Dobbs

Actually, this is a dissection of the response to a post I made on Twitter, which was in response to an overly dramatic post by a celebrity. I’ve enjoyed that person’s work, even the occasional scenery chewing, but wasn’t surprised at the dramatics.

The majority of response were likes to a post that basically said “No uterus, no say” which is one of the most intellectually vacuous statements out there. It is a logical fallacy right off the top ten list, an effort to end discourse rather than engage in it. Twitter makes it hard to get an exact count, but it looks like 40 or so went that route rather than for discourse.

Then there was the bizarre take of “When the state wants to start castrating men, you’ll sing a different tune then. No state should be allowed to say what you can and can’t do with your body. End. Of. Story.” Looks like 20-30 went with this. This level of projection is worthy of a full-up psych study. Let’s dissect it a bit further.

The State is the Federal government, and if all power resides in it, then it can indeed do bad things. That’s a fundamental reason for The States to have power as a check and balance. Fundamental civics, well understood from the statements of the Founding Fathers. It’s also the reason for the First and Second Amendments since word would need to be spread of the abuse and the Second provides a means to address. Before you start screeching, you might want to check the Federalist Papers as well as the letters and writings of Thomas Jefferson and others such as Adams and Washington. As for the nukes and such, you might want to ask the Taliban and the Ukraine about how it is impossible to go up against a government with nukes, artillery, and aircraft. That take is a bit of idiocy others have already taken apart, will just refer all to the International Lord of Hate and his posts.

The next logical perversion/fallacy here is that not allowing abortion at will through or even after birth will somehow bring about The State decreeing all males must be castrated. Or, at least all those who don’t fully support abortion on demand, which is what I think is the actual psychological projection here. No basis in fact, no logical or illogical reason for it since if all are castrated there will be no future population, hence no future State. To call this fantasy bizarre is an understatement and it is in direct opposition to the fantasy of forced breeding and birth that seems to be popular.

Finally, the implied assumption is that either I and all other males will simply comply or be forced to submit. By whom? Are there some in the military or LE who would obey such and order and engage in such force? Sure. Are there a lot more that won’t? You bet. Scooter, which part of the population has both the weapons, the training, and even the service to handle those weapons (and more) and resist? Might want to think on that a bit, especially if you are proposing that you and your fellow citizens will make it happen. I may well be singing in the future. Heck, I might even be singing in a growing pile of hot brass. The one thing I will guarantee is that it won’t be in soprano.

Looks like about six went with “States rights is the most un-American argument ever. That’s how you make 50 little warring countries. UNITED States. It’s like, right there in the name.” Do they even teach civics anymore? History? This bit of risible idiocy has partially been dealt with above, but allow me to add that the Constitution was written to prevent that level of strife and that other than the War Between The States it has held. It has also allowed, to some degree, individual States to pass laws and try things so that other States could adopt if they proved to be good ideas. The incubator concept of the Founding Fathers clearly isn’t being taught anymore. For the record, I suspect my landlord’s cat has a better knowledge of civics than these people and I know my Algerian-born housemate does as he just finished earning his Citizenship when he passed his civics exam. Really thinking it would not be a bad idea to deny high school graduation or a GED to anyone who can’t pass that exam…

There are a couple of outliers, the obligatory mother forced at risk of her life to carry by the cold, cruel, uncaring state; unfuckables identifying themselves (based on some of the photos, not interested, even with someone else’s member); and it was a Constitutional right. No, it wasn’t. It was NOT an enumerated right, which was the entire problem. It’s one even RGB pointed out along with a solution. Solution not taken, so here we are.

Now, let’s deal with some reality rather than the feverswamp of dramatic fantasy. Dobbs puts abortion back to the States, who can for now decide what limits and other measures to put in place. It does not prevent the Federal government from passing legislation on abortion, and there will doubtless be pressure to do so.

Some States have already effectively banned abortion. Don’t like living in one of them? Then don’t move there or if you live there and can’t get it changed, move yourself to a state with laws you like. Live in a State that hasn’t yet made up its mind and passed laws regarding abortion? Get active and let your legislature and others know where you stand, from banning to abortion after birth. For those advocating the latter, may God have mercy on you.

Will any of the State laws keep you from traveling to another State to get an abortion? No. They never did. Will any of the State laws prevent treatment of ectopic pregnancy (which is NOT abortion FYI)? No. Will any of the State laws force a mother to carry to term even at risk to her health? No, not that I’ve seen. If you have a real citation otherwise, let’s see it. Will any State law force women to be prosecuted for a miscarriage? Again, no, not that I’ve seen. And again, if you have a real citation otherwise, let’s see it.

The truth is, absent a Federal law, we are going to see a range of options on abortion, from a near total ban to abortion-on-demand up until birth. Abortion tourism is going to be a thing, at least for a while. If New York and California don’t get into fight over who is the best destination for an abortion, I will be surprised.

Couple of quick side notes. First, as a small-l libertarian, ownership of our body is the core of most rights. It also, however, includes taking responsibility for what we do to and with that body. Second, our body sometimes does belong to the state, such as through military service. In the case of abortion, it’s about the life and body inside the woman’s body, as that life and body deserves to be protected as well.

UPDATE: Amazing the silence from the my body my choice types when asked where they stood on vaccine mandates…

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Since the last update, the only thing that has changed in terms of Russia/Ukraine is that Russia is pushing hard in more areas in an effort to seize territory and cut off reinforcements from counter-attacking. Of course, that works both ways and the recent deep drone strike(s) by the Ukraine are designed to put the Russians on the defensive. Expect it to get even more brutal and nasty here soon, and for the latest information on the combat check out the OSINT people I link to on Twitter (@laughingwolfone) as a good start.

Not exactly a daring prediction, but expect the Russian push to intensify so that Vladimir can “annex” the most possible territory even if he doesn’t really control it. The announcement of annexation is also likely to declare that any attempt to defend (in areas he doesn’t really control) or to take back what they have seized will be an act of war by Ukraine and NATO.

Yes, I expect Vladimir to expand things as they’ve spent the last 20 or so years preparing the populace for war, even nuclear war, with NATO and the U.S. If you aren’t familiar with some of this, check out Kamil Galeev’s extensive work on this and related subjects.

Right now, Lithuania is pushing as hard as it can to make this a NATO/EU war by cutting off access to the Kaliningrad enclave. For those who know not history, Commander Salamander points out a rather unpleasant historical parallel.

The Baltic states have been pushing for this to be a NATO/EU war from the start, and on some levels it is hard to blame them. They know they are on the list to be brought into Russkiy Mir by force. Vladimir has just reinforced that with a series of comments and provocations against them and Denmark. That said, I am less than thrilled with their efforts and this latest by Lithuania has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. Then again, that’s why they are doing it.

There are those who are already calling this the Cold War 2, and saying it could last generations. On some levels, I hope they are right. There is far too great a potential for this to become a hot war on levels no one will like. It will take competent, knowledgeable, and strong leadership to navigate either a cold war or a hot, and frankly I don’t see that leadership anywhere in sight right now.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Learning from what they don’t say

What leftists aren’t saying about the controversial lesbian kiss in Lightyear shows that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs — and always lie about it.

I know conservatives are supposed to be racist scum, but look at what doesn’t get said about the controversy surrounding Disney’s new movie, Lightyear.

The Daily Mail’s headline: “Disney’s Lightyear FLOPS in opening weekend that saw it fail to topple Jurassic Park at box office after controversy over lesbian kiss and decision to ax conservative star Tim Allen as voice of Buzz”

Variety, in March: “Same-Sex Kiss Restored in Pixar’s ‘Lightyear’ Following Staff Uproar Over ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Bill (EXCLUSIVE)”

The LA Times reports: “…it was reported that a previously cut kiss shared by queer “Lightyear” character Alisha Hawthorne and her wife was reinstated in the film….[I]ncreasingly loud conservative voices [] try to foment irrational outrage over any acknowledgement of the actual reality of LGBTQ people existing.”

And on, and on, and on.

Of all of those articles posted above, only the Daily Mail shows a picture of the couple in question. Notice anything?

Why aren’t the bigots overreacting to this? I was told there would be bigots!

Yes, they’re an interracial couple.

But the horrifyingly evil conservatives who hate the entire LGBTQIA2SNPZ spectrum, people of color, women, and the poor equally, aren’t saying “boo” about this interracial couple — even though overturning Roe v. Wade would apparently lead us to overturn interracial marriage.

And no leftist (a.k.a. “mainstream”) outlets have even tried to claim that horrifyingly evil conservatives might say such a thing. You’d think that one of us vicious racists would have said something racist about queer miscegenation, and that some leftist paper would have picked it up — and if we didn’t say it, they’d make something up and claim that we were thinking it. But we didn’t say anything, and they didn’t report on anything, and they didn’t even think about accusing us of racism because, well, it’s such nonsense that even they couldn’t dream it up.

What leftists aren’t saying shows us that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs, even though they normally say the exact opposite.

[Laughing in Clarence Thomas]

Very Interesting

The Russian Orthodox Church has removed it’s chief ecumenical official and effective foreign minister Metropolitan Hilarion. He’s to take over the Diocese of Budapest and Hungary.

It is worth noting that he came out against war just before the invasion. It should be noted that Patriarch Kirill (who I think had input to Russkiy Mir and has endorsed it) is pro war and pro Vladimir. Probably a good thing I’m not a good Catholic these days, as my thoughts on Kirill are not kind. There is already schism brewing in the Russian Orthodox Church over the war, with the Ukranian branch declaring themselves independent of Moscow and a surprising number of priests within the Russian Church that have not only come out against the war but condemned Patriarch Kirill.

I noted a couple of months ago that had seen a change in Vladimir a couple of years ago. Formerly he was (coldly) calculating, sharp, and a master manipulator of people. More than ever I’m convinced that something happened 2-5 years ago that changed that. When you see a change that big, it most often involves something that makes you face your own mortality. In Vladimir’s case, I also admit it could be demographic and other data that shows the window rapidly closing not only on Russkiy Mir, but Russia itself.

I mention this because the removal of Metropolitan Hilarion would not have happened without Vladimir’s full knowledge and approval. I also think this shows his decline as a manipulator of people even more than the way he’s been treating subordinates in public and in private.

I also noted the other day that there was a lot of jockeying around in the Kremlin. More than ever, it looks as if people are trying to shore up positions and prepare for the departure of Vladimir. It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays into that, and the impact on the Russian Orthodox Church’s relations with the world and with its own discontent.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Just a quick update today, more regular posting soon I hope as the medical sagas seem to be slowing down. We are working to take care of everything that can be taken care of, and ensuring no new problems, so I can move in the best possible health. Also, want everything done that can be done as both I will have to get new docs and my insurance will not transfer so will have to find new insurance as well.

As for the Ukraine, it remains and looks to remain, a long brutal slog. The people I recommended last time are offering a lot of good insights into the war I highly commend. As for the long-term intentions of Russia they remain the same: Russkiy Mir. If Vladimir can’t take the Ukraine now, he’s going to go for all he can and wait for another chance. Don’t expect a change in leadership to change that goal. Even the loyal opposition there tend to be in the nationalist camp, and some names popular in the West are bigger nationalists than Vladimir.

As before, rumors continue to swirl. It’s interesting that there are suggestions that some of the more interesting ones come from Vladimir’s office — which means I trust them not at all. Others are clearly trying to push people into making moves or stands that can be exploited in the Russian version of the Great Game that is politics. Others are clearly aimed at a Western audience. Forget a grain, treat them all with a tun of salt.

For now, I expect Vladimir to continue with the long campaign. The worst part is that the Russians have learned some lessons and gotten in some good leadership that are adapting. Now, the Ukraine is having to adapt and react. It truly sucks when your enemy gets smart, for all that the Ukraine has rather gleefully potted as much of that leadership as they can. Both sides are fighting smart now, which is only going to make a long campaign even longer if all things stay equal. Unless the Ukraine significantly screws up, I see internal Russian issues being what causes any change to the long campaign.

With one exception: outside aid to the Ukraine. Vladimir hates it, blames all his military problems on it, and it could end up changing some of the internal calculus in Moscow. Also, don’t expect all the losses, corruption, and other minor issues like Sweden and Finland asking to join NATO to force a retreat. A double-down perhaps, but not a retreat.

I am unsurprised to read that the Uvalde LE, local and school, are no longer cooperating with the State probe. I also expect to find out that all of them are lawyering up, which I reluctantly must admit would be the smart thing to do. Well, the truly smart thing to do would be to quit and move, and armor up, as the local citizens are a bit irked with them, especially since there appears to be confirmation that some of kids bled out while they waited. I also note that in more than one society/civilization, when one screwed up this badly, one was expected to fall on a sword and explain the failure to one’s ancestors.

More soon.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Too stupid to govern

Can we survive governance that has no rational basis?

“The right to privacy that forms the basis of Roe is the same right to privacy that protects…the right to marry the person you love…”

Vice President Kamala Harris

[Marriage:] the state of being united as spouses in a consensual and contractual relationship recognized by law

Merriam-Webster

Marriage, as a state recognized by law, is an inherently public institution.

Who knew that the right to privacy protects the right to participate in a public institution?

The benefits of being hated

It’s reasonable to start off well-disposed to a public figure if he’s hated by the right people.

New guy here. You might see me post on an eclectic mix of things, so it’s a little tough to know where to start. Since I have to start somewhere, though, it will be with this ditty I sent to a liberal friend to explain why his hatred for a politician was so useful to me.


It’s reasonable to start off well-disposed to a public figure if he’s hated by the right people.

I’ve been told too many times that I have “the final solution” for a problem, that I want to subjugate women, that I hate black people and want white people to run America, that I hate poor people and just want to raise more illiterates for the maw of corporate machines, that I’m both so ignorant and hateful that I’m irredeemable, and so on. And I mean all of this literally; I’ve been told these things about myself. Not by friends who know me, but by friends of friends who apparently believe they do.

Since I’m described this way even though I’m not evil, and my own experience shows that most people aren’t evil, it’s reasonable to guess that most other people who are described this way also aren’t evil.

Given that, it makes sense to ignore public figures who aren’t hated enough – Dr. Oz in PA, for example – because they’re probably somewhere pretty far away on the ideological spectrum. Even if they’re nominally conservative or Republican, they don’t think the way I do about the issues.

On the other hand, it makes a lot of sense to start off with a good disposition toward someone who is strongly hated by “the right people”. If most of the media-political-academic establishment wants to destroy a public figure, then he’s either like me (the large majority of them) or an actually bad person (a small minority of them). I can use media hatred as a starting point to evaluate whether those public figures have earned their hatred by being good, or they deserve their hatred because they’re actually bad.


Nice to meet you all, and I’ll see you again shortly.

The Revenge Of HUMINT

In yesterday’s post, I talked a bit about the push in the US to get away from human intelligence (HUMINT) because it truly is messy, as well as being offensive to Jimmy Carter’s sense of morality. Instead, the US went all-in on technology, which became National Technical Means (NTM) and is now apparently referred to as NRO Overhead Systems (NOS).

Now, satellites and other technical means can get you a lot of data. You can count ships, planes, and tanks; you can see structures being built; and, you can watch for movements and activities. However, there are strong limitations to satellites and related, and they don’t give you context to go with what you see. Which is why you need other means, including HUMINT.

Today, we have an unprecedented amount of information at our fingertips. Open-source intel groups do some fantastic work. There are websites and apps that track almost every aircraft in the air around the world. There are others that track ships, trains, and about any form of transportation you can imagine. Commercial overhead imagery is better than what aircraft and satellite cameras got early on.

Then, you add in professional and social media, plus the World Wide Web, and you have a situation that if it is not information overload, it is not far from it. Instead of frantic efforts to find out about a unit and maybe get a hint of its commander, you go to the unit’s website and get pretty much it’s complete order of battle. From social media, you can find out about morale and how things are going (hint: lower enlisted everywhere in the world are prone to bitching about things, they just now do it online as well as in the chow line). You may even find a professional writing by the commander, as well as his own social media posts. Thank you internet and computer technology!

But, all of that technology has thrown you right back into the HUMINT trap. Is that Pvt. Ivanabitchconstantly a real private, or disinformation? Is the information being posted by a “reputable source” online accurate, precise, or highly biased? Motivation matters as it tends to skew what is being posted.

As a quick aside, information tends to be either accurate, precise, or biased/bogus. When I wrote press releases for a part of DoD, the releases were accurate: the information within was valid. They were not, however, precise as while those designing and building various things want friends and even enemies to have some idea about the system, they sure were not stupid enough to tell everything including full performance data. I will note that a lot of USSR/Russian releases go the biased/bogus route as anything done by them is bigger, better, and does more than anything we design. They tend to advertise a lot of Ronco products in my book.

Finally, you have to take into account social filtering. This is the need to avoid getting in social trouble for what you are posting. Because the Chinese monitor and censor so heavily, people are very careful either to not post anything that could get them in trouble, or they use language that the censors don’t (yet) recognize as saying something other than what it might appear.

In both Russian and the Ukraine, the government is monitoring and even mild criticism can and will draw an official response. In Russia, it is also easy to note that other members of the public are quite happy to deal with complaints or objections to the war by a variety of means ranging from loss of job to loss of teeth. So, again, you get people either not saying what they think, or saying it in a way that will evade the censors for a while. Or, by finding platforms dark or deep that aren’t being monitored or from which they can’t be traced.

This all applies double to what is going on in the Kremlin and other centers of leadership at all levels. I think the following is universal: politicians leak; the leaks are always biased to hurt another and advance the leaker; and, the only thing more vicious than a cornered rat is a cornered political apparatchik. In Russia, politics has been a blood sport for centuries. What we might think of as a minor setback can literally be a matter of life or death. The higher you go, the more likely those are the stakes. Don’t believe me? First, study Russian history, and then go ask those Gazprom and other leaders that all just committed suicide after killing their wives and children. When someone tells me that the Russians won’t do X because they aren’t that way, or because of their children, I know they are ignorant of Russia and Russian history.

Which is why when I hear reports and rumors of discussions in the Kremlin and elsewhere, I tend to use a lot of salt. Why is that information leaking? Why is this or that spokesperson, minister, etc. saying X in public? What are they saying off camera? Is all the discussion of nuclear war a bluff? A legalistic warning and stage setting within Russia? A push to see how far they can push before getting pushback? Other? On that, I’m in wait and see mode as I know that at some point someone with a political axe to grind is going to leak something about it. Something that may not be accurate or precise, but will still reveal what was going on.

In the meantime, we still have to filter everything else. Those who continue to process everything through our cultural blinders are going to continue to be horribly wrong. Those who can set those aside and consider things from the Russian (Ukrainian, etc.) point of view are going to get it mostly right. At least on a threats and intentions basis. On a tactical/strategic basis, those who bleat about Russia having 10,000 X have yet to grasp that while that may be true, if even a third of X is useable it may constitute a miracle. At least with conventional. While I have strong questions about nuclear on both sides, as well as the reliability of the rockets, I also am in no hurry to get the answers and especially don’t desire to find out the hard way.

So, welcome back to the HUMINT trap. All our vaunted technology has brought us full circle back to the messiness that Peanut couldn’t stand.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Pins And Needles Time

In chatting with another writer this morning, he used the phrase above, and we both agreed it’s going to be a long weekend. Monday, 9 May, is likely to tell the tale. I don’t like where my own analysis leads, especially as I tend to think the line between tactical and strategic exists only in the minds of idiots.

Of the people I respect and/or know, they seem split between three options. In the first, Vladimir declares goals accomplished and in effect goes home. In the second, Vladimir declares war on the Ukraine, mobilizes, and goes all out with conventional forces. In the third, Vladimir declares war on the Ukraine and uses both chemical and nuclear as part of the “escalate to de-escalate” program.

To be very honest, I hope and pray that Vladimir does the first. It would be the wisest course given all. That said, I’m not sure he can do it for a variety of domestic political reasons. He invested heavily in the 24-48 hour victory fantasy, then doubled down when it failed. The current offensive is effectively at a standstill, which is not a good position for declaring unilateral victory/success/goals met.

On the second, I think a brutal slog will get even more brutal. Unlike some, I also think that Vladimir will use chemical weapons while threatening to escalate and/or ignoring any and all posturing by the West. After all, the extensive use of chemical weapons in Syria did not bring about any meaningful response despite a lot of posturing by Western leaders who decided the line was neither red nor a line.

On the third, I think it will be a literal miracle if Vladimir only declares war on the Ukraine. All of the proper legal (Russian) and other steps to widen the conflict have been taken. There are reports that Vladimir is particularly irked with the British, and the case has already been made in multiple avenues that Russia is already at war with NATO. While in the past we have made accommodation with the Russians taking a very active role in its proxy wars with the West, there is no guarantee Russia will return the favor. In fact, they have made it rather clear that they are not inclined to do so.

In regards the third option, my own take is that they will use chemical and are likely to use one or more tactical nukes against a headquarters, logistics center, or symbolic target and one or more of those targets may not be in the Ukraine. Poland is the likely target, but other countries can’t be ruled out. After the use, the word will go out that we accept or they go strategic and launch everything they have. The response of the Biden administration, NATO, and others is not guaranteed.

In fact, the possibility of panic and/or dementia anger scares me. You have the meat puppet, a VP who apparently refuses to read the daily intel brief, and a brain trust that not only seems determined to start a war (see all the leaks of how we are helping the Ukraine kill generals, sink ships, etc.) but reportedly has never done any exercises involving nuclear war… Yeah, we could live a version of The Sum Of All Fears. I really don’t want an answer to the question of what happens when no leader is strong and secure.

Until the 9th and a definitive statement from Vladimir, we sit on metaphorical pins and needles. My suggestions are: prayer, and lots of it; preparation; and patience. I’ve made what preparations I can, and really wish the fundraiser hadn’t stalled so I could be moving right now. Where I am, I either have a good chance, or am totally fucked if they are using one of the old targeting packages. Going to hope for the former, and hope that an order gets here before anything happens, and top up some of my preparations. Nice thing is on the food, it can be used when things get lean later in the year if Vladimir does call it and go home.

Be safe and be prepared. And hope for the best on Monday.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

By Dawn’s Early…

First, some homework. While I would love for you to read everything I’ve written on Russia/Ukraine and Vladimir, reality says you are probably just going to skim this post. For those who truly want to understand what I’m going to write today, please take the time to read this update, this post, and this post. It’s not complete, but it does give you enough background for a foundation to today’s post.

Second, I’m going to do something no author or pundit is ever supposed to admit: I hope I’m wrong. Not a little bit, not a lot, but run away and hide in shame wrong. Mercilessly mocked wrong.

Now, let’s get started. The planned victory celebrations on May 9 for Czar Vladimir I aren’t going to happen. As noted before, the Ukrainians dared fight back, and won great victories. Vladimir shifted to take the East and South, but even there things are not going to plan. Not only are the Ukrainians taking a certain delight in offing Russian generals, they have apparently hit targets in Russia. I say apparently because I suspect the R&D fire was typical ineptitude (there’s a bit of history of such, particularly when R&D and production are combined); if the chemical plant was the Ukraine, my hats off to them; and, finally, some of the events are possibly false flag with both sides denying responsibility.

Why the false flag ops? Simple, Vladimir has to show that Russia has been attacked. He has been being extremely legalistic (by Russian standards) throughout, starting with declaring that there was a Nazi menace in the Ukraine. He has continued that even into the nuclear threats, and as he builds the case for a war. I had wondered a bit at why special weapons had not already been used as the Russian military has hit situations that called for such use per doctrine. However, since it’s officially not a war…

Vladimir very much needs to make this a war. With a formal war declared, he can keep his conscript and contract troops for the duration. With a formal war declared he can mobilize reserves and more. With a formal war declared, he can take the gloves off.

The question is, will the Ukraine be the sole target of his war? There are very interesting rumors that it will not be limited to the Ukraine. As I noted a while back, we are seeing an increasing emphasis on being at war with NATO and certain non-NATO countries that are providing assistance to the Ukraine have also felt Vladimir’s verbal ire. If those rumors and reports are true, at the very least, the declaration of war will directly or indirectly include NATO and other countries.

No, that’s not weasle-wording. Despite being a despot, Vladimir does not operate in a complete vacuum. There are arguments, let’s say, for and against naming one and all. A strong argument can be made (cough) for not listing but rather using a phrase like ‘and countries supporting the Ukraine or the attacking of Russian targets on Russian soil’ as it gives you a lot more flexibility. Keep in mind how legalistic he is being, and keep in mind his audience for this is not primarily the West (with caveat to come) but rather the internal Russian audience.

Vladimir is a true believer in the Russkiy Mir plan and a staunch Russian nationalist. Vladimir is of the school that sees communism as having been a poison for Russia because it was a non-Slavic philosophy forced onto Slavs. He also believes in the idea of ‘Escalate to De-Escalate’ as I’ve noted multiple times.

Right now, two options have caught my attention. In the first option, after a declaration of war gives him the troops and legal use of the full might of the Russian military, he can then use conventional weapons against targets outside of the Ukraine per the declaration of war. If he hits targets in the UK, Europe, or in route to the Ukraine, he then has a legal defense that he can present to Russia and the world for such, even as he threatens to use his nuclear arsenal if there is any retaliation. And, trust me, anything and everything will be a retaliation. Option two is much the same, but chemical, biological, or nuclear (tactical/small strategic) are used.

Vladimir is already well aware that Biden is terrified of a nuclear exchange or starting WWIII. For all that the dementia-ridden meat puppet told him that in talks a while back, there is the matter of Biden’s well-known anger issues. If anyone can name a single thing the so-called Biden administration has gotten right, please do let me know. Every effort to find or even build an off-ramp that might have worked (not sure Vladimir will take one even if offered) has been blasted out of existence by the Biden administration. It’s almost as if some of them want WWIII. The administration has proven Obama right when he said ‘Never underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.’ Yeah, single quote as I’m not sure it’s an exact quote.

So, I suspect any diplomatic effort out the current administration will simply strengthen Vladimir’s resolve. The contempt Vladimir feels towards most ministers and other government officials has been massively on display with Macron. He’s also very pissed off with the British right now (Russia/British relations are a large topic for another day, as a lot of it dates back hundreds of years). That leaves Xi, who has seen his alliance with Russia go sideways on multiple levels. Outside of those leaders, I’m not sure who could step up, have Vladimir actually listen to them, and find a good diplomatic solution. There are, of course, many bad diplomatic solutions most of which revolve around the world abandoning the Ukraine to its fate.

Now, let’s complicate things just a bit further. A while back, I noted that I had seen a change in Vladimir’s thinking that indicated a rather strong personal shock. The kind of thing where you realize your mortality, your country’s mortality, or otherwise had some type of Road to Damascus moment. While I noticed it a couple of years ago, whatever happened could have taken place as far back as five years ago. I’m not sure if the reported upcoming cancer surgery is related to it, but since I believe this report to be true you have to also accept that it is a factor in his thinking and planning. When I used the word Gotterdammerung the other day, I wasn’t joking.

If Vladimir and his clique have an ounce of sense, they will keep any and all attacks conventional. I’m not confident enough to place a bet they will. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on tactical use of special weapons. Under normal circumstances (whatever they may be), I would not see things escalating to a strategic exchange. With the situation as it exists now, I won’t bet against it.

If it were up to me, I would be looking hard for someone or several someones to try to find a diplomatic solution. I would be reaching out to Vladimir, I would be reaching out to Abramovich, I would be reaching out to the dog lounging at the Kremlin gates. It would be quiet, but it would be done along with trying to say the right things in public (something our administration has yet to do).

At the same time, I would be making sure a number of scheduled, “scheduled,” and unscheduled drills take place. I would be dispersing our nuclear forces and weapons. The Air Force would be testing plans to disperse fighters, bombers, tankers, and other aircraft to auxiliary fields. The Army would be doing much the same, so that one bomb doesn’t really take out a whole base. Every sub that can sail, would sail. The troops taking part in NATO drills or to bolster the defense of NATO allies? They need to practice dispersion and/or digging in, so do it. I would have as many in the line of succession off on business trips, junkets, etc. as possible. You better believe I would be making sure the E4Bs and E6Bs were flying. This can be done without officially raising our alert level, and I would be starting to do it NOW. Yes the Russians would see much of this. They are supposed to. It’s called deterrence. Right now, Vladimir believes Western leadership is too weak to respond. This at least helps diminish the strategic threat.

Edited to add: Patriot, Iron Dome, and any other ABM defense systems we have or can get is put out with the troops. Anything that can be activated CONUS should be activated, even if it’s been in orbit for a decade or two. Bring it all online.

What little influence I may have ever had in DC went away about the time Reagan left office. So, all I can do is look at stepping up my personal preparedness levels a bit more, and really really wish enough would come in to the fundraiser so that I could move now, now, now. I would suggest to you, my reader, that you up your preparedness levels a bit too. Given inflation and the growing amount of problems with the food chain, it can’t hurt to have food you normally use laid in.

I also will suggest prayer. The prayers offered up for me since I was hit by lightning last year have made a difference. Right now, I think our best hope is with the Devine.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.