I knew last night it was going to be interesting when I heard from multiple sources that FORTRESS had been activated in Moscow and loyal troops (or at least troops with loyalty that could be assured by various means) were being sent to secure key facilities. Lots of RUMINT flying around along with some interesting reports.
This morning sees a so-far successful march towards Moscow that I’m having a hard time believing happened on the fly. All the Wagner ops so far show prior planning and preparation. Rather than a coup, this comes across as a revolution and yes there is a difference.
The Russian governmental response so far evokes the term-of-art “clusterfuck.” They appear to have been caught flat-footed and without a clue on how to respond. Attacks on the Moscow column appear to be piecemeal and uncoordinated. The only active opposition in Rostov is coming from Kadyrov’s Chechen troops (apparently). Attacking fuel depots is an interesting choice that will have little immediate impact in this case.
Which brings us to the heart of the matter. This may succeed, even if completely crushed. For all that a number of regional politicians and others are swearing loyalty to Vladimir, one does have to question the sincerity. Others are either hopping on the Prighozin bandwagon or stirring the waters on their own. At least one nominally independent member of the Federation has informed Vladimir that his country regards this as a purely internal Russian matter.
More concerning for Moscow should be how fast things went from ‘who are you and you need to go’ by the citizens of Rostov-on-Don to the Wagner troops, to the citizens bringing food and drink to those same troops. Look at the reactions of the average citizens to the March on Moscow. Hell, if the SIGINT intercept reports are true in regards the chatter in and between various Russian units in Ukraine/Crimea, the Russian MoD might be getting ready to have a Very Bad Day, if not more.
What’s more, Vladimir’s attack dog turned on him. This matters to Russian mores in a way few Westerners can grasp. Here, we are used to politicians having all the loyalty of jackals coming upon road kill. Things work different there. This is going to be seen as a weakness, a vulnerability, even if Prighozin fails.
For now, we can but wait and watch. I think the only sure thing is that it is going to be interesting.
UPDATE: Interesting is one word, that’s for sure. Does not add up based on what we know. Ergo, there’s more, and more people, involved than we know. Knowing who’s fingers were in this is even more important now. Keeping the ears open and waiting to see what happens next.