Predictably, the mainstream media types are out to get Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany. Enter reliable tool Bill Grueskin, who claims she is undermining the credibility of the press. While Paul Bedard does a good take down of the gruesome column, I will simply note is that she has simply cleared the smoke and allowed all to see the loathsome state of modern media. For me, she has reinforced all the reasons for my decision to leave that trade. I will note simply that PRSA and marketing organizations have a far stronger code of conduct and actually — unlike the media — enforce it.
Tag: mass media
COVID-19 27Mar20
Where to start. Well, let’s start with the same thing as the last few days. If you are depending on the mainstream media for accurate and unbiased news, please stop. What you are getting from them is a deliberate attempt to create panic for partisan and personal gain. You are NOT getting good info. In fact, what you are getting is a threat to your physical health, your mental health, and your freedoms. The latest of far too many was an attempt to smear a hospital and create a climate of fear. There is no excuse for this. Period. Full Stop. Want to see more lies and distortions, go read this. You also need to read this.
The focus on cases and deaths is not helpful, to put it mildly. It is disingenuous at best (but makes breathtaking headlines), and it makes for bad analysis. Polymath on Twitter makes a good case that looking at composite data for the entire U.S. is not a good idea. I agree, and present the case that we need to be breaking it down further. Each state needs to be examined on its own, and within that each state should be looking at county/regional data hard.
Why? It shows trends, clusters, and other data that makes it easier to plan responses, ensure logistics of needed materials, and ensure other resources get to where they are needed most.
Which gets to the other issue we need to be discussing: How do we get America back to work. A one-size-fits-all approach is not the best approach, and will destroy both the American economy and our freedoms. What is needed is a response proportionate to each location. A rural area or even cities where the spread is minimal do not need to be on the same level of lockdown as an area with significant spread. You change things as the data warrants. This needs to apply not only at the state level, but at each county and even within counties.
Expect this to be fought tooth and nail by some. Far too many politicians are grabbing all they can to make things the way they want them to be, rather than what the Constitution says should be. Don’t believe me? Just look at the number of governors, mayors, and others who are using this as an excuse to ban gun and ammo sales, or take other actions to further radical political agendas. Lots to see out there.
In fact, if you want to see the true Evil, take a look at Nevada governor Sisolack , Michigan governor Whitmer, and (no surprise) His Majesty’s Governor Northam, the Earl of Blackface. Each of these has chosen to ban or severely restrict the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for reasons of politics, not medicine. Yes, I do consider that Evil, not evil, as they are willing to kill the citizens of their states for personal and political gain. They may or may not hate you, but they are willing to help you die. In my book, that’s murder. The law may well say negligent homicide, and if any die or are permanently harmed by the lack of treatment, they may find official immunity does not cover them from such charges and related civil actions. They need to be held to account for this before someone does die. If you live in that state, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Nor are they alone. Look at NYC, where the mayor and top leaders deliberately encouraged actions — in the face of warnings from experts at the CDC and elsewhere — encouraged behaviors that guaranteed a catastrophic outbreak in NYC. There are other, similar stories around the country where elected leaders have put their personal and political gain ahead of the lives of their fellow Citizens, people they have sworn to serve (and protect). Congress, state, local. Again, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?
Now, on to models which is a hot topic after yesterday’s news. Frankly, I’m disappointed with some I know who are both smart and educated in regards their comments about models and the use of same. Add to the list of those who say: it’s the flu, it’s going to kill us all, this was a Chinese bioattack, it’s all Trump’s fault, those that say we should never use computer models again for policy decisions. People who say any of these things are stupid, and you are probably better off without them in your life. Done right, computer models can be a very useful tool. Then again, like all statistics, they can be used to lie.
Dr. Birx has some thoughts on the subject, and on the media use of misleading (cough, lies, cough) models and statistics. They are well worth the time to watch and listen.
As noted previously, models are only as good as the data that goes in them. The GIGO law still applies today, and will always apply. That said, even flawed models can be useful if used properly.
For every model, there are usually four basic runs: best case, worst case, median, and mode. Running a model to get those four shows a range of outcomes. It helps define the limits of the problem, and with smart analysis, the model itself. With the range defined, you can drill down to get a better understanding of how different responses or other actions (such as different spread rates, death rates, etc. in this case) change outcomes. You can also identify critical areas to explore in more detail.
As noted before, if you are a leader facing a crisis be it a dam breaking or a pandemic hitting, you need good info on best case, worst case, median, and mode and you need it fast. While you hope for best case, you plan and act for worst case in order to get something closer to mean or median if you can’t be sure of getting the best case outcome. You have to depend on the experts to get you the data needed to make the right decisions.
In the case of our response (and it is worth noting that according to Johns Hopkins we were the best prepared nation in the world for a pandemic, thought that does not mean we were as prepared as we should have been, we weren’t.), one of the top experts was wrong with his models and our elites were off doing other things rather than their prime and critical job in the years leading up to this. And, yes, you will find the same thing, even more so, at the FDA and CDC. It is not just a problem with the NIH. There are many lessons to be learned and applied once this is behind us.
So, you as a leader are dependent on those of critical expertise, who may or may not have any political or other biases and who may have little to no real-world experience. You go with what you have, do the best you can, and start correcting on the fly as you get better data. This is what has happened and is happening.
Right now, the issue is not the number of cases or the number of deaths. It is how many require hospital treatment, and more importantly how many will require advanced support. It is frustrating that there is not better data on this, and when I talked about breaking it down as far as we can, this is some of the most critical data out there. If you can project the local spread rate and the local required treatment rate and compare it to the available beds and support… This article takes a look at what states/areas are either at capacity or approaching it. It’s not definitive or hard data, but it’s a good start.
So, what to do? I hope the President will continue to do one thing above all others: cut loose the ingenuity and can-do attitude that is American Exceptionalism and free market capitalism. While government bureaucracy has time and time again hampered efforts at effective and efficient response to COVID-19, American businesses have time and time again worked miracles to meet needs.
We need ventilators. There are major companies lining up to make them. Even better, you have MIT developing a $100 model; and, you have James Dyson designing a new ventilator in 10 days and committing to building 15,000 of them as fast as possible. You have another company designing a device to allow one ventilator to help four patients at a time. There are a lot more stories like this out there. Rather than listen to or watch the media, go do a search and I think it will help your outlook.
You will also find stories where companies that still have manufacturing capabilities here are doubling down. 3M plans to make more than a billion masks by the end of the year. You will find the company that makes the swabs needed for testing (and a host of other uses) working overtime to meet demand and get ahead.
So, Mr. President, keep the bureaucrats at bay, replace the lockdown with a gradated series of responses, and let’s get cracking. Use the better data we are getting to analyze each area and decide what response is best for that area. As we do this, let’s look at what worked, what didn’t, what could have been done better (AARs are a good thing, so long as I don’t have to write them) and then use that as a starting point for the long overdue (and bitterly resisted) modernization, update, and refocusing of the CDC, FDA, NIH (and others, please) on their core missions. Let’s also look at the ineffective and unneeded regulations, burdensome laws, and other impediments to our nation and our economy and eliminate, change, and deal with them as needed.
Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!
Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19
Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)
South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)
Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)
New England Journal of Medicine
Additional link to Johns Hopkins
More to come
Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support
Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)
Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now
More to come
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 19Mar20
Not sure how to title this morning’s brief, as it will cover conspiracy theories, odd and interesting, and start new sections on sources of information and local businesses that can use some help.
First, let’s start with some facts. First, it is not racist to call it the Wuhan, China, or Chinese coronavirus/flu/etc. That is absolute bullshit being peddled by bought and paid for whores. No, strike that: that is an insult to hard working professionals who actually give value for the money unlike most media and far too many academics. Yes, echoing Heinlein a bit there. Anyone pushing that tripe needs to be told hard and fast to sod off.
One of the reasons we are where we are is China. China lied, obfuscated, and much more. As a result, they guaranteed the spread to other countries, and it must be noted that if not for the travel ban by President Trump (to the tune of screams, tantrums, shouts of racism, and trips to the fainting couch by the unserious) we would be in far worse shape.
One the largest problems, outside of the spread, to come from the willful and deliberate actions of the Chinese government under Xi, is the fact that we can trust no data out of China. Period. We can, and should, note it and where it checks out in comparison to data gathered in open countries and cultures, make use of it. Net result is that we truly won’t have good, solid, useful data for another six months or so. We are gathering data fast about the virus itself, as scientists are starting to literally study it atom by atom; but, that takes a while to process and we are just starting to truly learn it’s vectors, load data, and other essential information for the Game Of Loads And Vectors. We are learning, and learning fast, but it also means we are making decisions on very incomplete information.
So, what do you do in that case? Do you make decisions based on best-case or worst-case scenarios? Go for a middle approach? Truly smart people base off the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes. Does this mean we may overreact to the virus? Yes. In fact, I will go so far as to say it’s guaranteed to some extent. Does this mean the end of the Republic and all it stands for? Only if we let it, either by letting bad bills go through that enact bad laws (which go unchallenged) or by reacting with words and actions on par with Antifa.
The latter is why I’ve lost patience with the chest thumpers. I’ve backed away from some people I formerly respected, and am fast losing respect for far too many others. I’m torn between amusement and disgust at a number of them for the conspiracy theories being put forth. Are the Democrats/Deep State/Republicans/Etc taking advantage of this crisis for their own purposes? Yes. Next question. Is the media deliberately stoking a crisis for fun and profit? Yes. Next question.
Where I have a problem with those taking advantage of the situation boils down to: is what they are doing putting an agenda/politics/their own gain ahead of the Republic and the life and health of its Citizens? If so, I am making notes as that group does not care one iota for anyone but themselves, and would be just as happy if I or my loved ones die so long as it advances them and their cause. Such people are a cancer in the civic body, and need to be excised as fast as possible. In some cases, I advocate immediately (Champaign, IL mayor and council) via recall or other valid means. In others, vote them out and if you can’t vote directly, you can support any opponents they may have running against them that fit your perspectives. Make notes, make informed decisions, then vote. Oh, and I fully agree with Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit: “Concede nothing to the left. They bring nothing to the table.” I would add they bring nothing, but will steal anything and everything not nailed down to the table.
What we don’t need is panic, and there is far too much of it. Yes, the media has encouraged this even before it left China. ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ is an almost ancient mantra within the media. Mysterious disease, mass deaths, huge infection rate, lies and omissions by the Chinese government: it’s like crack for an addict when it comes to the mass media. In an era of declining viewership/readership and revenues, hell yes they jumped in and spun it up. The fact that the arrival of COVID-19/China Virus offered up partisan political advantages (tanking the economy before the election, multiple means to attack the bad orange man, advantages for the DNC primaries, etc.) was just icing on the cake. It is why you should not listen/read/watch them, and take nothing they say as anything but a lie. Lot’s of lies to choose from, may list them all another day. Well, wait, someone else has already done so.
Now, far too many are panicking in the other direction. The it’s not legal/this is stupid/it’s just the flu crowd are indeed panicking and are as bad in their own way as the media. That’s how you get things like this focusing on a novel written a decade or three ago and other coincidences; or, how you get this speculating on the Diamond Princess as if it weren’t a total fiasco. Just as our CDC royally fucked up the initial response here in the U.S. (see previous posts for links and discussion), the Japanese bureaucracy kicked off the epidemiologist there because he warned them they were doing all the wrong things. He was right. What should have been a textbook laboratory experiment and exercise in how to do it right turned into a blinding beacon of how to do it wrong. Which also means numbers from the Diamond Princess can’t be taken at face value. They are skewed because of the fuck-up. Doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them, but they can’t be used as a straight data set. That said, there is a somewhat more reasoned and interesting take on the data (as well as S. Korean data) here. Thanks to Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit for the link.
Well, I’m out of time and nowhere near getting everything in or done I wanted to do this morning. So, let me say the following:
STOP THE FUCKING PANIC! ALL OF YOU!! YES, YOU!!!
Don’t be sheep for the media or anyone else. If it is from the mainstream media, discount. If it is from someone saying this is just the flu, or not as bad as the flu, discount. Strike those two ends off and you have a far better chance of getting good and accurate data and/or analysis. Yes, you may lose an outlier, but it balances. Go for the data and do your own analysis is (always) the best option.
And, yes, I do recommend preparing for further lockdown. The legalities of such I will deal with another day, and yes I do think some politicians are making full use of the crisis and will need to be dealt with. The reality is that regardless of legality/liberty/etc. it is quite likely to happen. Food, drink, OTC’s, etc. get in stock and keep in stock. If it doesn’t happen, you’ve got them and can still use them.
Hope to have more to say later, including on this interesting study from ammo.com. Hoping to get a chance to review it fully later today.
If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.
•My Amazon Wishlist
As always:
If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.
Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.
Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.
Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…
If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America
COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors
COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19
Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy
COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder
COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON
COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear
Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness
COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)
COVID-19 is a threat to the Citizens and economy of the United States. It is not a threat to any single race, creed, color, or other manipulative subject of division. It is a threat to us all, and to our lives and fortunes.
For some, it is a threat to whatever sacred honor they may have. These creatures are so bereft of honor, decency, and basic humanity that they have gleefully tried to use it for political ends. They have used it to promote party, creeds, idiologies, or things other than the Republic and the Citizens of same.
For those who may still have some small spark of integrity, I beg you now, please stop. Pull back, reclaim some measure of manhood, and do what is right for all, not just yourself and your party.
For the others, I will steal a page from the far-left: How Dare You! How dare you put your venal interests ahead of my life, the lives of my family and friends, the lives of ALL Citizens and our economic well-being.
I would remind one and all that the Citizens are watching, and they will remember. They will remember who was willing to put their lives, and the lives of those they love, at risk for purely personal gain. When this is over, those who have lost those they love, and who have suffered adverse economic impact, will rightly look at you as being in part or in large measure responsible. And, they will be most right to do so.
Frankly, given the current climate, you will be lucky if they simply hold out for elections to hold you accountable. You may well be lucky if they only go so far as to try to recall you. You will be very lucky if they do not vent their rage in ways large and small at both you and whatever political party of which you are a part.
So, if honor and integrity are not enough, you have some strong motivation towards self-interest to stop this venal idiocy now. Show some maturity, some vestige of honor, some self-interest, and drop the politics.
If you don’t feel enough is being spent, propose more and put it towards really dealing with this and not underwater basketweaving/climate change. Don’t like a process or idea? Propose something else that is effective, efficient, and again FOCUSED ON THE DAMN PROBLEM AND NOT YOUR ELECTION/RE-ELECTION/PARTY!
This isn’t about you! It’s about all of us, and our lives and fortunes. Dig deep, dig hard, and find what it takes to do what is right for all, not just for you.
Thoughts on Mass Media, Epstein, and More.
I cringe when I read about Epstein being a pedophile. I know better than to expect accuracy, much less precision, from the media. From the mainstream media, I fully expect them to call him that, as it allows them to sidestep a major SJW issue. From others, well, I’m sad to see them using the same sloppy meme.
Jeffrey Epstein was either a hebephile or a ephebophile, depending on which definition you go with. My own take is that he was an ephebophile, which is to say that he was focused on post-pubescent girls.
Why does it matter? Well, for one thing, it matters to the victims. Everyone jumping on the pedophile bandwagon is not helping those who are victims of either. Second, it obscures a number of problems going on today with sexual abuse — and various institutions.
Pedophiles are generally attracted to pre-pubescent children, and in general will go after either sex. There are, of course, a few who are gender specific, but most don’t care which gender is abused. For the victims, the abuse is a life sentence in that there are documented changes to the brain as a result of the abuse. There is also the long-disproven stigma that those abused become abusers themselves. In fact, only about ten percent of those abused will become sexual or other abusers, and there are several other things involved that have a far stronger impact on that happening than the sexual abuse. I would also point out that in addition to the documented changes in the brain, there is growing evidence that childhood abuse is related to significant inflammatory and health problems later in life.
Hebephiles and ephebophiles concentrate on those who are pubescent or post-pubescent. Statistically, they tend to be gender-specific unlike pedophiles. To some extent, such interest is normal and results in things like ‘wow, he turned into a handsome young man’ or ‘she is gorgeous/has bloomed/etc.’ thoughts or comments as we are wired to notice those who can now produce children. For most people, that is the extent of it.
However, those who are hebephiles or ephebophiles, it is not enough and there is a strong sexual attraction. While such was indeed common in the past, more so than many would like to consider, it is not accepted today. It is also a topic that the media wants to avoid like the plague as it ties into certain practices — particularly grooming.
While there is some coverage of heterosexual grooming, I suspect one reason a number of sex scandals in almost every church (hint, it’s not just the Catholic Church) and other institutions are getting scant coverage is that there are strong signs of organized and extensive homosexual grooming — and that is something the media will go far to avoid covering.
A while back, I contacted a pundit who was accusing a political candidate of being a pedophile. I pointed out that the person was not, that there was scant evidence that he was a hebephile or ephebophile, and that the pundits comments (which went beyond just accusation) were, in fact, harming victims. I was told that the pundit didn’t care, what mattered was winning, and that I and real victims could ‘fuck off.’
Of course, this is not the first time the media has ignored, distorted, or outright lied to push a meme. Want a good example? Let’s go to Vietnam, and a photo that changed the course of the war, another that continued that push.
Today, the media continues to advance the chosen narrative. The only difference is now that the mask has slipped. Anyone who cares about the truth can easily see the mask and where it has slipped. Here’s three photos that make the point.
A hat tip, writ large, to Instapundit, for links and for the photos. I also need to give a hat tip to Iowahawk for his line, which I cheerfully use on a regular basis.
Some food for thought this morning.