Yes, this is from Politico (Europe), a source I don’t normally trust, but it was linked by Stephen Green at Instapundit, and you do want to read it. My only surprise at reading that Poland and other countries are looking at becoming nuclear powers is that the discussions were this open.
One nice thing about sitting and listening is that you sometimes realize that there are conversations going on in the background, very quietly, very privately. At least at first. Sometimes questions get asked, or comments made, that clearly are testing the waters as to what the recipient, or the recipient’s government, might think on a related topic. It is an old dance, but it does have a purpose.
For what it is worth, I suspect similar conversations to those that have been happening in Poland are happening elsewhere in the region. More than just a couple of former countries controlled by Moscow have no desire to end up in that position again with either Russia or any other government. The Eastern European countries are not only looking at Russkiy Mir to their east, but are also having to look West at the increasingly totalitarian EU. To the East, it also hasn’t helped that in addition to pushing for a new Russian empire (Russkiy Mir, of which Ukraine was to be the start, wrote about it at the time) that Vladimir has not been just rattling the nuclear sabre, but waving it around like a drunk. To the West, the EU overturning the results of the election in Romania because they didn’t like the results has not gone over well in a number of capitals (and not just in Europe). The increasing attempts to bring Poland, Hungary, and others to heel over immigration adds to those concerns.
They also are influenced by what happened in Ukraine years back, when Ukraine gave up all the Soviet nukes on it’s territory in exchange for being offered protection by Russia, the U.S., and the UK (Budapest memorandum, not a formal treaty). Non-proliferation, peace in our time! It is worth remembering that sometimes (every time) even with real treaties, political promises by any nation are written with a stick on flowing waters.
Now, add to it that nuclear non-proliferation has been rather openly dying for a few decades now. In addition to the open members, new and old, to the nuclear club I suspect rather strongly that more than one country not openly a member has functional nuclear weapons. I also suspect that if the mad mullahs are not taken out of power, immediately, that Iran will soon be a member of the club as well.
For all that I really would love to live in a world without nuclear weapons, reality is that I/we do and it behooves us to plan and act accordingly. As it was when it was primarily between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, peace or oblivion resides in the hands of the least stable leader. I would love to be wrong, but I’ve long suspected that it is a ‘when’ and not an ‘if’ a nuclear weapon will be used in anger again.
Now, add in that I suspect Iran is not the only country working hard to become a member of the nuclear club. You don’t have to go through the Manhattan Project to get to be a member, and you don’t have to be as unsubtle as Iran in creating a viable nuclear weapons program.
The fact that Poland has stepped out in the open like this is interesting, and a bit amusing. If you go back and read this post and the linked posts, I got called some names for suggesting that Poland be made a nuclear power and be the northern anchor for a new, non-military, ‘nato’ (lower case deliberate) that can stand as a bulwark against anything from the East as well as against a Muslim/Islamist West. While I think there is still a chance to prevent an effective European Caliphate (England is starting to wake up, but…), I also still very much think we need a Christian bulwark in the East if Western Civilization is to survive.
I also think some open and honest conversations on what is likely to happen when nuclear non-proliferation efforts are fully dead. I loathe Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) as a doctrine; but, we do need to devise some doctrines for handling obvious situations in a world where there are few bars to becoming a member of the nuclear club. This needs to happen at the staff levels so that when higher finally realizes there is a problem, there are already some well-thought options (some maybe even tested) available to them.
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I surmise there is missing context in the Politico article. My guess is Nawrocki is opening the window for pursuit of a more robust role in NATO’s nuclear mission. There’s a protocol for that, and it complies with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. To to your point on MAD; while it may be a loathsome strategy, I must point out that since the 1945 advent of nukes, there has not been an existential conflict between the great powers. Correlation may not be causation, but it can’t be ignored either.
Poland is anti-Russian but it is also anti-American at least under the current government. The Foreign Minister is married to Anne Applebaum who has the world’s worst case of TDS. That said, non-proliferation has been a dead man walking for decades now and it makes little sense to keep pushing it. Geography is a problem though. Europe is much more vulnerable to nukes than is Russia or the US. It would take a giant exchange of which only Russia or the US is capable of to destroy either of those countries. Not so Europe. EMP may change that but Russia is the least threatened by that.
Anyone who watched the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 must have wondered if that could have happened if Ukraine had not given up its nukes. I suspect that would have rather hastened the reassertion of Russian dominance, while Ukraine was still controlled by former soviet apparatchiks and Russian puppets. As it was Russia only got active against Ukraine when their last Puppet government fell, after ten years of effort by the Ukrainian equivalent of our Tea Party movement.
Any neighbors like Poland watching those events must have wondered whether they would be next. Since any guarantees by the US, NATO, or other western powers have proven to be unreliable and at best politically vulnerable, I expect those questions have been raised in every country that has a modern industrial base.