Tag: SARS-CoV-2

COVID-19 26Mar20

There is huge news this morning, news that may or may not get the coverage it should, both in terms of quality and quantity. In some ways, it is not unexpected but is rocking the epidemiological community.

The reason I started doing these updates was that I did not think the story was getting the coverage it should. One of the things I do is look at data and spot patterns. I did not like the pattern I was seeing even before the mainstream media started paying attention. It was clear something was going on; that it was far worse than China was admitting based off what data could be obtained; and, it was also clear that China was flat out lying with the data provided. It didn’t take much of a dive into Chinese social media (or into commercial intel) to figure that out.

One of the first places I found that was taking it seriously and trying to model what was happening was the Imperial College of London. Their model(s) were one of the first efforts to identify, chart, and project and I, like many others, linked to them and used them in our analysis.

This morning, I awoke to the news that Neil Ferguson at the ICM has revised, yet again, the projections. This is the third pivot, and while a lot of people are going to be castigating him, I’m not yet prepared to. For while we knew the data from China was incorrect, it was all we had. The problem is, in any model, that when you put garbage in, you get garbage out. GIGO applies today as it always has. While I did consider his previous advice on herd immunity — a reaction plan quickly dropped by the government — was idiotic, it was to some degree understandable.

The short version for those that don’t follow the link: it’s bad, but both the UK and the US should have enough beds and capacity to handle what is to come. It will get very close in some areas, and a few may hit capacity, but the death toll will be much, much lower. Seriously, go read the article.

Here in the U.S., I suspect that NY and California are going to be our two major hotspots where this may not hold. The unconscionable actions of DeBlasio in NYC in the early days have made a bad situation catastrophic. Previous decisions by him and by Gov. Cuomo pretty much guaranteed they would not be ready to handle something like this. California, well, much the same boat. It is anecdotal for now, but the countries and areas that had tight government controls on, or socialized centralized government healthcare, have faired the worst. An interesting point for debate sometime soon.

This news is going to change our response as well. Again, I will point out that we had to plan for and initiate a response based on worst-case until we had enough accurate data to understand the situation. We are now getting accurate data in amounts that will allow that, though we won’t have a truly clear picture for weeks. However, we have enough to begin considering options while we watch what transpires between now and the end of the 15-day period.

Also, I will admit I was wrong about masks. I did not think they would be effective under the circumstances we thought we were facing. The fact is, there is now evidence that if everyone were to wear surgical masks (and if we had them for people to wear them), it would slow the infection rate down. Note: just wearing one yourself won’t do a lot of good. This will only work if everyone wears one. A bit of anecdotal data on this is here. Again, the problem there is that we would have to have them, and right now we don’t.

There is a lot to learn from what has happened/is happening. There needs to be some serious and intense debate about it, and we need to massively overhaul and update the CDC and FDA — including trimming out the major mission creep in both and returning them to their original and vital functions.

Again, ignore the media and the breathless fixation on cases and deaths. Do not give in to the panic they are trying to create. Yes, as noted before, cases are going to spike both because of transmission and the rapid expansion of testing, which will generate a false spike as existing cases are confirmed. Yes, sadly, people will die but the number is going to be far less than most other causes including the flu.

As I noted yesterday: “What are the numbers to look at? First, what is the number of patients requiring treatment in a hospital. Second, what is the number of people requiring treatment in an ICU? Third, what is the number of patients who require ventilator support? You might be surprised at the age ranges of those needing ICU and/or ventilator time, as a surprising number of them are NOT in the at-risk range.”

Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 25Mar20

First, if you are depending on the mainstream media for accurate and useful information, you are endangering your physical and mental health. It is not about how many cases there are, what celeb or leader has it, people having to change their wedding plans, or how many have died. The media has both a monetary incentive and an agenda-driven incentive to stoke panic. Remember, if it bleeds it leads, and this is an industry that has been hemorrhaging viewers/readers and revenue for some time now. Don’t give in to bad info and deliberate efforts to incite panic.

Second, the number of cases and the number of deaths really don’t matter right now. The number of cases (as has been pointed out here, in the task force briefings, and elsewhere) are spiking for two different reasons.

One is spread. The other is the expansion of testing, and I suspect once testing ramps up and really gets going we are going to find that it is far more widespread than the current numbers show.

The other is that testing is escalating (despite the FDA, who once again has played bureaucratic roadblock to an effective response). As more tests are used, and don’t have to be saved for bad cases, the number will go up. Most of those are going to be with people who were asymptomatic or had minor symptoms.

What are the numbers to look at? First, what is the number of patients requiring treatment in a hospital. Second, what is the number of people requiring treatment in an ICU? Third, what is the number of patients who require ventilator support? You might be surprised at the age ranges of those needing ICU and/or ventilator time, as a surprising number of them are NOT in the at-risk range.

The whole purpose of the lockdown is to slow the rate of spread, so as to avoid overwhelming the medical system as has happened in far too many countries. Go do a quick search on the number of countries that are refusing to treat people 60 or up, or otherwise at high risk of death as they no longer have the ability to do so. It is scary, and more than one are First World countries.

That said, we have a new set of numbers to start watching this week: those being treated with hydroxychloroquine, by itself or in tandem with other drugs. Here’s a fairly good read on the testing results in France and the U.S. Here’s a link to the French research paper; a link to a Chinese research paper; and, an interview with a U.S. doctor who has treated 350 patients with great success. We should be getting more numbers, and a better assessment of effectiveness, very quickly.

As a quick aside, if you need yet another example of how run-away bureaucracy has hindered an effective response, the CDC was advised in 2005 that Chloroquine was effective in treating coronaviruses. Either they didn’t make a note, or didn’t care. Yet another of why the CDC and FDA need a major overhaul and to be refocused on their prime missions. Here’s a link to the paper.

Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

There are a lot of good stories out there about people helping others, particularly those who are on the front lines. A front line that has grown to include grocery clerks, truckers, people in logistic centers, and more. Note that it is the “working stiffs” who are keeping things together for us all. Take time to thank them, and do something for them if you can.

What happens now depends on what happens with the treatments. The lockdown can’t continue. It is destroying our economy, and posing a serious danger to our civil liberties. What is needed is a plan to return the country to “normal” or what passes for it. President Trump has said such is in the works, though it is evolving and will evolve based on how things go. Frankly, I think that sharing even a bit of the plan, and emphasizing there is a larger one even if evolving, will go a long way to helping stop the panic and growing anger.

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 24Mar20

Please, please, please ignore the mainstream media right now. No, the President did not tell the idiots to take fish tank cleaner. It’s not even the same compound. We are not all going to die because OrangeManBad, or anything else (except maybe cabin fever). What is going on in Washington with the stimulus package is beyond disgusting. It is beyond despicable. It is flat out Evil, with an out-of-touch political class that is more than willing to put your health, safety, civil liberties, and fortune(s) at risk in order to enrich themselves and obtain what they can’t get any other way. To risk the lives of the people they swore to serve shows that they hold our lives, safety, and fortunes in contempt simply because they have no honor, much less Sacred Honor.

Yes, the numbers are jumping. It is both a function of spread, and a function of increased testing. As more and faster tests come into play, it is guaranteed we are going to find cases that were missed before, particularly with those who are or were asymptomatic. That is going to make the numbers jump.

Why the delays in testing? I’ve written about it before, linking to a number of articles. If you want to see why bureaucracies can’t handle something like this, read this detailed account of how the FDA mishandled things from the start. Just as with the CDC screwups, it all worked to make things far worse than they should have been. Both agencies need a major overhaul, and to be forced to return to what they were created to do, rather than the mission creep they prefer to do.

There’s more, but frankly I’m dealing with both literal and figurative pain right now. I’ve lived with the literal for a while now, some days are better than others. The figurative comes from the absolutely amazing levels of Stupid and Evil I awoke to this morning. Between the media, politicians when we need statesmen, and people doing stupid things (and having the media blame every one of them on the President), I’m tired already. Will try to do better later or tomorrow.

If you know of a local business that needs business, drop me a line and I will add it to the list.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 23Mar20

This one will be short, as the current breathtaking abrogation of their sworn oaths by one particular group of politicians has me beyond livid. I will #RememberInNovember who put their own venal self-interest ahead of the Republic and the lives and well-being of its Citizens. At least Clyborn was honest about seizing the opportunity (or can a Democrat pounce?) to “restructure things to fit our vision” A pox on them all.

Second, I remain agnostic about whether this is a natural or man-made virus. That said, I am taking the latest study being trumpeted in the media with a tun of salt. The Chinese have bought far too many academic institutions, and academics, for me to trust anything that comes out right now that exonerates them. Wait and watch on this one, and remember that there are at least two academic papers out there (hopefully now in peer review) that say it is man-made.

Third, glad to add another business to the local businesses to support section. If you know of other businesses that should be added, drop me a line here or on Twitter to share info.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 22Mar20

For what I am sadly sure will not be the last time, please stop the panic. This is not Captain Tripps though it is also not the flu. Food will be there, the system is catching up, slowly, to the idiotic panic buying of the last week or so. Just stop it. Sit back, chill, and THINK.

For what I am also sadly sure will not be the last time, THE NUMBER OF CASES AND DEATHS IS NOT WHAT IS TRULY IMPORTANT! These numbers are being used, knowingly and willingly, to incite panic and overreaction. Don’t be a chump! While I feel for, and pray for, those who have it and those who will die, the death numbers in the U.S. are going to remain well below that of the flu and any number of other things. If we are smart, and I’m beginning to question that…

The numbers that count are: 1. The number of cases requiring ICU support, and the percentage for that appears to be well above the normal flu; 2. The number of cases that require ventilator support, and again, that number appears to be well above that of the normal flu. And, yes, COVID-19/CCP virus is not a flu, that’s part of the problem (and a reason those comparing it to the flu are stupid). These are the numbers that have overwhelmed health care systems in multiple countries. These are the numbers that concern doctors and others associated with maintaining our healthcare.

And, yes, our numbers are spiking. Why? Testing. Testing that is becoming (far later than it should thanks to the bureaucrats) not only more widely available, but even faster (and hopefully more accurate) tests are starting to ship. Do we have enough? No. But, since the red tape got cut, the numbers have been ramping up even faster than first projected. Don’t believe me? Look it up, the numbers are there for those who will look and think. The spike we are seeing is a good thing. Don’t believe me? Read this. It allows us to isolate people and locations as needed, not via mass shut down of society, a move that is dangerous. It will enable a better and more effective response.

For those focused on age, a side note that you may want to look at this story. Interesting.

If you are still getting your information from the mass/old media, please stop it. They are deliberately inciting panic for both revenue (readers/viewers/listeners) and for partisan political objectives. Don’t believe me, then go read this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this. The sad thing is, I could probably link to three times this number of posts and fact checks. If I were still a member of any journalism organization, I would be resigned from them in protest and disgust. The even sadder thing is that far too many either don’t care or don’t believe that the media is lying even when confronted with facts. Emotions trump facts for far too many. It’s almost enough to make me wish that this story was true.

For anyone who believes anything the Chinese say, or are joining in on the whole idiotic raaaaacccciiiiiissssst bullshit, read this. One of the reasons we had to react strongly is because we could depend on any information from China being wrong, in fact, a lie. If you want to have some fun, look at the number of mainstream media outlets who are pushing Chinese propaganda and the racism bull who have also taken money, large sums of money in fact, to print/broadcast Chinese propaganda. That’s an interesting (and scary) bit of homework for the students. Want something interesting if a bit scary, read this on how what the media is trumpeting is a lie.

While I haven’t gone through all the numbers, this report is interesting. As we start to get real and accurate numbers, expect to see a lot of revisions to models, reports, and such. Also keep in mind that, as I and others have told you, no matter what our death rate is going to be far lower than China’s (and Italy, Iran, etc.) per capita for a variety of reasons. There are differences in public and private health and sanitation systems, industrial and personal hygiene, air pollution, cigarette smoking rates, population age and health, and a few other factors.

There is a lot more I could get into, but I feel like dreck this morning and would much rather go cook on my two weeks off without pay from my part-time gig. Yes, we had someone stupid come to work sick, insist on getting up close and personal (and shaking hands) with almost everyone (not me, I tended to keep away from them for other reasons), and then deciding they had the flu. Allegedly they were tested, but I don’t think the results could have returned in the time frame where they announced this person had the stomach flu.

To cut it short, I asked my doctor if I should continue to work the part-time gig and was immediately asked if I needed a note. I’m still getting used to being considered “at risk” for a number of things, and don’t really fully agree I am (then again, my mind still tends to think of me as being 20, though the body just laughs), but decided I really didn’t want to do true COVID-19 first-hand reporting. If you care to help me out, hit the tip jar please.

What I may start spending more time on are the good stories coming out of this. Of people pulling together to do something constructive and positive. One such story is about Hotel Tango and Cardinal Spirits (Bloomington) making hand sanitizer. Hotel Tango is a place I recommend you go when they can reopen: outstanding and interesting drink menu and veteran owned. Or this story, one of several, on companies and people stepping up to the ventilator shortage. Shortage? Pah. Get the bureaucrats out of the way, stand back, and watch it disappear as American ingenuity and exceptionalism get unleashed. Holds true for other areas as well. Hope to see more stories like this, where a landlord waived rent so a restaurant could pay its employees.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 19Mar20

Not sure how to title this morning’s brief, as it will cover conspiracy theories, odd and interesting, and start new sections on sources of information and local businesses that can use some help.

First, let’s start with some facts. First, it is not racist to call it the Wuhan, China, or Chinese coronavirus/flu/etc. That is absolute bullshit being peddled by bought and paid for whores. No, strike that: that is an insult to hard working professionals who actually give value for the money unlike most media and far too many academics. Yes, echoing Heinlein a bit there. Anyone pushing that tripe needs to be told hard and fast to sod off.

One of the reasons we are where we are is China. China lied, obfuscated, and much more. As a result, they guaranteed the spread to other countries, and it must be noted that if not for the travel ban by President Trump (to the tune of screams, tantrums, shouts of racism, and trips to the fainting couch by the unserious) we would be in far worse shape.

One the largest problems, outside of the spread, to come from the willful and deliberate actions of the Chinese government under Xi, is the fact that we can trust no data out of China. Period. We can, and should, note it and where it checks out in comparison to data gathered in open countries and cultures, make use of it. Net result is that we truly won’t have good, solid, useful data for another six months or so. We are gathering data fast about the virus itself, as scientists are starting to literally study it atom by atom; but, that takes a while to process and we are just starting to truly learn it’s vectors, load data, and other essential information for the Game Of Loads And Vectors. We are learning, and learning fast, but it also means we are making decisions on very incomplete information.

So, what do you do in that case? Do you make decisions based on best-case or worst-case scenarios? Go for a middle approach? Truly smart people base off the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes. Does this mean we may overreact to the virus? Yes. In fact, I will go so far as to say it’s guaranteed to some extent. Does this mean the end of the Republic and all it stands for? Only if we let it, either by letting bad bills go through that enact bad laws (which go unchallenged) or by reacting with words and actions on par with Antifa.

The latter is why I’ve lost patience with the chest thumpers. I’ve backed away from some people I formerly respected, and am fast losing respect for far too many others. I’m torn between amusement and disgust at a number of them for the conspiracy theories being put forth. Are the Democrats/Deep State/Republicans/Etc taking advantage of this crisis for their own purposes? Yes. Next question. Is the media deliberately stoking a crisis for fun and profit? Yes. Next question.

Where I have a problem with those taking advantage of the situation boils down to: is what they are doing putting an agenda/politics/their own gain ahead of the Republic and the life and health of its Citizens? If so, I am making notes as that group does not care one iota for anyone but themselves, and would be just as happy if I or my loved ones die so long as it advances them and their cause. Such people are a cancer in the civic body, and need to be excised as fast as possible. In some cases, I advocate immediately (Champaign, IL mayor and council) via recall or other valid means. In others, vote them out and if you can’t vote directly, you can support any opponents they may have running against them that fit your perspectives. Make notes, make informed decisions, then vote. Oh, and I fully agree with Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit: “Concede nothing to the left. They bring nothing to the table.” I would add they bring nothing, but will steal anything and everything not nailed down to the table.

What we don’t need is panic, and there is far too much of it. Yes, the media has encouraged this even before it left China. ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ is an almost ancient mantra within the media. Mysterious disease, mass deaths, huge infection rate, lies and omissions by the Chinese government: it’s like crack for an addict when it comes to the mass media. In an era of declining viewership/readership and revenues, hell yes they jumped in and spun it up. The fact that the arrival of COVID-19/China Virus offered up partisan political advantages (tanking the economy before the election, multiple means to attack the bad orange man, advantages for the DNC primaries, etc.) was just icing on the cake. It is why you should not listen/read/watch them, and take nothing they say as anything but a lie. Lot’s of lies to choose from, may list them all another day. Well, wait, someone else has already done so.

Now, far too many are panicking in the other direction. The it’s not legal/this is stupid/it’s just the flu crowd are indeed panicking and are as bad in their own way as the media. That’s how you get things like this focusing on a novel written a decade or three ago and other coincidences; or, how you get this speculating on the Diamond Princess as if it weren’t a total fiasco. Just as our CDC royally fucked up the initial response here in the U.S. (see previous posts for links and discussion), the Japanese bureaucracy kicked off the epidemiologist there because he warned them they were doing all the wrong things. He was right. What should have been a textbook laboratory experiment and exercise in how to do it right turned into a blinding beacon of how to do it wrong. Which also means numbers from the Diamond Princess can’t be taken at face value. They are skewed because of the fuck-up. Doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them, but they can’t be used as a straight data set. That said, there is a somewhat more reasoned and interesting take on the data (as well as S. Korean data) here. Thanks to Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit for the link.

Well, I’m out of time and nowhere near getting everything in or done I wanted to do this morning. So, let me say the following:

STOP THE FUCKING PANIC! ALL OF YOU!! YES, YOU!!!

Don’t be sheep for the media or anyone else. If it is from the mainstream media, discount. If it is from someone saying this is just the flu, or not as bad as the flu, discount. Strike those two ends off and you have a far better chance of getting good and accurate data and/or analysis. Yes, you may lose an outlier, but it balances. Go for the data and do your own analysis is (always) the best option.

And, yes, I do recommend preparing for further lockdown. The legalities of such I will deal with another day, and yes I do think some politicians are making full use of the crisis and will need to be dealt with. The reality is that regardless of legality/liberty/etc. it is quite likely to happen. Food, drink, OTC’s, etc. get in stock and keep in stock. If it doesn’t happen, you’ve got them and can still use them.

Hope to have more to say later, including on this interesting study from ammo.com. Hoping to get a chance to review it fully later today.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 18Mar20

Okay, now I’m pissed. We need to finish this, and COVID-19 needs to go be dealt with permanently. Not quite the movie quote, but close enough. Honduras has shut down all cigar factories. If you thought that the U.S. was the only country shutting things down, well, you must be watching the major networks or reading the paper with a record. Stop it. The best thing you can do for yourself, outside of washing your hands, is to cut off or cut out the mainstream media.

Yes, the number of cases and number of deaths have gone up. Woo. You’ve been told this would happen no matter what, at least by responsible outlets. What matters now is the rate of increase and if we can flatten it out. We will not know that for several weeks, as Dr. Fauci has repeatedly said.

Meantime, an incident here prompts me to remind you that if you think you have COVID-19 or have been exposed to it, please don’t go to the ER or anywhere else unannounced, and if you have to call first responders — TELL THEM YOU MAY HAVE IT/HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO IT! Call your state COVID-19 line, call your provider, but for the love of Pete don’t be stupid and just go without calling to warn them you are coming. We don’t need any more first responders having to be quarantined because they didn’t know they needed full protocols.

Also, don’t give a false name, address, and phone number to the ER if you get tested. If you do that, and go back out in public, you are not just a jackass, but should face charges for willful spread and manslaughter charges if someone you cause to be infected dies. Also, if there is violence inflicted on you by those around you, you deserve it.

Facebook did some good shutting down factual articles on COVID-19 as spam (what do you expect from FB?), as the article I read on it led me to this interesting site courtesy of this article. Plan to add that link to the resources section below.

For all the brainless twits out there, while the worst hit are 60+, you are not immune and it can be bad for you too. For example, in France there are some 300 people in ICU, and more than half of them are under 60. Another doctor is reporting patients in ICU as young as 40, and that none of them had underlying health conditions. There are reports of others in the U.S. and elsewhere that are showing up in ICU without underlying health conditions. In Texas, new patients are showing a spread from 20s to 70s, with around half being 40 or below. In short, you too can be hit and hit hard, so if you are not willing to consider others, here’s a selfish reason to follow the precautions.

As for precautions, washing your hands frequently seems an even better idea based on the data in this paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on how long COVID-19 lasts in the air and on surfaces. Short take: on surfaces it can last more than 72 hours, and remains viable as an aerosol for more than 3 hours. Remember what I said about hitting most used surfaces in bathrooms every hour or two? There was and is a reason… Another resource for those collecting them is this NEJM section on COVID-19

Another reason to take part in quarantine/social distancing/whateveryoucallit is that according to this paper, up to 80 percent of the spread is from people who are either asymptomatic or otherwise not aware they have COVID-19. This article puts it closer to American. Hat tip to Instapundit for this one. Also, got these two links on quarantine and the law from Insty, so go read this and then go read this to learn more about the legality and precedents for what is going on. Would that more of the chest thumpers would read it, as a good solid debate on the Constitutionality and legality is needed and timely. That would take a degree of rationality that is all too rare in this pandemic.

There is more, much more, but I’m out of time this morning.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 17Mar20

Who am I to write these updates and talk about COVID-19 along with geopolitics and/or defense/national security issues? Legitimate question. Much nicer than how some on twitter are castigating anyone who disagrees with them, or that thinks the steps taken are prudent.

To answer the polite question, here’s a link to my profile on LinkedIn. To pull from my about me section: “Writer, photographer, and consultant with extensive background in Defense/National Security including disaster preparedness/emergency management, and medical/biomedical R&D. ” I sort of hate to admit it, but I’ve now been writing for more than 30 years. Among the bullet points are • Service as liaison to BIO, National Association of Seed and Venture Funds, and other organizations • Extensive experience in national defense and intelligence arena. Probably well over a thousand articles along with a few books at this point. Yes, I’ve covered a good bit of medical/biomedical research, and even participated in some of it.

I also have my Basic MEMS, that is Military Emergency Management System, certification and badge. This means I’ve had all the coursework, including the WMD course, for being an On Scene Commander in an emergency. The next step would have been doing practicums and taking a few more courses so as to earn the Advanced MEMS and have served as an On Scene Commander at a few events.

So, yes, I do have some knowledge of what I’m talking about in my daily updates. I suspect I have far more than most, if not all, of the mainstream reporters in DC. Then again, they are so blinded by partisan politics right now, I doubt any real knowledge makes it through the hate. Want an example? Look at this despicable and disgraceful abdication of every principle of journalism by Mara Gay at the Shady Lady that is the New York Times (America’s Newspaper With A Record, where the Spirit of Duranty Lives!). Who am I to make such a statement and judgement? Well, if you follow that link above, I’m a member of Kappa Tau Alpha — and I’d be surprised if she was…

Right now, the worst thing you can do for yourself or any loved ones is trust any reporting by the mainstream media. They are not interested in your health, the Republic’s health, or anything other than partisan politics and inciting panic.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s look at a bit more news. First, in addition to the ACE2 inhibitors, HIV treatments, and others that have shown utility or promise, there’s a new study out about Hydroxychloroquine that looks interesting. Thanks to Pranay Pathole/@PPathole on twitter for the info and link. The new vaccine began human trials yesterday with injection into a volunteer.

The last link goes to Forbes, and it is worth noting that Steve Forbes is one of the latest to notice the abysmal bureaucratic performance of the CDC (and the FDA, et. al.). Not sure his commission is a good idea, but it also not necessarily a bad one. Here’s a link to yet another article looking at the botched response.

Keep in mind that bureaucracies are never flexible, adaptable, or responsive. The involvement of industry in the response is sheer genius (though it has been fought by said bureaucracies) as they are used to being flexible and innovative since they have to deliver results quickly in order to stay in business. Anyone who wants government/government-run healthcare is a fool. Don’t believe me? Again (and again), just look at the countries that have socialized medicine and how they’ve responded to COVID-19 versus those with free-market/more free-market system. That should be eye-opening…

There is more to be shared, but for now I still have to go to work. Right now, many are adapting (some rather poorly to judge by twitter) to the current situation. How long my job stays open is debatable, though I am of mixed emotions on that. The job has no benefits, so if I’m not working I’m not getting paid. Then again, I’m also not potentially being exposed if I stay home for a week or two. May have to make a decision about that here soon.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 16Mar20

Yes, the number of cases in the U.S. has gone up. Yesterday it was 2,952 when I snapped the shot of the graphic. This morning, it is 3,774. BFD.

The number is going to rise, and continue to rise. That’s a given since the Chinese government lied, covered-up, and did all it could — up to refusing to allow CDC and WHO experts to help — to screw up anyone having a truly effective response.

As noted yesterday, what matters now is the rate of rise. We have to flatten the curve to stay ahead of this. Here are some cautionary words as to why. (HT Instapundit) On the heels of that, the CDC has issued new guidelines recommending no gatherings of any type of more than 50 people. Since words alone don’t seem to have the needed impact, let’s try a graphic (also stolen from Instapundit).

As for one of the other reasons for slowing the rate we discussed yesterday, here’s some good news: Moderna Therapeutics has shipped a prototype vaccine for clinical trials. While the article says in April, there are other reports this morning that the trial could start as early as this week in Seattle.

Right now there is a lot of chest thumping and posturing on social media by those who claim that this is all an overreaction, un-American (and they do have some valid points from a civil-liberties/libertarian point of view), unneeded, etc. You know what? I hope that four weeks from now you can still crow that it was all overblown and unneeded, as that is the historical way of your kind. I hope that you did not get it, and worse yet share it with parents, grandparents, friends, and others who might not have the survivability you do. I hope you can posture and strut to your heart’s content, as I will simply be happy that we did get ahead of it even if there is no way to prove that it was the steps taken (hard to prove a negative).

Meantime, for those that can and do think rather than strut and posture, here is some additional food for thought.

First, this pandemic has shown that the CDC and FDA need significant reform and modernization, and to be trimmed back to focus on their core missions. In addition, we need to remove yet more regulations that are blocking healthcare innovation and expansion. Excessive regulation is quite literally killing us.

Second, a couple of weeks ago I said that Europe had already fallen given the commitment to open borders (thank you Merkel). Belatedly, they are doing what they should have done then, well after the horses are gone and out of sight.

Third, given the efforts by the Chinese government to blame us for COVID-19 to deflect from their own abysmal failures and liabilities; and, because of their semi-official threats to cut off our medical supplies, I have a modest proposal for the President. The Trump Doctrine calls for the use of economics for leverage and as a form of warfare. So, as part of the efforts I would encourage you to put forth legislation and executive orders to repeal and remove regulatory roadblocks to bringing as much production, development and exploitation of resources, logistics, and related factors to the U.S. Further, I would urge that tax and other incentives be given to those companies who move production that can’t readily be done in the U.S. out of China and to specially designated countries or zones that have proven their friendship with the U.S. in SE Asia and elsewhere in the world including portions of Eastern Europe. Those companies that refuse to move production and other activities out of China should have to face the loss of tax incentives and other direct costs for not so doing. China was brittle before, and is even more so now. Threaten us? Time to tap hard to see how brittle they are, and even perhaps to smash.

Fourth, while not directly related to COVID-19, I suspect strongly that the EU is done. How soon it comes apart is debatable, but it could happen before the end of this year. Germany has shown that its leadership and commitment to living up to the requirements of the EU, such as helping Italy, just aren’t up to it. Resentment is high in every EU country, particularly within the public. Italy rightly believes that Germany and the EU have abandoned them, and there are already some surprisingly high-level open talk about if staying in the EU is a good idea. On the heels of Brexit, such talk is not to be taken lightly.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 15Mar20 It’s The Rate Of Spread Stupid

The Game Of Loads And Vectors is a game of numbers. Sadly, far to many in the media and online are playing a very dangerous game with the numbers. One group uses each new case, each famous person (or even people related to or vaguely related to a famous person) to stoke fear and panic and/or for personal gain. The other group of idiots is using numbers to claim this isn’t a real threat.

As I’ve noted before, it is not the total number of cases or the number of deaths that truly matters right now. The outcome for people with COVID-19 is going to be vastly different from the outcomes in China, Iran, or elsewhere. Here, the most at-risk population is going to be 70+ with underlying health conditions, and/or those who smoke cigarettes heavily now or previously. A good bit of that has to do with the ACE2 binding previously discussed. For most in the U.S., it will likely be much like having a regular flu.

The real threat we face is in controlling the rate of spread. Why did China, Iran, and Italy have the outcomes they have/are having? It spread rapidly, and overwhelmed the health systems. They simply did not have the beds, the ICU beds, or the supplies to handle the huge number of cases that hit.

Right now, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,107 staffed hospital beds in all types of hospitals including psychiatric and other specialty hospitals. There are 792,417 staffed beds in community hospitals. Where there are 97,776 staffed ICU beds in the U.S., only 46,825 of them are medical/surgical intensive care.

While many will have very mild symptoms, there is a percentage of patients that require time in the ICU. This paper looks at data from China (and acknowledges that the official data is problematic) to try to estimate how many that will be, and comes to a max of 2.6 – 4.9 per 10,000 adults. This report looks at Italy and reports a rate of 11 percent needing ICU. This report lays out why COVID-19 is worse than the flu, and looks at the impact on the healthcare system — and on the rate of spread and how it could spread exponentially as in Italy and elsewhere.

So, using the 11 percent figure, there being curretly 2,952 cases in the U.S., that means approximately 325 patients will need long-term (days to weeks) of ICU care. With 46,825 staffed beds, we’re good, right? Yes, we are — today. Will that hold true tomorrow or even next week? The magic ball says maybe. Let’s look at the following two graphs.

This is from the Johns Hopkins interactive graphic that I’ve linked to in almost every post. Note the significant rise associated with the spread of COVID-19 in almost every location. Where spread has not been controlled, there is effectively exponential growth. Now, let’s look at the U.S.

This comes from the CDC, and while not interactive it does have a lot more data than I can show. I would urge you to scroll through the number of cases and watch how it jumps.

Again (and again), there was never any chance to prevent it from getting here, as the Chinese government has lied from the start and used it’s considerable power to prevent other nations from responding by stopping travel. There is no doubt that if President Trump had not — despite howls of outrage from China and the leaders of the Democratic party — put in place a travel ban things would be much worse.

All we can do now is slow the rate of spread. We have to do this to:

• Prevent the spread from overwhelming ICU beds, ventilators, and other medical treatment. Keep in mind that right now Italy has ordered hospitals to stop treating the elderly.

• To buy time to overcome bureaucratic and other roadblocks to testing. Effective, efficient, and fast testing is essential to being sure those who have COVID-19 get treatment and are prevented from helping spread the disease.

• To push the spread out into warmer weather, a time when colds and the flu normally drop off.

• To buy time to develop effective vaccines and treatments and get them made here since the Chinese are now threatening to cut off drug exports to the U.S. (even as they try to blame COVID-19 on us).

What is going on now is not an overreaction to “the flu” as many idiots are claiming. It is a needed, indeed almost a desperate, attempt to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed like far too many others. The number to watch in the days ahead is NOT the number of cases (or who has gotten it), and it is not the number of deaths. It is the rate of spread. If the rate of spread drops, and the total number of cases stays low, we will be in very good shape from a healthcare perspective — and that will drive financial and other perspectives.

Right now, we are in good shape. Let’s all be smart and work together to help keep it that way.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness