Okay, I promised the other day to talk a bit about the threat/non-threat of Russia. My problem with a lot of the talk going on right now, particularly in both media and pundit/influencer talk has to do with an imprecision of language.
Far too many are simply saying that Russia is not a future threat to Eastern or Western Europe (or anyone else) without specifying what they mean. I want to posit some food for thought in response.
From the start of the invasion, I’ve held an awkward position. I’ve wanted Russia stopped, but have also held firm to the idea that we did not want and should not want escalation. Which is a bit of a contradiction, at least on the surface for those approaching this with a Western viewpoint.
Also as pointed out over a number of years, the roots to this go back literally more than a thousand years. The work of Kamil Galeev that I have linked to in many posts explore the historical, philosophical, and memetic sources of this. Fact is, no, Russians do not think like us, do not analyze within the same conceptual framework, and do not respond with the same cultural mores and patterns. They are a different culture, with a different history, and different mores and cultural norms. To expect them to respond as we would is the height of stupidity, and far too many Western (U.S. cough) politicians and bureaucrats are extremely stupid in this respect.
They, and far too many others who should (and do) know better dismiss Russkiy Mir as of no importance. Trust me, it is of great importance and it is taken seriously. Keep in mind that in some respects, Navalny was even more nationalistic and serious supporter of Russkiy Mir than Vladimir. Russia World is a real concept within Russian leadership and they did not spend months/years and money on developing it on a whim. It is a real and very large factor in all they do. To understand it is to understand much of their long-term plans and thinking.
In that regard, Russia is an ongoing threat to the world. Not just the Baltic. Not just Eastern Europe. The World.
It is why my stance on Ukraine was awkward to some. I tried to hammer home the point that Russia must be stopped, and the threat negated; but, we should not escalate to a full-scale war. I pointed out many times that if the usual politics and peace-at-any-price took place and Russian plans/ambitions not addressed, the next time (and there will be a next time) would be far worse. The fact that we now know the Biden Regency was up to their necks in a proxy war that they helped provoke while pretending otherwise really doesn’t change that fact.
Which is why I am watching the Trump efforts at peace rather carefully. If long-term plans and ambitions are not short circuited, any peace won’t last. I will note that short-circuited does not necessarily mean a confrontation over them with threats and prohibitions. It can and should mean finding ways to indirectly negate such. Trump has been a master at this in other areas, so I am semi-hopeful in this case. We must wait and see.
I still say we squandered some amazing opportunities to change the relationship with Russia back during the Clinton years, simply because no one of any status within that admin truly understood the Russians or even tried to understand them. The Obama administration simply continued that forward, and frankly W and his people were not much better.
So, unless Russkiy Mir is acknowledged and dealt with, yes, Russia will be a threat going forward.
Now, where they are not a threat currently is militarily. The great stockpiles are a rusting joke and Russia has had to turn to others to supply them with ammunition, drones, and more. The Russian Army is not a first world Army and while our own forces are not what they should be (and many European militaries are a joke), I don’t see Russia currently as being a credible threat to Europe in a conventional sense. Again, see previous discussion on this topic.
In terms of nuclear threat, I remain in the camp of twenty percent. If twenty percent of the nuclear systems of either side work, I would be surprised. Don’t want to find out for sure, but…
Now, if given a chance to clean things up, rearm, train, etc. that can change. It can, in fact, change rather rapidly (look at what Pete is doing here). It can also change because far too many Western companies are supplying Russia with chips, machines, and more to do just that — and have been since the war started. Again, we’ve discussed this before in past posts.
So, short-term military threat: no. Long-term threat: yes. Is Vladimir/Russia going to play nice now given alternatives and ambitions: no. Is anyone expecting Vladimir/Russia to roll over and play nice just because stupid: yes.
Trump is used to working out deals that leave people satisfied. That allow them to build and grow. He’s used that fairly well in various efforts and treaties. If anyone can find a way to get the parties to a table, and deal not just with the short-term, but the long-term issues (including cultural differences) as well, it’s him. It won’t be easy, but I’m going to wait and see what happens.
Meantime, keep in mind what I’ve said above as you read the pundits, influences, and grifters. Also keep in mind that some of the imprecision of language is deliberate on their part. Understand the reality of threat/non-threat and what is going on right now. Ware those who make their money off the current situation, and pay attention to what is not being discussed. Noting the latter will oft tell you far more than what is being said. Just a thought to share.
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This is totally insane. After losing probably close to a million troops, most of their navy and tons of tanks/artillary, who is Russia going to attack? And with what?
Interesting piece and thank you.
Correct, the Russians do not think like us. They are not the eastern-most Western country on the globe, they are rather the western-most Eastern country. The Russian mindset is much more East than West. They are not like us, they are Eastern with a western veneer, and we must learn and accept that. It’s indicative of the training of Western elites that they so readily ignore what is a simple truth.
With this in mind, Ukraine, the Baltics, and Poland have a problem: they are the jelly in the sandwich made by the West and East. Each is a classic ‘buffer state’; they exist in the middle and need to humor both sides. That is not easy to do. Ukraine has not been independent until recently and has not figured out the whole governance thing; Poland and the Baltics are better but the Poles are not well loved in the West (the troubles they have in the EU today reflect their past troubles), and the Balts are too small to survive on their own.
“Russkiy Mir” is both offensive and defensive: the Russians want to grab everything that’s close-by, and they become very worried when either the West or China encroaches on these expanded borders. In this regard Stalin was a classic Russian: better to push the effective border to the Elbe than have it sitting anywhere close to Pskov. There are people who point out that Mr. Putin expressly warned NATO to stay out of Ukraine; this fits well the defensive paranoia Russia has about an expansionist EU.
So yes, Mr. Trump has his work cut out for him, and he’ll likely fail because the EU elites simply will not allow him to succeed. The times are going to become more interesting.
Ironically (or perhaps not), mirror-imaging, in which we assume the other party will act the way we would in the same circumstances, is one of the first things intelligence analysts are taught to avoid. Yet we see it all the time, including in what former senior officials say and interviews and in what members of the Intelligence Community leak to the media for publication. It’s also very common in “scholarly” works by people who allegedly study other cultures.
It’s not just that the politicians are stupid. So are many of the people advising them (who, as you might expect, are also full of impressive-sounding Ivy League credentials that don’t correlate with fine education and discerning perception and analysis in the way they think they do).
Understanding Alien Intelligence is hard work. I mean, c’mon, Poles upgrade their rail-gauges, Russkies freak out? That’s crazy talk!
Yet we both understand Chinese Nukes. Crystal. Let’s start there.
B
“Poles upgrade their rail-gauges, Russkies freak out”
The freak out dates back to the Soviets. One factor slowing down the German invasion in WW2 was the need to switch gauges for transport, which meant transshipping supplies.
Soviets deliberately chose a different gauge because they were always under the apprehension that they were about to be invaded. Which goes for all their subject states as well.
Switching to the gauge used by NATO nations would be seen both as an indication of allegiance and also as helping the “NATO invasion” to get closer to their borders with supplies.
Also, a better railroad on a route leading to Russia means invaders could run more supplies in.
The English had a lot of trouble supplying stuff to the Russians from the Mediterranean in WW2 since there was one crappy railroad. It was kept crappy because the Russians thought the Turks(!) could use it to invade.
Which meant the supplies mostly had to be convoyed via the Baltic route instead. Many more sailors died, and less supplies got through, to satisfy the Russian fears.
M
Sounds like we had good history teachers … and/or fathers in theatre.
B
The Russian Army is pitiful when compared to the US, but the US Army isnt in Eastern Europe in any numbers. We have the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Germany, the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Italy, and one or two rotational Brigade Combat Teams in the Baltics or Eastern Europe. So about a Division’s worth of combat power.
Does that mean the Russians can take over Europe. Nope, the Ukrainians have demonstrated the weaknesses of the Russians. Does it mean they arent a threat? Again, nope. They are good enough to invade and hold border regions, and likely can maintian that position for years. Think 30 Years War.
Armed stalemate. Until one side or the other cannot maintain. Exhaustion. Coming to a country near you soon.