Month: November 2022

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Today, we need to consider a different lesson. Invasion and/or occupation are a de facto declaration of war no matter the words used in excuse. Each war has it’s own lessons to learn, and history suggests that the truism about preparing to fight the last war is sadly true. For just two examples, think of WWI and the machine gun versus formation fighting. In WWII, we saw the battleship replaced by the aircraft carrier.

Sadly, I fear we are well on our way to learning a wrong lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war. For far too many, the focus is on drones, loitering munitions, and advanced artillery. The first two in particular have grabbed popular fascination, and what is being done with them is indeed amazing, successful, and more. There are already concepts for the next drone du jour, and a lot of armchair talk about how drones and other unmanned systems are the future.

To my mind, there are two big problems for anyone facing or under occupation in regards this. First, drones are the technology of today. Second, the enthusiasts miss the key point that makes drones possible: data.

As for the first point, drones have already been changing the face of warfare for a few years now. What has changed is that troops regular, irregular, and partisan are making full use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology. At least in some quarters, the creative use of COTS has been discussed for some time, especially as a variety of systems have matured. Video cameras and displays, drones, model rockets, advanced phone and radio devices, and more all have a place.

Drones will be a part of warfare in any form from now on. The real question is what will be the technology of the next war? Again, as we’ve discussed before, what matters most in the struggle against any invader or occupier is flexible minds. In this war, it is that flexibility that saw drones modified for recon, for pinpoint bombing (micro bombing), and even delivery of small (or even medium) items to troops cut off or otherwise needing resupply. It was that mental flexibility that saw someone use a 3-D printer to design and print a tail fin for various grenades (mostly 40s) so that they fell straight and true onto target.

Which brings us to data. Knowing where to start looking for targets takes data. Controlling drones at remote ranges takes data. Sharing your wild hair for modifying a drone to hit enemy targets takes data. Sharing the 3-D printer file for grenade tail fins (and other delights) takes data. Assessing strike and other action results takes data. Data, and the ability to share/communicate it, are essential to fighting any invasion or occupation.

In this case, quite a bit of that rests on the use of the Starlink satellite internet system. The enemy can jam many things, it’s hard to jam an entire satellite constellation. Add in the ability of cell phones to communicate directly with satellites, and you have something any general throughout history would have killed to have for their campaigns.

The modern smartphone is, at its core, a computer. If you can hook that computer directly to a satellite independent of cellular service, you have the ability to pull in data from satellites, web sites, and more. You also have the ability to control systems from a distance. Make it a discrete hot spot, and you can hook in drone or other controls to it. You can hook a laptop into it, and then brother do your abilities go up.

Now, if you can figure out how to make your uplink signal shielded or a tight-beam to help escape detection (for the enemy will be looking for you), all the better. Even better is to hide the abilities of the phone to a cursory search. The Russians have primarily been checking cell phones for obvious signs of resistance such as text messages, e-mail, photos, and such. They may get smart, and if not, others are surely learning lessons as well.

If you even begin to think you might be invaded or occupied, now is the time to start setting up the necessary communications/data systems. You need multiple access points to the internet, cellular, and satellite systems. You need to make those as secure as possible. Set up as many systems as you can for redundancy as well as security. It would also be wise to set up some maskirova of your own, both in terms of hiding things and putting up some things for the enemy to find and/or destroy so they think they have hurt you.

Also, start buying terminals and services now, and set-up funds out-of-country to pay for those services after you are occupied. Buy new cell phones with the satellite technology, and get what computer equipment you can as well. Despite Elon’s generosity to the Ukraine, the level of service needed costs. Plan for it. And look at ways to get creative and use the enemy’s systems (and funding sources) against them. Again, flexible minds.

What will be the next drone? Good question, and there are some options already out there. Without data and the ability to communicate it, none of it will be effective.

For the grins of it, some thoughts in fiction form.

Korolev stood in the control tower and watched the massive cargo plane maneuver to the end of the runway, as always fascinated with the beauty of the movement as well as wishing it could hurry up. Right now, the jamming systems around the base were down, as were the automatic defense systems against drones since it would not go well with higher if said systems took out your own plane.

The one thing up and working, however, was radar. Ground clutter meant that it could only scan from about fifty feet up, but everyone knew that drones came in and dropped things, and to do so meant usually they flew a hundred feet or higher.

Cursing as the plane stopped at it’s hold point, Korolev lit a cigarette and muttered a few words about being a nervous old woman. He would be glad when the plane was gone and the defenses could come back up. Besides, the plane not only had a few prisoners, but a lot more medical evacuations as well as items liberated locally to be sent back home. The evacuations were needed, not only for the wounded, but that accidental electrical short in the barracks shower had overwhelmed the cardiac capabilities of the medical staff. The hospital of the occupied air base was not designed for the number of casualties coming in to it.

Finally, the giant plane began its roll down the runway. About a third of the way down, it began to rotate, and finally the wheels left the ground. Even as they did so, however, disaster struck.

The drones were small and had come in on the deck, only lifting up briefly to clear the fence. No one saw them until it was too late. As the transport lifted, all of them homed in on the engines on the right wing, the wing on the same side as all the hangars, storage, and other necessities of a modern airbase.

Most were simply small drones, while a few may have had some bit of explosive or incendiary munitions on board. It almost didn’t matter as they hit each engine like a massive bird strike. Even as Korolev’s mouth began to open and his cigarette to fall unnoticed, those engines came apart.

For something moving so slow, the pinwheel to the right happened in the blink of an eye. Still in ground effect, the giant transport didn’t have a chance. It crashed into the flight line and hangars on the right side of the runway. Fully fueled, it exploded into a mushroom cloud that swelled up hundreds of feet even as thousands of liters of burning jet fuel rushed out over the ground to engulf nearby hangars and planes.

Away from the crash, crews raced into the hangars and revetments where the fighter jets waited.

“Good!” thought Korolev. “Get them out and away before they go up too.”

As flames began to engulf the hangars, explosions began, spreading the destruction even further. It was then that Korolev noted that the ends had popped off a crate in the pile of liberated items to be sent back home on the next flight. It was from the local school robotics collective and contained all the robots they had. As he watched, fifteen to twenty robots suddenly raced out of the crate, and headed towards the hangars and revetments for the fighters.

The wheeled robots were fast, agile, and had closed the distance before anyone could react. They reached their targets and exploded under the fighters near the left main landing gear in a rippling wave. Those going for the hangars targeted the lead fighter, trapping the rest inside. The planes that didn’t go up immediately from the effects of the directional mines in each robot collapsed as the landing gear gave way. Many of them caught fire as they did so.

With almost everyone looking at the twin disasters, no one saw the third wave coming in. These were planes, the current iteration of the old radio controlled planes and some of them were quite large. Like the original attack, they came in low, popped over the fence, and went straight for the base tank farm.

The largest fired what appeared to be modified model rockets at the big tanks. They weren’t trying to make them explode, just leak. Though if they had exploded no one in the resistance was going to mind. Some of the mid-size and smaller planes did modified bombing runs, lobbing 40mm grenades with tail fins at the sides of the tanks. The last few planes across dropped incendiary grenades as they raced off and dropped back down to the deck outside the fence.

The build seemed slow to those used to the movies, but within a few minutes, the tank farm was ablaze, with only the deep revetments around the tanks holding in the burning fuel. Horrified, Korolev stared at one of the emergency pipes that penetrated the berm so that spilled gas could be pumped into trucks and taken away at need. Was it his imagination, or was that remotely controlled valve starting to cycle?

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Asymmetrical Musings 3

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Welcome to another meeting of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. In this post and this post, we’ve begun touching on some of the lessons learned about asymmetrical and irregular warfare coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. Today, I want to take a look at the somewhat touchy area of sabotage and/or small unit operations.

I say somewhat touchy because when it comes to sabotage, neither side particularly wants to say too much. For the occupier/oppressor, claiming or admitting sabotage has some very serious downsides. For one thing, it lets everyone know the area is not under control, and that those opposing the invasion/occupation are effectively fighting against such. For the invaded/occupied, you run the risk of giving away techniques, people, and more if you admit to it, worse yet if you brag about it. Which is why you see a lot of implication that something was sabotage (or a small unit strike) by one side and the other side saying yep sure was something with the implication they may (or may not) have been behind it.

Look at Vladimir’s bridge for an example. Sabotage? Small unit attack? About everything has been hinted at in terms of how it was done, with the Russians torn between claiming sabotage (truck full of explosives that they missed on inspection) or small unit attack (water-based drone or guided munition from nearby small unit). The Ukrainians are being very cagey about it, pretty much saying we did it even while neither confirming or denying they did it. It’s a dance of psy-ops and politics for the leadership on each side. For those in any occupied area, it’s pretty much pure psy-ops and operations.

For the occupied, it’s finding ways large and small to hurt the occupier. Big and showy is great for morale, but never forget that nibbling away at the edges can work wonders too. Food, as discussed the other day, is but one means of hitting at the occupier.

Water systems are a good one. While contaminating the water supply is an option, the harder thing to prevent is damage to the delivery systems (and boy can you get creative with just a few things from the home supply or hardware store. Hot water is needed for multiple things, from dishes and washing clothes to bathing. Industrial boilers and heaters are simple on one level, and incredibly complex on others. Pity when critical components fail or go missing, especially when it is hard to get spares. Just even switching hot for cold has a psychological effect, especially if combined with a host of other ‘nuisance’ things going on.

Electrical? Even better. It’s amazing how many complexes and facilities depend on two or three large transformers for primary power. Transformers that are in the open, depend on oil and other fluid inside to function, and have some control electronics nearby. Industrial acid thrown or sprayed on them might not be detected immediately, and while it takes time, that can be a good thing. Snipers potting them so that oil leaks or other damage is done is another. Heck, a satchel charge or three tossed into the transformer compound will do the trick too. Thing is, no matter how direct or creative you get, those types of transformers are expensive to replace and may take time to replace as there may not be a ready supply of replacements.

Another thought is that modern electronics (and even basic electrical appliances) don’t react well if the electricity coming in isn’t precisely the right voltage, amperage, etc. Be a shame if the controls got hacked and things got just a bit off.

HVAC systems are another option, and it is surprising how many are online or have online access. While you can take them out, consider also a period where things work too well then not well enough. Temperature, pressure, have fun. Take out the systems in their headquarters, military or civilian. Particularly if they have an underground bunker of some type, as it is going to get hot fast without ventilation and AC.

In addition, of course, are the normal targets for sabotage: rail, roads, power lines, airports, depots, etc. Pick and choose your battles for maximum damage with conserving your people as much as practical. It’s not just people getting caught and killed, it’s that even with cell structure things can happen where more than one cell or string gets rolled up and technical means exposed.

AvGas and Jet Fuel are easy to compromise, and that contamination may not show up until craft are operational. I had the fun joy joy one day of being part of an emergency grounding at Ft. Rucker because of contaminated fuel. The cows were rather bemused by our rapid appearance among them, and we sat and watched each other while waiting to get word on if it was safe for us to start back up and head in to the barn.

Which reminds me that it’s time to share a bit with you about Bryan Gibson. Bryan was a veteran, a talented artist, and had a story idea that he was playing with that involved sabotage that would be extremely effective and not easily detectible at first. Simply put, change the tolerances in the control chips (same chips run an awful lot of stuff) on any number of systems by a decimal point. Self-driving vehicles either are suddenly wildly avoiding non-existent hazards, or slamming into buildings and other vehicles. Think of all the things with electronic controls, and imagine what happens if the tolerance is off by one decimal point. BTW, people didn’t like Bryan being OPFOR either, especially after he successfully “blew up” a base operations center/command post during an exercise. God Bless my friend, you are missed.

Die Hard had a point. If somehow an airport’s systems were hacked and the decimal got moved on some of the electronic guidance systems, life would get interesting. “Landing” a hundred feet off the ground is just as bad as a landing approach for one hundred feet under the ground. Even ten feet will be interesting to bad. Much more likely to have survivors, but the aircraft and runways involved are a different matter.

Now, for those complaining that a lot of what I’m describing won’t drive out or destroy the enemy that is invading/occupying the location. By itself, no, it won’t. But, when you attack the important things, would you rather they be guarded by alert and healthy troops, or by troops who are miserable as in cold wet, tired, hungry, etc.? The nuisance operations allow a lot of opportunity to damage morale and combat effectiveness while minimizing exposure of your people and assets. It also increases the chances of success for the larger operations while again reducing some of the odds against your people.

Besides, it can make your occupier do your work for you. For example, the Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, had a lot of “bad luck” with ammunition depots. Just look at the Severomorsk Disaster, where said bad luck went on for several days. Igor (Ivan’s not bright younger brother) is prone to sneaking smokes in places he shouldn’t on a fairly regular basis it seems. Again, cold, tired, hungry, etc. troops tend not to make great judgements. Use it and exploit it.

Now, how much of this are we seeing in the Ukraine right now? Good question. The problem is that the ‘nuisance’ ops are not going to make the news. You find them in the Telegram channels and other communications back home. Are they going on? I suspect that to some extent they are. When it comes to the larger things that are happening, it’s hard to tell if it was Igor sneaking a smoke or a nice partisan/irregular or special forces operation. Which is as it should be in many respects. If you are the invaded/occupied, it’s better not to make the news and let as much as possible be put down to “bad luck.”

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Welcome to this morning’s session of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. Yesterday, we began a look at the lessons learned about asymmetrical/irregular warfare from the Russia-Ukraine war. There are a lot of lessons, but the real trick is to break the normal cycle of fighting the last war and find the right lessons instead.

Today, we’re going to take a look on the micro scale into psy-ops and effective resistance for regular, special, and irregular forces. Some of what we’ve seen reinforces current (and historical) practice, and some shows either innovation or the direction for more innovation.

For a number of reasons, I want to start with one of my favorite stories from the early days of the war. The lady who cooked a poison dinner. Yeah, it’s been done before and if you do it, unless you want an ugly death, it’s a good idea not to stick around. In this iteration, a nice older lady cooked up a large pot of something with a large amount of poison, and served it to a few dozen Russian troops if I remember correctly.

The story may or may not be true. I have not dug into it, because it doesn’t matter as it was very effective propaganda. If it built up Ukrainian morale that’s great, but what it did do was put a strain on the invaders. Was that meal they were given (or stealing) real, or poisoned? It created uncertainty and put an extra strain on food logistics as local food could not be trusted in many areas. More on the logistics angle in a bit.

Michael Z. Williamson wrote about this in one of his stories (book?) with a number of occupying soldiers going missing and then having their dog tags show up in the food being served their fellows. Along with the psychological impact, the occupiers could no longer trust the local suppliers and had to start bringing in all food from elsewhere if I remember correctly.

A dog tag, name tape, or other ID showing up in stew, sausage, or even a bag of salad is going to have a strong effect. Never mind that it is improbable, to say the least, that such would survive the processing and cooking intact. It still will have the impact and no amount of reassurance from higher is going to be believed. Especially if it is from missing or locally buried troops.

I’ve been keeping an eye out for some other things but such rarely grabs the attention generated by HIMARS, drones, and the like. These are only going to be found as, er, grouching, in messages home or such. To damage or destroy combat readiness and effectiveness, you don’t need to kill. You just need to be bad.

For example, if there is a mess hall, switch the incoming salt and sugar. You are talking large amounts of ingredients and food, and if you put either in place of the other you’ve just rendered that food or drink inedible.

“Accidental” contamination is another way to make things bad. Years ago, we used an industrial soap to coat the outside of pots used for cooking over open fires. This made clean-up much, much, much easier. The only problem was, it took just a few grains to have everyone who ate from the contaminated pot (or whatever the contents of that pot went into) sitting/squatting wherever they could for several hours even with anti-diarrheal medicines.

Sadly, it’s not hard to contaminate food. Meat is very easy to contaminate, and salads can be a microbial delight. Unwashed hands can be almost as good as deliberate application of nasty things. Do it upline as far as you can, and it becomes safer for the person who’s doing it and harder to defeat for the occupier. In fact, I can remember a time growing up when canned items were getting recalled for botulism in much the way salads are now with E. Coli. One slip and that could become a factor again.

Contamination, poor ingredients, poor quality control, and you have bad food. One of the quickest boosts for morale in a troop is a good hot meal. Rob them of that, and you have a very unhappy troop.

It is more than just psychological. As noted with the soap above, a possibly significant number of troops now require medical attention and/or supervision, which ties up the medical staff and/or medics. Other troops and staff are tied up in the care as well, may have to pull double shifts, and you also have to start over on the food, possibly even throwing out all ingredients. Multiple blows in a potentially easy strike.

Which has made me wonder about some of the grouching on the Russian channels. Normal problems with their fracked up logistics situation? Or someone getting creative to add to those issues?

Now, another micro application of some macro information. The real trick to making life fun for any invader or occupier is to determine where they are having logistical issues, then adding to them. I think it an immutable law of war that you are always going to be short on something, often several somethings. As the defender/resistance, it behooves you to figure out what those are and making the situation worse.

Early on, it became apparent in the Ukraine that military trucks and tires for any vehicles were a major weak point. It also became clear without a lot being said that regular, special, and irregular forces were all quite cheerfully potting tires and damaging trucks beyond ready repair. When you see the Russians building up sandbags and revetments to protect the tires of vehicles, you know you have a gold target.

That’s when, if you can, you go all out. Caltrops of various sizes are fairly easy to produce even in a home shop, and since you’re not having to build them to last for decades you might even be able to 3-D print them. Who cares if they break, especially if they break apart inside a tire or body.

Heck, if you can find them, children’s jacks can be ground into something that will work on troops and civilian grade tires. Boards with nails through them work well too. Spray paint the boards and nails as appropriate, and they can be hard to detect. Police spike strips can work too.

Thing is, if you know where a patrol will be going or the advancing forces will be traveling, make it fun for them. If you have them, put out caltrops of all sizes not only on the roads, but likely areas in fields and especially in areas where troops are going to take cover from an ambush. If not a real ambush, set up booby traps to create something from which they have to maneuver or take cover. Net result, tires blown, vehicles as easier targets, and troops taken out of the fight after stepping/landing on the caltrops. Pretty much same with simple nails through boards with a bit of camo. Oh, and don’t forget to contaminate the nails, caltrops, etc. just because you care.

This year, it was tires and trucks. What will it be next year? The trick is to find out where there are logistical issues and go at it from every level. For regular forces, it might be sending some arty to a supply depot, a civilian warehouse, or wherever a supply of that unobtainium is being stored. Special forces can go after smaller concentrations or, better yet, source materials or production if within reach. Irregular forces can make them use up whatever it is. In the process, all can sap the will of the opposing/occupying troops and security, and hopefully make as many of them as possible combat ineffective in the process.

In the case of the Ukraine, troops that can’t move can’t ride to the rescue when other troops are attacked. They also go from being a potential strike force to a target. Any time and any way you can immobilize any number of troops, it’s a good thing. Remember the deliberate flooding that forced the Russians off the roads???

This winter, I’m going to be watching to see what is done to take advantage of the weather. A cold and wet troop is a miserable troop. A cold and wet troop without the proper gear or working gear is dead in a Ukrainian or Russian winter. If not dead, they are a medical case. Either way, combat ineffective. I really would not be surprised if the partisans/irregulars find some unique and innovative ways to make the winter even worse for the Russian troops.

Remember, the key is to out think the enemy, to make them react and to keep them off balance. Getting creative on the micro scale has effects far out of proportion to the size of the action.

I had thought about adding one more thing, proposed by the late Bryan Gibson, bit maybe it will fit better tomorrow or in a post on its own.