Politics – The Laughing Wolf

Probabilities 2026

I want to be clear that this post is not prophecy, the office of prophet having passed out of the Church within the first two centuries after founding; but, rather, it is an oversimplification of the range of probabilities that I currently see. The number of permutations that are possible are, in my opinion, beyond the mind of man to discern and understand, and focusing on one specific thing always seems to effect or negate that thing. So, no prophecy; rather, two potential avenues with rather extensive gradations.

Along with Sarah A. Hoyt and a number of others, I’ve pushed for people to hold for several years now. To not react to the provocations of those who want to destroy civilization. For many of those provocations were designed to have the very people who believe in Western Civilization and such concepts as Freedom, Individual Rights and Responsibilities, Liberty, and the rest, take the steps to destroy them by their actions. I would still very much prefer we avoid those actions; however, we are fast approaching schwerpunkt, an inflection or even undulation point theoretically capable of forming a new dimension. Make no mistake, we truly are at a such a point.

On one hand, we truly do live in a golden age with unheard of prosperity and health on a global basis. Even with all the problems we have, the average person right now enjoys a standard of living almost undreamed of by our ancestors. Particularly in the West we have freedoms to make the philosophers blush; we have medical treatments that in comparison to even a hundred years ago can bring the dead back to life; public health and hygiene are at levels where any time they aren’t high becomes news rather than being the norm; and, we still dream.

We have Elon desperately working to get us out of the cradle and on the way to the stars. He and his team are even working on a flying car, not because it is currently practical but because they can (and I will bet the practicalities come rapidly upon it truly hitting the market). Nor is Elon alone. His work and actions have inspired a host of others, and where they are not forbidden to do so great things are happening.

That future is bright, and I am skipping over many of the things to come from it. Truly regenerative medicine is on the way, as are treatments for any number of currently “incurable” conditions. Economic prosperity goes hand in hand with advancements medical, technological, and otherwise. So does individual liberty.

On the other hand, we have the failed models of communism and socialism being propped up to cover outright fascism. The rule of a self-appointed “elite” with the proper credentials who operate through token leaders who’s loyalty is not to country they lead but rather to the global elite.

This is the government of no. No, you may not do that. No, you may not worship as you want. No, you may not do anything to get ahead. No, you may not speak freely. No, you may not peaceably assemble. no, No, NO! You see it all around you already: the EU, the commonwealth of formerly great Britain, and in the repressive regimes of so many other countries. Governments where simply disagreeing with the government can and does get you arrested — England is but one example.

The people behind such have been losing power for a while now, and are not happy about it. If the United States falls, they see not only saving their way of life, but of being able to bring about a world government of the credentialed “elite” that can be kept at a manageable level via control of food, technology, and innovation. That the masses would be just short of starving and have no real wealth (you will own nothing and like it), and and under complete control is a feature, not a bug, to them. That said peasantry could be used for many things, including let us say physical pleasures without let or compensation, is left unsaid but is already seen in actions both near and far.

Before I forget, do take the time to read Glenn’s excellent article and here’s a link to the book he mentions.

Ah, but this is just lurid fantasy being presented as if it were reality the bots say. To which I reply: go listen to them and read what they say. Start with Sen. Slotkin, who almost gleefully boasted of her anti-American plan to go after young people who work for Trump (or anyone declared an enemy). Look at the judge in DC who is forcing DOJ lawyers to sign a document they are not required to sign in order to go after them with lawfare in the future (and this on top of interjecting herself into a plan to upgrade a golf course, which is far outside her purview). Look at all the other judges getting away with lawfare against the current legally elected administration, and/or who are also rather clearly operating a multi-tier system of justice.

Keep in mind Slotkin is not alone. She is the most prominent of those who have spoken the truth to other true believers and realized belatedly it wasn’t as private as they thought. In fact, if you aren’t following the work being done by Data Republican you really need to as what she is documenting right now is nothing less than the planning of a coup after the election. The pig squeal by the Washington Post says much.

This is exactly one reason I have said hold and hope we can continue to hold. There appears to be a large effort to create civil unrest, specifically vigilante actions against criminals and others (including low-level politicians). These are actions that are essential to some of what Data Republican (and others) are revealing. Throw in a U.S. version of the riots in Europe (organized and funded by the same people and groups), et voila you have the grounds to take the actions being discussed “theoretically” or otherwise.

Thing is, I don’t want to see it because I think the credentialed idiots truly do not understand humanity, and in particular Americans. On the former, even those who have operated overseas rarely see the results of their color revolutions (much less normal ones) up close and personal. They think that the actions of the mobs are because they are uneducated savages, rather than simply because they are human. They also seem convinced, thanks to COVID, that Americans will willingly acquiesce and do as they are told — completely ignoring the massive and not particularly hidden non-compliance/malicious compliance of the masses. If we cross that line, it will be brutal and uncontrollable to a level they can’t begin to imagine.

I think their idea of being able to control, or turn up and down, the violence is about as likely as their idea they can control and manipulate the Islamic hordes they have unleashed into Europe and America. Think they missed the whole Iran thing, where the left and the Islamics joined forces to topple the Shah. As soon as the Shah was gone, the killings of those on the left began. Rule of thumb: the useful idiots are always first against the wall (or off the rooftop). Doesn’t seem to matter what flavor or color the revolution either.

I could go on, but there is a good bit to think about, research, and consider above. There are some points that may need more discussion, for which I hope we have time. I really don’t want to get into politics, or even the appearance of such, because of the path I am on. That said, God gave us not just Free Will (which is a big deal to the Orthodox) but also bodies and minds in his image — and I think we are meant to truly use the latter. What I’ve brought up today is less about political parties as it is seeing two clear paths. It’s similar, to my mind, to standing on railroad tracks and seeing a train speeding at you. Some would say to just trust in the lord and stand fast. For me, I feel obligated to point at the train, and the switch between tracks that is just ahead of us.

I know not which way the switch will be thrown. It’s finer than a razor’s edge on how it goes.

I know which way I hope it goes, though there will be blood and suffering either way. Team Credentialed Idiots has invested a lot into building a lawfare machine that is not going to go away absent being deliberately and even ruthlessly eradicated. They have other mechanisms in place as well, via the NGO pipeline. This is their last real chance to cling to the power (and wealth/position) they have held since WWII. As I’ve noted before (particularly with Vladimir) desperate people do stupid and desperate things. They would far rather burn down civilization if they can’t rule it.

Team Hope, on the other hand, offers the best path for Free Will and the growth of humanity. It is not just a bright future of things; but, an expansion of Freedom and Opportunity to levels of which are almost beyond dreams. Freedom of Religion, which will be gone in the other, will also result in a new birth of Faith.

Keep in mind that there is no real way to step off the track. The best we can do is prepare for what is coming, understanding that there will be some hardship either way. It is just that with Team Hope I see that hardship being limited in scope and duration, allowing us to keep most of the momentum towards a positive future as possible. On the other hand, I wasn’t joking when I said on X earlier today that I see a thousand years before we can claw our way back to the point we currently hold. Lives and more will be lost. Christianity, Judiasm, and other “problematic” (according to Team Credentialed Idiots) will face persecutions that will make what happened after the Bolshevik revolution (much less pagan Rome) seem like a picnic. After all, examples must be made and the Islamic hordes “fed” (at least until they can be controlled/eliminated, on which subject my money is on them and not TCI).

Also keep in mind that TCI really does want some martyrs of their own. Preferably low-level, but those behind this honestly view Slotkin as expendable and even more useful than the “loss” of multiple lower-level pawns. They consider themselves untouchable, and I would simply point out that even The Untouchables were touchable, after they were identified. Keep in mind that they want, they NEED, the excuse of random/vigilante violence to bring parts of their plan to fruition. When someone attacks, and you know where the blow is aimed, move the target — rule of Aikido that applies to the great game as well.

I’ve given what I can of the two broad probabilities I see. The choices you make are yours to make. I am Team Hope, and Team Faith. The choice is before you, make yours. Know also that refusing to make a choice automatically defaults you to Team CI and the darkness.

Meantime, kick your preparations into overdrive and pray. Keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

UPDATE I: Welcome Instapundit Readers! As always, please feel free to look around, join in a conversation (rational discourse appreciated), and check out some of the other topics and posts. Scroll down as there are smaller posts between the larger ones. You might enjoy some thoughts on securing European nukes, some discussion on the FlyDubai incident, or browsing through some of my pilgrimage and theological posts. Or perhaps reading about the untold story behind Hogan’s Heroes. Or, if interested in Preparedness, start here and work your way forward. Grab a drink and a snack, and be welcome.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. If you would like to help me with seminary courses, pilgrimages, and more, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. Thank you.

A Speech You Need To Hear

The more I listen to Marco Rubio, the more impressed I am. This speech sums up why. It is a speech which you need to hear. It traces a history of growth, of advancement, of a better future for all — and what we need to do to restore such. Take a listen, watch if you can. It is well worth it.

On this Columbus Day, let’s look back at what set things in motion for Columbus, Brendan, and others. Let’s make the right choices so we can gift that same growth and future to our descendants.

UPDATE I: Welcome Instapundit Readers! And thank you Sarah A. Hoyt for the kind link! Feel free to look around, kick the tires, and enjoy some of the other posts. You might enjoy some thoughts on securing European nukes, some discussion on the FlyDubai incident, or browsing through some of my pilgrimage and theological posts. Or perhaps reading about the untold story behind Hogan’s Heroes. Plenty here to read, and good, thoughtful discussion is appreciated.

“I’ll Use Nukes!” Yet Again

Once again, Vladimir is rattling the nuclear sabre like it’s a set of castanets in a flamenco dance. It’s been his thing from the start, as he’s threatened to go nuclear every time Ukraine dares to truly fight back. Put up resistance, NUKES! Any attack on territory Vladimir has seized, NUKES! Any deep strike against Russia, NUKES! Zelenskyy takes his daily dump, NUKES!

The latest bit of castanet soundings comes out of a 2024 update to military doctrine which allows for use of nuclear/special weapons in response to a conventional attack. Frankly, I regard it as a sign of awareness that Russian conventional forces are in a parlous state. The only thing interesting about this latest bit is that it may have been first stated in public by a Russian diplomat/dignitary in Ireland. Really doesn’t matter, as Vladimir and his Moscow Orchestra began baying about it for all to hear.

Why? Simple really. Go back and read here and here. Even the slackest armchair strategist noted that if Vladimir did indeed go after Estonia, in whole or in part, NATO or certain of its member states would be well within their rights to take out Kaliningrad. A pretty obvious response that seems to have slipped the attention of some advisors in Moscow. To try to block such a move, Vladimir has once again trotted out NUKES! as a tired, overworked, overused response to the possibility. Frankly, in many respects, it’s the only strategic card he has left.

It also leaves aside the questionable reliability of his nuclear weapons (don’t laugh, our own may not be any better) and that of his delivery systems. Dr. Doomsday can rattle on all he wants about limited use of tactical nukes and how Russia would win such usage and things would not escalate. Fact is, there has never been a distinction made between tactical and strategic use at the political policy level of the West. Under current U.S. leadership, I would expect that to hold. Caveat Emptor, at a level I really don’t want to see tested but know where I think things would fall. I have seen nothing to change my previous thoughts on the 80/20 divide.

So, I don’t expect nukes this time either. What I do see is an huge increase in asymmetrical warfare, including the use of proxy terrorists (who may even do it for one of the political causes de jour despite funding and assistance) to take out targets in Europe and England. I noted a good while back that England has gotten a LOT of the focus of Russian ire, and that has not changed. For now, Vladimir seems content to let the current leadership finish off what little is left of England; but, I also wouldn’t be surprised to find that there was some clandestine support for attacks via immigrants as well as some of the malicious prosecutions underway against ruling clique opponents. I will say that if there is anything approaching an open attack, it will be against England. In Europe, it will stay proxy for now. In the U.S. things will stay proxy for now.

For now, it never hurts to be prepared for interesting times. If you aren’t and want to get prepared, go here and work your way forward. For me, I’m not too worried about nukes. Far more concerning is how energy has become the primary battlefield and I expect that to continue and grow. Good time to explore alternate means of heating and cooking during the winter, just in case. My hope is that things don’t get out of hand, or otherwise too bad, and that we continue to walk the knife edge in all things. There is more solid footing ahead if we can just make it there.

Have Faith. Be Prepared. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

The Current Game(s) Afoot

Had really wanted to get this up yesterday, but had to spend a good chunk of the day getting imaged, tested, and treated. It’s been two or three years since my last major flare, so I can’t complain although I wish I had caught this one sooner. In a bit of pain still, but think the mind is clear enough to dig into what I flagged in this post.

There are actually several things going on and I’m starting to think more of them are connected, and possibly even coordinated, than most people think. Can’t prove it, but a thought: Take the last few major deep-dives by Data Republican in regards NGOs, altruists, etc.; compare and contrast with some of the things Preston Byrne and Mike Benz Cyber are covering; and, then look at some of the odd things going on here, during an election year, that don’t seem to be making much sense. Hold that thought.

The big scary international thing is, of course, Estonia/Russia. I’ve seen a lot of head scratching over not so much what is going on, but why it is going on. I suspect the answer is very straightforward: Vladimir sees the chance to get multiple targets with a single stone. If it works, great. If it doesn’t work now, he’s still laid the groundwork for later.

The real target isn’t Estonia. It is NATO. To be blunt, NATO is a hollowed-out shell of a force which would have a hard time defending against a cranky cub scout with a popsicle stick — if not for the United States. To be fair, most of the “new” Eastern European members have been taking their commitments seriously. However, almost all the “old” Western European members haven’t taken their commitments seriously in decades. They’ve used the U.S. to fund their unsustainable welfare states and let everything else slide.

I hit part of the list the other day. Canada is a joke in terms of numbers (people, ships, etc) and outside of a couple of ice breakers they have no effective force and no way to project power. England, well, sigh. The England I loved is dead and gone, and has been for some time. Right now, they literally can’t put together a squadron of ships, even a squadron of two — unless you are counting rowboats. They’ve gutted manpower, weapons, systems, and done everything they can to demoralize the troops and demonize those who have served in the past (including lawfare against those who served decades ago). That’s a page Australia has picked up to a frightening degree, and while they still have some force on paper, I have doubts about how much truly can be brought into play or that the current government would even try to bring it into play. Germany has a fraction of the number of people serving that they need for defense, much less offense, and little way to project that force outside of Germany. My suspicions on how much they could project in Germany (unless it’s against the AfD) are not charitable. I could keep going, but you get the picture.

When, aside from some of the Eastern European members, the most robust member militarily is Turkey (who’s leader has Caliphate dreams) you’ve got problems. Again, I could say more but if you scan the data you will see it for yourself.

Now, as Old Paratrooper noted in a comment to the previous post, at least some of the members are starting to step up. Problem is, they are starting. Getting the materials, then training people, etc., takes time. Let’s say everything goes perfectly: you get the supplies on schedule and in the quantities ordered; you have people step up to serve (or draft them, suboptimal) in sufficient numbers; you get decent training set up (that’s the hard part, just ask Col. Kratman); and, training goes to schedule and plan. You are talking a five- to seven-year timeframe, minimum.

Now, if you think Vladimir is not aware of all this (or that he lacks staff with brains), I’ve got a bridge for sale, cheap. He’s also very well aware of what a feckless bunch the majority of current EU and/or European leaders are. Heck, I suspect he has huge amounts of compromat on most of them. Which might explain a few things but that’s a digression for later. Right now, he’s very well aware that quite a few “leaders” are extremely upset that their rice bowls have been kicked over not just overtly by Trump and his current administration, but covertly as well via shutting down the USAID/NGO scam that funneled billions to progressives around the world.

Vladimir, Winnie the Xi, and others are also extremely aware that the U.S. is working to re-up its military game. Panama, Venezuela, and other areas where China (and Iran and others) had bases in the hemisphere have undergone changes in attitude if not management. That’s one reason Carney’s hopping into Xi’s bed to cuddle has shut a LOT of doors in DC and elsewhere. Add in his attempts to also suck up to the EU and put them directly on our doorstep, and it will be years to repair the damage done by Carney and the regime up north. Trust me, the U.S. is not the only one observing the antics and making notes. Back on the main subject, they have also seen Pete and company make some serious inroads on restoring the U.S. military as a fighting force that wins wars. They are also tackling a number of logistics problems (nightmares to be honest) and other issues that will make quite a difference.

In time. As with NATO making an effort (token on some parts IMOthe ), it will take time. There are a lot of people with vested interests in keeping the old system and its rewards in place, and they are fighting a stubborn, if quiet, holding action against the reforms. As I noted on X, take a look at who all opposes Louisiana II (as I am calling it). Make a list, because they are the problem and are the ones fighting effective and needed changes. For the reforms to truly take and to prevent a return to the old status quo will take at least eight years, if not double that.

Again, Vladimir knows this. He knows that not only do a lot of European leaders hate Trump and company for ending their game, they hate all that Trump and the U.S. represent. He also knows that a number of them, if faced with a real threat of war, would fold in place like a cheap chair.

Couple of other things to keep in mind. First, there are a lot of politicians here in the U.S. that hate Trump and his administration for shutting down their rice bowls too. They, too, hate the idea of the peasants having a say and not doing as they are told. I have to wonder, how many of them have pulled a Teddy (not Roosevelt) and had a private talk with Vladimir or a high-level intermediary to request help and/or coordinate. How many are in the camp that would like to see a civil war in the U.S. as they think such can be managed and restore the old order? Sure does seem a bit suspicious the number of violent offenders being let out immediately in some areas — almost like there’s an effort to provoke a response from the public that is, or can portrayed as, a vigilante action that requires drastic measures… I wonder about a lot of things because the patterns in the data seem to be surprisingly interconnected. There is usually a reason for that.

Now, let’s get back to Estonia and Russia. Keep in mind that Estonia, like a good chunk of the world, is slated to become a part of the New Russian Empire via Russkiy Mir. In fact, I do believe it’s on the sooner list. Securing Estonia also thwarts a NATO bottleneck via the Gulf of Finland, which gives the Russian Baltic Fleet some additional options.

I see several different options in play here:

First, if NATO makes it bluntly plain that if any incursion into Estonia takes place, it will be met with overwhelming force then Vladimir can do nothing and blandly say he never planned to do anything. He’s expended no real capital, no political capital, and all the prep work will still be in place.

Second, in that case I would expect him to wait and see if there is a change in administration in a couple of years. After all, there are a lot of countries who would love to see such a change and might even be willing to help make that happen via info campaigns, funds, etc. I mean, what’s the difference between an info op in regards data centers and trying to swing an election? Just a thought. Also keep in mind who was President here (and what party they were part of) each time Vladimir made territorial moves. Hate to say it, but the smart money would be to do nothing now and wait a couple of years.

Third, continue the Sudetenland playbook (said it was an old playbook, and to be honest it’s even older than this suggests), run a limited op to “liberate” Narva, and see what happens. I think Vladimir is betting that NATO will fold, which will effectively end the alliance even if the bureaucratic shell still totters along for a while. Eastern Europe will know beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are on their own as far as the EU is concerned, and let’s face it, that’s what truly counts since most Western European countries are hollow, brittle shells of any former might or glory. The hollowing out has been going on for a couple of decades now (longer, really) and I don’t think there is enough time left to fill them back in. Hope I’m wrong, but… Very sadly, I think this may well be the most likely scenario.

Given time, I still think a new and better bulwark can be built with the Eastern European countries. See previous posts on a New NATO. Again, the problem is time and I think Western Europe has far less of it than they realize, and that Col. Kratman may well be a modern prophet via his book Caliphate.

Now, if Estonia’s neighbors and some of the Eastern European NATO members go all in and stop the “incursion” (guarantee that is what it will be called rather than an invasion), I see two possibilities.

First, that provided they stop at the current borders and strike no major targets inside Russia, things may stop. Return to the status quo, people and leaders give sighs of relief that things didn’t escalate, and life goes on.

Second, and most likely, Russia moves to widen the war. It’s not covered much, if at all, by corporate media in the U.S., but Russia has been testing air defenses in Poland and elsewhere on a regular basis for quite a while now. “Accidental” incursions that allow Russia to see how fast countries and systems react, how they react, and what happens after. The second the responses get slow, or the incursion gets ignored, the odds that the next time is real go up dramatically.

Keep in mind that moving to help Estonia means weakening your own defenses, whether directly or in terms of depth. Do I think that Vladimir would take advantage of any such opportunities to damage or take out what he regards as enemy states? You bet your bippy. Again, keep in mind, they are on the Russkiy Mir list too.

And while I’m peering into the patterns, I do see limited nuclear use (or attempts) as possible. That said, I do not see them as probable at this time. Which is why I also don’t see a full nuclear exchange as a real possibility at this time. May that never change. Besides, give us six to ten years and see what happens…

Then again, that emphasizes part of the problem: time. Right now, Vladimir sees the opportunity to take out NATO on the cheap. He is well aware that time is not on his side in regards NATO or the U.S. Or even Ukraine for that matter. Which makes me think something unpleasant is indeed about to happen. And quite possibly not just in Estonia. There are too many out there seeing their rice bowls and way of life upended, and in far too many cases (IMO) they are active/stupid people. Which means we could see a number of sad, foolish, and even stupid things happen.

Which means I very much hope my Option One is what happens. Status quo and there never was any plan to do anything to Estonia. I also hope that here we continue to walk the knife edge and avoid real unpleasantness here at home. There are times such is trying, and the easy thing to do would be to act. Please continue to think, and to avoid the reaction some people seem to foolishly want to see happen.

I see a number of very hopeful futures in the data. The trick is to avoid the efforts to send us away from them. Like I’ve said, I think the next six months are going to be very interesting. Stock up, hang in, and hang on.

Be prepared and Pray. Keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

BTW, before you reach any final decision about my thoughts here, may I also suggest you read this from Yuri Bezmenov and this about Mexico’s interference in our government. Here’s a hint. There is a lot more interference in our processes and elections than you think. Also, go read up on Russia’s asymmetrical warfare, which is not limited just to Europe. Expect to see a lot more of that too, no matter what. Also, this from Instapundit is something you want to read.

Heads-Up!

The other day, I mentioned that I had an odd feeling about the next six months. This from Stephen Green at PJ Media is one part of some very disturbing patterns in the data. There are some domestic issues as well. For all that these exist, there are also opportunities to continue walking the edge of the knife to better and safer places.

Remember that there are those who would like us to step off the knife edge in a bid to retain power and control for the failed institutions of the past. There are yet others who believe, wrongly, that it is the fastest way to seeing them on top. Both groups are desperate and stupid, and we need to avoid their attempts. There are indeed many ways for the West to fall; but, there are opportunities to achieve something greater than ever before.

So, have Faith, hold the line, pray, and prepare. This too will pass. Maybe like a kidney stone, but it shall pass. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

UPDATE I: Eric S. Raymond is all over this story and makes some good points. Start here and check out his timeline.

UPDATE II: Really do need to do a longer post, and may do so soon. Short take for now: the best thing that can happen is that all NATO members make clear that any incursion will be met with full force. Right now, Vladimir is banking on the fact that NATO won’t respond with full force. He’s betting that most of NATO lacks troops and the necessary means to project force to protect Estonia given how hollowed-out most of NATO is. The Royal Navy can’t even get a two-boat squadron underway (unless they are rowboats); Germany lacks the means to defend itself, much less get troops anywhere in a hurry; and, the list goes on. Poland has capability and will, but helping Estonia carries significant risks for them. The U.S. is the wild card, and Vladimir is quite well aware that a good number of Americans have no interest in saving Europe yet again, and few even know where Estonia is or why it’s important. The fact is, if he does act and NATO blinks in almost any way, shape, or form, it’s dead. Eastern Europe realizes this far more than Western Europe and the EU do. The latter have not figured out that the gravy train has stopped, and the few that do think this is temporary and will end as soon as Trump is out. This ties into a lot of domestic politics here as well. Maybe a longer post provided I don’t have to head to the ER again. If Vladimir gets multiple messages that NATO will act and not get away with this very old playbook, he’s likely to not act — at least not for now. If the DSA/DNC takes power again in a couple of years, no bets. Just look at all the whens and wheres in regards Crimea and Ukraine.

UPDATE III: Col. Kratman has a few thoughts. Pretty good ones as usual.

UPDATE IV: A longer follow-up post is here.

DCA Crash Follow-Up

Long-time readers know that I’ve been following the DCA crash since it happened, and have shared reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) when they came out. It caused some readers to get upset that I refused to place blame at the start, and said to let the process play out. Especially as there was plenty of blame to go around.

Six months ago, the NTSB issued a report with 75 findings and 50 safety recommendations. Turns out there was indeed plenty of blame to go around, a lot of it system failures that put the pilots into a situation where they had no chance.

Today, the Chair of the NTSB issued a statement regarding the lack of progress in those 50 mandatory recommendations being implemented. Partisan bickering in Congress has stalled some critical items, and rather than deal with that the Senate is going to go on yet another vacation.

There are some important and long-needed changes to systems underway, and frankly the Senate needs to sit down, work things out, and pass the necessary legislation. My thoughts on them not doing so are less than kind, to the point of being unprintable. We need to get things fixed to help ensure nothing like this happens again.

Please check out my Summer Bleg.

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Barksdale And Drones

First, before you do anything else, go read this very good post by Leslie over at Legal Insurrection. She covers a lot and makes a number of very good points. That said, I want to chime in with a few thoughts.

First up, there appears to be some leadership issues. Pete has been fairly clear on the need to develop anti-drone strategies and to be creative in so doing. In fact, some interesting concepts are being tried and actually potentially fielded. Yet, at the same time, the response to a clear and present danger is to monitor, try to jam, and apparently to wring hands and cry how nothing works. Personal opinion, that’s the time to let troops with trap and skeet experience go to work in downing as many as possible.

It would be nice to also to be able to track back the control signals for the drones to determine point of origin. Jamming is well and good, but there’s another phase that seems to be lacking in the response. Fact is, we need robust, capable mobile detection systems that will facilitate a rapid identification of the origin of the signals and allow said site to be neutralized. Ideally, getting those behind the control alive and with equipment intact for analysis, but given that this is a major nuclear base we need to be able to identify and then go in hard and FAST.

Also, question for the audience: Do you think China is the only country or entity that has been buying land near major military installations? If so, why do you think that?

We really do need to rethink the triad and our full posture. We also need to get serious about drones and drone defense, as dithering and hand-wringing is only going to see our aircraft fleet mangled wreckage. Drones require being pro-active, and that is the antithesis of what has been drilled into most military leadership for a while now.

Just some thoughts to share.

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The LaGuardia Tragedy

What happened with the CRJ and the fire truck at LaGuardia was indeed a tragedy, and a preventable one. Not necessarily for the reasons many of the people trying to score political points off the blood of the tragedy are expounding though.

First, let set some basic terms and information that are needed to understand the situation. The FAA and the Transportation Administration control aviation in the U.S. You have flight control, which is the part of the operation that controls and monitors flights in progress. You have departure control which is concerned with takeoff and departure operations. You have landing control, which is responsible for the last part of the flight and landing. You then have ground control, which is responsible for general movement on the ground.

Depending on circumstances, these can all be different people (and some companies even have their own ops people at airports, such as caterers, cargo companies, etc) or they can all be one person. Depends on a number of factors, with the largest being the size of the airport and the amount of traffic. What a lot of people don’t like to talk about is that it also depends on staffing, which started to be an issue in the mid-2000s. There are actually several reasons (no matter what the yard signs say, there are few simplistic problems and no simplistic solutions) and they include training issues, technology issues, and workload.

A lot of this has been discussed in regards the DC crash (covered here, feel free to hit the search button). The technology of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system is beyond antiquated, as are a number of the collision avoidance systems. In the wake of DC, there was a lot of talk about fixing that right now, and people like Elon and others who know tech volunteered to help. Haven’t heard a word about that since.

Would love an update on what’s being done, or not, and why. There are in fact straightforward solutions using Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technology that would vastly improve both flight control and approach/departure control. In the past, one of the biggest stumbling blocks was Congress, and some members of the bureaucracy, as such projects did not grease the right hands or flow to the right districts. It would be nice to get a DOGE (or a Data Republican) audit of all that has been pledged and spent on this from 2000 onwards since a lot of it just seems to me to have disappeared.

Congress has also been a huge problem with the staffing issue, particularly the Oklahoma delegation of Congresscritters. Right now, the FAA school for controllers is in Oklahoma; it can’t handle the load it has much less train the numbers of people needed; and, that delegation has blocked every effort to open other FAA schools elsewhere. Just a suggestion, but take your BP meds before you dig into this and other ways Congress has blocked pretty much all efforts to fix the staffing problem.

And it is a huge problem. Controllers, particularly approach/departure/ground, can find themselves working six days a week with mandatory overtime. Before passing judgement, or wallowing in the blood of the tragedy to make points for your side (what ever that may be) check out how long the controller in this case had been working. Check out the last time he had any realistic time off. Now, add in antiquated tech that hinders detection of problems rather than warning of them, and add in effectively what looks to be about three emergency/potential emergencies he’s juggling at once.

This is a life that just ended in most respects. The life he had is gone, and two people are dead and more injured because he was overworked and without help or support from his leadership including Congress. Pray for him, as he is going to need those prayers, even as you pray for the souls of the dead and for the injured. And before you jump on him or to make points, listen to the exchange afterwards, where he says he made a mistake (one he tried desperately to stop BTW) and is comforted by a pilot who told him he did the best he could. And he did, in a system that failed him, and us.

As with the DC crash there is plenty of blame to go around. My ire is focused a good bit on Congress, but more than one administration has not taken transportation, and reform/improvement of the FAA and ATC system seriously. I hope the current administration will take it seriously and that Sec. Duffy will step up and be the leader needed to meet this challenge. He talked good game after DC, and I would like to see some walk to go with the talk. If Congress or others are trying to play their usual games, let’s take the gloves off and do what’s needed before more are killed and more lives destroyed. Again, please do pray for that controller, he needs them.

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Precision Imprecision

It is fair to say that President Trump is known for his bombast and often imprecise wording. We all make mistakes with such, and it doesn’t help that most of his overly credentialed critics think him an ignorant buffoon. Yet, he can and does get very precise in his wording, and I would argue very deliberately precise in his imprecision. When he does so, there is usually a reason (often confounding opponents and critics).

One of the latest posts by the President is a good example of such. In it, he discusses negotiations with Iran and the decision to not launch any military strikes against power plants and energy infrastructure.

Two things jumped out at me immediately. First, the use of “country of Iran” in lieu of anything else. Not the current government, not the IRGC acting as the current government, but the “country” of Iran. I’m wondering if it doesn’t signal possible talks with the future government of Iran, who need that infrastructure in place if they are to rebuild. There have already been some pleas from citizens inside Iran begging Trump not to go after the power plants, and I strongly suspect the Pahlavi family has expressed similar concerns to the administration.

Which also ties in neatly to something I saw really start popping up yesterday about the need for boots on the ground in Iran. Not American boots, not Israeli boots, but Iranian boots — from outside Iran. Given that some affiliated with the Pahlavi camp have indicated a possible return to Iran within thirty days, it would make some sense. It would also be the best option from many perspectives to dealing with the remnants of the mad mullahs and the IRGC. It might also be one of the factors in Bessent’s 50 days of high gas prices prediction.

Second, I noticed the very specific list of things that would not be hit. Power plants and the grid. I also noticed quite a few posts popping up on X where the author claimed no military strikes for five days. This is a rather transparent lie. First, as soon as there is any military strike, such as sinking Iranian fast boats and others attacking or threatening ships in the straights, they can and will scream that Trump broke his word — and the sad fact is that too many people will fall for that. Low-information types and the TDS victims will go for it without thought. Second, the smarter ones will argue that any strike on oil collection, refinement, transport, etc. will be a violation of his word and that is likely to work on some mid-level types.

Thing is, I think Trump is good with both of those. It is amazing how many people are being exposed as paid shills and/or outright liars since the start of his administration. The ripping off of masks personal and organizational is indeed enlightening, and the damage done to once respected individuals, institutions, and brands really hasn’t registered yet, particularly with the participants.

The next thirty (fifty?) days will be interesting. I’m hoping for good interesting, as a world without the mad mullahs and their ilk is likely to be a much better and more peaceful place. Or, at least one where good and decent people can have a chance to rebuild lives and even civilization. Let us hope for the best.

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