Ending the COVID-19 Updates

I’ve made the call to stop the updates. Right now, the numbers are meaningless, unreliable, and being used to stoke panic and push agendas. To compare the number of deaths to that of a war is both odious and deceitful, not to mention meaningless as we lose around this number to the flu (and we have lost far less than common accidents take out each day).

With the death numbers highly suspect, and the number of cases on a world-wide basis also highly suspect because a number of countries are believed to be significantly underreporting both cases and deaths (cough, China, cough). Essentially giving a bonus to hospitals/others for declaring a death as being from COVID-19, even if the person was not tested for the disease, has made U.S. death figures meaningless.

The repeated manipulation of the numbers by the mainstream media and certain politicians out to score points, does nothing good. It creates panic, and it creates opportunities for the unscrupulous. It does nothing to advance rational discussion or the marketplace of ideas.

I will continue to post links to interesting papers and articles, so that they can be discussed and at least some rational discussion can be put forth into the debate.

Frankly, I find it interesting that for all we have learned about COVID-19, we still don’t know that much. We actually still don’t know how it kills; rather, we have seen many patients die of cytokine storms when it provokes the body to attack itself, and an interesting group of younger victims who have had strokes as a result of infection. Beyond that, there is evidence that it interferes with hemoglobin and oxygen saturation on some level. But, we still don’t know exactly how and why it kills.

The origins do very much matter, as it is interesting, fascinating even, on a biomolecular structural level. How it mutates, and how fast it mutates, is going to make a huge difference in how it interacts with us both later this year and the years to come. There are a lot of questions about it’s structure and how it came to be that need answers, answers that can only come with time and proper study.

While I repeat what I’ve said all along, that whatever it is it is NOT an end-stage (finished) bioweapon. That said, you could not ask for much more out of a bioweapon, esp. one designed to take out a nation for a period of time rather kill everyone (economic versus destruction). The spread rate is far higher than our so-called experts believed at the start. It is transmissible when those infected are asymptomatic and many who have it remain asymptomatic. It is transmissible through multiple vectors, and no we still don’t know all of what and how their either. There are a number of other oddities and issues, but the fact remains that for all it is NOT an end-stage bioweapon is has certainly functioned as one on several levels.

By now, if you don’t know the basics, don’t know how to wash your hands, put on and use gloves and masks, and other aspects of dealing with this, not much can be done for you. So, there is no need to keep repeating the basics.

From now on, I intend to write about the interesting articles, and to do separate commentary on the political and economic aspects. For all that there is some connection between the two, the politics have started driving things well beyond the science.

For those of you who have regularly read and enjoyed my updates, my thanks. I hope you enjoy the articles to come.

COVID-19 11Mar20

Want to avoid the suffering of COVID-19? Do these three steps: 1. Shut off the media. 2. Wash your hands and follow other basic flu protocols. 3. Don’t panic.

Pretty much too late for that for most, but turning off the media is a good first step to a rational response to all that is going on. If you think you’ve got COVID-19 or have been exposed:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

I’m pleased to see that two of Indiana’s largest universities are implementing e-learning as a means of helping slow/stop the spread. A number of other colleges and universities are doing the same. Now if we could get all schools, colleges, and universities here and across the nation to do it… My recommendations of the last two days still stand. We need to get ahead of things to win The Game Of Loads And Vectors.

I’m also disgusted. I’m disappointed in the panic; disgusted at the reprehensible and frankly dishonest reporting and panic-mongering by the politico-media class; and, at the apathy towards the clear need to reform and refine our capabilities to fight threats like this.

As always:

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not according to WHO, but most everyone else is saying yes, it is. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 26Feb20

Not a lot of time this morning, will try to get more out later today but can’t promise as it is going to be a long day at work.

Following up on my post yesterday, the CDC is saying when, not if. One of the reasons I don’t think Europe will hold is that Merkel got her way and travel is not being effectively limited. Meantime, cases related to EU travel continue to climb. Bottom story of the morning is on the Tokyo Olympics. They should just scrap it now, but Abe is already facing calls for his government to step down over the Diamond Princess disaster so don’t expect an adult decision anytime soon.

As always:

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet, but likely will be in the next 1-5 days. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19: The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

The other day, I said I wanted to get back to Rod Dreher’s post on The China Apocalypse. That time is now, though I still can’t do it justice with the time I have this morning.

That said, in addition to locusts, a new biblical plague has hit China on top of COVID-19 and locusts: Frogs. Yes, tens of thousands of frogs have appeared on the roads of Wuhan and Nanjing. The locals fear earthquake, but most everyone else is going “wow” and “hmmmmm.” One has to wonder if given the swine flu, then the rest of this if Xi is hearing the music to Ben Hur when the appeals are made to Pharaoh, perhaps interspersed with “All You Zombies.”

Setting aside the prophecy, which I find more than a bit interesting, what has struck me most about this is that even a week ago I would have considered the response of this class of Chinese citizen to be impossible. The control of the upper elite is not just slipping, it’s taken one or more body blows.

For the elite, trained in the learning centers of and for the elite, to turn on the government like this is profound in a way that can’t be overstated. It is not a crack in the wall; rather, something on the order of a postern door or larger has been opened up and the troops are swarming through.

Is it the end of the current government and/or system? The ball says no answer at this time. Does it portend good things for that government? No, not in the least. What we can do is wait and see, and encourage and help those in Hong Kong and elsewhere to take what stands they can.

COVID19 25Feb20

The situation remains as it was: more than slightly FUBAR and still growing outside of China. That said, some signs of sanity seem to be breaking out in terms of proper and effective efforts at containment by a number of countries.

Sadly, the political class in the U.S. seems to determined to play politics with the lives of the Citizens they are sworn to serve. I’m not sure if it’s because they see a larger personal threat to them in the various investigations and such underway; or, they are so deranged as to no longer care. Either way, they need to be yanked up fast and hard. So too do certain bureaucrats, and I’m looking directly at Foggy Bottom and the lace panty brigade that overrode the CDC to bring known infected not only back to the U.S. but to do so in a plane full of others who were — and I do say were — in the clear. I believe the reports that Trump is furious about this.

The question that keeps coming up is when. When will we start seeing more cases here? When will it be deemed a pandemic? When will it become an epidemic here? When?

The fact is that there is no answer to any of those at this time. There just is not enough data to begin to make realistic determinations at this time.

That said, based on what is being seen right now and based on the proper response by the CDC and others, we could/should start seeing an increase of cases here in the U.S. in about two weeks as those exposed by people previously released too early or not caught in time begin to show symptoms. Keep in mind that it is now believed that it has an incubation period of 27 days. This is effectively a month’s period of time when people can pass it on without showing any symptoms themselves.

If all the efforts of the CDC and related agencies work/have worked, it will be a slow build with hopefully limited cases. If those efforts have not worked, there could be a massive number of cases.

Again, if all works we might not see a significant increase in cases for two to three months, perhaps a bit longer. Again, there simply is not enough real data to make a good prediction.

Right now, other than preparing (see yesterday for my revised suggestions), there is not much we can do but hang on. If you are religious, pray. If you believe in Karma or just good thoughts, think away. Meantime, no matter your choice in spirituality, stay informed and be prepared.

As always:

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet, but likely will be in the next 1-5 days. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

Since last Friday, much has changed. I mentioned last week that I was considering moving up my personal DEFCON list — and I am doing so. I have moved from Sit Up to Really?!?

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared. As part of raising my personal DEFCON, I’m going to be making some changes to my preparation list. Why raise and change?

First, while the origins are important, what truly matters now is that it appears to be spread when carriers are asymptomatic; it spreads by multiple vectors, not all of which are understood at this time; and, while the evidence is anecdotal at this time, there appear to be far more “super infectors” than normal.

There have always been super infectors in every epidemic. Just look up Typhoid Mary. The number associated with COVID19 just appears to keep growing.

Add in that the infection is not the normal bell curve, as the infection rate in children is so low (based on known data) as to be statistically zero, and we have something truly interesting. That said, let me say again that this is NOT a Capt. Tripps or even close based on what we are seeing. Again, there is cause to be concerned, but not for panic.

Second, it has now spread well beyond China. I’m not going to get into the Chinese government lying about it, or using a variety of means to delay travel restrictions that would have benefited the rest of the world, other than to note that they did and it screwed the rest of the world.

For me, what tipped me over to raising the DEFCON was Iran and Italy. I am not happy about South Korea, or that Japan’s bureaucracy may have screwed them over on a massive level. To the point I think Abe out to just buy tantos bulk and hand them out top to bottom in the appropriate ministries.

To be frank, I think a lot of us were hoping that South Korea, Japan, and Australia would be a buffer, and while that may happen it isn’t looking good right now save for Australia.

Late last week, word began to go out that Iran, which has no known exposure through travel and such, had cases. It has now been reported (though not in the U.S. that I have found) that officials in the Iranian government are admitting that it is in every major city no matter the official pronouncements. Take the latter with the same tun of salt that one uses with the official word out of China. To top it off, at least one case in Lebanon has been linked back to the outbreak in Iran.

Given that it is a totalitarian state, and given what I can find out about public health and related systems, Iran could well go the way of China. In any event, I’m willing to bet that more than one infected person has left since the outbreak, and to places other than Lebanon. To those countries or places that are hosting QUDS and other clandestine Iranian visits: Welcome to the wonderful world of COVID19!

Now, add in the outbreak(s) in Italy, and you have something spreading far faster than anyone wanted or hoped.

This morning, it is being reported that Britain expects to be hit before the end of the week. My faith in Europe holding as such is not high. I see a couple of countries that I think may be able to pull it off, but am not sure about most of the others including a couple of the “big” countries.

In short, the effort to contain the worst of it to SE Asia has failed. Given what I mentioned above, there never was any chance of stopping it from spreading. Accordingly, the CDC’s approach has been on slowing down the rate of infection to give time to develop treatments, vaccines, and to get the resources in place to deal with it. Given that such could fail, they have also been making preparations to quarantine small to major areas via shutting down schools, businesses, and curtailing travel. Prudent, and a good step to take.

I’m revising my previous preparation list a bit. So, here’s what I recommend now.

First, get with your doctor or pharmacist and get 90-day supplies (or more) of your medicines, as well as any OTCs and supplements. The FDA reportedly has a list of 150 drugs that they expect to see in short supply (soon, also ignore the blatant politics in the story) as a result of the loss of Chinese production. While I don’t have that list, here is the current FDA info on drug shortages. Given that China also provides raw materials and precursor materials for an even wider array of drugs and supplements… There will be shortages soon, so do this first.

Second, the primary impact will be economic. Drugs, steel, electronics — the list goes on. Thanks to the Trump economy and a number of new treaties, the U.S. economy is in the best shape it has been in decades. Is it going to hurt us? Yes. Could that downturn lead to an even greater economy? Yes.

People are waking up to the mistake that has been our previous China policy. There was already decoupling underway, and it is now accelerating. There are efforts already underway to return medical and other manufacturing to the U.S., as well as efforts to develop new resources in and outside of SE Asia. Thanks to the economy and economic incentives, as well as a still-improving regulatory environment, businesses have the liquidity and incentive to partake and accelerate. More on this later.

That said, retooling or setting up new production facilities — even under an emergency basis — will take at least a year. Some may get into production sooner, as you can bet the government/administration will be doing all it can to make that possible. But, the majority will not.

This re-investment in America and American production, along with helping others get going, can lead to an even greater economy. Keep in mind, the Trump Doctrine enshrines America First, but nowhere does it say America Only. More on this later.

So, what to do? As before, get with a financial advisor, CPA/tax preparer/other if you have them to plan what to do for short- and longer-term downturns. While professionals recommend having three months worth of normal bills in savings, few of us do. So, as quickly as you can, try to set aside 2-weeks to a month’s worth of bills both in savings and in cash. Why cash? It comes in handy in emergencies and gives you a buffer that you can hold on to or put back in your accounts later. Think on it a bit.

Third, look at what other supplies you get that may be dependent in whole or in part on China. Me, I keep a few months supply of razor blades on hand (esp. after dumping Gillette and the other expense brands), but I plan to up that to a full year. I have a several month stock of toilet tissue, but even though it’s not linked to China (as far as I know) I plan to add more (see the story on the great toilet paper robbery in Hong Kong). Thinking about a new phone? Might want to do it now. Oh, and as with toilet tissue, boost your stock of feminine hygiene products. Make sure you have plenty of normal hygiene items such as soap, shampoo, dish detergent, and especially laundry soap. If it gets bad, you are going to be wanting to wash clothes often as a precaution. Stock up on hand sanitizer while you can. Anything that can be used to clean and sterilize is probably a good thing to be sure you have on hand.

Fourth, I am increasing my normal food stocks. As much as freezer space and such allow, I’m cooking ahead as much as I can so that I have a variety of frozen meals ready to go. I’m building up canned and similar items, especially as I’m ketogenic and would like to stay that way even in a quarantine. Also, I believe in surviving with style, so am making sure I have as much good food put away as possible.

The strategic coffee reserve is in good shape, but I am going to expand it as I see that and the strategic tobacco reserve as investments on preserving the peace and the safety of others. Probably should lay in a bit more alcohol, but that’s low priority compared to coffee and basic food stuffs. While I don’t anticipate the loss of utilities, I am laying in a good stock of water just in case. Again, since we don’t understand all the vectors, contamination is a (remote at this time) possibility. The strategic hot sauce reserve is in good shape as well — amazing what you can eat with enough hot sauce on it.

No, not stocking in MREs and such, at least no more than I already have on hand. I’m working towards a months worth of meals, mostly frozen as I do expect there to be no major disruptions of power. That said, the quarantine may be 30 days based on what is being learned. I may add in some freeze-dried eggs or such, just because my normal supply of eggs might not last a month.

The last thing right now is getting a mask. Remember, the surgical masks don’t work. You need an N95 or equivalent. I’ve got some already on hand because they are useful for yard work, home projects, and during pollen season. If and as I can, I may lay in a few more but I think the other things above are far more important right now.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet, but likely will be in the next 1-5 days. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

More soon. Lots more I hope, as there are many things I could not get to this morning. For one thing, I want to get back to this article on China by Rod Dreher. The locusts are weird but interesting; but, what really has me taking notice is what is happening within Chinese social media and who is involved. As I said yesterday, even last week I would have said such was impossible.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19 23FEB20

Working on a longer post, as there is a lot happening. In fact, some things just got very weird on top of unprecedented. The public reaction in China is something I would have considered impossible last week. More on that soon.

REPEATING: If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols and fairly standard basic personal hygiene.

More soon.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19 22Feb20

Not going to get into too much detail this morning, but do recommend keeping an eye on the region pictured.

REPEATING: If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Depending on how a couple of parameters go in the next few days, I am considering raising my personal DEFCON from Sit Up to Really?!? Much depends on what we see outside of China in that time. At this time, I still see the major impacts as economic.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols and fairly standard basic personal hygiene.

More soon.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

I had originally intended to do a starter post on the economic cascade effects that have started. However, I think we are entering a very interesting period where the data will tell us how things are going to go. To determine that, watch the blooms.

The bloom of infections is starting to drop in China, at least as far as we can tell. Again, don’t trust any official figures from the Chinese government as they lie, and have lied from the start. That drop, however, appears to be confirmed by at least some non-government sources in China.

They key to this bloom is that it will grow again once the draconian measures in place are eased. They will have to be eased for economic reasons if nothing else. Once they are, the bloom will grow. How large and how fast it grows, and how fast it stops growing, will tell us a lot.

The blooms are growing, however, in countries around China. This is not, repeat not, unexpected. What we are looking at now is how large and how fast those blooms grow, and if they can be contained to limited areas. If they can, good news. If not, bad news.

There are smaller blooms starting elsewhere, such as the U.S. However, keep in mind that a good part of that bloom are Citizens who have been repatriated from infectious areas, including those known to be infected. That there will be more, many more perhaps, is a given. The efforts so far are on slowing it down, not keeping it out altogether as that is impossible at this point. I do wish they had implemented travel restrictions and quarantines sooner. If wishes were horses…

My own estimate right now is that we could see some massive blooms in SE Asia, all the way down towards Australia and New Zealand. Australia is the one to watch, as it is the closest first world enclave to China. They have enacted a “proper” response based off of very modern public health and public hygiene systems.

If those systems have indeed provided an adequate response, the first place we will truly see it is in Australia. If not, again, the first place we will see it is in Australia. The lessons learned from Australia can be applied to either improve the existing plans and protocols, or to make changes with enough time to prevent a complete disaster. We hope.

Given that there appear to be a number of “superspreaders” with this virus; that it can be transmitted while asymptomatic; that it can be transmitted by multiple vectors; and that we really don’t have good data yet on transmission values (or death), well, much is in up in the air.

Add in that in multiple countries there were people who were allowed in who spread it asymptomatic, and that no effort to find everyone they came in contact with will be 100 percent effective… Those are the new blooms to pay close attention to. Again, if things continue to work well in the U.S. and other first world countries, we should be relatively okay. The slow-down of the spread buys time to develop vaccines, effective treatments, and even more effective protocols for containment.

While I am not raising my alert level yet, I am strongly recommending not traveling to anywhere in SE Asia other than Australia or New Zealand. This does include Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. Have plans for the Olympics in Japan? Cancel and see if you can get refunds. Business absolutely requires working in/with those areas? Telecommute.

Oh, some quick thoughts on a couple of areas.

First, there is a large possibility that it may be more deadly in China because of the massive (and sometimes deadly) air pollution in major cities and/or regions; smoking habits on top of said air pollution; nutrition and basic health; and, public hygiene/sanitation. Again, time will tell.

Second, I really would love for someone to check the grey water systems on the Diamond Princess. Given the increasing number of reports that one mode of transmission is via fecal matter, I think tests on white, grey, and black systems could tell us a lot. Given the level of response over there, am not going to bet that such tests will be run.

Side note is that a number of the systems and such pushed by the so-called Green New Deal types could be almost tailor-made to encourage epidemics and/or pandemics. Again, good reason to check those recycling systems on the Diamond Princess. Sadly, these days I’m not as inclined to consider such “oops” as poor planning, but rather as intentional.

Third, there is some hope that better sanitation systems and practices can help contain the outbreak to some degree. The better the systems, and the more people follow good to excellent hygiene, the better.

Fourth, pray that it does not get a foothold in Africa, particularly south of the Sahara. If it does, it will have a second natural reservoir in which it can lie dormant, mutate, and/or otherwise come forth on a regular basis to plague the world.

If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Depending on how a couple of parameters go in the next few days, I am considering raising my personal DEFCON from Sit Up to Really?!? Much depends on what we see outside of China in that time. At this time, I still see the major impacts as economic.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols and fairly standard basic personal hygiene.

More soon.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID19 Update 20 Feb 20

There are a number of topics I want/need to cover, but time is a hard enemy to beat. There is containment, which has not worked as well as hoped. There is some serious weirdness with how this virus is spreading and who it hits, for example there are effectively zero (statistically speaking) cases in younger patients. The economic impact is going to be huge, far more than expected if things don’t change for the better and soon.

First up for today is an interesting take on the horror-show that was the quarantine on the Diamond Princess. I don’t think there is a single expert out there who doesn’t see it as a disaster. By rights, done right, it should have been a model for quarantine and containment. So, what went wrong?

According to this man, Iwata Kentaro, it was the bureaucrats. For what it is worth, he is an MD, Ph.D., with Kobe University’s Division of Infections Diseases Therapeutics — in other words, he is a specialist in things like this. Listen to what he has to say, look up his background, and make your own informed decision.

I will say right now that if you plan to travel to Japan for the Olympics this summer, I recommend against it. To be honest, I recommend against any travel to SE Asia at this time, and for the foreseeable future. Have to attend a meeting? Telecommute.

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released new data (covered here by the Irish Times) which indicates that COVID19 is 20 times more deadly than seasonal flu. There are also some other oddities in there. However, keep in mind that this is still early data; and, moreover, it is data approved and issued by the Chinese government. The Chinese government has lied about COVID19 from the start, and apparently continues to do so even as they seek to censor their own people and others who expose those lies. Take it with a huge grain of salt.

Let me continue to note that it will be weeks, if not months, before there is sufficient accurate data to begin to understand COVID19 and what is going to happen. No matter what you read, any effective vaccine is probably at least a year away.

An interesting note while I’m thinking about it. There are a number of people crowing about bringing various types of manufacturing back to the U.S., including drug and medical supply production. Yes, it can be done. Personally, I hope it is done. However, re-tooling facilities of any type to do any new manufacturing means at least a year lag, as it will take that long to re-tool, reconfigure, and start producing products.

As for some of the industries being affected by COVID19 outside of China, see this update from Apple. There are more like this coming out in a variety of industries, feel free to share links to them in the comments if you like.

Oh, by the way, despite a degree and a goodly number of published stories (and even a couple of awards), WalMart says I’m not a real journalist. I contacted them in regards a shortage in rubbing alcohol that has been noticed. I asked if this was related to the situation with China. Deafening silence. No idea if it is or not, since they won’t talk to a mere online journalist/blogger/whatever.

If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Depending on how a couple of parameters go in the next few days, I am considering raising my personal DEFCON from Sit Up to Really?!? Much depends on what we see outside of China in that time. At this time, I still see the major impacts as economic.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, then follow with hand sanitizer, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness