History

Brace, Brace, Brace

Place this post in the category of being yet another one where I hope I am very, very wrong. In fact, it goes into that category where I will be happy to admit I was wrong. May the worst-case pass us by and may the least-case set the norm.

What am I talking about? The upcoming election, of course. Before I get going, some homework for you in regards the upcoming discussion.

I highly recommend going back and re-reading Larry Correia’s excellent takes on the 2020 elections, here and here. There are some other good ones out on that election, and 2022, but those do a very good job of establishing the patterns. Patterns we are already starting to see in Colorado (passwords, multiple other issues, trying to keep Trump off the ballot), Minnesota (multiple votes same voter ID number, etc.), Michigan (Chinese student voting), Pennsylvania (closing lines, voter intimidation, etc.), and, well, there are more.

In some cases, you will hear ‘oh, it’s just the one’ and other excuses, but keep in mind: each of these is a canary in the coal mine. Where there is one, there are usually more. Unlike 2020, the RNC and others are quick to file complaints, lawsuits, and such — but they still don’t stop many of the efforts (cough, Pennsylvania, cough). Oh, and if you watch some of the video from Pennsylvania starting with the two ‘Emergency Services’ people stopping the line. Pay particular attention to the body language of the dark-haired guy: that’s someone hoping for a fight, a chance to use force. Nor is he alone if you look at the other videos and watch the body language. Remember, mouths lie but body language rarely does. Also keep in mind that at least one person associated with a campaign has apparently been arrested in PA for telling people not to leave the line when (illegally) ordered to do so. While it will be an interesting case to follow later, it’s already succeeded in intimidation and more for now. Also remember, process is punishment.

While we are at it, don’t forget this going on in Arizona and elsewhere. Now, for non-domestic shenanigans, please pay attention to this story as this and worse are quite likely to to be happening well outside the Pacific NW.

Now, may I recommend you go read Sgt. Mom (always a good read anyway), David, and then Mike. Then go read Sarah. Win, lose, or draw, I think the odds of the Gods of the Copybook Headings claiming their own are far larger than I would like. I think this will indeed happen if Trump wins by a good margin; I think it will happen if either Trump or Harris win by a narrow margin; and, I think it will really go off if Harris and the cabal win by a large margin.

A bit of history here. The current ‘rule of the elites’ aka the rule of the credentialed elites (technocracy, etc.) has been a thing since at least FDR, though I would argue it really started under the loathsome Wilson. Now, it truly took off under FDR and has been the defacto ruling party for the decades since. Generations of our political class and so-called elite leadership have taken their place in government and associated organizations, grown fat, passed positions and power on to children and even unto grandchildren and great-grandchildren at this point. You see it with Pelosi, Bush, and others. The smart ones have stayed more in the background, and when you start looking at that level it gets most interesting. Government, no-longer-emergent NGOs, think-tanks, and the rest of the incestuous mess.

Now, for something different, a bit of older history. I would argue that most today have no clue how rare (and precious) the peaceful transfer of power throughout history. In point of fact, a very good argument can be made that it didn’t really exist until the founding of America. Even in monarchies, the transfer from one monarch to the next was a perilous time that often resulted in bloodshed. Even when the initial transfer was (relatively) peaceful, it often happened that such was a carefully papered over and the bloodshed only delayed. In such cases, it almost always was more bloody and nasty as a result as well. Remember, entire blood lines oft disappeared in cruel and unusual ways.

Another little bit of history that Sarah, myself, and others have mentioned before: What happened in Israel on Oct. 7 is not an abberration but the historical norm for sacks and similar attacks. Why do I mention this? Because I am worried Kurt Schlichter may have been an optimist. Imagine what happens in the book if there were two or more brigades of terrorists involved. More on that in a minute.

Before I get into things, I am also going to point out that while historical analogies to Rome (or Greece, Egypt, etc.) have some validity for comparison to modern events, personally I think it’s a bit limited. I would instead recommend looking at the French Revolution, a number of the civil wars in Central and South America, and even some of the civil wars/revolutions in SE Asia. I think they are far better than the former as comparisons, and in current events even more so than the Russian Revolution.

The fact is, you have an ‘elite’ that has effectively been in power and ruling in the U.S. for about 100 years. This is the only system the younger members know, and it’s all that counts as the older members are now dead. Even the “elders” right now essentially grew up in the system, so it is all they know. They see their power ending, along with family dynasties and a gravy train that has done them and theirs very well.

What makes you think they are going to give any of that up peacefully? Do you really expect them to say ‘hey, it’s time and we can transition to new opportunities and grow even more?’ Look at history and see how often that has happened, either with governments, people or systems immersed in a particular technology or market (think, cotton, guilds, heck, even the mafia looking to go legit), or even early NGOs (think guilds for just one). Please, name me one time such has happened on a large scale.

Now, look back at the last twenty years and the lawfare waged against those who would rock the boat (Trump is just the latest and most blatant); the efforts at government censorship in defiance of the Constitution (governmental agencies, organizations, etc. working with Facebook, Twitter, etc.); and the efforts to stonewall challenges in the last two elections in particular. Now, look at what the Harris campaign has said about disinformation, rights not being absolute, etc. Do you really think they are just talking? That it means nothing?

The so-called ‘elites’ are a uniparty and they have been building towards this for years. History started before 2016 and since the days of hanging chads, the beat has gotten louder and louder: illegitimate election, electoral college bad, the D candidate got more votes, etc. That hit an initial crescendo in 2016, but I will bet on something much louder this time if the cheat doesn’t work.

We could well see an action as was just seen in France, where Macaroon refused to acknowledge the results of the last election. What happens here, if the peaceful transfer of power does not take place? It really doesn’t matter how or even if there is a shred of legality to anything done, the question will come back to what happens now. What happens when one side knows lawfare and more (and if you think the people killed/murdered in unnecessary dawn raids were not noticed, you are mistaken). What if one side sees it as the end of the life they’ve known, and other other knows it means the end of their lives and that of their loved ones? What happens if the Constitution is null and void.

Do I think the so-called ‘elites’ are stupid enough to go there? Yes. Most live in a bubble and have no clue about reality, history, or much else. They do think the deplorables will just accept, go along, and wear the chains. They have no clue of what is and has been building, and that their place in history is gone.

To make this even more fun and interesting, what happens if in the early days a series of events take place to disrupt voting and disrupt the process after the election? When the election is already (rightly) suspect in many areas? Especially if known groups are the front? What happens if there is an attack like in The Attack?

While Iran is clearly in the lead for countries that wish us, the Great Satan (remember, Israel is the Little Satan) gone. They, however, are not alone as a good case can be made for China, Russia, and even Ukraine more directly interfering in our elections than has already been done. Think they haven’t? Think they aren’t prepared for more? Look at the number of Chinese, Middle Easterners, and others of interest (including Chechen) that are known to have illegally crossed the border.

Imagine you suddenly see the country that you hate the most/is the biggest block to your plans suddenly spinning into a major crisis. You have the chance to indirectly add to the chaos and push things so that they are not a threat to you or yours for years or generations. What are you going to do?

It is a time of great peril, and a time of great opportunity. The former should be obvious to anyone who has any knowledge of history or who has spent time overseas — particularly in countries that are in or just out of internal strife like this. The latter is something that we really need to deny to our enemies, and seize for ourselves. We are at a cusp that sees us poised to become interplanetary, eliminate a variety of health problems, end scarcity of a number of resources, and ensure our survival as a species (at least for now). I want that future for us, and not one of nasty, brutal, and short for all but a self-chosen few.

My advice for now is prepare, keep your head on a swivel, don’t respond to obvious provocations, and keep your things where you can find them in the dark. Pray. I hope some sanity breaks out, but I’m not seeing much sign of it in the data so far. I hope I’m wrong, and it does pop up. Not betting on it though.

The ride is not just going to get bumpy, it’s far too likely to get beyond turbulence and things that toss us around a bit. Hang on and hope for the best, and seriously, pray.

Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Let’s hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

9/11

I still remember that morning all too well. The first report, easy to think it an accident like the B-25 (?) that hit the Empire State Building back in the day. Rapidly it became clear it was deliberate, and I got to call my boss and tell him the United States of America was under attack. Even ended up in NYC a bit later and spent some time at the site and at various emergency command posts.

I fear we have forgotten that day, and the lessons of it. As a result, I fear that we may soon experience far worse.

Remember the day, pay heed the lessons, and be prepared. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Kursk

If you follow some of the, ah, more seasoned milbloggers and such, yes there has been a bit of snickering and odd jokes. And, to be honest, there is a part of me that suspects that somewhere Guderian is smirking if not smiling. I know I smiled a bit at hearing Marders had broken through in Kursk. If you are a student of military history, you pretty much could not help it. Not because of sympathy for the Germans in WWII, but for the rich, deep irony of the situation.

Two good pieces on Kursk are up here and here. There is a lot of fragmented info coming in via OSINT. To call the situation fluid is an understatement on par with referring to the Sun as warm. Ukraine has wisely not said a lot and apparently not shared a lot. For all that many suspect the U.S. knew and said nothing, I’m getting suspicious that we may have known and been told far less than that, and that Ukraine has learned a lesson about sharing plans and info with the U.S. Nothing concrete, just odd bits of data that don’t fit the pattern. Then again, most of our allies learn that lesson, sometimes painfully, as sharing with our politicians is pretty much a bad idea. Yes, there are a couple of exceptions, but note that they are exceptions.

Now, lots of people are noting the railway lines and logistics. True, and very important. As is how an already strapped Russia is going to deal with the loss of more vehicles, tires, and other things in short supply. Heck, even their ability to respond with artillery is limited by the frantic need for replacement liners for the tubes they already have. Even with U.S. and European companies selling them chips, equipment, and more, they can’t keep up with the losses (and yes, these companies are indeed helping the enemy).

Many of the Russian troops involved are conscripts, without a good leavening of combat-experienced leadership. From reports from Russian channels, this is not working out well. I also note, as do some others, that reports of riots and looting are not calling out if they are the result of civilians, troops, or both. Chaotic is a polite descriptor and efforts to flee the growing zone of occupation are creating gas deserts and other problems.

Now, on top of the logistics mentioned above, which are critical to supplying troops and civilians in previously seized and recently seized areas, take a look at the gas pipelines. Guess what country appears to be sitting in control of up to fifty percent of the natural gas going to Europe? That brings in hard cash and more to Russia? Guess how much more is possibly within drone or artillery range?

Now look at energy, which is needed for logistics, industry, and more (keep in mind, energy for civilians will be a low priority at this point for Russia). Look at what nuclear plant just got taken out of the game (and the games being played by Russia burning tires in the cooling tower of one plant they hold in Ukraine. And, yes, that was a game and a threat). The ability to use railways still under Russian control, power airfields and other military bases, and critical industry and support just got taken offline (effectively). Heck, if Ukraine destroys about ten or so key transformers it could be years before power is restored without Ukraine getting within a mile of the plant. To replace them faster would mean taking them from other areas and depriving those areas of power until new ones could be manufactured. Also, look at what countries would be involved in that manufacture.

Oh, and don’t forget power is sort of critical to data, and access to data is a key to modern warfare. Drones, smart bombs, and more depend on data and taking out power reduces or eliminates local data transmission. You need that local data rather badly for all phases of the process. If properly prepared and with the right gear, it’s not a problem. What do you want to bet about such in regards Russian troops and the Ukrainians?

I agree very much with those who are pointing out that this is in some ways a mirror-image of ’43 Kursk. The Russians are scrambling to get troops headed towards the breakthrough. Not only are they pulling border troops from all over, they are pulling reserves (and possibly more) from the previously stalemated battle zone. Now class, can anyone tell me what happened when Hitler pulled reserves and even troops from the assault back in 1943 in response to Sicily and other pressures? Bueller? Bueller?

So, I find myself wondering about several things. How many of the Russian troops in the Kursk region were ghost troops? That is, they exist only on paper so that officers up and down the line can pocket the pay of soldiers that don’t exist? How many of the troops in surrounding regions that are now being sent to deal with the breakthrough (and I do call it that deliberately) are also ghosts? It is a large and ongoing problem for the Russians (and even the Soviets before them).

Another good question is how many of the so-called second-line troops that people are claiming were moved into the stalemated battle lines were indeed second-line? What is going to happen once the Russian reserves and even line troops are pulled back to deal with Kursk?

Also, there are interesting reports/rumors of movements elsewhere. What if there is another incursion in a strategic area, one that has the potential to become a full breakthrough?

Interesting and interesting. Given the limitations on Russia’s conventional assets (and critical items within same), it could set the stage for two to three different options if things stay conventional.

Now, Russia may well threaten again to go non-conventional. So far, it’s all been threats and that is exactly what the apparent tire burning in the cooling tower in Russian-occupied Ukraine yesterday was: a threat. Do I still believe that Vladimir would torch Ukraine if he can’t have it? Yes. Do I think that if he gives the order it will be carried out? Insufficient data, but I’m starting to get the idea that at least some people within a certain red-brick fort may have figured out that it might not be a good idea to do so. For all there are those fanatical and ignorant of operational realities that would try to go unconventional or scorched-earth, there may be reason to believe that at least some may be getting a glimpse out of the bubbles. We can but hope.

Meantime, given that no one outside of Ukraine really seems to know what is going on and what is planned, I plan to sit back, relax as much as I can, and wait. This has been an incredibly smart operation so far, and I hope it continues to be so. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE I: Given a discussion with Francis in the comments, thought I should link to my posts on nuclear war and preparedness. In those posts, there is discussion on reliability and more from myself and others who know of which they speak. Some of it is in the comments, and some are posts. Enjoy.

July 4, 1776

Well, it was really supposed to be July 2, but… Amazing words, and you really should look up the price paid by many of those who signed this document. Sacrifice is not giving up a latte, or your favorite coffee creamer for a few days: they pledged their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor and paid that price.

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

D-Day

Blackfive is gone, so the posts I did then are as well. However, here is a bit I published on X today.

Had the honor of covering D-Day anniversary a few years ago, and really wish I could be there again today. Met some amazing men and women, who are rapidly leaving this world. Their stories are amazing, to be polite.

Walked with a man, who had landed on Utah that day, as he took his walker cross country at PDH because the path would have been three times as long. He looked around, shook his head, and said “…I thought we had it bad…”

He also shooed off his daughter so he could tell me some of the tales of things he had done in England before that day. 🙂

I met a Brit who had to play dead twice as he went inland. Like pretty much all I met, he was convinced others were the heroes and he was just a bloke who survived.

Or the lady who had been Resistance, who was captured, tortured, escaped, and lived. Her captors and torturers, well, not so much. That sweet grandmotherly type making you the sweets was a true badass back in the day, and I wouldn’t want to cross her today.

Loved watching an old soldier blush as a 30-something French young lady came up, hugged him, kissed him (well) and said “Thank you for my freedom.” He blushed, but he straightend up as he had in youth, and don’t think the smile left him the rest of that day.

So many songs to sing of that day, and they are leaving us fast. Remember them, honor them, this day and forevermore.

An Aside: Back when I was younger, on my first visit to Normandy, I spent some time at Omaha and decided to try going up from the beach to the top of one of the bluffs where such efforts were allowed (at least at the time). I have at various times then and since paced off the emplacements, studied the lines of fire, and am amazed that any survived.

Few people truly realize today that on the eastern part of Omaha, the German machine guns and other delights were literally only a few yards from the normal tide line — and those positions held until well into the afternoon. In fact, one German gunner who finally did pull out, hid his machine gun in the woods between there and the nearest village. Never did say where as he refused to give it to the French and the French would not allow it to be given to the Americans. Stubborn bunch.

The fighting was intense and often at incredibly short ranges. The bluffs may not have been cliffs like PDH, but they were not an easy climb. That Omaha was taken amazes me to this day, and it was done so through more blood and sacrifice than can be imagined. The troops coming in on all the beaches had to cover hundreds of yards in places before hitting the true shore, as they had waited on a historic low tide to help deal with all the obstacles.

Omaha, bloody Omaha. There are no words for thee.

Remember them this day. In the words of Laurence Binyon:

“They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:

Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.

At the going down of the sun and in the morning

We will remember them.”

Some Snow Memories

Growing up in Macon, Georgia, snow was a bit of a rarity. When it did hit, a quarter inch could effectively shut down the city. There were no plows, salt trucks, or even snow shovels unless someone had moved there with one. I didn’t have my first white Christmas until I moved up here to Indiana. Been there, done that, a couple of times now and am good with not doing it again to be honest.

Our recent snow here was not bad by local standards, but the sub-zero temps were not fun. Something to do with critters sparked a bit of memory from the one real snow Macon has gotten in my lifetime. The great snow of ’73.

When I say great snow, I’m not joking. Here, 20+ inches in a bad storm isn’t really uncommon. In Macon, getting around 18 inches (what we measured, not sure the official measurement) was catastrophic. That’s what hit us, and everything did indeed shut down, including the power. Think that’s where I got my first large lesson on practical preparedness.

When my parents built the house, Dad had insisted on gas lines being run with outlets in key spots. Out in one of the utility rooms, we had old-school gas radiant heaters. They got cleaned up, brought inside, and hooked up so our house stayed warm. Had some of the neighbors come over for warm-up sessions since they had no heat. The government not having f’ed up gas stoves in the name of safety and efficiency at that point, our gas stove with those evil pilot lights worked like a charm, as did the oven. So, hot food, hot drinks, warm-up spot, we did right by the neighbors. Between flashlights, candles, and lamps, we had light too.

I think our beagle, Ralph, was over the whole thing before anyone else. When it first was snowing and all were home safe, it was a great adventure. The dog and I both had a blast playing in the snow. Soon enough, however, the snow was so deep we could barely see the tip of Ralph’s tail moving across the back yard. Could not see him at all, other than the tail. When he made it to the sliding glass door to come in, the look on his face clearly conveyed his opinion that this was bull****. He only went out when he absolutely had to go after that point.

For some reason I think Dad did have a scoop shovel, so we could clear a little bit at need. However, we and the rest of Macon pretty much had to wait for things to melt before the city could reopen. I remember that some smartass town in Alaska sent the mayor a single snow shovel as a gift to help with next time.

Just an odd memory that popped up, and one that made me laugh remembering the dog having to play snow shark…

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Those who don’t learn history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. If you don’t teach history, it is much easier to deliberately repeat it because the marks don’t know any better. Also, keep in mind that it’s not a perfect repetition as there are some differences with each repeat.

Sarah has a good post up on history, red of tooth and claw, and why what happened Oct. 7 is not a surprise in a historical context. In fact, I agree it probably is the norm in more parts of the world than people think.

I simply watch our borders, especially the Southern, and all the military-age males who are coming in all alone. Quite a few of them are from the Middle East as well as other Muslim countries. It is documented that hundreds have made it in, one wonders what the real numbers are given the millions of people that have been allowed to flood in by the Biden Regency.

First the Saturday people. Then the Sunday. They say what they mean, and we should be making note of it. If you think it can’t happen here…

Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Be prepared.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Past Reading For A Better Future

I’d been planning to write this post for a while, but had wanted to approach it a bit differently. Yesterday’s post, however, reinforced the need to get this out there. For all that I think a number of schemes have gone south on people, I am very much afraid we are in for interesting times. How much so, well, that’s part of the question.

While some of this does very much apply to the political and other struggles to come, much of it looks beyond those to what comes after.

Regime change, be it from within or without, is a daunting task. It takes far more than a mere force of arms to effect such. It does indeed quite often take arms, but it also takes education, the shaping and sharing of public opinion, a hope if not a plan for something better, and acts of political will. It takes a cadre of sharp and dedicated people who understand not only what’s at stake, but the security to plan and implement those plans.

Historically, most revolutions fail. From the Gunpowder Plot to the Whiskey Rebellion, from the Nubian Revolt in ancient Egypt to the Rebellion of the Three Guards in ancient China, few revolutions succeed. Of those that meet the immediate goal and win the immediate victory, they often rapidly lose the peace with extreme and brutal results. The French Revolution being but one example.

As such, few today (particularly amongst the younger generations) appreciate just how unique and unusual the American Revolution is from almost any vantage point. The Founding Fathers not only laid the philosophical groundwork within the colonies (shaping public opinion), but also the diplomatic and logistical groundwork needed for success. Success being not just overthrowing the Crown, but in establishing over time a novel government founded on the belief that reasonable people could make decisions on their own not only in their best interest, but in the best interest of the country as a whole.

Philosophically, it is a novel and still relatively new idea. Historically, the concept had been that the peasants could not and were not capable of self-rule and therefore needed kings and nobles (however they were labeled) to make such decisions for them. Thus, the new nation that was the United States became known to many as “The Great Experiment.” For all that there had been various Republics before (to appease the pedantic) none had truly taken the concept as far as did our Founding Fathers.

Why and how they did so lies in what they read, and the public debates and discussions of same. It also owes a small bit to the fiction they enjoyed, and shared with each other, spouses, and in some cases the public. All of this presented a common frame of reference that spanned all strata of colonial society. That common frame of reference is something that existed up until the last century, and it’s wanton and willful destruction is a topic for another day.

What we desperately need now and in the days ahead is to re-establish that common framework and add to it. Not to foment revolution, rather, to remind ourselves of the true philosophical foundations of our government and to provide goals for securing individual liberty no matter what may come. To ensuring that current generations, especially the younger, understand the concepts of Natural Law and proper discourse.

However, allow me to start with some of the fiction that our Founding Fathers read, and add to it a bit.

The Expedition of Humphrey Clinker – Tobias Smollett

Beauty and the Beast – Jeanne-Marie Le Prince de Beaumont

Tristram Shandy – Laurence Sterne

To those I would add: The Honor Harrington series by David Weber; Troy Rising series by John Ringo; The Probability Broach by L. Neil Smith; and the 1632 series by Eric Flint (et al). Feel free to add to this list in the comments.

Now, given the rampant censorship, the idea that words are violence, and a general loathing of actual discourse in today’s youth (and others) a book that caught the eye of the Founding Fathers was Rules of Civility by Brookhiser. There was another that is slipping my mind on civil discourse (stupid lightning) that helped set the stage for the discussions and debates that preceded the Revolution. If anyone knows which it was, or if you have suggestions for more modern takes that encourage respect, consideration, and discourse, please add them to the comments.

As for the other works that set the stage for what became America, go here. The list is extensive and while I do have my favorites, a perusal of most of these is rewarding all on its own. As is reading the letters and debates (Federalist Papers for one example) that surround the move from the Articles of Confederation to what became our Constitution.

The Constitution, with the Bill of Rights, is one of the most amazing documents of governance ever written. Could it be improved? Perhaps. Personally I’d love to slip term limits and some additional blocks on the expansion of Federal power into it, but I’m biased.

Civics needs to be restored as a part of our education, be it in schools or unofficially through other means. Understanding our nation, it’s founding, and the philosophical framework of The Great Experiment is essential to the Republic and to our future. It is even more important to navigating interesting times and what lies after.

Knowing why the Founding Fathers made the choices they did, not just in governance, but in deciding when and how to act and the framework that went into the Revolution and what came after is still important today. I suspect it may be even more so to the future. Knowing these things is a way to avoid mistakes and excesses, and to ensuring the continuation of the Republic.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Stolen F-35?

Sarah A. Hoyt has raised the possibility that the missing F-35 has been “stolen.” Rather, it has been given by corrupt figures in the military and government to China. That the incident and ejection have been faked to cover up that action.

I will state that such is a possibility. I do not, however, see it as a probability at this time. Before I get into some of that, let me preface with a few remarks and conditions. My own ejection training is a decade or two out of date, and was primarily focused on two-seat fighters. I got the training while getting my physiological training certificate at Little Rock. When it comes to ejection systems, I am most familiar with the ACESII system which used to be quite the thing.

Some quick notes. First, ejection is NOT fun as you are subjected to a large number of G’s and potentially some other delights. Common injuries were neck and back, though broken limbs (arms and legs) were not uncommon on some previous systems as if you didn’t have them in the right spot/position, they not only caught force they could also catch parts of the plane as you rapidly left it. Ouch.

Second, another common accident was having the person ejecting forget to transfer their oxygen hose from the main panel to the seat bottle. The little green apple of the seat bottle is your friend. There is a reason that used to be practiced during both physiological and ejection training. If you don’t remember to do that, as you leave the plane the mask is rather violently ripped from your face and helmet, and often did bad things to your neck and sometimes to your face and neck. Failing to switch fell under the category of “Very Bad Thing” as a result.

Third, the activation of an ejection seat usually triggers a beacon to help guide SAR to the downed pilot. This is separate from any Emergency Locator Beacon (ELB) on the plane itself. As an FYI, on civilian planes it is possible to manually activate the ELB, my memory is fuzzy (stupid lightning) on military craft. Seem to recall that it depended on the aircraft. Yes, military craft do tend to have such to aid in recovery (or destruction at need).

Fourth, no matter the system, the canopy goes bye bye in the process. In a normal ejection per my training, a charge blew the canopy back and away so you didn’t end up like Goose in Top Gun. Also, if your seat failed when you pulled the cord, the alternative was to raise the canopy and let the slipstream rip it off. As it did so, a lanyard was yanked and the secondary system (hopefully) would succeed where the primary failed. Today, you have that, canopies that allegedly fragment, and others — like the F-35 — that split in two so you can get safely launched. See here, here, and here for more info on the F-35 system.

The system in the F-35 works at ground level, which is quite an improvement as earlier system really needed you at 200 feet or higher to work properly. There are some other wrinkles that are fascinating including that it can apparently act automatically without pilot input.

BTW, putting the plane on autopilot when departing mid-flight goes back to WWII. You wanted/needed a steady platform as there were no ejection seats, and if the plane wasn’t under control of the auotpilot or a courageous pilot, it tended to do maneuvers that prevented the crew from leaving. Training was (is?) to do everything you can to hold it steady or to have the plane hold things steady. It makes your departure much smoother and helps prevent any number of injuries. It is interesting to note that some aircraft just keep plugging along after the pilot has left, while others tend to go immediately out of control.

UPDATE: See this comment for one such incident in the late 80s.

In this case, the pilot was apparently seen coming down under canopy, more details here. Side note, glad to see AvLeak is still around. Could it have been faked, such as pushing him in a seat out the back of a transport? Sure. But, no such plane appears to have been nearby at the time. Two, if there were, guarantee a number of the Aviation OSINT folk would have been talking about it by now. Expect to see some serious digging by these fine folks soon.

For all it is highly automated, and features MAGIC CARPET and other delights, it’s really not capable of automated landing. It can get darned close I’m told, but not there. FYI, the old MLS (such as on the Shuttle and other craft) never did truly work as advertised I’m told. We are getting closer, but not there yet. So, the idea of programming the plane to keep flying, go full stealth, and land at an undisclosed location without human intervention is rather unlikely.

Which brings us to the other fly in the ointment. From a purely intel/black ops standpoint, using this type of event to steal one is not very likely. In fact, I can think of a couple of dozen reasons not to do it this way. KISS rules, and I’m not talking the band. Doing it this way violates KISS in so many ways I can’t count them all. In short, secrets keep the fewer are involved. When you court the public, flight trackers, a wingman, and a host of others involved, you are NOT keeping it simple in the ways that count.

Frankly, if I were to want to do a public disappearance, it would be one plane, over water. The fewer who know what is going on, the better. Actually, the easiest way to get one and ship it to the enemy would be via paperwork and that is frighteningly easy to do. No fuss, no muss, no real paper trail, and it would only need a very small number of people to make it happen. That’s also about as far as I’m going to go on that too.

Now, I admit I’m more than a little curious why the transponder quit working and why no ELB (yet). In defense of the transponder, having a rocket motor go off right in front of you can be a bit disconcerting. If the plane went down in water, the ELB is going to be problematic to detect if it works.

Right now, I’m leaning towards the plane having remained in auto pilot and it did some form of soft landing, most likely in water. If it had done a soft landing on land, odds are we should have had some sign of it but that is not guaranteed. Until we have more data, all we can do is speculate. Again, I’m leaning towards the F-35 doing a modern version of a WWII ghost plane, but until we have hard data…

UPDATE: I was wrong about water, it did indeed apparently hit on land. Sad thing is, at this point, even if every part matches it won’t really matter.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Missing Pt. 2

Okay, part one was tongue in cheek. But, this is the stuff of legends. Did it crash into a lake? Did it just come down somewhere relatively intact? Did it go down at sea?

If you go back and read about aviation in WWII, you are going to come across a number of documented stories where planes made it back to England — without their crews. One I remember reading about, the crew bailed out as the plane was loosing altitude such that the didn’t think it would clear the coast. So, they all bailed out. This lightened the load such that the plane not only cleared the coast, it did a near perfect belly landing at the field from which it had departed. Freaked the ever living out of the people there when they found no crewmembers inside.

I seem to recall the late, great, Martin Caidin writing about some of these, including an incident he witnessed during a commemoration flight.

A lot of modern planes, however, don’t do well if they lose computer control and such. In fact, a couple of them will just about come apart if they lose such controls at speed. However, if they keep that control and are on a steady path via autopilot, who knows?

So, go back and read up on some of the ghost planes of WWII. It’s fun and it says a lot about how rugged the planes then truly were. Only time will tell if we are about to add a modern tale to the mix.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.