Just a quick update today, more regular posting soon I hope as the medical sagas seem to be slowing down. We are working to take care of everything that can be taken care of, and ensuring no new problems, so I can move in the best possible health. Also, want everything done that can be done as both I will have to get new docs and my insurance will not transfer so will have to find new insurance as well.
As for the Ukraine, it remains and looks to remain, a long brutal slog. The people I recommended last time are offering a lot of good insights into the war I highly commend. As for the long-term intentions of Russia they remain the same: Russkiy Mir. If Vladimir can’t take the Ukraine now, he’s going to go for all he can and wait for another chance. Don’t expect a change in leadership to change that goal. Even the loyal opposition there tend to be in the nationalist camp, and some names popular in the West are bigger nationalists than Vladimir.
As before, rumors continue to swirl. It’s interesting that there are suggestions that some of the more interesting ones come from Vladimir’s office — which means I trust them not at all. Others are clearly trying to push people into making moves or stands that can be exploited in the Russian version of the Great Game that is politics. Others are clearly aimed at a Western audience. Forget a grain, treat them all with a tun of salt.
For now, I expect Vladimir to continue with the long campaign. The worst part is that the Russians have learned some lessons and gotten in some good leadership that are adapting. Now, the Ukraine is having to adapt and react. It truly sucks when your enemy gets smart, for all that the Ukraine has rather gleefully potted as much of that leadership as they can. Both sides are fighting smart now, which is only going to make a long campaign even longer if all things stay equal. Unless the Ukraine significantly screws up, I see internal Russian issues being what causes any change to the long campaign.
With one exception: outside aid to the Ukraine. Vladimir hates it, blames all his military problems on it, and it could end up changing some of the internal calculus in Moscow. Also, don’t expect all the losses, corruption, and other minor issues like Sweden and Finland asking to join NATO to force a retreat. A double-down perhaps, but not a retreat.
I am unsurprised to read that the Uvalde LE, local and school, are no longer cooperating with the State probe. I also expect to find out that all of them are lawyering up, which I reluctantly must admit would be the smart thing to do. Well, the truly smart thing to do would be to quit and move, and armor up, as the local citizens are a bit irked with them, especially since there appears to be confirmation that some of kids bled out while they waited. I also note that in more than one society/civilization, when one screwed up this badly, one was expected to fall on a sword and explain the failure to one’s ancestors.
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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.