Category: Terrorism

Not a surprise. The embassy evacuations yesterday, that had to be done by the evening local time, were a sign. It may be hours or even a day or two before a lot of reports can be confirmed, but there are some things that are clear even now.

First, clearly a decapitation/regime change strike. The U.S. seems to be focused on infrastructure and some logistics, while Israel is taking out the rest. No surprise, and a good use of resources as (and I’ve noted this before) Israel has an almost frightening degree of penetration within Iran. When you can plant bombs in light fixtures months or longer in advance, set up robotic machine gun arrays, and more, you do indeed own your target.

That seems to be getting put to very good use in this attack. One of the firmer rumors out there is that the attack commenced once the senior leadership of the mad mullah regime were gathered together for a meeting. Much like the start of the 12-day war. Except, this time, it wasn’t military and nuclear leadership, it was the full top leadership including the ayatollah his own self. Seems that once that was confirmed, boomity.

Despite that, I’m taking reports of various eliminations with a grain of salt simply because one should. An operational rule for such things is never accept the initial reports, and even with some confirmation plan and continue as if the strike failed. If nothing else, you take out the secondaries and even tertiaries along with leadership that could fill any vacuum. Fact is, pretty much the entire membership of the IRGC will have to be taken out for any regime change to succeed. For those on X and wanting to keep up with the latest, here is a link to my Intel list.

I am wondering if, once again, Israel has blown open the doors to Evin prison. I certainly hope so. Both the U.S. and Israel have sent the message to the Iranian people that it is up to them. The Pahlavi team has as well. Video coming out of Iran has shown people literally dancing in the street in celebration. All good signs, but I also hope to see some concrete actions starting soon once the initial strikes are over. That will tell the tale.

It should also be noted that Iran has probably sealed its fate no matter what. By attacking all its neighbors with a strike, it turned neutrals and potential neutrals into enemies. Worst miscalculation: Saudi Arabia. The attack on them broke cultural and other norms, and has brought the Saudis into a full state of war against Iran. If things don’t move fast enough inside Iran, don’t be surprised if the neighbors don’t act. Side thought, this is also going to do more to strengthen the Abraham Accords than almost anything else could have done.

There is also a lot of truth to the discussions that October 7th was the worst military blunder in history. Most are putting the blame on Hamass, but the operation was approved and encouraged by Iran. It was a gamble, and if Hezballess had joined in as apparently planned, it could have put Israel on ropes. Or worse even. Instead, for a day of horrific rape and murder, Hamass, Hezballess, and other Iranian proxies are a shadow of their former selves militarily (sadly, politically still viable thanks to enablers and supporters among the progressives in the West). Now, the head of the serpent may well have been cut off. If Iran does get freedom, expect to see a number of open and covert proxies develop problems.

Along that line, if you have not read Kurt Schlichter’s book The Attack do so quickly. Today is not a day for sandstone, but a time to go red and put your head on a swivel. Of the millions who came over the border under Biden (and even before), a number of IRGC members or operatives are believed to have been among them. They might not be happy at regime change, and they may have received orders (or had standing orders) in that regard. Be prepared.

Not going to say much, but while I suspect some of that threat has been neutralized, I wouldn’t bet on it. I’ve seen it apparently happen once before, many years ago, but one should never count on a repeat. Be prepared.

More soon. I truly hope the people of Iran take this opportunity to reclaim their country. I hope they make good choices and decisions, and embrace freedom. The world will be much better off if they do so. That said, it is up to them. This is their moment, pray they rise up to it.

Meantime, keep your eye on Pakistan-Afghanistan. This in many ways has the potential to be more serious and have even larger consequences on the world than Iran. Right now, about every jihadist group in the world is siding with the Taliban. This includes certain families and groups such as the Haqqani. On the positive side, Pakistan has the chance to do the world a huge favor if it eliminates those groups/networks/etc. They have already taken out a Taliban general it seems.

The downside to this conflict is the tribal nature of the region. If enough tribes/families turn, there is a potential for Pakistan to either fall, or fall into internal turmoil that is not good in a nuclear nation. The last thing anyone should want is nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of the jihadis.

It is not a simple situation with simplistic solutions or ideals. Approaching it as simplistic is a potential invitation to disaster. If anyone tells you it is simplistic and X must be done, especially a politician, shun them and their proposal. It is easy to say ‘we should support Pakistan’ but you also need to recognize that tribal loyalties matter more — even within the Pakistani government — than most in the West can grasp. Personally, I hope Pakistan ends up eliminating a number of threats to the West and the world. However, my support is selective as I don’t want to see certain factions (tribes) gain sway on the ground or in the government. For all that Iran can still hurt us, having nukes in the wrong hands could be much, much worse.

Right now, all we can do is wait and watch. I expect the mad mullahs and their ilk to try their best to take everyone down with them. Keep in mind, they want such as a means to get the hidden imam to return. Also, they are just that type of people and they will do everything they can to get as many civilians and others killed. They are also going to double down on lies and more, and are likely to try to get as many proxies or remote teams to take action as possible.

Which means the next few weeks are going to be a time to be on watch and be prepared. It is always good to use and exercise your rights, but the next few weeks will be a crystal clear time to do so. Be prepared to walk fast at need, and to maintain situational awareness. Be Prepared.

One more thing: you are going to hear a lot of politicians and other supporters of the Iranian government screaming about the attack being illegal. It’s not. The courts have ruled on this even. Generally, the President can act unilaterally though he should brief Congress within 48 hours, and Congress has to approve if action goes for more than 60 days. Please don’t fall for the lies.

More later perhaps. Still recovering from yesterday morning, so likely taking as much of the day off as possible.

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Iran has been a powder keg for a while now, and I’m truly surprised efforts to end the rule of the mad mullahs didn’t kick off a year or so ago. So I was unsurprised when things did start to blow up and an effort begun to bring back a return of the Shah. Sadly, I now think that may fail and do so because the President did not keep his word. This has implications far beyond Iran as well.

First, let me state yet again that I do not believe we should put boots on the ground. While it would be great to get rid of the mullahs, it is something that has to come from inside, and there are hundreds of thousands who have taken to the street — and tens of thousands who have died. Our support of that needs to be logistical and via eliminating certain infrastructure, preventing troop movements, and related.

Someone is already doing that, on a limited scale, and I have an idea who is doing it. That said, more is needed and we can do such via airpower. Some very good thoughts are over at The Lawdog Files here, here, and here. Think I linked to them before, but doing so again as they are good reads. But, again, and again, and again: freedom can’t be brought in or imposed from the outside via boots on the ground, it has to come from the inside.

Thing is, President Trump told the Iranian public that he had their back, to take to the streets and if the regime tried or started to kill them, he would strike. That was weeks ago and as I said before, the deaths appear now to be in the tens of thousands. Machine guns and more are being used; militia from Iraq have been brought in to help control certain regions; and, Arabic troops/mercs have also been brought in. The revolution is now in danger of failing, at least in my opinion.

Something to consider is this: at the start, when Trump first called for them to take to the streets, America was in a good position both to help and to have a very good relationship with the Shah and others in the new government. Now, we do not and will not enjoy such as the people are remembering that America’s word really isn’t worth much in the Middle East. As the blood flows thicker and deeper, the willingness to trust and work with the U.S. is dropping. If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.

Worse, right now the mullahs feel emboldened because Trump/the U.S. hasn’t kept it’s word. They see the desire to negotiate as weakness. If the revolution fails and all they see are games being played with drone tracks, they are going to take that as a go signal to speed up efforts to restore nuclear development and go nuclear, as well as to go all in on terrorism by proxy. The downsides are severe, and the damage to the reputation of both Trump and the U.S. can’t be overstated. It will likely end effective foreign policy for this administration.

I have suspicions as to what has been going on, and I truly hope that Qatar does not have its hooks into certain members of the administration. Sadly, there is a lot of damage done right now regardless of the source. A promise was made, a red line set, and nothing done when the mullahs gleefully crossed it. There is still time, but a lot of damage has been done and it will take more than words to undo it.

What is happening is an unforced error on the part of the administration. One that has serious implications for stability and peace in several parts of the world. If the mullahs fall, it changes the calculus on Russia/Ukraine, it cuts a number of nasty terrorist groups off from major funding and operational assistant (and remember some of them were operating out of Venezuela), and it ends one of the most serious nuclear threats out there. If they don’t fall, and we don’t act, all of that gets put on steroids and we will be lucky if it only redoubles.

Not words I thought I would be writing when this started, but words that need to be said. I think Trump is getting some very bad advice and I have questions about the intel he is getting on operations and the numbers of Iranians killed by the mullahs. It would have been far better if he had kept his mouth shut and not made a promise he wasn’t going to keep. There is still time to turn things around, but it is fast running out.

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I had really intended to write about the dangers of the civil war certain progressive elements are pushing (as I mentioned here yesterday; and I think Sarah is both very wrong and somewhat right here and Tom Knighton hits many of the points I want to raise), a chance exchange on X this morning with The Diplomad has pushed me to expand on some previous work.

If you are one of those who doesn’t remember the Blogosphere of old, and did not read The Diplomad, you truly missed out. He is posting far more on X these days than on his blog, but I have always found his work to be insightful, well-reasoned, and a pleasure to read. He is one of those wonderful people that even when you don’t agree with him, you are moved to think and consider all he has to say. Oh, and you also really should read of some of his adventures in interesting places working for State.

This morning, he was kind enough to make a one-word comment in response to a comment I had made to a post of his. This has led to an exchange where it turns out we are on the same page as to the need for a bulwark in Eastern Europe to contain a fallen Europe and to defend against other incursions along the old Muslim invasion routes.

I’ve talked a bit about this before (here for a start, several linked posts within for those interested). If I were one of those well-dressed apparatchiks in DC, I would already have a catchy name with logo and full marketing for this concept. Seems that is what sells and gets things considered in DC; but, I’ve been thinking a good bit more on issues of substance instead of marketing. Right now, I want to lay out my current thoughts in the hope that I might entice The Diplomad into sharing some of his.

Background: England has already fallen and even if every Labor/Torrie is voted out today I fear it is too late to save. I’ve written about this in previous posts, and see no way England as we used to know it survives given demographics. Even if they do mass deportations, it will get bloody and what comes out will not the be England we knew, but something else. France is in much the same boat with many of the same political calculations on the part of ruling politicians. Germany has committed economic and demographic suicide and is fighting being given the political equivalent of narcan by its citizens. Switzerland is iffy, though I have not discussed it before. I am worried about Spain, but would invite The Diplomad’s thoughts as he is the expert there. Italy could still save itself but is hamstrung by local bureaucracies and the EU. The Netherlands could hold out for a bit, but demographics alone will see it swamped fairly quickly. Belgium is pretty much lost already. I could go on, but that covers major and some minor players. For one take on the Muslim conquest of Europe, check out Tom Kratman’s book Caliphate. No, I don’t get anything if you buy the book, other than satisfaction. I can see something like this within the next 20 years.

Background II: Per previous posts, NATO is committing suicide at the behest of the EU bureaucracy, which is primarily the WEF progressive crowd. There is already strong sentiment within the U.S., including within defense circles, to withdraw from NATO. I support this, which may or may not bias my analysis to some degree. NATO was valid and necessary for many years; however, it has outlived its usefulness and has become a strategic and economic liability to the U.S. Given that the EU is twisting things to engage treaty obligations against our own interest (and that of the EU members IMO), we need to look at our participation.

Background III: For all this came out of a discussion of a “New NATO” what I am proposing should not be a military alliance. Rather, it should be an economic and civilizational alliance that focuses on unleashing the intellectual, technical/scientific, and skills-based resources within a framework of Classical Western thought and processes with a focus on individual liberty. Much like the U.S. was originally founded. Within that, there should be a component to help the member countries to develop and field the ability to defend themselves against any incursions from West or East.

Personally, I see Poland as the linchpin for this effort. I admit, I have a soft spot for them given their role in ending the godless authority that was the USSR, as well as other anti-communist efforts. They have had the political resolve to stand up to the EU bureaucrats, which speaks highly of them. Geographically, they are in a unique position: it can either be a highway for invasions or a block against same. It has been both at different times in the past. Ports on the Baltic allow some Sea Lines Of Communication (SLOC), which is essential for trade. Yes, those can be compromised (see Larry Bond’s book Cauldron for a fairly thorough analysis of such, and no I don’t get anything if you buy it) but real trade depends on shipping, and they do have the ports needed. It has produced numerous scientists, engineers, composers, and more over the centuries. It also has a fair bit of resources.

To go back to the ports for a moment, those also have another use in this context. We really don’t want England and France’s nukes falling into the hands of a new Caliphate. I hope (possibly against hope) that we have already drawn up plans and are working to plant the seeds that when things go fully south in England that we can get their nukes out. Part of this should be encouraging truly loyal members of the RN to either bring them to us (not likely currently) or to a fairly neutral third party. Poland and it’s ports fit that bill. Same holds true for France. Air bases in Poland could accept flights carrying weapons to safety. As for people flying to safety, I would recommend extreme vetting and not allowing any such refuges citizenship or voting status for about three generations. Finally, when I proposed that if any member of this new alliance needed to be made nuclear to deal with nuclear threats, I recommended Poland in part because that is not something they want or desire. If you don’t get why that is important, think on it a bit and look at those countries openly seeking nukes as you do so.

In the center there is Hungary. A beautiful country with a rich heritage that has also stood up to the EU bureaucrats as well as to past Muslim invasions. While it does not have seaports, it does have extensive river ports and operations that link it with several of its neighbors. River traffic is still a much larger component of trade than many still realize. There have been some criticisms raised in regards their relationship with Russia; but, I think some of those are misplaced and most else can be dealt with in the course of creating the alliance.

Next is Romania. It has seaports, river ports, rich resources and a lot of good people. It’s navy may be small by some standards, but those within it are proud and professional. If it can remain free (and keep in mind the EU vacated their elections when they didn’t like the results) they have everything they need to become a powerhouse, possibly even on the world stage. They have not resisted the EU bureaucracy as well as Poland or Hungary, but have blocked a number of things. Creating an alliance of which they are a part could give them what they need to take themselves where they want to go.

Next is Bulgaria. Mountainous enough to prevent extensive river traffic (and many north-south rail lines), but it also has ports on the Black Sea. It sits astride many of the invasion routes used by Muslim armies in the past, which has kept it from the development experienced by more peaceful lands. Again, a lot of potential here that could be developed by the Bulgarians if they were part of such an alliance. More on that later perhaps.

Now, to the west of Romania and Bulgaria are Serbia and the Balkans. These too are potential candidates for such an alliance, I would note that bringing them in not only provides strategic depth, but additional SLOC options for trade and defense. If Italy doesn’t fall, it would allow the Adriatic to be a secure trade zone both between alliance members and potential overseas partners and customers.

Going back to Larry Bond’s novel Cauldron and to Kratman’s Caliphate, it would be nice if Spain could hold as it would make the Straights of Gibraltar less of a choke point for international trade. I would also note that if Denmark were smart, it would make any trade or sale of Greenland contingent upon support to resist a European Caliphate. For all that Denmark has shown some awareness of the problem, they have not taken it seriously nor posed any real resistance to the EU bureaucrats. If Denmark falls, the Skagerrak is at best “iffy” for trade; and, if Sweden falls it will close it to effective traffic.

Frankly, I see Sweden as 50/50 on whether it falls or not. The politicians and public seem to want to deal with the migration issues; but, the super-woke bureaucracy is dug into the body politic like a disease-laden tick. Digging that out and making real change will take more than many are willing to give I think. That said, it could be yet another reason to try to get them into such an alliance.

I would also consider the Baltic states as potential members, though they are a good part of the reason I think this should not be a military alliance. Members can make self-defense treaties between themselves, but should not be able to make treaties that obligate others. The purpose behind the alliance is to promote economic growth, which will allow them to defend themselves as they see fit. Pushing economic and individual liberty is a key part of this, as such always results in growth at many levels.

Finally, such an alliance should look at Finland. Ports, resources, and a lot more. It would also help secure the Baltic, and prevent a European Calipahte from being able to do as much via sea power, economic or military. There are also some other financial factors, but we may explore those another day.

As I’ve typed, I’ve had the idea for a name for this initiative to pop into my head: the Free Europe Initiative. Encouraging economic and other growth while advancing the concepts of freedom and individual liberty that are the bedrock of Western Civilization would provide not just a light for continental Europe, but potentially to the whole world. In a world gone mad, such will be much needed.

Just the rough outline for now. I’ve got some other thoughts already in place, but this needs more fleshing out. More soon I hope.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.