The Laughing Wolf

We are into the final two weeks of Lent, and I am beat. Not quite hitting the warm salt water gargle thing for my voice, but I am “eating” lime wedges with Tajin to help it. Have my second session with the voice coach today (feel free to hit the tip jar) and am looking forward to it. The number of services and such are growing, so may not be posting as much until after Pascha.

First up, the Supremes finally stepped up in regards some of the judicial overreach underway, sorta. Good news, the Admin can keep deporting illegal immigrant gang members. Sorta. If you look at it, they ruled very narrowly on procedural grounds, that the actions were filed in the wrong court. There is a bit in there about judicial review before deportation, but it is not spelled out other than that the deportees can and should get judicial review. It is at least a partial victory of the Admin, and it should kill a lot of the judge shopping now underway.

It should reign in a lot of the judicial overreach, but I doubt that it will as the judges currently involved have gone all-in with their actions. I fully expect them to continue. As others have pointed out, Judge Bombastic has left proper judicial far behind (long ago actually) and made clear this is personal for him. I fully expect this to continue with behavior far more fitting for the old Reichscourt than of American jurisprudence. Given that he has already ignored commentary from portions of the Supreme Court, don’t expect him to moderate at this point. Especially since there was no true rebuke from Roberts.

Nor is there likely to be such. Yes, I’ve been reading all the latest about Roberts and some of his unique relationships, and truth be told I suspect he is both corrupt and compromised. I also think it doesn’t matter.

Roberts is all in on the Judiciary expanding it’s power beyond the scope envisioned in the Constitution, and has fought/will fight/is fighting tooth and nail to hold onto such power. He is quite fine with using it against Trump and the expressed will of the People via election, as he is very much a part of the group that has benefited from all that has been going on. He will do all he can to keep it going on. While there are those who point out that all his decisions so far have been very proper in judicial terms, such ignores his pointed efforts to avoid any implied rebuke on his part to those judges attempting to assert primacy over the Executive.

Others appear to have made their opinions clear, but Roberts has tied himself in knots not to do so. Again, he is down with these actions and whatever else is in play, he is going to do all he can to not just keep things as they are, but to expand the power of the courts even further. Watch his wording in the things that can be publicly identified as his. Much less his highly unusual, and frankly IMO improper, insertions into the actions and considerations of the Legislative. Just wait until legislation really is introduced (spines needed in Congress, STAT) and see what he says and does then.

Oh, and notice Robert’s effective silence when leaders of Congress have attacked members of his Court. Well, at least the more conservative/originalist members of the Court. Speaks volumes, doesn’t it.

As for all the hoopla around tariffs and related, whoop. May it cause temporary pain? Yep. Do I have some concerns? Yep. Am I upset and worried? Nope.

One thing you have to give the man is that Trump is a negotiator. In fact, he’s done what appears to be a very good job in private enterprise, and he’s done what I think is an outstanding job as President. My attitude is wait-and-see and I hope this is yet another example of him doing something outre and forcing concessions and changes.

The latter is I suspect the key here. We need urgently to re-shore a lot of industry, from steel to pharmaceuticals. The way we have been doing things (from the 1950s in many respects) isn’t working. What has been done in the latter part of that time, with offshoring to our enemies (and the whole concept of doing so to make them our friends is morally and politically bankrupt), has been beyond stupid. In fact, criminal may well be a very apt word on more than one level. When your actions are indistinguishable from those that would be undertaken by an enemy…

And, yes, there is likely to be some pain along the way. No pain, no gain is a foreign concept to many. The idea of voluntary suffering for a better situation is unknown to large parts of the populace. I have to admit that during Lent I’ve wondered if a lot of the attacks on Christianity (particularly traditional Christianity) are not driven in part for that reason, given the focus on fasting and other “sacrifice” as part of religious life. At any rate, far too many think that change, particularly positive change, will come with no real effort or pain. A snap of the fingers, a twitch of the nose (a la Elizabeth Montgomery), and instantly and effortlessly the desired end state appears. If only.

Even I caught a bit of the effort by certain political operatives to crash the market. Having survived several much worse corrections, let me share a couple of things with you. First, if you are not near retirement, just wait, it will go back up. Second, if you are retired, it may hit for a bit, but again it will go back up. In fact, with the corrections in my life, it went back up and surpassed where it had been. Third, if you have some funds you can safely exploit, BUY. Again, it almost always goes not just up to where it was but (well) beyond. The last time something happened that dropped the market, I bought and if I had really gone all in I might not be broke right now.

From the looks of things yesterday, the U.S. market has already started to bounce back. While I am not a financial advisor and any thing I say in this column is purely speculative and not advisement (legal requirement/disclaimer), I will note that if you go opposite of Krugman and Kramer (sp?) you almost always come out very far ahead. Heck, if you can find out what Nancy P is buying or shorting, you should be able to get rich too.

And, before I forget, keep an eye on Russia and in particular the price of Russian crude. If it continues to drop, things will get very interesting for Vladimir and the Russians.

Also, I’m trying to get more data on a very anomalous seismic event in Iran. Actually, several things have happened that don’t really add up — unless one is doing either the precursor testing for or full-up nuclear testing. No hard data yet, but there may well be a reason both Israel and the U.S. are pushing hard on Iran nuclear issues. Pay attention. Repeat. Pay attention.

I would also suggest that it is most interesting who is coming out with warnings against taking any action. Pay attention there too, as a number of masks are dropping. The love of silver was not limited to one man in Biblical times. By their actions you will know them, and in knowing them you will know how much to credit anything they say or do.

There is more going on in the world, but that is enough for this morning. For those of Faith, may your Holy Week be Blessed, and your Bright Week filled with joy. Me, I’m thinking of hibernating the Monday after Pascha. Maybe even Tuesday if I can get away with it.

For all, be safe and be prepared. Remember, keep your friends and family close and your things where you can find them in the dark. Onwards.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Okay, I promised the other day to talk a bit about the threat/non-threat of Russia. My problem with a lot of the talk going on right now, particularly in both media and pundit/influencer talk has to do with an imprecision of language.

Far too many are simply saying that Russia is not a future threat to Eastern or Western Europe (or anyone else) without specifying what they mean. I want to posit some food for thought in response.

From the start of the invasion, I’ve held an awkward position. I’ve wanted Russia stopped, but have also held firm to the idea that we did not want and should not want escalation. Which is a bit of a contradiction, at least on the surface for those approaching this with a Western viewpoint.

Also as pointed out over a number of years, the roots to this go back literally more than a thousand years. The work of Kamil Galeev that I have linked to in many posts explore the historical, philosophical, and memetic sources of this. Fact is, no, Russians do not think like us, do not analyze within the same conceptual framework, and do not respond with the same cultural mores and patterns. They are a different culture, with a different history, and different mores and cultural norms. To expect them to respond as we would is the height of stupidity, and far too many Western (U.S. cough) politicians and bureaucrats are extremely stupid in this respect.

They, and far too many others who should (and do) know better dismiss Russkiy Mir as of no importance. Trust me, it is of great importance and it is taken seriously. Keep in mind that in some respects, Navalny was even more nationalistic and serious supporter of Russkiy Mir than Vladimir. Russia World is a real concept within Russian leadership and they did not spend months/years and money on developing it on a whim. It is a real and very large factor in all they do. To understand it is to understand much of their long-term plans and thinking.

In that regard, Russia is an ongoing threat to the world. Not just the Baltic. Not just Eastern Europe. The World.

It is why my stance on Ukraine was awkward to some. I tried to hammer home the point that Russia must be stopped, and the threat negated; but, we should not escalate to a full-scale war. I pointed out many times that if the usual politics and peace-at-any-price took place and Russian plans/ambitions not addressed, the next time (and there will be a next time) would be far worse. The fact that we now know the Biden Regency was up to their necks in a proxy war that they helped provoke while pretending otherwise really doesn’t change that fact.

Which is why I am watching the Trump efforts at peace rather carefully. If long-term plans and ambitions are not short circuited, any peace won’t last. I will note that short-circuited does not necessarily mean a confrontation over them with threats and prohibitions. It can and should mean finding ways to indirectly negate such. Trump has been a master at this in other areas, so I am semi-hopeful in this case. We must wait and see.

I still say we squandered some amazing opportunities to change the relationship with Russia back during the Clinton years, simply because no one of any status within that admin truly understood the Russians or even tried to understand them. The Obama administration simply continued that forward, and frankly W and his people were not much better.

So, unless Russkiy Mir is acknowledged and dealt with, yes, Russia will be a threat going forward.

Now, where they are not a threat currently is militarily. The great stockpiles are a rusting joke and Russia has had to turn to others to supply them with ammunition, drones, and more. The Russian Army is not a first world Army and while our own forces are not what they should be (and many European militaries are a joke), I don’t see Russia currently as being a credible threat to Europe in a conventional sense. Again, see previous discussion on this topic.

In terms of nuclear threat, I remain in the camp of twenty percent. If twenty percent of the nuclear systems of either side work, I would be surprised. Don’t want to find out for sure, but…

Now, if given a chance to clean things up, rearm, train, etc. that can change. It can, in fact, change rather rapidly (look at what Pete is doing here). It can also change because far too many Western companies are supplying Russia with chips, machines, and more to do just that — and have been since the war started. Again, we’ve discussed this before in past posts.

So, short-term military threat: no. Long-term threat: yes. Is Vladimir/Russia going to play nice now given alternatives and ambitions: no. Is anyone expecting Vladimir/Russia to roll over and play nice just because stupid: yes.

Trump is used to working out deals that leave people satisfied. That allow them to build and grow. He’s used that fairly well in various efforts and treaties. If anyone can find a way to get the parties to a table, and deal not just with the short-term, but the long-term issues (including cultural differences) as well, it’s him. It won’t be easy, but I’m going to wait and see what happens.

Meantime, keep in mind what I’ve said above as you read the pundits, influences, and grifters. Also keep in mind that some of the imprecision of language is deliberate on their part. Understand the reality of threat/non-threat and what is going on right now. Ware those who make their money off the current situation, and pay attention to what is not being discussed. Noting the latter will oft tell you far more than what is being said. Just a thought to share.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.