Back on April 29, I ended the daily COVID-19 updates (last one here with links to previous). One of the reasons I cited was that the numbers coming from the government (really, governments everywhere) were meaningless. “Right now, the numbers are meaningless, unreliable, and being used to stoke panic and push agendas. ”
John Hinderaker at Powerline has a very good post up on the “confusion” and how it is largely deliberate. He provides examples of various health officials deliberately putting out false and misleading data. I really do wish I thought we would see more people putting this type information out, along with how the media is willfully and deliberately putting out false and misleading data. For just one example, look at the daily death tolls, as the deaths reported that day did not all happen that day, but potentially even weeks ago as there is a reporting lag since none of our health systems are set up for immediate notifications.
Also, take the hospitalizations and ventilator usage with a large grain of salt. Quite a few outlets push gross numbers, rather than noting the breakdown between non-COVID usage versus COVID usage of each. The same is going on with the deaths attributed to COVID-19. Many deaths are being reported as COVID-19 when the person died with the disease rather than from it (cough, motorcycle crash, cough). There are some researchers going through the death certificates in various locations to try to work up accurate numbers which are a good guide to developing real science-based policy and reducing the panic the media and bureaucracy are deliberately and maliciously stoking.
Meantime, this article on vitamin D (D3 specifically) is well worth the read. This article is about the continuing efforts of the FDA to block medical technology, particularly related to COVID testing. Keep in mind that it was the CDC and FDA that blocked efforts on testing, treatment, and more from the start, hamstringing efforts to contain, control, and treat. See the COVID updates and other articles here for more info. This article on the loss of trust in government and our so-called experts and betters gets into what it will mean in political and social terms, and is also well worth the read. Hat tip to Instapundit for these articles.
More to come, and hope you enjoy this food for thought today.
When we look back on this event, the initial botched response by the CDC, and the absolute failure of testing coming from the actions of the CDC and FDA, should rightly take center stage. Testing is essential to identify, to develop treatments, and to limit the spread. To this day, the FDA and CDC continue to erect stonewall after stonewall to efforts to that would end this ordeal.
In my book, the failure of testing — and to get us the millions of tests we need both for the disease and for the antibodies — is the single largest failure of the response. With proper testing, you can scale responses to an appropriate degree for the situation, instead of slamming a “one size fits all” approach to the situation. With proper testing, you can clear those who are immune to return to work, along with those who are not a major risk. With proper testing and reporting, you can get critical supplies to where they are needed most, and even get them there ahead of the time of most urgent need.
Yet, bureaucratic roadblocks keep getting raised to effective, efficient, and desperately needed testing. It truly begs a question: Why?
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
If you need another reminder on why you should not go to the mainstream media for accurate and useful information, go read this. Right now, the media is the greatest threat to your health and safety, and those you love, out there.
Nor have the CDC, FDA, and NIH covered themselves with glory. The latest take down on how they got us in the position we are in is here. Some may chide me for attacking them, and I will admit that there are some good, very good, people working there. However, they are political agencies, not scientific or medical at this point. More on that in a moment.
Thanks to President Trump, who has to continually play whack-a-mole with the bureaucrats, a number of unnecessary regulations have been pulled out of the way. As such, there are new treatments coming on line, and testing is expanding in quantity and quality as the power of the American free enterprise system is harnessed to meet the challenges of COVID-19. Get the bureaucrats out of the way, and there is no challenge we can’t face.
In news not likely to be covered widely in the mainstream media, Dr. Didier Raoult and colleagues have published a second paper on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat COVID-19. Read the paper here, and when politicians say it won’t work and they make it illegal to prescribe, ask them why when three (more at this point I think) studies show it works.
I was going to talk about vaccines and protein crystallization today, but the number of conspiracy theories about the pharmaceutical industry, while not deserving a reply, do give me a springboard to talk about the need to massively overhaul the FDA. This is something that has been bitterly resisted by the FDA, to the point of scorched earth, and by certain politicians with a vested interest. What vested interest? Go look up the Epi-Pen scandal and note but one politician who had a vested interest. They are not alone.
As a liaison to the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) many years ago, I had the chance to meet one person named head of the FDA with a mandate from the then President to reform the agency, including updating the drug approval process. Sadly, they were not successful and what happened there is why I use the terms ‘bitterly opposed’ and ‘scorched earth.’
The first time I worked as a contractor for NASA, one of the scientific investigations that I came to learn a lot about involved protein crystallography for new drug development. Short version for today, if you can grow the right form of a given protein, it allows you to develop drugs that will bind with/act on it and not anything else. This greatly reduces the chance of side effects and makes for a more effective drug.
At that time, it took a minimum of five years and an average of $400 million to get through the FDA process. If, in the course of going through that process, you found a way to improve the drug, you had to start completely over again. By the end of my second time as a contractor for NASA, the cost had grown to $800 million.
Keep in mind, this is not the cost of research and development. This is just the cost to go through the FDA new drug approval process. I’m honestly scared to see how much the average cost is now, or how many years it takes. Means of improving the testing, and speeding the process up, have been known for years, but again were and are bitterly resisted by the FDA. These methods in no way impaired the safety of the public.
So, when you see drugs costing hundreds or thousands of dollars; or, you see drugs that can work on multiple diseases or conditions but are not FDA approved for them, this cost is why they are expensive and often not approved for other uses even when known to be safe and effective. Unless something has drastically changed (doubtful), you have to go through a process costing hundreds of millions of dollars, and lasting years, for each and every disease/condition.
Which is why even though Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine was proven effective against coronaviruses in 2005 (and ignored by the CDC), it was not approved for it. What company is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on approval when it has no realistic chance of a return on it’s investment.
Before I forget, on a similar topic, I worked with a researcher (couple actually) who developed a treatment that reversed paralysis from spinal injury, every time. He demonstrated it in animals repeatedly, and it worked if he could get to them within about 36 hours. The treatment prevented the formation of scar tissue in the spinal cord track that would block the regrowth of nerves, as they can and do regenerate if there is a pathway. When he tried to get approval from the FDA to do human trials, they said it had to be proven on patients who already were paralyzed from spinal injury – the people who already had scar tissue and on whom the treatment was unlikely to work. The FDA’s take was that no matter the animal studies, if it wouldn’t work on patients on whom it was almost impossible to work, then it was a no go. Last I heard, he was trying it there way even though there was almost no chance of success.
Thus ends today’s lecture. I really do want to talk more about protein crystallography, structure-based drug design, vaccines, and related topics. I find them fascinating, and they do have quite a bit of relevance to what is happening right now. That said, I intend to go have such fun as I can have in unpaid lockdown.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
Yes, the number of cases in the U.S. has gone up. Yesterday it was 2,952 when I snapped the shot of the graphic. This morning, it is 3,774. BFD.
The number is going to rise, and continue to rise. That’s a given since the Chinese government lied, covered-up, and did all it could — up to refusing to allow CDC and WHO experts to help — to screw up anyone having a truly effective response.
As for one of the other reasons for slowing the rate we discussed yesterday, here’s some good news: Moderna Therapeutics has shipped a prototype vaccine for clinical trials. While the article says in April, there are other reports this morning that the trial could start as early as this week in Seattle.
Right now there is a lot of chest thumping and posturing on social media by those who claim that this is all an overreaction, un-American (and they do have some valid points from a civil-liberties/libertarian point of view), unneeded, etc. You know what? I hope that four weeks from now you can still crow that it was all overblown and unneeded, as that is the historical way of your kind. I hope that you did not get it, and worse yet share it with parents, grandparents, friends, and others who might not have the survivability you do. I hope you can posture and strut to your heart’s content, as I will simply be happy that we did get ahead of it even if there is no way to prove that it was the steps taken (hard to prove a negative).
Meantime, for those that can and do think rather than strut and posture, here is some additional food for thought.
First, this pandemic has shown that the CDC and FDA need significant reform and modernization, and to be trimmed back to focus on their core missions. In addition, we need to remove yet more regulations that are blocking healthcare innovation and expansion. Excessive regulation is quite literally killing us.
Second, a couple of weeks ago I said that Europe had already fallen given the commitment to open borders (thank you Merkel). Belatedly, they are doing what they should have done then, well after the horses are gone and out of sight.
Third, given the efforts by the Chinese government to blame us for COVID-19 to deflect from their own abysmal failures and liabilities; and, because of their semi-official threats to cut off our medical supplies, I have a modest proposal for the President. The Trump Doctrine calls for the use of economics for leverage and as a form of warfare. So, as part of the efforts I would encourage you to put forth legislation and executive orders to repeal and remove regulatory roadblocks to bringing as much production, development and exploitation of resources, logistics, and related factors to the U.S. Further, I would urge that tax and other incentives be given to those companies who move production that can’t readily be done in the U.S. out of China and to specially designated countries or zones that have proven their friendship with the U.S. in SE Asia and elsewhere in the world including portions of Eastern Europe. Those companies that refuse to move production and other activities out of China should have to face the loss of tax incentives and other direct costs for not so doing. China was brittle before, and is even more so now. Threaten us? Time to tap hard to see how brittle they are, and even perhaps to smash.
Fourth, while not directly related to COVID-19, I suspect strongly that the EU is done. How soon it comes apart is debatable, but it could happen before the end of this year. Germany has shown that its leadership and commitment to living up to the requirements of the EU, such as helping Italy, just aren’t up to it. Resentment is high in every EU country, particularly within the public. Italy rightly believes that Germany and the EU have abandoned them, and there are already some surprisingly high-level open talk about if staying in the EU is a good idea. On the heels of Brexit, such talk is not to be taken lightly.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Not a lot of time this morning, will see what I can do this afternoon or for tomorrow. Yes, more cases and one more death here. As before, if this is not contained it will be because of the bureaucracy, case in point is this lab at the CDC. Also, the CDC still won’t allow the use of a proven and more efficient test because that system has not been through the full FDA approval process, which can take years. Both the CDC and the FDA have needed serious overhaul for a couple of decades now, mayhaps that will happen now.
If you are a first responder, particularly one on the West Coast but anywhere, go to as high a level of protocols as your department will allow. Why? Here’s why (and one wonders about the Washington State public health organization’s competence).
For the rest of us, the best defense is to wash your hands and go to strict flu protocol.
As always:
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not according to WHO, but most everyone else is saying yes, it is. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
