Had really wanted to get this up yesterday, but had to spend a good chunk of the day getting imaged, tested, and treated. It’s been two or three years since my last major flare, so I can’t complain although I wish I had caught this one sooner. In a bit of pain still, but think the mind is clear enough to dig into what I flagged in this post.
There are actually several things going on and I’m starting to think more of them are connected, and possibly even coordinated, than most people think. Can’t prove it, but a thought: Take the last few major deep-dives by Data Republican in regards NGOs, altruists, etc.; compare and contrast with some of the things Preston Byrne and Mike Benz Cyber are covering; and, then look at some of the odd things going on here, during an election year, that don’t seem to be making much sense. Hold that thought.
The big scary international thing is, of course, Estonia/Russia. I’ve seen a lot of head scratching over not so much what is going on, but why it is going on. I suspect the answer is very straightforward: Vladimir sees the chance to get multiple targets with a single stone. If it works, great. If it doesn’t work now, he’s still laid the groundwork for later.
The real target isn’t Estonia. It is NATO. To be blunt, NATO is a hollowed-out shell of a force which would have a hard time defending against a cranky cub scout with a popsicle stick — if not for the United States. To be fair, most of the “new” Eastern European members have been taking their commitments seriously. However, almost all the “old” Western European members haven’t taken their commitments seriously in decades. They’ve used the U.S. to fund their unsustainable welfare states and let everything else slide.
I hit part of the list the other day. Canada is a joke in terms of numbers (people, ships, etc) and outside of a couple of ice breakers they have no effective force and no way to project power. England, well, sigh. The England I loved is dead and gone, and has been for some time. Right now, they literally can’t put together a squadron of ships, even a squadron of two — unless you are counting rowboats. They’ve gutted manpower, weapons, systems, and done everything they can to demoralize the troops and demonize those who have served in the past (including lawfare against those who served decades ago). That’s a page Australia has picked up to a frightening degree, and while they still have some force on paper, I have doubts about how much truly can be brought into play or that the current government would even try to bring it into play. Germany has a fraction of the number of people serving that they need for defense, much less offense, and little way to project that force outside of Germany. My suspicions on how much they could project in Germany (unless it’s against the AfD) are not charitable. I could keep going, but you get the picture.
When, aside from some of the Eastern European members, the most robust member militarily is Turkey (who’s leader has Caliphate dreams) you’ve got problems. Again, I could say more but if you scan the data you will see it for yourself.
Now, as Old Paratrooper noted in a comment to the previous post, at least some of the members are starting to step up. Problem is, they are starting. Getting the materials, then training people, etc., takes time. Let’s say everything goes perfectly: you get the supplies on schedule and in the quantities ordered; you have people step up to serve (or draft them, suboptimal) in sufficient numbers; you get decent training set up (that’s the hard part, just ask Col. Kratman); and, training goes to schedule and plan. You are talking a five- to seven-year timeframe, minimum.
Now, if you think Vladimir is not aware of all this (or that he lacks staff with brains), I’ve got a bridge for sale, cheap. He’s also very well aware of what a feckless bunch the majority of current EU and/or European leaders are. Heck, I suspect he has huge amounts of compromat on most of them. Which might explain a few things but that’s a digression for later. Right now, he’s very well aware that quite a few “leaders” are extremely upset that their rice bowls have been kicked over not just overtly by Trump and his current administration, but covertly as well via shutting down the USAID/NGO scam that funneled billions to progressives around the world.
Vladimir, Winnie the Xi, and others are also extremely aware that the U.S. is working to re-up its military game. Panama, Venezuela, and other areas where China (and Iran and others) had bases in the hemisphere have undergone changes in attitude if not management. That’s one reason Carney’s hopping into Xi’s bed to cuddle has shut a LOT of doors in DC and elsewhere. Add in his attempts to also suck up to the EU and put them directly on our doorstep, and it will be years to repair the damage done by Carney and the regime up north. Trust me, the U.S. is not the only one observing the antics and making notes. Back on the main subject, they have also seen Pete and company make some serious inroads on restoring the U.S. military as a fighting force that wins wars. They are also tackling a number of logistics problems (nightmares to be honest) and other issues that will make quite a difference.
In time. As with NATO making an effort (token on some parts IMOthe ), it will take time. There are a lot of people with vested interests in keeping the old system and its rewards in place, and they are fighting a stubborn, if quiet, holding action against the reforms. As I noted on X, take a look at who all opposes Louisiana II (as I am calling it). Make a list, because they are the problem and are the ones fighting effective and needed changes. For the reforms to truly take and to prevent a return to the old status quo will take at least eight years, if not double that.
Again, Vladimir knows this. He knows that not only do a lot of European leaders hate Trump and company for ending their game, they hate all that Trump and the U.S. represent. He also knows that a number of them, if faced with a real threat of war, would fold in place like a cheap chair.
Couple of other things to keep in mind. First, there are a lot of politicians here in the U.S. that hate Trump and his administration for shutting down their rice bowls too. They, too, hate the idea of the peasants having a say and not doing as they are told. I have to wonder, how many of them have pulled a Teddy (not Roosevelt) and had a private talk with Vladimir or a high-level intermediary to request help and/or coordinate. How many are in the camp that would like to see a civil war in the U.S. as they think such can be managed and restore the old order? Sure does seem a bit suspicious the number of violent offenders being let out immediately in some areas — almost like there’s an effort to provoke a response from the public that is, or can portrayed as, a vigilante action that requires drastic measures… I wonder about a lot of things because the patterns in the data seem to be surprisingly interconnected. There is usually a reason for that.
Now, let’s get back to Estonia and Russia. Keep in mind that Estonia, like a good chunk of the world, is slated to become a part of the New Russian Empire via Russkiy Mir. In fact, I do believe it’s on the sooner list. Securing Estonia also thwarts a NATO bottleneck via the Gulf of Finland, which gives the Russian Baltic Fleet some additional options.
I see several different options in play here:
First, if NATO makes it bluntly plain that if any incursion into Estonia takes place, it will be met with overwhelming force then Vladimir can do nothing and blandly say he never planned to do anything. He’s expended no real capital, no political capital, and all the prep work will still be in place.
Second, in that case I would expect him to wait and see if there is a change in administration in a couple of years. After all, there are a lot of countries who would love to see such a change and might even be willing to help make that happen via info campaigns, funds, etc. I mean, what’s the difference between an info op in regards data centers and trying to swing an election? Just a thought. Also keep in mind who was President here (and what party they were part of) each time Vladimir made territorial moves. Hate to say it, but the smart money would be to do nothing now and wait a couple of years.
Third, continue the Sudetenland playbook (said it was an old playbook, and to be honest it’s even older than this suggests), run a limited op to “liberate” Narva, and see what happens. I think Vladimir is betting that NATO will fold, which will effectively end the alliance even if the bureaucratic shell still totters along for a while. Eastern Europe will know beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are on their own as far as the EU is concerned, and let’s face it, that’s what truly counts since most Western European countries are hollow, brittle shells of any former might or glory. The hollowing out has been going on for a couple of decades now (longer, really) and I don’t think there is enough time left to fill them back in. Hope I’m wrong, but… Very sadly, I think this may well be the most likely scenario.
Given time, I still think a new and better bulwark can be built with the Eastern European countries. See previous posts on a New NATO. Again, the problem is time and I think Western Europe has far less of it than they realize, and that Col. Kratman may well be a modern prophet via his book Caliphate.
Now, if Estonia’s neighbors and some of the Eastern European NATO members go all in and stop the “incursion” (guarantee that is what it will be called rather than an invasion), I see two possibilities.
First, that provided they stop at the current borders and strike no major targets inside Russia, things may stop. Return to the status quo, people and leaders give sighs of relief that things didn’t escalate, and life goes on.
Second, and most likely, Russia moves to widen the war. It’s not covered much, if at all, by corporate media in the U.S., but Russia has been testing air defenses in Poland and elsewhere on a regular basis for quite a while now. “Accidental” incursions that allow Russia to see how fast countries and systems react, how they react, and what happens after. The second the responses get slow, or the incursion gets ignored, the odds that the next time is real go up dramatically.
Keep in mind that moving to help Estonia means weakening your own defenses, whether directly or in terms of depth. Do I think that Vladimir would take advantage of any such opportunities to damage or take out what he regards as enemy states? You bet your bippy. Again, keep in mind, they are on the Russkiy Mir list too.
And while I’m peering into the patterns, I do see limited nuclear use (or attempts) as possible. That said, I do not see them as probable at this time. Which is why I also don’t see a full nuclear exchange as a real possibility at this time. May that never change. Besides, give us six to ten years and see what happens…
Then again, that emphasizes part of the problem: time. Right now, Vladimir sees the opportunity to take out NATO on the cheap. He is well aware that time is not on his side in regards NATO or the U.S. Or even Ukraine for that matter. Which makes me think something unpleasant is indeed about to happen. And quite possibly not just in Estonia. There are too many out there seeing their rice bowls and way of life upended, and in far too many cases (IMO) they are active/stupid people. Which means we could see a number of sad, foolish, and even stupid things happen.
Which means I very much hope my Option One is what happens. Status quo and there never was any plan to do anything to Estonia. I also hope that here we continue to walk the knife edge and avoid real unpleasantness here at home. There are times such is trying, and the easy thing to do would be to act. Please continue to think, and to avoid the reaction some people seem to foolishly want to see happen.
I see a number of very hopeful futures in the data. The trick is to avoid the efforts to send us away from them. Like I’ve said, I think the next six months are going to be very interesting. Stock up, hang in, and hang on.
Be prepared and Pray. Keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.
BTW, before you reach any final decision about my thoughts here, may I also suggest you read this from Yuri Bezmenov and this about Mexico’s interference in our government. Here’s a hint. There is a lot more interference in our processes and elections than you think. Also, go read up on Russia’s asymmetrical warfare, which is not limited just to Europe. Expect to see a lot more of that too, no matter what. Also, this from Instapundit is something you want to read.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. If you would like to help me with seminary courses, pilgrimages, and more, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. Thank you.
