Mock Away

I don’t care. I’m actually quite happy to be wrong. In fact, I’m ecstatic to be wrong. No declaration of war, no nuclear saber rattling, and in fact a surprisingly mild speech given the rumors coming out of Russia in advance.

Again, three possibilities. First, I and everyone else who heard the chatter were wrong. Second, that the chatter was disinformatzia or testing to see what type pushback he would get/how far he could push before getting pushback. Third, that something happened to change the internal calculus.

If the first, or the first part of the second, we may hear nothing directly addressing things or mockery at having believed the chatter. If the second of the second, there will be (ultimately) some chatter within Russian and other diplomatic channels. If it’s the third, something will eventually leak.

I’m content to wait, and enjoy the silence for now. I’m sure we will hear more out of Vladimir and others soon. Until then, well, I’m thinking of smoking a good cigar (not that I smoke anymore) in celebration, and enjoying what I can of life.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add


Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time


If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

4 thoughts on “Mock Away”

  1. Yet.

    Not wrong yet

    He’s not yet desperate enough. Hopefully he gets a Romanian Christmas present before he is. Or that his attempt to go there triggers the Romanian Christmas present

  2. That is absolutely the correct and proper reaction when a predicted disaster doesn’t happen! The worse you expected it to be, the more reason you have to celebrate. Enjoy the moment!

    If Putin has recalibrated his war aims to the “liberation” of the Donbass and nothing more – at least for the moment – then the most likely reason is that it has become clear that any attempt to subdue the whole of Ukraine would exhaust Russia’s military and economic resources. From Putin’s perspective, the cost-benefit analysis must be way negative for capturing the whole of Ukraine, but might be sufficiently positive for limited territorial gains.

    It’s obvious that Putin doesn’t care about the loss of human life on either side. But he has to care about materiel losses and economic harms that might threaten the Russian state’s ability to exercise power.

    Indeed, if he has settled for limited territorial gains then he might actually feel that the war is going tolerably well. The relentless destruction of civilian infrastructure will probably force Ukraine to negotiate at some point. Many Ukrainian citizens have been deported from Russian-occupied areas and many others have been forcibly conscripted to fight for Russia. So, a significant part of the population of the Donbass is being removed, presumably so that it can be repopulated later with Russian colonists (who will also have no choice in the matter).

    From the point of view of a totally amoral dictator, there might not be any need to change the current strategy, because to someone like that a slow grinding war with horrendous casualties is perfectly acceptable.

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