While I do wish he had not called it a riot (it was not, riots are what burned so many cities over the summer), Glenn Greenwald has done a great job of listing the major lies about what happened on January 6 at the Capitol. For all that I still wonder if I didn’t shift a reality or two because Glenn has been a voice of reason of late, it is a much needed post to counter the mainstream media narrative. Go read it.
Tag: mainstream media
The Death Of Pvt. Journalism
Many years ago, at my then blog and later on Blackfive, I wrote a series of posts about what it would take to save modern journalism. In that series, I went into a number of symptoms that had taken journalism from any semblance of fair and balanced into pure advocacy. While the Camelot-like myth of an unbiased media is just that, it used to be that real journalists would occasionally do real journalism.
The problem is, I was focused on the symptoms rather than the root cause of the symptoms. While I am not the first to say this, I have come to think that journalism died when it became a profession, rather than a trade. In days gone by, journalism was not a respectable profession. The portrayal of low-income, not socially acceptable to high society, hard working, hard drinking, and somewhat disreputable (to highly disreputable) portrayals of the media in film noir and beyond was in many ways more accurate than those in the field would have liked.
While there were always exceptions, they were just that. Even some of those exceptions were not as portrayed; rather, they were creations to give a veneer of respectability to both the trade and to the news being disseminated.
I was fortunate to have been trained by some of those who were legend in the days when it was a trade rather than a profession. My first journalism professor was representative of the movie caricature, down to a bottle of booze in a lower desk drawer. Some of the rules of writing still are drilled into me, such as the proper use of “over” versus “more-than” which he taught by the explanation of ‘I have a brick over your head, that weighs more than x pounds. When I drop it on your head for using over, it will hurt.’ Humorous then, likely to get him reprimanded or disciplined today because to snowflakes, it’s a threat.
Looking at things, I’m not sure that any like Mike Royko, Darryl Feldmeir, or Les Brownlee (who set a number of milestones as a black journalist) could find work in the field today. Today, you have to have a four year degree to get started as a “serious” journalist. To truly get ahead, at least a Master’s degree.
And there lies the problem. Our universities provide and demand lockstep indoctrination and obedience to a certain political thought. Increasingly, if you hold a different view, you are shunned. The net result is that while newsrooms might contain every color and multiple genders, they lack almost any ideological diversity outside a very narrow progressive spectrum. Don’t believe me? Take a look at what is going on inside the New York Times (where the spirit of Duranty lives!) right now with the battles between staff and management, or even within the publishing field where the lower level staffers are revolting over the publication of conservative (or even moderate) books.
Can Pvt. Journalism still be saved? Perhaps. I see real journalism happening, even at risk of life and reputation, in the independent media. People like Andy Ngo, Sharyl Attkisson, and organizations like Newsmax give me some hope. However, before they can be truly effective, what passes for the mainstream media will have to crash and burn and/or new media outlets dedicated to real journalism be created and flourish. I see the start of the latter, and am watching the growing fires and explosions within the “old” mainstream media growing. What comes of it remains to be seen, especially since Big Tech and establishment politicians are doing all they can to shore up the ‘right’ type of outlets despite the growing problems.
That said, until there are more organizations like Newsmax and they have real viewership, journalism is dead. Again, others have said it before, but if Trump and others are smart, they will start news organizations and means of distribution (like Parler and Rumble) to bypass the censorious Big Tech and get the word out to the broadest possible audience. Note that such efforts are being fought tooth and nail, and both Big Tech and the media devote a large amount of time to trying to paint such efforts as racist, allowing hate speech, and other double-plus-ungood things. Such efforts rightly terrify them (and those in the establishment political class), and they will stop at nothing to destroy them. Indeed, I expect to see actual physical means used as well to literally harm or kill those behind such efforts. Yes, I’m serious as political assassination was a tool in this last election, though the media did its best to not cover such things.
To save Pvt. Journalism, who — like the Republic — may be dead in many respects, means making use of the “golden hour” for revival. It will take funds and, frankly, more courage than I think many may have. It’s one thing to be fearless for yourself, but when family and friends are threatened and attacked (as has happened) in a variety of means physical, fiscal, and beyond… All we can do is do what we can as individuals to either create such efforts or support them as best we can. Oh, and it would be good to make journalism into an honest trade, rather than a dishonest profession.
Two Important Reads
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it, and not just in summer school. There is a history behind what is happening right now, and that also applies to the mobs. This essay is well worth reading, and deserves the widest possible audience, as it goes into the sordid and bloody history of Millenarian Mobs. Hat tip to Powerline.
Three quotes stand out from the essay.
Given the Great Silencing (part II HERE) underway with the expansive censoring by Big Tech as one wing, this quote stood out:
Cohn shows how the adherence of lower-class masses, the phenomenon of crowds shut off from alternative sources of information and argument, helped drive these movements along their radical logic, to the point that their adepts became utterly closed to reality. We might say of them that they mixed and drank the Kool-Aid that killed them.
This quote also stood out as it is something I’ve said for a while:
Our own generation’s ruling classes are seized by no demons. Instead, they are principally concerned with holding on to power, and short-sightedly regard the revolutionary movements as allies against their socio-political competitors. That is why today it makes sense to consider the violent masses, and to some extent even the purified elite, as in effect pawns of the ruling classes.
And, finally:
Alas, the millennialists and their mob do not need specific grievances against specific targets. The civilization itself is the only real target; its existence and the mob’s lack of complete mastery over it are the only grievances that really matter. They need know only that the civilization they are attacking has become vulnerable, undefended, and may be safely treated with contempt. If we do not share that contempt, history shows we have no choice but to treat the millennialist mob as the enemies they are.
Please, go read the whole thing. Oh, and if you are Antifa or BLM, you might want to look into the Brownshirts and what happened to them; and, if media, you might want to look at who was among the first to the wall in almost every Marxist takeover in the world in the last century. They are happy to use you, but they don’t like you. You would do well to read Sarah A. Hoyt’s message to you.
Finally, this really should be added to my Gust Front post as it is another sign the storm is upon us. Lone crackpot or someone field testing training (or conducting training)? The scary thing is that the latter has to even be considered.
No, She’s Not
Predictably, the mainstream media types are out to get Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany. Enter reliable tool Bill Grueskin, who claims she is undermining the credibility of the press. While Paul Bedard does a good take down of the gruesome column, I will simply note is that she has simply cleared the smoke and allowed all to see the loathsome state of modern media. For me, she has reinforced all the reasons for my decision to leave that trade. I will note simply that PRSA and marketing organizations have a far stronger code of conduct and actually — unlike the media — enforce it.
Hold The Line
COVID-19 8Apr20
Good Morning! The real-world data continues to differ significantly from those of the models, in a very positive way. I’m glad the Federal government has released it’s models, as there are reports one or more states are refusing to release their models. For today, I leave the model problems to others. That there are serious problems with the models, and the data, is the point to be made.
On the good news side, there is a promising drug for treating the pneumonia that can come from COVID-19 (as opposed to the virus itself); and, there is a clinical trial of sildenafil to treat COVID-19 underway.
Which brings up a not so nice topic, which is the media and so-called expert war on hydroxychloroquine. I don’t want to link to the story in question, from Axios, both because I don’t think it deserves the linkage and I don’t want to encourage them. I’ve seen similar stories in other outlets, including pretty much all my local media.
On Twitter, I’ve got a bit to say. Short version is that our so-called elite, who have yet to be right on a single major point in regards COVID-19, are slamming the treatment as unproven, claiming most (but not quite all) the studies are flawed, and that the thousands of positive outcomes are “anecdotal.” This despite the American study provided to the CDC in 2005 (previously linked here) showing that it was effective against all coronaviruses.
Instead, they push for new drugs to be developed, following FDA guidelines (and years and millions in development), rather than go with an inexpensive and effective treatment. Interesting, no? Also interesting are the number of state leaders (who seem to share something in common) that have tried to deny or are denying (claim on Twitter that Utah has reserved it to the state and won’t let physicians prescribe it) based on the comments of the so-called elite.
Given that at least one governor has been caught hoarding, one wonders if it not being reserved for the state equivalent of the nomenklatura? The single take away I have is that the media, political leaders who follow the “advice” of the so-called elite, and that failed elite itself would rather see you die than to admit a treatment works because it did not go through all the bureaucratic steps and/or was suggested by Trump.
That same bureaucratic swamp is still busy slowing things down or preventing effective responses. This article on “The Red Tape Nation” is a good read, as is this one on bureaucratic efforts to block making masks in America. Oh, and if you still think China is good, read this. If you don’t like Fox, same basic story is on multiple outlets.
A bit of what I consider good news. Lorraine Maradiaga, who said she was positive for COVID-19, posted threats online to infect as many as she could. She’s been arrested on terrorism charges. Good. She, other like her, and those doing “pranks” of spitting or sneezing on food all should be charged as such. God Bless Texas.
While it is not nice of me, I think anyone doing one of those “pranks” deserves whatever happens to them. If they get a beat-down before police arrive, I’m good with that. Which is why I’m sharing a favorite video:
On a more serious note, Roger L. Simon asks if the White House Press Association enabling communist propaganda. The answer is yes. The more interesting question is why they did it. I guarantee it was for gain, possibly on more than one level. Speaking of the WHPA, this video absolutely nails the behavior of it and its members at every briefing I’ve watched.
Going back to China, I’ve had questions about the virus and its origins. I’ve shared a number of them in previous updates. Today, courtesy of Instapundit, comes a very good question and reasonable theory on the origin. Keep in mind the two papers I’ve linked to in the past saying it was man-made. While there is a lot of debate on those papers, this article brings up a very good point (or three). It ties in strongly with what I’ve said for weeks.
Finally, while I try to keep politics down to a dull roar, I highly, highly urge you to read this take. Then, go back to the links I’ve given to any number of political responses, and where people have put politics (and self-gain) ahead of doing what is right for the Republic. Look at all those who have opposed doing effective and efficient responses, and note one thing they have in common. It is not a pretty picture.
Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu or a cold. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off work without pay.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)
Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)
New England Journal of Medicine
Additional link to Johns Hopkins
More to come
Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support
Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)
More to come
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 27Mar20
Where to start. Well, let’s start with the same thing as the last few days. If you are depending on the mainstream media for accurate and unbiased news, please stop. What you are getting from them is a deliberate attempt to create panic for partisan and personal gain. You are NOT getting good info. In fact, what you are getting is a threat to your physical health, your mental health, and your freedoms. The latest of far too many was an attempt to smear a hospital and create a climate of fear. There is no excuse for this. Period. Full Stop. Want to see more lies and distortions, go read this. You also need to read this.
The focus on cases and deaths is not helpful, to put it mildly. It is disingenuous at best (but makes breathtaking headlines), and it makes for bad analysis. Polymath on Twitter makes a good case that looking at composite data for the entire U.S. is not a good idea. I agree, and present the case that we need to be breaking it down further. Each state needs to be examined on its own, and within that each state should be looking at county/regional data hard.
Why? It shows trends, clusters, and other data that makes it easier to plan responses, ensure logistics of needed materials, and ensure other resources get to where they are needed most.
Which gets to the other issue we need to be discussing: How do we get America back to work. A one-size-fits-all approach is not the best approach, and will destroy both the American economy and our freedoms. What is needed is a response proportionate to each location. A rural area or even cities where the spread is minimal do not need to be on the same level of lockdown as an area with significant spread. You change things as the data warrants. This needs to apply not only at the state level, but at each county and even within counties.
Expect this to be fought tooth and nail by some. Far too many politicians are grabbing all they can to make things the way they want them to be, rather than what the Constitution says should be. Don’t believe me? Just look at the number of governors, mayors, and others who are using this as an excuse to ban gun and ammo sales, or take other actions to further radical political agendas. Lots to see out there.
In fact, if you want to see the true Evil, take a look at Nevada governor Sisolack , Michigan governor Whitmer, and (no surprise) His Majesty’s Governor Northam, the Earl of Blackface. Each of these has chosen to ban or severely restrict the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for reasons of politics, not medicine. Yes, I do consider that Evil, not evil, as they are willing to kill the citizens of their states for personal and political gain. They may or may not hate you, but they are willing to help you die. In my book, that’s murder. The law may well say negligent homicide, and if any die or are permanently harmed by the lack of treatment, they may find official immunity does not cover them from such charges and related civil actions. They need to be held to account for this before someone does die. If you live in that state, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Nor are they alone. Look at NYC, where the mayor and top leaders deliberately encouraged actions — in the face of warnings from experts at the CDC and elsewhere — encouraged behaviors that guaranteed a catastrophic outbreak in NYC. There are other, similar stories around the country where elected leaders have put their personal and political gain ahead of the lives of their fellow Citizens, people they have sworn to serve (and protect). Congress, state, local. Again, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Now, on to models which is a hot topic after yesterday’s news. Frankly, I’m disappointed with some I know who are both smart and educated in regards their comments about models and the use of same. Add to the list of those who say: it’s the flu, it’s going to kill us all, this was a Chinese bioattack, it’s all Trump’s fault, those that say we should never use computer models again for policy decisions. People who say any of these things are stupid, and you are probably better off without them in your life. Done right, computer models can be a very useful tool. Then again, like all statistics, they can be used to lie.
Dr. Birx has some thoughts on the subject, and on the media use of misleading (cough, lies, cough) models and statistics. They are well worth the time to watch and listen.
As noted previously, models are only as good as the data that goes in them. The GIGO law still applies today, and will always apply. That said, even flawed models can be useful if used properly.
For every model, there are usually four basic runs: best case, worst case, median, and mode. Running a model to get those four shows a range of outcomes. It helps define the limits of the problem, and with smart analysis, the model itself. With the range defined, you can drill down to get a better understanding of how different responses or other actions (such as different spread rates, death rates, etc. in this case) change outcomes. You can also identify critical areas to explore in more detail.
As noted before, if you are a leader facing a crisis be it a dam breaking or a pandemic hitting, you need good info on best case, worst case, median, and mode and you need it fast. While you hope for best case, you plan and act for worst case in order to get something closer to mean or median if you can’t be sure of getting the best case outcome. You have to depend on the experts to get you the data needed to make the right decisions.
In the case of our response (and it is worth noting that according to Johns Hopkins we were the best prepared nation in the world for a pandemic, thought that does not mean we were as prepared as we should have been, we weren’t.), one of the top experts was wrong with his models and our elites were off doing other things rather than their prime and critical job in the years leading up to this. And, yes, you will find the same thing, even more so, at the FDA and CDC. It is not just a problem with the NIH. There are many lessons to be learned and applied once this is behind us.
So, you as a leader are dependent on those of critical expertise, who may or may not have any political or other biases and who may have little to no real-world experience. You go with what you have, do the best you can, and start correcting on the fly as you get better data. This is what has happened and is happening.
Right now, the issue is not the number of cases or the number of deaths. It is how many require hospital treatment, and more importantly how many will require advanced support. It is frustrating that there is not better data on this, and when I talked about breaking it down as far as we can, this is some of the most critical data out there. If you can project the local spread rate and the local required treatment rate and compare it to the available beds and support… This article takes a look at what states/areas are either at capacity or approaching it. It’s not definitive or hard data, but it’s a good start.
So, what to do? I hope the President will continue to do one thing above all others: cut loose the ingenuity and can-do attitude that is American Exceptionalism and free market capitalism. While government bureaucracy has time and time again hampered efforts at effective and efficient response to COVID-19, American businesses have time and time again worked miracles to meet needs.
We need ventilators. There are major companies lining up to make them. Even better, you have MIT developing a $100 model; and, you have James Dyson designing a new ventilator in 10 days and committing to building 15,000 of them as fast as possible. You have another company designing a device to allow one ventilator to help four patients at a time. There are a lot more stories like this out there. Rather than listen to or watch the media, go do a search and I think it will help your outlook.
You will also find stories where companies that still have manufacturing capabilities here are doubling down. 3M plans to make more than a billion masks by the end of the year. You will find the company that makes the swabs needed for testing (and a host of other uses) working overtime to meet demand and get ahead.
So, Mr. President, keep the bureaucrats at bay, replace the lockdown with a gradated series of responses, and let’s get cracking. Use the better data we are getting to analyze each area and decide what response is best for that area. As we do this, let’s look at what worked, what didn’t, what could have been done better (AARs are a good thing, so long as I don’t have to write them) and then use that as a starting point for the long overdue (and bitterly resisted) modernization, update, and refocusing of the CDC, FDA, NIH (and others, please) on their core missions. Let’s also look at the ineffective and unneeded regulations, burdensome laws, and other impediments to our nation and our economy and eliminate, change, and deal with them as needed.
Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)
Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)
New England Journal of Medicine
Additional link to Johns Hopkins
More to come
Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support
Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)
Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now
More to come
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 19Mar20
Not sure how to title this morning’s brief, as it will cover conspiracy theories, odd and interesting, and start new sections on sources of information and local businesses that can use some help.
First, let’s start with some facts. First, it is not racist to call it the Wuhan, China, or Chinese coronavirus/flu/etc. That is absolute bullshit being peddled by bought and paid for whores. No, strike that: that is an insult to hard working professionals who actually give value for the money unlike most media and far too many academics. Yes, echoing Heinlein a bit there. Anyone pushing that tripe needs to be told hard and fast to sod off.
One of the reasons we are where we are is China. China lied, obfuscated, and much more. As a result, they guaranteed the spread to other countries, and it must be noted that if not for the travel ban by President Trump (to the tune of screams, tantrums, shouts of racism, and trips to the fainting couch by the unserious) we would be in far worse shape.
One the largest problems, outside of the spread, to come from the willful and deliberate actions of the Chinese government under Xi, is the fact that we can trust no data out of China. Period. We can, and should, note it and where it checks out in comparison to data gathered in open countries and cultures, make use of it. Net result is that we truly won’t have good, solid, useful data for another six months or so. We are gathering data fast about the virus itself, as scientists are starting to literally study it atom by atom; but, that takes a while to process and we are just starting to truly learn it’s vectors, load data, and other essential information for the Game Of Loads And Vectors. We are learning, and learning fast, but it also means we are making decisions on very incomplete information.
So, what do you do in that case? Do you make decisions based on best-case or worst-case scenarios? Go for a middle approach? Truly smart people base off the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes. Does this mean we may overreact to the virus? Yes. In fact, I will go so far as to say it’s guaranteed to some extent. Does this mean the end of the Republic and all it stands for? Only if we let it, either by letting bad bills go through that enact bad laws (which go unchallenged) or by reacting with words and actions on par with Antifa.
The latter is why I’ve lost patience with the chest thumpers. I’ve backed away from some people I formerly respected, and am fast losing respect for far too many others. I’m torn between amusement and disgust at a number of them for the conspiracy theories being put forth. Are the Democrats/Deep State/Republicans/Etc taking advantage of this crisis for their own purposes? Yes. Next question. Is the media deliberately stoking a crisis for fun and profit? Yes. Next question.
Where I have a problem with those taking advantage of the situation boils down to: is what they are doing putting an agenda/politics/their own gain ahead of the Republic and the life and health of its Citizens? If so, I am making notes as that group does not care one iota for anyone but themselves, and would be just as happy if I or my loved ones die so long as it advances them and their cause. Such people are a cancer in the civic body, and need to be excised as fast as possible. In some cases, I advocate immediately (Champaign, IL mayor and council) via recall or other valid means. In others, vote them out and if you can’t vote directly, you can support any opponents they may have running against them that fit your perspectives. Make notes, make informed decisions, then vote. Oh, and I fully agree with Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit: “Concede nothing to the left. They bring nothing to the table.” I would add they bring nothing, but will steal anything and everything not nailed down to the table.
What we don’t need is panic, and there is far too much of it. Yes, the media has encouraged this even before it left China. ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ is an almost ancient mantra within the media. Mysterious disease, mass deaths, huge infection rate, lies and omissions by the Chinese government: it’s like crack for an addict when it comes to the mass media. In an era of declining viewership/readership and revenues, hell yes they jumped in and spun it up. The fact that the arrival of COVID-19/China Virus offered up partisan political advantages (tanking the economy before the election, multiple means to attack the bad orange man, advantages for the DNC primaries, etc.) was just icing on the cake. It is why you should not listen/read/watch them, and take nothing they say as anything but a lie. Lot’s of lies to choose from, may list them all another day. Well, wait, someone else has already done so.
Now, far too many are panicking in the other direction. The it’s not legal/this is stupid/it’s just the flu crowd are indeed panicking and are as bad in their own way as the media. That’s how you get things like this focusing on a novel written a decade or three ago and other coincidences; or, how you get this speculating on the Diamond Princess as if it weren’t a total fiasco. Just as our CDC royally fucked up the initial response here in the U.S. (see previous posts for links and discussion), the Japanese bureaucracy kicked off the epidemiologist there because he warned them they were doing all the wrong things. He was right. What should have been a textbook laboratory experiment and exercise in how to do it right turned into a blinding beacon of how to do it wrong. Which also means numbers from the Diamond Princess can’t be taken at face value. They are skewed because of the fuck-up. Doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them, but they can’t be used as a straight data set. That said, there is a somewhat more reasoned and interesting take on the data (as well as S. Korean data) here. Thanks to Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit for the link.
Well, I’m out of time and nowhere near getting everything in or done I wanted to do this morning. So, let me say the following:
STOP THE FUCKING PANIC! ALL OF YOU!! YES, YOU!!!
Don’t be sheep for the media or anyone else. If it is from the mainstream media, discount. If it is from someone saying this is just the flu, or not as bad as the flu, discount. Strike those two ends off and you have a far better chance of getting good and accurate data and/or analysis. Yes, you may lose an outlier, but it balances. Go for the data and do your own analysis is (always) the best option.
And, yes, I do recommend preparing for further lockdown. The legalities of such I will deal with another day, and yes I do think some politicians are making full use of the crisis and will need to be dealt with. The reality is that regardless of legality/liberty/etc. it is quite likely to happen. Food, drink, OTC’s, etc. get in stock and keep in stock. If it doesn’t happen, you’ve got them and can still use them.
Hope to have more to say later, including on this interesting study from ammo.com. Hoping to get a chance to review it fully later today.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 18Mar20
Okay, now I’m pissed. We need to finish this, and COVID-19 needs to go be dealt with permanently. Not quite the movie quote, but close enough. Honduras has shut down all cigar factories. If you thought that the U.S. was the only country shutting things down, well, you must be watching the major networks or reading the paper with a record. Stop it. The best thing you can do for yourself, outside of washing your hands, is to cut off or cut out the mainstream media.
Yes, the number of cases and number of deaths have gone up. Woo. You’ve been told this would happen no matter what, at least by responsible outlets. What matters now is the rate of increase and if we can flatten it out. We will not know that for several weeks, as Dr. Fauci has repeatedly said.
Meantime, an incident here prompts me to remind you that if you think you have COVID-19 or have been exposed to it, please don’t go to the ER or anywhere else unannounced, and if you have to call first responders — TELL THEM YOU MAY HAVE IT/HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO IT! Call your state COVID-19 line, call your provider, but for the love of Pete don’t be stupid and just go without calling to warn them you are coming. We don’t need any more first responders having to be quarantined because they didn’t know they needed full protocols.
Also, don’t give a false name, address, and phone number to the ER if you get tested. If you do that, and go back out in public, you are not just a jackass, but should face charges for willful spread and manslaughter charges if someone you cause to be infected dies. Also, if there is violence inflicted on you by those around you, you deserve it.
Facebook did some good shutting down factual articles on COVID-19 as spam (what do you expect from FB?), as the article I read on it led me to this interesting site courtesy of this article. Plan to add that link to the resources section below.
For all the brainless twits out there, while the worst hit are 60+, you are not immune and it can be bad for you too. For example, in France there are some 300 people in ICU, and more than half of them are under 60. Another doctor is reporting patients in ICU as young as 40, and that none of them had underlying health conditions. There are reports of others in the U.S. and elsewhere that are showing up in ICU without underlying health conditions. In Texas, new patients are showing a spread from 20s to 70s, with around half being 40 or below. In short, you too can be hit and hit hard, so if you are not willing to consider others, here’s a selfish reason to follow the precautions.
As for precautions, washing your hands frequently seems an even better idea based on the data in this paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on how long COVID-19 lasts in the air and on surfaces. Short take: on surfaces it can last more than 72 hours, and remains viable as an aerosol for more than 3 hours. Remember what I said about hitting most used surfaces in bathrooms every hour or two? There was and is a reason… Another resource for those collecting them is this NEJM section on COVID-19
Another reason to take part in quarantine/social distancing/whateveryoucallit is that according to this paper, up to 80 percent of the spread is from people who are either asymptomatic or otherwise not aware they have COVID-19. This article puts it closer to American. Hat tip to Instapundit for this one. Also, got these two links on quarantine and the law from Insty, so go read this and then go read this to learn more about the legality and precedents for what is going on. Would that more of the chest thumpers would read it, as a good solid debate on the Constitutionality and legality is needed and timely. That would take a degree of rationality that is all too rare in this pandemic.
There is more, much more, but I’m out of time this morning.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 6Mar20
Short and sweet this morning, as am having to go in to work waaaay early. Way to early IMO, but…
Stop with the panic. There is no need to panic here in the U.S. Yes, there are cases and it is here. Are we ‘wereallgoingtodiebecauseorangemanbad’ as the media and far too many politicians are saying? NO. Is our economy going to tank because of this? No. In fact, if anything, we have quite the opportunity to come out stronger and better. It will get interesting, and some sectors are going to be hit harder than others (travel/tourism for example). But, again, thanks to the economy and incentives, and with some judicious additional incentives, we could see a boom that could put all past booms to shame.
As always:
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not according to WHO, but most everyone else is saying yes, it is. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness