Politics – The Laughing Wolf

Barksdale And Drones

First, before you do anything else, go read this very good post by Leslie over at Legal Insurrection. She covers a lot and makes a number of very good points. That said, I want to chime in with a few thoughts.

First up, there appears to be some leadership issues. Pete has been fairly clear on the need to develop anti-drone strategies and to be creative in so doing. In fact, some interesting concepts are being tried and actually potentially fielded. Yet, at the same time, the response to a clear and present danger is to monitor, try to jam, and apparently to wring hands and cry how nothing works. Personal opinion, that’s the time to let troops with trap and skeet experience go to work in downing as many as possible.

It would be nice to also to be able to track back the control signals for the drones to determine point of origin. Jamming is well and good, but there’s another phase that seems to be lacking in the response. Fact is, we need robust, capable mobile detection systems that will facilitate a rapid identification of the origin of the signals and allow said site to be neutralized. Ideally, getting those behind the control alive and with equipment intact for analysis, but given that this is a major nuclear base we need to be able to identify and then go in hard and FAST.

Also, question for the audience: Do you think China is the only country or entity that has been buying land near major military installations? If so, why do you think that?

We really do need to rethink the triad and our full posture. We also need to get serious about drones and drone defense, as dithering and hand-wringing is only going to see our aircraft fleet mangled wreckage. Drones require being pro-active, and that is the antithesis of what has been drilled into most military leadership for a while now.

Just some thoughts to share.

If you’ve not been here before, take a moment to scroll up or down, and check out some of my other content. It ranges from my upcoming religious pilgrimage to practical preparedness. Hope you will check it out.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The LaGuardia Tragedy

What happened with the CRJ and the fire truck at LaGuardia was indeed a tragedy, and a preventable one. Not necessarily for the reasons many of the people trying to score political points off the blood of the tragedy are expounding though.

First, let set some basic terms and information that are needed to understand the situation. The FAA and the Transportation Administration control aviation in the U.S. You have flight control, which is the part of the operation that controls and monitors flights in progress. You have departure control which is concerned with takeoff and departure operations. You have landing control, which is responsible for the last part of the flight and landing. You then have ground control, which is responsible for general movement on the ground.

Depending on circumstances, these can all be different people (and some companies even have their own ops people at airports, such as caterers, cargo companies, etc) or they can all be one person. Depends on a number of factors, with the largest being the size of the airport and the amount of traffic. What a lot of people don’t like to talk about is that it also depends on staffing, which started to be an issue in the mid-2000s. There are actually several reasons (no matter what the yard signs say, there are few simplistic problems and no simplistic solutions) and they include training issues, technology issues, and workload.

A lot of this has been discussed in regards the DC crash (covered here, feel free to hit the search button). The technology of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system is beyond antiquated, as are a number of the collision avoidance systems. In the wake of DC, there was a lot of talk about fixing that right now, and people like Elon and others who know tech volunteered to help. Haven’t heard a word about that since.

Would love an update on what’s being done, or not, and why. There are in fact straightforward solutions using Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technology that would vastly improve both flight control and approach/departure control. In the past, one of the biggest stumbling blocks was Congress, and some members of the bureaucracy, as such projects did not grease the right hands or flow to the right districts. It would be nice to get a DOGE (or a Data Republican) audit of all that has been pledged and spent on this from 2000 onwards since a lot of it just seems to me to have disappeared.

Congress has also been a huge problem with the staffing issue, particularly the Oklahoma delegation of Congresscritters. Right now, the FAA school for controllers is in Oklahoma; it can’t handle the load it has much less train the numbers of people needed; and, that delegation has blocked every effort to open other FAA schools elsewhere. Just a suggestion, but take your BP meds before you dig into this and other ways Congress has blocked pretty much all efforts to fix the staffing problem.

And it is a huge problem. Controllers, particularly approach/departure/ground, can find themselves working six days a week with mandatory overtime. Before passing judgement, or wallowing in the blood of the tragedy to make points for your side (what ever that may be) check out how long the controller in this case had been working. Check out the last time he had any realistic time off. Now, add in antiquated tech that hinders detection of problems rather than warning of them, and add in effectively what looks to be about three emergency/potential emergencies he’s juggling at once.

This is a life that just ended in most respects. The life he had is gone, and two people are dead and more injured because he was overworked and without help or support from his leadership including Congress. Pray for him, as he is going to need those prayers, even as you pray for the souls of the dead and for the injured. And before you jump on him or to make points, listen to the exchange afterwards, where he says he made a mistake (one he tried desperately to stop BTW) and is comforted by a pilot who told him he did the best he could. And he did, in a system that failed him, and us.

As with the DC crash there is plenty of blame to go around. My ire is focused a good bit on Congress, but more than one administration has not taken transportation, and reform/improvement of the FAA and ATC system seriously. I hope the current administration will take it seriously and that Sec. Duffy will step up and be the leader needed to meet this challenge. He talked good game after DC, and I would like to see some walk to go with the talk. If Congress or others are trying to play their usual games, let’s take the gloves off and do what’s needed before more are killed and more lives destroyed. Again, please do pray for that controller, he needs them.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Precision Imprecision

It is fair to say that President Trump is known for his bombast and often imprecise wording. We all make mistakes with such, and it doesn’t help that most of his overly credentialed critics think him an ignorant buffoon. Yet, he can and does get very precise in his wording, and I would argue very deliberately precise in his imprecision. When he does so, there is usually a reason (often confounding opponents and critics).

One of the latest posts by the President is a good example of such. In it, he discusses negotiations with Iran and the decision to not launch any military strikes against power plants and energy infrastructure.

Two things jumped out at me immediately. First, the use of “country of Iran” in lieu of anything else. Not the current government, not the IRGC acting as the current government, but the “country” of Iran. I’m wondering if it doesn’t signal possible talks with the future government of Iran, who need that infrastructure in place if they are to rebuild. There have already been some pleas from citizens inside Iran begging Trump not to go after the power plants, and I strongly suspect the Pahlavi family has expressed similar concerns to the administration.

Which also ties in neatly to something I saw really start popping up yesterday about the need for boots on the ground in Iran. Not American boots, not Israeli boots, but Iranian boots — from outside Iran. Given that some affiliated with the Pahlavi camp have indicated a possible return to Iran within thirty days, it would make some sense. It would also be the best option from many perspectives to dealing with the remnants of the mad mullahs and the IRGC. It might also be one of the factors in Bessent’s 50 days of high gas prices prediction.

Second, I noticed the very specific list of things that would not be hit. Power plants and the grid. I also noticed quite a few posts popping up on X where the author claimed no military strikes for five days. This is a rather transparent lie. First, as soon as there is any military strike, such as sinking Iranian fast boats and others attacking or threatening ships in the straights, they can and will scream that Trump broke his word — and the sad fact is that too many people will fall for that. Low-information types and the TDS victims will go for it without thought. Second, the smarter ones will argue that any strike on oil collection, refinement, transport, etc. will be a violation of his word and that is likely to work on some mid-level types.

Thing is, I think Trump is good with both of those. It is amazing how many people are being exposed as paid shills and/or outright liars since the start of his administration. The ripping off of masks personal and organizational is indeed enlightening, and the damage done to once respected individuals, institutions, and brands really hasn’t registered yet, particularly with the participants.

The next thirty (fifty?) days will be interesting. I’m hoping for good interesting, as a world without the mad mullahs and their ilk is likely to be a much better and more peaceful place. Or, at least one where good and decent people can have a chance to rebuild lives and even civilization. Let us hope for the best.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Trumping Iran

A very good read, as usual. I will join the chorus of those pointing out we have no vested interest in opening the Straights of Hormuz as our oil and such doesn’t flow through it. Been funny watching certain people and governments tumble to the fact we have no need and no desire to cover them this time. If they won’t step up, we will do what we need to for our purposes, but I doubt we will do any more than that. More thoughts on that after the weekend I hope. Have a Blessed weekend and stay safe.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Choke Points

There is a lot going on in the world right now, and I find it interesting how many people don’t get some of the layers involved. For all that Venezuela and Iran (and other actions) had a specific geographical focus, what lay behind each is multi-layered and aimed at hitting as many targets with one action as possible.

For example, Venezuela also hurt China on several fronts, and even Iran on more than one front. Cuba is also being taken out by the action(s), and has apparently event talked with the administration about change.

Which makes this thread by John Konrad over on X very interesting food for thought. Many of the actions by Trump and the administration that people have not understood, or in the case of certain politicians and pundits have deliberately pretended not to understand, all come together in interesting ways. I will also note that a hallmark of this administration is hitting as many targets with one action as possible. This is not an accident or happenstance, but very deliberate.

More to come, but check out John’s thread and chew on things a bit. More to come.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Institutional Capture And Discourse

Over on X, there has been quite a tempest over the doxxing of a writer who goes by the nom-de-plume of Cynical Publius. He writes under that name at American Greatness and also holds forth on X. He uses a pseudonym because his (now former) job and general safety required it. Short version is he is a former military officer who has seen the elephant and makes suggestions based on reality as opposed to what is being passed around DC.

Recently, he joined Pete in suggesting that the War Colleges need some review and revamping (gasp! The Cad!). This led to some interesting exchanges with Radio Free Tom, who until recently was a part of that system (and in my opinion proof positive that said system needs major and serious reform starting with the removal of all the over-credentialed idiots like Tom who are a serious part of why we haven’t won a war in decades). However, in this case, it led to a rather nasty bit of politics in which Brad Duplessis, Ryan Evans, and War on The Rocks (no, no links to them, a single white feather to every individual associated with WOTR would be far more appropriate) doxxed Cynical Publius. I find it fascinating that they seem genuinely surprised there was blowback.

And there has been some substantial blowback, including a rather detailed examination of how WOTR has been captured by the swamp, with (one assumes) the willing help of Ryan Evans. For those interested, start here with Data Republican’s detailed exam with receipts; then read this by John Konrad on X (and then read some of his other articles on the situation); and, then, while it is not directly related (then again…) this article on pointing out mistakes and why the system can’t handle honest mistake fixing. Yes, I do think it applies to the doxxing and the surprise at the blowback. While I’m thinking about it, I commend to one and all Matthew Pierce’s work on persuasibility. I doubt Brad and Ryan will appreciate it, as I strongly suspect that their thoughts on CP and why he deserved harm (doxxing is ALWAYS intended to inflict harm) is a religious issue for them per the Doctrine of Persuasibility. It is a matter of faith that they are right and proper and everyone else is wrong, and no mere facts will alter that belief.

WOTR started as something good and needed; but, it has sunk into the mire and bears no resemblance to its former glory. It went rather rapidly from an outside and fresh perspective admired and respected by the troops, to being an arm of the establishment in amazingly rapid time. It is no longer worth time and I’ve even started unfollowing people on X who follow it for any reason. It, and all those behind it, need to shunned, shamed, and deprived of engagement (and the funds that come from such). The swamp will look after its own, so I suspect the founders and even any employees will find employment elsewhere at need.

Long-time readers may know, but back under Reagan I was a small part of a very large “Kitchen Cabinet” that advised him on any number of subjects. My area involved the Soviet Union and in particular their space and related military efforts — an area where he rightly had concerns about the intel and analysis coming from official sources. I do think Reagan had the largest Kitchen Cabinet of any modern President, though I do wonder if Trump might have something similar. I will simply warn them that low profile, and pseudonyms and such, are wise, as official DC does take note.

It was amazing how fast doors slammed shut after Reagan left office, and even where lines of communications stayed open they were also dark. Probably didn’t help that someone I worked with told a sitting President to “Go Bleep Yourself” Thing is, I’ve met a number of DC power players and a lot of wanna-be power players. Most of them were not worth a bucket of warm spit and have morals to make an alley cat seem virtuous and gentle. I’ve actually been thankful more than once that I did not get swept up in that game, as I’ve kept at least a small bit of virtue, honor, and integrity as a result. Maybe not much, but at least some.

It is easy to lose yourself in DC. The Swamp, The Blob, whatever you want to call it is ravenous and dedicated entirely to protecting itself and not the Republic. It can happen amazingly quickly. Looking at what’s happened here makes me glad that very few know who I am or what I’ve done. It also further reinforces that the new path I’m on is the right one for me. I’d far rather write about history and faith than politics, and have no need to secure my computer against intrusion (and interesting additions) quite as much.

As for Mr. Cynical Publius, I don’t really know him save through his work. The doxxing was a malicious and vicious act without honor or integrity in my book. I will say that if he gets this way, I’m glad to share coffee (or something stronger) with him (or Infantry Dort for that matter) and chat a bit. I will say that if Brad or Ryan were to show up, I would be most happy to discuss the concept of repentance and such with them.

Now, it is time to get back to “work” and the seminary class. Trying to get ahead a bit before going on the pilgrimage. So, more soon. Hopefully something fun that regular readers will enjoy. We will see, as sadly this year of 2026 seems determined to be interesting.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Overton, Windows, Lists

X is a fun thing to watch some days. Not read, watch. There are patterns in the data flow, and it is an odd combination of annoying and amusing to watch when the word — and payments for same — goes out. And, yes, it is clear that quite a few of the influencer-types are bought and paid for.

Now, I’m not one of them. Not enough followers and such to get the status that gets the sweet, sweet engagement bucks, much less the under-the-table payments that go to those of easily negotiable virtue. While one is tempted to call them a five-letter name (six if you go plural) for participants in the second-oldest profession (politics truly is the oldest), such would be a serious slander of those (by comparison) relatively honest and reliable providers of various services involving passions of the flesh. Such people are by comparison honorable and possessed of an integrity far beyond the grifter/groyper/influencer class. Me, I’d rather be poor and dependent upon your kindness and generosity than to sell myself in such a way. Besides, even though it would be in service to the oldest profession, I look horrible in a miniskirt and crop top.

But, there are apparently plenty willing to do so. It is indeed fun some days to see how many left and allegedly-far-right are posting almost identical posts. Sometimes it is literally the same post, though one could not be faulted for suspecting most of those accounts are bots. What’s fun though is to see something strikingly similar in wording in the ‘big-name’ accounts left and allegedly far-right.

It’s happened twice recently in terms of the war with Iran. The sinking of the Iranian frigate was the first such incident, with the progressive left and the allegedly-right-wing decrying in very similar terms (and even wording) claiming that it was a violation of the rules of war. That is, of course, complete and utter hooey. But, the truth rarely matters (and is even a hindrance) when a particular narrative is being pushed by interesting people. Go see the work by Data Republican and others for detailed information on the people and funding behind it. It is a large amount of money, and what is scary is how much of it appears to be coming from defrauding the U.S. taxpayer.

The most recent version is “Lobstergate” wherein Pete Hegseth was once again targeted by the progressive left and the allegedly-right-wing group of grifters, groypers, and ‘influencers.’ Funny thing is, the attacks on Pete have convinced me of two things: he is indeed the right man for the job, and he scares the everliving out of some interesting and powerful people.

In the latest attempt to get him removed, the campaign went after the fact that the DoW (though it was phrased as if Pete himself had done the purchasing) bought lobster, crab, and steak in large and expensive amounts. Extravagant amounts with careful implication that it was for him and other senior officials. Note the implied, and how it was (and is) utilized in the campaign of lies.

Fact is, it is a long-standing tradition (here’s a hint, it happened under Clinton and Obama and was fine then) to give deployed troops and others a good ‘surf-and-turf’ meal once a week. It is also a tradition to give such a meal to those about to go into harms way. I’ve very much appreciated those putting up photos showing what civilians think is being served versus what the military actually provides (not even close to the same).

Have to admit, the first time I hit a military steak that had to be served well-done (food safety don’t you know) it was a bit of a shock. Under the circumstances, however, it was delicious even with fat and gristle. Since I can’t be charged, when I was with Cooking with the Troops I refused to cook the steaks we did well-done, and was grateful an Army cook backed me up in my lie about residual cooking one time. Story for another day.

What is most interesting about ‘Lobstergate” is the number of people who know very good and well about the tradition and are lying anyway, including some who served. Then again, I was not surprised one of them was a former Congresscritter who got his one term via running as a veteran (and is a huge Blue Falcon). The narrative is getting pushback online, but not nearly enough on broadcast outlets with CNN once again pushing a lie.

Nor is that CNNs only bit of propaganda this week. Look at their framing of the terrorist attack in NYC. Two jihadis throw explosive devices at people who are ‘far right’ according to CNN and the Associated Propaganda (AP)(love that name, stealing it) news, and almost all media frames it as an attack by the people that the terrorists attempted to murder on NYCs new mayor. CNN was roasted for one of the worst, ham-handed, attempts at such, and is still getting justifiably dragged over it.

Interesting thing is, all these efforts are being done for multiple reasons including shifting the Overton Windows in regards public perception. In the case of the sinking, the attempted shift is to change the laws and perceptions of war such that we can’t sink our enemies. In the case of ‘Lobstergate’ is yet another effort to shift the window to limit the scope and power of the SecWar in the future, even as it attempts to smear Pete as incompetent. In the third case, it is to shift the window towards attacks in the U.S. being both legitimate and the result of right-wing-extremism. While thinking about this, note that every politician or group outside of the far-left progressives is now identified as ‘right-wing’ or more likely ‘extreme-right-wing’ by corporate media such as AP, Reuters, CNN, etc.

Over on X, John Konrad has a very good post up on what is going on and the need to shift the window(s) back to the right. There is some very good food for thought in there, and worth the read to get to.

While it is clear that Journ-O-List ver. XX? is in play, it is also clear that a lot of money is being spent to push not just these narratives to the public, but the Overton Windows associated with them as far to the left as possible. All the more reason I don’t trust corporate media on any reporting, and a reminder of why I want to see the Save Act passed even if it means gutting Congressional alleged-leadership. I also want to see a speaking filibuster back and the end of the illegal, un-Constitutional, and cowardly blue slip practice. Probably a pipe dream, but one can hope.

Oh, and for the record, I think overall the Air Force has the best chow; Navy can come in a close second (depends on the mess); and, the Army is third. I will also say that when I was doing embeds in Iraq, I loved when the people working the chow halls (DFAC, whatever) were allowed to do their native dishes as a special event/treat. Given how many were Malay, Indonesian, etc. you got some amazingly good food though some could take the top of your head off with the heat. Beat the heck out of some of the regular, okay-at-best, chow.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Surprise, Response

The previous post reminded me of one I’ve needed to do for a while. Some of the posts I do are to share knowledge and experience, some to share humor or joy, and some to provoke some thought. Especially if I’m not sure that things are being done and I want to push things while I am here to push them. On the latter, my concerns about the ability of humans to reproduce in space and microgravity are a good example, as I want to be sure it is something being looked at as we urgently need permanent settlements off this glorious mudball ASAP.

Right now, I want to talk a bit about command and control in the face of surprise. It is something I really hope is being looked at by Pete and company as they are taking care of a lot of things; and by the administration from a higher level. In particular, I want to look at nuclear command and control in the current environment.

A lot of our current system traces back to the pre-SAC days when Nightwatch was in Maryland and it was estimated we could have hours of notice. Even as that shrunk down, we’ve kept a lot of the basic premises past what I consider the best-buy date. As a result, I think we really, really, need to look at things and try to come up with something new.

Without going into too much detail (much less things that should not be talked about openly) our current system presumes something on the order of 30-minutes to an hour of warning of a surprise attack on the U.S. SecWar is the second man to the President for all intents and purposes, and is either with POTUS or in touch with him. POTUS is briefed on what is going on, confidence in the intel, etc. and uses the current iteration of the Single (Strategic) Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) to order a response to the situation.

As we’ve discussed on here before in the “shall we play the game” category, the response is boiled down to a short (less than 200 characters) message that is then sent to the National Military Communications Center (NMCC) at the Pentagon who then re-codes it after confirmation, and sends it out to SAC (new version) and some other interested parties such as the Navy TACOMO planes. SAC then re-codes the order (after confirmation) and sends it out to it’s audience.

All well and good, and the two-man rule applies throughout. Well, all well and good if there is time. Are there alternatives if POTUS isn’t available or such? I’m told yes, though I have no details. Nor do I want them.

The thirty-minute window was predicated on detecting Soviet missiles being launched. Flight time from there to here is roughly thirty minutes. If we saw them fueling (Soviets/Russians use a lot of liquid-fueled ICBMs), longer period for response. That was sufficient: thirty or forty years ago.

Even twenty years ago, depressed trajectory shots from subs not too far off the coast cut that time from detection to impact to about fifteen minutes. The assurances the subs couldn’t get that close, and would be detected if they did, were deafening, though reminding me a bit of toddlers drumming their feet and yelling while having their fingers in their ears.

Today, we have massive container ships plying the waters of our country. If I can figure how to put one or more land-attack cruise missiles into a container for launch, I guarantee you others have as well. When you look at more modern drones, boy howdy are you talking the ability to get things in the air and to target with little or no detection. Iran has the capability (or did) and China has been openly experimenting with it. For all the open, think iceberg and know others have as well, a lot of others.

Thing is, if you launch like that from say a bay (and major trade route) near a capital city, you are potentially talking as little as five minutes from launch to impact. By the time the launch alert (if launch is even detected by anyone other than direct observers) gets to the right people in the military, you already have impact.

One also needs to factor in surface attack. Our borders were incredibly porous for way too long, and it is suspected that a lot more than people and drugs could have made it through. Small delivery van making the rounds in DC, passing in front of the White House, Congress, Pentagon…

I really, really do hope someone is looking at this, and looking to update the system. What we have now was good enough maybe ten years ago. Now, however… Think we need to rethink a number of things including designated survivors. I hope the world is about to get a lot more peaceful; but, you never plan for best case/most optimistic case. I will even go so far as to say we need some new designated survival centers as Camp David, Mount Weather, etc. are too well known.

Just a thought.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Dear Bill

Not sure if you will get this letter, but if it can get through to Lance Corporal Bill J. Stelpflug, USMC, I would appreciate it. I don’t have his forwarding address, the last address I have for him was at the Marine Barracks in Beirut, and I would like him to know a few things that have been going on.

First, an apology. I used to write you every year on the anniversary, but many of those notes were lost in various attacks on hosting providers by the very people who attacked the barracks. It’s my bad for not staying on top of things, and I do apologize for it.

I heard from your mother many years back, right when I first began writing to you. I wanted to keep your memory alive, in a time where so many seemed determined to forget and/or move on. She was so happy to see me write to you, and wrote to me and we talked a bit.

Your sister was happily married and had started a family. You’ll be glad to know we never did date, though I was smitten with her. I never did share those pictures I took of her in my improvised studio with her or anyone, as I screwed them up. I was still learning then, and it was a ‘learning experience’ of which I was ashamed. I might could rescue the shots these days in digital, and might try if I could give them to her. I was so happy to learn she was happy and thriving, though she and your brothers (and your parents) missed you terribly.

I enjoyed chatting with your mom, and catching up. It was a chance to remember simpler times, joyful and beautiful times. She was (is, I hope) a nice and dear lady.

My Dad was the Marine, and I was something else; but, what happened at the Barracks hit hard for us both. Not sure it was much, or did much good, but never missed a chance to try to poke the mad mullahs in the eye (or hit lower) if I got the chance. Nor did I miss a chance to recommend that others do so officially and unofficially.

Today, the tab the mullahs have been running got called. The original ayatollah has long since gone to whatever awaits him. His successor, who in many ways was even more evil, has paid the tab for all that was done. In fact, quite a few of the leadership seems to have departed with him. Pity, no? We can but hope that the demonic despots fall, and that Iranians regain their freedom. It is up to them now.

Not going to bore you with a bunch of drivel. Know I’m glad you and your brothers didn’t ‘have a word with me’ when I was interested in your sister, who deserved and found someone much, much better. Wish you hadn’t transferred to post eternal, and were still here with your family and friends. I pray the Lord has enfolded you in his light and comfort, that you rest with the saints where the light of his countenance visits you, and that you be judged to join those at his right hand.

Iran Underway

Not a surprise. The embassy evacuations yesterday, that had to be done by the evening local time, were a sign. It may be hours or even a day or two before a lot of reports can be confirmed, but there are some things that are clear even now.

First, clearly a decapitation/regime change strike. The U.S. seems to be focused on infrastructure and some logistics, while Israel is taking out the rest. No surprise, and a good use of resources as (and I’ve noted this before) Israel has an almost frightening degree of penetration within Iran. When you can plant bombs in light fixtures months or longer in advance, set up robotic machine gun arrays, and more, you do indeed own your target.

That seems to be getting put to very good use in this attack. One of the firmer rumors out there is that the attack commenced once the senior leadership of the mad mullah regime were gathered together for a meeting. Much like the start of the 12-day war. Except, this time, it wasn’t military and nuclear leadership, it was the full top leadership including the ayatollah his own self. Seems that once that was confirmed, boomity.

Despite that, I’m taking reports of various eliminations with a grain of salt simply because one should. An operational rule for such things is never accept the initial reports, and even with some confirmation plan and continue as if the strike failed. If nothing else, you take out the secondaries and even tertiaries along with leadership that could fill any vacuum. Fact is, pretty much the entire membership of the IRGC will have to be taken out for any regime change to succeed. For those on X and wanting to keep up with the latest, here is a link to my Intel list.

I am wondering if, once again, Israel has blown open the doors to Evin prison. I certainly hope so. Both the U.S. and Israel have sent the message to the Iranian people that it is up to them. The Pahlavi team has as well. Video coming out of Iran has shown people literally dancing in the street in celebration. All good signs, but I also hope to see some concrete actions starting soon once the initial strikes are over. That will tell the tale.

It should also be noted that Iran has probably sealed its fate no matter what. By attacking all its neighbors with a strike, it turned neutrals and potential neutrals into enemies. Worst miscalculation: Saudi Arabia. The attack on them broke cultural and other norms, and has brought the Saudis into a full state of war against Iran. If things don’t move fast enough inside Iran, don’t be surprised if the neighbors don’t act. Side thought, this is also going to do more to strengthen the Abraham Accords than almost anything else could have done.

There is also a lot of truth to the discussions that October 7th was the worst military blunder in history. Most are putting the blame on Hamass, but the operation was approved and encouraged by Iran. It was a gamble, and if Hezballess had joined in as apparently planned, it could have put Israel on ropes. Or worse even. Instead, for a day of horrific rape and murder, Hamass, Hezballess, and other Iranian proxies are a shadow of their former selves militarily (sadly, politically still viable thanks to enablers and supporters among the progressives in the West). Now, the head of the serpent may well have been cut off. If Iran does get freedom, expect to see a number of open and covert proxies develop problems.

Along that line, if you have not read Kurt Schlichter’s book The Attack do so quickly. Today is not a day for sandstone, but a time to go red and put your head on a swivel. Of the millions who came over the border under Biden (and even before), a number of IRGC members or operatives are believed to have been among them. They might not be happy at regime change, and they may have received orders (or had standing orders) in that regard. Be prepared.

Not going to say much, but while I suspect some of that threat has been neutralized, I wouldn’t bet on it. I’ve seen it apparently happen once before, many years ago, but one should never count on a repeat. Be prepared.

More soon. I truly hope the people of Iran take this opportunity to reclaim their country. I hope they make good choices and decisions, and embrace freedom. The world will be much better off if they do so. That said, it is up to them. This is their moment, pray they rise up to it.

Meantime, keep your eye on Pakistan-Afghanistan. This in many ways has the potential to be more serious and have even larger consequences on the world than Iran. Right now, about every jihadist group in the world is siding with the Taliban. This includes certain families and groups such as the Haqqani. On the positive side, Pakistan has the chance to do the world a huge favor if it eliminates those groups/networks/etc. They have already taken out a Taliban general it seems.

The downside to this conflict is the tribal nature of the region. If enough tribes/families turn, there is a potential for Pakistan to either fall, or fall into internal turmoil that is not good in a nuclear nation. The last thing anyone should want is nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of the jihadis.

It is not a simple situation with simplistic solutions or ideals. Approaching it as simplistic is a potential invitation to disaster. If anyone tells you it is simplistic and X must be done, especially a politician, shun them and their proposal. It is easy to say ‘we should support Pakistan’ but you also need to recognize that tribal loyalties matter more — even within the Pakistani government — than most in the West can grasp. Personally, I hope Pakistan ends up eliminating a number of threats to the West and the world. However, my support is selective as I don’t want to see certain factions (tribes) gain sway on the ground or in the government. For all that Iran can still hurt us, having nukes in the wrong hands could be much, much worse.

Right now, all we can do is wait and watch. I expect the mad mullahs and their ilk to try their best to take everyone down with them. Keep in mind, they want such as a means to get the hidden imam to return. Also, they are just that type of people and they will do everything they can to get as many civilians and others killed. They are also going to double down on lies and more, and are likely to try to get as many proxies or remote teams to take action as possible.

Which means the next few weeks are going to be a time to be on watch and be prepared. It is always good to use and exercise your rights, but the next few weeks will be a crystal clear time to do so. Be prepared to walk fast at need, and to maintain situational awareness. Be Prepared.

One more thing: you are going to hear a lot of politicians and other supporters of the Iranian government screaming about the attack being illegal. It’s not. The courts have ruled on this even. Generally, the President can act unilaterally though he should brief Congress within 48 hours, and Congress has to approve if action goes for more than 60 days. Please don’t fall for the lies.

More later perhaps. Still recovering from yesterday morning, so likely taking as much of the day off as possible.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.