COVID-19 precautions – The Laughing Wolf

COVID-19 17Apr20

Beyond the guidelines on ending this flippin lockdown, there is a fair bit of news and even some good news. Let’s start with the good news.

First, the clinical trial of Remdesivir, from Gilead, has proven successful. You can read more here.

Second, a trial of Pluristem Theraputics, Inc.’s allogenic placental expanded (PLX) cells is now underway in the U.S. Seven patients at high risk of death in Israel were treated with it, and all survived. It is worth noting that the treatment may suppress or reverse the over-activation of the immune system that appears to be the cause of death in a number of victims.

While the study is from China (trust nothing, verify the everliving out of it), it is safe to go outside and stay there. You are far more likely to get it, and for multiple infections to occur if you are inside. I will echo a number of others who said ‘No duh, closing parks, beaches, etc. was fracking stupid’ and I will add that it was done by power hungry fascists who need to be removed from office ASAP.

In potentially good news, the CDC is looking at the universal testing results from a men’s shelter in Boston. A small number of positives led to the decision to do a universal test, which resulted in 146 of 397 people tested being confirmed as infected — and none of the 146 were symptomatic. Seriously, go read this as it turns a lot of the CDC/NIAIC/Etc. assumptions on their head. False assumptions lead to bad guidelines and operations. Correcting that is imperative, for both biomedical and political reasons.

In more neutral news, it appears that obesity may significantly increase your chance of becoming severely ill with COVID-19, particularly in younger to middle-aged people. I will be interested in watching to see what linkage this has with the reports that glucose metabolism (and diabetes) may play an important part in that over-stimulation of the immune system (cytokine storms) mentioned earlier. Certain types of diabetes are often linked to obesity. If COVID-19 and certain flus are indeed causing deaths by cytokine storms, understanding the mechanism is crucial to countering.

Again, it will be at least a year before we have the data and answers we need. A lot of good research has begun, and preliminary studies are not only helping shape treatment (and response), but are identifying and refining areas of future research and development. May I highly suggest not trusting media reports on the research: it is often flat out (deliberately in some cases) wrong, as I pointed out yesterday. Go to the papers, read the abstract, and on short papers take the time to read the entire publication. It is well worth the time.

I will also say that the continued war on Hydroxychloroquin is disgusting at best. The people behind this, and who actively push it, are doing a tremendous disservice and frankly should be held accountable for it. They would literally, not figuratively, rather people die than to admit that it has been shown to be effective in a number of cases. They continue to ignore as much as possible that an American study, the results of which were presented to the CDC in 2005 (link in previous updates), showed that it was effective against ALL covids. This active bit of stupidity needs to have legal consequences, as well as social.

In conclusion, don’t let the MSM wind you up or be your main source of info. When it comes to false information, they lead the pack.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 16Apr20

Yes, I took a few days off. First, most of the news on COVID-19, aka Winnie the Flu/Xi Flu/Chinese Flu/etc., was political in nature rather than science based. Second, a lot of the more learned discussion had to do with models, and much of the really good discussions on that would be “inside baseball” to most people. Short version remains, however, that the prime model used for policy is seriously flawed and even with corrections is not yet close to reality. Until it is, it should not be used for policy decisions in my opinion. Third, I needed a break and got some other things done.

Before I get to the main topic for today, two quick notes. It is good to see that what was previously taboo is now going mainstream. Back two months ago, if you talked about the safety problems at both labs in Wuhan and even appeared to entertain the idea it could have been a lab accident, you were guilty of spreading false information and could be deplatformed. I’m glad several of us did, and even more glad to see some more open discussion of those problems and the possibility this started in a lab.

This article asks another taboo question that needs full and honest discussion. Given that the Chinese economy is brittle and was already in trouble; and, that Xi seized the opportunity to expand monitoring even as troublesome people were disappeared and various cleansings expanded, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Xi decided to level the world economic field a bit and make the most of it.

The main topic for today, however, is a study being breathlessly touted in the media for saying it is futile to develop a vaccine (and with some other slams). No, no it does not say that vaccine research is futile. Not unless you selectively edit the quote.

“Based on the close relationship of SARS-CoV-2 to SARS, current vaccine and drug development for SARS-CoV-2 has also focused on the S protein and its human binding receptor ACE2 (7, 24). Thus, the observation in this study raised the alarm that SARS290 CoV-2 mutation with varied epitope profile could arise at any time, which means current vaccine development against SARS-CoV-2 is at great risk of becoming futile. “

Let’s break this down and take on some of the media talking points.

Point 1: Until it is peer reviewed, and other studies confirm (or refute) it’s findings, I don’t trust it. Number of reasons, including that early studies can be like early reporting: full of errors and sensationalism.

Point 2: A finding of the study is that a mutation of COVID-19 has been found in India. That mutation, if you go to line 282 in the paper, actually makes that version less infectious as it reduces the ability to bind to ACE2 receptors. Did you get that? The mutation is less infectious, not more.

Point 3: Unlike some other covids and other viruses, the rate of mutation in COVID-19 is slow. If you go to line 229, this paper confirms that and even goes so far as to note “A relatively stable genome of SARS-CoV-2 is a good indication for the epidemic control, as less mutation raises the hope of the rapid development of validate vaccine and antiviral drugs.” Hardly the breathless gloom and doom implied by various headlines and discussion.

Point 4: Going back to the discussion above, changes in the S protein may make vaccine development targeted to that protein (and the related ACE2 binding) futile. Not all vaccines, just that target.

There are some other interesting points in the paper, but again it has to be taken with caution for now. As other studies replicate or provide information, a better assessment can be made.

As I discussed in a previous update that discussed structure-based drug design, viruses mutate. It’s a given. Some mutate slowly, some like an ADD squirrel in a field of nuts. Some mutations make the virus easier to catch, some make it more deadly, others can change receptors, symptoms, and more.

The fact is, however, that quite a few of those mutations are evolutionary dead-ends. Too deadly, and people die before they can transmit it. Less infectious (as seems to be the case discussed here), again, it is a strain that could die out well before others.

The key to vaccine development for fast mutations is to find targets that don’t change, because when those change that strain dies out. There are always such targets, the trick is finding them and finding ways to target them.

In conclusion, don’t let the MSM wind you up or be your main source of info. When it comes to false information, they lead the pack.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 10Apr20

A while back, I linked to an article about the CDC shutting down a number of lab tests that were faster and better than their own. This morning, there was secondary confirmation of that story.

When we look back on this event, the initial botched response by the CDC, and the absolute failure of testing coming from the actions of the CDC and FDA, should rightly take center stage. Testing is essential to identify, to develop treatments, and to limit the spread. To this day, the FDA and CDC continue to erect stonewall after stonewall to efforts to that would end this ordeal.

In my book, the failure of testing — and to get us the millions of tests we need both for the disease and for the antibodies — is the single largest failure of the response. With proper testing, you can scale responses to an appropriate degree for the situation, instead of slamming a “one size fits all” approach to the situation. With proper testing, you can clear those who are immune to return to work, along with those who are not a major risk. With proper testing and reporting, you can get critical supplies to where they are needed most, and even get them there ahead of the time of most urgent need.

Yet, bureaucratic roadblocks keep getting raised to effective, efficient, and desperately needed testing. It truly begs a question: Why?

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’ve been off work without pay since 27 Mar.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 9Apr20

Rather than get into all of the sturm un drang of the ongoing wars over data, who is counted as a casualty, and other fun stuff, I’m increasingly reminded of something that happened many years ago with another computer model. It brought home to me that models are only as good as the assumptions and data that go in, and on the competence of the person or persons developing the model.

Back in a galaxy far, far, away — wait, wrong intro. Back in the bad old days of Ronald Maximus Reagan, the left was in full fury (nothing’s changed, has it?) railing against him and his efforts to restore our military. Some scientists did a study, and created a model, showing that a nuclear exchange (which while possible, was not as probable as they made out) would cause a “nuclear winter.” A new, radioactive ice age that would doom the few poor survivors of the exchange. Lot of controversy, lots of distortion of the work, and thankfully lots of push back.

To cut short the timeline a bit, I was talking a few years later with a modeling and simulation expert at Argonne National Labs who worked with their “holo deck” (not the official name, but the highly unofficial one most people used) system. This 3-D imaging system was extremely realistic, and if you were in it on one particular scenario, they reminded you that if you started to feel motion sick, close your eyes — yes, it was that realistic. It was also amusing to watch a group inside it all swaying in unison as it was running…

We got to talking models, and the nuclear winter model came up. Seems that the original model was flawed, to put it mildly. In effect, the original model only had three dimensions (IIRC). The atmosphere was treated as a single mass; the earth was treated as a single mass; and, the nuclear explosions were effectively treated as one event. Not terribly realistic, and not even the weather models of the day were that simplistic.

According to the scientist I was talking with, to start getting realistic results you had to break the atmosphere into (at least) 15 different layers, which means at least 15 more dimensions to the model. By the time that was done and other sections brought up to something approaching reality, nuclear winter became, at worst, nuclear autumn. Not saying a nuclear exchange would be a good thing, but it would not result in the catastrophic weather changes the study touted.

More and more, as we deal with the various models, I’m reminded of the nuclear winter model. When you try to simplify things, or assume that something is simple, you are going to have problems. I wonder what a post-mortem of the models will show, and if this might not be a factor. We will see.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 8Apr20

Good Morning! The real-world data continues to differ significantly from those of the models, in a very positive way. I’m glad the Federal government has released it’s models, as there are reports one or more states are refusing to release their models. For today, I leave the model problems to others. That there are serious problems with the models, and the data, is the point to be made.

On the good news side, there is a promising drug for treating the pneumonia that can come from COVID-19 (as opposed to the virus itself); and, there is a clinical trial of sildenafil to treat COVID-19 underway.

Which brings up a not so nice topic, which is the media and so-called expert war on hydroxychloroquine. I don’t want to link to the story in question, from Axios, both because I don’t think it deserves the linkage and I don’t want to encourage them. I’ve seen similar stories in other outlets, including pretty much all my local media.

On Twitter, I’ve got a bit to say. Short version is that our so-called elite, who have yet to be right on a single major point in regards COVID-19, are slamming the treatment as unproven, claiming most (but not quite all) the studies are flawed, and that the thousands of positive outcomes are “anecdotal.” This despite the American study provided to the CDC in 2005 (previously linked here) showing that it was effective against all coronaviruses.

Instead, they push for new drugs to be developed, following FDA guidelines (and years and millions in development), rather than go with an inexpensive and effective treatment. Interesting, no? Also interesting are the number of state leaders (who seem to share something in common) that have tried to deny or are denying (claim on Twitter that Utah has reserved it to the state and won’t let physicians prescribe it) based on the comments of the so-called elite.

Given that at least one governor has been caught hoarding, one wonders if it not being reserved for the state equivalent of the nomenklatura? The single take away I have is that the media, political leaders who follow the “advice” of the so-called elite, and that failed elite itself would rather see you die than to admit a treatment works because it did not go through all the bureaucratic steps and/or was suggested by Trump.

That same bureaucratic swamp is still busy slowing things down or preventing effective responses. This article on “The Red Tape Nation” is a good read, as is this one on bureaucratic efforts to block making masks in America. Oh, and if you still think China is good, read this. If you don’t like Fox, same basic story is on multiple outlets.

A bit of what I consider good news. Lorraine Maradiaga, who said she was positive for COVID-19, posted threats online to infect as many as she could. She’s been arrested on terrorism charges. Good. She, other like her, and those doing “pranks” of spitting or sneezing on food all should be charged as such. God Bless Texas.

While it is not nice of me, I think anyone doing one of those “pranks” deserves whatever happens to them. If they get a beat-down before police arrive, I’m good with that. Which is why I’m sharing a favorite video:

On a more serious note, Roger L. Simon asks if the White House Press Association enabling communist propaganda. The answer is yes. The more interesting question is why they did it. I guarantee it was for gain, possibly on more than one level. Speaking of the WHPA, this video absolutely nails the behavior of it and its members at every briefing I’ve watched.

Going back to China, I’ve had questions about the virus and its origins. I’ve shared a number of them in previous updates. Today, courtesy of Instapundit, comes a very good question and reasonable theory on the origin. Keep in mind the two papers I’ve linked to in the past saying it was man-made. While there is a lot of debate on those papers, this article brings up a very good point (or three). It ties in strongly with what I’ve said for weeks.

Finally, while I try to keep politics down to a dull roar, I highly, highly urge you to read this take. Then, go back to the links I’ve given to any number of political responses, and where people have put politics (and self-gain) ahead of doing what is right for the Republic. Look at all those who have opposed doing effective and efficient responses, and note one thing they have in common. It is not a pretty picture.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 6Apr20

The word of the day remains data. As in why do we not have more data available. Some of it has long been promised, and is still not out there.

On Twitter, Scott Adams is on a tear over the lack of promised data on equipment. As in who has what PPE, how much is being used, and who doesn’t have it and needs it. That is data that has been promised, but not delivered.

For me, I am looking for data on spread rate as a function of population density; total cases as a function of population density; ICU and ICU/ventilator use as a function of population density (and also broken down by age, sex, and other factors); data on asymptomatic spread including the range of time this occurs given previous estimates ranged from a week to a month; and better data on superspreaders. Among other things.

Right now, it is clear that the IHME-UW model is flawed. Flawed model plus bad data in the beginning means bad choices and actions. Efforts to correct the model are still encountering problems.

But, if we had good data it can be analyzed outside the model for better decisions. When the data is not released, it is not a good sign.

As for why the county-by-county data is needed? That is both how you get plans based on local conditions, and because it is how most quarantine laws are set up: the counties have the authority to act in the best interest of the local community. This gets pointed out by Marco Rubio to a clueless member of the media. The laws, built on practical experience, were put in place because it was known that a one-size-fits-all approach was not good for controlling disease.

The good news of the day is that even with the latest model clearly still flawed, it shows deaths dropping, significantly. There will be two immediate responses to this: mitigation works and we panicked for nothing. Both are wrong, and unhelpful. Frankly, my best guess right now is that both are right. Unless there is yet other data being withheld, it was both less a threat than projected and mitigation does indeed work. Everyone in masks may have worked as well or better, but there is no way to know that for sure.

Do I think we are not being told everything? Yes. Do we need to know all of it? Eventually. We do deserve to have a better understanding of why the decision was made to nuke the economy and damage the Constitution. We also need to take steps to ensure the overreach does not happen again, but to do so in a responsible manner also required this information.

I suspect (hope) there is a lot more going on that we are not being told.

I want to end on a more positive note. Take the time to go read this wonderful, brutal, truthful, and accurate fisking of a Chinese official spouting propaganda. Tim Blair is a master of the fisk, and it shows in this shredding of the narrative. Bravo, Sir. Bravo.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 5Apr20

This didn’t get up yesterday as had to deal with a small cyber attack. To all black-hat hackers, crackers, malware developers, a hearty one finger salute, and I’ve got a suggestion of what you can do with a rusty chain saw too. Wasn’t bad, just took a few hours to run scans and deal with it.

COVID-19 4Apr20

Taking a break today, but wanted to get the daily photo up as I may do a gif of them later. Meantime, enjoy your day. Take a break and get your headspace and timing back.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 3Apr20

Today will be a little different, as frankly there is nothing truly new about COVID-19. We are all watching the numbers, trying to figure out which model is correct while dealing with incomplete, inaccurate, and outright false information. All we can do is hang on and hope for the best. That, and try to figure out what we can given the above. Powerline has some good notes and queries.

Beyond COVID-19, we know two things for sure. China started this, and both it and others are happy to take advantage of our focus on COVID-19.

That this originated in China is beyond doubt. Powerline has a good article here with lots of linky goodness. Legal Insurrection looks at the theory that it did escape from one of the labs in Wuhan. While I maintain my position that it is not a finished bioweapon, I would be very unsurprised to find one of their labs had screwed the pooch, if not ate it, yet again as they have a history of it. Even if not an engineered economic bioweapon, since it is having that result, why not take advantage of it?

China is engaged in a global propaganda campaign trying to both reshape it’s image as doing a good job in response to what was then an epidemic, and to deal with internal issues. Both of those have to do with the need for Xi and the leadership to be beyond reproach, as if they have to be if they are to retain control.

The Chinese people were, and apparently still are from indications, not buying the story. A new massive round of suppression is underway, with even a number of very prominent people being disappeared (wonder if the number of organs available for transplant has gone up as well?). The open contempt I saw a few weeks ago for the leadership caste — even from those in the caste — and for XI was something I never thought would never see in my lifetime.

But, there is more to it. Xi has global dreams, and has seen them rocked by the Trump sanctions and trade deals. Bad enough his bluff was called there, but then came COVID-19 to shake the people’s faith (or at least tolerance) of his rule. While we are focused so intently on our COVID-19 issue, why not take advantage of it?

This piece from the Asia Times showcases what is being done militarily. Now, in addition to that, we have things happening elsewhere in SE Asia, the Middle East, Venezuela, and in Mexico and Central America. On some of it, I will just say that there are swirls in the data. Straws in the wind if you will, but definite efforts by those who wish America ill to also seize this opportunity to get some licks on. Could there be some coordination on all these efforts? I highly suspect so, and suspect there is one player who sees a chance to take advantage and perhaps minimize the damage they have done to themselves. While I am not sure that they want a full-up war, as this article considers, I would be surprised if there is not some form of military incident in the China Sea in the next 7-10 days. I also would only be surprised if we don’t see something in the Caribbean or on the Mexican border soon.

Why? Let’s just say lots of swirls/straws. One thing that struck me on Wednesday at the briefing was the language used. Phrases, particularly certain phrases in government speak, have meaning. One thing that caught my ear and got my full attention, was when the phrase “National Security Threat” was applied to the Mexican (and other) cartels. There was some other discussion, including national intelligence data and how it could not be discussed. On top of the warning to Iran and their proxies, it is clear a lot of things are potentially incoming besides COVID-19. Buckle up kiddies, we could have A Deeper Blue.

Turning back more fully to COVID-19, here’s a good editorial in the Washington Examiner on the failures (complete in my book) of the media. It pairs nicely with this article from the Mises Institute calling for the FDA to be held accountable for the deaths they have caused (even before COVID-19). This NYT opinion piece looks at the possibility that more medical people are dying because they are getting a higher load of the virus. As discussed before, in The Game of Loads and Vectors, a single microbe will do nothing, a sufficient dose will trigger an immune response and make you resistant, a larger load will make you sick, and a higher load will kill you. The question here is how are the medical people getting the viral equivalent of LD50 despite precautions? For those screeching and thumping their chests that they don’t see the word quarantine in the Constitution, here are two very good articles: one at Powerline and one at National Review.

To end the day on a lighter note, a tobacco company says it has a vaccine for COVID-19 in animal testing that is made from tobacco. Who is a good boy? This dog delivering wine is, that’s who. Now, because it will piss off Winnie the Flu, er, Xi…

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 2Apr20

I’ve debated if I should keep doing these or not. As I noted before, I started because I saw a pattern in data, and did not feel that what was happening was getting the attention it deserved. That it also let me talk about practical/rational preparedness, encourage same if things got bad (and they got way worse than I would have thought in those early days), and share good information and links to scientific papers and related information.

The fact is, I can talk about data, trends, and more; but, I’d not be adding much to what you can get at whitehouse.gov/live with the daily updates. Yes, I highly recommend watching them yourself, as you will only get accurate and full information by doing so directly.

What I will tell you is that we still don’t have nearly enough accurate data, enough normalized data, and a truly good understanding on what is going on as some of the data just doesn’t add up. The fact that sites here and abroad that are supposed to be providing data are not doing so does not help. That some have lied from the start and continue to lie does not help. Such handicapped our response. Also, if the Chinese have things under control, why raid another country’s supplies?

Speaking of problems, our so-called elite continue to drop the ball. This article asks if we are asking the right question in regards masks. Then, we see how once again the bureaucrats are making it almost impossible to get more masks from outside the country. Thankfully, people are finding a way to work around the bureaucrats.

Other good news is that Japan has begun clinical trials on Avigan (an anti-flu drug) as a treatment for the Chinese virus. The more effective treatments, the better. There is good news in the treatment world, if I continue to do these posts I may try to focus in on them, and discuss what it will take to develop drugs specifically targeted to COVID-19.

With that, I’m calling it a post.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always: