Category: Military

Conventions, Conventions

Today brings us a guest post by Romulus Wolf, looking at the confusion between the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and the confusion over which treaties to which we (United States) are signatories. It does make a difference, especially with so many, ah, enthusiastic voices this, that, and the other to be a war crime. So, enjoy the food for thought brought to you by our much appreciated guest author.

The Hague and Geneva Conventions, universally agreed upon treaties that govern much of the laws of war… Well, not so much, at least where “Universally agreed upon” is concerned.


Ratification of individual provisions is often spottier than one might expect.
And not always in the ways one might expect either. After all, it’s one thing for the landlocked nation of Chad to simply not bother to enter into 1907 Hague Convention VII. Chances are that they’re not going to be converting many merchant ships into warships. It’s another thing entirely when a major naval power not only doesn’t ratify, but actively objects to that particular convention, on the grounds that t banning such conversions would put something of a crimp in their ability to flood the seas with (legally authorized) commerce raiders1. For the moment, the US is the only serious naval power that ISN’T party. All because we took the possibility of using private warships seriously as late as 1907(2). While the US is the only major naval power of the 20th and 21st centuries to not be party, not all of our company among those not party to the treaty consists of landlocked nations such as Chad, Nepal, or Mongolia. We also share company with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of whom have at least some potential for benefit from merchant ship conversions. Not that party to this treaty ever stopped anyone, as both Britain and Germany used merchant ship conversions as Q-ships in WWI and WWII.

Ah, but surely, as I have been informed by countless internet denizens, the ban on “Dum-dum” or expanding bullets in the Geneva convention has universal, or near universal adoptions? Well, to start with, that one is part of the 1899 Hague Conventions, Declaration IV,3, and it turns out that the adoption of this one is even more spotty. The map isn’t too dissimilar here, albeit with the very notable disappearance of all of Latin America – with the exception of Mexico – from the list of parties. For the most part, concerns about expanding bullets would seem to be a Eurasian phenomenon. The Americas, Africa, and Oceania are mostly not party to this particular treaty. So, unless you’re getting involved in a land war in Eurasia, don’t expect the bullets to be non-expanding – or, more accurately, don’t expect the laws of war to be the reasoning for non-expanding bullets, as most nations use standard ball ammo, regardless of whether they’re party to the treaty or not3.

Now, the Geneva Conventions do have rather better adoption – everyone worth noting is party to Geneva Conventions I-IV, but the additional protocols do get interesting. Additional protocol I, which does a lot, supposedly relating to the protection of victims of international conflict, has very broad adoption, but the list of non-parties is certainly quite interesting. The US, Iran, and Pakistan have signed, but not ratified it (and signature without ratification has no force), and notable non members include Turkey, Israel, India, and Indonesia. It’s sometimes easy to speculate why a nation may or may not have entered into a treaty when the treaty only limits a single or small number of actions, but with the Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva convention, there is so much going on that figuring out anyone’s reasoning about why is probably fruitless – although it does bear noting that much of Additional Protocols I and II is duplicates of something already a part of the laws and customs of war, such as the prohibition on Perfidy (redundantly even within the protocol). The highlights of what Additional Protocol I does include bans on “works and installations containing dangerous forces”, a ban on “methods or means of warfare” that will cause “widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”, a ban on conscription of those under the age of 15, and ensuring that mercenaries are not given protection as legal combatants (note, the definition used is quite narrow – for example, citizens of belligerents, and residents of territories under the control of belligerents are not covered by the definition of mercenary, nor is anyone not taking direct part in hostilities). 

Of course, if we leave the realm of the Hague and Geneva Conventions for other treaties, things tend to be even spottier. Earlier this year, there were people getting the vapors over the fact that both Ukraine and Russia were using cluster munitions – not in the specifics of how they were used, which absolutely could have been war crimes (and probably were in at least some instances), but the fact that they were used at all – when neither nation is party to the treaty. In fact, given how spotty adoption of that particular treaty is, chances are that if a war starts up somewhere, at least one of the belligerents will not be party to the treaty.

So, why are international treaties on the subject of war lacking in universal adoption? How can nations such as the US, opt out of major chunks of both the Hague and Geneva Conventions? Well, to oversimplify how international law works, think of nations as individuals with Dissociative identity disorder (and frequently a good chunk of the rest of the DSM for flavor), who can only be bound by rules that they agree to, and each individual personality gets a vote. You can persuade, guilt trip, bribe, and use economic coercion, but in the end, some treaties simply won’t get signed without violence, or a credible threat of it 4. They can also sign with reservations, . And even when everyone involved is party to the treaty consider that in 1914 Germany, Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey were party to 1899 Hague Declaration IV,II, which banned projectiles “the sole object of which is the diffusion of asphyxiating or deleterious gases”, and we all know how THAT turned out. So, for anything beyond the basics, and especially for more technical items, take claims of it being illegal under international law with a grain of salt, especially if they can’t tell you which treaty5 it came from, and definitely have low expectations where actually following the treaty is concerned.


Sources:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Treaty.xsp?documentId=D9E6B6264D7723C3C12563CD002D6CE4&action=openDocument

https://archive.ph/qDqpc

https://archive.ph/sIKqA

https://archive.ph/FxpDg

https://www.clusterconvention.org/

Well, Shit

NOTE: Welcome Instapundit Readers and others. Apologies for the slow loading and such, but “new” host has issues too. As fast as I can come up with an additional $175, am switching to a different provider. And, yes, plan to get my money back from the “new” provider and use it to upgrade the new new provider. Thank you for your patience, and your gifts!

Just finished watching Vladimir’s rambling speech. A few things, other than rambling and what appear to be some interesting word choices/phrasing, pop out immediately.

First, it was a recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir, how everyone has been mean to Russia, done it bad, and otherwise behaved like a guy in a Crystal Gayle song towards the Rodina throughout its history. For all that the US was the focus of his bitching, Great Britain comes in for a lot of oblique criticism too. In fact, it might could be argued that more was directed at them than most may realize — it depends on how well one knows Russian history and Russian culture.

Two, it was — as expected — staking a position that any attempt to liberate/assault/etc. any of the territories they were claiming was an attack on Russia. That any attack on Russia would be responded to with overwhelming force including special weapons/nuclear weapons at need. I really want to go back and listen to him on this point, as I think the translation may have missed a bit. Again, as with another recent statement, it seemed to push special (chemical) ahead of nuclear but with some of the rambling…

Three, he pretty much accused the US of attacking the Nordstream pipelines, and in the process effectively denied that Russia had deliberately sabotaged them. Given some interesting info that is coming out from those knowledgeable, one has to wonder if Russian incompetence may have resulted in the explosions, which makes the wording used by Vladimir potentially very interesting.

Four, his attack on Western values including references to transitioning children and other hot-button topics in the West (including family values which may have included an indirect swipe at the new Italian PM) was IMO a touch of brilliance that reflects the old Vladimir rather than the current. I expect to see any attempt to go after such efforts in the West now resulting in accusations of being a Russian stooge/proxy/agent/etc. Yet more Gramscian damage to the West. Well played.

Five, I really want to go back and re-listen to his words and phrasing, but I believe Vladimir may have just repudiated every arms treaty, strategic or otherwise, in effect. That Russia would not be bound by efforts to reduce her defense by other powers who were already in violation of said treaties and using them to keep the Rodina down. Huge, and I suspect this is going to get overlooked in the short term. Oh, it was also the reason for my “Oh. Shit.” twitter post.

Six, in his rambling, Vladimir made plain that Russia was great; Russian culture was far superior to Western (or Eastern) culture; Russia would resume its proper place on the world stage; and that all true Russian people would flock to Russia’s banner. Again, Russkiy Mir.

The stage is set. Now, we wait to see what happens.

For those interested, the best way to prevent the use of nukes and escalation is to emphasize preparedness. Not on the Federal level, but to show that State and local governments have taken steps to ensure continuity of government and services. That individuals have taken steps and are prepared to deal with what comes. That works, and yes there are substantive reasons for saying this. Along with other preparations, a remarkable amount of deterence can be achieved.

Final note: cut the sound off and watch him. In fact, do it several times and each time focus on a different area: head, right arm, left arm, torso, feet. Then, watch the reactions in the audience. Some of them are quite interesting. Then, cut the sound on and listen just to him, no translators or talking heads, while watching him and the audience. Yes, I’m thinking there are some things you might should be catching. Far more than just the rambling and stumbling.

While we wait, prepare. Now’s the time, make the most of it.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Fallout

There is fallout, and then there is FALLOUT. Thing is, you can have fallout without nukes going off. You not only have dirty bombs, but you can have incidents at places with nuclear materials — including nuclear power plants.

In light of Vladimir’s speech last night/this morning, and a very clear threat to ALL nuclear reactors in the Ukraine, it is time to talk of cabbages who want to be kings, and fallout and other things. Make no mistake, while Vladimir was careful to discuss it as if the Ukrainians or others shelled the reactor/reactors and to say it was a threat against Russia, it was a threat to the Ukraine and the West. If Vladimir can’t have what he wants, no one will have it. Message received loud and clear Vladimir.

So, be it a bomb, a dirty bomb, an accident at a facility with nuclear materials, or an “accident” at a facility with nuclear materials, fallout can be a nasty thing. Honestly, in some respects, you are better off with a nuclear bomb exploding. Yes, it can and will produce fallout; however, a fair bit of that fallout is going to be short-lived. When you have a dirty bomb, it depends on what material the terrorists (and if they are using a dirty bomb, they are, IMO a terrorist even if in uniform or service to a government) can get their hands on but odds are it’s going to be around a while.

Then you have nuclear power reactors, most of which are first generation tech at heart (really may need to do a post on nuclear power reactors and what can be done with second- and third-generation tech and the much improved safety they offer). To be honest, to have an accident even with first-gen tech takes some effort. If you look at Chernobyl and other incidents, most of them took some effort. In fact, people had to fuck up not only by the numbers, but work hard at it. Fukushima took an earthquake, tsunami, and some bad decisions/actions along the way, and even then wasn’t all that bad. Could have been a LOT worse if not for things done right from the start. If you can find it, Subsunk and I did a series of posts on Fukushima at Blackfive that I sadly can’t find a link to right now. Short version: nuclear power is one of the safest and most efficient options out there, and it’s greener than green. Suck it up, deal with it, and let’s get new advanced design plants built.

Deliberately targeting a nuclear power plant with artillery, bombs, etc. counts in my book as working at it. While I’m sure a direct hit on a reactor that spreads stuff around would be touted as a victory, the odds are that what they would like to do is take out the cooling system so that you have a meltdown situation, which would send lots of interesting stuff into the air and be hard to moderate and/or contain.

And, therein, lies the fun joys of fallout. If it all stayed in place, you could contain and deal with it. Yes, there are ways to deal with it including chemical reactions that can take at least some nasty elements and greatly reduce the half life (see Prussian Blue and caesium-137). But, by terrorism or other, the problem with fallout is that it becomes airborne. Depending on circumstances, it can rise high into the atmosphere and literally travel around the world and over time it falls out, down, and mostly adds a miniscule amount to the local background count.

We’ve already talked a bit about dealing with fallout from a nuclear blast, but some of it needs to be repeated.

The best way to deal with fallout is to avoid it. If you can, leave and make sure you are headed away from the prevailing winds. Part of your basic preparedness should include a knowledge of both the prevailing local winds year round (comes in handy for tree management as well as people doing stupid things) and potential sources of fallout, chemicals, smoke, etc. As you are leaving, even if things seem clear, cover, cover, cover. Wear a mask, wear layers, and make the outer waterproof if possible as it makes decon easier.

Departure not an option for whatever reason? Be prepared. If you have a fireplace and chimney, you need to be prepared to drop something over the top of the chimney that will come down a bit so as to prevent fallout (or chemicals, smoke, etc.) from coming inside. Need to be prepared to do that with any open vents or other delights. Heard tell of a person who had some very large tarps, lots of tape, and a plan to cover his house with the tarps like a huge tent to help send any fallout away from the house and foundations. If you have enough time, it’s an idea.

Rolls of plastic come in handy at a time like this, as you can cover the ceiling, walls, or even floor to help prevent anything that does get in from getting to you. Pick an interior room or rooms, cover, tape, leave a means of getting filtered air in so you don’t suffocate, and you are good. If you hang sheets on top of the plastic, it adds a filter layer that may help. Also, remember the discussion about books and bookcases, other uses for pallets, and everything you can to isolate.

The trick is, you want to do all you can to keep fallout (or other) not only away from you, but out of you. While certain forms will go in and pass through the body, other’s wont. Particles can get into your lungs and stay. Some can chemically bind with you. In which case, you have ionizing radiation from which you can’t get away. It’s why potassium iodide pills are not a bad thing to keep around (sadly, I’m allergic to iodine) as it can prevent radioactive iodine from building up in the body. While there are treatments for many of the things that can get into your body, the most effective treatment is to avoid needing treatment to start with.

This is one of the few times I would recommend having a good gas mask. If you don’t have one, get a respirator at the hardware store. Can’t go that route? A standard N-95 mask will work, but you are going to be better off going for an R-95 (or 99) mask and/or a -95/99 mask with activated carbon in it. In an emergency, two layers of good t-shirt is better than nothing. Throw in a broad floppy hat (with clear plastic hanging down all around past your chin), rain gear with a hood under the hat and over layers of clothing, and you are set to do the bugout boogie. The key is to keep particles from getting into your nose, eyes, or mouth.

Then, stay high if at all possible. Fallout falls, and once it hits the ground it is likely to flow with any water and make it’s way into low-lying areas. This is where geiger counters and dosimeters come in handy. Again, I don’t recommend a lot of specialty equipment be bought as a part of preparedness, but I do recommend a gas mask or industrial respirator, R/N-95/99 masks, and a geiger counter — especially with the world situation as it is today. Stuff happens, and most of this gear can do for a variety of situations besides nuclear.

If you live in the Ukraine and/or are near or downwind of a Ukrainian nuclear plant, my advice is to be prepared to cover up and do the bugout boogie. Have your essential documents, cash, etc. ready to go. Forget things, most of them can be replaced.

If you are not immediately downwind, shelter and filter. Keep an eye on the local levels and hope you have honest types in emergency management who will give you good info and do right by you. Be prepared to boogie if the situation changes.

If you are in central or northern Europe and/or Scandinavia, shelter and filter as needed. With luck, the impact could be low outside of the immediate area(s). Outside of dealing with airborne particles, real key is going to be any tendency for fallout to collect and create a hotspot or two. Yes, it is going to get into the environment and to some extent into the food chain (see Chernobyl, and also keep in mind the worst predictions about all the fallout from that did not come true).

Outside those areas, yes the radiation is going to be detectable but it is not likely to present any real hazard. If Vladimir carries through on his threat — and make no mistake that is exactly what it was — may the worst of it blow into the Rodina and be the gift that keeps on giving to those who created the situation.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Quick Initial Thoughts On Vladimir’s Speech

I may do a longer take later, but for now, some quick thoughts on Vladimir’s mobilization speech.

First, the delay of the speech is weird and a story unto itself. Speaks to a number of things going on internally.

Second, keep in mind that most of the speech was for internal consumption, which tends to confuse Western media and lead to some rather interesting takes.

It was a chance to lay out what and why to the public. You had the standard threats to the sacred soil of Mother Russia, you had the justifications of the special military operation in context of Russkiy Mir and more, and how the West is being mean and threatening Russia. How dare the Ukraine and the West fight back!

There was, of course, the announcement of a military mobilization, that any threat to the soil of Russia would be met with force and in context of that the idea of the use of special weapons was raised as was the specific use of nuclear weapons given Western threats to nuke Moscow. Vladimir also stated that referendums to join Russia by the occupied territories (and boy did he make a huge grab attempt on what he considers occupied!) would be honored.

Some quick take-aways. Any real impact of the 300,000 called up is at least six months to a year off. It’s going to take that long (or longer given how the system is busted and basic supplies appear to be short) to get them into the system and up to a useful standard — provided they aren’t treated like the conscripts from the occupied areas and tossed into the fray with little/no training or supplies. Unconfirmed reports that flights out of Russia are full with sudden reservations by males of an age to be called up.

Take by some here that they will use this to pull in experienced NCOs ignores the fact that they have none by our standards. Russia follows the Soviet model, where enlisted were short-termers who may not have really wanted to be there and were treated as scum and idiots by many. Officers were in for longer, presumed to be more educated, and frankly did the tasks NCOs would do in our system. Keep in mind LTs pull maintenance with enlisted (mostly) providing muscle at need.

I strongly suspect most of the 300k will come from east of the Urals. For a number of reasons, Vladimir and company do not want to stir things up around Moscow or St. Petersburg. They also don’t want any large masses of troops, particularly those called up or conscripted, anywhere near Moscow for obvious reasons.

More interesting in the order itself are the penalties on businesses that refuse defense contracts or to produce defense materials on demand. You can refuse once, but not twice. Penalties not directly specified but implied draconian for the business and those running it.

Also, keep an eye on the discussions that have been/are being held in Moscow with Belarus. Vladimir desperately needs Belarus troops as well as Russian to attack the Ukraine from Belarus. Even the threat of such would hold back troops that otherwise could be used in any upcoming offensives in the East/South by the Ukraine.

The emphasis on the Motherland and what I term sacred soil was very interesting especially in light of the discussion on special, not just nuclear, weapons. Some of the threats of nuclear were expected and frankly a yawn as it was a predictable attempt to bully the West into accepting Russia trying to claim a huge chunk of the Ukraine (apparently including “occupied” territory it no longer occupies). However, mixed in that was a very clear thread of any attack on or over Russian territory could/would result in the use of special weapons and all possible force.

That may be pure bluff or it may not. It is clearly intended to prevent the Ukraine from cutting across Russian territory to cut off and retake parts of the East and South. As well as to stop shelling and other attacks on bases, depots, etc. within Russia. Those clearly have hurt, and it showed in the speech.

One thing I’m finding interesting is that it is still a special military operation, and Vladimir is making no effort to use strategic bombing or even fully use the Air Force, which says some very interesting things. Part is internal politics and part is clearly something else. Just what that is, is the question of the moment.

There’s more, but maybe later. The final thing I will suggest is to look at the speech on its own, without newsies yammering or translators translating. Things are off. Delivery, phraseology, and even how he holds himself. Watch at least the critical portions closely and several times, and focus on different areas each time. This should have been a canned, perfect speech. It isn’t. Not sure what that means, but it is interesting to note. I could nit-pick the staging, but those are mostly cultural issues and it was tuned to an internal, not external, audience.

Hang on, things could get very interesting here soon in a variety of ways.

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Couple Of Quick Thoughts

Uh Oh

Into The Light: Mikhail Gorbachev

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear war! Invasion! Tornados! Earthquakes! Floods! One of Vladimir’s farts being mistaken as the start of a chemical warfare attack!

Honestly, it really doesn’t matter. The number of disasters that can befall us is an infinity-minus-one situation. There are that many potential disasters out there, though since SMOD has repeatedly failed of it’s campaign promises I’m starting to rule it out (infinity-minus-two?).

What matters is that no matter the cause, there are only three things that can be harmed: people, places, and things. Within that, there are basically only three types of damage to each. The only thing that a nuclear attack does is add radiation to the mix even though it increases blast damage, risk of catastrophic fires, etc. Guess what, you are going to have the latter part in conventional operations (Dresden anyone?).

Heck, come to think of it, it doesn’t have to be an exchange of atomic weapons that creates the problems. Let’s say that instead of any sort of leader who wants to put his country ahead, Vladimir truly is the pissy little bitch his enemies claim he is. In which case he engineers the worst possible “melt down” at the largest nuclear plant in Europe just because he suffered a military defeat.

In a nuclear event, you are going to have the same decision matrices: stay/go, go/where, how/why. The complicating factor will be the ionizing radiation.

This is one of the few times where I think purchasing specialized gear is warranted. In fact, what I would regard as basics are some form of geiger counter and some dosimeters. If you have them, it’s going to make a lot of decisions easier, and possibly smarter (i.e. move away from the worst of the fallout, not accidentally into it). It’s also when full-face respirators or gas masks are going to come in handy.

The initial burst of radiation from the bomb? Best bet is to be below ground. Fact is, even in those zones of total de-struc-tion that people cry about, you are going to have survivors. Those below ground, in vaults, or just in well-built structures that provide protection. Long-term survival depends on being able to get out, and not having gotten what’s called an LD50 dose of ionizing radiation from the bomb, or pick up same from the fallout. Worse yet, you don’t want to breathe in that dust, as then it’s inside you emitting.

Push comes to shove, even a couple of layers of good t-shirt are better than nothing. Cover your mouth and nose, then work to get out. If you can get layers on, do so and cover as much of your body as you can in multiple layers. Remember, alpha and beta are stopped/reduced by those layers. Also, more importantly, that dust and other particles that land on you, you can get rid of up to 90 percent of it simply by taking off the outer layer later. Layer up, get out, and head away from whichever way the wind is blowing, as where it is blowing is going to be hot. If you can find shelter in a safe location, do so.

If you are outside of the impact zone, what you do is going to be based on a number of factors. If the structure you are in is not damaged, or not heavily damaged, unless you are directly under the path of the fallout, stay put may be the best option. Even if under, you may well be safer staying and waiting a few days. Again, stay/go is going to depend on the levels of radiation; your ability to shield against it and to filter out the fallout so that it doesn’t get in, and worse yet, into you. It’s going to depend on planning, luck, and a bit more.

If you have to go, the questions then become where, why, and how. In the 101-course, I talked a bit about options for staying, and for going. Maybe tomorrow we will get a bit deeper into that, but today I’m not feeling great and am going to call this a bit sooner than planned.

Oh, if the nuclear plant does melt down, the largest impacts will be on the Ukraine, Europe/Scandinavia, and Russia itself. The impact to the rest of the world will be measurable but despite a lot of fear-mongering to come, negligible.

Oh, and if anyone wants to buy me a geiger counter and some dosimeters, drop me a line. I don’t do Amazon for anything anymore, but might make an exception in this case.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Radiation

For those who have persevered and gotten through from Instapundit and/or elsewhere: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’ve chosen a new hosting provider and once bills are paid any gifts via the tip jar or fundraiser will go towards the move. Getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some.

Back in the day when I taught basic science at a small college part time, I would walk into class the day of the lecture on radiation holding a “device” in one hand and announcing that radiation had been detected. I would then reveal the device to be a radio, and use that as the launching point for the lesson. Today, were I to do that I would probably be met with absolute panic instead of eye rolls.

The fact is, we are surrounded by radiation pretty much every moment of every day. Light, radio waves, and other beneficial delights enrich our lives. Radiation, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. I’m going to skip the part of the lesson on the electromagnetic spectrum and get to the meat of today’s lesson.

The type of radiation you really need to be concerned about is ionizing radiation. That’s the nasty stuff that can damage the body and/or kill you. As always, this is a 201-level course and not a 500 or higher physics course.

Ionizing radiation gets its name because the subatomic particle or electromagnetic wave in question can strip electrons from a stable bond or state. By doing so, it converts items into ions (an atom or atoms that have gained or lost electrons), hence the name ionizing radiation. As with other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, some types of ionizing radiation can have beneficial uses (X-rays for example) when applied in a controlled/limited amount. It’s when the dosage and type of ionizing radiation is not controlled that things get interesting.

Most texts, especially lower-level texts, break ionizing radiation down into three types: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Gamma is in many ways a “catch all” as neutrons, X-rays, and even cosmic radiation fall into that category.

Alpha is the easiest to deal with. Basically, two neutrons and two protons bound together, though that’s really not critical info for this lesson. The fact is, a piece of paper can stop alpha radiation. Most clothing blocks it, and the skin has as one of its functions stopping alpha radiation. It is, however, strongly ionizing.

Beta radiation is basically an electron or positron moving at high speed. It is actually less ionizing that Alpha, though more than Gamma. A thin sheet of aluminum (note, not foil) will stop beta radiation, though it is not a good idea to use it. Fact is, some forms of beta radiation can have enough energy to create gamma radiation when they hit such a shield.

Gamma radiation is not just gamma, but also pretty much the rest of the electromagnetic spectrum. To protect against it (that which you can protect against — there are some subatomic particles out there that pass through the entire Earth basically undiminished and are a bear to detect and study) takes serious shielding, such as concrete, lead, or special materials that combine layers of shielding.

Keep in mind that we are naturally exposed to some ionizing radiation every day. The atmosphere protects us from a good bit, but if you spend a lot of time in airplanes you are getting a higher exposure than you would if you stayed on the ground. It is also in the ground and otherwise around us. That’s one reason it’s a good idea to have your basement, or even crawl space, checked in certain parts of the country. The key is limiting the exposure.

To wrap up for the day, let’s talk radioactive materials. Radioactive materials are ones that are unstable in terms of their atomic structure, and as such give off energy (heat, ionizing radiation, etc.) as they “decay” into more stable materials. Yeah, yeah, there’s a lot more to it than that, again, this is a 201-level course. Don’t tell me your primary school introductory science course included bond types, valences, and other delights, especially since you were lucky to get baking soda and vinegar right…

Radioactive elements have what is called a half-life: the amount of time it takes for one half of the material in question to go away (change into a different form). For example, tritium (critical for nuclear weapons) has a half life of 12.3 years, while cobalt-60 (used in radiotheraphy/radiation treatments) has a half life of 5.26 years. Others, however, have half lives that can be measured in thousands if not millions of years, or, in fractions of a second.

This is important for our purposes as a nuclear bomb exploding is going to interact with the atmosphere, structures, and the ground in such a way that it will effectively convert non-radioactive materials into radioactive materials. Some of these materials will have a blessedly short (though energetic) half-life. Some are going to be around for a long time to come. In addition to radioactive contamination of the blast site, the nuclear explosion (and fires that follow) are going to send this radioactive material up into the air where it will eventually fall back to Earth. This is known as fallout, and it will be a significant part of survival after a nuclear explosion.

Tomorrow I think we will get into survival, preparedness, and some of the realities of radiation exposure.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Effects

For those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.

Okay, in Nuclear 101 we sort of glossed over the effects and just went with a form of “bad” to describe them. We’ve alluded to some effects in 201, but now is the time to start exploring what happens when a bomb detonates. So, today we are going to get into what happens and what it means to you.

There is a good bit of information out there, though on a personal basis I tend to avoid anything from the Union of Confused Scientists (or those that travel with them). If someone is focusing on the politics and max damage, check out another site. Also, watch for the use of the “terror terms” like ‘zone of total destruction’ and those describing massive radiation effects. Remind me and I will get more into the types of ionizing radiation (the bad stuff) next week when looking at practical preparedness. For a fictional but accurate account, see Tom Clancy’s Sum of All Fears.

If you could somehow watch the process, as the bomb detonates you would see a massive burst of radiation. While X-rays are part of the detonation cycle, what results from the reaction is a wave of neutrons. This pulse is going to fry any and all electronics nearby, including the bio-electric computer that is the human nervous system. Immediately after is a burst of heat. Well, to describe it as intense heat is a bit of understatement.

Immediately thereafter is the pressure wave. Referred to as overpressure, this blast takes the damage up and can devastate a large area. How large depends on the size and type of bomb, as well as where it detonates. More on that in a bit. Now, also depending on the type and size, you can get a preliminary vacuum effect where the blast first sucks in all the air around it, then sends it back out again with the pressure wave. Look at some of the old above-ground test footage to see that in action.

Now, along with all this, you are going to get various types of radiation spreading out as well. This is going to come, in large measure, from incomplete reactions within the bomb and the surroundings it consumes. Again, next week we will get a bit more into this and the concepts of radiation versus ionizing radiation.

I admit this is rather simplistic. Then again, this is the 201-level course and not physics 990.

What it means is that what we have to consider in planning is:

An initial wave of neutron radiation, for 201 purposes we will assign this the smallest area of effect;

An intense burst of heat, potentially several hundred million degrees, in a larger area; and,

A pressure wave that will race out and damage a significantly larger area.

Now, thanks to the heat and pressure, you are also going to have an area subject to (potentially massive) fires.

An easy way to think of it is as an onion. The core area is the initial burst of radiation. Just out from it you have the area subject to the intense heat. The next area out from that is what is damaged by the overpressure. Out from that, you have an area that between that blast of intense heat and damage short-of-massive-destruction is probably going to catch fire and burn. There is a concept known as firestorm that is really a 301- or even a 401-level course that suggests large cities are going to basically go up in flames, particularly if thermonuclear weapons are used.

Now, does this mean you can sit down to a map and plot out a uniform damage area no matter the target? No. Not only does the radius of those bits of “onion” change with the size and type of device, it also changes with the location of detonation.

If you want to cause the most damage to the widest possible area, you set your nuclear bomb to go off in the air, what is called an air burst. For each size of bomb, there is an optimum height above ground for detonation to ensure maximum damage to the largest area. This is why I went, in previous discussions, with an airburst attack on Indianapolis. Doing an airburst will do the widest possible destruction, ensuring that interstates, rail, air, etc. are taken out even as leadership and corporate leadership based downtown are destroyed as well. To be honest, my worst-case estimates of such an attack have pretty much everything within 465 as toast given the potential for fires. If Indiana is lucky, 465 may serve as a firebreak on all but the south side.

Now, let’s say that Vladimir likes High Tax Holcomb about as much as most voters, and learns that he has a bunker stocked with caviar, fois gras and champagne in the basement of the circle jerk (state government complex) so that he can ride things out in style while the peasants get what they deserve. In that case, he might use a ground-burst. In that case, the nuclear device would explode at ground level. This will maximize destruction downtown, but limit the blast zone. While downtown will be heavily damaged/destroyed, the areas out from there are not as likely to suffer blast damage and/or fires afterwards though fallout is going to be much heavier.

Now, let’s say that High Tax Holcomb’s WEF buddies chipped in and got him a deep bunker to ride out riots, revolutions, or war. In that case, Vladimir might opt for a deep-penetration vehicle which would take the bomb deep underground before detonation. Unlike an underground nuclear test, such a detonation will breach the surface. Thing is, there will be little of the traditional effects above ground, though an area (size depending on the size of the bomb, depth, etc.) is going to rise up and then subside. Overpressure and thermal damage will be minimized at the surface, though fallout could be massive depending on how much of the blast does make it out. To get an idea of what the ground will do, check this out.

Now, when you read about zones of total destruction and the like, keep in mind that all explosions, including nuclear, are peculiar beasts. Various things, including atmospheric phenomena, can alter or shape blast fronts. If you look at Hiroshima, you can see a toroid-effect around the exact center of the blast where things were heavily damaged but not completely destroyed/vaporized. Even with an airburst, structures on the ground may shield areas. As I noted earlier, I’ve seen some amazing things happen with blast fronts.

Surviving in the immediate zone of damage/destruction depends in large measure on luck, on being underground (deep even), and well protected. The closer you are to the target, the deeper you need to be. You also better be prepared to dig yourself out and get out. The further away from ground zero the better the odds of your survival.

Next week, we will start taking a look at what is needed to survive in a nuclear environment. Keep in mind that quite a lot can be done to prepare within the precepts of practical preparedness, as while there are an almost infinite number of potential disasters, there are less than five types of damage. Makes planning and preparation much, much easier.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

For those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.

Really wanted a catchier title this morning, but the imagination just isn’t cooperating. In some ways, this lesson is a hodge-podge of concepts yet it really isn’t. Instead, it takes scenarios and targeting and puts them into a plan that is governed to some extent by policy including (one hopes) how and when things escalate.

Absent some serious flip-ups, the detonation of a single nuclear device, or even two, should not result in a full-scale nuclear exchange. I will note that this is dependent upon Dead Hand not being programmed/ordered to do so on the Russian side, and a couple of other minor caveats, but one or two detonations — particularly in the tactical range — should not trigger all-out nuclear war.

First up, let’s explore a couple of points of policy. Absent signs of a massive full-scale attack by any enemy, the unofficial policy of the United States has been more towards restraint and proportionality. I say unofficially as the U.S., like most nuclear powers, has been coy about discussing what it will or won’t do in response to any attack. The idea is to avoid getting locked into a set of actions that might not be the best option(s) under the circumstances. Having the maximum amount of flexibility in deciding when, where, and how to respond is a very good thing.

For all that Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was and is a thing, most people with any degree of sanity really want to avoid that. After all, you flush yours and we flush ours has a degree of finality to it for all the governments of the world, and isn’t going to be that good for the world in general. So, even if highly unofficial, flexibility is preferred by leaders with a degree of sanity everywhere. Those without sanity, or highly desperate, are the reason MAD put the world at the mercy of the least stable (mentally, politically, otherwise) leader(s) anywhere.

Which does bring up a number of issues, including how does one respond to someone using tactical nuke(s), or that is using chemical, biological or other weapons. I grew up and spent years using CBN (chemical, biological, nuclear) rather than WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) or the current CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive). The latter encompasses a much broader range of nastiness, though I think WMD does cover things from a legal standpoint. Despite what some may think, the U.S. is not party to any treaty that bans the use of Fuel-Air Explosive (FAE), thermobaric, or other weapons. Reminds me, there is someone I need to ping to see if they might be willing to do a guest post on the various Geneva and Hague conventions and what the U.S. is, and is not, signed up to.

It was long the position of the United States that anyone using any type of WMD (CBRNE, MNOPQRS, or whatever) was effectively using a nuke and would be responded to as if they HAD used a nuke. The policy had the desired effect in that it made rogue states (and others) think twice and at least openly avoid using any type of WMD. It also gave the Soviet Union some pause in regards its doctrines calling for the use of various WMD in military operations. That it may also have helped to lead to some treaties limiting biological and other bits of nastiness is a plus in my book.

However, back in the Obama administration we got the famous “red line in the sand” incident involving Syria and Russia. If you are not familiar with what happened, you do need to look it up. From where I sit, it turns out the lines weren’t red and were indeed written in the sand as there was no real response to the (alleged) use of chemical weapons by Syria and/or Russia.

Which does put the Biden administration in a bit of a bind. If Russia uses WMD in the Ukraine, does it hold to the stated policy or, once again, let it slide? If chemical or other, there is undoubtably going to be a LOT of pressure to let it slide. But, what if it is nuclear? My bet is lots of pressures from a lot of different directions, including from Vladimir with his “escalate to de-escalate” idiocy. Given that Biden reportedly told Vladimir well before the invasion of the Ukraine of his terror at the thought of a nuclear exchange, much less a nuclear war, who knows how either will react.

Which leads us (hopefully) to SIOP. The Strategic Integrated Operations Plan builds on all those scenarios discussed (or at least alluded to) yesterday. Within it are a series of responses to almost any set of circumstances that arise. This includes major and minor targets/target packages per each circumstance. In this case, Biden should already have been briefed in on SIOP when he was VP and should have taken part in some exercises that are designed to get those involved familiar with protocols, options, and other good things. This should have been updated when he because POTUS. Problem is, as Tom Clancy noted in his works, you can get administrations who blow those exercises off…

For our 201-level discussion, let’s start with the idea of Vladimir and Biden staring at each other with steely gazes and firm resolve over the Ukraine. As they jut their jaws and double down on showing firm resolve, the Duchy of Grand Fenwick uses Iran and Pakistan to attack the U.S. (or NATO) while everyone is looking with bated breath at Vladimir and Biden.

Got news for you, it doesn’t mean that everything we have launches at Vladimir. In fact, as a missile officer explained to me many years ago, the only time everything is aimed at one location is right before launch. In fact, he used the analogy of Countries A and B being in a fight (or ready for one) and Country C coming up and shooting Country A in the back. Do you shoot B because C shot you in the back? No. You turn around and shoot Country C.

In this case, it’s obvious pretty quickly what has happened. As a result, SIOP provides options that result in the President choosing target package MOUSE 7 which sends the appropriate weapons by the appropriate means to the assigned targets in those countries (and elsewhere) as needed. In this case, elsewhere could include the cruise liner charted by the Duchy to take its population out to sea so as to survive retaliation. Too bad they didn’t do more OPSEC on that…

SIOP is intended to provide a range of options for each scenario so that POTUS (or successor) can choose the right response given the situation. Within that is some flexibility in regards major and minor targets. The idea is, in part, to keep things equitable if you will. The problem with that, however, is that people are people. Leaders can miscalculate, they can misinterpret data or what is being said to them by their opposite number(s), and they can just flat out flip-up. A good example is in the movie By Dawn’s Early Light where the Russian launch at China is mistaken for another attack on the U.S., which leads to an escalation. That really should have been taken care of by notification through the hot line teletype, but it makes for decent movie…

In short, communications are the key. It’s why in the past a LOT of effort has gone into establishing and maintaining both official and unofficial lines of communications between governments and administrations. It’s why efforts were made to ensure the leaders had some understanding of each other. It’s why even when seconds count, people usually try to communicate. When they don’t is when you get things like the massive flip-up that was the weather rocket incident. Thought for the day: you can never have enough communications and redundant communications. No matter how much you have, there is always someone who does NOT get the word. Plan on it.

For all that the use of WMD, including tactical nuclear weapons, does not have to mean escalation to a larger nuclear exchange, I am concerned that such will happen. When you have one leader who not only threatens such on a regular basis, but has members of his administration talk about total nuclear war and how ready they are for it to the media and others (and even the animals at the zoo as enthusiastically as they go about it), it does not make fertile ground for restraint or for the concept of “escalate to de-escalate” to work as planned. In fact, it pretty much ensures that it won’t work. Throw in an opposite number of advanced age and concerns over mental competence, who spends a good bit of his time threatening and running down the majority of his own citizens, and it is a recipe for something nasty, not tasty and good. It creates a situation ripe for misinterpretation and misunderstanding.

To be honest, the best we can do right now is hold on, hope that the systems on both sides are weighted toward restraint, pray, and prepare. Anyone who says that Russian use of non-nuclear WMD is different from the use of nuclear, well, either doesn’t know history and historical policy, or is just a flippin idiot whistling past the graveyard. Things do NOT have to escalate, but it does depend on reasonable, competent, and frankly brave leadership on every side. May the situation never arise, but if it does, may the leadership on each side rise to the occasion.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

First, for those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.

Yesterday we got into the next level of targeting. Still a high level, even though I notice the comments are already pushing you to not just scuba, but go nitrox deep (smile). Before we go much further, I am being a bit of a bastard to you if you are new to all this. It’s for your own good, but still…

In teaching any subject, but particularly science, there are times when certain concepts almost need to be taught at the same time, but for a number of reasons they can’t be. Not easily at any rate. There are some who argue that in discussing nuclear strategy, you should start with scenarios then get into targeting. I take the tack that you need to start thinking about targeting first, as it is a good intro into the complexities involved. Since yesterday started introducing you to the complexities, let’s kick it up a notch and start talking about scenarios.

For all that I need to get into escalation tomorrow (note to self), why the flip are we going nuclear, and how are we doing it? This being a 201-level course, we’re going to sort of skip over the whole why thing for right now, and look more at the how for today.

In “entertainment” (using that term loosely) it’s usually because some bad guy thinks that they can take out their enemy (ies) without consequences (or at least with few for themselves). The madman who unleashes armageddon (deliberately not capitalized) upon a horrified world that has renounced nuclear evil. Sigh. One dimensional characters and threats. Second most popular trope is the religious nutcase unleashing holy war (funny how jihad is now never, ever mentioned in Hollyweird). Until recently (cough, Iran, cough) none of these terrorist organizations were likely to have more than a couple of weapons which put them to terrorism rather than war. Third most common trope is a madman or group that conspires to have the major nuclear powers (usually U.S. and Russia, funny how China is still getting a pass) get into a nuclear exchange so they can come out on top.

For all that they are tropes, and not even necessarily that good, I guarantee you they have been gamed out. Somewhere in the vaults of DoD (perhaps in the same warehouse as the Arc of the Covenant), there is a scenario for the U.S. to attack (or be attacked by) the Duchy of Grand Fenwick. Yes, you do want to look that up, for all that it is far left it is a grand farce that manages to hit some interesting and even important points.

And, yes, the idea of Russia deciding to attack for no other reason than that Vladimir thinks he can win (just as he did in the Ukraine, cough) is a scenario. So are various scenarios where people on both sides miscalculate in response to events. If you’ve read your Clancy, you already know that a number of such war games take place so that people can get to know each other, and figure out how to respond to things. Rumor has it that such “games” have not been done in a while, at least on a senior level. If that is true, I think it a huge mistake. One of my larger concerns for escalation involves Russian doctrine and the asinine concept of “escalate to de-escalate.” For a number of reasons, I can see bumbling incompetence on both sides taking things a lot further than they should.

Where you can really start to have fun is in getting away from the traditional doomsday scenario. That’s when you can truly start to get sneaky and explore options that don’t tend to slag the world. At least not immediately.

For example, we’ve already had a comment on yesterday’s post looking at shipping containers in ports. Valid. Gamed even I believe. But, why stop there? What if a “terrorist group” (cough, cough) smuggled in multiple devices and literally drove them into positions? Given all the various uranium sales and such, the ability to analyze the bomb and figure out who it belonged to may not be as easy as it used to be. Yes, that can be done. Which means that if someone parked multiple devices around the U.S., it would take time to figure out where the devices originated. Meantime, if those locations included Sunnyvale, Peterson, Offutt (does building 500 have a loading dock?), Capitol Hill, the White House, the Pentagon, and maybe a couple of others — congratulations you just carried out a dream-level decapitation strike.

Of the leadership that is left, they are scrambling trying to figure out what has happened, how it has happened, and initiate search and rescue efforts. In short, a bit busy and if there is confusion that the attack(s) may have been with our own devices… Gee, if Vladimir and Xi were to decide to use special weapons and/or push on multiple fronts in that time…

Reality is that we should be looking for bad actors to take advantage of the situation, and there is going to be more than a little suspicion that anyone so doing was involved. There are already options in place for such. Problem is, which option is chosen and who does the choosing? There are operations in place to ensure continuity of government and civilian control of the military, yes, including designated survivors. In his Black Tide series John Ringo is basing his NCCC off reality.

I’ve also already discussed the scenario of exploding a device over the U.S. to take out the electrical grid and more. Exploring this option and variants has occupied more than a little bit of time.

But why look at scenarios? Simple. It allows you to develop defenses and responses that don’t necessarily involve destroying the world. Oh, someone can do X? Let’s make it where they can’t do X. If someone does Y, what can we do in response? Let us count the ways and costs involved in those responses. It also allows you to figure out what works best for you in different circumstances.

For example, someone picked up on something I wrote yesterday about targeting the individual missile silos. Why hit them if they are empty? Well, there can be some very good reasons to do so. There can also be good reason to go for them, especially if you’ve created a scenario where you can get in and hit them before they have a chance to launch, such as the fueling scenario I mentioned.

Even the most outrageous scenarios provide information and food for thought. From war with England to sneaking a device into Vladimir’s special toilet system (where a deliberate squib event might not set off Deadhand and render a bunker useless), it makes people think and get creative. Thus are valid defenses and response options born.

For you, my readers, scenarios let you explore and evaluate your security as well as that of the nation. For example, instead of that dream decapitation strike discussed above, what if you wanted to cripple logistics in the U.S. for a long, long time? Think about that comment on shipping containers in the ports, and then look at two devices hidden in Memphis and Indianapolis. You’ve just taken out our ability to bring goods in from overseas, and you’ve just crippled both air, rail, and road logistics for most of the U.S. Really want to flip things up, and I would add one to two targets more to the West.

If all goes to plan, tomorrow I hope to talk escalation and why I’m cringing at the statements from one OSINT analyst. Then, I want to start getting deeper into how to determine your level of threat and what you can do to survive it. For me, I have two plans. One involves continued support via the Tip Jar in the upper right and the fundraiser so I can move. One involves general preparation, because when you come down to it the disaster doesn’t matter: it’s the type damage it does and that, unlike disasters, is a limited set.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

While I still hope to go back for some further discussion on communications and control, the time has come to talk of mice and men, of targets and targeting. While we did a brief overview in Nuclear 101, it’s time to get a bit further into the weeds.

In many respects, there are three levels of target: Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary.

Primary are those things that if you are to have any chance of pulling off a successful (for values of successful) attack, you have to take those targets out. Such targets can include weapons systems, especially land-based systems; bases from which various systems can operate or be controlled; and, your command and control systems ranging from the NMCC in the Pentagon to the Nightwatch and TACAMO planes in the air. If you can take out the command and control (and communications nodes) centers, you can prevent (or reduce) the retaliation for your attack. If you can damage or destroy the missiles and planes, again, you reduce or eliminate the ability to retaliate. In short, primary targets are those things that can seriously hurt you.

Secondary targets are the “nice to do” targets if you will. They can’t hurt you immediately, but long-term are a problem. For example, tanker aircraft and the bases they fly from may not be a primary target, but you want to take them out in order to prevent refueling of bombers, fighters, and other craft. They can be secondary command and control nodes, military or civilian. RUMINT had state capitals as Soviet secondary targets (bomber targets) unless said city had a major military base/center that would make it a primary target.

Tertiary targets are sort-of the “eh, if we can we will” targets. These tend to be administrative centers and operations that keep the bureaucracy moving as it were. It could be something like Ft. Ben was/is in Indianapolis (want your money? Be nice to Ft. Ben!), to Fort Huachua which is home to a number of commands including the Army Intelligence Center. One can spend some time arguing where any given base or center falls in the rankings. Honestly, a lot comes down to how the given enemy views that location.

Why does it matter? Simple. There are limits to the number of nuclear weapons in the world, and there is a limit to the number of delivery systems. Some of the commenters on earlier posts have already dived head-first into those waters (or potentially even started scuba diving). For today, I’m going to keep it largely hypothetical with just a few dashes of reality.

Let’s start with that dash of reality. The U.S. land-based ICBM of choice is the LGM-30G Minuteman III. The Russian missile on which we will focus is the Satan 2/RS-28 Sarmat, which is in the process of replacing the Satan-1 missiles. Originally scheduled to be completed around 2018, this is still in process which suggests a few things. For all that I’m concentrating for now on Russia and the U.S., you may want to check out what’s going on with the Chinese as they could easily take over as the top threat from Russia. As within hours to be honest.

For our purposes today, we are going to go with some assumptions which may or may not be precise, but work for the points of this exercise. First, for U.S. weapons we are going to go with 400 missiles, each capable of carrying 3 independently-targeted re-entry vehicles (range 1,100 miles though not part of today’s exercise). For Russia, we are going to go with the same number of Satan-2 missiles, but for purposes of the exercise we will limit it to 11 re-entry vehicles (possible mix of light, heavy, HGV; range 11,000 miles).

Now, to set the final stage of the exercise, let’s limit each side to just 1,500 nuclear weapons. Close to treaty, though how close to reality is something very different. Reality is that some on each side are going to be other-than-strategic, with the Russians having (again, according to RUMINT) a significantly larger stockpile of tactical/other-than-strategic. For exercise purposes, treat all 1,500 as strategic weapons of various sizes.

Now, go back to the discussions on reliability and let’s go with the (ludicrous) position of 80 percent success. My very cynical view on reliability is that one would be far better going with a 20 percent success rate, but let’s be optimistic for the exercise. Let’s assume that 80 percent of the missiles will launch; 80 percent of the nuclear weapons will work as advertised; and, that 80 percent of the aircraft will make it into the air and not be sidelined by mechanical or other issues.

Which means that the missiles on either side are reduced to 320 missiles. Which reduces the U.S. to 960 effective warheads via missiles and the Russians to 3,520 warheads. Ooops. Is anyone spotting a problem here? Well, it’s a problem and one of the issues in regards START and related treaties — no one really knows how many ICBMS Russia has. No one knows how many nuclear weapons they truly have either. One set of estimates is here and another is here. You might notice that there is a wide range on the total number of nuclear weapons Russia (and even the U.S.) are reported to have ready to go. As noted earlier, the 40,000+ warheads attributed to the Soviet Union is not reality today. Even so, there is a lot of “wiggle room” and that is what makes planning so much fun!

Again, for purposes of the exercise, let’s ignore reality and limit both sides to 960 effective warheads. Now, which ones are they? Are they on the missiles that don’t launch? How many are on missiles that do launch? Welcome to the sub-lesson Paranoia 101 in target selection! You can’t just assign one warhead to a crucial primary target. You have to figure on at least two warheads, on different missiles, to have a shot at one hitting on target. Really critical targets (such as The Hole, Pentagon/NMCC, etc.) are going to get 3-4 warheads via missiles, and then one or two via bomber.

You can get away with targeting one weapon per missile silo (odds aren’t good on catching it in the ground anyway) or even control capsules (and, yes, the Russians and others pretty much know where they are). Your major command and control nodes? You need to plan on 3-5 warheads for each target. Oh, and to make the planning even more fun, you can’t have all the warheads arrive at once. There’s a thing called nuclear fratricide which could have one nuke take out, or mitigate the effects of, the other nukes if they all hit about the same time. If you want to know more on the topic, do a search of “Dense Pack” and nuclear.

Now, for this exercise, let’s just keep it simple and go with each nuke being a large device. The fact is, as a commenter noted a while back, 4-40 KT bombs can be far more effective than a single 400 KT device. This being a 201-level exercise, we won’t get into size and placement. Presume each device is the same and we are using airburst rather than ground or ground-penetration blasts. FYI, going back to a comment, an underground test is not supposed to breach the surface (though such is reported to have happened), and even the so-called theoretical deep-penetrating warheads are going to send boom upwards and out — and frankly produce some nasty fallout in the process. It will NOT stay all underground.

Okay, now: pick your targets. If you want, you can play Russia and pick targets in the U.S., or you can pick targets in Russia. Up to you. Just you have to stay within the numbers above. In fact, if you like, since this is just an exercise, go with only missiles. Adding in bombers, sea-launch, and other delights really is a 301- or higher level course.

Ready? Go.

In some respects, there are no right or wrong answers for this highly theoretical exercise. The primary purpose is to get you to thinking about what constitutes a target so that you can understand current events. It also allows you to assess things such as if you live in a target zone, and if so what can you do to improve your odds of survival. Despite a number of movies and breathless television dramas, you can survive. Much depends on the level of target near you, distance to that target, and other factors.

For example, currently living in Indianapolis (and please help me get out of here!), I rate us as a secondary target. It’s not like it was years back when you had Ft. Ben as a bit more than just an admin center, major manufacturing, and some other things. Back then, one could make a case that Indy was targeted for at least four weapons. Today, with logistics being the dominant industry here, Ft. Ben reduced, and the critical wartime manufacturing pretty much gone, a good case could be made for a single weapon.

Then the debate turns to how large and where. The argument I put forth earlier in the series looked at a 1 MT device airburst over the state capitol. Such an attack would take out several major interstate highways, a major airport, potentially cripple midwest rail operations, air and ground cargo operations, and state government. An equally good case can be made for targeting the airport (which would take out the state capitol in the process). Frankly, I don’t like either choice as while I am outside the total destruction zone, I would still be in the conflagration zone. Much better odds with the airport, but… Rough (very rough) rule of thumb on a 1 MT airburst: 4 mile radius total/near-total destruction, 2-4 mile additional radius for fire after damage. Not perfect, but gives you something to work with on damage assessment.

Again, this is all a higher level course but it is something about which you do need to think.

Oh, one final thought to share in selecting your targets for this exercise. If you choose to play Vladimir and target the United States, there is one other major consideration when looking at the number of missiles and warheads: you don’t want to use them all. You need to keep a reserve because it’s not just the U.S. and Russia. If you are playing Russia and use all your nukes and missiles on the U.S., Xi is going to be over on the side going ‘youuuuu soooo stuuuppppiiiddddd!’ as you just gave up your ability to deter him from taking some valuable chunks out of your empire.

Again, while it is a higher level course, keep in mind that Vladimir does not have the luxury of just targeting the U.S. He’s got to target NATO and more. Again, that’s higher level, but keep in mind the deeper you get into this the more targets you need to think about for your weapons. You also have to think about which weapons you want to hold in reserve, and how.

Finally, there should be some computer games/simulations out there. Years back, I remember one called (I think, stupid lightning) “Nuke War” that was a limited (only 3 or so dimensions) study that worked you through the Triad (planes, missiles, sub-launched) where you had to choose how to spend your defense budget for same and build up a nuclear capability. It also, at random, would decide to kick off a nuclear exchange. Think there were or are some others. If you know a good one, speak up in the comments.

Ah, that’s the other point I wanted to make today: Nuclear Winter. At worst, it will be nuclear autumn. Keep in mind that the original study on Nuclear Winter used a literally two-dimensional model of the Earth to come up with it’s conclusions. If memory serves, I think 16-24 dimensions are required just to start getting the atmosphere (much less what it does) correct. Caught an earful from a rather annoyed scientist at a major government lab over that one day. Enjoyed the info, though I enjoyed playing with an early version of the holodeck even more.

So, have fun and take a look at your list then tuck it away. If we keep going with this, you will need it again as we once again kick targeting up a level.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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