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Just finished watching Vladimir’s rambling speech. A few things, other than rambling and what appear to be some interesting word choices/phrasing, pop out immediately.
First, it was a recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir, how everyone has been mean to Russia, done it bad, and otherwise behaved like a guy in a Crystal Gayle song towards the Rodina throughout its history. For all that the US was the focus of his bitching, Great Britain comes in for a lot of oblique criticism too. In fact, it might could be argued that more was directed at them than most may realize — it depends on how well one knows Russian history and Russian culture.
Two, it was — as expected — staking a position that any attempt to liberate/assault/etc. any of the territories they were claiming was an attack on Russia. That any attack on Russia would be responded to with overwhelming force including special weapons/nuclear weapons at need. I really want to go back and listen to him on this point, as I think the translation may have missed a bit. Again, as with another recent statement, it seemed to push special (chemical) ahead of nuclear but with some of the rambling…
Three, he pretty much accused the US of attacking the Nordstream pipelines, and in the process effectively denied that Russia had deliberately sabotaged them. Given some interesting info that is coming out from those knowledgeable, one has to wonder if Russian incompetence may have resulted in the explosions, which makes the wording used by Vladimir potentially very interesting.
Four, his attack on Western values including references to transitioning children and other hot-button topics in the West (including family values which may have included an indirect swipe at the new Italian PM) was IMO a touch of brilliance that reflects the old Vladimir rather than the current. I expect to see any attempt to go after such efforts in the West now resulting in accusations of being a Russian stooge/proxy/agent/etc. Yet more Gramscian damage to the West. Well played.
Five, I really want to go back and re-listen to his words and phrasing, but I believe Vladimir may have just repudiated every arms treaty, strategic or otherwise, in effect. That Russia would not be bound by efforts to reduce her defense by other powers who were already in violation of said treaties and using them to keep the Rodina down. Huge, and I suspect this is going to get overlooked in the short term. Oh, it was also the reason for my “Oh. Shit.” twitter post.
Six, in his rambling, Vladimir made plain that Russia was great; Russian culture was far superior to Western (or Eastern) culture; Russia would resume its proper place on the world stage; and that all true Russian people would flock to Russia’s banner. Again, Russkiy Mir.
The stage is set. Now, we wait to see what happens.
For those interested, the best way to prevent the use of nukes and escalation is to emphasize preparedness. Not on the Federal level, but to show that State and local governments have taken steps to ensure continuity of government and services. That individuals have taken steps and are prepared to deal with what comes. That works, and yes there are substantive reasons for saying this. Along with other preparations, a remarkable amount of deterence can be achieved.
Final note: cut the sound off and watch him. In fact, do it several times and each time focus on a different area: head, right arm, left arm, torso, feet. Then, watch the reactions in the audience. Some of them are quite interesting. Then, cut the sound on and listen just to him, no translators or talking heads, while watching him and the audience. Yes, I’m thinking there are some things you might should be catching. Far more than just the rambling and stumbling.
While we wait, prepare. Now’s the time, make the most of it.
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I don’t think Russia has a credible nuclear threat. They are not exactly decentralized in their governance. Who’d be hurt more in a nuclear exchange? Glass houses and throwing stones.
More importantly, he aligned Russia with the Global South, China, and India, and has a long denunciation of European and American neocolonialism.
Final annexation of the four oblasts requires ratification of the treaty by the Russian Duma, which will probably happen next Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if Russia can keep them.
PS. It is indisputable that the US destroyed the NS pipelines, most likely in conjunction with Poland and maybe even Ukraine. Biden and the State Dept. openly threatened to do so if Russia invaded Ukraine, and now, post attack, Blinken is gloating over the opportunities for American industry replacing German industry.
The bombing was as much an attack on Germany and the EU as it was an attack on Russian infrastructure.