Category: Intelligence

Iran I

Going to hold off on saying a lot right now, but will say hold on to your hats as there is more to come. Some of it mindblowing. Right now, I want to say two things.

First, great job Israel! Thank you.

Second, to the people of Iran: this is your moment. Make the most of it. If you wait for outside troops and others to free you, you will never be free. The corrupt and rotten regime is teetering and will not be able to freely respond. So, the ball is in your court.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About That Signal “Leak”

In part to play devil’s advocate, and in part because if one theory is right my hat is off to this administration as an op like this has not been pulled off in a decade or two. I have suspicions, but will note that I will wait to see what comes out — and will also note you need to pay close attention to phrasing then. For now, enjoy some thoughts sparked by an online discussion with Tony Katz (website) this morning. I may have to do a little tap dancing in spots, but…

Three scenarios came to mind when I first heard about this. Let’s take a look at those options.

First, that this was done as a deliberate effort to harm the administration. Given the amount of resistance, malicious compliance, and theatrical temper tantrums (and threats to sell info to our enemies) it is a valid concern. Mitigating it is that Michael Waltz (not to be confused with the other) is hand-picked by Trump, former Greenie Beanie, former Congrescritter, etc., etc., etc. Still needs to be investigated, but would be surprised if this was the case.

Second, that this was done accidentally. Plausible. Very plausible even. Stuff happens and it would not be the first time someone got added to an e-mail or other chain that proved embarrassing. It has happened a couple of times to me, and in one case I was glad for the confirmation of where I stood and what was happening in regards one situation. Embarrassing (and a potential liability) for them, good intel for me. I’m sure some of you can add some similar situations in the comments. If it was an accident, a whacking of knuckles or such is warranted.

The third option is where this gets fun. Let’s start with something almost everyone who has been around government knows, but also ignores to some extent.

The fact is, governments send each other messages by a variety of means. There are the official messages, couched in careful diplomatic niceties, that always accent the positive even when those governments hate each other’s guts. You play nice as that is expected and it’s usually a good way to keep tensions at a point just short of war. It’s a way to shore up relationships, or to strengthen them. I will caveat that smart people realize that governments do not have friends, they have allies — some good, some not so much.

However, official channels are limited and usually anything but frank. J.D. Vance’s comments to European leaders a few weeks ago were refreshingly frank for many of us, and considered a breach of proper manners by many officials. It is rare for such comments to be made in any official capacity. Which is why, for not years but even centuries, there have been unofficial channels.

Such activities have often been lumped in with the history of intelligence operations, which is not really where they belong (IMO) but if interested you can find some fascinating examples in European history. To be honest, if you look at Japanese history there are some good examples. It is also worth noting that when there wasn’t such, or something happened to that channel, bad things like unexpected wars or “accidental” battles took place. Net result, wise leaders (or those who served as éminence grise or consigliere) made sure such were in place.

The fact is, since it can’t be said in public that Government A thinks Government B (especially if they are ostensible allies) is a bunch of corrupt poopy-heads that are being stupid, you need a means to get that message to the other side unofficially. There are other such messages that often need to be sent, usually along the lines of “we see you” and “don’t do that again.” Then there’s a third level of highly unofficial when accidents happen that never happened. Governments rarely admit to losing people, aircraft, subs (or being responsible for same) in circumstances that never officially happened. Nor will we discuss the disappearance of agents, operatives, or others; nor the discovery of the bodies of such on doorsteps or in staged compromising circumstances.

Instead, for today, let’s focus on the need to get unofficial information between governments. If you want a number of examples, look at the information flow between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. There was quite a bit of unofficial flow, which ranged from carefully staged leaks (or, possibly, operations on par with The Man Who Wasn’t There in WWII) to using businessmen and journalists as conduits. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, a LOT of essential discussion was channeled through a journalist both sides trusted.

It is important to note that not all of these conduits were aware they were being used to send messages. Sometimes it was a one-time thing, sometimes it was done as a part of normal business operations so as to keep the person in the dark. And, sometimes, it is rumored, it was done to some poor sap that had PO’d one side or another and got used and was figuratively (and literally) disposed of afterwards.

Sometimes, using someone is made very easy by the person being used. They can be greedy, needy, of limited trustworthiness, or other flaws that make it easy to use them. You know them and their flaws, their triggers, etc. Some of the people used before have been, er, interesting, to be polite. They also have spanned the strata of society.

Which is why I find it believable that Jeffrey Goldberg may have been a “deliberate accident.” If you wanted to get the word to some allies that patience is running thin with them, that their freeloading needs to stop, that some potential major changes are heading their way, and do so in a way that made such clear without it being an official communication, you could count on him to get it out.

I’m willing to bet a donut or two that he had already contacted any number of European leaders or his contacts in their offices to share this information. The man hates Trump and his admin with a passion, and he would see this as a means to hurt them. Keeping quiet in this case is something I don’t think he literally do. So, get in touch, share, reeeeeee a bit, and probably let them know he was going to publish but give them some time so they were ready to pounce when the time came.

Now, he has gone public and if the message didn’t get sent before it sure has now. Everyone knows what the admin thinks of various governments and entities. I will note that I have not read every word; but, what I have read is not classified nor a war plan. It may have given Goldberg a couple hours notice of what was going to happen, but nothing that could have prevented it. In short, it is really a nothingburger operationally, and the only concern lies in which scenario is correct.

A final thought on this track is that by going public Goldberg has, IMO, AD’d himself as he jammed his pistol into his pants. He on some levels burned a source; he verified what a lot of people thought of him and his trustworthiness; and, he has verified that he will put politics ahead of national interest. This is going to burn him even with people who “officially” support him right now in the long term. In the twisty murky world of leaks and sources, burning a source for almost any reason puts people off on trusting you. If you know someone can’t keep a secret, you don’t share truly important things with them. If you show you are a partisan hack to the world, even those on your side are going to start treating you as such.

That what has happened is effectively a self-immolation, is just icing on the cake from an ops standpoint. When I said on social media yesterday that things fit, this is what I am talking about. You know the messages got out, you know some of the results, and in the process you let an avowed enemy do harm to themselves.

So, I tend to be a bit suspicious that this could have been a very deliberate accident. As for what it really is, we likely won’t know for a while. One of the things I have loved about the current Trump administration is the lack of leaks. They have been amazingly good at OPSEC, which again, is a tick in favor of the third option.

It is a point to consider, and I hope you will do so. We will find out the truth someday, and it will be interesting to find out for sure. I would be cautious accepting anything announced right now: it is custom to some extent to “obfuscate” or flat out lie immediately, especially if it can make an op work even better. Right now, my bet is this just doesn’t get mentioned and the comments made so far are all that are made. It would be the smart move, and so far Trump and company have been smart. We will see.

UPDATE I: Corrected a type, be to bet.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Terrorism

Right now, there is a lot of chatter about this or that group being domestic terrorists. There is chatter about a terrorist supporter here on a green card being deported. Lots and lots of chatter (got to drive that engagement!), but to my mind some important points are being missed.

Yesterday, I shared a post on X about how what is going on now is how the Red Brigades and Baader-Meinhof got started. I shared it because to my mind it made a point while missing the point. The poster in the thread that followed held forth that this is just starting. It’s been building for years.

Mr. Andy Ngo has been writing about Antifa and others for several years now. Here’s one example outside of his book(s). I seem to recall writing about some things going on a couple of years ago myself with interesting groups getting interesting training and how it was even more interesting that top leadership had encrypted coms and more. I also believe I wrote a bit about how the shooting of transformers was not limited to the Northwest and was a much bigger issue than the FBI and others cared to admit.

The fact is, the modern equivalents of the Weather Underground, Red Brigades (a group with which my 12-year-old self had direct experience), and others are already here. They are organized and funded. Does anyone really think all those massive pro-Hamass riots were spontaneous? Heck, certain leaders have admitted they funded those demonstrations. Personally, I think a lot of the groups we are seeing active now are second- or third-order groups enabled by the long-term efforts of the first-order groups mentioned above.

It’s a classic move. Get one or more hardcore groups into place quietly. Build up cells, stockpiles, and more. Test the system a bit (transformers are but one area tested) Identify and recruit true believers who get checked out, and if they pass go overseas for clandestine training. Meantime, use other members to help recruit and establish new groups who do the things that get attention. Make sure there is insulation between the originals and the second- and third-order groups.

As the second- and third-order groups do the flashy public things, the first-order group or groups can do things far more important and have a lot of it buried in the noise. And, if the flashy public things bear fruit, it advances the cause.

Right now, I suspect we are seeing a deliberate use of those groups even if it puts them at risk. The fact is, the attacks on Tesla dealerships and owners is terrorism, whether you quibble by calling it domestic or not. On one level it is domestic; however, I strongly suspect the ultimate driver and funding source(s) are not domestic. Nor does it stop with Tesla.

Frankly, I’m surprised it’s taken this long for the “peaceful” attacks to return. They truly are not protests, nor are they demonstrations — unless one considers them a demonstration of violence and the willingness to use same. Progressive/Socialist ideology has always embraced the use of violence, and the analogy that they see it as a rheostat is not wrong. Nor is it wrong to note that others see it as a binary switch. There is a reason a number of us have warned about the danger of letting that switch be thrown, because we have seen it in the world now and because we actually study and understand history. The Reign of Terror in the French Revolution was actually relatively mild if you know history.

Right now, you have the progressive left/rule by the elites crowd in disarray as their world is being destroyed by the Trump administration. Major sources of funding (graft) are being cut off, people are being laid off, and efforts to reform the government and government spending are proceeding rather rapidly. The methods that worked on Trump 1 (lawsuits, resistance, etc.) are not working this time. People are being exposed and since legacy media has shot itself in a sensitive area adjacent to the leg, it can’t be hidden.

Now, add to that the fact that there are a LOT of governments and politicians who do not want to see the U.S. reformed. I will even start with the EU (and UK Labor) who have interfered in U.S. elections for a while now. On top of that, the UK, France, Germany (and probably others) also don’t want to see the reforms happen. Moving beyond our “friends” (allies, though that may be stretching it a bit these days), you have Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China…

Interesting information is that the servers in the attack this week on X were located in the Ukraine. This may be false flag, but I do find it interesting. Especially since Zelensky’s media operation has been accused of doxxing American journalists, and calling for their arrest or assassination. Still evaluating some info, but not getting warm fuzzies.

Interesting information came out this morning on another front. Anyone who has been truly paying attention is aware that Vladimir has really been pushing the sabotage efforts, especially the “accidental” damages to undersea cables and pipelines from dragging anchors on ships linked to Russia. There are also a number of reports of GRU units active in Germany and elsewhere. This morning, it emerges that the captain of the cargo ship that rammed the tanker supplying U.S. Navy ships is a Russian national. Now, the thread I linked believes for now it was truly an accident, but we are getting to the point where I don’t believe in coincidences Mr. Bond.

If Kash and others can get DOJ and the FBI back on track (a topic on which I retain strong doubts, think they need to nuke and start over), I think we might discover some very interesting things. Personally, I think there are at least two first-order groups working within the U.S. Possibly three, but the patterns in the data indicate at least two. There is an argument to be made if Antifa is first- or second-order as it has been public far more than the norm for a first-order group.

The third-order groups are going to get all the media attention for now. Expect to see not only more violence, but sob stories in legacy media on the order of ‘she was a good girl who meant well she shouldn’t be prosecuted for doing X’ and even more of the ‘it’s wrong and a violation of the First Amendment to deport those supporting or engaging in terrorism’ stories. On the latter, it is legal since if you are here on a Visa or green card you are not allowed to support terrorism or designated terrorist groups. Meantime, there is a huge difference between peacefully espousing your views and leading riots that block access, illegally trespass, and physically assault others. The first is protected, and the second should not be tolerated at all.

Quick aside: if you don’t follow or read Gad Saad, you should. I really need to add his books, particularly his new book on Suicidal Empathy to the Amazon Wish List. The West has a lot of problems. If we can save the Republic, which is not guaranteed, we still have even larger fights to come to save what remains of Western Civilization. And, yes, that is something we really do need to do.

However, the first- and second-order groups are the ones who worry me right now. The third-order are the shock troops, the cannon fodder even though they (mostly) don’t even suspect such. The others are the ones who can and will do real damage if ordered. By my estimates, some three battalions worth of military-aged males entered the country under the Biden Regency. How many of them joined the ranks of those first- and second-order groups that were waiting. What is their task?

If we had an intelligence community and law enforcement focused on their job and doing right by America, we might know. Instead, they are focused on politics and trying to maintain an order that is done. Which makes it a scary time for America and American’s who are paying attention.

There is a lot to celebrate in the efforts to drain the swamp and restore the Republic. Thing is, there is a lot that can go wrong too, and I will repeat again that the so-called elites have no idea how much anger there is in that almost eighty percent of the population that supports what is being done. I do not want to see that switch flip — to to have things get where those first- or second-order groups can work to flip it.

So, keep your guard and preparations up. If things get truly tense, don’t respond to provocations. Until then, celebrate your victories and work for more. As always, keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Flip Side

Yesterday, I talked a bit about the Pagercide (and more) committed against Hezballess by parties unknown (cough) but widely suspected to be Israel. As I noted then, it was and is a masterstroke of an op and targeted against leadership with minimal chances of collateral damage. Brilliant. Pity they reportedly had to go early.

But, as I noted yesterday, it does raise a number of questions, many of which fall under the umbrella of ‘is it a good idea to buy products, especially critical products, from an open or potential enemy country?’ It is a very important question, and I’m old enough to remember when purchasing com gear from a NATO member who wasn’t always, er, in sync with NATO and it’s operations, generated a bit of conversation — some of it in public even.

Yet, a decade or three ago we began outsourcing a lot of our manufacturing, assembly, and other work to China and other countries that were potential enemies, somewhat open enemies, or former open enemies. Now, admittedly we have a thing about rebuilding former enemies and trying to turn them into our friends. Sometimes it works; sometimes it works for a few decades; and, sometimes it really doesn’t work no matter how much one or both sides try to paper over things. China is a case of where we tried to turn a potential/semi-open enemy into a friend and bring them out of communism in the process, and in my opinion at least it has been an abject failure on both counts.

Now, Cdr. Salamander and members of the naval brigade have been jumping up and down and pointing out that buying critical products, like port cranes and more, from China was a bad idea. They have been jumping up and down for a decade, if not longer, in fact. A number of others in non-naval roles have done the same for other products in other areas. I will simply note that when I’ve tried to point out that it is a bad idea derision is about the nicest response, and they go downhill from there. Lots of DC applecarts would be upset by recognizing reality. Heck, the CCP and Winnie the Pooh really don’t even bother to hide all the money (and other considerations) flowing into American politics and politicians, even into academia and other fields.

I’m less worried about explosives in devices as I would hope that despite the massive corruption and incompetence is our major institutions such would be discovered fairly quickly. That said, it is a possibility especially if you weren’t obvious about it. There are other things that I think are a far greater possibility that our elites and major institutions are furiously ignoring.

First up, intelligence gathering. Just for fun, go look at your phone, computer, the computers in your household appliances, the computers in your car, and other delights. How many of them are made in China? Other interesting countries? How about the major components such as chips? Where were they assembled?

Now, think about how easy it is for a company like, say, Apple to monitor what you do and have on your computer? Think they can’t and don’t? You haven’t read your terms of service, and unless you take steps that destroy a lot of functionality, they can, have, and will hoover a lot of info and can share it with LE and others quite legally. It is also not that hard to activate built-in cameras and microphones, both by the manufacturer and others who are up to no good. Most every computer security person I know has tape over their camera unless in use, and some have even installed switches to control microphones — even if they take a more ‘moderate’ approach in public comments. That says a lot.

Now, add in that if you have a smart home of any type, you’ve given permission to more than one entity to monitor everything said in your home. Ostensibly it is both to ensure commands are heard and to train the system to understand what you (and others) are saying so commands can be heard and heard correctly. How hard to you think it is for other parties to gain access to that info, openly or covertly? Especially if they make the hardware or the key components of same?

Now, take it a step further. How many of those large and important cargo cranes in our ports are made in the U.S. and how many of them are made in China? On the latter, who wrote the software and what is contained in all those lines of code? Chips are incredibly complex, are you sure you know what every part of every chip does? How many other critical products, including military products, use chips or other parts made overseas? Imagine if a data packet could be sent to tap something hidden in plain sight, and shut those products down? Or simply change a charging parameter so that your lithium battery overheats?

Years ago, a friend of mine named Bryan Gibson (sadly passed now, a very good artist) came up with a concept for a story where in a futuristic society terrorists attacked by simply changing tolerances in systems by one decimal place. Imagine if auto-avoidance or terrain-following systems suddenly went to feet (or more) instead of inches of tolerance in areas where inches counted? Don’t know that it ever got finished, but it is not only a quick way to create chaos, but to cause populations to lose faith and confidence in their systems. And, with a lot of fiction, it was a warning. One we have not heeded.

Just as an aside, if you are not aware, various Western government agencies often insist on backdoors for things like encryption, other software, and even systems and networks. Sure they get proper warrants to use it, really.

Heck of a thing when you have to start with the assumption your systems are compromised from the start. Even more fun is realizing how easy it would be for someone to turn them all off or otherwise manipulate them.

Imagine that things go hot with China. What would happen if a signal were sent, or a regular signal not received, and the port cranes quit or began to operate wildly? Same to systems in power plants and other critical infrastructure? Even down to your smart refrigerator and other appliances in your home?

It’s not that far fetched, and in fact it is a cold douche of reality that it can happen. We are conditioned in many respects to giving up privacy for the convenience of our smartphones and apps, which gleefully send information on our locations, purchases, purchasing habits, and more to those who use it and sell it. Not that hard for an enemy, foreign or domestic, to tap into those data streams. Not that hard for someone ill-intentioned to use our hardware and even software against us.

Leaving aside domestic considerations, it’s beyond foolish to allow open or potential enemies to supply critical infrastructure and systems. Civilian, military, it doesn’t matter. The opportunities for intel and for system denial in time of war or crisis are far greater than most realize or will admit.

Caveat Emptor.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Bravo!

Sorry for the lack of posting, been fighting a sinus infection and other smaller issues. Took some time to rest and heal a bit.

The operation by whomever (cough, Israel has not officially said it was them, cough) to take out Hezballess (HT Chris Loesch as apparent originator) operatives was masterful. On several levels even.

First, it was fairly precise targeting, which limited (nothing can eliminate the possibility of) “civilian” casualties. Limiting the explosive to one or two ounces helped guarantee limitation of collateral damage. Those who are screaming otherwise, and that it was against the rules of war, are both wrong and far more upset that their favored side was hurt and that the Jews dared defend themselves instead of just lining up for the slaughter. By their words and actions, they reveal who and what they are. Make notes.

Second, if they could intercept and do this to THOUSANDS of pagers, do you think they wouldn’t be able to also use those devices to track locations, monitor communications, and more? Months of data, and just the location data alone would have revealed locations and more. Where did they meet? With whom did they meet? Where did they go when things got hot? The so-called meta data on this is tremendous on its own. If they literally did get inside their coms and were reading the mail…

Third, most interesting that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon had a Hezballess-issued pager. Not surprising in the least, but interesting. Even more interesting is that a rumor is making the rounds that the pagers were altered in Iran. For those that aren’t familiar with how things like this work, it is not likely that Hezballess placed a direct order with Gold Apollo for the pagers. Because of sanctions and other delights, there would have been cut-outs, middle-men, and such in play. Odds are good that various blinds and fronts were used by the IRGC to get them and have them shipped indirectly to Iran. From there, they would then go to Hezballess.

Now, think back to the recent assassination (that made the news) allegedly by Israel (who once again has not claimed credit) inside Iran. That one set a cat amongst the pigeons in Iran as members of the IRGC (and possibly others) were implicated. Nice little round of purges and accusations got going before being stomped out by Iran’s top leadership. Lots of hard feelings, suspicions, and upset at not being able to eliminate internal enemies (political) on the part of several it would seem. Now there is this. Openly or not, the cat is back amongst the pigeons and there is a good chance of all heck breaking loose. Let your enemies attack themselves is an ancient and honorable concept, and I think it just got played beautifully.

Fourth, if you think Israel wasn’t watching the hospitals and other locations to see who came in and when, and wasn’t monitoring local social media for news and IDs, I’ve got a bridge for sale… Again, no way for them to know in advance who all the members of Hezballess were. They do now, and can plot that against all the intel from the metadata and…

Oh, and as for those who are screaming about doctors having pagers too, note that only doctors (and other medical types) who were members of Hezballess were issued “augmented” pagers. No danger to honest medical types, only terrorists. See the above about those who are upset as their side was hurt and no Jews died. It applies to those making this argument too.

Fifth, whomever did this just took Hezballess pretty much offline. In many respects, not just temporarily. Lots of damage, including lost hands, fingers, etc. Those that raised up to look at the mesage (a la the Iranian ambassador) have eye damage if not permanently blinded. When you are talking several thousand injured simultaneously, you’ve taken major units (and potentially several thousand others) out and rendered them combat ineffective. If Israel gets lucky, some of those having to take command are not truly fit for such and are going to do stupid things. Stupid things always, ALWAYS, open doors for the enemy, and one presumes Israel is prepared to take full advantage of such openly and covertly.

If you also go in and hit some of the critical centers you’ve already identified, you can do a lot of de-fanging. Funny that I heard reports that Israel hit a number of targets in Southern Lebanon last night…

Also smart is that Israel (if they did it, cough) was smart enough not to tell the U.S. in advance. Good thing, as in hours after U.S. officials were allegedly briefed on the op that details were leaked to corporate media, who promptly spilled the beans. Leaks to hurt Israel were the rule (and specialty) of the Obama admin, so no surprise that such continues now. Cough. One hopes that such a briefing left out key details and may have even included daisy or two. That is, information that may be true (or not) but is not precise and is intended to send people down the wrong path. After all, it’s not the first time the current admin (cough) has done such to hurt Israel. Know your enemy and use them accordingly.

One more positive benefit out of the op is that right now, terrorists everywhere are looking at their coms and going “oh bleep.” I guarantee you some have ditched pagers and other items in panic. Why? What if it wasn’t just Hezballess that was targeted? Who do you think supplies coms to Hamass, Hooties, and others around the world? Also, if one country did this, what’s to say others have not and would not do this? What this has done is to create mass uncertainty and to emulate Hamass and go as much as possible to in person and courier communications. Which will slow things down and bring up yet other opportunities for infiltration and co-option. I mean they could go carrier pigeon, but with drones and/or the amount of explosive you can fit in or on a pigeon… Just sayin…

There are some other points but I’m going to skip them for now. Especially if this was not a one-off use-or-lose op. What I will say is BRAVO! and bow in respect to a mastercraft operation. Whoever did this, my hat is off to you.

UPDATE I: The next round has begun, with radios and other devices exploding across Lebanon. What I said two paragraphs above is now playing out in the open: no electronics are safe. Terrorists around the world are having to look at all coms, and even solar chargers, as compromised. When even your battery charger can explode, there is nothing you can trust. Also, you may find the first explosive charge, but what if there is a second, hidden/camouflaged charge in the device? I mean the children and grandchildren of Pride-of-Dupont have come a long way since it pretended to be paper orders after all. Remind me tomorrow to talk about other potential Christmas Gifts/Easter Eggs of which we need be concerned.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About That Intel Issue

That is so serious it is requiring multiple meetings, lots of SCIF briefings, and is apparently being leaked madly in the name of saving the Republic (cough, choke, wheeze). Oh, and is also being linked to crucial, crucial I say funding for Ukraine and is so important no money can be wasted on our borders… Sigh.

For now, color me skeptical, unimpressed, and needing jusssssst a touch more info (/end Harry Doyle/Bob Uecker voice) to be convinced. Right now, the bookmakers are putting good odds on it being the Russians, in the library with a candlestick, er, in space with nukes.

Okay, I’ll bite. One, nukes are about the only credible threat Russia has right now, and even it is a bit wobbly in my opinion. I still subscribe to my ‘tyranny of the 20 percent’ concept in which I think they (or us) will be lucky to get 20 percent of the weapons and/or weapons systems to work. Just look at how well Nikita’s, er, Vladimir’s demo launch worked during Biden’s visit to Ukraine.

For as much as I am NOT a fan of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and would like to see us either re-negotiate the majority in light of commercial operations or withdraw from them, there are some interesting and needed weapons provisions that I think are good things even though I’m also more than a little suspicious that China (1983 signatory I think) is well on its way to scrapping some key lunar and orbital points. For that matter, I’m pretty sure Russia has already violated it a time or two (but that’s true for pretty much every treaty they have signed).

Until there is more information, there’s not a lot that can be said — which is not going to stop the grifters and pundits from putting forth thousands of empty words. I’m going to wait and see what comes out other than leaks, then offer some analysis and thoughts. Until then, just consider my cynicism as a given.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Week Wrap Up

There is a lot happening on and in the world. I’ve not been saying a lot because in both cases it’s hard to know what is really happening.

First up, in tales of the improbable, I’m starting to like John Fetterman. He has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Israel’s right to defend itself. To the point of mocking protestors (even making fun/use of his own brain damage) and hanging the posters of the hostages at his office. He has also been mercilessly trolling Bob Menendez and pushing to have him expelled from Congress a la Santos. His hiring Santos to make a video on Cameo to use in said trolling was a master-level move. Whatever else may come, I can respect and even admire these actions.

Next up, the situation in Yemen and the incompetent response to same. In this case, it’s not just the Biden Regency, but the senior leadership of our military which has reportedly not even briefed Biden and others on options for dealing with the situation. That is coming from multiple sources, and for some reason said leadership seems to know nothing about the history of such attacks or other pertinent information long in the public domain. It is to the point that I wonder about both Intelligence failures and the failure of basic intelligence in senior military (and political) leadership. At least someone seems to be paying attention and taking proactive steps, though everyone is keeping quiet about it. Pretty much rules out DC as that feckless bunch would have been leaking the news and taking credit before the strike ever hit. Wish I could find the video I saw the other day, as the secondary explosions are spectacular.

There are rumbles that part of the reason senior leadership hasn’t briefed Biden or others is because of the Biden Regency’s unwavering support of Iran. The Houthi are Iranian-backed and full proxies for the Mad Mullahs. Again, multiple sources are discussing that behind the scenes the Biden Regency has been pushing Israel hard to not destroy Hamass. To the point an open rift between Israel and the U.S., or at least the Biden Regency, is a growing possibility. The dance has been diplomatic so far, but it appears Israeli leadership is increasingly fed up with the pressure and interference. So much so, there is no guarantee the dance will stay diplomatic and papered over. Israel is in a fight for survival, and I don’t care who is getting ten percent, the Biden Regency needs to pull its sense organ cluster out of its ventral orifice and back off.

They need to be looking a bit closer to home at a potential Monroe Doctrine violation. Iran’s good friend Maduro in Venezuela is making a move to “annex” a portion of neighboring Guyana. A portion that just happens to be a good chunk of Guyana, and that has recently discovered rich oil deposits. Right now, I’m skeptical that this is all part of some overarching plan by Iran against the U.S., but I also have no doubt they are encouraging this. I’ve read some who say that if we had only done more to help Ukraine Maduro would not be doing this. I don’t agreee: Maduro is stupid, venal, and desperate enough to do this even without any encouragement. His recent vote on doing this has blown up in his face not just internationally, but apparently internally as well. The U.S. has been making deals with him recently (once bought, they do tend to stay bought), so I don’t see the Biden Regency as being all that eager to stop him. I think Brazil may be the major player in such, at least for now. Hoping this may stay below a boil, but…

Also, keep an eye on Chad. Something’s going on there, possibly more than just the upcoming election. Odd data patterns.

Going back to Iran and our incompetent leadership, rocket and other attacks against U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq continue. No effective response has been made yet to those attacks, which just encourages more. The lack of concern for our troops (and national interest) is beyond appalling.

Now to Iran’s fastest growing client, Russia. Lots going on beneath the surface. In fact, it sort of reminds me of one of those huge family get togethers where everyone is being super polite to each other openly because if not it will result in a fight where police from multiple jurisdictions have to be called in and the family gets invitations to be on whatever replaced the Maury Povich show.

Somebody on X joked that the sanctions were supposed to put pressure on Vladimir via his fellow oligarchs. The problem is, the oligarchs decided they preferred to be alive, if poorer and grouchy, than to experience defenestration. There’s a lot of truth to that. There is a lot going on beneath the quiet facade however.

Vladimir is having to allow (or create) at least some dissent on the war in order to legitimize upcoming elections. There are those who are pushing for a cease-fire (or more) in regards Ukraine. Just as his own re-election is a given, the results are going to show Russia wanting the war to continue. Allowing some token of opposition, despite the brutal and expanding crackdown on speech and more, can be used to put a flimsy veneer of legitimacy on the election. Russia now is not the Russia I visited or of 20 years ago. There is no free speech, no basic freedoms of any type left. It is toe the line or else.

Which apparently is a memo Kiva did not get. It’s easy to get on Vladimir’s bad side these days, as several of the turncoats are finding out. Yes, I do think it was Vladimir and not Ukraine.

This is something to keep an eye on as well. There continues to be a lot of shakeup/shakedown in regards Wagner and Africa in the wake of the death of Pringles. Interesting how some of the power and perks are shaking out.

Despite the repression and brutality, two things seem to be getting clearer. There are some who oppose the war with Ukraine and their numbers are growing. There also appears to be something of a resistance forming as well, as I’ve noted before. It seems to be mostly local and not some grand organized conspiracy, and is clearly separate from sabotage efforts by Ukraine. As to who is behind this I can’t say; but, there are a number of such incidents happening across Russia, far more than I think Ukraine is capable of doing on its own. Rail accidents, fires, and more that keep popping up. Given the restive nature of many of the non-Rus ethnic populations, as well as ongoing political conflicts, things could get really interesting.

Do I see this flaring up to severely damage or take down the Russian Federation? No. Not yet, and possibly never as it would take a fairly large event to rip the lid off. Could such happen? Yes. I can think of two or three scenarios right off the bat that would do it, but don’t see them likely at this time. For all that I think Vladimir’s control is slipping a bit, I don’t think – barring something off the wall – that he is in imminent danger of being deposed. Kadyrov still has his back for one thing, and he still controls a lot of power. Springtime? That may be different.

Now, if his health suddenly deteriorates much faster or more noticeably than it is now; or, if there is a major defeat (political or military), then we probably will see moves against him. If he makes a major political blunder (in Russian political terms), there are those who would move to take him out in a heartbeat (pun intended).

I will note that while I am sure Vladimir sees Russia as the senior partner in the Russia-Iran activities, I am not sure Iran sees it that way. In fact, I’m pretty sure they don’t which raises interesting possibilities.

Russia and Vladimir are presenting an image (illusion) of calm and unity to the world. It reminds me a lot of the USSR which did so even when literally bloody infighting was ongoing. Much was kept out of the public eye, at least until a new group stood in review along the Kremlin walls. That is happening right now I think, and while we could end up with a public meltdown I get the feeling a number of people/groups are trying to keep things out of the public eye.

Which is what makes Russia/Soviet watching so interesting. It’s trying to see past the illusions and find out what is going on beneath the surface. That there is a lot of movement underway right now is a given; but, the hard part is trying to see where the movements and currents from the movement lead. The big fish/strong man may not be what they seem, for the solid position they hold may be in whole or in part a Potemkin village. The person or persons who move against them often don’t seem to last long, as the next big fish/strong man was simply using them. Stalin and Khrushchev come to mind in that case.

Right now, Vladimir is standing tall and showcasing a mighty position of strength. How much of that position is real, and how much is illusion, is the key. There are people lined up and ready to take his place however they have to. Which, if any, of them survive to do it is the question. The ones to watch are those who profess loyalty and actively support Vladimir, and have privately and quietly indicated they would only consider stepping up at great need (and in the absence of Vladimir) for the good of Russia.

Sometime soon I need to do a post on the real lessons from Ukraine, focusing on data and flexibility. Quite a few are fixated on drones, and missing a key point.

That’s a run down of some of what is happening on the world. For more on what is going on inside the world, check out Volcaholic on X. There is a lot of volcanic activity underway beneath our feet, and his posts on strange and interesting weather and other phenomena are fun and interesting. Check it out.

More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Interesting Indeed

For all I am a bit pre-occupied by the upcoming surgery, I am trying to keep up with things. I am watching Nigeria as the attack on our diplomatic convoy says interesting things.

I’m also trying to keep up with the happenings in Russia. There is a good bit going on, from smoke (the alleged upgrades to mobile missiles) to something that may be a bit more solid. I think we could see a major upheaval within the higher levels of the Kremlin in the next few months.

The source of that is, of course, Prigozhin. His feud with the MoD is in many respects as much political as operational. So much so he ended up on the outs with Vladimir and while there are some reports that there was some level of reconciliation, the response to Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut rather clearly indicated not so much. Nevermind that directly or by proxy he seems to be taking steps to possibly make a run at the top spot.

He very much continues to push the limits of what criticism can be made against Vladimir, and seems determined to not just push that line but eradicate it. His comments and rants are beyond current cultural norms for such, and he seems to want to go even further. That is a rather risky thing to do in Russia, particularly right now, unless he is willing to make a true play for the top.

The Washington Post “expose” of his alleged dealings with Ukrainian intelligence is not helping his position in Russia. For all the pro-forma being said by the government in public, in private far more interesting conversations seem to be happening. I do have questions about the leak, as I don’t trust anything from the Post, especially something like this.

Do I expect anything to happen in the next couple of weeks? No. Not unless someone gets a major case of the stupids. Do I think things could come to a head in regards Prigozhin in the next three months? Oh, yes. Particularly if he continues his efforts to criticize Vladimir while continuing to make behind-the-scenes preparations. I’ve talked before about the cultural norms, and by moving beyond them Prigozhin is not just alienating a lot of potential support, but ensuring opposition to any political moves in a number of quarters.

For those interested in the WP “leak” and a different (but similar) take on things, check out this from the ISW.

Ship Killers

Elon Musk made a post that proved to be part of an interesting thread. The current intelligence disaster has revealed concerns about Chinese hypervelocity vehicles and that they are preparing to go all out against the U.S. Navy. No shit.

This is a party that’s been going on a while, and yes the Chinese are very serious about this. Far more so than our Navy appears to be at this time. Before the Chinese were the Soviets, and the object that was labeled a “mini-Shuttle” and often presented as a scale model test.

Just one problem with that: it really didn’t scale up/could not be scaled up according to a number of analysts. Then, when you looked at the tests of the vehicle, well, they had a naval component and didn’t seem to fit a “space” profile per se. To a number of people, including me, it really seemed to fit the profile of a Hypervelocity Kill Vehicle (HKV)/Hypervelocity Ship Killer (HSK).

Add in the fact that defending against objects moving at those speeds can be a bit of a challenge, and that if something that size hit a carrier at speed it could go through it long-ways. Except that it and the carrier would probably be a rapidly expanding fireball by that point. Even a near-miss could have potentially catastrophic results for both the carrier and any ships nearby.

There was a lot of “never happen” and the concerns were poo-pooed in the usual quarters, but at least a few people paid attention. Would that I thought any current GOFO or civilian military leadership was doing so today. For all that some are claiming hypervelocity delivery vehicles and such are over-hyped, they truly are a game changer, even when they don’t carry explosives.

Just a thought to brighten your day.