COVID-19 6Apr20

The word of the day remains data. As in why do we not have more data available. Some of it has long been promised, and is still not out there.

On Twitter, Scott Adams is on a tear over the lack of promised data on equipment. As in who has what PPE, how much is being used, and who doesn’t have it and needs it. That is data that has been promised, but not delivered.

For me, I am looking for data on spread rate as a function of population density; total cases as a function of population density; ICU and ICU/ventilator use as a function of population density (and also broken down by age, sex, and other factors); data on asymptomatic spread including the range of time this occurs given previous estimates ranged from a week to a month; and better data on superspreaders. Among other things.

Right now, it is clear that the IHME-UW model is flawed. Flawed model plus bad data in the beginning means bad choices and actions. Efforts to correct the model are still encountering problems.

But, if we had good data it can be analyzed outside the model for better decisions. When the data is not released, it is not a good sign.

As for why the county-by-county data is needed? That is both how you get plans based on local conditions, and because it is how most quarantine laws are set up: the counties have the authority to act in the best interest of the local community. This gets pointed out by Marco Rubio to a clueless member of the media. The laws, built on practical experience, were put in place because it was known that a one-size-fits-all approach was not good for controlling disease.

The good news of the day is that even with the latest model clearly still flawed, it shows deaths dropping, significantly. There will be two immediate responses to this: mitigation works and we panicked for nothing. Both are wrong, and unhelpful. Frankly, my best guess right now is that both are right. Unless there is yet other data being withheld, it was both less a threat than projected and mitigation does indeed work. Everyone in masks may have worked as well or better, but there is no way to know that for sure.

Do I think we are not being told everything? Yes. Do we need to know all of it? Eventually. We do deserve to have a better understanding of why the decision was made to nuke the economy and damage the Constitution. We also need to take steps to ensure the overreach does not happen again, but to do so in a responsible manner also required this information.

I suspect (hope) there is a lot more going on that we are not being told.

I want to end on a more positive note. Take the time to go read this wonderful, brutal, truthful, and accurate fisking of a Chinese official spouting propaganda. Tim Blair is a master of the fisk, and it shows in this shredding of the narrative. Bravo, Sir. Bravo.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

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As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)


Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 5Apr20

COVID-19 4Apr20

COVID-19 3Apr20

COVID-19 2Apr20

COVID-19 1Apr20

COVID-19 31Mar20

COVID-19 30Mar20

COVID-19 29Mar20

COVID-19 28Mar20

COVID-19 27Mar20

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20


COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

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