I had really intended to write about the dangers of the civil war certain progressive elements are pushing (as I mentioned here yesterday; and I think Sarah is both very wrong and somewhat right here and Tom Knighton hits many of the points I want to raise), a chance exchange on X this morning with The Diplomad has pushed me to expand on some previous work.
If you are one of those who doesn’t remember the Blogosphere of old, and did not read The Diplomad, you truly missed out. He is posting far more on X these days than on his blog, but I have always found his work to be insightful, well-reasoned, and a pleasure to read. He is one of those wonderful people that even when you don’t agree with him, you are moved to think and consider all he has to say. Oh, and you also really should read of some of his adventures in interesting places working for State.
This morning, he was kind enough to make a one-word comment in response to a comment I had made to a post of his. This has led to an exchange where it turns out we are on the same page as to the need for a bulwark in Eastern Europe to contain a fallen Europe and to defend against other incursions along the old Muslim invasion routes.
I’ve talked a bit about this before (here for a start, several linked posts within for those interested). If I were one of those well-dressed apparatchiks in DC, I would already have a catchy name with logo and full marketing for this concept. Seems that is what sells and gets things considered in DC; but, I’ve been thinking a good bit more on issues of substance instead of marketing. Right now, I want to lay out my current thoughts in the hope that I might entice The Diplomad into sharing some of his.
Background: England has already fallen and even if every Labor/Torrie is voted out today I fear it is too late to save. I’ve written about this in previous posts, and see no way England as we used to know it survives given demographics. Even if they do mass deportations, it will get bloody and what comes out will not the be England we knew, but something else. France is in much the same boat with many of the same political calculations on the part of ruling politicians. Germany has committed economic and demographic suicide and is fighting being given the political equivalent of narcan by its citizens. Switzerland is iffy, though I have not discussed it before. I am worried about Spain, but would invite The Diplomad’s thoughts as he is the expert there. Italy could still save itself but is hamstrung by local bureaucracies and the EU. The Netherlands could hold out for a bit, but demographics alone will see it swamped fairly quickly. Belgium is pretty much lost already. I could go on, but that covers major and some minor players. For one take on the Muslim conquest of Europe, check out Tom Kratman’s book Caliphate. No, I don’t get anything if you buy the book, other than satisfaction. I can see something like this within the next 20 years.
Background II: Per previous posts, NATO is committing suicide at the behest of the EU bureaucracy, which is primarily the WEF progressive crowd. There is already strong sentiment within the U.S., including within defense circles, to withdraw from NATO. I support this, which may or may not bias my analysis to some degree. NATO was valid and necessary for many years; however, it has outlived its usefulness and has become a strategic and economic liability to the U.S. Given that the EU is twisting things to engage treaty obligations against our own interest (and that of the EU members IMO), we need to look at our participation.
Background III: For all this came out of a discussion of a “New NATO” what I am proposing should not be a military alliance. Rather, it should be an economic and civilizational alliance that focuses on unleashing the intellectual, technical/scientific, and skills-based resources within a framework of Classical Western thought and processes with a focus on individual liberty. Much like the U.S. was originally founded. Within that, there should be a component to help the member countries to develop and field the ability to defend themselves against any incursions from West or East.
Personally, I see Poland as the linchpin for this effort. I admit, I have a soft spot for them given their role in ending the godless authority that was the USSR, as well as other anti-communist efforts. They have had the political resolve to stand up to the EU bureaucrats, which speaks highly of them. Geographically, they are in a unique position: it can either be a highway for invasions or a block against same. It has been both at different times in the past. Ports on the Baltic allow some Sea Lines Of Communication (SLOC), which is essential for trade. Yes, those can be compromised (see Larry Bond’s book Cauldron for a fairly thorough analysis of such, and no I don’t get anything if you buy it) but real trade depends on shipping, and they do have the ports needed. It has produced numerous scientists, engineers, composers, and more over the centuries. It also has a fair bit of resources.
To go back to the ports for a moment, those also have another use in this context. We really don’t want England and France’s nukes falling into the hands of a new Caliphate. I hope (possibly against hope) that we have already drawn up plans and are working to plant the seeds that when things go fully south in England that we can get their nukes out. Part of this should be encouraging truly loyal members of the RN to either bring them to us (not likely currently) or to a fairly neutral third party. Poland and it’s ports fit that bill. Same holds true for France. Air bases in Poland could accept flights carrying weapons to safety. As for people flying to safety, I would recommend extreme vetting and not allowing any such refuges citizenship or voting status for about three generations. Finally, when I proposed that if any member of this new alliance needed to be made nuclear to deal with nuclear threats, I recommended Poland in part because that is not something they want or desire. If you don’t get why that is important, think on it a bit and look at those countries openly seeking nukes as you do so.
In the center there is Hungary. A beautiful country with a rich heritage that has also stood up to the EU bureaucrats as well as to past Muslim invasions. While it does not have seaports, it does have extensive river ports and operations that link it with several of its neighbors. River traffic is still a much larger component of trade than many still realize. There have been some criticisms raised in regards their relationship with Russia; but, I think some of those are misplaced and most else can be dealt with in the course of creating the alliance.
Next is Romania. It has seaports, river ports, rich resources and a lot of good people. It’s navy may be small by some standards, but those within it are proud and professional. If it can remain free (and keep in mind the EU vacated their elections when they didn’t like the results) they have everything they need to become a powerhouse, possibly even on the world stage. They have not resisted the EU bureaucracy as well as Poland or Hungary, but have blocked a number of things. Creating an alliance of which they are a part could give them what they need to take themselves where they want to go.
Next is Bulgaria. Mountainous enough to prevent extensive river traffic (and many north-south rail lines), but it also has ports on the Black Sea. It sits astride many of the invasion routes used by Muslim armies in the past, which has kept it from the development experienced by more peaceful lands. Again, a lot of potential here that could be developed by the Bulgarians if they were part of such an alliance. More on that later perhaps.
Now, to the west of Romania and Bulgaria are Serbia and the Balkans. These too are potential candidates for such an alliance, I would note that bringing them in not only provides strategic depth, but additional SLOC options for trade and defense. If Italy doesn’t fall, it would allow the Adriatic to be a secure trade zone both between alliance members and potential overseas partners and customers.
Going back to Larry Bond’s novel Cauldron and to Kratman’s Caliphate, it would be nice if Spain could hold as it would make the Straights of Gibraltar less of a choke point for international trade. I would also note that if Denmark were smart, it would make any trade or sale of Greenland contingent upon support to resist a European Caliphate. For all that Denmark has shown some awareness of the problem, they have not taken it seriously nor posed any real resistance to the EU bureaucrats. If Denmark falls, the Skagerrak is at best “iffy” for trade; and, if Sweden falls it will close it to effective traffic.
Frankly, I see Sweden as 50/50 on whether it falls or not. The politicians and public seem to want to deal with the migration issues; but, the super-woke bureaucracy is dug into the body politic like a disease-laden tick. Digging that out and making real change will take more than many are willing to give I think. That said, it could be yet another reason to try to get them into such an alliance.
I would also consider the Baltic states as potential members, though they are a good part of the reason I think this should not be a military alliance. Members can make self-defense treaties between themselves, but should not be able to make treaties that obligate others. The purpose behind the alliance is to promote economic growth, which will allow them to defend themselves as they see fit. Pushing economic and individual liberty is a key part of this, as such always results in growth at many levels.
Finally, such an alliance should look at Finland. Ports, resources, and a lot more. It would also help secure the Baltic, and prevent a European Calipahte from being able to do as much via sea power, economic or military. There are also some other financial factors, but we may explore those another day.
As I’ve typed, I’ve had the idea for a name for this initiative to pop into my head: the Free Europe Initiative. Encouraging economic and other growth while advancing the concepts of freedom and individual liberty that are the bedrock of Western Civilization would provide not just a light for continental Europe, but potentially to the whole world. In a world gone mad, such will be much needed.
Just the rough outline for now. I’ve got some other thoughts already in place, but this needs more fleshing out. More soon I hope.
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