Taking a break today, but wanted to get the daily photo up as I may do a gif of them later. Meantime, enjoy your day. Take a break and get your headspace and timing back.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
Today will be a little different, as frankly there is nothing truly new about COVID-19. We are all watching the numbers, trying to figure out which model is correct while dealing with incomplete, inaccurate, and outright false information. All we can do is hang on and hope for the best. That, and try to figure out what we can given the above. Powerline has some good notes and queries.
Beyond COVID-19, we know two things for sure. China started this, and both it and others are happy to take advantage of our focus on COVID-19.
China is engaged in a global propaganda campaign trying to both reshape it’s image as doing a good job in response to what was then an epidemic, and to deal with internal issues. Both of those have to do with the need for Xi and the leadership to be beyond reproach, as if they have to be if they are to retain control.
The Chinese people were, and apparently still are from indications, not buying the story. A new massive round of suppression is underway, with even a number of very prominent people being disappeared (wonder if the number of organs available for transplant has gone up as well?). The open contempt I saw a few weeks ago for the leadership caste — even from those in the caste — and for XI was something I never thought would never see in my lifetime.
But, there is more to it. Xi has global dreams, and has seen them rocked by the Trump sanctions and trade deals. Bad enough his bluff was called there, but then came COVID-19 to shake the people’s faith (or at least tolerance) of his rule. While we are focused so intently on our COVID-19 issue, why not take advantage of it?
This piece from the Asia Times showcases what is being done militarily. Now, in addition to that, we have things happening elsewhere in SE Asia, the Middle East, Venezuela, and in Mexico and Central America. On some of it, I will just say that there are swirls in the data. Straws in the wind if you will, but definite efforts by those who wish America ill to also seize this opportunity to get some licks on. Could there be some coordination on all these efforts? I highly suspect so, and suspect there is one player who sees a chance to take advantage and perhaps minimize the damage they have done to themselves. While I am not sure that they want a full-up war, as this article considers, I would be surprised if there is not some form of military incident in the China Sea in the next 7-10 days. I also would only be surprised if we don’t see something in the Caribbean or on the Mexican border soon.
Why? Let’s just say lots of swirls/straws. One thing that struck me on Wednesday at the briefing was the language used. Phrases, particularly certain phrases in government speak, have meaning. One thing that caught my ear and got my full attention, was when the phrase “National Security Threat” was applied to the Mexican (and other) cartels. There was some other discussion, including national intelligence data and how it could not be discussed. On top of the warning to Iran and their proxies, it is clear a lot of things are potentially incoming besides COVID-19. Buckle up kiddies, we could have A Deeper Blue.
Turning back more fully to COVID-19, here’s a good editorial in the Washington Examiner on the failures (complete in my book) of the media. It pairs nicely with this article from the Mises Institute calling for the FDA to be held accountable for the deaths they have caused (even before COVID-19). This NYT opinion piece looks at the possibility that more medical people are dying because they are getting a higher load of the virus. As discussed before, in The Game of Loads and Vectors, a single microbe will do nothing, a sufficient dose will trigger an immune response and make you resistant, a larger load will make you sick, and a higher load will kill you. The question here is how are the medical people getting the viral equivalent of LD50 despite precautions? For those screeching and thumping their chests that they don’t see the word quarantine in the Constitution, here are two very good articles: one at Powerline and one at National Review.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
I’ve debated if I should keep doing these or not. As I noted before, I started because I saw a pattern in data, and did not feel that what was happening was getting the attention it deserved. That it also let me talk about practical/rational preparedness, encourage same if things got bad (and they got way worse than I would have thought in those early days), and share good information and links to scientific papers and related information.
The fact is, I can talk about data, trends, and more; but, I’d not be adding much to what you can get at whitehouse.gov/live with the daily updates. Yes, I highly recommend watching them yourself, as you will only get accurate and full information by doing so directly.
Other good news is that Japan has begun clinical trials on Avigan (an anti-flu drug) as a treatment for the Chinese virus. The more effective treatments, the better. There is good news in the treatment world, if I continue to do these posts I may try to focus in on them, and discuss what it will take to develop drugs specifically targeted to COVID-19.
With that, I’m calling it a post.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
Well, wish I could say that the virus, the economic impacts, and the damage it is having to the Republic was all an elaborate April Fool’s joke, but can’t. I do not like the deaths, the lockdown, the damage to our economy, and the damage to our freedoms.
Not feeling the greatest today, weather changes are triggering a lot of pain, so, thinking today will be short and sweet. Yesterday afternoon, at the briefing, I was surprised and delighted that several of the questions I had posted on Twitter wishing they would really get asked, did.
The models were shown, discussed, and Dr. Birx even got into how some of the numbers were being numbered so that “we are comparing apples to apples.” However, several immediately noted that the model appeared to be treating all locations as having the same population density, particularly the cities. They don’t, and that is huge. Also, PoliMath on Twitter noted that the government data site was effectively down. Information that has been promised wasn’t available in any form.
I still have a number of questions, but at least I can see why they are basing numbers and such the way they are. Not necessarily agree with, but… I think that, barring some outside influence, that in two weeks we will know if they were right, overreacting, or if something else is going on. I think, hope, pray they are wrong about both sets of numbers, and that the final results are much, much lower.
Meantime, I started a discussion on Twitter earlier about what I think we should do as soon as possible after this breaks. Have gotten some good feedback, feel free to chime in.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
Yesterday, I talked about numbers, and what numbers truly matter. There was discussion on why so many of the statistics being presented (esp. by media) are useless. There was also a question that was begged: Is the government telling us everything.
The short answer is no, as with any wartime activity — and this is being treated as a war in many respects — there is no need for the public to know everything. This isn’t because loose lips sink ships; it’s because floppy mouths in an industry working hard to incite panic and score political points could use some of that information to kick the panic even higher. President Trump pointed out that he could indeed cause a panic and had tried not to, in response to a stupid question yesterday.
In the same news conference, Dr. Birx made mention of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. In fact, listening to her, and then re-reading what she said to be sure I had indeed heard and remembered correctly, I’m left with the impression that she sees this as what will happen if we flatten now and continue quarantine (by any other name). I think 200k deaths is what she sees as worst case, with 100k deaths the goal. The comments of others who spoke seemed to share this outlook. The President honestly seems to think that we can keep it below 100k; but, he also backed Dr. Birx and her assessment.
Which leads one to wonder what they know that is not in the public domain. Something is known that scares those in leadership. Something that has made the President willing to put our economy in the tank and erode freedoms. I have suspicions about what some of it may be, but I also think further public speculation is not a good idea. For those with an analytical bent, pull up the session and watch when Dr. Birx speaks. Watch her, listen closely, then go back and this time when you view it watch what you can of the President and others. Watch the body language, listen carefully to his language. Then, tell me I’m wrong. Really, I hope I am.
If you are not watching/listening to these updates, you really should. What you get in the media is rarely close to what you get first hand. You also do get to hear at least one or two reporters with something of a clue ask a good question. You can skip the networks and other dreck, and see it live from the White House.
I really can’t blame them if they are not telling us everything. Look at the media-inspired panic of the initial lockdown and the chaos that has resulted from that. I have to admit, I’ve wondered a couple of times if some families are having toilet paper casserole for dinner given how many bought that (and apparently only that).
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
Again, and again, and again: I can’t stress enough that it is not about the number of cases and number of deaths.
First, we have no clue how many cases there are out there. There could be thousands who never had symptoms or had mild symptoms that were diagnosed as something else. There could be yet more thousands who have it now and are either asymptomatic or with mild symptoms that won’t register with them or doctors. That people have died and will die from COVID-19 is, as with all deaths, tragic; however, while it makes for sensational and panic-inducing coverage, the number is currently well below the flu and a number of other causes of death.
Second, the number is meaningless as each country is reporting deaths differently. Some list everyone who had it and has died. Others keep their death count down by not counting anyone with other conditions when they die, listing instead the other condition. Others are not counting anyone who does not die in a hospital. As such, the aggregate numbers are interesting, but essentially garbage as far as generating any meaningful statistical insight.
So keep in mind as we move ahead, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. We knew early that the Chinese were lying and anything out of China did not reflect reality. Right now, we are seeing that this continues. We are also seeing reporting that fails to share comparable information, using per capita for other countries and total figures here for example.
Based on what reliable data we have, we can generate some ideas of transmission rate of COVID-19; we can generate much better estimations of death rates; and, we can monitor spread and have at least some idea of when it will peak in a given area. Given what we do know from data currently in the public domain, the reaction to COVID-19 seems a bit extreme. Which begs the question: what don’t we know? Is there data, based on national intelligence means, that is causing the rather pessimistic outlook and the continuing national lockdown? One wonders.
Meantime, the data you really need to watch are the number of cases that require hospitalization; and, of those, how many require ICU and/or ventilator support. In terms of overwhelming medical resources, those are the only two numbers that are important. Remember, it is the overwhelming of resources that has had such horrendous outcomes in other countries. So much so, that in addition to Italy, England is now rationing health care to those most likely to survive.
The FDA has finally gotten around to granting emergency use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat COVID-19. There are now multiple studies showing the effectiveness, which continues to track as close to 100 percent as possible. Italy and England are now using it as well. In yet another installment of why the FDA has continued to make the situation worse, read this.
Now, back to statistics and meaningful out comes. There is one other number that is going to be important, perhaps even the single most important number of all: who has had it, fully recovered, and is therefore immune. These are the people that can safely leave lockdown and get our economy going again. Who can expand critical services, and bring less critical back online.
The problem is, we don’t have a clue to that number. The key to getting good data fast lies in the ramping up of testing. American industry is rising to that challenge, even coming up with better and faster tests. As the President noted early on, when finding out the CDC was the bottleneck, widespread testing is crucial to having a better understanding of what has happened, is happening now, and to getting out of lockdown. As Professor Karol Sikora noted on Twitter, this data will be a huge part of fighting COVID-19 and ending the global lockdown.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for at least two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
This morning, I want to get a bit more into protein crystallography, vaccines, and why lockdown until vaccines are developed just won’t work. Meantime, my usual reminder that the mainstream media coverage is detrimental to the physical and mental health of you and those you love. Don’t give in to the deliberate and willful effort to incite panic and spread false information.
Vaccines have come a long way since cowpox and Jenner, or even the work of Pasteur. Part of that advancement is that we now have ways of studying the microbes down to a level where you can see the individual atoms that make up the subject of interest.
Proteins are the building blocks of life. In the case of some microbes (bacteria and viruses), they can be described as the building blocks of death. Understanding the structure of any protein helps scientists figure out what it does and how it does it.
One way to do so that I am most familiar with is protein crystallography. In simplest terms, you take a protein and grow a crystallized version of it. In most cases, there are several forms that can grow out of any single protein, so you have to isolate the particular structure that is needed. The crystals are usually grown in a drop of liquid that contains the protein, growth medium, and other factors related to the crystallization.
Once you have the crystal, you stabilize it and put it in the path of a “bright” (powerful) X-ray source and use sensors to record how the beam penetrates, doesn’t penetrate, or scatters. With a crystal of sufficient size, you can literally map out the physical structure down to the placement of the individual atoms. This data is then converted into a visual image of the protein in question.
Some of that imagery is quite spectacular. When I worked for NASA both times, I worked with the staff at the UAB Center for Macromolecular crystallography. At that center, they could and did grow crystals, on the ground and in space (which offers quite a few advantages, and analyze them. They had a system that could use that data to create a 3-D image that allowed you to examine the structure in detail, even rotate or isolate sections at need. With that information, treatments could be developed that would bind only with the desired target, allowing drugs to be developed that were more efficient and had fewer (or almost no) side effects.
What does this have to do with vaccines? For modern vaccines, everything.
To design a modern vaccine, you have to understand the structure of the organism against which you are vaccinating. First, all organisms mutate over time. Certain structures, however, have to remain the same or the organism is no longer viable and dies off. If you can identify those structures that can’t really change, you can design either a treatment that binds to that site; or, you can develop a vaccine that does the same thing to prevent it. For example, HIV had what was considered a high mutation rate which hampered development of vaccines. I know of at least one experiment that flew on the Shuttle to grow crystals to help identify the areas that could not change in order to develop a vaccine. Sadly, I don’t remember that effort being as successful as hoped. My memory is fuzzy, but I seem to recall that in the time available the crystals could not be grown to a useful size; but, again, my memory is fuzzy.
Again, understanding the structure is critical, as in many cases, you only want certain antigens or even a single antigen (a substance that produces an immune response by the body) to teach the body what it needs to fight against. When the vaccine is given, the antigen(s) in it cause the body to think it is being invaded and to develop an immune response that attacks the full/real pathogen when it enters the body.
Protein crystallography is one means of identifying the structure of a pathogen such as COVID-19. I know of one effort to use protein crystallography on COVID-19, and suspect there are more. So, between protein crystallography and other methods, targets for treatment and vaccine development can and have been identified.
Now, we get to actual vaccine production. Despite the problems with the accuracy of information from China, we have genetic and structural information that identifies target antigens for vaccine development. These have to be isolated, grown in the laboratory, and then normally they would be tested on animals and then humans. The normal FDA approval process for drugs and vaccines has be circumvented, and the first of what will likely be several vaccines is now in human testing. Even with the shortened process, that still takes time, as in weeks to months to see how it works. If it does work and does not need refinement (this is where later vaccines will have an advantage), we can start giving it out, right?
Wrong.
Going from creating what could be as little as a few ounces needed for initial development and testing, you now have to manufacture hundreds, or even thousands, of gallons of a product that requires multiple stages to create while ensuring the highest possible quality. Even variations of the antigen being used have to be removed in many/most cases. Ramping up production will be a time consuming process. Again, we are talking months even with best case on development, production, and regulatory approval. In short, I think we are looking at somewhere between six to ten months in a best case scenario. I hope I’m wrong, but as noted before, you always plan for the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes.
Six to ten months in national lockdown is not going to work. The disaster that would be for the economy, not to mention to civil liberties, can’t be overstated. I can’t think of any rational person of any political persuasion who will stand for that.
Now, the above is greatly simplified. As above, if you want to know more about modern vaccine production methods, I recommend you start with this, with this, with this, this paper is a must read, this paper, and this paper. If you read those, I think you will better understand how miraculous both the current technology for studying things like COVID-19 is and the breathtaking pace shown in getting the first human trial underway. It literally could not have been done twenty years ago in my opinion, and quite possible even as little as ten years ago.
For those who want to know more about the work done at the UAB Center for Macromolecular Crystallography, I commend to you both what may still be available through NASA relating to Shuttle missions, and the papers and talks by Dr. Lawrence DeLucas, Charles Bugg, et al. For those who want to know more about the efforts to prevent paralysis from spinal cord injuries mentioned yesterday, you should look to the works of Borgens, Shi, et al at Purdue University.
Thus concludes today’s lecture. Yes, I have simplified things so that they are accurate though not necessarily precise. I wanted it on a level that could be widely understood. Hence the links to all the papers for those who want it in greater detail and precision.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for at least two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
If you need another reminder on why you should not go to the mainstream media for accurate and useful information, go read this. Right now, the media is the greatest threat to your health and safety, and those you love, out there.
Nor have the CDC, FDA, and NIH covered themselves with glory. The latest take down on how they got us in the position we are in is here. Some may chide me for attacking them, and I will admit that there are some good, very good, people working there. However, they are political agencies, not scientific or medical at this point. More on that in a moment.
Thanks to President Trump, who has to continually play whack-a-mole with the bureaucrats, a number of unnecessary regulations have been pulled out of the way. As such, there are new treatments coming on line, and testing is expanding in quantity and quality as the power of the American free enterprise system is harnessed to meet the challenges of COVID-19. Get the bureaucrats out of the way, and there is no challenge we can’t face.
In news not likely to be covered widely in the mainstream media, Dr. Didier Raoult and colleagues have published a second paper on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat COVID-19. Read the paper here, and when politicians say it won’t work and they make it illegal to prescribe, ask them why when three (more at this point I think) studies show it works.
I was going to talk about vaccines and protein crystallization today, but the number of conspiracy theories about the pharmaceutical industry, while not deserving a reply, do give me a springboard to talk about the need to massively overhaul the FDA. This is something that has been bitterly resisted by the FDA, to the point of scorched earth, and by certain politicians with a vested interest. What vested interest? Go look up the Epi-Pen scandal and note but one politician who had a vested interest. They are not alone.
As a liaison to the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) many years ago, I had the chance to meet one person named head of the FDA with a mandate from the then President to reform the agency, including updating the drug approval process. Sadly, they were not successful and what happened there is why I use the terms ‘bitterly opposed’ and ‘scorched earth.’
The first time I worked as a contractor for NASA, one of the scientific investigations that I came to learn a lot about involved protein crystallography for new drug development. Short version for today, if you can grow the right form of a given protein, it allows you to develop drugs that will bind with/act on it and not anything else. This greatly reduces the chance of side effects and makes for a more effective drug.
At that time, it took a minimum of five years and an average of $400 million to get through the FDA process. If, in the course of going through that process, you found a way to improve the drug, you had to start completely over again. By the end of my second time as a contractor for NASA, the cost had grown to $800 million.
Keep in mind, this is not the cost of research and development. This is just the cost to go through the FDA new drug approval process. I’m honestly scared to see how much the average cost is now, or how many years it takes. Means of improving the testing, and speeding the process up, have been known for years, but again were and are bitterly resisted by the FDA. These methods in no way impaired the safety of the public.
So, when you see drugs costing hundreds or thousands of dollars; or, you see drugs that can work on multiple diseases or conditions but are not FDA approved for them, this cost is why they are expensive and often not approved for other uses even when known to be safe and effective. Unless something has drastically changed (doubtful), you have to go through a process costing hundreds of millions of dollars, and lasting years, for each and every disease/condition.
Which is why even though Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine was proven effective against coronaviruses in 2005 (and ignored by the CDC), it was not approved for it. What company is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on approval when it has no realistic chance of a return on it’s investment.
Before I forget, on a similar topic, I worked with a researcher (couple actually) who developed a treatment that reversed paralysis from spinal injury, every time. He demonstrated it in animals repeatedly, and it worked if he could get to them within about 36 hours. The treatment prevented the formation of scar tissue in the spinal cord track that would block the regrowth of nerves, as they can and do regenerate if there is a pathway. When he tried to get approval from the FDA to do human trials, they said it had to be proven on patients who already were paralyzed from spinal injury – the people who already had scar tissue and on whom the treatment was unlikely to work. The FDA’s take was that no matter the animal studies, if it wouldn’t work on patients on whom it was almost impossible to work, then it was a no go. Last I heard, he was trying it there way even though there was almost no chance of success.
Thus ends today’s lecture. I really do want to talk more about protein crystallography, structure-based drug design, vaccines, and related topics. I find them fascinating, and they do have quite a bit of relevance to what is happening right now. That said, I intend to go have such fun as I can have in unpaid lockdown.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
The focus on cases and deaths is not helpful, to put it mildly. It is disingenuous at best (but makes breathtaking headlines), and it makes for bad analysis. Polymath on Twitter makes a good case that looking at composite data for the entire U.S. is not a good idea. I agree, and present the case that we need to be breaking it down further. Each state needs to be examined on its own, and within that each state should be looking at county/regional data hard.
Why? It shows trends, clusters, and other data that makes it easier to plan responses, ensure logistics of needed materials, and ensure other resources get to where they are needed most.
Which gets to the other issue we need to be discussing: How do we get America back to work. A one-size-fits-all approach is not the best approach, and will destroy both the American economy and our freedoms. What is needed is a response proportionate to each location. A rural area or even cities where the spread is minimal do not need to be on the same level of lockdown as an area with significant spread. You change things as the data warrants. This needs to apply not only at the state level, but at each county and even within counties.
Expect this to be fought tooth and nail by some. Far too many politicians are grabbing all they can to make things the way they want them to be, rather than what the Constitution says should be. Don’t believe me? Just look at the number of governors, mayors, and others who are using this as an excuse to ban gun and ammo sales, or take other actions to further radical political agendas. Lots to see out there.
In fact, if you want to see the true Evil, take a look at Nevada governor Sisolack , Michigan governor Whitmer, and (no surprise) His Majesty’s Governor Northam, the Earl of Blackface. Each of these has chosen to ban or severely restrict the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for reasons of politics, not medicine. Yes, I do consider that Evil, not evil, as they are willing to kill the citizens of their states for personal and political gain. They may or may not hate you, but they are willing to help you die. In my book, that’s murder. The law may well say negligent homicide, and if any die or are permanently harmed by the lack of treatment, they may find official immunity does not cover them from such charges and related civil actions. They need to be held to account for this before someone does die. If you live in that state, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Nor are they alone. Look at NYC, where the mayor and top leaders deliberately encouraged actions — in the face of warnings from experts at the CDC and elsewhere — encouraged behaviors that guaranteed a catastrophic outbreak in NYC. There are other, similar stories around the country where elected leaders have put their personal and political gain ahead of the lives of their fellow Citizens, people they have sworn to serve (and protect). Congress, state, local. Again, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Now, on to models which is a hot topic after yesterday’s news. Frankly, I’m disappointed with some I know who are both smart and educated in regards their comments about models and the use of same. Add to the list of those who say: it’s the flu, it’s going to kill us all, this was a Chinese bioattack, it’s all Trump’s fault, those that say we should never use computer models again for policy decisions. People who say any of these things are stupid, and you are probably better off without them in your life. Done right, computer models can be a very useful tool. Then again, like all statistics, they can be used to lie.
As noted previously, models are only as good as the data that goes in them. The GIGO law still applies today, and will always apply. That said, even flawed models can be useful if used properly.
For every model, there are usually four basic runs: best case, worst case, median, and mode. Running a model to get those four shows a range of outcomes. It helps define the limits of the problem, and with smart analysis, the model itself. With the range defined, you can drill down to get a better understanding of how different responses or other actions (such as different spread rates, death rates, etc. in this case) change outcomes. You can also identify critical areas to explore in more detail.
As noted before, if you are a leader facing a crisis be it a dam breaking or a pandemic hitting, you need good info on best case, worst case, median, and mode and you need it fast. While you hope for best case, you plan and act for worst case in order to get something closer to mean or median if you can’t be sure of getting the best case outcome. You have to depend on the experts to get you the data needed to make the right decisions.
So, you as a leader are dependent on those of critical expertise, who may or may not have any political or other biases and who may have little to no real-world experience. You go with what you have, do the best you can, and start correcting on the fly as you get better data. This is what has happened and is happening.
Right now, the issue is not the number of cases or the number of deaths. It is how many require hospital treatment, and more importantly how many will require advanced support. It is frustrating that there is not better data on this, and when I talked about breaking it down as far as we can, this is some of the most critical data out there. If you can project the local spread rate and the local required treatment rate and compare it to the available beds and support… This article takes a look at what states/areas are either at capacity or approaching it. It’s not definitive or hard data, but it’s a good start.
So, what to do? I hope the President will continue to do one thing above all others: cut loose the ingenuity and can-do attitude that is American Exceptionalism and free market capitalism. While government bureaucracy has time and time again hampered efforts at effective and efficient response to COVID-19, American businesses have time and time again worked miracles to meet needs.
We need ventilators. There are major companies lining up to make them. Even better, you have MIT developing a $100 model; and, you have James Dyson designing a new ventilator in 10 days and committing to building 15,000 of them as fast as possible. You have another company designing a device to allow one ventilator to help four patients at a time. There are a lot more stories like this out there. Rather than listen to or watch the media, go do a search and I think it will help your outlook.
So, Mr. President, keep the bureaucrats at bay, replace the lockdown with a gradated series of responses, and let’s get cracking. Use the better data we are getting to analyze each area and decide what response is best for that area. As we do this, let’s look at what worked, what didn’t, what could have been done better (AARs are a good thing, so long as I don’t have to write them) and then use that as a starting point for the long overdue (and bitterly resisted) modernization, update, and refocusing of the CDC, FDA, NIH (and others, please) on their core missions. Let’s also look at the ineffective and unneeded regulations, burdensome laws, and other impediments to our nation and our economy and eliminate, change, and deal with them as needed.
Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
There is huge news this morning, news that may or may not get the coverage it should, both in terms of quality and quantity. In some ways, it is not unexpected but is rocking the epidemiological community.
The reason I started doing these updates was that I did not think the story was getting the coverage it should. One of the things I do is look at data and spot patterns. I did not like the pattern I was seeing even before the mainstream media started paying attention. It was clear something was going on; that it was far worse than China was admitting based off what data could be obtained; and, it was also clear that China was flat out lying with the data provided. It didn’t take much of a dive into Chinese social media (or into commercial intel) to figure that out.
One of the first places I found that was taking it seriously and trying to model what was happening was the Imperial College of London. Their model(s) were one of the first efforts to identify, chart, and project and I, like many others, linked to them and used them in our analysis.
This morning, I awoke to the news that Neil Ferguson at the ICM has revised, yet again, the projections. This is the third pivot, and while a lot of people are going to be castigating him, I’m not yet prepared to. For while we knew the data from China was incorrect, it was all we had. The problem is, in any model, that when you put garbage in, you get garbage out. GIGO applies today as it always has. While I did consider his previous advice on herd immunity — a reaction plan quickly dropped by the government — was idiotic, it was to some degree understandable.
The short version for those that don’t follow the link: it’s bad, but both the UK and the US should have enough beds and capacity to handle what is to come. It will get very close in some areas, and a few may hit capacity, but the death toll will be much, much lower. Seriously, go read the article.
Here in the U.S., I suspect that NY and California are going to be our two major hotspots where this may not hold. The unconscionable actions of DeBlasio in NYC in the early days have made a bad situation catastrophic. Previous decisions by him and by Gov. Cuomo pretty much guaranteed they would not be ready to handle something like this. California, well, much the same boat. It is anecdotal for now, but the countries and areas that had tight government controls on, or socialized centralized government healthcare, have faired the worst. An interesting point for debate sometime soon.
This news is going to change our response as well. Again, I will point out that we had to plan for and initiate a response based on worst-case until we had enough accurate data to understand the situation. We are now getting accurate data in amounts that will allow that, though we won’t have a truly clear picture for weeks. However, we have enough to begin considering options while we watch what transpires between now and the end of the 15-day period.
Also, I will admit I was wrong about masks. I did not think they would be effective under the circumstances we thought we were facing. The fact is, there is now evidence that if everyone were to wear surgical masks (and if we had them for people to wear them), it would slow the infection rate down. Note: just wearing one yourself won’t do a lot of good. This will only work if everyone wears one. A bit of anecdotal data on this is here. Again, the problem there is that we would have to have them, and right now we don’t.
There is a lot to learn from what has happened/is happening. There needs to be some serious and intense debate about it, and we need to massively overhaul and update the CDC and FDA — including trimming out the major mission creep in both and returning them to their original and vital functions.
Again, ignore the media and the breathless fixation on cases and deaths. Do not give in to the panic they are trying to create. Yes, as noted before, cases are going to spike both because of transmission and the rapid expansion of testing, which will generate a false spike as existing cases are confirmed. Yes, sadly, people will die but the number is going to be far less than most other causes including the flu.
As I noted yesterday: “What are the numbers to look at? First, what is the number of patients requiring treatment in a hospital. Second, what is the number of people requiring treatment in an ICU? Third, what is the number of patients who require ventilator support? You might be surprised at the age ranges of those needing ICU and/or ventilator time, as a surprising number of them are NOT in the at-risk range.”
Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
