April 2025 – The Laughing Wolf

The New Bike

A few weeks ago, I asked for your suggestions on a new bicycle, and several of you made a lot of good suggestions and points. I’ve been looking around and visited several shops, at least two of which had dogs as their top salespeople. In fact, visited two of the shops more than once while looking and researching.

The lead sales force where I bought my new bike

So, last Saturday I went and re-learned how to ride a bike. My balance and coordination weren’t all that great (IMO) before the lightning strike, but definitely took a hit from it (pun intended) and having vertigo issues hasn’t helped. But, with some quick coaching and encouragement, and skipping some near misses of light poles and such, I was able to ride again.

I also rode an e-bike for the first time and found it interesting. It had a throttle and other controls that made it more like a motorcycle than a bicycle. It was different and once I got used to it, not unpleasant.

After riding it, one of the humans at the shop talked with me about things I needed to consider: mobility, carrying, ease of use, and a few other things. Mobility dealt with being able to get on and off a bicycle, and the fact that at my age who knows what additional mobility issues I may face in the future. So, they strongly suggested a step-through design (similar to girls bikes in the 50s and 60s). Being able to easily pick up whatever I got, for putting it on a bike rack on a bus or car, or to carry it around an obstacle, was also a consideration. There were a few other considerations for a person my age, and we covered them.

The e-bike I secretly wanted, though it lists for what a good used car would run.

Then he showed me around the shop and made a recommendation on one of the brands they sold. It was an e-bike, Urtopia brand, but one very different from the one I had ridden earlier. In fact, it hit several of my non-physical/preparedness considerations.

Unlike a number of e-bikes, you can ride it without the electronics charged. In fact, on my test ride, I started out with zero assist and still managed to easily get it up above 20 mph (on a flat/level surface) just using the regular gearing (8 speed). No throttle, start your ride just like a regular bike. The frame is carbon fiber, so I could easily pick it up even with the artificial shoulders. The tires are not super-wide, but are large and can handle streets, gravel, and dirt. Not sure about sand or a beach, but that’s not likely anyway. It also has a built-in security system that I can engage remotely if needed.

The range for the powered side is roughly 70-80 miles, and I don’t know how fast it goes yet as just the second level of assist gets me going faster than I care to handle right now (25-30 mph range). I still haven’t taken it above 2, and it’s going to be a while before I engage the (no joke) turbo mode.

It truly was fun to ride and reminded me a bit of the Raleigh Record from my youth. I do have to remember to squeeze both breaks, as they are apparently pneumatic and work very well. My steering and balance need work, a lot of work, but that will hopefully improve with more riding.

With it, I got what is supposed to be a very good helmet (Smith) with a rechargeable light on the back to aid with visibility. Helmet itself is florescent yellow. The shop also installed a mirror for me and it does help. Security is provided through a bar-lock system (linked metal bars) that folds up and attaches to a carrier mounted on the frame. There is a bag on the back rack that has fold-out side pockets that drop down and can hold larger items and/or a fair amount of groceries. You can get a lot into that little bag, and you can also take the bag with you when you leave the bike, it even has a shoulder strap for that purpose.

Me being me, I’ve also attached a rescue strobe to the bag to help with visibility. Of course, if anyone doesn’t see my fat fluffy rump they are too blind to be driving IMO… I also want to find a way to mount a Streamlight tac light (or larger light even) to the handlebars for an improved front light. What comes with it isn’t bad, but when you need light I really would rather have the power of a Streamlight.

Yes, I did pay more than I would have liked. Then again, I also remember when a top line bicycle cost just $200. As it is, got some good discounts and the new bike was actually less expensive that one of the used rental bikes. It also fits into the bike racks on the IndyGo bus, which gives me a lot more flexibility in travel. For all that I don’t mind a good walk, the bike gives me savings in time as well as in the distance I can cover.

Plan to check out battery life and such here over the next few weeks. The security system does draw power all the time, so need to keep an eye on how that effects things. Then again, static life may not be an issue. I rode it home from downtown Indy the day I bought it, and yesterday after doctor and groceries, took it out along the Pennsy Trail for a few miles. Stopped at a place I’d wanted to check out for a while, and accidentally left it fully on while I was inside. Even with that, battery level only dropped a notch or two.

Indy does have a network of trails for pedestrians and bicycles based on old railroad lines. Looking at using a couple of them for shopping and such where I don’t need my cart but can use the bike bag and/or a backpack. There are a couple of places I like to go, but require a bus change where you can wait thirty or more minutes for the second bus. I can hop over to one of the trails on my bike and get where I want to go in less time than that.

I just wish the Wally World and Meijers closest to me had secure bicycle “parking” as I can easily reach them using one trail in a faster time than by bus. Security is key for me, as right now I can’t afford to replace it and need to look at some insurance to cover it just in case. I also need to look at pulling my elbow and knee pads out of the deployment bag as they might come in handy. So far I haven’t fallen and haven’t run into anything, but who knows. Better safe than sorry.

Other thing that will be ongoing is getting the seat adjusted perfectly. It probably needs to come up at least another inch, but we decided to keep it where it is for now until some of the balance issues with starting/stopping ease up. The one thing I think does need to be done is tilt it down just a hair so that it is a bit more comfortable. Few more rides, and we will see.

Having a bike, even an e-bike, is good for my physical conditioning as it is a workout if done right. It also will save me a good bit of time in running small errands without having to walk, wait on busses, and other such joys. Finally, it will let me cover far more distance than just bus or via leather personnel carriers. So, buying it hurt my inner Jack Benny, but it looks to be a very good investment. That it should also help with recovering more balance and coordination is the cherry on top.

More on this adventure as it develops. Onwards.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I’m Back

At least sorta. I needed the week after Holy Week to recover on several levels, and am still taking it easy this week where I can. I’m also doing some discernment on some things as I want to be sure I am doing the right thing, at the right time, and for the right reasons.

Along those lines, I’ve accepted/decided that, barring something very unexpected, I will not be able to make the Lightning Strike/Electrical Shock Survivors association annual meeting this year. The transportation costs were just too high, and were going to be at least $1,200+ So, right now looking at ways to get down to visit family and friends in Chattanooga and Georgia some other way. What funding I did have for this had to go into a local transportation option (see next post). One day I will get to attend it.

Had a visit with my GP yesterday, and it went very well. While I was just a shade low on red blood cells and hemoglobin (eating more greens prescribed), the other numbers were fantastic. Cholesterol low, bad cholesterol very low, kidneys excellent, liver excellent, digestive system much happier now that I am back on a Mediterranean-influenced keto diet. Already down a couple of inches and several pounds. For now, trying to stay with two meals a day, no snacking, and Lenten portions as that seems to work very well.

So, GP and Cardiologist happy. We may even be looking at reducing or eliminating a couple of the meds I’ve been on. The less meds, with good results, the better. Some more neuro testing coming up in June, will be interesting to get those results.

Onwards!

Into The Light: Pope Francis

While I am no longer a member of the Roman Catholic church, I have said a prayer for his soul and also prayed for that church. I was not a fan of Pope Francis, though I had hoped for the best when he was elected. That said, I do encourage prayers for his soul and for that church. Personally, I think they could do a lot worse than to look at Cardinal Sarah. To all Roman Catholics, my condolences on the loss.

A Blessed Week(s)

I’m very remiss on this and apologize. It has been a touch hectic around here, as I’m Chanting at multiple services and occasionally helping out with some other things. That said, should have done this much sooner.

I want to wish everyone a Blessed Holy Week, and a Wonderful and Blessed Pascha! Easter if you prefer. And may the Bright Week that follows truly be bright with joy.

For my friends of an older faith, I am modifying my usual greeting for something I saw that may be a bit more modern: Chag Pesach kasher vesame’ach. If that’s not right, I’m sure I will hear about it. 🙂

Things are about to accelerate, and Bright Week will be rather full. Regular posting may resume during it, but no guarantees. I’m going to take at least a couple of weeks off from Chanting after this to let me and my voice recover.

Bike: Thoughts And Suggestions?

I’m looking at getting a bicycle to aid in getting around town. Part of me wants a cargo bike, but those cost as much as a car, even used. I will admit I’m even looking at an e-bike so I can cover a fair bit of territory at need.

Does anyone have any suggestions? I know things have changed a bit since the days of my much-missed Raleigh Record, but need something sturdy, probably larger tires given the road and other conditions around here, and that I might can mount saddlebags and a back deck onto. Given some of the drivers around here, defensive auto-cannons might not be a bad option.

Found one place not far away that lets you rent bikes to try on nearby trails before purchasing. Seems like a good idea for me to try a couple and be sure the vertigo and other delights don’t preclude me from riding a bike after the lightning strike.

Any constructive thoughts and suggestions are most welcome. I know little these days about brands of regular or other bikes. Have found some places that sell used, plan to check them out too once I do some investigating and trials.

A Dire Situation

Well, really not that dire, at least in the conventional use of the term. What it is, is a good piece of corporate PR that serves up an interesting dish of ethics.

What I’m referring to is the announcement from Colossal Biosciences that they have ‘de-extincted’ the Dire Wolf. Yes, the caps are there for a reason, mostly to point out that I am referring to the species. For background on this, I will refer you to Leslie Eastman’s very good piece at Legal Insurrection.

Those of you who have read me for a while know I like and respect wolves, and did a small bit of volunteer work at Wolf Park (a wolf research and educational facility). In fact, got to spend some time with the founder, among others. Very much grateful for the time there, and the chance to actually work with/get to know some of the wolves.

I’m going to echo Leslie a bit here, and will simply state that this is overblown. It may be a step towards bringing the species back from extinction, but it is an early step that to my mind is no where near close. Got to agree with Leslie, if you want to bring them back you have to do the following:

1) The entire genetic sequence is from actual dire wolves;
2) The breed on their own; and,
3) They can thrive in the wild.

What they have done on certain levels is create a new wolf-dog hybrid. Admittedly, depending on how they did it, one could argue a wolf-direwolf hybrid, but the effect is the same. They have also created several ethics debates, of which I will approach only a couple of points.

First, it will be interesting to see what becomes of all the pups as they mature. Given all, I don’t expect the normal wolf mortality (roughly 90 percent of wolf pups don’t make it to one year of age if I’m remembering correctly) to be a factor; but, this is uncharted territory and there may be some issues that come up.

So, let’s be optimistic and say normal puppyhood. Seeing how they mature and how they behave as they mature will be interesting. The behavior traits will be most interesting. One of the reasons I used the wolf-dog hybrid analogy above is because it is always a crapshoot as to what behaviors you get in true wolf-dog hybrids.

Side note: quite a few wolf-dog hybrids are not. They are standard dog-dog interbreeds using dogs that look like most people thing wolves look. Lots of what I consider fraud there. When it truly is a wolf-dog hybrid, things get interesting.

One of the big problems, according to someone I used to know who testified as an expert witness in trials regarding wolf-dog hybrids, is that you really don’t know what range of behaviors you are going to get. Sometimes you get friendly and even obedient; and, sometimes you get that really not-so-nice-and-friendly behavior. Most tend to go middle, but that is a lot of ground and frankly a good bit of it is not something you want running around free in the neighborhood.

Which is where I have some issues with Colossus. They talk in the PR piece about re-introducing Dire Wolves into the world to help re-balance nature. Frankly, we are a lot better off (IMO) doing what we are doing with grey wolf populations right now. If you didn’t know, the re-introduction into Yellowstone has had some amazing benefits: deforestation blamed on acid rain turned out to be no such thing, but overgrazing by wildlife, net result forests are healthier (and that’s not the only example); wildlife herds are stronger and healthier; there have been improvements to waterways and the water systems; and, there is more.

Even with this, there are problems when you re-introduce into other, public, ranges. Yes, wolves will hunt the easiest prey, which can mean cattle and other domestic animals. There are other issues, and a lot of prejudice on both major sides of the re-introduction debate.

Thing is, grey wolves are a species of this time, with behaviors/ethology that has been studied and of which there is a reasonable (not complete) understanding. Re-introducing a species that sees (saw) humans as prey is not something I would consider a good idea unless you did so at government centers and agencies.

By the way, healthy wolves don’t see us as prey. I caveat that as sick wolves (including those with brain tumors and such) will attack humans but rarely do they decide to hunt adult humans. Children, especially infants/toddlers, well, easy prey and the latter make movements reminiscent of wounded prey, so…

Generally, unless sick or starving, wolves like to stay about a mile from us. The proper term is flight distance, as in they want to be able to turn and run away from us if we get too close. Now, they are curious creatures (and sometimes too intelligent when it comes to gate latches) and will get closer to check us out — provided they can stay under cover and get away quickly at need. It’s one reason they will creep up on camps and houses at night, when we are not moving about.

Question is: is that a trait that will be present in these pups or any future true Dire Wolf revival?

Now, a few other quick questions: Is it right and ethical to release a revived Dire Wolf into the wild? Is it right and ethical to bring back a species knowing it’s former range no longer exists and they will be in either a constrained area or in effectively zoos and similar facilities? Is it right and proper to try to force them to fit into a new niche?

These are just a few of the ethical (and moral) questions that abound right now. In most respects, my take right now lies somewhere between Sam Neill’s and Jeff Goldblum’s characters in Jurassic Park. I will also admit that knowing George RR Martin is in any way involved concerns me as he is a very reliable 180 indicator. If he is for something, thinks it’s great, etc., you need to head away from it at speed.

What is being done, and most especially WILL be done needs a lot of thought and consideration. I’ve got serious concerns even with this from a behavioral standpoint, much less others.

Thing is, we should have time to explore the ethical and moral issues as while this may be an early precursor step to restoring the Dire Wolf or any species, it is just that: an early precursor step. I hope time will be taken to explore the questions and develop a sound ethical and moral framework for such things. Given all, doubt it will but we can hope.

Meantime, we have some unique hybrids to study and hopefully learn from. And, I have to agree with Leslie, the howls are cute.

SQT: Smorgasbord

We are into the final two weeks of Lent, and I am beat. Not quite hitting the warm salt water gargle thing for my voice, but I am “eating” lime wedges with Tajin to help it. Have my second session with the voice coach today (feel free to hit the tip jar) and am looking forward to it. The number of services and such are growing, so may not be posting as much until after Pascha.

First up, the Supremes finally stepped up in regards some of the judicial overreach underway, sorta. Good news, the Admin can keep deporting illegal immigrant gang members. Sorta. If you look at it, they ruled very narrowly on procedural grounds, that the actions were filed in the wrong court. There is a bit in there about judicial review before deportation, but it is not spelled out other than that the deportees can and should get judicial review. It is at least a partial victory of the Admin, and it should kill a lot of the judge shopping now underway.

It should reign in a lot of the judicial overreach, but I doubt that it will as the judges currently involved have gone all-in with their actions. I fully expect them to continue. As others have pointed out, Judge Bombastic has left proper judicial far behind (long ago actually) and made clear this is personal for him. I fully expect this to continue with behavior far more fitting for the old Reichscourt than of American jurisprudence. Given that he has already ignored commentary from portions of the Supreme Court, don’t expect him to moderate at this point. Especially since there was no true rebuke from Roberts.

Nor is there likely to be such. Yes, I’ve been reading all the latest about Roberts and some of his unique relationships, and truth be told I suspect he is both corrupt and compromised. I also think it doesn’t matter.

Roberts is all in on the Judiciary expanding it’s power beyond the scope envisioned in the Constitution, and has fought/will fight/is fighting tooth and nail to hold onto such power. He is quite fine with using it against Trump and the expressed will of the People via election, as he is very much a part of the group that has benefited from all that has been going on. He will do all he can to keep it going on. While there are those who point out that all his decisions so far have been very proper in judicial terms, such ignores his pointed efforts to avoid any implied rebuke on his part to those judges attempting to assert primacy over the Executive.

Others appear to have made their opinions clear, but Roberts has tied himself in knots not to do so. Again, he is down with these actions and whatever else is in play, he is going to do all he can to not just keep things as they are, but to expand the power of the courts even further. Watch his wording in the things that can be publicly identified as his. Much less his highly unusual, and frankly IMO improper, insertions into the actions and considerations of the Legislative. Just wait until legislation really is introduced (spines needed in Congress, STAT) and see what he says and does then.

Oh, and notice Robert’s effective silence when leaders of Congress have attacked members of his Court. Well, at least the more conservative/originalist members of the Court. Speaks volumes, doesn’t it.

As for all the hoopla around tariffs and related, whoop. May it cause temporary pain? Yep. Do I have some concerns? Yep. Am I upset and worried? Nope.

One thing you have to give the man is that Trump is a negotiator. In fact, he’s done what appears to be a very good job in private enterprise, and he’s done what I think is an outstanding job as President. My attitude is wait-and-see and I hope this is yet another example of him doing something outre and forcing concessions and changes.

The latter is I suspect the key here. We need urgently to re-shore a lot of industry, from steel to pharmaceuticals. The way we have been doing things (from the 1950s in many respects) isn’t working. What has been done in the latter part of that time, with offshoring to our enemies (and the whole concept of doing so to make them our friends is morally and politically bankrupt), has been beyond stupid. In fact, criminal may well be a very apt word on more than one level. When your actions are indistinguishable from those that would be undertaken by an enemy…

And, yes, there is likely to be some pain along the way. No pain, no gain is a foreign concept to many. The idea of voluntary suffering for a better situation is unknown to large parts of the populace. I have to admit that during Lent I’ve wondered if a lot of the attacks on Christianity (particularly traditional Christianity) are not driven in part for that reason, given the focus on fasting and other “sacrifice” as part of religious life. At any rate, far too many think that change, particularly positive change, will come with no real effort or pain. A snap of the fingers, a twitch of the nose (a la Elizabeth Montgomery), and instantly and effortlessly the desired end state appears. If only.

Even I caught a bit of the effort by certain political operatives to crash the market. Having survived several much worse corrections, let me share a couple of things with you. First, if you are not near retirement, just wait, it will go back up. Second, if you are retired, it may hit for a bit, but again it will go back up. In fact, with the corrections in my life, it went back up and surpassed where it had been. Third, if you have some funds you can safely exploit, BUY. Again, it almost always goes not just up to where it was but (well) beyond. The last time something happened that dropped the market, I bought and if I had really gone all in I might not be broke right now.

From the looks of things yesterday, the U.S. market has already started to bounce back. While I am not a financial advisor and any thing I say in this column is purely speculative and not advisement (legal requirement/disclaimer), I will note that if you go opposite of Krugman and Kramer (sp?) you almost always come out very far ahead. Heck, if you can find out what Nancy P is buying or shorting, you should be able to get rich too.

And, before I forget, keep an eye on Russia and in particular the price of Russian crude. If it continues to drop, things will get very interesting for Vladimir and the Russians.

Also, I’m trying to get more data on a very anomalous seismic event in Iran. Actually, several things have happened that don’t really add up — unless one is doing either the precursor testing for or full-up nuclear testing. No hard data yet, but there may well be a reason both Israel and the U.S. are pushing hard on Iran nuclear issues. Pay attention. Repeat. Pay attention.

I would also suggest that it is most interesting who is coming out with warnings against taking any action. Pay attention there too, as a number of masks are dropping. The love of silver was not limited to one man in Biblical times. By their actions you will know them, and in knowing them you will know how much to credit anything they say or do.

There is more going on in the world, but that is enough for this morning. For those of Faith, may your Holy Week be Blessed, and your Bright Week filled with joy. Me, I’m thinking of hibernating the Monday after Pascha. Maybe even Tuesday if I can get away with it.

For all, be safe and be prepared. Remember, keep your friends and family close and your things where you can find them in the dark. Onwards.

Lightning Tales: An Oddity

Can’t remember if I shared this or not, so if a repeat, enjoy!

A few days ago, the wonderful Leslie Eastman at Legal Insurrection tagged me on a story about a lightning strike victim in Australia. This lady had her eyes change color after the strike. The article also talked about others who had changes to eye color and even improvement in eyesight after a strike.

It was not something I had even thought to check, nor had I noticed much as I am not given to staring long and soulfully into my own eyes in the mirror. So, I went and checked. Now, my eyes were half brown and half green, growing more green over time. Now, my eyes are half brown, maybe a bit more brown, and what was green is now blue. Fascinating.

Not sure what if anything it means, but it is interesting. Just thought I would share.

Plotting Services

Since at least one person was interested in learning more about my “homework,” here’s a bit of what I am doing most Friday’s these days.

Have you ever wondered how your priest/preacher/etc. comes up with the scriptures and topics to be covered each Sunday (or other day of service)? Unless you are in a one church Church, it is not random. I’ve been learning a lot more about this after asking question about how did we know what verses to read between the beatitudes in a service?

For some denominations (primarily Protestant), the Church headquarters sends out a guide that details what is to be done over the year. There may or may not be some flexibility, and it may or may not be super detailed. That depends on the denomination.

For more traditional Churches, however, it is a bit more complex. There is a liturgical year (most Christian denominations follow such), with distinct periods, and things are done in accordance with it. Now, also keep in mind that traditional Churches have special services, and that services will often vary depending on what day of the week they occur. Clear as mud? Okay.

Let’s look at it this way. There are some very special days in Christianity. Some fall on the same date each year, like Christmas. Christmas can be any day of the week, and over time it will be, though it always is December 25. Other days are called moveable feasts, and while they always occur on a Sunday, they can be any date within a certain range. Pascha (Easter) is one such. On the latter, some Churches say it will always be the X Sunday of a month or such. Others actually do calculations (which include the lunar cycle) to determine what Sunday is chosen. All that is far beyond me, but it is something to consider.

So, you have your major feasts, minor feasts, and some other things to think about. You have to look at what day of the week things fall, and a few other considerations when determining the level of service and what is done. How do you plot out the service, and know what scriptures are to be read, verses read, etc?

Well, it is both simple and complicated. Larger Churches and such have dedicated staff who work on this. Smaller Churches, not so much. So, I’m learning how to do it, at least from the perspective of a Chanter or Reader.

The simple part is that each year, a book is published that looks at the calendar for the upcoming year and details what type of service happens each day (or at least most days), and within that you can find what readings are to take place. Mostly. Yes, it will tell you the readings for the reader. It will also tell you where to find other readings, such as what is read between the beatitudes. Yes, it tells you which book you go to for the readings.

Right now, I’ve bought about a dozen books to do this work. Some books have several volumes, some are one volume, and I’m thankful I don’t have to buy some of the reference books as one “book” is twelve volumes and costs between $1,000 and $2,400. There are several reasons I work on this at the Church on Fridays, one being access to such volumes if and as needed.

It’s not just the verses and such you find out this way. Keep in mind that there are different types and levels of service. The same liturgy can have different forms and content based on the level of service. Let’s face it, Christmas is going to be a bigger service than a Tuesday afternoon small feast day. What level of service is one of those things marked in that book that is published each year detailing that year.

Also, keep in mind that in traditional Churches, you also have Vespers and Matins that go with each Sunday service, and there are often special Vespers and other services during the week.

My Fridays are spent doing the following. First, I get the basic information down on the upcoming Sunday service. What level of service is it, is it a feast and for whom, what Tone is used for it, etc. Then, I make a note of the Reader readings, the Gospel, and other major items.

My next task is to then plot out who does what and when for the Vespers, Matins, and then the Liturgy. This means noting all changing verses and wordings; if we do a special response instead of the regular for any reason, etc. It ends up several pages in a notebook, which is my reference and backup during the services. Right now, doing just this takes several hours. I’m told that will get better and that at some point I will be able to add in special services and such.

Here are some of the books I work with on this. Let me note that I am not Russian Orthodox; but, many Eastern Orthodox Churches follow the same order of service so we use their books. I’ve also been annotating my copy of the Horologion to match the Church copy. The latter is quite old and having a copy that matches all the notes, singing notes, and other items in it seems like a good idea to me. That’s taken a couple of days. For a better idea of the liturgical year and books involved, here’s the first in a series of lessons in liturgics that gets into that:

My simple question lead to much more than I ever expected. That said, this is a great way to understand the services and learn the different types and forms of liturgy. This is good for me as a person, and for any work I do at the Church. Who knows where it may lead. Meantime, if our Music Director is out sick again, I can make sure we know what verses to chant or sing if needed.

Hope you enjoyed this tour of my “homework” I’ve been doing. I won’t say it’s “fun” yet, but it is interesting and I’m glad to be able to learn about it. More soon.

SQT: Vladimir And The Russian Threat

Okay, I promised the other day to talk a bit about the threat/non-threat of Russia. My problem with a lot of the talk going on right now, particularly in both media and pundit/influencer talk has to do with an imprecision of language.

Far too many are simply saying that Russia is not a future threat to Eastern or Western Europe (or anyone else) without specifying what they mean. I want to posit some food for thought in response.

From the start of the invasion, I’ve held an awkward position. I’ve wanted Russia stopped, but have also held firm to the idea that we did not want and should not want escalation. Which is a bit of a contradiction, at least on the surface for those approaching this with a Western viewpoint.

Also as pointed out over a number of years, the roots to this go back literally more than a thousand years. The work of Kamil Galeev that I have linked to in many posts explore the historical, philosophical, and memetic sources of this. Fact is, no, Russians do not think like us, do not analyze within the same conceptual framework, and do not respond with the same cultural mores and patterns. They are a different culture, with a different history, and different mores and cultural norms. To expect them to respond as we would is the height of stupidity, and far too many Western (U.S. cough) politicians and bureaucrats are extremely stupid in this respect.

They, and far too many others who should (and do) know better dismiss Russkiy Mir as of no importance. Trust me, it is of great importance and it is taken seriously. Keep in mind that in some respects, Navalny was even more nationalistic and serious supporter of Russkiy Mir than Vladimir. Russia World is a real concept within Russian leadership and they did not spend months/years and money on developing it on a whim. It is a real and very large factor in all they do. To understand it is to understand much of their long-term plans and thinking.

In that regard, Russia is an ongoing threat to the world. Not just the Baltic. Not just Eastern Europe. The World.

It is why my stance on Ukraine was awkward to some. I tried to hammer home the point that Russia must be stopped, and the threat negated; but, we should not escalate to a full-scale war. I pointed out many times that if the usual politics and peace-at-any-price took place and Russian plans/ambitions not addressed, the next time (and there will be a next time) would be far worse. The fact that we now know the Biden Regency was up to their necks in a proxy war that they helped provoke while pretending otherwise really doesn’t change that fact.

Which is why I am watching the Trump efforts at peace rather carefully. If long-term plans and ambitions are not short circuited, any peace won’t last. I will note that short-circuited does not necessarily mean a confrontation over them with threats and prohibitions. It can and should mean finding ways to indirectly negate such. Trump has been a master at this in other areas, so I am semi-hopeful in this case. We must wait and see.

I still say we squandered some amazing opportunities to change the relationship with Russia back during the Clinton years, simply because no one of any status within that admin truly understood the Russians or even tried to understand them. The Obama administration simply continued that forward, and frankly W and his people were not much better.

So, unless Russkiy Mir is acknowledged and dealt with, yes, Russia will be a threat going forward.

Now, where they are not a threat currently is militarily. The great stockpiles are a rusting joke and Russia has had to turn to others to supply them with ammunition, drones, and more. The Russian Army is not a first world Army and while our own forces are not what they should be (and many European militaries are a joke), I don’t see Russia currently as being a credible threat to Europe in a conventional sense. Again, see previous discussion on this topic.

In terms of nuclear threat, I remain in the camp of twenty percent. If twenty percent of the nuclear systems of either side work, I would be surprised. Don’t want to find out for sure, but…

Now, if given a chance to clean things up, rearm, train, etc. that can change. It can, in fact, change rather rapidly (look at what Pete is doing here). It can also change because far too many Western companies are supplying Russia with chips, machines, and more to do just that — and have been since the war started. Again, we’ve discussed this before in past posts.

So, short-term military threat: no. Long-term threat: yes. Is Vladimir/Russia going to play nice now given alternatives and ambitions: no. Is anyone expecting Vladimir/Russia to roll over and play nice just because stupid: yes.

Trump is used to working out deals that leave people satisfied. That allow them to build and grow. He’s used that fairly well in various efforts and treaties. If anyone can find a way to get the parties to a table, and deal not just with the short-term, but the long-term issues (including cultural differences) as well, it’s him. It won’t be easy, but I’m going to wait and see what happens.

Meantime, keep in mind what I’ve said above as you read the pundits, influences, and grifters. Also keep in mind that some of the imprecision of language is deliberate on their part. Understand the reality of threat/non-threat and what is going on right now. Ware those who make their money off the current situation, and pay attention to what is not being discussed. Noting the latter will oft tell you far more than what is being said. Just a thought to share.