The Laughing Wolf – Commentary, Punditry, and More

The Only Surprise Is…

Yes, this is from Politico (Europe), a source I don’t normally trust, but it was linked by Stephen Green at Instapundit, and you do want to read it. My only surprise at reading that Poland and other countries are looking at becoming nuclear powers is that the discussions were this open.

One nice thing about sitting and listening is that you sometimes realize that there are conversations going on in the background, very quietly, very privately. At least at first. Sometimes questions get asked, or comments made, that clearly are testing the waters as to what the recipient, or the recipient’s government, might think on a related topic. It is an old dance, but it does have a purpose.

For what it is worth, I suspect similar conversations to those that have been happening in Poland are happening elsewhere in the region. More than just a couple of former countries controlled by Moscow have no desire to end up in that position again with either Russia or any other government. The Eastern European countries are not only looking at Russkiy Mir to their east, but are also having to look West at the increasingly totalitarian EU. To the East, it also hasn’t helped that in addition to pushing for a new Russian empire (Russkiy Mir, of which Ukraine was to be the start, wrote about it at the time) that Vladimir has not been just rattling the nuclear sabre, but waving it around like a drunk. To the West, the EU overturning the results of the election in Romania because they didn’t like the results has not gone over well in a number of capitals (and not just in Europe). The increasing attempts to bring Poland, Hungary, and others to heel over immigration adds to those concerns.

They also are influenced by what happened in Ukraine years back, when Ukraine gave up all the Soviet nukes on it’s territory in exchange for being offered protection by Russia, the U.S., and the UK (Budapest memorandum, not a formal treaty). Non-proliferation, peace in our time! It is worth remembering that sometimes (every time) even with real treaties, political promises by any nation are written with a stick on flowing waters.

Now, add to it that nuclear non-proliferation has been rather openly dying for a few decades now. In addition to the open members, new and old, to the nuclear club I suspect rather strongly that more than one country not openly a member has functional nuclear weapons. I also suspect that if the mad mullahs are not taken out of power, immediately, that Iran will soon be a member of the club as well.

For all that I really would love to live in a world without nuclear weapons, reality is that I/we do and it behooves us to plan and act accordingly. As it was when it was primarily between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, peace or oblivion resides in the hands of the least stable leader. I would love to be wrong, but I’ve long suspected that it is a ‘when’ and not an ‘if’ a nuclear weapon will be used in anger again.

Now, add in that I suspect Iran is not the only country working hard to become a member of the nuclear club. You don’t have to go through the Manhattan Project to get to be a member, and you don’t have to be as unsubtle as Iran in creating a viable nuclear weapons program.

The fact that Poland has stepped out in the open like this is interesting, and a bit amusing. If you go back and read this post and the linked posts, I got called some names for suggesting that Poland be made a nuclear power and be the northern anchor for a new, non-military, ‘nato’ (lower case deliberate) that can stand as a bulwark against anything from the East as well as against a Muslim/Islamist West. While I think there is still a chance to prevent an effective European Caliphate (England is starting to wake up, but…), I also still very much think we need a Christian bulwark in the East if Western Civilization is to survive.

I also think some open and honest conversations on what is likely to happen when nuclear non-proliferation efforts are fully dead. I loathe Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) as a doctrine; but, we do need to devise some doctrines for handling obvious situations in a world where there are few bars to becoming a member of the nuclear club. This needs to happen at the staff levels so that when higher finally realizes there is a problem, there are already some well-thought options (some maybe even tested) available to them.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Pilgrimage Update: Initial Mount Athos Approval

My plans for the day have changed a bit as this morning I submitted (again) my request to the Greek government to visit Mount Athos this spring. You actually end up having to get multiple approvals — effectively — as Mount Athos is a semi-autonomous region.

To go visit, you first have to be male as no women/girls are allowed within the region. You also have to apply to a special office of the Greek government that controls visiting. They check to see that you are male (per photo and passport), Orthodox (baptismal certificate), and have the blessing of your priest or higher (letter vouching for you, certifying you are a member in good standing of the Church, etc.).

My understanding is that it used to be possible to request a visit close to a year in advance. That, however is not the current mode of operation and one has to apply three months in advance. They are quite specific about that as it turns out, and my initial application last fall came back with a note to apply again three months before the visit. And they did indeed mean exactly three months. I finally hit that milestone, applied, and now have approval to go and stay there on some specific dates.

There is a certificate/documentation I will have to pick up in Greece before attempting to find a boat to take me to Mount Athos. A friend has hired a guide for me, that he has used on previous visits who will be assisting me the entire time I am in Greece. It should make the paperwork, bureaucracy, and other delights much more manageable. The next step is to actually contact monasteries on Mount Athos and arrange to spend time on there. There is one I really want to visit, and two I’m drawn towards but am letting my spiritual guides and the Greek guide make suggestions and guide me on the last two.

Now that this is approved, I can begin planning the rest of the trip. I’ve already reached out to my Bishop, who is providing guidance, and am now looking at the second major part of the trip, which is spending up to a week at a monastery in Bulgaria. I’m also working on being able to take my final in my current/first seminary course while in Bulgaria. If anyone wants to get me a Starlink Mini, drop me a line. (smile) For all that I would like to go ahead and make reservations for some of the planned cooking lessons, I’m going to wait until we have a few other things booked.

I want to thank all of you for the support and encouragement. Some of you have helped cover costs for the trip and the seminary, and I very much appreciate it. If you want to help, check below. Now, to get back to the planned schedule of the day. Maybe.

No, It’s What ‘Can You Do’…

Good post up at The Conservative Woman in regards British weakness, feckless leadership, etc. in the face of Iranian advances that will put London within reach of conventional- and nuclear-armed missiles quite soon unless something is done (see here). The question is raised there ‘what do we do’ in regards that, when the real question is ‘what can you do?’

Short-term, the answer is not much at all. You have a leadership class — of which Starmer is a figurehead, a meat-puppet — that hates Great Britain, the Empire, etc. and is determined to end it. The Chagos treaty is just the latest in efforts to divest the last vestiges of the empire, with Hong Kong being the zenith of same. They have gutted the military and done everything they can to make England to be easy pickings. If you are just starting to wonder why, you may be too late to the game.

I need to do a full answer to the post in question, especially as I notice what I regard as some rather gross inaccuracies. For example, in talking about the Strategic Defense Initiative (calling it ‘Star Wars’ reveals much about the author IMO) using nukes to ensure kills in boost stage. While I need to tread carefully, I think I can safely say that I don’t know of any serious effort to use nukes.

Nevermind that having them in orbit is a violation of treaty (ho hum, yet another treaty violation), but even worst is how many would be needed against widely dispersed targets. Also, nevermind that it is amazingly easy to mess up a rocket booster of any type, and the same can be said of many nuclear weapons themselves. I would suggest learning about “Brilliant Pebbles” (and for something older, look at Pournelle’s ‘Project Thor’ aka orbital crowbars) as well as the close-in defense systems (that we used to have) for protecting our land-based missiles.

For all that I have some issues (technical, strategic, otherwise) with some of the framing and background, there are a number of good questions and thoughts raised in the article. Check it out and sound off, there or here.

Wish I Had Said…

“Guano-psychotic” is such a wonderful term, and one I wish I had come up with. Go check out this one from Ian at The Lawdog.

Distilled Water Flows

I’m going to have a longer post here soon in the preparedness category, thanks to a wonderful person who arranged for a counter-top water distillation system to show up on my doorstep. I love it already, and there will be a good post on water filtration and water distillation as the counter-top unit was not the only thing to arrive on my doorstep. For now, to the wonderful person who sent the counter-top unit: thank you, Thank You, THANK YOU! My thanks also to those who shared knowledge, sparked some conversations on filtration and related, and for the other items that showed up at my doorstep: Thank You!

Oh, the distillation unit can also be used to create essential oils, hydrosols, and more. Let me also say some new items have shown up on my wish list. 🙂

More soon.

Couple Of Good Reads

Lots going on in the world, but not a lot of time for writing. Besides, why reinvent the wheel when others have already done some very good work?

First up, Francis Turner has a very good analysis of the recent Japanese elections. I’ve been keeping an eye on it, but he is very familiar with things and explains things beautifully. Go read.

Second, Behind The Black has a good post on what I will flat out call a very troubling development at NASA. I’m not happy to read this, and believe it a huge step backwards.

If I come across anything else, will add it here but the day is a busy one and I need to get back to my classwork/homework. More soon I hope.

Iran Thoughts

Iran has been a powder keg for a while now, and I’m truly surprised efforts to end the rule of the mad mullahs didn’t kick off a year or so ago. So I was unsurprised when things did start to blow up and an effort begun to bring back a return of the Shah. Sadly, I now think that may fail and do so because the President did not keep his word. This has implications far beyond Iran as well.

First, let me state yet again that I do not believe we should put boots on the ground. While it would be great to get rid of the mullahs, it is something that has to come from inside, and there are hundreds of thousands who have taken to the street — and tens of thousands who have died. Our support of that needs to be logistical and via eliminating certain infrastructure, preventing troop movements, and related.

Someone is already doing that, on a limited scale, and I have an idea who is doing it. That said, more is needed and we can do such via airpower. Some very good thoughts are over at The Lawdog Files here, here, and here. Think I linked to them before, but doing so again as they are good reads. But, again, and again, and again: freedom can’t be brought in or imposed from the outside via boots on the ground, it has to come from the inside.

Thing is, President Trump told the Iranian public that he had their back, to take to the streets and if the regime tried or started to kill them, he would strike. That was weeks ago and as I said before, the deaths appear now to be in the tens of thousands. Machine guns and more are being used; militia from Iraq have been brought in to help control certain regions; and, Arabic troops/mercs have also been brought in. The revolution is now in danger of failing, at least in my opinion.

Something to consider is this: at the start, when Trump first called for them to take to the streets, America was in a good position both to help and to have a very good relationship with the Shah and others in the new government. Now, we do not and will not enjoy such as the people are remembering that America’s word really isn’t worth much in the Middle East. As the blood flows thicker and deeper, the willingness to trust and work with the U.S. is dropping. If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.

Worse, right now the mullahs feel emboldened because Trump/the U.S. hasn’t kept it’s word. They see the desire to negotiate as weakness. If the revolution fails and all they see are games being played with drone tracks, they are going to take that as a go signal to speed up efforts to restore nuclear development and go nuclear, as well as to go all in on terrorism by proxy. The downsides are severe, and the damage to the reputation of both Trump and the U.S. can’t be overstated. It will likely end effective foreign policy for this administration.

I have suspicions as to what has been going on, and I truly hope that Qatar does not have its hooks into certain members of the administration. Sadly, there is a lot of damage done right now regardless of the source. A promise was made, a red line set, and nothing done when the mullahs gleefully crossed it. There is still time, but a lot of damage has been done and it will take more than words to undo it.

What is happening is an unforced error on the part of the administration. One that has serious implications for stability and peace in several parts of the world. If the mullahs fall, it changes the calculus on Russia/Ukraine, it cuts a number of nasty terrorist groups off from major funding and operational assistant (and remember some of them were operating out of Venezuela), and it ends one of the most serious nuclear threats out there. If they don’t fall, and we don’t act, all of that gets put on steroids and we will be lucky if it only redoubles.

Not words I thought I would be writing when this started, but words that need to be said. I think Trump is getting some very bad advice and I have questions about the intel he is getting on operations and the numbers of Iranians killed by the mullahs. It would have been far better if he had kept his mouth shut and not made a promise he wasn’t going to keep. There is still time to turn things around, but it is fast running out.

Cardiology Update/Celebration

Had my six month check-up with my cardiologist, and other than some well-earned comments in regards my having over-indulged in sweets and carbs over the holidays, things are going very well. So well, in fact, that 4.5 years after being hit by lightning, I now only have to see him once a year unless there are problems.

This is a huge milestone in my recovery, and the admonishments were far outweighed by the good comments on my blood work, the workouts I’m doing, and how I plan to proceed with the workouts. His only recommendation was not to do farmer’s carries as they could be very problematic for my shoulders and back. Otherwise, he was quite pleased with things.

It is interesting that about two years ago, when I first switched to him (and am so thankful I did so), the concern was that I would have to have more heart surgery. After my baptism, however, the scans showed that all the damage from the lightning had healed. Doesn’t mean other things can’t happen or I can’t mess up; but, to me it says a lot that things went from bad to fantastic after that significant event.

More to come.

Gifts Of Wandering Ice

Not sure how many of you make use of the Blogroll I have as a separate page. Doesn’t look like many from the visitor stats, but at least a few of you do. If so, you may have noticed a new comic added to the Art section.

Gifts of Wandering Ice was recommended to me a while back. I didn’t know anything about it, or the author, but was quickly caught up in the story line and clean artwork. In fact, I was intrigued enough a year or so ago to go back to the very beginning and read up to the then present day.

In many respects, the story is not something I would normally expect to enjoy. It is set in a green post-apocalyptic future where at least this group of surviving humans has turned into a matriarchal society. There is more, but the important thing was that between good story telling and clean, family friendly art, I’ve gotten hooked. I also think the author should have the chance to have her work presented to a wider audience, so this is my attempt to do that.

Oh, and if it comes across as something very different from your normal comics, the author isn’t American and is writing from a different cultural viewpoint. For Americans used to American comics, this can create a little dissonance, but to me it seems to add to the story.

Check it out, and if you like it, share it. If you don’t, don’t. Just something I’m enjoying so far and wanted to share.

Post updated to fix typos in two spots.

Artemis

I’m actually hoping the upcoming mission slips not just to March, but into April. Not a detailed post, but here are a few highlights.

First, Congress mandated out-of-date tech and other delights to keep certain companies and production lines open (and donations to politicians flowing). Old tech is not necessarily bad: I almost got to co-pilot a Ford Tri-Motor once (lost out to someone with a bit more seniority) and it was a fun and amazing flight. It works, but no one is trying to repurpose the Ford into a hypersonic aircraft, which is not a bad analogy for all the Shuttle-derived tech required by Congress for Artemis.

Second, there have been issues identified — and fixed in record time. Sorry, having worked at NASA as a contractor I’m not fully buying it. If I haven’t already done so, remind me to tell you about how a NASA safety fix that wasn’t tested ended the first tethered satellite system mission pretty much at the start. Short version is that I wouldn’t ride in that capsule. Your mileage may vary.

Third, the tech involved does not do well with cold weather launches. Challenger. That really should be a period dot thing, but…

Fourth, even if you fixed every issue above, Artemis is unsustainable. The price per launch is beyond ridiculous and is a good example why America would be much better off with NASA out of the launch business. Heck, out of the manned space flight business period. NASA needs to focus on it’s stated mission, which is advancing aerospace technology, not trying to do and control everything related to space (and they and certain political leadership seem to like to ignore the whole aviation side of the picture).

I am very concerned that if Artemis launches this month, that there are going to be significant issues potentially up to the loss of vehicle and crew. I hope I’m wrong, and would love to eat crow on this one. That said, there are echoes of Apollo 1 and Challenger for me, and that makes me very concerned.

UPDATE I: Since I wrote this, a fuel leak has pushed the launch into March. A fuel leak in the same area as the first mission. I suspect that April may be optimistic as fuel leaks have been an ongoing issue for three or so years. See this article for more info. More than ever I think Artemis and the decisions behind it by Congress are going to give us another space disaster. One that could easily have been avoided.