Aviation/Aerospace – The Laughing Wolf

The Case For New Space Embryology Experiments

As I mentioned yesterday in my post about Breakfast with Instapundit, we verified that there was never a follow-up to the Frog Embryology Experiment (FEE) on Spacelab J/STS-47. I talked about that experiment, and it’s implications, in my Sex In Space post a while back. For those interested in the mission, there is a link to download a PDF of the mission brochure here.

I will also note that while many missions did 90-Day and 1-Year science reports, I can’t find any record of such for Spacelab J. In researching the Frog Embryology Experiment I found a potential reason for now follow-up experimentation in that the lead investigator (PI), Kenneth A. Souza, tragically passed away unexpectedly while still quite young. However, I was able to get in contact with one of his co-investigators, Steven D. Black, who was kind enough to share a copy of a paper done on the experiment and some general observations with me.

I’ve read the paper (PNAS, Vol. 92, March 1995, pp 1975-1978), and confirmed that my memory of “funky” tadpoles in orbit was partially correct. To quote from the abstract: “Eggs were fertilized in vitro, and although early embryonic stages showed some abnormalities, the embryos were able to regulate and produce nearly normal larvae.” As I noted in the previous post, they did grow into normal frogs that could reproduce normally once back on Earth. There were also some differences in lung size between the microgravity and 1G tadpoles/frogs, but this did resolve as well over time with exposure to a 1G environment. But, what happens if there is no rapid return to 1G?

However, the authors of the study (and paper) note that more experimentation in regards amphibians and other vertebrates. Sadly, this has not happened and I think it is time to do so. Especially given that within the next few years (if all goes well) we are likely to become a truly interplanetary species. The U.S., China, and others are looking at lunar bases. Elon has his eye on Mars (and beyond to the asteroids I suspect). I’m with Elon in respect to having such settlements as “lifeboats” if bad things happen on Earth. Given that we are in a major change of how things are done (see here if you didn’t read it the first tiime), and those who have been in power are not happy at seeing it end, not to mention politicians are fairly stupid overall, I think lifeboats are a great idea. Frankly, lots of them. I want The Island Worlds and I want them ASAP.

But, to truly have that and to deal with the fact that boys and girls are going to be boys and girls whether on Earth, Mars, the Moon, etc., we really need to be sure we understand embryology under those other circumstances. The original abnormalities seen in the FEE are a concern for me. Yes, they did appear to self-regulate and recover; but, do we really understand the “why” in either case? Do we know that this will hold true for other experiments or future generations? No, we don’t, and so we need to get such data rather quickly. Which means ISS is right out and we need to make full utilization of commercial space.

On the previous post, you my good and kind readers, helped flesh out the basic hardware and protocol. Let’s expand on that a bit, and see what we can come up with as a suggestion for those who can do something about this need.

First, the hardware will require a glovebox or similar concept for in vitro fertilization, and microgravity “living quarters” for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. It will also need four centrifuges that can contain “living quarters”/development chambers for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. The centrifuges should be divided as follows: 1G (control); 0.5G; 0.38G (Mars); and 0.16G (Luna). While it would be nice to have an additional centrifuge at 0.75G, it’s not essential and this beast is going to be enough of weight and space constraint as it is. Especially since some form of sonogram and/or other imaging is going to be needed to monitor the mammalian embryology and development. We need to be seeing what’s happening before birth.

Hopefully storage will be available outside of the experiment hardware for fixed or preserved samples; and some provision will be needed for returning live specimens to Earth on a regular basis. Otherwise, storage of preserved and live specimens needs to be incorporated in the hardware design. I will note that the Spacelab Frog Environmental Unit (FEU) could make a good start for helping with an updated design.

Frogs having been frequent fliers over the years, from sounding rocket experiments to the FEE on Spacelab, they make a good place to start. Lots of good data extant for comparison, known quantity in terms of resilience, handling, etc.

Where we have less knowledge (to the best of my knowledge) is mammalian development. While monkeys have flown in space, their size does not make them good subjects for such experimentation. Mice come to mind, but may not be optimal. We need rapid development and maturity, small size, and fairly resilient. Thoughts?

The basic protocols would be very similar to the FEE. Fertilize, grow, gather data, gather samples, and once mature start the next generation. For amphibian and mammalian I’d like to see this run out 10-15 generations. If a regular return service is available, it would be good to return at least one male and one female of each generation to Earth (mammalian, more better) and several of the amphibians of each generation to see how they do over time.

My two largest concerns, again, are normal development and the differences seen in lung size/development between microgravity and 1G tadpoles. Yes, they all did “normalize” and grow into normal adult frogs. But, will that happen without exposure or a full return to a 1G environment? Will this hold true for mammals? Pretty important questions, and just the start of some that are occurring to me. We are a predator species optimized for a 1G environment, what happens when we develop in a totally different environment?

Okay, there are the main concerns, some thoughts on hardware and protocol. Let’s flesh this out a bit and see if we can find someone who can make this happen.

EDIT I: Added link to PDF of PNAS paper.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

More Soon

Things got busy, and I even managed to get in a quick 20+ miles on the bike yesterday afternoon. Last few miles were on me as I succeeded in running down the battery while out. More on that and the possible fundraiser soon.

I’m also in contact with one of the co-investigators for the Frog Embryology Experiment on Spacelab J. Sadly, the person I knew as the PI passed away unexpectedly a few years ago. However, the CI has shared some information with me that will be in a post soon.

Also, working on my action plan post conference. Implemented the easy part, now working on the rest.

Standby, more soon.

DCA & Philadelphia Follow-Up

For those interested, the preliminary report on DCA is out, and if you are unfamiliar with the process, it is mostly focused on what happened. Not, repeat, not, the how and why of what happened. That comes with later reports. I’m looking for a written copy as it should have basic pilot info (hours, medical, etc.). The barometric pressure issue is being emphasized, and they are looking at how it may have effected the altimeter(s) and other systems. Most importantly, the report makes urgent recommendations about Route 4 and closing same when certain runways are in use. The full conference is here:

On the Philadelphia crash, the report is written and is worth a read. Again, it is a preliminary and is more focused on what happened, not the how or why. Of note for me, it seems the Cockpit Voice Recorder wasn’t working and appears not to have been recording for several years. Pilots were in contact at the time of the accident and no distress call was received. Given the state of the plane (and occupants) I expect reconstruction and any medical exams to take a while and possibly be limited.

Again, it will take time. That’s something few seem willing to grant, but this should be a painstaking process that leaves no stone unturned. So far, it is on par with other investigations. We will see what happens.

Worlds As Islands Afloat In The Sea Of Stars

There are two posts I should be working on today. The first would deal with replacing NATO and nuclear trip wires, which frankly is rather tiresome and even somewhat depressing at this point given how much I’ve had to write on the nuclear topic these last three years. The second is to build on this post advocating an X-Prize for asteroid protection and have some fun.

So, for those and other reasons, I’m going to sit back with a nice glass of old vine zinfandel, and play among the stars and hopefully take you with me. I’ve got some ideas that even now have some exploring them, but I want to throw this out there to see if some of the other ideas find a place where they can take root.

Let me start by saying Elon is very correct in focusing on Mars as a staging ground for taking humanity to the stars. For all that it is at the bottom of a gravity well, it is a well far shallower than Earth. It also offers a variety of opportunities for habitation and more importantly self-sufficient habitation (though I’m going to make a suggestion to improve that here soon).

As I’ve noted a time or two before, Earth is indeed the cradle of humanity — but crib death is still a thing. Right now, we are facing several cusps if you will. Argentina has been turned around and, barring misfortune, saved. Milei has done wonders there and my sincere hope is that Trump 2.o and team can do the same here. Things are off to a great start, but victory is not guaranteed either in terms of finances or of liberty. Remember, the enemy gets a vote and while they are off balance now, cornered rats and desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine can go sideways and hot in a heartbeat; China could be stupid enough to try to take Taiwan; Kim could have an oops with a missile (deliberately or legitimate oops); and, well, you get the picture.

Frankly, mankind needs to be off Earth and spread out in self-sufficient settlements and in large enough populations to survive anything reasonable. To listen to some of the ‘oh we shouldn’t do it crowd’ there’s no way to save humanity if the sun goes super-super-nova or Ragnarku IV comes in and blows up the whole solar system so we just shouldn’t even try. Bull Feathers.

Humanity has always been at its best, and achieved great things that also raised the standard of living across the board, when there were frontiers. Others have explained this far more eloquently and in great detail, but we are at our best when we have frontiers and challenges. Space offers us that in spades, and without many of the issues and problems that were part and parcel of our expansion on Earth.

Mars is a first stop, and Luna and other moons offer the chance for large-scale self-sufficient settlements. We should explore and pursue such. However, I would like to see some of what Dr. Yoji Kondo explored in science and science fiction (writing as Eric Kotani). His book, along with the redoubtable John Maddox Roberts, The Island Worlds, is a good place to start, and is part of the inspiration for the title of this piece.

Actually, we should start with the original book in the series Act of God but it is hard to find even used I understand. And there is good reason to start there as it sets forth an important start to space exploitation that in part inspired a suggestion or two I made in my post on X-prizing asteroid defense. For humanity to live and thrive in space, we need water. There is lots and lots of water available, if we have the will and skill to take it.

Frankly, we need to be looking at comets and more as the ability to separate water from chemical bonds on the moon may not be as easy as previously thought. I’ve been watching a number of discussions amongst those who really know what they are talking about (see Dennis Wingo on X) and we need to be looking at other sources. There does appear to be ice (to varying degrees) on Luna, Mars, and elsewhere, but it is limited. There is potentially a lot more out there in terms of comets and more that could supply space settlements for thousands of years. Even a large number of settlements. Hence, one of the scenarios for the X-prize post is if the asteroid has ice that’s quite a resource to control. Metals and such matter, but water is indeed life.

And speaking of life, I’m going to jump ahead just a bit and point out that asteroid colonies offer a far greater chance for the expansion of the human species. As noted in this post on Sex in Space, we do not appear to know if we can reproduce in space. If there indeed have not been follow-on experiments to the Frog Embryology Experiment, we need to do them and keep in mind that asteroids may offer the best solution. Also, keep in mind that experiments (SCREWBA and the like) on Earth were not done in microgravity but neutral buoyancy, and there is quite a difference between the two. Even people who know better can make mistakes on that.

Okay, back onto track I hope. Planetary bases make sense as a first step out into the solar system. Mars makes a lot of sense, and if you look at the Boring Company and other business ventures of one Elon Musk, you might notice a plan. Living on Mars will require going underground or into mountains and the like because of radiation and solar hazards. Nice that he has a proven means already in place to do that. And if you think that is luck or happenstance, I have a bridge for sale…

But, to supply planetary bases — particularly with water — is going to take something more. To truly start exploiting the resources of the solar system, we need to get out into, and settle, the asteroid belt. This was what Yoji Kondo explored in several of his books, and there are a number of ways to do it along with good reasons to do it.

Nice thing about even just plain rock asteroids: they offer the chance to either mine into them to create shelters and colonies, or they offer the ability to build (pre-fab is great) structures in place on the surface. Need extra shielding? Burrow into a large asteroid and have fun. Need gravity? Simple, trim and spin. This gives you the ability to generate gravity gradients that run from micro/zero gravity up to several times Earth gravity at need.

Why would you need it? Various industrial processes can and do make use of gravity. Also, if we find that certain levels of gravity are needed for successful reproduction in space, they/it can be provided. I really want to see this addressed before the first Mars mission as if it has not already happened (cough) we need to make sure that sex does not lead to tragedy. Nor should we be experimenting using people. That is just plain wrong, and is very easy to prevent.

There are other reasons, including food production. I suspect that aquaculture will provide a lot of protein for space colonies be they planetary or otherwise. However, mankind seems to crave other forms of protein in addition or in replacement. So, having the ability to raise such makes sense to some degree.

If you want a fuller discussion of exploitation and why bases and such are good for that, go read the full series of books. It’s only about four, but they touch on a number of interesting and important scientific theories. Metals, rare Earths, and more are out there if we can but go and claim them. Do your processing in deep space and there go your pollution worries. Heck, do them in orbit and the same holds.

From the point of view of ensuring humanity’s survival in the face of realistic issues, spreading out into the asteroid belt just makes good sense. It is far enough to mitigate some of the effects of the Sun; and, having meters to kilometers of rock between you and a Carrington Event or worse is a very good thing. Also, having humanity spread out around the complete solar system is a very good thing from a survival standpoint. It makes us much harder to kill as a species.

Also, keep in mind that asteroid bases and colonies, or even stations and extraction centers within the belt, dont have to deal with significant gravity wells. It makes it much easier to get around and to get processed materials back to Earth, Mars, or where needed. If we want to launch further out into the solar system, again, this is the place to do it.

Mars is the first step, but if you want to truly make humanity an astral species, and take Mankind to the stars, you are going to do it from the Island Worlds.

Just some thoughts to share.

Asteroid Threat? X-Prize It

Over on X, Stephen Fleming was talking about the need to get on serious asteroid defense. Quick Aside: if you are serious about space and space exploration/exploitation, you should know and follow Stephen. In response to his post and a number of comments, I made a simple suggestion: X-Prize the mission as NASA is not up to it in my opinion.

In the long run, it will be a lot less expensive and likely to drive development of some key industries — not to mention creating new and innovative technologies and applications — than trying to run it as yet another government program. Make it open ended in all the key details: launch systems undefined, method undefined, tech undefined: the only thing that should be defined is success (asteroid does not hit Earth) and if there are any secondary objectives that need to take place (exploration, detection, etc) at the same time.

Make sure that teams can win rather than an individual company. I can think of some interesting and potentially effective partnerships right off the top of my head. It also has the chance to push the launch industry along and get some real competition to Space-X underway, which would be a good thing.

Also, though it would require some long-overdue revisions to space law/treaties, give the successful company twenty-year (pick a period) rights to that asteroid or to any asteroid that poses a threat and is neutralized. Depending on the type of asteroid, there could be some nice materials to be extracted/exploited. If nothing else, novelty sales could be quite the thing. Think about it, what would you pay to own a knife or other object made from the asteroid that threatened Earth? Again, this is an opportunity to start bootstrapping orbital industry and making needed changes to space treaties/law.

Minimize the regulatory process as much as possible. Under the previous administration this was weaponized and that’s the last thing we need right now. Use this as a means to identify problems while impact odds are low, so that we have an effective and robust system/options in place for real need.

Since there is already some huffing and puffing over my contention that NASA is not up to this, let me lay out the basics. First, I have done work for NASA as a contractor on both Spacelab and later SPD/Commercial. I grew up in the 60s on NASA and can-do. Heck, Von Braun himself recruited my cousin Jimmy to join his team and was involved in those heady days. Those days, however, are gone.

Yes, NASA has demonstrated that asteroid deflection can be done. Exercise for the student: look up the full timeline on that, from when it was first proposed to actual implementation. Then look up the budget for that over those years. NASA can still do some amazing things if given enough time and massive budgets.

As part of that, consider also that NASA has not successfully designed and implemented a new man-rated launch system since the mid-70s (STS). The current Constellation/Orion/WhateverElseTheyCallIt literally costs more than a billion dollars per launch, they have launched how many (?) and I could go on but there is no way to consider it a viable and successful system. Keep in mind that most (cough) NASA programs began decades ago.

Then, as I’ve mentioned before, there is the institutional culture of no failure. Not that failure is not an option, but that if there is even a chance something won’t work perfectly in view of the public, it tends to get canned. That also ties into the perfect safety issue, which tends to stifle innovation and more. There is more, but those are going to be two huge hurdles for getting anything done through NASA.

Put anything and everything on the table as an option, from nukes (the government has a small and obscure agency that actually owns all our nukes, DoD merely “leases” them so to speak) to a space broom. Nothing off the table, nothing can’t be tried as keep in mind that the prize only pays out for success.

For planetary defense of this nature, we need fast, we need nimble, we need innovation. Government is going to be the obstacle, not the facilitator. Doing this as an X-prize makes economic sense and opens the doors of economic and scientific advancement in space exploration/exploitation.

Just my two cents…

Oh, and if you missed this wonderful bit at Instapundit a while back:

O it’s Elon this, an’ Elon that, an’ “Chuck ‘im out, the cad!”;
But it’s “Elon, please, a rocket!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.
When the rocks are lookin’ bad, my boys, the rocks are lookin’ bad,
O it’s “Save us, Mr. Elon!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.

DC Crash Update

The NTSB has released it’s first real update on the horrific crash in DC, which was discussed here. I’m keeping an eye out for the Philadelphia crash update and will post it as well.

No real answers, which is how this goes. In fact, more questions were raised and the information in regards altimeters and other systems does suggest a number of things. Again and again: give them time. If you have never followed an NTSB investigation, take some time and learn about the process. Anyone telling you that what was released is a smoking gun or provides answers is either an idiot and/or a grifter/liar.

Meantime, listen to the entire briefing for yourself.

Those Aircraft Accidents

As everyone knows, we’ve had the horrible crash involving a Blackhawk helicopter with a CRJ jet at Reagan; the crash of an air ambulance in Philadelphia; and, people are freaking out over the engine fire that required an evacuation. There has also been a huge amount of disgusting, despicable, and vile attacks on the helicopter crew even before their bodies were cold. To say that I am repulsed by what is being said, and especially by WHO is saying some of it, is an understatement.

Let’s start with some basics that are getting missed by far too many online or in the media. First up, there’s this whole thing called an investigation to be done. We really don’t know anything at this point, as there are few established facts beyond the fact that the crashes/incidents occurred. There is a process for such things, and for aviation a very specialized process.

If you can, look for a copy of an older booklet “Air Accidents and the News Media” from the sadly defunct (the late Martin Caidin and I did what we could to try and save it) Aviation/Space Writer’s Association. While old, the basic process remains much the same even though technology has changed some of the elements of that process. If I ever get moved and can find my copy, will look into scanning it in as a PDF as it is not a large booklet.

The “we want scapegoats and answers now or we will make shit up” crowd are not going to like the process. It is time consuming, because it is thorough. Some things are already underway: data from ATC and other sources has been secured and will be available for examination and review; mechanics and others involved with the flights were or are sequestered and initial statements taken (note, logs and such were taken in the first part I mentioned); and, photos, video, and other efforts to record the scene have been made. All of this has been going on even as recovery of the bodies is underway, and I will note that the only reason anything should have been moved was to recover a body. See the booklet as this is an issue.

Now, comes the hard part. The wreckage, once documented, will be moved into a hangar somewhere to be re-assembled as best possible. Sometimes all you can do is lay it out in the rough shape of the aircraft. It will be examined in detail as some of the smallest things can tell a huge part of the story of what happened. There are metallurgical tests and more that will be done. While this is going on, the Flight Data Recorders will be examined, and based on that yet more controls and parts will be examined grossly and even on a microscopic level.

Even as the mechanical exams are going on, other investigators will be going over all available records of the crews involved. Training, evaluations, and more will be examined, even as autopsy results are gone over thoroughly. Investigators will also talk with friends, family, those they spoke to in the days prior to the event, and try to get an assessment of the psychological condition as well as the physical. There is no detail of their lives that will be off limits.

All of those investigations alone would be time consuming, but as they are investigating they often decide they need additional specialized testing, retesting, and follow-ups. They may need to bring in outside experts to examine things. It all takes time. Also, believe it or not, I’m not listing all the steps. There are others.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) usually does a pretty good job on these. In fact, they’ve solved some crashes that were head scratchers to be polite. It just takes time.

Now then, for all I was on the board of AWA, I am a very low-hour pilot and claim nothing like the expertise of Buzz Patterson and others who have not hundreds but thousands of hours. That said, I’ve also worked a job where if a plane I had worked on had gone down, I would be one of those immediately sequestered. As such, I’ve paid attention to things and will share a few with you.

I want to link to a thread of posts I did on X while recovering from the food poisoning (ongoing). Start here. Within that thread there are links to others including a Blackhawk pilot who provides some excellent perspective. A short version is that the airspace around DC is the worst in the nation, and that’s more than just my opinion. It is congested, it is complex, and it is dynamic. For all that I have a soft spot for Reagan National, it should not still be there. All the runways are at best marginal (too short, 33 worst), and when you add in other corridors, noise abatement, etc. it should not be used as it is used.

ATC is shorthanded (thank you Obama and esp. Sec. Pete of the Biden Regency) because of diversity efforts that have left some 3,000 (4000?) plus qualified individuals denied employment because they were white. Also, the tech used by ATC truly is from the 80s (and late 70s) and has needed upgrading for quite some time. I would love to see Elon’s team take it on as I suspect that much better could be done with commercial off-the-shelf gear for a fraction of what the usual contractors want to charge.

Now then, if you didn’t read the thread and all the links, at least read this from someone who knows Blackhawks, training, and more. My experience with NVG is limited (glad to get some to test, cough) and did not involve flying. That said, read what he said. It’s true.

As a quick aside, reading a good bit on social media from people complaining about the VIP “air taxis” and such. They may/do have a point about people over-using/abusing it as a status thing. Yet, the training flight wasn’t for that, it was for continuity of government. Yes, the practice was for getting leadership out of DC in the event of emergency. It’s pretty constant as it is the true mission for most of the choppers. It really does need to happen.

I’m going to skip ahead a bit here, as to continue on right now leads to a topic where I really want to lose my cool. Which I really shouldn’t do, so…

Let’s skip to the air ambulance. From some of the video that has come out, it appears it suffered an event in flight before it came down. That event appears to be an explosive (or expansive) event. That does NOT mean it was a bomb or missile; but, something occurred in flight that emitted a flash just before the jet started down, and it appeared to be on fire on the way down. Based on the color of the flash, it was not a low-order event. However, the video does not give a lot of details.

That said, it is not confirmed and may or may not be verified. I will note that Robert Davi did several posts on X going into the complex fuel management system for that particular jet. Weight and balance are a thing, and if something happened to send fuel forward…

In both cases, smart and/or knowledgeable people are choosing not to speculate absent facts. The fact is, we DO NOT YET HAVE FACTS. That said, allow me to posit the following:

There is no one cause for the DC crash. In fact, I already see multiple issues that may have contributed to the crash. While, yes, I do have a theory, it does not rest on one person. Read the threads on X and you begin to get an idea as there were multiple issues.

Also, for all the baying about lack of experience, what the everliving do you you think training missions are for? In this case, I do not yet buy into lack of experience. I will, however, point out that when you are with an IP, you are a bit nervous and minding your Ps and Qs.

Further, when flying with an IP they are in command and responsible for the aircraft. They have to catch mistakes the person being instructed makes; they have to teach you to handle the unexpected; and, teach you to get the routine right. Among other things I’ve had an IP do to me was to effectively kill the engine a mile or more out from the airport and tell me to make it. I did. Could that IP have gotten the engine back on and gotten us down if I had bleeped up? You bet your bippy. In this case, in DC, the actions of the Blackhawk rest with the IP, no matter who was doing what at the time.

Which make the vile and loathsome attacks on Captain Rebecca Lobach even worse. That is not to say or claim that she didn’t make a mistake or mistakes. What I am saying is two fold: we DO NOT KNOW yet if she did or not; and, even if she did the ultimate legal responsibility rests with the IP. To trash her, her service, and her skill without any shred of proof simply to make money or political points is beyond despicable. It is bereft of honor, humanity, or integrity.

As for those making hay (and engagement bucks) off the fact that her social media accounts were scrubbed, along with those of some family members, allow me to ask you this: have you looked into the mirror or is the torch you carry blinding you? Given the braying mob, the trash already being talked, and the vicious smears I can’t blame them. You can excuse your behavior however you wish, but you can’t justify it.

Just a quick note for those who are trashing her because she is female. I’ve got a suggestion where you can stick your ignorant misogyny. The woman my Dad dated after mom died was the baby sister of his best friend growing up. Happens she was one of the first female pilots in the U.S. She was taken with flight, and the local IP/flight school cheerfully taught her for free with one caveat — she had to fly low and wave at all the guys below as they would then come for paid lessons as they couldn’t let a guurrrlll outdo them like that. It worked, and she ended up in some competitions and such in the 30s, properly chaperoned. She was good enough that when war came, Jacqueline Cochran personally asked for her help. If you don’t know who that is, you are not in aviation and should look it up.

Now, as for Philadelphia, again I have a theory but prefer to wait for some facts. The fact that this service lost a plane a year or more ago may or may not be germane to this crash. That may be a discussion for another day.

As for the engine fire, it’s not good but not that unusual either. Wish it were.

The fact is, the aviation safety system is in trouble. It has been since Obama first stuck an oar in and messed with hiring and more. The technology has needed updating for decades. Frankly, I’m optimistic right now given the new team in place and that they should have the backing to make substantive positive changes. Who knows, maybe some of the 200+ NTSB safety recommendations that have been ignored might get implemented.

For now, let’s sit back and wait for some solid data before flying off the handle. Let’s get some facts before defaming people. Let’s give the investigation time to actually do what it is supposed to do.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Droning

Holding fire on speculation, but will simply note a few quick things:

If memory serves, the Chinese have practiced launching drone swarms from container ships (“civilian”) before. If memory serves, there was a Chinese man arrested in California not all that long ago for flying a drone into/over restricted airspace. If memory serves, the Chinese were buying farmland and other real estate near major (inland) military bases for years (with some of us jumping up and down and trying to get it stopped). Was some of that near Wright-Pat?

Now, as to the White House playbook. Isn’t the response to the drones eerily similar to the spy balloon fiasco?

Oh, and don’t forget all those healthy and in-shape military-aged Chinese males that have come across the southern border in the last couple of years.

The more I watch, the more convinced I am that multiple parties are going to do something stupid ahead of Jan 20. I really hope not, but am not going to bet on it.

Just some quick musings…

IRBM Redux

So Vladimir decided to raise the stakes in his ongoing series of threats to go nuclear. What he did was smart on several levels, and incredibly stupid on several more. Let’s take a minute to look at this with a calm if jaundiced eye.

Almost immediately upon starting his “three-day-war” against Ukraine, Vladimir has been threatening to go nuclear. It was a way to try to keep the West (primarily but not exclusively NATO) out of the fray and to discourage any and all help for Ukraine. Frankly, I can’t blame him.

Let’s face it: that is the only threat he has. Even in the massive information bubble in which he and other top leaders (and not just in Russia — look to the last election for great examples here) reside. He is in a silo in a bubble in which bad news, much less reality, rarely enters. For all that, I suspect that he had to know just how much of a paper bear the Russian military had become.

Oh yes, they have all these massive stockpiles of tanks, guns, artillery, etc. Pretty much all of which have rusted to the point it is cheaper and much easier to make new ones than to try to repair/refurbish the rusted hulks. Never mind that many of those items allegedly stockpiled either never existed (corruption) or had been stolen/sold (desperation/survival, plus corruption). If you haven’t been reading my stuff before, I and others have pointed out that many items, including very sensitive systems, had been sold on the black so that troops and workers could eat and survive within an extremely corrupt system.

I’ve also written before about how Vladimir is much like a necromancer in fiction: once the snake has been tossed on the table, you can’t just let things slide. To give in to nuclear blackmail is to ensure worse for the future and our children. It has to be dealt with, firmly, or others will take up the staff as well. Our problem has been the feckless and incompetent Biden Regency, which is Obama III. Keep in mind it was Obama who abrogated our responsibilities to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum when Vladimir decided to take Crimea.

Yet, Vladimir continues to raise nuclear as an option because he has nothing else. He can’t mobilize the manpower numbers needed, and of those who have been brought in (forced in even) are untrained, ill-led, and ill-equiped. There is no realistic way for him to mobilize even a fraction of the numbers needed for full combat, and if he tries the economy crashes hard given how many critical positions are already unfilled. Train drivers (-2,500) are just the tip of that iceberg. Never mind that well over a million of the ‘best and brightest’ of the younger generations decided to go expat over the invasion. Brain drain is a real and dangerous thing. The only way he is getting the arms he needs to any degree is by purchasing (one way or another) from other countries and manning by using foreign troops (hello Kim!).

Now, here’s the problem for him: are the strategic forces in any better shape than any other part of the Russian military (or space program for that matter)? Lots of little things have popped up over the last couple of years. Also, a few larger ones. When Biden visited Ukraine a while back, it appears that Vladimir tried to stage a test launch of a Sarmat/Satan II ICBM as a show of force and threat. That didn’t happen, and it appears it may have been rather spectacular at the launch site. Also, keep in mind the corruption that still plagues the regular military was also part-and-parcel of the strategic forces as well. Of all the parts, systems, weapons delivered, how many were real? Also keep in mind that Sarmat was supposed to have replaced all other ICBMS as much as ten years ago. Hasn’t happened. There are reasons for that.

Which brings us to the recent IRBM launch. Here’s a decent article on the system itself. For those looking at pedigree, Oreshnik derives from Rubezh, which derives from Yars, which in turn dervies from the Topol if I remember correctly (Topol minus a stage I think). Keep in mind, that the USSR was always good at ‘one-offs’ in terms of development. They could, would, and did come up with ‘showcase’ projects that were (esp. given tech limitations) quite impressive in their own way. Where they flat out suck has always been in production. I suspect that is a large part of what is happening with the Sarmat. It’s happened on other military systems before, and it’s worth remembering that on the civilian side so-called ‘identical’ Soyuz and other space vehicles could not exchange parts because each was essentially a custom build.

The only thing they ever seem to have been able to mass produce reliably that had any complexity (cough) was the AK. They even had to sub out mines and more to the satellite countries. Heck, some of the best AKs came from the satellite countries to be honest.

For me, I am very interested in the Re-entry Vehicles and the reported sub-munitions. Especially given the reported Mach 11 speeds on terminal.

Regular RVs tend not to be very accurate by modern standards, having at best about a fify-foot CEP. To be honest, Soviet CEP sucked and at one point was up to ten miles. They improved that, but to make up for ongoing issues used much larger warheads. Here, the use of sub-munitions seems to imply either an intended conventional use or that multiple weapons may be needed to make up for other shortcomings. Could be off on that, but it was the first thing that popped into my mind. The other thing that did pop up after that was deploying multiple weapons to take out an extended column (or fortifications) in a gap or line.

It is also rather unprecedented to give the world (and your enemies) this good a look at the operations of a system allegedly in development. Not to mention the chance to recover pieces/fragments/chunks for analysis. Yep, some have already been found and I guarantee the tech intel types are salivating at the chance to examine them.

And speaking of stupid-on-steroids, threatening a U.S. base on another country’s soil isn’t bright. That’s not something that can be ignored (at least by competent people, which seem to be in short supply under the Biden Regency). It sets the stage for guaranteed escalation of force if anything does fly towards, or worse yet hit, that base. Given the apparent parlous state of Russia’s strategic and conventional forces (and our own, sadly), that’s really not a place you want to go. Especially given that a new administration is inbound.

Which brings up some very non-technical considerations. Trump was NOT Vladimir’s choice by any means. Vladimir was quite open and serious about supporting the H/W ticket because he saw them both as easily manipulated idiots in the service of Obama around whom he has run rings for years. Same for the Hildebeast and several others. Also, wonder what his good buddy (with the knife at his back) Xi may have said about the governor…

If Vladimir wants to cement what gains he has, and set the stage for another attack later, he needs to do it under the current Regency. And he needs to do it quick. What could make things move faster than a nuclear threat? Also, don’t forget that in all the ways that matter, Vladimir is already at war with much of the West. So far it’s been mostly low-level stuff, like this reported at Legal Insurrection (if you aren’t reading LI and esp. Leslie’s science reporting, you are missing out). The sabotage is more than troubling as it has a greater chance of escalation than nuclear sabre rattling.

Under most circumstances, I would say that the chances of things going nuclear under Vladimir were under ten percent. For all that he may be many things, I generally don’t think he’s THAT stupid. It’s why I tend to see the IRBM launch as an act of desperation even more than an act of careful escalation.

The only problem is, as I’ve been pointing out for two-plus years now, desperate people do stupid things. Russia finds itself battered upon the rocks such that any chance of the dream of Russkiy Mir are fading faster than the career of the Snow White actress. They are beset by matters economic, demographic, disease (AIDs and more), brain drain, and unrest in restive provinces. On our end of things, you have an administration and an administrative state that sees the end of the world as they know it. Which is why I’m not quite sure what to think about this article (HT Rich Lowe) suggesting a push for nuclear war to prevent the loss of power. Have to admit, what I would have considered unthinkable not all that long ago is now very thinkable.

Likely is the key, however. I don’t think we are there yet, and while it never hurts to prepare for the worst, I am not moving to gather the last-minute prep if I think the bombs are about to fly. I’m still very much trying to take care of basics (and thank you to everyone who donated recently! Your gifts are helping me get caught up on several things including needed OTCs and winter clothing).

I think where we are is an effort to cripple operations by Ukraine and to give an administration, that has ample reasons to forestall various efforts and investigations by an incoming administration, a valid excuse to move rapidly on a “settlement” beneficial to all (except the peoples of the countries involved).

If we were moving faster and closer to a nuclear exchange, I would expect to see some other signs. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I’m doubtful for now. If it does happen, as I’ve been saying for a while now, I will be surprised if twenty percent of the systems work. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, as there really is only one way to do so. But, I don’t see a need for fear or panic just yet.

I do think you should be prepared, as preparedness always pays. Hit the preparedness archive at need, and if you have questions, sound out. I hope to do a bit more on preparedness soon.

So, grab a towel and don’t panic. Be prepared, up your preparedness, and keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

A Walk In Space

This morning, I got to watch two commercial astronauts take a walk in space using commercially developed EVA suits via a commercially designed and built spacecraft. I can’t tell you how amazing and important this is both technologically, socially, and economically.

I’ve already seen what I believe are some bad takes. Most revolve around ‘NASA did this years ago’ or ‘bunch of rich people doing rich people things’ and I think both are tremendously wrong. Let me tell you why.

Go back and look at what it took for NASA to develop the first EVA suits, then look at what it then took to develop the EVA suits used on ISS. Now, then look at how much it took to develop same and how many years it took. Now, if you want to have a little fun, look and see if any of the developments, materials, etc. are subject to patents.

You might be surprised on that score. Private companies that develop certain materials, products, etc. can and do patent them even if the work is either for or used by NASA. There is a fascinating story behind some specialty LEDs as just one example.

So, while it has been done, look at what Space X did in a relatively short period of time (at least by NASA timelines). They designed, developed, tested, and refined an EVA suit that could be used on this flight. What’s more, the spacewalk today was intended to test that suit and that’s what was done. Simple engineering test, but with profound impact as I will be willing to bet that the suit is further refined and upgraded by the end of the year.

In “traditional” space development, the process would likely involve a beltway bandit or two for analysis, design review, etc., then a new design, then a rather lengthy development process and in a year or three (or decade) there might be a new and very expensive EVA suit produced. If you really want to know what I think of the process, think Starliner from Woeing.

In fact, rather than years I bet Space X has a refined suit ready for further use and testing by early next year. That the next spacewalk is more ambitious and will once again not only allow things to be done now, but result in further refinements and upgrades. Rapid refinements and upgrades based on actual use testing. Just like what they are doing with launch.

While we are at it, take a look at the revolution Space X has already kicked off in spacesuit design. They look like spacesuits, they fit a wide variety of people, are comfortable and easy to use (according to reports from those who have used them), and it was all done relatively rapidly and economically. Now, compare and contrast to what NASA has done and the development cycle of same. Next step: look at the time and expense developing NASA’s modular EVA suit design, that only fits a limited range of body types (in practical terms), how long it took to develop, the cost of development, and the pace of refinement on same.

Just as Space X has changed the economics of launch, they are now on the path to change the economics (and ergonomics) of the USE of space. What do you want to bet that they have also already looked ahead at some specialty suits?

So, no, this morning was not something mankind has never done before. It’s more important and paradigm shattering than that. Just as they are revolutionizing launch, this is the first step in revolutionizing the use of space. Change and testing in weeks/months, not years or decades. This will also have the ability to reduce costs as well, which further opens up space and space resource exploration and exploitation. Have spacesuit, will travel.

Nor was this morning some rich man’s indulgence. It was an engineering test and proof of concept, that will help open up space to all. It is a major step towards that future Heinlein and others envisioned where average people could go and do rather than just an elite few. The elite few are making that future possible, yes. But what they did this morning opens the door to an affordable, effective, and non-government controlled access to space, and to living and working in same.

If the governments (including ours) don’t kill Elon and Space X over X and other politics, we have a future in space. We have reliable and increasingly economical launch capability. We have just demonstrated the ability to live and work in space. Next step, habitats. I’m going to skip Starlink (and Boring) for today, though it has a role in this as well.

Welcome to a potential great future. Pity so few people will notice it, or recognize what happened this morning for what it is. For those who do get it, hang on, the ride is going to get bumpy but if we and Space X survive, we are on track to truly become a spacefaring species.

D.D. Harriman, call your office.

(Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please. Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please)