly, lots of them. I want The Island Worlds and I want them ASAP.

But, to truly have that and to deal with the fact that boys and girls are going to be boys and girls whether on Earth, Mars, the Moon, etc., we really need to be sure we understand embryology under those other circumstances. The original abnormalities seen in the FEE are a concern for me. Yes, they did appear to self-regulate and recover; but, do we really understand the “why” in either case? Do we know that this will hold true for other experiments or future generations? No, we don’t, and so we need to get such data rather quickly. Which means ISS is right out and we need to make full utilization of commercial space.

On the previous post, you my good and kind readers, helped flesh out the basic hardware and protocol. Let’s expand on that a bit, and see what we can come up with as a suggestion for those who can do something about this need.

First, the hardware will require a glovebox or similar concept for in vitro fertilization, and microgravity “living quarters” for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. It will also need four centrifuges that can contain “living quarters”/development chambers for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. The centrifuges should be divided as follows: 1G (control); 0.5G; 0.38G (Mars); and 0.16G (Luna). While it would be nice to have an additional centrifuge at 0.75G, it’s not essential and this beast is going to be enough of weight and space constraint as it is. Especially since some form of sonogram and/or other imaging is going to be needed to monitor the mammalian embryology and development. We need to be seeing what’s happening before birth.

Hopefully storage will be available outside of the experiment hardware for fixed or preserved samples; and some provision will be needed for returning live specimens to Earth on a regular basis. Otherwise, storage of preserved and live specimens needs to be incorporated in the hardware design. I will note that the Spacelab Frog Environmental Unit (FEU) could make a good start for helping with an updated design.

Frogs having been frequent fliers over the years, from sounding rocket experiments to the FEE on Spacelab, they make a good place to start. Lots of good data extant for comparison, known quantity in terms of resilience, handling, etc.

Where we have less knowledge (to the best of my knowledge) is mammalian development. While monkeys have flown in space, their size does not make them good subjects for such experimentation. Mice come to mind, but may not be optimal. We need rapid development and maturity, small size, and fairly resilient. Thoughts?

The basic protocols would be very similar to the FEE. Fertilize, grow, gather data, gather samples, and once mature start the next generation. For amphibian and mammalian I’d like to see this run out 10-15 generations. If a regular return service is available, it would be good to return at least one male and one female of each generation to Earth (mammalian, more better) and several of the amphibians of each generation to see how they do over time.

My two largest concerns, again, are normal development and the differences seen in lung size/development between microgravity and 1G tadpoles. Yes, they all did “normalize” and grow into normal adult frogs. But, will that happen without exposure or a full return to a 1G environment? Will this hold true for mammals? Pretty important questions, and just the start of some that are occurring to me. We are a predator species optimized for a 1G environment, what happens when we develop in a totally different environment?

Okay, there are the main concerns, some thoughts on hardware and protocol. Let’s flesh this out a bit and see if we can find someone who can make this happen.

EDIT I: Added link to PDF of PNAS paper.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Dire Situation

Well, really not that dire, at least in the conventional use of the term. What it is, is a good piece of corporate PR that serves up an interesting dish of ethics.

What I’m referring to is the announcement from Colossal Biosciences that they have ‘de-extincted’ the Dire Wolf. Yes, the caps are there for a reason, mostly to point out that I am referring to the species. For background on this, I will refer you to Leslie Eastman’s very good piece at Legal Insurrection.

Those of you who have read me for a while know I like and respect wolves, and did a small bit of volunteer work at Wolf Park (a wolf research and educational facility). In fact, got to spend some time with the founder, among others. Very much grateful for the time there, and the chance to actually work with/get to know some of the wolves.

I’m going to echo Leslie a bit here, and will simply state that this is overblown. It may be a step towards bringing the species back from extinction, but it is an early step that to my mind is no where near close. Got to agree with Leslie, if you want to bring them back you have to do the following:

1) The entire genetic sequence is from actual dire wolves;
2) The breed on their own; and,
3) They can thrive in the wild.

What they have done on certain levels is create a new wolf-dog hybrid. Admittedly, depending on how they did it, one could argue a wolf-direwolf hybrid, but the effect is the same. They have also created several ethics debates, of which I will approach only a couple of points.

First, it will be interesting to see what becomes of all the pups as they mature. Given all, I don’t expect the normal wolf mortality (roughly 90 percent of wolf pups don’t make it to one year of age if I’m remembering correctly) to be a factor; but, this is uncharted territory and there may be some issues that come up.

So, let’s be optimistic and say normal puppyhood. Seeing how they mature and how they behave as they mature will be interesting. The behavior traits will be most interesting. One of the reasons I used the wolf-dog hybrid analogy above is because it is always a crapshoot as to what behaviors you get in true wolf-dog hybrids.

Side note: quite a few wolf-dog hybrids are not. They are standard dog-dog interbreeds using dogs that look like most people thing wolves look. Lots of what I consider fraud there. When it truly is a wolf-dog hybrid, things get interesting.

One of the big problems, according to someone I used to know who testified as an expert witness in trials regarding wolf-dog hybrids, is that you really don’t know what range of behaviors you are going to get. Sometimes you get friendly and even obedient; and, sometimes you get that really not-so-nice-and-friendly behavior. Most tend to go middle, but that is a lot of ground and frankly a good bit of it is not something you want running around free in the neighborhood.

Which is where I have some issues with Colossus. They talk in the PR piece about re-introducing Dire Wolves into the world to help re-balance nature. Frankly, we are a lot better off (IMO) doing what we are doing with grey wolf populations right now. If you didn’t know, the re-introduction into Yellowstone has had some amazing benefits: deforestation blamed on acid rain turned out to be no such thing, but overgrazing by wildlife, net result forests are healthier (and that’s not the only example); wildlife herds are stronger and healthier; there have been improvements to waterways and the water systems; and, there is more.

Even with this, there are problems when you re-introduce into other, public, ranges. Yes, wolves will hunt the easiest prey, which can mean cattle and other domestic animals. There are other issues, and a lot of prejudice on both major sides of the re-introduction debate.

Thing is, grey wolves are a species of this time, with behaviors/ethology that has been studied and of which there is a reasonable (not complete) understanding. Re-introducing a species that sees (saw) humans as prey is not something I would consider a good idea unless you did so at government centers and agencies.

By the way, healthy wolves don’t see us as prey. I caveat that as sick wolves (including those with brain tumors and such) will attack humans but rarely do they decide to hunt adult humans. Children, especially infants/toddlers, well, easy prey and the latter make movements reminiscent of wounded prey, so…

Generally, unless sick or starving, wolves like to stay about a mile from us. The proper term is flight distance, as in they want to be able to turn and run away from us if we get too close. Now, they are curious creatures (and sometimes too intelligent when it comes to gate latches) and will get closer to check us out — provided they can stay under cover and get away quickly at need. It’s one reason they will creep up on camps and houses at night, when we are not moving about.

Question is: is that a trait that will be present in these pups or any future true Dire Wolf revival?

Now, a few other quick questions: Is it right and ethical to release a revived Dire Wolf into the wild? Is it right and ethical to bring back a species knowing it’s former range no longer exists and they will be in either a constrained area or in effectively zoos and similar facilities? Is it right and proper to try to force them to fit into a new niche?

These are just a few of the ethical (and moral) questions that abound right now. In most respects, my take right now lies somewhere between Sam Neill’s and Jeff Goldblum’s characters in Jurassic Park. I will also admit that knowing George RR Martin is in any way involved concerns me as he is a very reliable 180 indicator. If he is for something, thinks it’s great, etc., you need to head away from it at speed.

What is being done, and most especially WILL be done needs a lot of thought and consideration. I’ve got serious concerns even with this from a behavioral standpoint, much less others.

Thing is, we should have time to explore the ethical and moral issues as while this may be an early precursor step to restoring the Dire Wolf or any species, it is just that: an early precursor step. I hope time will be taken to explore the questions and develop a sound ethical and moral framework for such things. Given all, doubt it will but we can hope.

Meantime, we have some unique hybrids to study and hopefully learn from. And, I have to agree with Leslie, the howls are cute.

Worlds As Islands Afloat In The Sea Of Stars

There are two posts I should be working on today. The first would deal with replacing NATO and nuclear trip wires, which frankly is rather tiresome and even somewhat depressing at this point given how much I’ve had to write on the nuclear topic these last three years. The second is to build on this post advocating an X-Prize for asteroid protection and have some fun.

So, for those and other reasons, I’m going to sit back with a nice glass of old vine zinfandel, and play among the stars and hopefully take you with me. I’ve got some ideas that even now have some exploring them, but I want to throw this out there to see if some of the other ideas find a place where they can take root.

Let me start by saying Elon is very correct in focusing on Mars as a staging ground for taking humanity to the stars. For all that it is at the bottom of a gravity well, it is a well far shallower than Earth. It also offers a variety of opportunities for habitation and more importantly self-sufficient habitation (though I’m going to make a suggestion to improve that here soon).

As I’ve noted a time or two before, Earth is indeed the cradle of humanity — but crib death is still a thing. Right now, we are facing several cusps if you will. Argentina has been turned around and, barring misfortune, saved. Milei has done wonders there and my sincere hope is that Trump 2.o and team can do the same here. Things are off to a great start, but victory is not guaranteed either in terms of finances or of liberty. Remember, the enemy gets a vote and while they are off balance now, cornered rats and desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine can go sideways and hot in a heartbeat; China could be stupid enough to try to take Taiwan; Kim could have an oops with a missile (deliberately or legitimate oops); and, well, you get the picture.

Frankly, mankind needs to be off Earth and spread out in self-sufficient settlements and in large enough populations to survive anything reasonable. To listen to some of the ‘oh we shouldn’t do it crowd’ there’s no way to save humanity if the sun goes super-super-nova or Ragnarku IV comes in and blows up the whole solar system so we just shouldn’t even try. Bull Feathers.

Humanity has always been at its best, and achieved great things that also raised the standard of living across the board, when there were frontiers. Others have explained this far more eloquently and in great detail, but we are at our best when we have frontiers and challenges. Space offers us that in spades, and without many of the issues and problems that were part and parcel of our expansion on Earth.

Mars is a first stop, and Luna and other moons offer the chance for large-scale self-sufficient settlements. We should explore and pursue such. However, I would like to see some of what Dr. Yoji Kondo explored in science and science fiction (writing as Eric Kotani). His book, along with the redoubtable John Maddox Roberts, The Island Worlds, is a good place to start, and is part of the inspiration for the title of this piece.

Actually, we should start with the original book in the series Act of God but it is hard to find even used I understand. And there is good reason to start there as it sets forth an important start to space exploitation that in part inspired a suggestion or two I made in my post on X-prizing asteroid defense. For humanity to live and thrive in space, we need water. There is lots and lots of water available, if we have the will and skill to take it.

Frankly, we need to be looking at comets and more as the ability to separate water from chemical bonds on the moon may not be as easy as previously thought. I’ve been watching a number of discussions amongst those who really know what they are talking about (see Dennis Wingo on X) and we need to be looking at other sources. There does appear to be ice (to varying degrees) on Luna, Mars, and elsewhere, but it is limited. There is potentially a lot more out there in terms of comets and more that could supply space settlements for thousands of years. Even a large number of settlements. Hence, one of the scenarios for the X-prize post is if the asteroid has ice that’s quite a resource to control. Metals and such matter, but water is indeed life.

And speaking of life, I’m going to jump ahead just a bit and point out that asteroid colonies offer a far greater chance for the expansion of the human species. As noted in this post on Sex in Space, we do not appear to know if we can reproduce in space. If there indeed have not been follow-on experiments to the Frog Embryology Experiment, we need to do them and keep in mind that asteroids may offer the best solution. Also, keep in mind that experiments (SCREWBA and the like) on Earth were not done in microgravity but neutral buoyancy, and there is quite a difference between the two. Even people who know better can make mistakes on that.

Okay, back onto track I hope. Planetary bases make sense as a first step out into the solar system. Mars makes a lot of sense, and if you look at the Boring Company and other business ventures of one Elon Musk, you might notice a plan. Living on Mars will require going underground or into mountains and the like because of radiation and solar hazards. Nice that he has a proven means already in place to do that. And if you think that is luck or happenstance, I have a bridge for sale…

But, to supply planetary bases — particularly with water — is going to take something more. To truly start exploiting the resources of the solar system, we need to get out into, and settle, the asteroid belt. This was what Yoji Kondo explored in several of his books, and there are a number of ways to do it along with good reasons to do it.

Nice thing about even just plain rock asteroids: they offer the chance to either mine into them to create shelters and colonies, or they offer the ability to build (pre-fab is great) structures in place on the surface. Need extra shielding? Burrow into a large asteroid and have fun. Need gravity? Simple, trim and spin. This gives you the ability to generate gravity gradients that run from micro/zero gravity up to several times Earth gravity at need.

Why would you need it? Various industrial processes can and do make use of gravity. Also, if we find that certain levels of gravity are needed for successful reproduction in space, they/it can be provided. I really want to see this addressed before the first Mars mission as if it has not already happened (cough) we need to make sure that sex does not lead to tragedy. Nor should we be experimenting using people. That is just plain wrong, and is very easy to prevent.

There are other reasons, including food production. I suspect that aquaculture will provide a lot of protein for space colonies be they planetary or otherwise. However, mankind seems to crave other forms of protein in addition or in replacement. So, having the ability to raise such makes sense to some degree.

If you want a fuller discussion of exploitation and why bases and such are good for that, go read the full series of books. It’s only about four, but they touch on a number of interesting and important scientific theories. Metals, rare Earths, and more are out there if we can but go and claim them. Do your processing in deep space and there go your pollution worries. Heck, do them in orbit and the same holds.

From the point of view of ensuring humanity’s survival in the face of realistic issues, spreading out into the asteroid belt just makes good sense. It is far enough to mitigate some of the effects of the Sun; and, having meters to kilometers of rock between you and a Carrington Event or worse is a very good thing. Also, having humanity spread out around the complete solar system is a very good thing from a survival standpoint. It makes us much harder to kill as a species.

Also, keep in mind that asteroid bases and colonies, or even stations and extraction centers within the belt, dont have to deal with significant gravity wells. It makes it much easier to get around and to get processed materials back to Earth, Mars, or where needed. If we want to launch further out into the solar system, again, this is the place to do it.

Mars is the first step, but if you want to truly make humanity an astral species, and take Mankind to the stars, you are going to do it from the Island Worlds.

Just some thoughts to share.

Asteroid Threat? X-Prize It

Over on X, Stephen Fleming was talking about the need to get on serious asteroid defense. Quick Aside: if you are serious about space and space exploration/exploitation, you should know and follow Stephen. In response to his post and a number of comments, I made a simple suggestion: X-Prize the mission as NASA is not up to it in my opinion.

In the long run, it will be a lot less expensive and likely to drive development of some key industries — not to mention creating new and innovative technologies and applications — than trying to run it as yet another government program. Make it open ended in all the key details: launch systems undefined, method undefined, tech undefined: the only thing that should be defined is success (asteroid does not hit Earth) and if there are any secondary objectives that need to take place (exploration, detection, etc) at the same time.

Make sure that teams can win rather than an individual company. I can think of some interesting and potentially effective partnerships right off the top of my head. It also has the chance to push the launch industry along and get some real competition to Space-X underway, which would be a good thing.

Also, though it would require some long-overdue revisions to space law/treaties, give the successful company twenty-year (pick a period) rights to that asteroid or to any asteroid that poses a threat and is neutralized. Depending on the type of asteroid, there could be some nice materials to be extracted/exploited. If nothing else, novelty sales could be quite the thing. Think about it, what would you pay to own a knife or other object made from the asteroid that threatened Earth? Again, this is an opportunity to start bootstrapping orbital industry and making needed changes to space treaties/law.

Minimize the regulatory process as much as possible. Under the previous administration this was weaponized and that’s the last thing we need right now. Use this as a means to identify problems while impact odds are low, so that we have an effective and robust system/options in place for real need.

Since there is already some huffing and puffing over my contention that NASA is not up to this, let me lay out the basics. First, I have done work for NASA as a contractor on both Spacelab and later SPD/Commercial. I grew up in the 60s on NASA and can-do. Heck, Von Braun himself recruited my cousin Jimmy to join his team and was involved in those heady days. Those days, however, are gone.

Yes, NASA has demonstrated that asteroid deflection can be done. Exercise for the student: look up the full timeline on that, from when it was first proposed to actual implementation. Then look up the budget for that over those years. NASA can still do some amazing things if given enough time and massive budgets.

As part of that, consider also that NASA has not successfully designed and implemented a new man-rated launch system since the mid-70s (STS). The current Constellation/Orion/WhateverElseTheyCallIt literally costs more than a billion dollars per launch, they have launched how many (?) and I could go on but there is no way to consider it a viable and successful system. Keep in mind that most (cough) NASA programs began decades ago.

Then, as I’ve mentioned before, there is the institutional culture of no failure. Not that failure is not an option, but that if there is even a chance something won’t work perfectly in view of the public, it tends to get canned. That also ties into the perfect safety issue, which tends to stifle innovation and more. There is more, but those are going to be two huge hurdles for getting anything done through NASA.

Put anything and everything on the table as an option, from nukes (the government has a small and obscure agency that actually owns all our nukes, DoD merely “leases” them so to speak) to a space broom. Nothing off the table, nothing can’t be tried as keep in mind that the prize only pays out for success.

For planetary defense of this nature, we need fast, we need nimble, we need innovation. Government is going to be the obstacle, not the facilitator. Doing this as an X-prize makes economic sense and opens the doors of economic and scientific advancement in space exploration/exploitation.

Just my two cents…

Oh, and if you missed this wonderful bit at Instapundit a while back:

O it’s Elon this, an’ Elon that, an’ “Chuck ‘im out, the cad!”;
But it’s “Elon, please, a rocket!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.
When the rocks are lookin’ bad, my boys, the rocks are lookin’ bad,
O it’s “Save us, Mr. Elon!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.

The Flip Side

Yesterday, I talked a bit about the Pagercide (and more) committed against Hezballess by parties unknown (cough) but widely suspected to be Israel. As I noted then, it was and is a masterstroke of an op and targeted against leadership with minimal chances of collateral damage. Brilliant. Pity they reportedly had to go early.

But, as I noted yesterday, it does raise a number of questions, many of which fall under the umbrella of ‘is it a good idea to buy products, especially critical products, from an open or potential enemy country?’ It is a very important question, and I’m old enough to remember when purchasing com gear from a NATO member who wasn’t always, er, in sync with NATO and it’s operations, generated a bit of conversation — some of it in public even.

Yet, a decade or three ago we began outsourcing a lot of our manufacturing, assembly, and other work to China and other countries that were potential enemies, somewhat open enemies, or former open enemies. Now, admittedly we have a thing about rebuilding former enemies and trying to turn them into our friends. Sometimes it works; sometimes it works for a few decades; and, sometimes it really doesn’t work no matter how much one or both sides try to paper over things. China is a case of where we tried to turn a potential/semi-open enemy into a friend and bring them out of communism in the process, and in my opinion at least it has been an abject failure on both counts.

Now, Cdr. Salamander and members of the naval brigade have been jumping up and down and pointing out that buying critical products, like port cranes and more, from China was a bad idea. They have been jumping up and down for a decade, if not longer, in fact. A number of others in non-naval roles have done the same for other products in other areas. I will simply note that when I’ve tried to point out that it is a bad idea derision is about the nicest response, and they go downhill from there. Lots of DC applecarts would be upset by recognizing reality. Heck, the CCP and Winnie the Pooh really don’t even bother to hide all the money (and other considerations) flowing into American politics and politicians, even into academia and other fields.

I’m less worried about explosives in devices as I would hope that despite the massive corruption and incompetence is our major institutions such would be discovered fairly quickly. That said, it is a possibility especially if you weren’t obvious about it. There are other things that I think are a far greater possibility that our elites and major institutions are furiously ignoring.

First up, intelligence gathering. Just for fun, go look at your phone, computer, the computers in your household appliances, the computers in your car, and other delights. How many of them are made in China? Other interesting countries? How about the major components such as chips? Where were they assembled?

Now, think about how easy it is for a company like, say, Apple to monitor what you do and have on your computer? Think they can’t and don’t? You haven’t read your terms of service, and unless you take steps that destroy a lot of functionality, they can, have, and will hoover a lot of info and can share it with LE and others quite legally. It is also not that hard to activate built-in cameras and microphones, both by the manufacturer and others who are up to no good. Most every computer security person I know has tape over their camera unless in use, and some have even installed switches to control microphones — even if they take a more ‘moderate’ approach in public comments. That says a lot.

Now, add in that if you have a smart home of any type, you’ve given permission to more than one entity to monitor everything said in your home. Ostensibly it is both to ensure commands are heard and to train the system to understand what you (and others) are saying so commands can be heard and heard correctly. How hard to you think it is for other parties to gain access to that info, openly or covertly? Especially if they make the hardware or the key components of same?

Now, take it a step further. How many of those large and important cargo cranes in our ports are made in the U.S. and how many of them are made in China? On the latter, who wrote the software and what is contained in all those lines of code? Chips are incredibly complex, are you sure you know what every part of every chip does? How many other critical products, including military products, use chips or other parts made overseas? Imagine if a data packet could be sent to tap something hidden in plain sight, and shut those products down? Or simply change a charging parameter so that your lithium battery overheats?

Years ago, a friend of mine named Bryan Gibson (sadly passed now, a very good artist) came up with a concept for a story where in a futuristic society terrorists attacked by simply changing tolerances in systems by one decimal place. Imagine if auto-avoidance or terrain-following systems suddenly went to feet (or more) instead of inches of tolerance in areas where inches counted? Don’t know that it ever got finished, but it is not only a quick way to create chaos, but to cause populations to lose faith and confidence in their systems. And, with a lot of fiction, it was a warning. One we have not heeded.

Just as an aside, if you are not aware, various Western government agencies often insist on backdoors for things like encryption, other software, and even systems and networks. Sure they get proper warrants to use it, really.

Heck of a thing when you have to start with the assumption your systems are compromised from the start. Even more fun is realizing how easy it would be for someone to turn them all off or otherwise manipulate them.

Imagine that things go hot with China. What would happen if a signal were sent, or a regular signal not received, and the port cranes quit or began to operate wildly? Same to systems in power plants and other critical infrastructure? Even down to your smart refrigerator and other appliances in your home?

It’s not that far fetched, and in fact it is a cold douche of reality that it can happen. We are conditioned in many respects to giving up privacy for the convenience of our smartphones and apps, which gleefully send information on our locations, purchases, purchasing habits, and more to those who use it and sell it. Not that hard for an enemy, foreign or domestic, to tap into those data streams. Not that hard for someone ill-intentioned to use our hardware and even software against us.

Leaving aside domestic considerations, it’s beyond foolish to allow open or potential enemies to supply critical infrastructure and systems. Civilian, military, it doesn’t matter. The opportunities for intel and for system denial in time of war or crisis are far greater than most realize or will admit.

Caveat Emptor.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Walk In Space

This morning, I got to watch two commercial astronauts take a walk in space using commercially developed EVA suits via a commercially designed and built spacecraft. I can’t tell you how amazing and important this is both technologically, socially, and economically.

I’ve already seen what I believe are some bad takes. Most revolve around ‘NASA did this years ago’ or ‘bunch of rich people doing rich people things’ and I think both are tremendously wrong. Let me tell you why.

Go back and look at what it took for NASA to develop the first EVA suits, then look at what it then took to develop the EVA suits used on ISS. Now, then look at how much it took to develop same and how many years it took. Now, if you want to have a little fun, look and see if any of the developments, materials, etc. are subject to patents.

You might be surprised on that score. Private companies that develop certain materials, products, etc. can and do patent them even if the work is either for or used by NASA. There is a fascinating story behind some specialty LEDs as just one example.

So, while it has been done, look at what Space X did in a relatively short period of time (at least by NASA timelines). They designed, developed, tested, and refined an EVA suit that could be used on this flight. What’s more, the spacewalk today was intended to test that suit and that’s what was done. Simple engineering test, but with profound impact as I will be willing to bet that the suit is further refined and upgraded by the end of the year.

In “traditional” space development, the process would likely involve a beltway bandit or two for analysis, design review, etc., then a new design, then a rather lengthy development process and in a year or three (or decade) there might be a new and very expensive EVA suit produced. If you really want to know what I think of the process, think Starliner from Woeing.

In fact, rather than years I bet Space X has a refined suit ready for further use and testing by early next year. That the next spacewalk is more ambitious and will once again not only allow things to be done now, but result in further refinements and upgrades. Rapid refinements and upgrades based on actual use testing. Just like what they are doing with launch.

While we are at it, take a look at the revolution Space X has already kicked off in spacesuit design. They look like spacesuits, they fit a wide variety of people, are comfortable and easy to use (according to reports from those who have used them), and it was all done relatively rapidly and economically. Now, compare and contrast to what NASA has done and the development cycle of same. Next step: look at the time and expense developing NASA’s modular EVA suit design, that only fits a limited range of body types (in practical terms), how long it took to develop, the cost of development, and the pace of refinement on same.

Just as Space X has changed the economics of launch, they are now on the path to change the economics (and ergonomics) of the USE of space. What do you want to bet that they have also already looked ahead at some specialty suits?

So, no, this morning was not something mankind has never done before. It’s more important and paradigm shattering than that. Just as they are revolutionizing launch, this is the first step in revolutionizing the use of space. Change and testing in weeks/months, not years or decades. This will also have the ability to reduce costs as well, which further opens up space and space resource exploration and exploitation. Have spacesuit, will travel.

Nor was this morning some rich man’s indulgence. It was an engineering test and proof of concept, that will help open up space to all. It is a major step towards that future Heinlein and others envisioned where average people could go and do rather than just an elite few. The elite few are making that future possible, yes. But what they did this morning opens the door to an affordable, effective, and non-government controlled access to space, and to living and working in same.

If the governments (including ours) don’t kill Elon and Space X over X and other politics, we have a future in space. We have reliable and increasingly economical launch capability. We have just demonstrated the ability to live and work in space. Next step, habitats. I’m going to skip Starlink (and Boring) for today, though it has a role in this as well.

Welcome to a potential great future. Pity so few people will notice it, or recognize what happened this morning for what it is. For those who do get it, hang on, the ride is going to get bumpy but if we and Space X survive, we are on track to truly become a spacefaring species.

D.D. Harriman, call your office.

(Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please. Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please)

Marooned

I’ve not said a whole lot about the fiasco that is Woeing’s Starliner and the crew stranded on the ISS so far, but the cartoon I saw yesterday with Starliner as the SS Minnow and Gilligan in a space suit knocking on the hatch of the ISS was a good push. Besides, I had promised to write something in this post, and it is past time.

I’ve been worried about the Starliner effort for a while, as it has had far more problems than I would have liked from the start. Now, any new effort is going to have things crop up, as it is never as easy as people make it out to be to go from paper to actually bending metal. The best laid plans, and blue prints, rarely get everything just right; tech, particularly new or upgraded tech, rarely works as planned; and, I think the only time one sees complex systems flawlessly integrate at first try is in the movies.

Space is hard and harsh. Spacing is even harder.

That said, a lot of the basics are known and should — at this point — be well understood. The basics can, and should, be tweaked at need, but such shouldn’t be that difficult. Now, developing totally new systems, trying new things, and facing a huge amount of regulation (call it that for now) from an agency that is one of the most risk-adverse on the planet, and things can and do get interesting.

It can be done, if one has a “can-do” attitude and is willing to innovate, take risks, and even on occasion “discuss” things with said agency. Just look at Space X for what happens then.

When you have a company, however, that is “old-school” in many respects as to innovation, risk, etc.; and, said company has gone woke and turned away from what made it successful to start with, well, you get the current mess with Starliner.

Which is why I also keep hearing the voice of Martin Caidin pop up every so often. People have brought up his book and the movie Marooned in regards the current situation with the crew trapped on the ISS. A few have pointed out that he also wrote the book Cyborg which became the television series The Six Million Dollar Man. Few realize the sometimes pivotal roles he played in aviation and space over the years.

In the interest of full disclosure, Martin and I were friends and I acknowledge he was a better friend to me than I was to him. We even waged a futile effort to save the old Aviation/Space Writers Association at one point, an organization which I had joined in part because of Martin. If you cover aviation, particularly aviation accidents, you really should try to find a copy of the AWA guide to covering air accidents as it is still fairly spot on. I will also acknowledge that Martin was a bit of a character.

He was also one heck of a practical engineer who had a gift for science. For those of a nuclear war bent, you might want to notice who was heavily involved in exploring (and more) the concept of firestorms from nuclear blasts. Martin also was involved with a number of aviation advancements, as well as with historical preservation. Space also has his imprint upon it. Some of the books (and stories) he wrote were done as a way of exploring topics that certain establishments didn’t want to explore or were reluctant to explore. Fairly common in some ways for science fiction, but Martin truly ran with it.

Martin also understood that advancement (literary, scientific, or engineering) means risk. He understood calculated risk. Which is why I suspect some of his commentary on the current situation might veer a touch towards the pungent. Especially in regards the possibility of the crew being told to ride the capsule down. Marooned was fiction (and a bit of a push towards developing a rescue capability), and should stay that way.

Right now, the capsule is blocking some urgently needed real estate, namely one of two docking ports. If the software got changed to remove the remote/independent separation ability because of NASA “regulations” the situation is even more rich in irony. That said, it needs to be cleared. That said, with the cascade of failures in Starliner, I would not ride it down nor would I order anyone to ride it down. Frankly, I think the best option right now is to try to update the software and risk bricking it. If it works, port cleared and the capsule can be sent back to Earth where if it survives re-entry it can be studied. Medium case is clearing the port and adding a rather large chunk of space debris to LEO. Worst case is that it bricks and the port remains blocked. It’s blocked already, so not seeing a true downside to trying.

I’m not going to say that Woeing needs to go completely back to the drawing board, but I think they might want to consider going pretty close to it. They may also want to look at adopting the old model of operations from when they were Boeing (and successful) and putting the engineers back in charge. Radical, I know, but it is what is needed.

If they do, expect support from me and from elsewhere I suspect we might hear some clapping and some pithy comments about it taking long enough, get to it.

By the way, I would commend almost any of Martin’s fiction and non-fiction (!!) to you. Among other things, he wrote a guide to surviving nuclear war that is not only good, but also applicable to general preparedness if I remember correctly. Heck, I need to try to find a (reasonably priced) copy if I can. If you haven’t seen it, the movie Marooned is pretty good. Again, read his works as he was more of a key figure in modern aviation and space than many realize.

Also, while I’m thinking about it, Stephen Green at PJ, and both David Strom and Jazz Shaw at Hot Air are doing some really good space and science coverage. Check them out.

Congratulations SpaceX!

For all I would have loved for Starship to have hit fractional orbit and then landed in the Pacific, for a second integrated test flight it was a success. Frankly, that they pulled off the hot-stage separation is amazing, and it was not something I was counting on seeing.

As it is, it happened. All the engines lit and stayed lit until shut off on the first stage, and everything was nominal until after the hot-staging. All the engines appeared to be functioning normally on the second stage right up until the self-destruct engaged. I’m curious as to why they had that system on the second stage, and if they plan to continue to do so. The initial word seems to be the pad is good, so no major repairs or upgrades needed (we hope).

Best of all, they seem to have gotten lots of good data that are going to allow them to go in, figure things out, and make improvements to the next system. Lather, rinse, repeat. It really is the best way to develop new systems. Getting things to orbit, especially with a system significantly larger and more powerful than the Saturn V, is not easy. Just look back to the early days even before NASA, where launches rarely worked as planned. Some of the videos from the Navajo (Nevergo) and other early rockets are quite spectacular.

It didn’t end in the Pacific, but it was a good mission in terms of data. Here’s hoping that they can analyze, adapt, and try again as soon as possible — esp. if the Biden Regency will get out of the way. Earth is the cradle of humanity, and it’s past time we left the cradle.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Trojan Safe

I could go off on a nice rant at Liberty Safe, but I fear many would miss the real problem and point. The real problem and point is that it is not just Liberty Safe, but a whole array of companies and products that will turn on you in a heartbeat.

For those that missed it, Liberty Safe was told by the FBI that they had a warrant in regards a Jan 6 persecution and, apparently, without verifying that warrant or what it allowed, Liberty provided the FBI a master code so they could open, search, and seize contents of the suspect. News to many was that such a thing existed; that Liberty did not have a more rigorous process in regards warrants; and, that Liberty did not hold it’s customers or their rights in high regard.

The backlash has been enormous, and Liberty is deservedly getting pounded by outraged customers and shedding business in a hurry. I say deservedly, as the owners of the company hate guns and gun owners, and have worked to undermine both since before they bought the company. Here’s a good takedown on that. No surprise they were so eager to assist the FBI.

Thing is, they are not alone. Do you know who owns the company from which you are buying products for your safety and security? Guess what, lot of situations like this.

Have a video doorbell or, like my landlord, have it and multiple cameras around the house? How secure is that service and what rights have you given to the company you bought it from? Have a fancy electronic deadbolt that opens when you cell phone gets near it and/or locks you can control from a phone app? Again, not very secure and you may well have given the company behind it rights to your data. How often do any of us read the entire legal agreement, much less understand some of the intense legalese?

How about your car? Again, your data and records of what you do when and where are not yours. Stephen Green has a pretty good takedown on that in this article. He also correctly notes how much data your phone is sending to others, and trust me it’s a huge amount that just increases every time you add an app.

If it has to do with the safety and security of your home and family, and it’s digital, you are not as secure as you think you are. Heck, while not part of your security have you checked to see how much data your smart TV is collecting on you, or how easy it is to activate cameras and microphones remotely? TVs, tablets, and more can and have been turned on their owners.

Even mechanical locks and other items can have a master code or a master key. My trust in mechanical padlocks went out the window decades ago when a cousin who worked for a power company showed me the ring of master keys for every major (and many minor) brands of padlocks they had so they could access any property at any time for repairs or maintenance.

So, that non-digital lock or locks you got for your front door — who made it? Do you know if they have a master key for it? Do you trust them to tell you if they did?

Before you buy a safe, look at who owns the company and where they stand. Check to see if they will admit to having a master code or if you can trust them to be honest with the answer. Same goes for any major purchase.

Start demanding better, and vote with your wallet for privacy and your rights. Small or large, each purchase can make a point and even now, a difference.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Probability Cascades

Update Below

For about the last two years, I’ve semi joked about quantum probability cascades. Fact is, I wonder if I and other lightning strike/high-energy event survivors are not real-world examples of such a phenomena.

For a deep dive on quantum logic and probability, go here. You may note the rather important contributions of John von Neumann to the mix, and yes he is the person who not only made important points about computers (and AI) but also theorized about self-replicating robots.

That gets you the proper background. Now comes my very layman take, which for the purists who get the vapors is indeed very over simplified.

The human organism is an amazingly complex system, and that applies to probabilities as well. Leaving aside the existential for now, we are a walking mass of probability. While theoretically anything is possible, in each of us there are probabilities of developing cancer or other diseases, and having various systems in the body do different things. As I understand it, lots depends on energy. For example, if you have the probability (predisposition) to one or more cancers, it’s not a great idea to work with or around compounds that can increase that risk. Adds energy in a bad way.

Where probabilities are high something will happen, it’s probably going to happen. Where the probabilities are low, it’s not likely to happen absent a change in energy. Where there is such a change, usually a sudden influx of energy, you will find quantum probabilities flipping. Theoretically, as I understand it, it’s possible for high-order probabilities to flip to low-order, and it most definitely flips low-order to high.

I began to wonder about quantum probability cascades not only because of my own case, but in reading and talking about the cases of others hit by lightning or (high energy) electric shock survivors. When you talk about adding energy to a system, you can’t get much more literal. I think it a good research project for someone to take a look at all the medical and related issues that pop up for survivors. Fact is, many of the issues literally can’t be as a direct result of the event. And for all the internal burns (hard to detect and treat) and other issues, the number and range of problems seem to extend well beyond those effects.

For me, one area that makes me wonder about a quantum effect is my digestive system. In the lower part, one minor/low-probability issue is now no longer minor. Given this last week plus, I may be developing an issue or issues on the upper end. Short version is that every time I’ve eaten for the last week plus, I’ve bloated out with massive gas (along with a very acid stomach). Of itself, right now an annoyance, but just one more thing where various issues have flipped from low-order probability to high.

There’s nothing I can do about the situation as a whole, and rather than bitch and moan I try to figure things out even if such can only be done on the theoretical level. It honestly is beyond me as there are still issues with the mind including some trapping. However, I cast this out as bread on the waters in hopes that someone with a mind that fully works and is more attuned to quantum logic and probabilities than I might find it interesting and worth pursuing. Even if it gets shot down with prejudice. Either way gets the idea considered.

UPDATE 1: In talking with Snarksalot on Twitter, I need to note that not all the “flips” are going to be bad. Some are likely to be good. The difference between “good” and “bad” and what trips them one way or another is yet another issue for discussion and investigation.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.