Month: March 2022

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Is Vladimir getting good and accurate info in his briefings? No. Next question.

Seriously, the reports that he is not being told of reality should be unsurprising. He has special ways of dealing with those who disappoint him, which can even include their families. As such, if you think those who brief and advise him are being bluntly honest about things, I have a bridge for sale…

As for the reports that he and other leaders/oligarchs are spreading out to various bunkers, again, are you surprised? Forget the nuclear threat, there is a real and valid concern for Vladimir and those around him that efforts will be made to remove him — permanently. He’s been doing the whole “guess where I am” thing for a while, moving around at random to cut down on the odds of assassination.

Part of the problem with building that golden bridge so he has an out (that Biden has effectively nuked) is that Vladimir himself has created a good bit of the problem that faces him and others: failure equals death. In fact, those that have failed him (and/or the Rodina in his mind) have more than earned the gruesome deaths given them. The problem for Vladimir is that the precedent has been set, and he knows what HE would do in that situation to the person stepping down. To him and even unto his family.

For all the estrangement with family, and even with former mistresses and potential children, I suspect there is some concern there for what would happen to them. They are his blood, and that comes with a price. It would be one thing if the new administration went after them for money which he has used them to hide; but, such things rarely stop there.

This is the way things used to be before the great experiment that is the Republic that is the United States of America. Even the “normal” passing of a kingship from father to son could be fraught with peril. When it wasn’t normal, the bloodshed was often stupendous and the families of the loser faced slaughter and slavery. The idea was to destroy not only the person at the lead, but any and all legacy including genetic.

Which brings me to Donald Trump and the derangement of the left. Granny Wine Box of the family Venal just couldn’t put away her kangaroo suit after two failed impeachments, but brought about the January 6 farce being played out. Add to it all the different investigations (which have largely found nothing and gone nowhere) and efforts to destroy Trump and his family, and you have an end to the cornerstone of the Republic: the peaceful transition of power.

It is being made abundantly clear that any who oppose the so-called Elite will be destroyed. Between cancel culture, interference with banking, malicious prosecution and sentencing, and all the other things we see being touted in the media as just and proper, the peaceful transfer of power is dead. It will start with the courts, as each administration is tried and found guilty for crimes real and imagined. It will end in bloodshed.

In the past, even when it was clear that someone had broken the law, there was a reluctance to prosecute after they left office for fear of damaging that cornerstone. Today, the cornerstone is being hit by gleefully wielded jackhammers in an effort to destroy the personification of the threat to the Elites. That they still fail to grasp that Trump was between them and the threat says much.

Of course, like Vladimir did, they fail to grasp that they will be subject to the new rules and not exempted from them. What is happening right now with Vladimir is simply the normal version of the world in many respects, and the logical extension of destroying your political opponents. It is where the efforts now underway will lead if we let it.

Some food for thought this morning.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

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Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Over at Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds brings up a good point about maintenance and reliability. This applies to our systems as well as the systems of any other country.

I can’t get too far into efforts to ensure the reliability of our systems, but will note that you do have to test systems both as a whole and in parts. For example, solid rocket motors can develop cracks and fissures over time, especially if they are not properly stored. Just look back on the need to X-ray the remaining Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) solid motors after they were stored. The other type of testing is to actually fire the motors. I will say that you might enjoy checking out the Arnold Engineering Development Center AEDC site as it is (or was) the free world’s most comprehensive testing site.

Even with stringent quality control on manufacturing and thorough testing to determine lifespan and other issues, there are going to be failures large and small. It’s not just in movies that someone forgets to pull a pin or a weapon jams or fails to fire — it is real life. There’s some video out there of a mortar crew scrambling for safety after round “bloops” and basically falls out of the tube right in front of them.

While I won’t get into what Glenn was told about our systems, I would not be surprised at all on the figure given for the Russians, and given what we are learning about Russian maintenance, it could be optimistic. Like him, I have no desire to find out who is right. Keep in mind that their strategic launch system (Dead Hand) is dependent upon a system that will launch every time (and that we need to take out in boost phase if it does launch)…

I am also reminded that back too many years ago, when I first got into Soviet Watching, the Circular Error of Probability (CEP) for some of the Russian missiles were measured in miles, not feet or yards. CEP is a measure of the precision of the weapon, be it artillery or a missile. The more precise the weapon, the lower the CEP. Because they could not match (at the time) the precision of our missiles, they used huge warheads to try to make up for not being able to be sure of hitting the target directly. It was as our CEP improved that we could move into Multiple Independently targeted Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) making use of smaller warheads that were more effective.

Precision and reliability are one reason bombers are still a thing.

Legal Insurrection has a very good story up, which includes a link to a 2021 commentary by former Russian MP Nevzorov, who got right what almost every intelligence agency got wrong. I urge you to go read the entire article, but I am going to embed the video as it is positively scary on several levels.

Vladimir, Biden, and a host of others were unprepared for the amazing unity of the Ukrainian people this time around. Nevzorov wasn’t, he saw it last year. Two good reads on the unity and the intelligence failure are linked as food for thought.

As for Vladimir pulling back, don’t count on it. Redeploy and prepare to resume operations, I can believe. I can see him focusing on the Donbas for a bit, but you better believe that the “redeployments” for that are also designed to let him build up and try for Kyiv and the Southern Front again as soon as possible. If he truly were pulling back in a move to help bring about peace, I would expect to see different movements. He’s not about to give up now. Also, the admonition not to eat or drink anything at the peace talks is a very good idea.

As for Biden, his cheat sheet and double-down have gone well beyond being unhelpful. From them, it is clear that regime change is desired. Even if it is not, there is no one, anywhere, who doesn’t believe that it is at this point given the verbal spewings. Especially Vladimir. Rather than try to find or create an offramp or offramps, this administration has decided to blow any potential such structure off the map. The results of that are not going to be good.

By the way, if you are not reading Stephen Green’s work on what is going on, as well as his other writings, you are missing out. Vodka Pundit is a must read, and don’t just go with what he posts at Indy.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Burn Notice

I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off this morning, not at the cute television series, but rather the release by the Ukrainians of a list of more than 600 people they claim are Russian spies operating in Europe. Not just names, but a variety of information about them including financial in some cases.

I’m not even about to begin to speculate how accurate the list may be, but if even only a fraction of the people are as claimed, this is a huge blow to Russian intelligence operations in Europe. If it is mostly or completely accurate, it is a disaster of biblical proportions to FSB operations in Europe.

There are many different types of spies. You have those operating under diplomatic cover, who to be honest are quite often controllers and recruiters rather than out doing James Bond type stuff. It can happen, particularly on first assignments overseas, but they are supposed to be there in the open as it were. One reason they don’t do a lot of flashy stuff (if smart) is that part of the game was trying to make the enemy play “guess the spy” and make them split resources covering everyone. One exception was with military attaches, as pretty much everyone knew that they were spies even if they tried not to act like it. After all, you wanted them invited as observers, etc. so they could get information.

Then you have those who are posing as business owners, salespeople, journalists, and a host of other professions. All with very legitimate needs to travel, meet people, etc. All who had contacts and avoided the automatic assumption of being a spy associated with being a diplomat/politician.

Then you had the full covert agents, sometimes sleepers, that were infiltrated into countries with new IDs and covers, who took pains to never be associated with any government, etc. The KGB used to be very good at planting sleepers around the world, particularly Europe and the U.S.

Finally, you have those recruited in a target country. They had to be monitored, controlled, and provided means of dropping off information and messages. A good bit of that was controlled by those with diplomatic immunity, but could also find covert agents used in the chain of communications. Particularly where business or social led to frequent contact anyway. Potentially dangerous, but sometimes far less dangerous than dead drops.

The Ukrainian list blows the first two groups, if not the first three groups, out of the water. From the quick look I took, it seems more like groups two and three, but… Even if none from three are on this list, the handlers just got blown. They are cut off, potentially exposed, and on their own.

Even if no name on the list were accurate, the intense scrutiny this is going to place on these people and anyone linked even remotely to them, is going to severely hamper FSB operations in Europe, and likely elsewhere. Again, if it is accurate to any great degree, this is an unmitigated disaster that could hamper or cripple operations for years.

Bravo. Well played.

Monday Update

Well, we made it through the weekend though it remains to be seen how the weekend plays out. For those who missed the latest bits of Biden’s verbal incontinence, he: indicated that we would respond to any chemical attack with a chemical attack; he then went on to tell the 82nd what they would see when they arrived in the Ukraine; and, to top it off, he called for the removal of Putin — regime change.

For all that the White House valiantly strove to walk these comments back, the damage is done. In this case, the damage is severe. When you talk about using chemical or nuclear weapons like a loose cannon, the other side is going to view words and operations in that context. When you talk about sending in troops, they aren’t going to believe you when you say ‘just kidding.’ When you talk about regime change, which means the death of Putin, they actually are not out of line to regard those comments as “certainly alarming” and to “track the statements of the U.S. president in the most attentive way.”

Vladimir and others in the Kremlin do not have the liveliest regard for Biden to start with. Senile and an idiot may come up in non-public discussions, along with much stronger about Biden and those behind him in private, and it is no secret that Vladimir regards most Western leaders as corrupt hypocrites. With good cause in my opinion. He does see them as attacking him over things they do themselves; and, keep in mind that any attack on him is an attack on the Rodina and the dream of Russkiy Mir. Such attacks infuriate him and there are rumors that it is not a calm and collected response (to be polite).

So, thanks to diarrhea mouth, he has every reason to believe we want him dead and will encourage such; that we are going to send in troops; and, that we will use special weapons. Joy.

Now, add to this the abysmal and utter failures of both U.S. and Western intelligence over the last few years, but particularly this last year. The thing is, I’m sure somewhere down at the lowest ranks, there are people who diligently dug up the info and crafted decent analysis of that information and events. Almost every time you dig into a failure, you find that people had the parts but either through incompetence/mores or willful manipulation, such never got to the top.

The thing is, it’s not just in the West. Clearly, Vladimir’s own agencies let him down. It is interesting that both Biden and Vladimir “knew” that Kyiv would fall in two days. Equally, it is clear that didn’t happen. However, both made their responses based on that, and until this weekend, neither had changed course. This weekend, Vladimir did.

It is more than just the announcement that the Russians declaring that they had met their initial objective (think a cat doing that “I meant to do that” thing) and that now they would focus on the next goals and securing the Donbas. In some ways, they have no choice but to do that as weather/terrain and logistics make that and the South the only regions where they do much.

However, a message was sent in response to Biden’s comments. The attacks on the large supply depots in Lviv are both a message and an effort to start making the Ukraine change how it does things. As was noted by a spokesman, they are going to have to change to smaller depots and a lot more of them. It’s not unsurprising and in some respects it isn’t much, but the Russian’s have been dancing to the Ukrainian’s tune as it were, and wanted to see the Ukraine dance at least a beat or two to theirs.

I’m also watching the story of Ukrainian troops torturing POWs. If it is true, the Ukrainian government needs to investigate and act fast in terms of punishment. By itself, it could undo a lot of the goodwill the world has for the Ukraine. However, I also am wondering if this is disinformatia/maskirova coming out of Russia. Again, it could be done just to damage the image of the Ukraine (and weaken support); or, it could be aimed at Russian troops trying to slow the rate of desertion and surrender; or, it could also be part of a plan to justify a change in use of force/weapons. Both (all) sides have been doing some amazing propaganda, and I have to wonder where this falls.

I also find this article by Niall Ferguson to be both interesting and on some levels quite naive. He is correct that many in the halls of power speak history as the language of power. Putting things into a historical context makes it easier for many to understand. However, thinking that what is happening now equates to the past, rather than blazing new history, explains how the initial responses to a situation are so often wrong. Think generals at the start of a new war still fighting the old. It also offers a way to manipulate at the top by being tailored to their prejudices and mores via the convenient omission of parts of that historical context.

His analysis of what we are doing and why, seems pretty spot on to me. I also find his declaration that Vladimir won’t use nuclear to be charmingly naive. Which leads to his discussion of the Ukraine losing the war. While he has a point, I think he’s missing some things.

Frankly, I’m surprised that the attack out of Belarus has not already happened. That said, there are good reasons it hasn’t and some of that has to do with the sabotage of the logistics and transportation by those in Belarus who are opposed to the war and/or their government. For all that Lukashenko rules with an iron fist and was willing to hijack a plane to kidnap an opposition leader (with the aid of Vladimir), the natives are beyond restless. Right now, what is being done is largely cyber, but that may be changing. Lukashenko can send the troops in, but how well that will go is debatable and the Ukraine has had time to prepare — and I hope they have done so. So long as they can’t do a “lightning strike” and close the supply lines, this could well turn into another slogging match.

The East and the Donbas are where I think the Russians have the best chance because of weather, terrain, and the ability to get supplies to the troops. That said, I’m not prepared to declare it a “gimme” given how badly Russian Army has performed so far. Keep in mind that there are strong pockets of resistance and reports that the Russian rule in the two pockets has been so brutal that even some of the Russophiles are unhappy and would like to see the Russians gone.

The South is the question mark, and quite probably the schwerpunkt. If the Russians can take Odessa, the coast, and all the ports, it is over unless the Ukrainians can quickly retake part of the area. Without those ports, a viable independent Ukraine is unlikely. While Mr. Ferguson makes a good point, I think he misses how hard it will be for the Russians to take Odessa quickly. Can they do it, yes. Are they willing to commit the troops and supplies needed, and can they get them where they need them quickly and easily? That’s not as likely and the Ukrainians have just demonstrated that they can and will take a weapons system that can’t possibly be used to do X and use it to do X via the short-range ballistic attack on the LST.

There is also the upcoming peace talks. Though Vladimir’s word isn’t worth the spit behind it, they could end up offering a chance for both sides to set things aside for a while. Will Vladimir ever give up the dream of getting the full Ukraine back as the start of Russkiy Mir? No. That is an indelible part of the plan, and as Col. Kalugin noted Kyiv is the birthplace of Russia and as such highly desired.

While Mr. Ferguson does make some valid and good points, I think the reason he misses on some is that he believes Vladimir is focused on the past, on Imperial Russia. In some respects, he is; but, where he truly is focused is not the past but on creating a new, larger, better, greater Imperial Russia in Russkiy Mir. For all that he is aware of the past and speaks the language of history (do love Ferguson’s points on this!), he is focused on the future, not the past. He is seeking to take the plan for Russkiy Mir and make it real, with himself in the top spot.

For now, he has no other choice. There is no path for him to relinquish power and live, and a good bit of that is his own doing. That Biden keeps removing offramps via his verbal outbursts and actions, is not helping the situation. It is why Vladimir has not taken special weapons of any type off the table, and believes that the U.S. either won’t respond (despite what has been said) or that response can be controlled via manipulating the Biden administrations fear of WWIII. Or, very small chance, he may hold back simply because Biden is senile and might be crazier than he thinks and thus there is no way to control his response.

If Russian troops continue to be stalled. If the resistance in the Donbas is stronger than expected. If the Belarus attack is thwarted. If the attack on Odessa turns into another siege, then look to Vladimir to follow doctrine and employ special weapons. As I said earlier, I wonder about that video and if it could be the first of several such to get out and used to set the stage for such via maskirova. And if you want something to really make you wonder, why have radioactive materials apparently disappeared from Chernobyl when the Russians have plenty of such in their own stockpiles? What if “the Ukraine” or some of “its forces” suddenly make use of a dirty bomb of sorts? Never, ever underestimate the willingness of the Russian military and leadership to use disinformatia and maskirova. It’s doctrine, has been, is, and may always be. Just like the use of special weapons.

There’s more, but this is long enough, I’m tired, and have to go see a doc. Let’s see what the day brings. May yours bring you good things.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

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Noted

I don’t normally post on a Sunday, but did want to get this up for the record and as a note to myself to discuss further next week. The damage done by Biden’s bouts of verbal diarrhea can’t be overstated. It was the furthest thing from a ‘tear down this wall’ moment there can be (and you should be adding those who said it was to the lists you are keeping). Oh, and if you missed it, an E4B Nightwatch was deployed to England ahead of this trip. Interesting and interestinger…

Not A Lot To Add

There’s not a lot I can add to yesterday’s post and all the wonderful food for thought linked within. I will say that Biden’s ramblings at the NATO meeting were not helpful, and Vladimir has to be pretty confident he has little to nothing to fear no matter what he does.

I did have to laugh today at two things. First, the Russians have taken to kidnapping people, forcing them to make hostage videos saying they weren’t captured or kidnapped, but rescued and making them say thank you. That is just sad, and says quite loudly how bad the situation is for them. The second is that this was further reinforced by the announcement today that they have met their primary objective and now will focus on what they came for.

That has to be the biggest load of bullshit in a good while. I almost busted a gut laughing, as it’s like watching a cat screw up and try to do the “I meant to do that” routine. Moscow, and Putin, have to be steaming over how badly things have gone. Russia, and the Russian military, are now laughingstocks on the world stage, and for all they pretend otherwise, they know it and it is eating at them like acid.

Thursday Update

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday, but between having to go let the vampires have a go at me, and the effects of the weather changes (not to mention the house trying to flood again), it was interesting. The weather changes have an effect not only on my joints and such, but also seem to have an effect on the “scrambling” caused by the lightning hit. I’ve always used checklists, but have taken it to an even higher level of late. Of course, it also helps to remember to take the list with you when you head out… Ah well, got a fair bit done if not all. If interested in learning more about the whole hit by lightning thing, check out the posts at the fundraiser as well as a few here.

More than ever, my previous advice stands: as I noted the other day, don’t believe everything coming out from ANY source including the conspiracy people. And, I do include anything on this site or that I say should be treated that way. Take it with a bit of salt until you can research and verify. If it is from a military source on the record, take it with a grain of salt. If it’s from the media, take it with a tun of salt until it can be verified via a reliable source. As Boss said, trust; but, verify.

Also, let me stress again my belief that we do not want or need to get directly involved in the fighting. The complete and total idiots (or those simply evil enough to want a larger war for fun and profit) who keep pushing for some kind of no-fly-zone are not helping the situation at all. There’s enough chance of a wider conflict as it is, a no-fly-zone is a guaranteed open World War. Help supply the Ukraine and let them fight for their own country? Yes! Send in our troops? NO!

A fair question on my coverage: why am I not commenting on each unit/campaign/etc? First, most of my analysis is on the strategic level, trying to put the puzzles together so that a realistic picture is formed as well as providing a base for trying to figure out what Vladimir will do next. Second, it’s that whole trust and verify thing. I have a limited amount of time each day where I can productively research and write. Trying to verify all the different reports takes a LOT of time and sometimes makes life difficult in regards sources. So, I mostly stick to the strategic knowing that there are good sources/analysts out there who are covering that topic well.

Yes, those individual units/actions/etc. are pieces in the puzzle but I don’t always need what’s on or in the piece: I simply need the “shape” to know where it fits. On the pieces where I need both, I will take the time.

I am going to recommend keeping a close eye on the NATO meeting underway. There’s already been one presentation, a warning about nuclear war, that I think was unhelpful. Also, given Biden’s amazing ability to “fuck things up” per his old boss, I would not be surprised if he found a way to let his normal verbal incontinence make the situation worse. Also, if you are reading reports that Vladimir does not have a high opinion of Biden and those behind him, consider that verified. Diplomatically.

If you truly want a better understanding of who Vladimir was, what he is now, and a bit more, the wonderful Sarah Hoyt linked this morning to a story that is chock full of juicy and excellent food for thought. You really want to take the time to listen to the video interview of one of Vladimir’s former supervisors. Col. Kalugin is not your average or typical intel source. Before he had to leave Russia for his own safety, he was (and may still be) a mover and shaker as they say. Listen to it all, then listen again.

Despite tap dancing in a few spots (and he did so most excellently), he gets across a lot of information to those paying attention. As for the tap dancing, in a couple of the spots I can’t blame him and may join in. The picture he provides of Vladimir showcases how ruthless, conniving, and brutal he truly is. It also confirms some of the things I’ve been telling you. Vladimir saw the fall of the USSR as a catastrophe, though it was not for the fall of communism but rather the loss of the territories of the Russian empire. This lies at the heart of Russkiy Mir and the creation of a new Russian empire. Col. Kalugin also pointed out that the Ukraine is the mother of Russia, and Kyiv holds a special place in the hearts of Slavophiles, especially those who are behind the creation of Russkiy Mir. Hence, part of Vladimir’s obsession with Kyiv.

One thing many may miss is what Col. Kalugin is getting at in his discussion about Alexander Litvinenko and his murder in London. Allow me to tap dance just a bit, and say that there have been rumors about Vladimir for years, and especially about his sexuality. Litvinenko came out and said directly what a number of those rumors implied: that Putin is attracted to young boys. You can read some more on this here.

That he has had several rather public affairs has been speculated to be cover, to burnish his image as the strong (virile) man of myth. There are reports/rumors (take your pick) that others with direct knowledge of this have also died, almost always horribly. If you betray Vladimir (and by doing so you are a traitor to the Rodina as well), he will get you. Some of Col. Kalugin’s comments on this are a master study in understatement.

For all that Col. Kalugin tap dances, he manages to get across the idea that he suspects Vladimir will only leave office via death. Given that the intelligence and counter-intelligence assets Putin controls here in the U.S. are just as prepared to murder for him as the ones in (or sent to) London, he is wise to tap dance around the concept of removing Vladimir. Let’s face it: even if a peaceful way was offered, Vladimir would not accept it because he knows what he would do which is betray and murder.

As for the rest of that article, read it! There is a lot of information and food for thought there. If you had told me a few months ago that the Russian army would have to use not only unsecured but enemy operated communications nets, I would have laughed at you. Yes, the army is not what it used to be, but surely they remembered the lessons of the past, not to mention all the preparation and doctrine for a war with NATO. Wow.

All I’m going to say right now is that Wow, and that the situation may even be worse than is being said. I don’t want to say too much, as people running their mouths, to reporters or on social media, have sunk ships as it were. I’m also old enough to remember when that idiot peanut from Georgia told the media about our monitoring a conversation by Brezhnev with a fellow politburo member regarding the (apparently remarkable) attributes of his new mistress. Of course, this let the Soviet’s know that we had the ability to monitor the car-to-car transmissions of the politburo members. Had was indeed the operative word, pretty much within minutes. People (mostly politicians) here and especially those in the Ukraine need to shut-the-frack-up and/or quit posting.

Now, let’s look at logistics. Again, Wow. What is happening is beyond FUBAR. It has put the Russian troops on the defensive, giving the Ukrainians precious time to restock, restore, dig in, and in some cases take the offense. The other day I linked another story at Instapundit, who in turned linked to Stacy McCain and his discussion of what happened to the 331st Guards. He is careful to say that “if true” and while I echo that, there is very good reason to believe it is true. Yet again, Wow. This was truly an elite unit, and its loss is devastating on many levels. The near-term effects are staggering, and it is a loss that will not be truly made up for years given the loss of experience. That the Ukraine(!) took them out is going to ripple around the region if not the world.

Some of that is a discussion for another day. What matters today is that Stacy is right: that it was a result of the lack of supplies and replacements that doomed them. If I was in charge in the Ukraine, I would be expanding the attacks on Russian logistics. If this report is true, and they took out what I show as an LST via a short-range ballistic missile as some reports indicate, then they might just be doing so. That it also changes the tactical defense requirement for the Russians (note all reports show the other LSTs headed out) since it seems short-range ballistic missiles were not in the threat matrix. A new and novel use for them if it is true, and it once again forces the Russians on the defensive.

Which brings us back, once again, to doctrine. Via the Bongino Report, I found this interesting article. Please do go read it, as there is a huge amount of information there. While I do not yet endorse his recommendations, I also don’t disagree with them. I do think steps to deter are needed, and we are not likely to get them out of the Biden administration, and that could well prove catastrophic.

Right now, Vladimir is a desperate man motivated by personal survival; maintaining power (intertwined but separate); and, the dream of the new Russian Empire. He has and is using the “N word” a great deal, especially since Slow Joe let him know of his fear of WWIII. He’s doing it to deter us, and it’s working. That is not a good thing as once strategic response is off the table even in response to a crippling attack, it opens the door for tactical without repercussions.

I’m reminded of a line from Tom Clancy, in which two Soviet officers are talking about the use of nukes. Essentially, one makes the case that the line between tactical and strategic use only existed in the mind of idiotic academics (primarily Western). That any use would escalate and move swiftly out of control. I agree, but do not want to test that hypothesis.

While it’s out of order, one more bit of food for thought as you evaluate things. Keep in mind that a good bit of Russian history, and a large part of its internal politics, boils down to conflict between those who look to the West and Western ideals of the Enlightenment, and those who look to Slavic culture (Slavophiles). In Vladimir, you have in some ways the Slavophile’s Slavophile; and, in Russkiy Mir you have the Slavophile wet dream prepared as a plan so that wet dream can be made real.

Now, go back and re-listen to the interview with Col. Kalugin. Then think a bit.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Yesterday, I talked about that which lies behind the curtain, and today we return in part to the puzzles and pieces that are the events happening. Many things still just don’t add up; but, more things are coming into focus.

Again, as I noted the other day, don’t believe everything coming out from ANY source including the conspiracy people. And, I do include anything on this site or that I say should be treated that way. Take it with a bit of salt until you can research and verify. As Boss said, trust; but, verify.

That rule also applies to someone who has impressed me. Go read the latest from Kamil Galeev. When you get to the bottom of the story, take the time to go read the other things he’s written that you have not yet read. He has a number of good insights and thoughts. Again, read what others say and make an informed judgement.

The four LSTs that passed Japan are interesting for a number of reasons. If they are indeed headed for the fighting, it could be a long voyage. If headed to the Black Sea, will they be allowed transit of the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus? If they are not headed to the Black Sea, are they intended to head to the Baltic for land transport? Either way, it indicates that at least someone thinks this is going to go on a while. Pity I’m not seeing any submarines currently active in the Ukrainian navy, as the Russians appear to really need the equipment on those ships. Be a shame if something happened to them.

As noted before, there is a lot that doesn’t make sense with what is known. The attacks in the East and the South are not only to take a land bridge to the Crimea, but to also rob the Ukraine of its ports and most productive territory. If they lose the South and the ports, they lose the ability to conduct trade. In short, that effort is designed to force any divided Ukraine to have to join the Russian-controlled part simply to survive. Yet, the South is stalled almost as bad as the North/East attack against Kyiv though conditions are much more favorable in terms of being able to operate off-road.

Which in turn leads to logistics and training. One of the few things most sources agree on is that the logistics situation is FUBAR and getting worse. If the four LSTs are indeed aimed at getting critical logistics to the war, it is the equivalent of a Hail Mary play where someone is hoping things hold on long enough for it to arrive. Meantime, multiple sources that are not the Ukraine are reporting that food, fuel, ammunition, and more are in short supply for the Russian troops.

Troops themselves seem to be in short supply, and this article at Instapundit not only has some interesting info on sabotage of the supply lines, but an astounding admission on the true number of killed and wounded. The Kremlin has maintained that the numbers were low, ridiculously so. Yet, a pro-Kremlin outlet has released information that almost 10,000 have been killed and some 16,000 wounded. Note that they are very careful not to mention the number captured — or that have flat out defected, often with weapons systems. More on the outlet in a moment.

Now, let’s look at training. One of the reasons the U.S. military was so successful in many operations was the amount and realism of training. It allowed green units to function as if they were veteran units in the early days of Iraq. Our version of shock and awe requires not only well-trained troops, but equally well trained and practiced logistics.

There are multiple reports out that the Russian troops literally can’t operate cross country, which says a lot about land nav training. That other areas of (very) basic training are on par with the land nav. While the Russians do have a number of elite troops, keep in mind that a good bit of the forces are conscripts, who often just want to get it over with and out — and have no real motivation to train and do well. So, even if the weather (and mud) were better, they still could not make full use of their forces.

I will also join right now in agreeing with others who have pointed out that the large number of senior officer deaths reflects these issues. When your troops are not well trained, may not be fully under control, and don’t necessarily want to be there, you have to lead from the front or very damned close so as to make things happen. Which means you have a better than average chance of making a com mistake or otherwise identifying yourself and your command unit as a target. With the exception of one sniper shot, that’s what’s happened to most. That one such officer was the officer responsible for the massacre of Ukrainian troops who had been promised safe passage out of an area a few years ago is poetic justice. When Putin talks safe corridors, he’s lying and that incident is the proof of such.

Now, let’s go back to the unexpected report by Pravda. Rather, let’s look at what lies behind it. There are a number of indications that not only agencies of the government are not working well together, but that divisions within those agencies are not working well together. There is some speculation that some of this is deliberate and some is just war magnifying the normal bureaucratic incompetence. There are some very interesting rumors that a LOT of it is deliberate, as people who oppose the war are taking any chance to spike it (especially if they can’t be caught at it). Yesterday, I mentioned the demographics involved in Russkiy Mir pro and con, and I have a suspicion that some of the, er, friction between different parts of the Kremlin may mirror those demographics.

One also wonders how much any of this is being accurately reported to Vladimir. It’s pretty clear that the briefings he got before the invasion had very little connection to reality. When you are a strongman with a temper and known for arranging very nasty ends for those who displease you, you tend not to get told anything you don’t want to hear. When you do hear of people disagreeing with you, no matter how reasonable the disagreement, and your reaction is to declare them traitors to the Rodina and act upon it, it might further deplete the supply of truth reaching you. As I noted yesterday, Putin is a “true believer” in Russkiy Mir both because he believes in the end goal and he sees it as the way to secure and expand his (now extremely shakey) position. I think it has led to some serious miscalculations, and that more are to come.

At this point, however, I suspect that Vladimir realizes the damage done. It is not just economic (he cares not at all about the hardship on the average Russian citizen), but the political costs are huge. The threat of the Russian military is not completely destroyed, but has taken damage such that the areas he wants to force into Russkiy Mir are not only no longer terrified, but believe they can fight and win. Russia was always heavily dependent on imports, and that has now significantly increased and Xi is smiling the smile of a loan shark at the fact that most of that trade now has to go through him. Putin has begun turning off energy to the West, and the West is already figuring ways to do without him. Heck, Germany may even restart its nuclear power plants if rumors from Berlin are correct. I hope they are, as otherwise Germany and a good bit of Europe are fucked if they don’t, short and long term.

Vladimir’s position was shaky before this. Now, he’s a cornered rat in many respects. He can’t trust his fellow oligarchs, for all he’s neutered them as best he can. He can’t trust his military. He can’t trust even his fellow-traveling politicians as some of them already are reported to be looking to arrange soft landings elsewhere. I would not be surprised to see his already interesting security arrangements get even more interesting — one wonders if all of his in person meetings might now be done at a hundred feet… He’s also aware that the public as a whole is not to be trusted. For all that he does have a very loyal base, it is not a majority (or even close). He has no “out” within Russia for all practical purposes; and, he will not consider any out that would place him outside of Russia. Never mind the fact that he’s been declared a war criminal and that leaders of other governments have called for him to be deposed and/or killed. No, more than ever I think he will double down and hope that doing so will let him accomplish enough of Russkiy Mir to not just hang on, but to gain power.

Again, this does not make me optimistic about reasonable decisions, much less any that fall within definition of good choices. On the military front, doctrine calls for the use of nukes in situation like this. There may be an option for Russia to use its chemical or biological weapons in place of nukes in terms of doctrine, in the belief that the U.S. would not respond to their use the same as the use of nukes. Then again, doctrine (and thought within those red walls) believe that Western leadership, particularly the U.S., will not do so anyway.

All we can do at this point is hang on and hope for the best. As I said before, we may be about to witness what happens when it’s not one world leader who’s insecure in MAD terms, rather what happens when no major world leader is secure. Won’t that be fun!

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine