Politics – Page 2 – The Laughing Wolf

Trumping Iran

A very good read, as usual. I will join the chorus of those pointing out we have no vested interest in opening the Straights of Hormuz as our oil and such doesn’t flow through it. Been funny watching certain people and governments tumble to the fact we have no need and no desire to cover them this time. If they won’t step up, we will do what we need to for our purposes, but I doubt we will do any more than that. More thoughts on that after the weekend I hope. Have a Blessed weekend and stay safe.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Choke Points

There is a lot going on in the world right now, and I find it interesting how many people don’t get some of the layers involved. For all that Venezuela and Iran (and other actions) had a specific geographical focus, what lay behind each is multi-layered and aimed at hitting as many targets with one action as possible.

For example, Venezuela also hurt China on several fronts, and even Iran on more than one front. Cuba is also being taken out by the action(s), and has apparently event talked with the administration about change.

Which makes this thread by John Konrad over on X very interesting food for thought. Many of the actions by Trump and the administration that people have not understood, or in the case of certain politicians and pundits have deliberately pretended not to understand, all come together in interesting ways. I will also note that a hallmark of this administration is hitting as many targets with one action as possible. This is not an accident or happenstance, but very deliberate.

More to come, but check out John’s thread and chew on things a bit. More to come.

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Institutional Capture And Discourse

Over on X, there has been quite a tempest over the doxxing of a writer who goes by the nom-de-plume of Cynical Publius. He writes under that name at American Greatness and also holds forth on X. He uses a pseudonym because his (now former) job and general safety required it. Short version is he is a former military officer who has seen the elephant and makes suggestions based on reality as opposed to what is being passed around DC.

Recently, he joined Pete in suggesting that the War Colleges need some review and revamping (gasp! The Cad!). This led to some interesting exchanges with Radio Free Tom, who until recently was a part of that system (and in my opinion proof positive that said system needs major and serious reform starting with the removal of all the over-credentialed idiots like Tom who are a serious part of why we haven’t won a war in decades). However, in this case, it led to a rather nasty bit of politics in which Brad Duplessis, Ryan Evans, and War on The Rocks (no, no links to them, a single white feather to every individual associated with WOTR would be far more appropriate) doxxed Cynical Publius. I find it fascinating that they seem genuinely surprised there was blowback.

And there has been some substantial blowback, including a rather detailed examination of how WOTR has been captured by the swamp, with (one assumes) the willing help of Ryan Evans. For those interested, start here with Data Republican’s detailed exam with receipts; then read this by John Konrad on X (and then read some of his other articles on the situation); and, then, while it is not directly related (then again…) this article on pointing out mistakes and why the system can’t handle honest mistake fixing. Yes, I do think it applies to the doxxing and the surprise at the blowback. While I’m thinking about it, I commend to one and all Matthew Pierce’s work on persuasibility. I doubt Brad and Ryan will appreciate it, as I strongly suspect that their thoughts on CP and why he deserved harm (doxxing is ALWAYS intended to inflict harm) is a religious issue for them per the Doctrine of Persuasibility. It is a matter of faith that they are right and proper and everyone else is wrong, and no mere facts will alter that belief.

WOTR started as something good and needed; but, it has sunk into the mire and bears no resemblance to its former glory. It went rather rapidly from an outside and fresh perspective admired and respected by the troops, to being an arm of the establishment in amazingly rapid time. It is no longer worth time and I’ve even started unfollowing people on X who follow it for any reason. It, and all those behind it, need to shunned, shamed, and deprived of engagement (and the funds that come from such). The swamp will look after its own, so I suspect the founders and even any employees will find employment elsewhere at need.

Long-time readers may know, but back under Reagan I was a small part of a very large “Kitchen Cabinet” that advised him on any number of subjects. My area involved the Soviet Union and in particular their space and related military efforts — an area where he rightly had concerns about the intel and analysis coming from official sources. I do think Reagan had the largest Kitchen Cabinet of any modern President, though I do wonder if Trump might have something similar. I will simply warn them that low profile, and pseudonyms and such, are wise, as official DC does take note.

It was amazing how fast doors slammed shut after Reagan left office, and even where lines of communications stayed open they were also dark. Probably didn’t help that someone I worked with told a sitting President to “Go Bleep Yourself” Thing is, I’ve met a number of DC power players and a lot of wanna-be power players. Most of them were not worth a bucket of warm spit and have morals to make an alley cat seem virtuous and gentle. I’ve actually been thankful more than once that I did not get swept up in that game, as I’ve kept at least a small bit of virtue, honor, and integrity as a result. Maybe not much, but at least some.

It is easy to lose yourself in DC. The Swamp, The Blob, whatever you want to call it is ravenous and dedicated entirely to protecting itself and not the Republic. It can happen amazingly quickly. Looking at what’s happened here makes me glad that very few know who I am or what I’ve done. It also further reinforces that the new path I’m on is the right one for me. I’d far rather write about history and faith than politics, and have no need to secure my computer against intrusion (and interesting additions) quite as much.

As for Mr. Cynical Publius, I don’t really know him save through his work. The doxxing was a malicious and vicious act without honor or integrity in my book. I will say that if he gets this way, I’m glad to share coffee (or something stronger) with him (or Infantry Dort for that matter) and chat a bit. I will say that if Brad or Ryan were to show up, I would be most happy to discuss the concept of repentance and such with them.

Now, it is time to get back to “work” and the seminary class. Trying to get ahead a bit before going on the pilgrimage. So, more soon. Hopefully something fun that regular readers will enjoy. We will see, as sadly this year of 2026 seems determined to be interesting.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Overton, Windows, Lists

X is a fun thing to watch some days. Not read, watch. There are patterns in the data flow, and it is an odd combination of annoying and amusing to watch when the word — and payments for same — goes out. And, yes, it is clear that quite a few of the influencer-types are bought and paid for.

Now, I’m not one of them. Not enough followers and such to get the status that gets the sweet, sweet engagement bucks, much less the under-the-table payments that go to those of easily negotiable virtue. While one is tempted to call them a five-letter name (six if you go plural) for participants in the second-oldest profession (politics truly is the oldest), such would be a serious slander of those (by comparison) relatively honest and reliable providers of various services involving passions of the flesh. Such people are by comparison honorable and possessed of an integrity far beyond the grifter/groyper/influencer class. Me, I’d rather be poor and dependent upon your kindness and generosity than to sell myself in such a way. Besides, even though it would be in service to the oldest profession, I look horrible in a miniskirt and crop top.

But, there are apparently plenty willing to do so. It is indeed fun some days to see how many left and allegedly-far-right are posting almost identical posts. Sometimes it is literally the same post, though one could not be faulted for suspecting most of those accounts are bots. What’s fun though is to see something strikingly similar in wording in the ‘big-name’ accounts left and allegedly far-right.

It’s happened twice recently in terms of the war with Iran. The sinking of the Iranian frigate was the first such incident, with the progressive left and the allegedly-right-wing decrying in very similar terms (and even wording) claiming that it was a violation of the rules of war. That is, of course, complete and utter hooey. But, the truth rarely matters (and is even a hindrance) when a particular narrative is being pushed by interesting people. Go see the work by Data Republican and others for detailed information on the people and funding behind it. It is a large amount of money, and what is scary is how much of it appears to be coming from defrauding the U.S. taxpayer.

The most recent version is “Lobstergate” wherein Pete Hegseth was once again targeted by the progressive left and the allegedly-right-wing group of grifters, groypers, and ‘influencers.’ Funny thing is, the attacks on Pete have convinced me of two things: he is indeed the right man for the job, and he scares the everliving out of some interesting and powerful people.

In the latest attempt to get him removed, the campaign went after the fact that the DoW (though it was phrased as if Pete himself had done the purchasing) bought lobster, crab, and steak in large and expensive amounts. Extravagant amounts with careful implication that it was for him and other senior officials. Note the implied, and how it was (and is) utilized in the campaign of lies.

Fact is, it is a long-standing tradition (here’s a hint, it happened under Clinton and Obama and was fine then) to give deployed troops and others a good ‘surf-and-turf’ meal once a week. It is also a tradition to give such a meal to those about to go into harms way. I’ve very much appreciated those putting up photos showing what civilians think is being served versus what the military actually provides (not even close to the same).

Have to admit, the first time I hit a military steak that had to be served well-done (food safety don’t you know) it was a bit of a shock. Under the circumstances, however, it was delicious even with fat and gristle. Since I can’t be charged, when I was with Cooking with the Troops I refused to cook the steaks we did well-done, and was grateful an Army cook backed me up in my lie about residual cooking one time. Story for another day.

What is most interesting about ‘Lobstergate” is the number of people who know very good and well about the tradition and are lying anyway, including some who served. Then again, I was not surprised one of them was a former Congresscritter who got his one term via running as a veteran (and is a huge Blue Falcon). The narrative is getting pushback online, but not nearly enough on broadcast outlets with CNN once again pushing a lie.

Nor is that CNNs only bit of propaganda this week. Look at their framing of the terrorist attack in NYC. Two jihadis throw explosive devices at people who are ‘far right’ according to CNN and the Associated Propaganda (AP)(love that name, stealing it) news, and almost all media frames it as an attack by the people that the terrorists attempted to murder on NYCs new mayor. CNN was roasted for one of the worst, ham-handed, attempts at such, and is still getting justifiably dragged over it.

Interesting thing is, all these efforts are being done for multiple reasons including shifting the Overton Windows in regards public perception. In the case of the sinking, the attempted shift is to change the laws and perceptions of war such that we can’t sink our enemies. In the case of ‘Lobstergate’ is yet another effort to shift the window to limit the scope and power of the SecWar in the future, even as it attempts to smear Pete as incompetent. In the third case, it is to shift the window towards attacks in the U.S. being both legitimate and the result of right-wing-extremism. While thinking about this, note that every politician or group outside of the far-left progressives is now identified as ‘right-wing’ or more likely ‘extreme-right-wing’ by corporate media such as AP, Reuters, CNN, etc.

Over on X, John Konrad has a very good post up on what is going on and the need to shift the window(s) back to the right. There is some very good food for thought in there, and worth the read to get to.

While it is clear that Journ-O-List ver. XX? is in play, it is also clear that a lot of money is being spent to push not just these narratives to the public, but the Overton Windows associated with them as far to the left as possible. All the more reason I don’t trust corporate media on any reporting, and a reminder of why I want to see the Save Act passed even if it means gutting Congressional alleged-leadership. I also want to see a speaking filibuster back and the end of the illegal, un-Constitutional, and cowardly blue slip practice. Probably a pipe dream, but one can hope.

Oh, and for the record, I think overall the Air Force has the best chow; Navy can come in a close second (depends on the mess); and, the Army is third. I will also say that when I was doing embeds in Iraq, I loved when the people working the chow halls (DFAC, whatever) were allowed to do their native dishes as a special event/treat. Given how many were Malay, Indonesian, etc. you got some amazingly good food though some could take the top of your head off with the heat. Beat the heck out of some of the regular, okay-at-best, chow.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Surprise, Response

The previous post reminded me of one I’ve needed to do for a while. Some of the posts I do are to share knowledge and experience, some to share humor or joy, and some to provoke some thought. Especially if I’m not sure that things are being done and I want to push things while I am here to push them. On the latter, my concerns about the ability of humans to reproduce in space and microgravity are a good example, as I want to be sure it is something being looked at as we urgently need permanent settlements off this glorious mudball ASAP.

Right now, I want to talk a bit about command and control in the face of surprise. It is something I really hope is being looked at by Pete and company as they are taking care of a lot of things; and by the administration from a higher level. In particular, I want to look at nuclear command and control in the current environment.

A lot of our current system traces back to the pre-SAC days when Nightwatch was in Maryland and it was estimated we could have hours of notice. Even as that shrunk down, we’ve kept a lot of the basic premises past what I consider the best-buy date. As a result, I think we really, really, need to look at things and try to come up with something new.

Without going into too much detail (much less things that should not be talked about openly) our current system presumes something on the order of 30-minutes to an hour of warning of a surprise attack on the U.S. SecWar is the second man to the President for all intents and purposes, and is either with POTUS or in touch with him. POTUS is briefed on what is going on, confidence in the intel, etc. and uses the current iteration of the Single (Strategic) Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) to order a response to the situation.

As we’ve discussed on here before in the “shall we play the game” category, the response is boiled down to a short (less than 200 characters) message that is then sent to the National Military Communications Center (NMCC) at the Pentagon who then re-codes it after confirmation, and sends it out to SAC (new version) and some other interested parties such as the Navy TACOMO planes. SAC then re-codes the order (after confirmation) and sends it out to it’s audience.

All well and good, and the two-man rule applies throughout. Well, all well and good if there is time. Are there alternatives if POTUS isn’t available or such? I’m told yes, though I have no details. Nor do I want them.

The thirty-minute window was predicated on detecting Soviet missiles being launched. Flight time from there to here is roughly thirty minutes. If we saw them fueling (Soviets/Russians use a lot of liquid-fueled ICBMs), longer period for response. That was sufficient: thirty or forty years ago.

Even twenty years ago, depressed trajectory shots from subs not too far off the coast cut that time from detection to impact to about fifteen minutes. The assurances the subs couldn’t get that close, and would be detected if they did, were deafening, though reminding me a bit of toddlers drumming their feet and yelling while having their fingers in their ears.

Today, we have massive container ships plying the waters of our country. If I can figure how to put one or more land-attack cruise missiles into a container for launch, I guarantee you others have as well. When you look at more modern drones, boy howdy are you talking the ability to get things in the air and to target with little or no detection. Iran has the capability (or did) and China has been openly experimenting with it. For all the open, think iceberg and know others have as well, a lot of others.

Thing is, if you launch like that from say a bay (and major trade route) near a capital city, you are potentially talking as little as five minutes from launch to impact. By the time the launch alert (if launch is even detected by anyone other than direct observers) gets to the right people in the military, you already have impact.

One also needs to factor in surface attack. Our borders were incredibly porous for way too long, and it is suspected that a lot more than people and drugs could have made it through. Small delivery van making the rounds in DC, passing in front of the White House, Congress, Pentagon…

I really, really do hope someone is looking at this, and looking to update the system. What we have now was good enough maybe ten years ago. Now, however… Think we need to rethink a number of things including designated survivors. I hope the world is about to get a lot more peaceful; but, you never plan for best case/most optimistic case. I will even go so far as to say we need some new designated survival centers as Camp David, Mount Weather, etc. are too well known.

Just a thought.

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Dear Bill

Not sure if you will get this letter, but if it can get through to Lance Corporal Bill J. Stelpflug, USMC, I would appreciate it. I don’t have his forwarding address, the last address I have for him was at the Marine Barracks in Beirut, and I would like him to know a few things that have been going on.

First, an apology. I used to write you every year on the anniversary, but many of those notes were lost in various attacks on hosting providers by the very people who attacked the barracks. It’s my bad for not staying on top of things, and I do apologize for it.

I heard from your mother many years back, right when I first began writing to you. I wanted to keep your memory alive, in a time where so many seemed determined to forget and/or move on. She was so happy to see me write to you, and wrote to me and we talked a bit.

Your sister was happily married and had started a family. You’ll be glad to know we never did date, though I was smitten with her. I never did share those pictures I took of her in my improvised studio with her or anyone, as I screwed them up. I was still learning then, and it was a ‘learning experience’ of which I was ashamed. I might could rescue the shots these days in digital, and might try if I could give them to her. I was so happy to learn she was happy and thriving, though she and your brothers (and your parents) missed you terribly.

I enjoyed chatting with your mom, and catching up. It was a chance to remember simpler times, joyful and beautiful times. She was (is, I hope) a nice and dear lady.

My Dad was the Marine, and I was something else; but, what happened at the Barracks hit hard for us both. Not sure it was much, or did much good, but never missed a chance to try to poke the mad mullahs in the eye (or hit lower) if I got the chance. Nor did I miss a chance to recommend that others do so officially and unofficially.

Today, the tab the mullahs have been running got called. The original ayatollah has long since gone to whatever awaits him. His successor, who in many ways was even more evil, has paid the tab for all that was done. In fact, quite a few of the leadership seems to have departed with him. Pity, no? We can but hope that the demonic despots fall, and that Iranians regain their freedom. It is up to them now.

Not going to bore you with a bunch of drivel. Know I’m glad you and your brothers didn’t ‘have a word with me’ when I was interested in your sister, who deserved and found someone much, much better. Wish you hadn’t transferred to post eternal, and were still here with your family and friends. I pray the Lord has enfolded you in his light and comfort, that you rest with the saints where the light of his countenance visits you, and that you be judged to join those at his right hand.

Iran Underway

Not a surprise. The embassy evacuations yesterday, that had to be done by the evening local time, were a sign. It may be hours or even a day or two before a lot of reports can be confirmed, but there are some things that are clear even now.

First, clearly a decapitation/regime change strike. The U.S. seems to be focused on infrastructure and some logistics, while Israel is taking out the rest. No surprise, and a good use of resources as (and I’ve noted this before) Israel has an almost frightening degree of penetration within Iran. When you can plant bombs in light fixtures months or longer in advance, set up robotic machine gun arrays, and more, you do indeed own your target.

That seems to be getting put to very good use in this attack. One of the firmer rumors out there is that the attack commenced once the senior leadership of the mad mullah regime were gathered together for a meeting. Much like the start of the 12-day war. Except, this time, it wasn’t military and nuclear leadership, it was the full top leadership including the ayatollah his own self. Seems that once that was confirmed, boomity.

Despite that, I’m taking reports of various eliminations with a grain of salt simply because one should. An operational rule for such things is never accept the initial reports, and even with some confirmation plan and continue as if the strike failed. If nothing else, you take out the secondaries and even tertiaries along with leadership that could fill any vacuum. Fact is, pretty much the entire membership of the IRGC will have to be taken out for any regime change to succeed. For those on X and wanting to keep up with the latest, here is a link to my Intel list.

I am wondering if, once again, Israel has blown open the doors to Evin prison. I certainly hope so. Both the U.S. and Israel have sent the message to the Iranian people that it is up to them. The Pahlavi team has as well. Video coming out of Iran has shown people literally dancing in the street in celebration. All good signs, but I also hope to see some concrete actions starting soon once the initial strikes are over. That will tell the tale.

It should also be noted that Iran has probably sealed its fate no matter what. By attacking all its neighbors with a strike, it turned neutrals and potential neutrals into enemies. Worst miscalculation: Saudi Arabia. The attack on them broke cultural and other norms, and has brought the Saudis into a full state of war against Iran. If things don’t move fast enough inside Iran, don’t be surprised if the neighbors don’t act. Side thought, this is also going to do more to strengthen the Abraham Accords than almost anything else could have done.

There is also a lot of truth to the discussions that October 7th was the worst military blunder in history. Most are putting the blame on Hamass, but the operation was approved and encouraged by Iran. It was a gamble, and if Hezballess had joined in as apparently planned, it could have put Israel on ropes. Or worse even. Instead, for a day of horrific rape and murder, Hamass, Hezballess, and other Iranian proxies are a shadow of their former selves militarily (sadly, politically still viable thanks to enablers and supporters among the progressives in the West). Now, the head of the serpent may well have been cut off. If Iran does get freedom, expect to see a number of open and covert proxies develop problems.

Along that line, if you have not read Kurt Schlichter’s book The Attack do so quickly. Today is not a day for sandstone, but a time to go red and put your head on a swivel. Of the millions who came over the border under Biden (and even before), a number of IRGC members or operatives are believed to have been among them. They might not be happy at regime change, and they may have received orders (or had standing orders) in that regard. Be prepared.

Not going to say much, but while I suspect some of that threat has been neutralized, I wouldn’t bet on it. I’ve seen it apparently happen once before, many years ago, but one should never count on a repeat. Be prepared.

More soon. I truly hope the people of Iran take this opportunity to reclaim their country. I hope they make good choices and decisions, and embrace freedom. The world will be much better off if they do so. That said, it is up to them. This is their moment, pray they rise up to it.

Meantime, keep your eye on Pakistan-Afghanistan. This in many ways has the potential to be more serious and have even larger consequences on the world than Iran. Right now, about every jihadist group in the world is siding with the Taliban. This includes certain families and groups such as the Haqqani. On the positive side, Pakistan has the chance to do the world a huge favor if it eliminates those groups/networks/etc. They have already taken out a Taliban general it seems.

The downside to this conflict is the tribal nature of the region. If enough tribes/families turn, there is a potential for Pakistan to either fall, or fall into internal turmoil that is not good in a nuclear nation. The last thing anyone should want is nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of the jihadis.

It is not a simple situation with simplistic solutions or ideals. Approaching it as simplistic is a potential invitation to disaster. If anyone tells you it is simplistic and X must be done, especially a politician, shun them and their proposal. It is easy to say ‘we should support Pakistan’ but you also need to recognize that tribal loyalties matter more — even within the Pakistani government — than most in the West can grasp. Personally, I hope Pakistan ends up eliminating a number of threats to the West and the world. However, my support is selective as I don’t want to see certain factions (tribes) gain sway on the ground or in the government. For all that Iran can still hurt us, having nukes in the wrong hands could be much, much worse.

Right now, all we can do is wait and watch. I expect the mad mullahs and their ilk to try their best to take everyone down with them. Keep in mind, they want such as a means to get the hidden imam to return. Also, they are just that type of people and they will do everything they can to get as many civilians and others killed. They are also going to double down on lies and more, and are likely to try to get as many proxies or remote teams to take action as possible.

Which means the next few weeks are going to be a time to be on watch and be prepared. It is always good to use and exercise your rights, but the next few weeks will be a crystal clear time to do so. Be prepared to walk fast at need, and to maintain situational awareness. Be Prepared.

One more thing: you are going to hear a lot of politicians and other supporters of the Iranian government screaming about the attack being illegal. It’s not. The courts have ruled on this even. Generally, the President can act unilaterally though he should brief Congress within 48 hours, and Congress has to approve if action goes for more than 60 days. Please don’t fall for the lies.

More later perhaps. Still recovering from yesterday morning, so likely taking as much of the day off as possible.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Special Relationship Should

Be considered dead. In some of my previous posts regarding England and Europe (start with the latest and follow the links) I’ve suggested caution and the need to rethink things. Yesterday’s news that Starmer has refused use of bases in the UK and Diego Garcia for any attack on Iran really brings the need for a formal re-evaluation.

After thinking on it overnight I’m not convinced it is dead and beyond resuscitation; but, prudence demands that we treat it as such and start developing plans, policies, and procedures for operations without the special relationship. From intelligence sharing to basing, rethink everything.

Sure, Labor can lose but are any of the other classic parties any better? I’m also of the opinion that Nigel and Reform are not serious, and possibly even a Trojan horse given some recent revelations. Lowe and Restore, if they survive literally and figuratively, might be the change that could save the U.K. That said, every other party and a huge part of the bureaucracy (including intel and law enforcement) are going to be gunning for them, possibly even literally. If they are taken off the board, I would put my money on the U.K. becoming a caliphate within the next ten years. So, I’m rooting for Rupert for now.

Meantime, we need to consider the U.K. lost even as the politicians pay lip service and act as if all is okay. That means we need, now, to be cutting back on what we share and how; what we accept, how, and why (keep in mind Brit Intel was a huge part of the Russia scam that crippled Trump 1.0); and, as I said before, how to secure the nukes when the fall comes.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s all we can do, and it is always good advice.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Only Surprise Is…

Yes, this is from Politico (Europe), a source I don’t normally trust, but it was linked by Stephen Green at Instapundit, and you do want to read it. My only surprise at reading that Poland and other countries are looking at becoming nuclear powers is that the discussions were this open.

One nice thing about sitting and listening is that you sometimes realize that there are conversations going on in the background, very quietly, very privately. At least at first. Sometimes questions get asked, or comments made, that clearly are testing the waters as to what the recipient, or the recipient’s government, might think on a related topic. It is an old dance, but it does have a purpose.

For what it is worth, I suspect similar conversations to those that have been happening in Poland are happening elsewhere in the region. More than just a couple of former countries controlled by Moscow have no desire to end up in that position again with either Russia or any other government. The Eastern European countries are not only looking at Russkiy Mir to their east, but are also having to look West at the increasingly totalitarian EU. To the East, it also hasn’t helped that in addition to pushing for a new Russian empire (Russkiy Mir, of which Ukraine was to be the start, wrote about it at the time) that Vladimir has not been just rattling the nuclear sabre, but waving it around like a drunk. To the West, the EU overturning the results of the election in Romania because they didn’t like the results has not gone over well in a number of capitals (and not just in Europe). The increasing attempts to bring Poland, Hungary, and others to heel over immigration adds to those concerns.

They also are influenced by what happened in Ukraine years back, when Ukraine gave up all the Soviet nukes on it’s territory in exchange for being offered protection by Russia, the U.S., and the UK (Budapest memorandum, not a formal treaty). Non-proliferation, peace in our time! It is worth remembering that sometimes (every time) even with real treaties, political promises by any nation are written with a stick on flowing waters.

Now, add to it that nuclear non-proliferation has been rather openly dying for a few decades now. In addition to the open members, new and old, to the nuclear club I suspect rather strongly that more than one country not openly a member has functional nuclear weapons. I also suspect that if the mad mullahs are not taken out of power, immediately, that Iran will soon be a member of the club as well.

For all that I really would love to live in a world without nuclear weapons, reality is that I/we do and it behooves us to plan and act accordingly. As it was when it was primarily between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, peace or oblivion resides in the hands of the least stable leader. I would love to be wrong, but I’ve long suspected that it is a ‘when’ and not an ‘if’ a nuclear weapon will be used in anger again.

Now, add in that I suspect Iran is not the only country working hard to become a member of the nuclear club. You don’t have to go through the Manhattan Project to get to be a member, and you don’t have to be as unsubtle as Iran in creating a viable nuclear weapons program.

The fact that Poland has stepped out in the open like this is interesting, and a bit amusing. If you go back and read this post and the linked posts, I got called some names for suggesting that Poland be made a nuclear power and be the northern anchor for a new, non-military, ‘nato’ (lower case deliberate) that can stand as a bulwark against anything from the East as well as against a Muslim/Islamist West. While I think there is still a chance to prevent an effective European Caliphate (England is starting to wake up, but…), I also still very much think we need a Christian bulwark in the East if Western Civilization is to survive.

I also think some open and honest conversations on what is likely to happen when nuclear non-proliferation efforts are fully dead. I loathe Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) as a doctrine; but, we do need to devise some doctrines for handling obvious situations in a world where there are few bars to becoming a member of the nuclear club. This needs to happen at the staff levels so that when higher finally realizes there is a problem, there are already some well-thought options (some maybe even tested) available to them.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

No, It’s What ‘Can You Do’…

Good post up at The Conservative Woman in regards British weakness, feckless leadership, etc. in the face of Iranian advances that will put London within reach of conventional- and nuclear-armed missiles quite soon unless something is done (see here). The question is raised there ‘what do we do’ in regards that, when the real question is ‘what can you do?’

Short-term, the answer is not much at all. You have a leadership class — of which Starmer is a figurehead, a meat-puppet — that hates Great Britain, the Empire, etc. and is determined to end it. The Chagos treaty is just the latest in efforts to divest the last vestiges of the empire, with Hong Kong being the zenith of same. They have gutted the military and done everything they can to make England to be easy pickings. If you are just starting to wonder why, you may be too late to the game.

I need to do a full answer to the post in question, especially as I notice what I regard as some rather gross inaccuracies. For example, in talking about the Strategic Defense Initiative (calling it ‘Star Wars’ reveals much about the author IMO) using nukes to ensure kills in boost stage. While I need to tread carefully, I think I can safely say that I don’t know of any serious effort to use nukes.

Nevermind that having them in orbit is a violation of treaty (ho hum, yet another treaty violation), but even worst is how many would be needed against widely dispersed targets. Also, nevermind that it is amazingly easy to mess up a rocket booster of any type, and the same can be said of many nuclear weapons themselves. I would suggest learning about “Brilliant Pebbles” (and for something older, look at Pournelle’s ‘Project Thor’ aka orbital crowbars) as well as the close-in defense systems (that we used to have) for protecting our land-based missiles.

For all that I have some issues (technical, strategic, otherwise) with some of the framing and background, there are a number of good questions and thoughts raised in the article. Check it out and sound off, there or here.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.