Nuclear 101: Weapons

UPDATED to correct typo, sure there’s at least one more in there…

While the primary focus is on nuclear weapons and war, I’m going to talk a bit about other types of special weapons as they can and do play a role in a nuclear war and nuclear strategy. So, let’s start by taking a look at the basic weapons.

First up, the original weapon that opened the nuclear age. Fission weapons derive their energy from breaking apart the atom. To be a bit more precise, a neutron is used to break apart a single atom into two smaller atoms which releases energy and more neutrons which then break apart yet more atoms in a sustained chain reaction. This releases a large amount of energy, which is then measured in kilotons (1 kiloton = 1,000 tons of TNT [note: typo corrected! Thanks for pointing it out]) or megatons (1 megaton = 1,000,000 tons of TNT). Note that pretty much all fission weapons stay in the kiloton range.

In terms of operating systems, there are two types of fission weapons: gun-type and implosion. In a gun-type fission weapon, conventional explosives drive two masses of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) into each other to produce what is called a criticality: the chain reaction necessary for the bomb to function. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was a gun-type device.

The implosion device uses a core, or pit, of plutonium surrounded by conventional explosives. The sophisticated explosives create a uniform compression of the plutonium which creates the criticality which then ensures the chain reaction with some form of neutron initiator. If you want more details, you will need to look it up yourself and I note that there is a lot of information out there, a good bit of which is accurate. I will note that you can use HEU as the pit instead of plutonium. In fact, the UN reports that Iraq was doing just that back in the bad old days. It should also be noted that the world’s first nuclear explosion at Alamagordo and the Nagasaki bomb were both implosion devices.

Brief aside, gun devices are easier to build from a technological standpoint but tend to be rather large. Implosion devices are much more technologically challenging on almost every level, but allow a great deal of power in a smaller device.

The next level of weapons are fusion devices. Whereas fission splits, fusion brings deuterium and tritium together to form helium and a whole bunch of energy. Hence the name, hydrogen bomb as deuterium and tritium are isotopes of hydrogen. Edited for clarity and to fix a typo. The energy output of a fusion weapon is much (much much even) higher than a fission weapon.

In discussion on nuclear war, you are going to hear the term “thermonuclear weapons” used. What are they? Simply put, they are a combination of fission and fusion weapon. In grossly over simplistic terms, the fission weapons can be “boosted” by adding in a fusion component. The majority of nuclear weapons in use by major powers today are in fact thermonuclear devices.

Regardless of type, conventional warheads tend to be divided into two areas: Strategic and Tactical. Strategic are mated to longer-ranged delivery systems and are of larger yield. Tactical are intended for use with short-ranged systems and have a much smaller yield. Strategic are intended to take out large areas/targets and tactical are designed to take out a small/limited target and minimize damage outside a limited area. Cough, cough.

There are some specialized types of nuclear weapons. One that hit the news a few decades back was the so-called neutron bomb. This was a device designed to do minimum damage to an area (though it could be argued that it was intended to focus damage to a specific area/target) and neutralize the surrounding area via a massive dose of neutron radiation. That burst of radiation would result in the death of humans (and other animals) hit by it, but leave the infrastructure intact and non-radioactive.

Are there other types of specialized warhead? RUMINT, of course, says yes. Everything from enhanced/tuned EMP to signals to the aliens waiting just outside the solar system. May have to pull some of them into some fiction I need to write, but for purposes of our current discussion the only ones that, if they exist, would have any impact would be enhanced EMP.

No discussion of nuclear weapons would be complete without discussion of issues of criticality and fizzles. Criticality is essential to enabling the chain reaction that is a nuclear explosion. It’s when you get it without wanting to set of such a chain reaction that it becomes a not-so-minor issue.

One way to get an accidental criticality is to bring two masses of material, be it HEU or plutonium, close enough together that a reaction starts. This has happened, in more than one country, when people handling such materials either brought them too close together as part of an experiment (or manufacturing process) and got a flash criticality. This was a short-term event because the materials were immediately separated, though the flash was most often a terminal event for those present.

The other way it can happen is if a fire or other catastrophe some or all of the conventional explosives in a nuclear device. I will simply note that modern weapons make use of specialized explosives and explosives design/layout to minimize the risk of such.

Then there are fizzles. While most of the discussions of learned types focus on boosted weapons, they technically can happen to any type of nuclear explosive. In short, a fizzle is simply an incomplete reaction. In a boosted weapon, the boost doesn’t happen. In a single-type weapon, the chain reaction is not sustained to the planned extent. At worst/best (worse from the user standpoint, best case from the view of the target), the explosion is not as large as planned. RUMINT suggests that there can be odd effects from a fizzle, including some potentially nasty material for clean-up.

You can also have duds. For whatever reason, the bomb does not go off. The conventional explosives may or may not go off, but the core of the bomb does not even reach fizzle status. If nothing goes off, it does make clean-up and containment easier. If the conventional explosives do go off, it can spread radioactive materials around.

Which gives a nice segue into other types of special weapons. In the parlance in which I grew up, CBN for Chemical, Biological, Nuclear.

Chemical covers a range of nastiness from nerve agents to simple caustic compounds. They are intended to incapacitate or otherwise neutralize large groups of ground forces. For those who have not served, having to operate in MOPP gear is hot, nasty, and cumbersome to be polite I am told. I include it here because one of the best ways to deny an enemy use of nuclear weapons is to hit the appropriate storage depots with chemical (or biological) weapons. This prevents ready use and preserves them in case you want to secure them or use them for your own purposes (don’t judge). By the time someone can secure, decontaminate, verify, and then deploy — well, it’s most likely things are already over for the time being.

Biological weapons also cover a range of options. Most people think of killer plagues, and yes there has been research into such (and some countries continue on that to this day). It also includes other vectors designed to incapacitate enemy leadership. Again, there’s a range and if you are really interested, dive in and explore. I include it here primarily because it is a factor that needs to be mentioned, though one scenario may come up in later discussions.

Non-explosive nuclear are best represented by dirty bombs. That is, using conventional explosives to contaminate as large an area as possible by spreading some form of nuclear material including nuclear waste. If, like me, you’ve had the joy of going through the FEMA Weapons of Mass Destruction Course, even a very large and effective dirty bomb is only going to cover a limited area. Pick the right area though, and… While not necessarily practical, you could potentially use a non-explosive criticality to take out key enemy leadership with the right assets. This may or may not get discussed later.

Now, to the topic that generates large amounts of wailing and gnashing of teeth: testing. Yes, testing is needed.

Before computer modeling and simulations because practical, most nuclear weapons design was based on mathematical probabilities and a certain degree of trial and error. Want to know if a new design worked, and worked as planned? Build it and try it.

With the advent of truly advanced computer design and simulations, there came a group who said we no longer needed to do testing of any sort, above ground, underground, or even deep space. There’s just one problem that the smug SOBs who say that computer simulations are all we need don’t get: GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Simulations, while often quite good, are no replacement for reality. They can limit the amount of real-world testing required, but they can’t replace it any more than they can replace the need for manual checks of the weapons to detect corrosion in the pits or elsewhere, damage to components from radiation, or any of the other things that need to be checked. They can suggest a schedule of such checks, and maybe even where to spend extra time checking, but they can’t replace the checks, or the tests.

Question for the class: when was the last time we tested either a new or existing design to be sure they either worked as planned or still worked as designed and tested?

Given how much of our nuclear forces are still using designs and components from the mid-1960’s, it’s kind of an important question. Especially since we are at a point where we not only need to modernize our weapons and forces, we need to look at a variety of new warhead and delivery vehicle options to meet new and different threats.

On that note, I think I will stop for the day and on Monday pick up with delivery vehicles and systems. Today is a very quick and broad overview of the weapons, now it’s time to look at how they get from point A to point B.

Yes, I’ve very deliberately not gone into detail on any number of areas and issues. You can write massive tomes and dissertations on any facet of everything brought up today. It suffices to get get some basic information out and avoids becoming a primer if you will.

There are plenty of such out there, and some are fascinating reading. For the purposes of this series of posts, however, the high view should be sufficient.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Nuclear What?

*****

Nuclear War Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear What?

Yesterday, I read an interesting article on a recent conference on nuclear deterrence (and more) held in Omaha. This is an annual conference held under the aegis of the U.S. Strategic Command, formerly known as SAC before it was abolished in a fit of premature celebration years ago.

While it’s been going, mostly, since 2009, it seems this year the shit finally got real for some people as they realized what others have been saying for years: Russia is a realistic threat who is modernizing as rapidly as possible; the Chinese are still a few years away but working hard to bypass parity with the U.S. as soon as possible; Iran is a realistic threat on it’s own, much less as a catspaw for others; and, even North Korea needs to be taken seriously.

Consider the fact that at least the backbone of our nuclear capability is based on mid-1960’s technology. The Minuteman system is indeed just that, and you might want to take a look at the BUFF and how some of it’s crews include three generations of military family serving in the same plane over the years. Let’s not get into our command and control system and the reported use of floppy discs and other delights. Let’s not get into the age and design of our warheads, or that we need a better range of warhead options for scenarios that might have changed just a bit since 1965. Nor the fact that we have not taken full advantage of our technology and what is allowed under treaties to engage in the type of anti-ballistic missile (heck, anti-missile period) defense that would protect us from not just ballistic threats, including depressed trajectory shots from sub-launched missiles, but also from cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery vehicles, specialized delivery vehicles (deep penetrators, etc.), and, well, you get the picture. A lot has changed since 1965. Sadly, it isn’t our nuclear presence or posture.

Meantime, Russia has the SATAN-1 deployed and is working on the SATAN-2. I’m taking some of the things with the SATAN-2 with a grain of salt right now, as it was supposed to be fully deployed (and replacing the SATAN-1) about two years ago. They have continued warhead development, a variety of delivery vehicles, nuclear-capable bombers, and everything needed to have a reasonable assurance of a reliable and robust system. Or, at least the appearance of one. Again, there appear to be some glitches in the system, and I do take the Russian/Soviet tendency to develop what I call “Ronco Systems” as a result of an occasionally massive inferiority complex. That is, systems that are larger, better, faster, etc. than corresponding American systems and they also do other things/provide more options in the process. Problem is, the more bells and whistles, the more often there are performance issues.

China, well, what I will say right now is that they are working hard (and stealing tech/designs) not only for nuclear weapons, but the systems to accurately deliver them under a variety of circumstances. They appear to be looking for a robust, diverse, and effective system. Yes, they do worry me. They should worry anyone with a brain.

Iran, despite the implication in the linked article, was pursing and has never stopped pursuing development of nuclear weapons. They appear to have gotten a good bit of help from the Chinese both on weapons and on rocket technology. I find it amusing that when COVID hit them, it may have come in on some of the clandestine flights between Iran and China related to this project. While I don’t see them yet as a near-term peer, as I have written before, I can see them using their new satellite launch capability to initiate a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) attack on the U.S. as a lead in for another power to take advantage of. Given the current sorry state of our power grid, and that pretty much all efforts at hardening it and the electronic systems we depend on from just such an attack, just one burst of EMP could eliminate the U.S. as a modern society for some time to come.

North Korea is proof that the idea of the fate of the world resting on the least stable world leader wasn’t scary enough. For all that I think there is at least some method to the madness, I still see the madness as not being a happy-making thing.

I think that getting into all that is involved may end up taking several posts. For the public to understand not only what is going on, but how we got here and the options available to us, is complex and may take some time. For example, we need to look at basics of nuclear war, from theoretical limited use to a full exchange. We need to look at what is required to have a reliable and robust system and ensure it works when needed. This is especially important given that according to some sources, we’ve gone from an 80 percent success rate to a 20 percent success rate for launch. We need to look at what is required training for our political and other leadership so that they respond as well as possible to threats or attacks. The war games described by Tom Clancy and Larry Bond in their works were real, but can anyone tell me the last time a POTUS or other senior political leader took part in such? And, there are a few other topics that may need to be discussed in this context.

My goal is over the coming weeks is to explore these topics and to take such explorations where they, and possibly even the comments, lead to the extent that I can legally and morally do so. Meantime, I’m going to go ahead and invite some people I know to join in and shoot holes in what I put up. Who knows, maybe we will get a good guest post or two out of it.

I’m going to include this in my Russia/Ukraine coverage as it is there that I see the largest chance for people on all sides to fuck up by the numbers. Right now, I think we haven’t seen the worst simply because of legalisms, but that is both a past discussion and perhaps one for the future. Meantime, have a good weekend!

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Fundraiser Update

Yesterday, I posted an update at GiveSendGo noting that it is the end of the month and I can use some help. I also noted that I need to buy some new supplements, ones that bloodwork show as helping, and that some of those are a touch expensive. My insurance covers big pharma products, but not compounded or supplements.

I’m also having to look at raising the amount being sought. While GiveSendGo does not charge anything, their payment processor does. In many respects, I’m in the same boat as Protein Wisdom just found himself in with his fundraiser: he had to raise the amount sought to account for the payment processor’s rapacious appetites. I’m not happy with them for several reasons, and will note that if you use the tip jar/PayPal link in the upper right above I do get more if not all the funds.

Working to come up with the necessary lump sums to get out of here. Also looking at alternate methods of moving. While I can’t do a lot of lifting and hauling, there may be some options where if I can get help/hire help, I can do it for less than the moving companies would charge. I can plan, push, and pray.

Thank you to everyone who has donated, sent prayers, or good thoughts. Know that all are appreciated, and the prayers have helped.

If You Think

That the Russians ever quit trying to penetrate the United States at multiple levels and locations, think again. This is a great example of classic tradecraft, though it is harder to pull off today than it used to be. There’s a reason that overseas birth certificates are used far more than they used to be.

And so many think The Americans was just fiction. The number of sleepers, much less operatives and agents, in the US would stagger most of the public. If you think there aren’t more scattered around the U.S., quite likely even here in Indiana, I have a bridge for sale at a bargain price. Sleepers, agents, and operatives: been done for decades and not all as obvious as Chapman, etc. They never stopped.

As a quick aside, if you ever wondered about capital punishment in the Soviet Union, check out the scene of Nina’s death in The Americans. Very accurate. You might also want to check out the story of Agent Farewell as I’ve recommended before.

Obligatory for the record: I do NOT have info on Hilary. Despite being hit by lightning, my health is doing pretty good. My outlook is positive. Time to bring up my joke poll from a few months ago: Given that I’ve managed to annoy at least three different governments, will they find classified info, child porn, or both on my computer? I’m going with both. Which government: U.S., China, Russia, or other will be behind it? 🙂

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

I’m not going to do a full update, but two things came out of the OSINT community today that caught my eye. One is a reminder of how fast things can get out of control. The second is a pipe dream that deserves to have a flamenco done on it in hobnail combat boots.

H. I. Sutton this morning shared the NavalNews story that the Knyaz Vladimir, a Bulava-class boomer, has had the “Z” invasion marking painted on it. While the marking has been going on a LOT of equipment that is in no danger of being sent to/used in or on the Ukraine, this is a very clear message that is well in keeping with some of the official comments and unofficial RUMINT coming out of Moscow.

For those just joining in, the Russians have been threatening the use of nuclear weapons, including full-scale global nuclear war, pretty much from the start. If this were a formally declared war, instead of a special military action, doctrine would have seen the use of special weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological) long ago. Given that Vladimir is a cheerleader for “escalate to de-escalate” philosophy, this is not a happy making thought for many of us. “This business will get out of control” is valid, and how easily and how fast it can do so is keeping a lot of good people up at night.

Also, DefMon asked a question yesterday that I saw this morning. It very simply was if Vladimir was a valid military target. Short answer: Yes, just as Zelenskyy was and is.

The longer answer is that any action by the Ukraine against Vladimir will rapidly escalate the situation and the scope of the war. An attempt to kill or kidnap him via military action, similar to what the Russian’s attempted with Zelenskyy in the early days, simply aren’t practical. Using other weapons simply to try to kill him are both unlikely, given the lack of long-range weapons or covert deep-strike capabilities. Finding a way to do it, however, is guaranteed to move things from special action to full war.

As Evergreen Intel dryly noted, a palace coup is not likely to work out as many would like to fondly imagine. Any internal coup is likely to pit various units/ministries against each other in literal, not figurative, battle. While things are not quite like they were when Tom Clancy and Larry Bond wrote Red Storm Rising, you are going to be talking troops, militias, and “security” troops that are former military turned mercenary involved in protecting Oligarchia and others. Would I be surprised at full-scale/small unit combat between groups? No. Would I be surprised at some form of maskirova with small special weapons? Honestly, sadly, no. Once the dust settles, things could get very interesting very fast depending on who won, as Vladimir is far from the most militant person involved, as there are others who make him look like the voice of reason and restraint.

As I noted on Twitter, “If Vladimir keels over dead for some reason, the claim he was assassinated will be used by those shooting for the top (all puns intended) to further their goals. Even if he knows it’s coming and tries for orderly succession, odds of pulling it off long-term about zero.” Even in the short term, I’m not sure Vladimir could pull it off. Given the prize, expect to see those looking to be come the new Czar go all in to the point that we will indeed see it get out of control to the point we will be lucky to live through it to modify the quote.

If some power outside of Russia and/or the Ukraine were foolish enough to try to assassinate Vladimir, much less succeed, things will get out of control pretty much immediately, with the unthinkable becoming the thinkable and implemented very, very rapidly. Especially as that is one of the automatic scenarios for which Dead Hand is supposed to monitor.

So, just a couple of tidbits of food for thought. As always, if you can shoot holes in the analysis using real citations, logic, etc., go for it. But, show your homework and no magical handwavium allowed.

Oh, has anyone else noticed that a portion of the Kremlin seems to have gone radio silent? As in almost no RUMINT, comments, or general chatter? Not a huge block, but interesting.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Apologies

Today’s schedule included doing due diligence on a company a friend is recommending I look into getting involved with, and two posts here. One was on the shooting here at the Greenwood Park Mall, and the other was going to be a fundraising update for here at GiveSendGo.

However, a housemate got in from overseas about 0030 hrs, spent next three hours stomping, running, and bouncing around like a demented 500 lb gerbil, knowing I was directly below him trying to sleep. I depend on routine and sufficient sleep to stay on the coping mechanisms/plans that let me function despite the fun joys of the lightning strike messing with my brain. So far off that today it’s not funny.

Yes, I did say something. Still means I’ve been up since 0030 hrs, gave up and started cooking breakfast about 0330, and am trying to get back on track but it’s not easy. If weirder than normal on social media, or just off, please forgive and be patient. If I can get back on track, I will. Odds are not good, but will try though my prime goal is to give you the best I can on each post. Quality comes first.

Meantime, please, please, please hit the flipping tip jar in the upper right, or the GiveSendGo campaign, so I can get moved out of here and out West ASAP. I get more when you donate here. While GiveSendGo does not take anything, the payment processor they use takes everything it possibly can. PayPal takes a lot less. If you have a suggestion for any other app/payment option, let me know so I can check it out. Thanks for all you have done, and thanks for your patience.

Food crisis: Big statements in small articles

Italy is losing about 1/3 of its rice and corn crops to the heat.

We planted corn late, and now this heat wave, with high nighttime temperatures, is hitting the Western Corn Belt very hard at an inopportune time. AccuWeather is predicting a greater weather hit to corn than the USDA is.

Dryland corn in my area is just about toast. Irrigated doesn’t look good, pivots can’t keep up and flood won’t go through. Next 10 days of 100° plus and no rain. Worst year I’ve ever seen for moisture and heat. Started feeding my cattle this week, never done that in July before.

David, commenter on AgWeb’s AccuWeather article

If this is true about Germany harvesting corn for silage (i.e., not for corn), that’s a problem.

This 7:08 video might give a sense of how normal economic processes aren’t quite making sense. I think that’s because of the conflict between fundamentals and technical trading. For instance, it’s strange to see such high prices for farming inputs without seeing an equivalent increase in prices for outputs. The long-term implications here are uncertain, but they might include an increase in farm bankruptcies or people getting out of the field: If you can’t sell your goods at a profit, you won’t stay in business long.

We kinda needed a good harvest. It looks like we’re not getting a good harvest.

My usual caveat applies: There’s a lot I don’t know. If you think I’m missing mitigating factors, please talk about it in the comments.

An additional caveat: Note that a lot of the most doom-and-gloom articles at AgWeb are written by Tyne Morgan. That could mean he’s the one paying attention, or it could mean that he’s a clickbait artist. I lean toward the former, because there’s verifiable data in his articles. Other articles are less doom-and-gloom, like this one — but even that one embeds a video that backs up everything Morgan says. Having said that, I notice that his articles sometimes repeat predictions from weeks before without saying whether or not those predictions came true. Caveat lector, and don’t trust anyone, even me.

Into The Light: Eric Flint

I’m sorry to report that Eric Flint passed away this weekend. The man was unique, with a background that gave him a profound appreciation for and understanding of the American worker. More than that, his background shaped him into not just an author — he was 50 I believe when he began to conquer that field — but someone who advanced the field by bringing in and up so many other writers.

Most will know him from his 1632 series, and it is a good way to share how unique he was with the world. How many authors do you know who would invent an entire new universe and then open it up to not just published authors, but unpublished or fan-authors around the world? Who would see someone with a good idea or take, and encourage them to write a good story and sell it?

Eric was also the person who got the Baen free library going, as I understand it talking the late (and much missed) Jim Baen into offering that first hit for free. Into including CDs with a mix of free stories into new hardcovers, betting that readers would find one or more other stories/series to go buy and read. Sheer marketing genius.

I did not know him personally, and that is my loss. Those who did shared with me a man who, though in a number of ways my political/philosophical opposite, was great to talk to and even fun to talk to. A man who had a knack of getting people to look at things from a different perspective, and was willing to do the same. He also had a wicked sense of humor.

I have to admit I enjoyed his works with other authors, particularly David Weber, as such collaborations seemed to work well and take some rough edges off both. To me, they were a bit richer than his single-author works, though that is a highly personal thing.

He was talented, generous to a fault (particularly with new writers), and a cheerful curmudgeon who enjoyed that status. We are the richer for his life and talent, and while his loss leaves a void in the field he did his best to fill that void and leave the field richer than before. That’s a hell of a legacy. Salute.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Food crisis update

I’ve been saying that the US won’t see starvation, but we’d see prices even higher than we’ve currently got. I continue to think that’s true.

The futures markets for grain and other commodities are taking a beating because of inflationary news, which means companies are betting that the price of grain will go down in the future. But I think they’re basing their belief about decreasing grain prices on things like the recession, inflationary fears, and so on, rather than on what’s really going on in the grain fields. The fundamentals in agriculture continue to be pretty bad, by which I mean that (I believe) that the causes of high prices are still in place, and there’s nothing about the crops themselves that should lead anyone to believe that the prices will go down significantly.

Not all the news is bad, mind you — some signs show that corn and soybeans are going to be better than they could be, and I haven’t heard as much about poultry loss from avian flu recently — but we continue to have serious long-term issues because of drought.

There’s a massive cattle sell-off in Texas right now because of drought, which has caused a shortage of hay and water. 4x the normal number of cattle are currently being sold. Maybe that’ll mean there’s beef at better prices for a little while, maybe not, but it sure means that there will be higher prices in the future. Buy beef and freeze it.

https://61a6a0fd9b4012f13ba5706c.bcvp0rtal.com/detail/videos/agday-minute/video/6309493888112/agday-minute-071322

The US drought’s already bad and is getting worse. See this video:

…and the first chunk of this video:

This coincides with this discussion from last week.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/half-us-corn-crop-was-planted-two-weeks-now-10-day-forecast-shows-signs

Now skip to ~5:40 in that second video to hear about Ukrainian farmers having to sell their grain below cost, with government officials saying, “Without opening the Black Sea ports, I don’t see any solution for Ukrainian farmers to survive. And if they don’t survive, we won’t be able to feed African countries.” There was some possible movement on that yesterday, but none of it involves Russia, which is kind of a big deal. Look for more information on that next week.

Back to the US: Feed shortages are already a concern, and a rail strike may make it worse.

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/could-rail-workers-now-strike-starting-monday-concerns-feed-shortage-continue

With massive inflation and looming food shortages, I still recommend buying and storing pasta, and now I’ll add that you might want to buy and freeze meat. Meat was always going to go up higher because the cost of grain will reduce meat production overall: It would be good to get more on hand before prices go up, especially if there’s a little dip before that rise starts.

When The Story Begs Serious Questions

Recently, the story of a 10-year-old rape victim having to travel to Indiana to get an abortion because of Ohio law swept unquestioningly across the media landscape, and into the mouths of politicians like the demented meat puppet at 1600 Penn. The problem with that was, there were and are a lot of holes in that story. Massive holes that beg both ethical and legal questions.

The first reporter to raise questions was Megan Fox at PJ Media. Her first column on the story raised a number of important red flags, and a host of questions which have yet to be answered by the Indianapolis Star, the doctor quoted in their story, or a number of other people and/or organizations.

Sadly, far from being a hoax, an illegal alien has been arrested and charged with the rape of the girl. I really do wish it had been a hoax, rather than being true and a child having their childhood destroyed. I pray for her and I hope that she gets some great counseling so as to avoid the many problems that come from childhood rape.

Yet, those troublesome questions remain unanswered. Indeed, they stand in sharper focus as we start to learn more. Let’s run down a few of them.

First, why did a report filed on 22 June with child services not make it to the police, and an arrest made, until 12 or 13 JULY? Why did the attorney general of Ohio and his office not know about it until then? Why did the Columbus police deny any investigation until yesterday?

Second, why was no apparent effort made to obtain an abortion in Ohio? Per the attorney general, the girl qualified if for no other reason than a 10-year-old’s body is not yet ready to give birth even if she had entered puberty. As with the question on why the report was not shared in a timely manner, what efforts if any were made to obtain medical care for the rape victim in Ohio? If they were denied, who denied them and when? Were any reports required of mandatory reporters filed at all by anyone? Who was the alleged “child abuse doctor” and did they file the mandatory paperwork? More importantly, did they make any effort to obtain care in Ohio and if not, why did they instead enlist the aid of a noted abortion activist physician here in Indiana?

Third, given that the procedure was done here in Indiana by the abortion activist doctor, did she at any point file the required reports? Did she have permission to discuss the case with the media or did she violate HIPPA and risk additional trauma to a young rape victim simply for political points? Did she discuss the story or her part in it with her employer or anyone else before going public with the patient’s information? At least, according to the court testimony yesterday, she did keep tissue from the abortion for DNA and/or other analysis.

Fourth, there are a series of questions for the IndyStar. First, in a story relying on a single source, how did they vet what they were being told? What steps, if any, did they take to verify the material, and to verify that the legal rights of the minor rape victim were being protected? Did they at any time seek a legal opinion on the article, and if not, why not? On a story like this, it’s not unusual to seek such an opinion given that it can open the newspaper up to lawsuits and/or prosecution. Was anyone at the IndyStar aware that the source was violating HIPPA and other regulations? Did anyone at the IndyStar question why the rape victim was not treated in Ohio and question the so-called “child abuse doctor” about that? Did anyone on staff do any due diligence to ensure that they, and the child victim, were not being used to further a particular pro-abortion political position?

The latter truly is crucial. If this entire chain of events happened, across state lines, to create and/or push a political outcome, that moves into the realm of criminal activity. It would mean the first “doctor” who remains unknown to the public conspired with the doctor here to use the victim for their own political purposes. It is not only unethical, but would also appear to be in violation of a variety of federal and state laws, not to mention simply being utterly and completely despicable.

If the IndyStar had any idea that it was being used as part of such an effort, and failed to perform due diligence and/or willingly participated, there is no First Amendment shield. It’s been a while since my last media law class, but the courts have held that journalistic operations have some “slack” in terms of violating laws in pursuit of the common good. This mostly applies to classified information and attempts by governments at various levels to prevent damaging information from being reported. Where news organizations have violated laws for gain or to push particular agendas, the courts have not been kind. They will have little to no shield from civil or criminal complaints.

For now, all we have are questions and a situation that stinks to high heaven. Until the IndyStar answers questions about basic journalistic fundamentals, much less the more serious questions, it remains highly suspect in the public eye. They need to come clean and operate transparently if they are to maintain any good public perception.

At best, it would appear that the privacy and other rights of a minor rape victim were knowingly and willfully violated by a number of people and/or institutions. At worst, there was a deliberate effort to use and abuse that victim to create a false political narrative for gain. If the latter is true, then all involved should face the maximum legal and social repercussions. If the former, those involved deserve the same. There is no excuse to violate a child like this for personal or political gain, and it is my opinion that is exactly what has happened. Meantime, I can only hope that she is finally getting real care and treatment and that real, honest investigations are made into everyone involved in this story.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.