Category: History

It’s Not Just Here

Over at Instapundit this moring, Sarah A. Hoyt linked to a good post at Behind The Black on how the left has only a little time left to stop the violence. Sarah noted that she hoped we might yet walk the knife edge and avoid the horrible alternative. She’s right about that, as such will change not just us, but the world.

The problem is, we are not just walking a knife edge here. The President just noted earlier that the violence is because they (the progressives) are out of other options and the public is rather overwhelmingly in favor of the actions being taken (deportation of criminals being but one). Which is why Portland, Chicago, and other locations are trying their best to claim the mantle of George S. James, and Pritzker seems to see himself as Jefferson Davis.

I would argue that he is at least five Jefferson Davis’s, at least in volume. I would further argue that despite their delusions, neither Pritzker, Noisome, nor any others involved are anywhere close to being Gen. Beauregard. I futher agree with Victor Davis Hanson that Pritzker et al are indeed “neo-confederate nullificationists.” If they keep going, they are likely to find out what happened to the real Davis, Walker, and others. The problem is, neither we nor the U.S. will be the same afterwards. The odds are good that if it gets out of hand, it won’t stay limited and no sane person wants Civil War 2.0.

But, the progressives are not sane by reasonable standards. They see power slipping away, funds drying up, and are already sold on violence being acceptable to force their twisted dreams into something resembling (vaguely) reality.

Big problem is, it’s not just here. Look at all the places where violence has started up after the Trump Gaza peace deal. Bree A. Dail noted it on X and she is right. Look at what is going on in England right now (for all that there is some hope, I truly do think it lost), not to mention Germany and France (strong lack of coverage here). The only places it isn’t flaring up are those countries that have been bucking the EU on forced immigration (cough Hungary cough). It really does look like a large-scale effort at revolution, or if they can’t be successful, ensuring the rest of us go down with them. And, yes, I do think those behind this are just that spiteful.

To add to the fun, consider also that Russia is getting increasingly desperate. Rather, in many respects, Vladimir is getting more and more desperate. Right now, I’m not sure what is going on with the power struggle as there are a lot of smoke and mirrors, a lot of disinformation (most aimed internal IMO), and a fair bit of confusion. If one thing I have heard is true, a long-time trusted advisor to Vladimir has been sacked and if true (note caveat) it is not good as that person opposed the invasion of Ukraine and has also opposed nuclear sabre-rattling and options. If he is indeed gone, that’s not good and Defcon Warning Systems is right with some of their concerns.

For all that I am still in the 20 percent club in regards traditional powers/stockpiles, any attempted use or even strong threat is going to have very bad results. There is no such thing as limited use, and given the growing membership in the nuclear club there is an increased chance of someone responding without consultation. That way lies madness.

But madness can seem at least borderline sane when you are facing a reversal of fortunes on the conventional front, growing manpower problems, growing attacks that are disrupting energy, transportation, agriculture, and more. Add in an unhappy populace and growing restiveness in the ranks of those who would like to replace you and… Desperate people do desperate things, and when your last pipeline to thoughts and information carefully kept outside your information bubble, which is in a silo and both are inside yet more bubbles, and decisions that have no connection with reality are easy to make.

I’m not so sure that the 20 percent club applies to newer nuclear powers either, such as China. Keep in mind that China is facing a lot of challenges and in his own way Winnie the Xi is growing as desperate at Vladimir. I think he’s got a better chance of holding on for now, but he’s fast approaching some go/no-go decisions on everything from Taiwan on to other economic and territorial ambitions. We are ill prepared to deal with any go decisions. Oh, and to add to the fun, if Vladimir and Russia get further into trouble, Xi would be more than happy to reclaim a good and important chunk of the Russian far east for China. They have long wanted it, and the resources, back.

In short, things could get hairy. We’ve been very lucky walking the knife blade so far. Fact is, aside from pointing things out and urging people to not respond to the provocations in a direct way, there’s not much I can do or that any of us can do. We can try to keep cool heads, and urge our leaders to the same. Other than that, the only option is prayer.

And, yes, I do pray not just for us to stay on the knife edge, but for us to get past things and move forward. If we don’t slip, there are some amazing things and times ahead of us. So, I turn the future over to the Lord and pray that he get us through this. I pray for peace, just peace, in the world. Among the several prayers I try to say everyday is one I modified a while back. It was originally done for one country under communism, but I think almost every European country that ended up under communism had it’s own version. Mine is:

Prayer for the Salvation of Earth

O Lord Jesus Christ our God, forgive our iniquities. Through the interceessions of Thy most pure Mother, save the suffering people of Earth from the yoke of the godless authority. Amen.

For those who don’t know, the “yoke of the godless authority” is that of communism, which means communism and socialism of all types as they are simply parts of the same coin. Doesn’t matter if “true” communism, Soviet “socialism” that was communism, National Socialism, or any other facet of the ultra-leftest creed that is envy, despair, and slavery. The woke, aka progressive left, WEF-types, etc. are all of the same coin, and they are all the godless authority who seek to destroy freedom and religion. Hence, my prayer which I’ve been saying since before the last election. I hope you might join me in it.

Yes, things are happening all over and the push to foment violence and violent response is not limited to just the U.S. There are other flashpoints that exist, but they are also linked in many ways to this desperate progressive push.

Against it, let me quote “Hold the Line!” There is likely to be a blood-price paid, but with God’s Grace we can walk the knife edge to safer and better times. Pray that we do, and that we retain cool heads no matter what. I really do need to do a post one day soon on all the good things I see coming if we can but hold the line. We truly can have a golden age, if we can hold on through these interesting times.

Pray, have Faith, and hang in there. As part of that, be prepared. Keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

9/11

In the past, this has been a hard day for me. I watched it unfold at work at NASA, made the calls duty required, and wondered. I knew someone who was supposed to be in the towers that day (they lived, co-worker changed out with them), and had friends in the Pentagon. Still get a smile at the NASA worker who thought President Bush had been hit in the knee by someone with a baseball bat when I called out to my boss (former SAC) that the President was NEACAPed (i.e. AF One was in the air and had assumed duty as the National Emergency Airborne Command Post). A day of horror, a day we kept waiting for the other shoe to drop, yet also a day when we still had hope.

Around the country, I was aware of specialized burn and trauma centers activating emergency plans and preparing for a flood of victims from NYC and DC. I heard that every military and civilian Nightingale (medical evac planes) went to hot pad status. And waited in vain.

No survivors came out of the wreckage. No wounded. Only the dead and later I watched as NYFD worked to find the dead even as the boots melted on their feet.

I remember them today. The living and the dead. God Bless Rick Rescorla and all those like him who went in and tried to save lives. Rick was last seen going back up a third time (I think) trying to save yet more when he had already saved hundreds. If you don’t know his song, you should. It is well worth knowing and singing unto the generations.

The memories of that day fade a bit each year, and with it the raw emotion. Today, though, I feel worse than I have in years. It’s not just the assassination yesterday (and, yes, I suspect it was done in part to tie into today) and what it means for the social compact and a representative democracy. Thing is, I just can’t shake the feeling that the people behind the Biden Regency let in such a large number of people who bear America ill-will because they were planning something much larger and worse than the first 9/11.

Such an attack could be used for either cementing power for a long, long time; or, it could be used as a Gotterdamerung if they lost. Either way would work for those pulling the strings. I very much agree with Sarah that a wounded/dying beast is far more dangerous, and woke is wounded and dying. Thing is, the win of individual liberty and the principles of the Great Experiment is not guaranteed even now. Stupidity can still set us back decades, or even centuries potentially though I prefer to think optimistically. As I’ve said before, woke is not just going to roll over and call the game.

We can survive a good bit, and push forward for further victories. Provided stupidity doesn’t get in more hits. We do not want the switch to flip, and I have to admit I never thought of Charlie as the first target. Honestly, I thought they would go at Trump (the boogie man in their fevered dreams), JD (largest real threat), or Pete (who is working hard to turn around the military) first. For that matter, I half expected a go at part of the Supreme Court, which Schumer and company have pushed hard and long.

Thing is, they couldn’t have picked a worse target (but then again, they are stupid). Charlie stood for discourse, debate, and discussion. They hated him because he was effective. In killing him, they have created a secular and religious martyr. When you cut out someone’s tongue, you do it because their words scare you and you don’t want them heard. Taking out the man who stood for discourse really was incredibly stupid as you have just confirmed his words as dangerous to you, and indicated in the strongest way that they were true and powerful. Add to it that you took out a Christian who spread the word and encouraged others to Christ, and you have created a religious martyr on top of that. Synergy is guaranteed to take that double whammy and turn it into something even more powerful.

I really do hope for the best case, and that TPUSA grows by leaps and bounds. Didn’t know him personally, but think he would be delighted if that happened. Worst case is, of course, that the thousands he reached have been shown that peaceful discourse is not going to happen, and… Not the way I hope or want things to go. The people behind this (and I don’t think it happened in isolation) truly failed to consider first or second order effects, much less third. Awakened a sleeping giant? Maybe. Shown thousands that peace is not an option, and that violence will come for them who are already shunned and marginalized by the woke? Oh yes. The only question is the response. Hence my first choice above.

More than ever, I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. And praying that sanity, and not stupidity, rules the day.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Sake

On a nicer and more tasty subject, I want to commend to you two posts (so far) about Sake from Francis Turner at Lesser Known Japan. One of the more educational nights I spent in Japan years back was sitting at a bar enjoying a conversational lecture on the history of Sake. The lecture was fascinating and the four samples of different styles of Sake were delicious and very intoxicating. The man giving the lecture was actually an expat Israeli, who had studied Japanese history and loved sharing the history of the drink. In earlier times, for instance, it was much more a liqueur or cordial. Some of the older forms of Sake pack quite the punch.

Here is Part One of his series; and, here is Part Two. There is more to come. Given the subject, I suspect much more to come. It is a fascinating bit of history, culinary and otherwise. Go check them out, and if you are ever looking at going to Japan, the site is full of treasures regular tourists rarely see. And, if you can’t go, you can find a number of the brands he talks about here and doing a tasting should be a lot of fun.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Better Than MilSpec

A few days ago, in an author’s forum on an almost deserted corner of anti-social media, a fan posted this.

I pointed out (as has the author, who’s fan group this was posted in, has said many times) that the colonists had better than milspec, and that is part of what made the difference in the American Revolution. The usual group of pedants came forth then (why do you hate potatoes, they had potatoes back then, you didn’t write an encyclopedia entry outlining every possible variant, etc.) and missed two key points. One, I wasn’t out to write an encyclopedia entry (though I have written the firearms sections for a major technology encyclopedia back when there were still such things) but a one line response; and, that the technological superiority extended beyond the obvious.

It’s one of my big problems with the NFA and other “taxes” and open regulations: it limits the ability to innovate and the ability of the average citizen to have not just milspec (which frankly often sucks in base form) but better than milspec. The colonists had rifles as they were accurate and made it a more sure proposition to be able to feed their family. Their muskets could also be rather innovative. If you are not familiar with the term “lock, stock, and barrel” then you are not going to understand how and why the colonists tended to buy the best they could and got delightfully innovative as soon as they could do so.

Fact is, most firearms innovations have come from outside the government. Take a look back around the Revolution, then move forward and while many hoped to make their money selling to the government, the innovations came from outside the government. Even today, that still holds true in my opinion. Note, however, that the government through the ATF and other agencies does all it can to hamper such development and innovation these days.

Me, I don’t want milspec, I want better than milspec. That holds true for firearms, communications gear, and more. I want rugged, dependable, reliable (which, yes, can be different from dependable), and cost effective. Why buy stock when you can often get far better “add ons” and custom for the same cost or less. Milspec is a best a good place to start. It is very easy to make it better in many cases.

Which is why I have a serious question for Elon and the new third party (more on that soon): don’t tell me you support the 2nd amendment and expect me to take you at your word. You’ve said more than once that you believed in regulating and restricting. I want specifics out of you, and in particular I want to know where you stand on repealing the NFA and other “taxes” and open regulations. I want it spelled out in detail.

I also want the NFA and such gone. It’s time to ensure that the Citizens of the Republic not only have milspec, but better than milspec. If you are proud that you have milspec, good on you you’re special. If you have made sure you have better than milspec, whether you admit it or not, you’re my type of people. I don’t care if it’s a better iron sight or using a 2-cent O-ring to improve the water resistance of an electronic device (versus the $2k special container sold to the government), you’ve still improved it and made it better than milspec.

The Revolution wasn’t all rifles versus muskets. It was much more complex and frankly far more rich from a technological standpoint than the pedants will ever truly realize. I think they fail to realize some of the true importance of Saba, but that’s for another day. What matters is that in more than one way the colonists had better than the milspec of the day. It’s what we need today as well. Just a thought.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Real No Kings Day

Consider this the introduction to the Great Experiment that is the Constitutional Republic that is the United States of America:

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Memorial Day 2025

I am hoping to go raise a glass to/with them in just a bit. Meantime, enjoy the day but do take a minute to think about, remember, and pray for those who gave all for this country, from our founding until now. I pray for them all, and I especially remember:

ENS Albert Foster Powers, MIA 1945 Japan
LCPL Bill Stelpflug, Beirut
COL Rick Rescorla, NY 9/11
SPC Ryan Dallam, Iraq
PFC Damian Lopez, Iraq
SPC Marieo Guerrero, Iraq
CPT Anthony Palermo, Iraq
SPC David Behrle, Iraq
SPC Joseph Gilmore, Iraq
PFC Travis Haslip, Iraq
SGT Jean Medlin, Iraq
SSG Christopher Moore, Iraq
PVT Alexander Varela, Iraq
LCPL Jeremy W. Burris, Iraq
SSG Brian Cowdrey, Afghanistan
MAJ Andrew Olmstead, Iraq
CPT Carroll LeFon, CONUS

Thank you Lord that such men lived, and heeded the call to protect and defend. We are all the richer and the better for them and their brothers and sisters who lived the words “No greater love…” You are remembered. You are not forgotten. You are missed. God Bless.

Into The Light: Michael Ledeen

His is not a name well known to most, which is a shame in some ways. Some people have an outsized impact on history, and Michael Ledeen is one of them. I never met him in person, and wish I had done so.

I think I’ve mentioned before that it took a while for Heinlein and others to kick in, and in my early years I was a touch blue as it were. In fact, I have to admit, Reagan (or at least the media reports about him) scared me a bit when he was first elected. That said, by the time he left office, if he had asked me to get something out of Satan’s desk for him, I would have done my best to pull that off. While that change was mostly him (another I would have liked to have met in person, didn’t get to at the Shuttle landing), part of that change and the change in my view of the world came from Michael Ledeen.

It was Michael who was behind part of the strategy that brought down the Soviet Union, and he was involved in many more things beyond that. His take on Iran is one I hope is being well studied and utilized by the current administration. He was not a fan of military intervention, but worked tirelessly to help dissidents around the world achieve freedom and liberty on their own.

His work in ending the Cold War without things getting hot is not likely to be fully known or appreciated, nor will his many other contributions to this world. Godspeed Sir!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About That Signal “Leak”

In part to play devil’s advocate, and in part because if one theory is right my hat is off to this administration as an op like this has not been pulled off in a decade or two. I have suspicions, but will note that I will wait to see what comes out — and will also note you need to pay close attention to phrasing then. For now, enjoy some thoughts sparked by an online discussion with Tony Katz (website) this morning. I may have to do a little tap dancing in spots, but…

Three scenarios came to mind when I first heard about this. Let’s take a look at those options.

First, that this was done as a deliberate effort to harm the administration. Given the amount of resistance, malicious compliance, and theatrical temper tantrums (and threats to sell info to our enemies) it is a valid concern. Mitigating it is that Michael Waltz (not to be confused with the other) is hand-picked by Trump, former Greenie Beanie, former Congrescritter, etc., etc., etc. Still needs to be investigated, but would be surprised if this was the case.

Second, that this was done accidentally. Plausible. Very plausible even. Stuff happens and it would not be the first time someone got added to an e-mail or other chain that proved embarrassing. It has happened a couple of times to me, and in one case I was glad for the confirmation of where I stood and what was happening in regards one situation. Embarrassing (and a potential liability) for them, good intel for me. I’m sure some of you can add some similar situations in the comments. If it was an accident, a whacking of knuckles or such is warranted.

The third option is where this gets fun. Let’s start with something almost everyone who has been around government knows, but also ignores to some extent.

The fact is, governments send each other messages by a variety of means. There are the official messages, couched in careful diplomatic niceties, that always accent the positive even when those governments hate each other’s guts. You play nice as that is expected and it’s usually a good way to keep tensions at a point just short of war. It’s a way to shore up relationships, or to strengthen them. I will caveat that smart people realize that governments do not have friends, they have allies — some good, some not so much.

However, official channels are limited and usually anything but frank. J.D. Vance’s comments to European leaders a few weeks ago were refreshingly frank for many of us, and considered a breach of proper manners by many officials. It is rare for such comments to be made in any official capacity. Which is why, for not years but even centuries, there have been unofficial channels.

Such activities have often been lumped in with the history of intelligence operations, which is not really where they belong (IMO) but if interested you can find some fascinating examples in European history. To be honest, if you look at Japanese history there are some good examples. It is also worth noting that when there wasn’t such, or something happened to that channel, bad things like unexpected wars or “accidental” battles took place. Net result, wise leaders (or those who served as éminence grise or consigliere) made sure such were in place.

The fact is, since it can’t be said in public that Government A thinks Government B (especially if they are ostensible allies) is a bunch of corrupt poopy-heads that are being stupid, you need a means to get that message to the other side unofficially. There are other such messages that often need to be sent, usually along the lines of “we see you” and “don’t do that again.” Then there’s a third level of highly unofficial when accidents happen that never happened. Governments rarely admit to losing people, aircraft, subs (or being responsible for same) in circumstances that never officially happened. Nor will we discuss the disappearance of agents, operatives, or others; nor the discovery of the bodies of such on doorsteps or in staged compromising circumstances.

Instead, for today, let’s focus on the need to get unofficial information between governments. If you want a number of examples, look at the information flow between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. There was quite a bit of unofficial flow, which ranged from carefully staged leaks (or, possibly, operations on par with The Man Who Wasn’t There in WWII) to using businessmen and journalists as conduits. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, a LOT of essential discussion was channeled through a journalist both sides trusted.

It is important to note that not all of these conduits were aware they were being used to send messages. Sometimes it was a one-time thing, sometimes it was done as a part of normal business operations so as to keep the person in the dark. And, sometimes, it is rumored, it was done to some poor sap that had PO’d one side or another and got used and was figuratively (and literally) disposed of afterwards.

Sometimes, using someone is made very easy by the person being used. They can be greedy, needy, of limited trustworthiness, or other flaws that make it easy to use them. You know them and their flaws, their triggers, etc. Some of the people used before have been, er, interesting, to be polite. They also have spanned the strata of society.

Which is why I find it believable that Jeffrey Goldberg may have been a “deliberate accident.” If you wanted to get the word to some allies that patience is running thin with them, that their freeloading needs to stop, that some potential major changes are heading their way, and do so in a way that made such clear without it being an official communication, you could count on him to get it out.

I’m willing to bet a donut or two that he had already contacted any number of European leaders or his contacts in their offices to share this information. The man hates Trump and his admin with a passion, and he would see this as a means to hurt them. Keeping quiet in this case is something I don’t think he literally do. So, get in touch, share, reeeeeee a bit, and probably let them know he was going to publish but give them some time so they were ready to pounce when the time came.

Now, he has gone public and if the message didn’t get sent before it sure has now. Everyone knows what the admin thinks of various governments and entities. I will note that I have not read every word; but, what I have read is not classified nor a war plan. It may have given Goldberg a couple hours notice of what was going to happen, but nothing that could have prevented it. In short, it is really a nothingburger operationally, and the only concern lies in which scenario is correct.

A final thought on this track is that by going public Goldberg has, IMO, AD’d himself as he jammed his pistol into his pants. He on some levels burned a source; he verified what a lot of people thought of him and his trustworthiness; and, he has verified that he will put politics ahead of national interest. This is going to burn him even with people who “officially” support him right now in the long term. In the twisty murky world of leaks and sources, burning a source for almost any reason puts people off on trusting you. If you know someone can’t keep a secret, you don’t share truly important things with them. If you show you are a partisan hack to the world, even those on your side are going to start treating you as such.

That what has happened is effectively a self-immolation, is just icing on the cake from an ops standpoint. When I said on social media yesterday that things fit, this is what I am talking about. You know the messages got out, you know some of the results, and in the process you let an avowed enemy do harm to themselves.

So, I tend to be a bit suspicious that this could have been a very deliberate accident. As for what it really is, we likely won’t know for a while. One of the things I have loved about the current Trump administration is the lack of leaks. They have been amazingly good at OPSEC, which again, is a tick in favor of the third option.

It is a point to consider, and I hope you will do so. We will find out the truth someday, and it will be interesting to find out for sure. I would be cautious accepting anything announced right now: it is custom to some extent to “obfuscate” or flat out lie immediately, especially if it can make an op work even better. Right now, my bet is this just doesn’t get mentioned and the comments made so far are all that are made. It would be the smart move, and so far Trump and company have been smart. We will see.

UPDATE I: Corrected a type, be to bet.

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The Great Escape: Remembering All, And The 50 Murdered

This is a repost of a previous post. I try to do this every year on the 24th, and sometimes I even get it done. I will be raising a toast to them this evening.

Today, I take the time to remember the 50. On this night, in 1944, prisoners of war staged a daring large-scale escape from Stalag Luft III. The movie is good, but isn’t accurate since it was a Royal Air Force show. All but three of the prisoners who escaped were recaptured, and of those, Adolph Hitler personally ordered the deaths of 50 of them. Today, I raise a glass to them, and to all who dared and risked all to do so.

If you want to know more, go here, here, here, and here.