While I firmly believe in Occam’s razor, and the theory that one should not ascribe complex motives when (governmental) stupidity is far more likely than a complex conspiracy, the news yesterday was fascinating. I also find it interesting that Iran and China are linked to sites and countries where odd things are happening.
First up, the original primary explosion followed by the massive blast in the port of Beirut, Lebanon. I agree that the red cloud on the second blast indicates nitrates of some type were involved, but am invoking the 48-hour rule on speculation for now. That is in part because some details don’t add up and in part that some other interesting things have been happening.
It seems that Iran suffered several mysterious fires in industrial and food and electrical warehouses. Given some of the photos of the fire, it seems very engaged for food supplies. The fires outside Tehran are quite interesting.
Also, there was an explosion and fire in a North Korean town on the border with China. At least one South Korean media outlet has reported that a gas leak caused the explosion, though again I think the 48-hour rule is good on anything involving the Hermit Kingdom.
It could be, and likely is, random chance that all these happened over a large geographic area in such a short time. The fires inside Iran? Well, the safe bet is that those fires were not chance but yet more in the series of debilitating “accidents” that have hit Iran and crippled some of its more interesting activities. Hitting at food, if that is what it was, simply continues fires and possibly other attacks on crops and food that were also seen in 2019.
Still, interesting to see and worth noting for consideration.
Not sure how to title this morning’s brief, as it will cover conspiracy theories, odd and interesting, and start new sections on sources of information and local businesses that can use some help.
First, let’s start with some facts. First, it is not racist to call it the Wuhan, China, or Chinese coronavirus/flu/etc. That is absolute bullshit being peddled by bought and paid for whores. No, strike that: that is an insult to hard working professionals who actually give value for the money unlike most media and far too many academics. Yes, echoing Heinlein a bit there. Anyone pushing that tripe needs to be told hard and fast to sod off.
One the largest problems, outside of the spread, to come from the willful and deliberate actions of the Chinese government under Xi, is the fact that we can trust no data out of China. Period. We can, and should, note it and where it checks out in comparison to data gathered in open countries and cultures, make use of it. Net result is that we truly won’t have good, solid, useful data for another six months or so. We are gathering data fast about the virus itself, as scientists are starting to literally study it atom by atom; but, that takes a while to process and we are just starting to truly learn it’s vectors, load data, and other essential information for the Game Of Loads And Vectors. We are learning, and learning fast, but it also means we are making decisions on very incomplete information.
So, what do you do in that case? Do you make decisions based on best-case or worst-case scenarios? Go for a middle approach? Truly smart people base off the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes. Does this mean we may overreact to the virus? Yes. In fact, I will go so far as to say it’s guaranteed to some extent. Does this mean the end of the Republic and all it stands for? Only if we let it, either by letting bad bills go through that enact bad laws (which go unchallenged) or by reacting with words and actions on par with Antifa.
The latter is why I’ve lost patience with the chest thumpers. I’ve backed away from some people I formerly respected, and am fast losing respect for far too many others. I’m torn between amusement and disgust at a number of them for the conspiracy theories being put forth. Are the Democrats/Deep State/Republicans/Etc taking advantage of this crisis for their own purposes? Yes. Next question. Is the media deliberately stoking a crisis for fun and profit? Yes. Next question.
Where I have a problem with those taking advantage of the situation boils down to: is what they are doing putting an agenda/politics/their own gain ahead of the Republic and the life and health of its Citizens? If so, I am making notes as that group does not care one iota for anyone but themselves, and would be just as happy if I or my loved ones die so long as it advances them and their cause. Such people are a cancer in the civic body, and need to be excised as fast as possible. In some cases, I advocate immediately (Champaign, IL mayor and council) via recall or other valid means. In others, vote them out and if you can’t vote directly, you can support any opponents they may have running against them that fit your perspectives. Make notes, make informed decisions, then vote. Oh, and I fully agree with Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit: “Concede nothing to the left. They bring nothing to the table.” I would add they bring nothing, but will steal anything and everything not nailed down to the table.
What we don’t need is panic, and there is far too much of it. Yes, the media has encouraged this even before it left China. ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ is an almost ancient mantra within the media. Mysterious disease, mass deaths, huge infection rate, lies and omissions by the Chinese government: it’s like crack for an addict when it comes to the mass media. In an era of declining viewership/readership and revenues, hell yes they jumped in and spun it up. The fact that the arrival of COVID-19/China Virus offered up partisan political advantages (tanking the economy before the election, multiple means to attack the bad orange man, advantages for the DNC primaries, etc.) was just icing on the cake. It is why you should not listen/read/watch them, and take nothing they say as anything but a lie. Lot’s of lies to choose from, may list them all another day. Well, wait, someone else has already done so.
Now, far too many are panicking in the other direction. The it’s not legal/this is stupid/it’s just the flu crowd are indeed panicking and are as bad in their own way as the media. That’s how you get things like this focusing on a novel written a decade or three ago and other coincidences; or, how you get this speculating on the Diamond Princess as if it weren’t a total fiasco. Just as our CDC royally fucked up the initial response here in the U.S. (see previous posts for links and discussion), the Japanese bureaucracy kicked off the epidemiologist there because he warned them they were doing all the wrong things. He was right. What should have been a textbook laboratory experiment and exercise in how to do it right turned into a blinding beacon of how to do it wrong. Which also means numbers from the Diamond Princess can’t be taken at face value. They are skewed because of the fuck-up. Doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them, but they can’t be used as a straight data set. That said, there is a somewhat more reasoned and interesting take on the data (as well as S. Korean data) here. Thanks to Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit for the link.
Well, I’m out of time and nowhere near getting everything in or done I wanted to do this morning. So, let me say the following:
STOP THE FUCKING PANIC! ALL OF YOU!! YES, YOU!!!
Don’t be sheep for the media or anyone else. If it is from the mainstream media, discount. If it is from someone saying this is just the flu, or not as bad as the flu, discount. Strike those two ends off and you have a far better chance of getting good and accurate data and/or analysis. Yes, you may lose an outlier, but it balances. Go for the data and do your own analysis is (always) the best option.
And, yes, I do recommend preparing for further lockdown. The legalities of such I will deal with another day, and yes I do think some politicians are making full use of the crisis and will need to be dealt with. The reality is that regardless of legality/liberty/etc. it is quite likely to happen. Food, drink, OTC’s, etc. get in stock and keep in stock. If it doesn’t happen, you’ve got them and can still use them.
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
I did not get to watch the press conference last night, but hope to do so today. What I’ve been able to skim and from various reports I’ve read, it sounds like we have a good start. Putting Pence in charge makes sense, as a President has a wide range of responsibilities that require attention, and would detract from his ability to focus over a long period of time. Having the vice president take command ensures focus and oversight. Yes, there are political overtones to it, but that happens with anything delegated.
So that we can all hear what was said (versus what is reported to be said, which is — far too often — the case), here’s what should be a fairly full-length video.
Yes, we do have our first case on non-travel-related COVID-19. To be honest, I just lost a side bet I had with myself, as I figured it would pop up in a town with a university or large college. So far, it sounds like everyone is doing what they should. Maybe the lessons of Japan and elsewhere are having an impact at all levels here. We can but hope…
As always:
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
The situation remains as it was: more than slightly FUBAR and still growing outside of China. That said, some signs of sanity seem to be breaking out in terms of proper and effective efforts at containment by a number of countries.
The question that keeps coming up is when. When will we start seeing more cases here? When will it be deemed a pandemic? When will it become an epidemic here? When?
The fact is that there is no answer to any of those at this time. There just is not enough data to begin to make realistic determinations at this time.
That said, based on what is being seen right now and based on the proper response by the CDC and others, we could/should start seeing an increase of cases here in the U.S. in about two weeks as those exposed by people previously released too early or not caught in time begin to show symptoms. Keep in mind that it is now believed that it has an incubation period of 27 days. This is effectively a month’s period of time when people can pass it on without showing any symptoms themselves.
If all the efforts of the CDC and related agencies work/have worked, it will be a slow build with hopefully limited cases. If those efforts have not worked, there could be a massive number of cases.
Again, if all works we might not see a significant increase in cases for two to three months, perhaps a bit longer. Again, there simply is not enough real data to make a good prediction.
Right now, other than preparing (see yesterday for my revised suggestions), there is not much we can do but hang on. If you are religious, pray. If you believe in Karma or just good thoughts, think away. Meantime, no matter your choice in spirituality, stay informed and be prepared.
As always:
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet, but likely will be in the next 1-5 days. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Working on a longer post, as there is a lot happening. In fact, some things just got very weird on top of unprecedented. The public reaction in China is something I would have considered impossible last week. More on that soon.
REPEATING: If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols and fairly standard basic personal hygiene.
I had originally intended to do a starter post on the economic cascade effects that have started. However, I think we are entering a very interesting period where the data will tell us how things are going to go. To determine that, watch the blooms.
The bloom of infections is starting to drop in China, at least as far as we can tell. Again, don’t trust any official figures from the Chinese government as they lie, and have lied from the start. That drop, however, appears to be confirmed by at least some non-government sources in China.
They key to this bloom is that it will grow again once the draconian measures in place are eased. They will have to be eased for economic reasons if nothing else. Once they are, the bloom will grow. How large and how fast it grows, and how fast it stops growing, will tell us a lot.
The blooms are growing, however, in countries around China. This is not, repeat not, unexpected. What we are looking at now is how large and how fast those blooms grow, and if they can be contained to limited areas. If they can, good news. If not, bad news.
There are smaller blooms starting elsewhere, such as the U.S. However, keep in mind that a good part of that bloom are Citizens who have been repatriated from infectious areas, including those known to be infected. That there will be more, many more perhaps, is a given. The efforts so far are on slowing it down, not keeping it out altogether as that is impossible at this point. I do wish they had implemented travel restrictions and quarantines sooner. If wishes were horses…
My own estimate right now is that we could see some massive blooms in SE Asia, all the way down towards Australia and New Zealand. Australia is the one to watch, as it is the closest first world enclave to China. They have enacted a “proper” response based off of very modern public health and public hygiene systems.
If those systems have indeed provided an adequate response, the first place we will truly see it is in Australia. If not, again, the first place we will see it is in Australia. The lessons learned from Australia can be applied to either improve the existing plans and protocols, or to make changes with enough time to prevent a complete disaster. We hope.
Given that there appear to be a number of “superspreaders” with this virus; that it can be transmitted while asymptomatic; that it can be transmitted by multiple vectors; and that we really don’t have good data yet on transmission values (or death), well, much is in up in the air.
Add in that in multiple countries there were people who were allowed in who spread it asymptomatic, and that no effort to find everyone they came in contact with will be 100 percent effective… Those are the new blooms to pay close attention to. Again, if things continue to work well in the U.S. and other first world countries, we should be relatively okay. The slow-down of the spread buys time to develop vaccines, effective treatments, and even more effective protocols for containment.
While I am not raising my alert level yet, I am strongly recommending not traveling to anywhere in SE Asia other than Australia or New Zealand. This does include Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. Have plans for the Olympics in Japan? Cancel and see if you can get refunds. Business absolutely requires working in/with those areas? Telecommute.
Oh, some quick thoughts on a couple of areas.
First, there is a large possibility that it may be more deadly in China because of the massive (and sometimes deadly) air pollution in major cities and/or regions; smoking habits on top of said air pollution; nutrition and basic health; and, public hygiene/sanitation. Again, time will tell.
Second, I really would love for someone to check the grey water systems on the Diamond Princess. Given the increasing number of reports that one mode of transmission is via fecal matter, I think tests on white, grey, and black systems could tell us a lot. Given the level of response over there, am not going to bet that such tests will be run.
Side note is that a number of the systems and such pushed by the so-called Green New Deal types could be almost tailor-made to encourage epidemics and/or pandemics. Again, good reason to check those recycling systems on the Diamond Princess. Sadly, these days I’m not as inclined to consider such “oops” as poor planning, but rather as intentional.
Third, there is some hope that better sanitation systems and practices can help contain the outbreak to some degree. The better the systems, and the more people follow good to excellent hygiene, the better.
Fourth, pray that it does not get a foothold in Africa, particularly south of the Sahara. If it does, it will have a second natural reservoir in which it can lie dormant, mutate, and/or otherwise come forth on a regular basis to plague the world.
If you have not implemented the steps I discussed in this post, I strongly urge you to do so now. Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet. Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Depending on how a couple of parameters go in the next few days, I am considering raising my personal DEFCON from Sit Up to Really?!? Much depends on what we see outside of China in that time. At this time, I still see the major impacts as economic.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols and fairly standard basic personal hygiene.
