Uh Oh

Yesterday, I think I missed the boat even though I saw the lights. In writing about Darya Dugina, I spent too much time covering all the possibilities for who wanted her dead, and missed a couple of signs of what was to come. Between the time I wrote that in the morning, and got up this morning, a LOT has been made clear. In fact, I should have caught one thing earlier in terms of the lauding of her.

Her murder came via the FSB and the Putin camp. Of that much I am fully convinced. Putin needs something to rally the people, to overcome the reluctance (and even possible mutinies in the armed forces) to mobilize more fully if not fully to deal with the Ukraine. A pretext for that and/or crackdowns in Russia.

Ms. Dugina had become problematic in terms of her presentations to the West, discussions in public of what she would do if she was the defense minister versus her cynical reversals in private, and even attempts to usurp her father. Neither are the close Putin allies they portrayed themselves as being, as I noted yesterday that is a thing of the West, not Russia.

While I’m not quite (yet) prepared to agree fully with Kamil Galeev’s take on the matter, he makes some good points. One not raised directly is that the Kremlin was ready to roll with the propaganda even before the smoke cleared. That means advanced planning, which means she was sacrificed. Think the maskirova of the children in Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising.

Almost immediately a senior leader in occupied territory extolled her as a true Russian. That led to a chorus of praise for a person who, in practical terms was a nobody even if a “golden child.” You can look them up (here’s a start and here’s more on her rapid memorial service and praise), but it amounts to equating her to be a personification of the Rodina, of Russia. The maiden who was murdered by a foul fallen woman of the cowardly enemy who fled immediately. The maiden who serves as the modern Russian version of the medieval dame belle sans reproach. Or, a sacrifice that rather eerily is foreshadowed by this article by her father (in Russian here), the maiden who mourns her virginity as she dies before she can give birth. In this case, to children for the Rodina, is how I expect to see it played. I have to wonder if this was what gave Putin/FSB the idea for dealing with her.

She was no maiden. She was no innocent. She was at best cynically manipulative and didn’t care who died so long as she could advance towards power and wealth. For all that she was problematic, she was nobody in the true circles of power which means her sacrifice will not create powerful enemies. As for her father, this will bring him further to heel and the fact that he could have died (and those behind the assassination would not have objected to that at all) is a point that is not lost on him. One wonders why he switched cars at the last minute: was it luck or does he have a further role to play?

Why now?

Ukraine’s independence day is this week. U.S. Citizens were already being urged to leave the Ukraine ahead of the day as it was anticipated that Russia would engage in attacks on civilians/civilian infrastructure. Given what is coming out of Moscow in regards revenge for the death of the martyr, I’m thinking the barbarity shown to civilians before is nothing in comparison to what is to come. The only question I have is if it will now be the main thrust since purely military operations are not going well (pretty badly in fact).

Which leads to the longer-term questions: will her death be used for internal crackdown, for fuller or full mobilization to deal with the threat, or both? Right now, based on what I am seeing/hearing, I suspect both. Dugina had called in public for more troops and to quit messing around. Her death gives Putin et cie the perfect excuse to do that, and to whip the public up in support (and to crush those who refuse). For who will stand against Putin honoring her “dying” wish to expand the war and achieve victory?

The only fly-in-the-ointment is that within Russia she is such a complete non-entity. For all her efforts to unite various non-Kremlin factions, she’s not well known and then mostly because of being her father’s daughter. If they can turn her into the epitome of the ultimate Russian martyr, the maiden who died for Russia, then I expect to see full mobilization and a truly impressive crackdown. If they can’t pull that off, but public sentiment remains charged, expect to see a limited mobilization. In either event, expect to see brutality against civilians in the Ukraine on a scale unimaginable to many in the West.

More thoughts soon.


Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts


Russia/Ukraine Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add


Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update



Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Couple Of Quick Thoughts


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