Iran has been a powder keg for a while now, and I’m truly surprised efforts to end the rule of the mad mullahs didn’t kick off a year or so ago. So I was unsurprised when things did start to blow up and an effort begun to bring back a return of the Shah. Sadly, I now think that may fail and do so because the President did not keep his word. This has implications far beyond Iran as well.
First, let me state yet again that I do not believe we should put boots on the ground. While it would be great to get rid of the mullahs, it is something that has to come from inside, and there are hundreds of thousands who have taken to the street — and tens of thousands who have died. Our support of that needs to be logistical and via eliminating certain infrastructure, preventing troop movements, and related.
Someone is already doing that, on a limited scale, and I have an idea who is doing it. That said, more is needed and we can do such via airpower. Some very good thoughts are over at The Lawdog Files here, here, and here. Think I linked to them before, but doing so again as they are good reads. But, again, and again, and again: freedom can’t be brought in or imposed from the outside via boots on the ground, it has to come from the inside.
Thing is, President Trump told the Iranian public that he had their back, to take to the streets and if the regime tried or started to kill them, he would strike. That was weeks ago and as I said before, the deaths appear now to be in the tens of thousands. Machine guns and more are being used; militia from Iraq have been brought in to help control certain regions; and, Arabic troops/mercs have also been brought in. The revolution is now in danger of failing, at least in my opinion.
Something to consider is this: at the start, when Trump first called for them to take to the streets, America was in a good position both to help and to have a very good relationship with the Shah and others in the new government. Now, we do not and will not enjoy such as the people are remembering that America’s word really isn’t worth much in the Middle East. As the blood flows thicker and deeper, the willingness to trust and work with the U.S. is dropping. If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.
Worse, right now the mullahs feel emboldened because Trump/the U.S. hasn’t kept it’s word. They see the desire to negotiate as weakness. If the revolution fails and all they see are games being played with drone tracks, they are going to take that as a go signal to speed up efforts to restore nuclear development and go nuclear, as well as to go all in on terrorism by proxy. The downsides are severe, and the damage to the reputation of both Trump and the U.S. can’t be overstated. It will likely end effective foreign policy for this administration.
I have suspicions as to what has been going on, and I truly hope that Qatar does not have its hooks into certain members of the administration. Sadly, there is a lot of damage done right now regardless of the source. A promise was made, a red line set, and nothing done when the mullahs gleefully crossed it. There is still time, but a lot of damage has been done and it will take more than words to undo it.
What is happening is an unforced error on the part of the administration. One that has serious implications for stability and peace in several parts of the world. If the mullahs fall, it changes the calculus on Russia/Ukraine, it cuts a number of nasty terrorist groups off from major funding and operational assistant (and remember some of them were operating out of Venezuela), and it ends one of the most serious nuclear threats out there. If they don’t fall, and we don’t act, all of that gets put on steroids and we will be lucky if it only redoubles.
Not words I thought I would be writing when this started, but words that need to be said. I think Trump is getting some very bad advice and I have questions about the intel he is getting on operations and the numbers of Iranians killed by the mullahs. It would have been far better if he had kept his mouth shut and not made a promise he wasn’t going to keep. There is still time to turn things around, but it is fast running out.
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If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.
Sadly, the countries pushing “to help” would be tearing down any Iranian government that was put up with a significant amount of our help. That’s one reason, as you say, that the Iranians have to do it themselves.
And, yes, I’m pissed that Trump didn’t follow through. He could take out nuclear facilities from thousands of miles away, but couldn’t hit the IRGC barracks and headquarters? He couldn’t drop in loads of guns and ammo and comms gear? Heck, just blowing up Houthis and such would probably have a noticeable effect on the mullahs’ control. The Starlink maneuver helped some. Then it just dropped out of sight again.
Yep. While I’m not in direct contact with any group or groups trying to overthrow the mullahs, I have been observing and monitoring for a while now. There’s quite a history to be written on those efforts over the years, from the dhimmitude of the peanut, to reason for optimism under Reagan, and then quite a mush, to Obama doing all he could to prop up the mullahs. I will simply note that any discussion of efforts to remove the mullahs was not well received in DC (or at least certain circles thereof). And that’s a bit of understatement. We finally have a chance, and are busy blowing it. Give thanks that at least one party is acting, even if covert and on a limited scale as they dealt the mullahs some major blows a few days ago. Pity they are not being given the chance to act more fully, and we are not acting on our promise. We could have prevented much, and even without dropping in Liberator payloads given Iranians a fighting chance.