Month: March 2020

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 17Mar20

Who am I to write these updates and talk about COVID-19 along with geopolitics and/or defense/national security issues? Legitimate question. Much nicer than how some on twitter are castigating anyone who disagrees with them, or that thinks the steps taken are prudent.

To answer the polite question, here’s a link to my profile on LinkedIn. To pull from my about me section: “Writer, photographer, and consultant with extensive background in Defense/National Security including disaster preparedness/emergency management, and medical/biomedical R&D. ” I sort of hate to admit it, but I’ve now been writing for more than 30 years. Among the bullet points are • Service as liaison to BIO, National Association of Seed and Venture Funds, and other organizations • Extensive experience in national defense and intelligence arena. Probably well over a thousand articles along with a few books at this point. Yes, I’ve covered a good bit of medical/biomedical research, and even participated in some of it.

I also have my Basic MEMS, that is Military Emergency Management System, certification and badge. This means I’ve had all the coursework, including the WMD course, for being an On Scene Commander in an emergency. The next step would have been doing practicums and taking a few more courses so as to earn the Advanced MEMS and have served as an On Scene Commander at a few events.

So, yes, I do have some knowledge of what I’m talking about in my daily updates. I suspect I have far more than most, if not all, of the mainstream reporters in DC. Then again, they are so blinded by partisan politics right now, I doubt any real knowledge makes it through the hate. Want an example? Look at this despicable and disgraceful abdication of every principle of journalism by Mara Gay at the Shady Lady that is the New York Times (America’s Newspaper With A Record, where the Spirit of Duranty Lives!). Who am I to make such a statement and judgement? Well, if you follow that link above, I’m a member of Kappa Tau Alpha — and I’d be surprised if she was…

Right now, the worst thing you can do for yourself or any loved ones is trust any reporting by the mainstream media. They are not interested in your health, the Republic’s health, or anything other than partisan politics and inciting panic.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s look at a bit more news. First, in addition to the ACE2 inhibitors, HIV treatments, and others that have shown utility or promise, there’s a new study out about Hydroxychloroquine that looks interesting. Thanks to Pranay Pathole/@PPathole on twitter for the info and link. The new vaccine began human trials yesterday with injection into a volunteer.

The last link goes to Forbes, and it is worth noting that Steve Forbes is one of the latest to notice the abysmal bureaucratic performance of the CDC (and the FDA, et. al.). Not sure his commission is a good idea, but it also not necessarily a bad one. Here’s a link to yet another article looking at the botched response.

Keep in mind that bureaucracies are never flexible, adaptable, or responsive. The involvement of industry in the response is sheer genius (though it has been fought by said bureaucracies) as they are used to being flexible and innovative since they have to deliver results quickly in order to stay in business. Anyone who wants government/government-run healthcare is a fool. Don’t believe me? Again (and again), just look at the countries that have socialized medicine and how they’ve responded to COVID-19 versus those with free-market/more free-market system. That should be eye-opening…

There is more to be shared, but for now I still have to go to work. Right now, many are adapting (some rather poorly to judge by twitter) to the current situation. How long my job stays open is debatable, though I am of mixed emotions on that. The job has no benefits, so if I’m not working I’m not getting paid. Then again, I’m also not potentially being exposed if I stay home for a week or two. May have to make a decision about that here soon.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 16Mar20

Yes, the number of cases in the U.S. has gone up. Yesterday it was 2,952 when I snapped the shot of the graphic. This morning, it is 3,774. BFD.

The number is going to rise, and continue to rise. That’s a given since the Chinese government lied, covered-up, and did all it could — up to refusing to allow CDC and WHO experts to help — to screw up anyone having a truly effective response.

As noted yesterday, what matters now is the rate of rise. We have to flatten the curve to stay ahead of this. Here are some cautionary words as to why. (HT Instapundit) On the heels of that, the CDC has issued new guidelines recommending no gatherings of any type of more than 50 people. Since words alone don’t seem to have the needed impact, let’s try a graphic (also stolen from Instapundit).

As for one of the other reasons for slowing the rate we discussed yesterday, here’s some good news: Moderna Therapeutics has shipped a prototype vaccine for clinical trials. While the article says in April, there are other reports this morning that the trial could start as early as this week in Seattle.

Right now there is a lot of chest thumping and posturing on social media by those who claim that this is all an overreaction, un-American (and they do have some valid points from a civil-liberties/libertarian point of view), unneeded, etc. You know what? I hope that four weeks from now you can still crow that it was all overblown and unneeded, as that is the historical way of your kind. I hope that you did not get it, and worse yet share it with parents, grandparents, friends, and others who might not have the survivability you do. I hope you can posture and strut to your heart’s content, as I will simply be happy that we did get ahead of it even if there is no way to prove that it was the steps taken (hard to prove a negative).

Meantime, for those that can and do think rather than strut and posture, here is some additional food for thought.

First, this pandemic has shown that the CDC and FDA need significant reform and modernization, and to be trimmed back to focus on their core missions. In addition, we need to remove yet more regulations that are blocking healthcare innovation and expansion. Excessive regulation is quite literally killing us.

Second, a couple of weeks ago I said that Europe had already fallen given the commitment to open borders (thank you Merkel). Belatedly, they are doing what they should have done then, well after the horses are gone and out of sight.

Third, given the efforts by the Chinese government to blame us for COVID-19 to deflect from their own abysmal failures and liabilities; and, because of their semi-official threats to cut off our medical supplies, I have a modest proposal for the President. The Trump Doctrine calls for the use of economics for leverage and as a form of warfare. So, as part of the efforts I would encourage you to put forth legislation and executive orders to repeal and remove regulatory roadblocks to bringing as much production, development and exploitation of resources, logistics, and related factors to the U.S. Further, I would urge that tax and other incentives be given to those companies who move production that can’t readily be done in the U.S. out of China and to specially designated countries or zones that have proven their friendship with the U.S. in SE Asia and elsewhere in the world including portions of Eastern Europe. Those companies that refuse to move production and other activities out of China should have to face the loss of tax incentives and other direct costs for not so doing. China was brittle before, and is even more so now. Threaten us? Time to tap hard to see how brittle they are, and even perhaps to smash.

Fourth, while not directly related to COVID-19, I suspect strongly that the EU is done. How soon it comes apart is debatable, but it could happen before the end of this year. Germany has shown that its leadership and commitment to living up to the requirements of the EU, such as helping Italy, just aren’t up to it. Resentment is high in every EU country, particularly within the public. Italy rightly believes that Germany and the EU have abandoned them, and there are already some surprisingly high-level open talk about if staying in the EU is a good idea. On the heels of Brexit, such talk is not to be taken lightly.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

Cigar Sunday

Today, I smoked an old favorite, the Fuente Double Chateau Maduro. It is a medium-light/light-medium body cigar, that gives good flavor.

Since O’Banion’s is closed because of COVID-19, I smoked it in my car and while the wind made it a bit interesting, it worked. Really looking forward to better weather where I can smoke on the back deck as smoking is not allowed in the house.

The cigar I smoked today had a good sheen to the wrapper, which is a sign to look for. If you get a cigar and it is dry, the wrapper flaking, etc. it has not been stored properly and is one you should return. You will notice the sheen more on Maduro and other dark wrappers, but even light wrappers should have that bit of oily sheen that tells you it’s done right.

It got off to a fairly solid start, with a woody center (cedar) and notes of dark chocolate and leather to the sides. On the finish, there is a sweetness high in the mouth. There was some pepper in it, and as I smoked some additional notes of nutmeg and clove came out for a bit. I punched this one (intensifies the flavors) rather than cut, and was glad I did so.

It paired well with some bourbon, though the bourbon cut into the notes a bit. As it progressed, the second third seemed to solidify a bit with a solid mouthfeel. More pepper came out, and dipping the cigar into the bourbon really brought out the sweetness on the finish.

The bottom third was strong, and had a strong finish. For me, the dark chocolate came out more, perhaps with some dark coffee notes as well.

For a medium/light body cigar, it is solid. An old favorite, I’m glad it still held up well given how I like fuller-bodied these days.

Recommended.

COVID-19 15Mar20 It’s The Rate Of Spread Stupid

The Game Of Loads And Vectors is a game of numbers. Sadly, far to many in the media and online are playing a very dangerous game with the numbers. One group uses each new case, each famous person (or even people related to or vaguely related to a famous person) to stoke fear and panic and/or for personal gain. The other group of idiots is using numbers to claim this isn’t a real threat.

As I’ve noted before, it is not the total number of cases or the number of deaths that truly matters right now. The outcome for people with COVID-19 is going to be vastly different from the outcomes in China, Iran, or elsewhere. Here, the most at-risk population is going to be 70+ with underlying health conditions, and/or those who smoke cigarettes heavily now or previously. A good bit of that has to do with the ACE2 binding previously discussed. For most in the U.S., it will likely be much like having a regular flu.

The real threat we face is in controlling the rate of spread. Why did China, Iran, and Italy have the outcomes they have/are having? It spread rapidly, and overwhelmed the health systems. They simply did not have the beds, the ICU beds, or the supplies to handle the huge number of cases that hit.

Right now, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,107 staffed hospital beds in all types of hospitals including psychiatric and other specialty hospitals. There are 792,417 staffed beds in community hospitals. Where there are 97,776 staffed ICU beds in the U.S., only 46,825 of them are medical/surgical intensive care.

While many will have very mild symptoms, there is a percentage of patients that require time in the ICU. This paper looks at data from China (and acknowledges that the official data is problematic) to try to estimate how many that will be, and comes to a max of 2.6 – 4.9 per 10,000 adults. This report looks at Italy and reports a rate of 11 percent needing ICU. This report lays out why COVID-19 is worse than the flu, and looks at the impact on the healthcare system — and on the rate of spread and how it could spread exponentially as in Italy and elsewhere.

So, using the 11 percent figure, there being curretly 2,952 cases in the U.S., that means approximately 325 patients will need long-term (days to weeks) of ICU care. With 46,825 staffed beds, we’re good, right? Yes, we are — today. Will that hold true tomorrow or even next week? The magic ball says maybe. Let’s look at the following two graphs.

This is from the Johns Hopkins interactive graphic that I’ve linked to in almost every post. Note the significant rise associated with the spread of COVID-19 in almost every location. Where spread has not been controlled, there is effectively exponential growth. Now, let’s look at the U.S.

This comes from the CDC, and while not interactive it does have a lot more data than I can show. I would urge you to scroll through the number of cases and watch how it jumps.

Again (and again), there was never any chance to prevent it from getting here, as the Chinese government has lied from the start and used it’s considerable power to prevent other nations from responding by stopping travel. There is no doubt that if President Trump had not — despite howls of outrage from China and the leaders of the Democratic party — put in place a travel ban things would be much worse.

All we can do now is slow the rate of spread. We have to do this to:

• Prevent the spread from overwhelming ICU beds, ventilators, and other medical treatment. Keep in mind that right now Italy has ordered hospitals to stop treating the elderly.

• To buy time to overcome bureaucratic and other roadblocks to testing. Effective, efficient, and fast testing is essential to being sure those who have COVID-19 get treatment and are prevented from helping spread the disease.

• To push the spread out into warmer weather, a time when colds and the flu normally drop off.

• To buy time to develop effective vaccines and treatments and get them made here since the Chinese are now threatening to cut off drug exports to the U.S. (even as they try to blame COVID-19 on us).

What is going on now is not an overreaction to “the flu” as many idiots are claiming. It is a needed, indeed almost a desperate, attempt to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed like far too many others. The number to watch in the days ahead is NOT the number of cases (or who has gotten it), and it is not the number of deaths. It is the rate of spread. If the rate of spread drops, and the total number of cases stays low, we will be in very good shape from a healthcare perspective — and that will drive financial and other perspectives.

Right now, we are in good shape. Let’s all be smart and work together to help keep it that way.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

The Trump Doctrine In Action

Two of the three principles of the Trump Doctrine I discussed here are that if you harm/kill an American the you will die; and, if you use a proxy, both you and the proxy will die. Simple, straightforward, and a good and much needed thing.

While the media highlighted the attack (and some ongoing), they seem to be downplaying the fact that we did retaliate. What’s more, according to Gateway Pundit and other sources, guess what, we did it again.

It seems that our strike took out General Siamand Mashhadani, one of the top leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who just happened to be in Iraq. Pity about that. Seems some people just can’t get their head around the fact that there has been a change in leadership, and that he means what he says.

Reminds me, I need to go back and do a more detailed post about the Trump Doctrine, as it is in action on everything from the defense front to the coronavirus fight. I truly do believe it is one of the most profound doctrines to come out of the White House since the original Monroe Doctrine.

Humor With A Point

Because calling it Chinese isn’t “Raaaaacccciiiissstttt” but factual. A thumb in the eye of the Chinese and their agents here.

COVID-19 14Mar20

If you want to see innovative and effective leadership, you need look no further than to Donald Trump and the Task Force on COVID-19. Rather than seize a crisis to increase the size and scope of the stagnant and ineffective government, he instead showcased the best of American Exceptionalism to partner with industry on innovation that is already having dramatic results. I’m not surprised given some of the partnerships and investments in private enterprise solutions to find cures and speed development of vaccines, but yesterday was unprecedented. The declaration of emergency is clearing out the logjam of regulation so that real and effective steps can be taken and a host of problems solved.

Apparently others noticed this as well. The stock market didn’t just stage a rally, it had what is being reported as a record rise after the President announced his declaration and outlined the various steps being taken and had the leaders of the companies involved say a few words. Then, he had real experts on pandemics and related issues talk — as usual. He pointed out, correctly, that this is something that affects us all and requires government, industry, and even private citizens to work together to address. Contrast this with Pelosi et al and the despicable efforts to load the spending bill with pork and efforts to expand the bureaucracy. For me, I’m noting those who would play politics with the lives and safety of our Citizens and the Republic, and urge you to do so as well.

Also, contrast this with a media that has repeatedly lied, deliberately provoked panic, and now is openly promoting Chinese assets spewing propaganda. And the talking heads wonder why public trust in, and viewership/readership, has taken a nose dive.

More to say, but for now it will have to wait. I simply note that if not for the Trump economy, we would be in real and severe financial trouble. If not for the quick response of the President, responses taken despite efforts by political opposition and the deep state, the infection rate would be far larger and the spread far faster. I am more than impressed with his leadership in this crisis, and anyone who can look at the facts should be as well.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

Starting with a bit of humor today, as the vast majority of people in the U.S. have not been paying attention and for them the world turned upside down yesterday. Beloved celebrities, sports, music, movies, and more. For the majority, many of whom who reacted with anger and more, the Game Of Loads And Vectors just got real.

For me, I just wish this one had been real. Fake news, outstanding troll, and really well done. Sadly, it’s not and what follows is all too real and all too frequent

Thanks to Larry Correia and Jessie Barrett for this

There really isn’t a lot to say right now. This never has been (and never could have been because of the Chinese) about prevention. It is about slowing the rate of infection so as not to overwhelm the medical system. It is about slowing the rate of infection to allow time to ramp up resources, do research, and develop both treatments and vaccine(s). It is about protecting as many lives as possible, along with the economic health of the Republic and its Citizens.

Sadly, we are behind the curve. Not because of the Administration or Trump or Pence, etc. No, the failure rests squarely on the shoulders of the elite, the pros, the deep bureaucracy/deep state. Don’t believe me? Well, here’s this in the New York Times and here’s this in Reason. Then, go read this about a different aspect of the failure of the CDC to prepare to perform their basic and fundamental mission.

Why does it matter? Well, immediately it matters because that lack of preparation and failure to do the job not only spreads infections, but results in needless deaths. This comparison of the difference in outcomes between Italy and South Korea puts it in black and white. It also matters in a few months, when we vote not just for candidates, but between freedom or an expanded inflexible incompetent bureaucracy (a la China, Iran, and several other countries). Seriously, use the interactive graphic to compare outcomes between those with robust systems and competition to those that are state monopolies. Interesting difference, no?

As for why those now braying that it is no worse than the flu are wrong, this is just one point but it is a good one. Those saying it’s just the flu are idiots on par with those claiming it doesn’t exist and those claiming we’re all gonna die. Ultimately, there is no real difference between them.

Is it going to get worse? Yes. The infection will spread. Potentially to millions of Citizens. What matters is the rate of spread. The more it is slowed down now, the better the outcomes on every level. The spread is not a failure on anyone’s part. The rate of spread, however, may well be a massive failure on the part of the bureaucracy if it is anything but slow.

Again, there is no need to panic. In some ways, it is worse than the flu, and in others (for others) it is not. What is needed is rational thought, rational preparedness and response, and just general rationality. To get the latter (or most any of the rest) turn off the media. Then, try turning on your brain. Read, study, listen, learn.

But, hey, don’t listen to me. I’ve only been a science writer (former journalist) for more than 30 years covering medical/biomedical research during much of that time; been involved with medical/biomedical research to varying degrees for more than 10 years; and earned my basic Military Emergency Management Systems certification and badge. Obviously, by the standards of the politico/media elite, I have no clue what I’m talking about.

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 12Mar20

The last week has had me really wanting to just bang my head on the desk, the wall, or any other hard surface. Or, to hit the already way-to-slim strategic alcohol reserve. Those seem to be the two best responses to the needless panic and media-fueled hysteria over COVID-19.

Yes, it is serious though as we are getting good data (finally!) we are seeing less impact here than is being seen elsewhere. As noted in previous updates, that is because of better health, better health systems, better public and private sanitation, better air quality, and a few other factors. The key for us remains to keep it from overwhelming the health system which it can and will do unless the rate of spread is slowed. Here, unless you are older (70+) and/or have an underlying health condition(s), the odds are it will be more like a cold or flu. If you are in the demographic mentioned, then you have a far greater chance of serious illness or death. Again, so long as we can keep on top of it, and not let things get out of hand, this should remain the case.

That is why I am glad for the travel ban, and I personally would have expanded it a bit. It is why I am glad to see schools, sports, and others cancelling events or going to virtual attendance and participation. It breaks vector chains, which along with good hygiene to lower personal viral loads, should slow down or effectively stop the spread for now. I also fully expect a partisan reaction to it, given that the opposition also fully and strongly opposed the China travel ban, which has been proven to have been effective.

As for the media/political complex, please go read this and then go read this. The media has worked hard to lose the public trust for quite some time, and they can’t understand why people don’t trust them — even as they openly lie about events for partisan purposes.

For those who still claim the CDC and more government are the be-all and end-all, and just what we need to deal with things like this, go read this from the New York Times. (Hat Tip Instapundit) When you’ve lost the Times… Keep in mind that the CDC, WHO, FDA, etc. are first and foremost political agencies and not medical/health agencies. You don’t build power and budgets by sticking to your tasks after all. Don’t think WHO is mostly political (despite some good people working for it)? Then why was it only yesterday that they declared this a pandemic? (Hint, China).

Speaking of China, this bullshit about calling the Wuhan virus the Wuhan virus, the Wuhan coronavirus, etc. being racist is beyond ridiculous. Telephone call for those pushing that: West Nile, Lyme Disease, and the Spanish Flu would like a word with you… Also, counter-intel types: pay attention to who starts this, as you likely will find Chinese money and influence at work, sometimes in the highest levels of government.

Do me a favor: anyone who wants to help me build up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves so I can keep wading through the raging torrents of stupid out there, please feel free to do so.

But, hey, don’t listen to me. I’ve only been a science writer (former journalist) for more than 30 years covering medical/biomedical research during that time; been involved with medical/biomedical research to varying degrees for more than 10 years; and earned my basic Military Emergency Management Systems certification/badge. Obviously, by the standards of the politico/media elite, I have no clue what I’m talking about.

As always:

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles: