There are two posts I should be working on today. The first would deal with replacing NATO and nuclear trip wires, which frankly is rather tiresome and even somewhat depressing at this point given how much I’ve had to write on the nuclear topic these last three years. The second is to build on this post advocating an X-Prize for asteroid protection and have some fun.
So, for those and other reasons, I’m going to sit back with a nice glass of old vine zinfandel, and play among the stars and hopefully take you with me. I’ve got some ideas that even now have some exploring them, but I want to throw this out there to see if some of the other ideas find a place where they can take root.
Let me start by saying Elon is very correct in focusing on Mars as a staging ground for taking humanity to the stars. For all that it is at the bottom of a gravity well, it is a well far shallower than Earth. It also offers a variety of opportunities for habitation and more importantly self-sufficient habitation (though I’m going to make a suggestion to improve that here soon).
As I’ve noted a time or two before, Earth is indeed the cradle of humanity — but crib death is still a thing. Right now, we are facing several cusps if you will. Argentina has been turned around and, barring misfortune, saved. Milei has done wonders there and my sincere hope is that Trump 2.o and team can do the same here. Things are off to a great start, but victory is not guaranteed either in terms of finances or of liberty. Remember, the enemy gets a vote and while they are off balance now, cornered rats and desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine can go sideways and hot in a heartbeat; China could be stupid enough to try to take Taiwan; Kim could have an oops with a missile (deliberately or legitimate oops); and, well, you get the picture.
Frankly, mankind needs to be off Earth and spread out in self-sufficient settlements and in large enough populations to survive anything reasonable. To listen to some of the ‘oh we shouldn’t do it crowd’ there’s no way to save humanity if the sun goes super-super-nova or Ragnarku IV comes in and blows up the whole solar system so we just shouldn’t even try. Bull Feathers.
Humanity has always been at its best, and achieved great things that also raised the standard of living across the board, when there were frontiers. Others have explained this far more eloquently and in great detail, but we are at our best when we have frontiers and challenges. Space offers us that in spades, and without many of the issues and problems that were part and parcel of our expansion on Earth.
Mars is a first stop, and Luna and other moons offer the chance for large-scale self-sufficient settlements. We should explore and pursue such. However, I would like to see some of what Dr. Yoji Kondo explored in science and science fiction (writing as Eric Kotani). His book, along with the redoubtable John Maddox Roberts, The Island Worlds, is a good place to start, and is part of the inspiration for the title of this piece.
Actually, we should start with the original book in the series Act of God but it is hard to find even used I understand. And there is good reason to start there as it sets forth an important start to space exploitation that in part inspired a suggestion or two I made in my post on X-prizing asteroid defense. For humanity to live and thrive in space, we need water. There is lots and lots of water available, if we have the will and skill to take it.
Frankly, we need to be looking at comets and more as the ability to separate water from chemical bonds on the moon may not be as easy as previously thought. I’ve been watching a number of discussions amongst those who really know what they are talking about (see Dennis Wingo on X) and we need to be looking at other sources. There does appear to be ice (to varying degrees) on Luna, Mars, and elsewhere, but it is limited. There is potentially a lot more out there in terms of comets and more that could supply space settlements for thousands of years. Even a large number of settlements. Hence, one of the scenarios for the X-prize post is if the asteroid has ice that’s quite a resource to control. Metals and such matter, but water is indeed life.
And speaking of life, I’m going to jump ahead just a bit and point out that asteroid colonies offer a far greater chance for the expansion of the human species. As noted in this post on Sex in Space, we do not appear to know if we can reproduce in space. If there indeed have not been follow-on experiments to the Frog Embryology Experiment, we need to do them and keep in mind that asteroids may offer the best solution. Also, keep in mind that experiments (SCREWBA and the like) on Earth were not done in microgravity but neutral buoyancy, and there is quite a difference between the two. Even people who know better can make mistakes on that.
Okay, back onto track I hope. Planetary bases make sense as a first step out into the solar system. Mars makes a lot of sense, and if you look at the Boring Company and other business ventures of one Elon Musk, you might notice a plan. Living on Mars will require going underground or into mountains and the like because of radiation and solar hazards. Nice that he has a proven means already in place to do that. And if you think that is luck or happenstance, I have a bridge for sale…
But, to supply planetary bases — particularly with water — is going to take something more. To truly start exploiting the resources of the solar system, we need to get out into, and settle, the asteroid belt. This was what Yoji Kondo explored in several of his books, and there are a number of ways to do it along with good reasons to do it.
Nice thing about even just plain rock asteroids: they offer the chance to either mine into them to create shelters and colonies, or they offer the ability to build (pre-fab is great) structures in place on the surface. Need extra shielding? Burrow into a large asteroid and have fun. Need gravity? Simple, trim and spin. This gives you the ability to generate gravity gradients that run from micro/zero gravity up to several times Earth gravity at need.
Why would you need it? Various industrial processes can and do make use of gravity. Also, if we find that certain levels of gravity are needed for successful reproduction in space, they/it can be provided. I really want to see this addressed before the first Mars mission as if it has not already happened (cough) we need to make sure that sex does not lead to tragedy. Nor should we be experimenting using people. That is just plain wrong, and is very easy to prevent.
There are other reasons, including food production. I suspect that aquaculture will provide a lot of protein for space colonies be they planetary or otherwise. However, mankind seems to crave other forms of protein in addition or in replacement. So, having the ability to raise such makes sense to some degree.
If you want a fuller discussion of exploitation and why bases and such are good for that, go read the full series of books. It’s only about four, but they touch on a number of interesting and important scientific theories. Metals, rare Earths, and more are out there if we can but go and claim them. Do your processing in deep space and there go your pollution worries. Heck, do them in orbit and the same holds.
From the point of view of ensuring humanity’s survival in the face of realistic issues, spreading out into the asteroid belt just makes good sense. It is far enough to mitigate some of the effects of the Sun; and, having meters to kilometers of rock between you and a Carrington Event or worse is a very good thing. Also, having humanity spread out around the complete solar system is a very good thing from a survival standpoint. It makes us much harder to kill as a species.
Also, keep in mind that asteroid bases and colonies, or even stations and extraction centers within the belt, dont have to deal with significant gravity wells. It makes it much easier to get around and to get processed materials back to Earth, Mars, or where needed. If we want to launch further out into the solar system, again, this is the place to do it.
Mars is the first step, but if you want to truly make humanity an astral species, and take Mankind to the stars, you are going to do it from the Island Worlds.
Just some thoughts to share.