Military – Page 10 – The Laughing Wolf

Asymmetrical Musings 4

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Today, we need to consider a different lesson. Invasion and/or occupation are a de facto declaration of war no matter the words used in excuse. Each war has it’s own lessons to learn, and history suggests that the truism about preparing to fight the last war is sadly true. For just two examples, think of WWI and the machine gun versus formation fighting. In WWII, we saw the battleship replaced by the aircraft carrier.

Sadly, I fear we are well on our way to learning a wrong lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war. For far too many, the focus is on drones, loitering munitions, and advanced artillery. The first two in particular have grabbed popular fascination, and what is being done with them is indeed amazing, successful, and more. There are already concepts for the next drone du jour, and a lot of armchair talk about how drones and other unmanned systems are the future.

To my mind, there are two big problems for anyone facing or under occupation in regards this. First, drones are the technology of today. Second, the enthusiasts miss the key point that makes drones possible: data.

As for the first point, drones have already been changing the face of warfare for a few years now. What has changed is that troops regular, irregular, and partisan are making full use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology. At least in some quarters, the creative use of COTS has been discussed for some time, especially as a variety of systems have matured. Video cameras and displays, drones, model rockets, advanced phone and radio devices, and more all have a place.

Drones will be a part of warfare in any form from now on. The real question is what will be the technology of the next war? Again, as we’ve discussed before, what matters most in the struggle against any invader or occupier is flexible minds. In this war, it is that flexibility that saw drones modified for recon, for pinpoint bombing (micro bombing), and even delivery of small (or even medium) items to troops cut off or otherwise needing resupply. It was that mental flexibility that saw someone use a 3-D printer to design and print a tail fin for various grenades (mostly 40s) so that they fell straight and true onto target.

Which brings us to data. Knowing where to start looking for targets takes data. Controlling drones at remote ranges takes data. Sharing your wild hair for modifying a drone to hit enemy targets takes data. Sharing the 3-D printer file for grenade tail fins (and other delights) takes data. Assessing strike and other action results takes data. Data, and the ability to share/communicate it, are essential to fighting any invasion or occupation.

In this case, quite a bit of that rests on the use of the Starlink satellite internet system. The enemy can jam many things, it’s hard to jam an entire satellite constellation. Add in the ability of cell phones to communicate directly with satellites, and you have something any general throughout history would have killed to have for their campaigns.

The modern smartphone is, at its core, a computer. If you can hook that computer directly to a satellite independent of cellular service, you have the ability to pull in data from satellites, web sites, and more. You also have the ability to control systems from a distance. Make it a discrete hot spot, and you can hook in drone or other controls to it. You can hook a laptop into it, and then brother do your abilities go up.

Now, if you can figure out how to make your uplink signal shielded or a tight-beam to help escape detection (for the enemy will be looking for you), all the better. Even better is to hide the abilities of the phone to a cursory search. The Russians have primarily been checking cell phones for obvious signs of resistance such as text messages, e-mail, photos, and such. They may get smart, and if not, others are surely learning lessons as well.

If you even begin to think you might be invaded or occupied, now is the time to start setting up the necessary communications/data systems. You need multiple access points to the internet, cellular, and satellite systems. You need to make those as secure as possible. Set up as many systems as you can for redundancy as well as security. It would also be wise to set up some maskirova of your own, both in terms of hiding things and putting up some things for the enemy to find and/or destroy so they think they have hurt you.

Also, start buying terminals and services now, and set-up funds out-of-country to pay for those services after you are occupied. Buy new cell phones with the satellite technology, and get what computer equipment you can as well. Despite Elon’s generosity to the Ukraine, the level of service needed costs. Plan for it. And look at ways to get creative and use the enemy’s systems (and funding sources) against them. Again, flexible minds.

What will be the next drone? Good question, and there are some options already out there. Without data and the ability to communicate it, none of it will be effective.

For the grins of it, some thoughts in fiction form.

Korolev stood in the control tower and watched the massive cargo plane maneuver to the end of the runway, as always fascinated with the beauty of the movement as well as wishing it could hurry up. Right now, the jamming systems around the base were down, as were the automatic defense systems against drones since it would not go well with higher if said systems took out your own plane.

The one thing up and working, however, was radar. Ground clutter meant that it could only scan from about fifty feet up, but everyone knew that drones came in and dropped things, and to do so meant usually they flew a hundred feet or higher.

Cursing as the plane stopped at it’s hold point, Korolev lit a cigarette and muttered a few words about being a nervous old woman. He would be glad when the plane was gone and the defenses could come back up. Besides, the plane not only had a few prisoners, but a lot more medical evacuations as well as items liberated locally to be sent back home. The evacuations were needed, not only for the wounded, but that accidental electrical short in the barracks shower had overwhelmed the cardiac capabilities of the medical staff. The hospital of the occupied air base was not designed for the number of casualties coming in to it.

Finally, the giant plane began its roll down the runway. About a third of the way down, it began to rotate, and finally the wheels left the ground. Even as they did so, however, disaster struck.

The drones were small and had come in on the deck, only lifting up briefly to clear the fence. No one saw them until it was too late. As the transport lifted, all of them homed in on the engines on the right wing, the wing on the same side as all the hangars, storage, and other necessities of a modern airbase.

Most were simply small drones, while a few may have had some bit of explosive or incendiary munitions on board. It almost didn’t matter as they hit each engine like a massive bird strike. Even as Korolev’s mouth began to open and his cigarette to fall unnoticed, those engines came apart.

For something moving so slow, the pinwheel to the right happened in the blink of an eye. Still in ground effect, the giant transport didn’t have a chance. It crashed into the flight line and hangars on the right side of the runway. Fully fueled, it exploded into a mushroom cloud that swelled up hundreds of feet even as thousands of liters of burning jet fuel rushed out over the ground to engulf nearby hangars and planes.

Away from the crash, crews raced into the hangars and revetments where the fighter jets waited.

“Good!” thought Korolev. “Get them out and away before they go up too.”

As flames began to engulf the hangars, explosions began, spreading the destruction even further. It was then that Korolev noted that the ends had popped off a crate in the pile of liberated items to be sent back home on the next flight. It was from the local school robotics collective and contained all the robots they had. As he watched, fifteen to twenty robots suddenly raced out of the crate, and headed towards the hangars and revetments for the fighters.

The wheeled robots were fast, agile, and had closed the distance before anyone could react. They reached their targets and exploded under the fighters near the left main landing gear in a rippling wave. Those going for the hangars targeted the lead fighter, trapping the rest inside. The planes that didn’t go up immediately from the effects of the directional mines in each robot collapsed as the landing gear gave way. Many of them caught fire as they did so.

With almost everyone looking at the twin disasters, no one saw the third wave coming in. These were planes, the current iteration of the old radio controlled planes and some of them were quite large. Like the original attack, they came in low, popped over the fence, and went straight for the base tank farm.

The largest fired what appeared to be modified model rockets at the big tanks. They weren’t trying to make them explode, just leak. Though if they had exploded no one in the resistance was going to mind. Some of the mid-size and smaller planes did modified bombing runs, lobbing 40mm grenades with tail fins at the sides of the tanks. The last few planes across dropped incendiary grenades as they raced off and dropped back down to the deck outside the fence.

The build seemed slow to those used to the movies, but within a few minutes, the tank farm was ablaze, with only the deep revetments around the tanks holding in the burning fuel. Horrified, Korolev stared at one of the emergency pipes that penetrated the berm so that spilled gas could be pumped into trucks and taken away at need. Was it his imagination, or was that remotely controlled valve starting to cycle?

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Asymmetrical Musings 3

Welcome to another meeting of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. In this post and this post, we’ve begun touching on some of the lessons learned about asymmetrical and irregular warfare coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. Today, I want to take a look at the somewhat touchy area of sabotage and/or small unit operations.

I say somewhat touchy because when it comes to sabotage, neither side particularly wants to say too much. For the occupier/oppressor, claiming or admitting sabotage has some very serious downsides. For one thing, it lets everyone know the area is not under control, and that those opposing the invasion/occupation are effectively fighting against such. For the invaded/occupied, you run the risk of giving away techniques, people, and more if you admit to it, worse yet if you brag about it. Which is why you see a lot of implication that something was sabotage (or a small unit strike) by one side and the other side saying yep sure was something with the implication they may (or may not) have been behind it.

Look at Vladimir’s bridge for an example. Sabotage? Small unit attack? About everything has been hinted at in terms of how it was done, with the Russians torn between claiming sabotage (truck full of explosives that they missed on inspection) or small unit attack (water-based drone or guided munition from nearby small unit). The Ukrainians are being very cagey about it, pretty much saying we did it even while neither confirming or denying they did it. It’s a dance of psy-ops and politics for the leadership on each side. For those in any occupied area, it’s pretty much pure psy-ops and operations.

For the occupied, it’s finding ways large and small to hurt the occupier. Big and showy is great for morale, but never forget that nibbling away at the edges can work wonders too. Food, as discussed the other day, is but one means of hitting at the occupier.

Water systems are a good one. While contaminating the water supply is an option, the harder thing to prevent is damage to the delivery systems (and boy can you get creative with just a few things from the home supply or hardware store. Hot water is needed for multiple things, from dishes and washing clothes to bathing. Industrial boilers and heaters are simple on one level, and incredibly complex on others. Pity when critical components fail or go missing, especially when it is hard to get spares. Just even switching hot for cold has a psychological effect, especially if combined with a host of other ‘nuisance’ things going on.

Electrical? Even better. It’s amazing how many complexes and facilities depend on two or three large transformers for primary power. Transformers that are in the open, depend on oil and other fluid inside to function, and have some control electronics nearby. Industrial acid thrown or sprayed on them might not be detected immediately, and while it takes time, that can be a good thing. Snipers potting them so that oil leaks or other damage is done is another. Heck, a satchel charge or three tossed into the transformer compound will do the trick too. Thing is, no matter how direct or creative you get, those types of transformers are expensive to replace and may take time to replace as there may not be a ready supply of replacements.

Another thought is that modern electronics (and even basic electrical appliances) don’t react well if the electricity coming in isn’t precisely the right voltage, amperage, etc. Be a shame if the controls got hacked and things got just a bit off.

HVAC systems are another option, and it is surprising how many are online or have online access. While you can take them out, consider also a period where things work too well then not well enough. Temperature, pressure, have fun. Take out the systems in their headquarters, military or civilian. Particularly if they have an underground bunker of some type, as it is going to get hot fast without ventilation and AC.

In addition, of course, are the normal targets for sabotage: rail, roads, power lines, airports, depots, etc. Pick and choose your battles for maximum damage with conserving your people as much as practical. It’s not just people getting caught and killed, it’s that even with cell structure things can happen where more than one cell or string gets rolled up and technical means exposed.

AvGas and Jet Fuel are easy to compromise, and that contamination may not show up until craft are operational. I had the fun joy joy one day of being part of an emergency grounding at Ft. Rucker because of contaminated fuel. The cows were rather bemused by our rapid appearance among them, and we sat and watched each other while waiting to get word on if it was safe for us to start back up and head in to the barn.

Which reminds me that it’s time to share a bit with you about Bryan Gibson. Bryan was a veteran, a talented artist, and had a story idea that he was playing with that involved sabotage that would be extremely effective and not easily detectible at first. Simply put, change the tolerances in the control chips (same chips run an awful lot of stuff) on any number of systems by a decimal point. Self-driving vehicles either are suddenly wildly avoiding non-existent hazards, or slamming into buildings and other vehicles. Think of all the things with electronic controls, and imagine what happens if the tolerance is off by one decimal point. BTW, people didn’t like Bryan being OPFOR either, especially after he successfully “blew up” a base operations center/command post during an exercise. God Bless my friend, you are missed.

Die Hard had a point. If somehow an airport’s systems were hacked and the decimal got moved on some of the electronic guidance systems, life would get interesting. “Landing” a hundred feet off the ground is just as bad as a landing approach for one hundred feet under the ground. Even ten feet will be interesting to bad. Much more likely to have survivors, but the aircraft and runways involved are a different matter.

Now, for those complaining that a lot of what I’m describing won’t drive out or destroy the enemy that is invading/occupying the location. By itself, no, it won’t. But, when you attack the important things, would you rather they be guarded by alert and healthy troops, or by troops who are miserable as in cold wet, tired, hungry, etc.? The nuisance operations allow a lot of opportunity to damage morale and combat effectiveness while minimizing exposure of your people and assets. It also increases the chances of success for the larger operations while again reducing some of the odds against your people.

Besides, it can make your occupier do your work for you. For example, the Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, had a lot of “bad luck” with ammunition depots. Just look at the Severomorsk Disaster, where said bad luck went on for several days. Igor (Ivan’s not bright younger brother) is prone to sneaking smokes in places he shouldn’t on a fairly regular basis it seems. Again, cold, tired, hungry, etc. troops tend not to make great judgements. Use it and exploit it.

Now, how much of this are we seeing in the Ukraine right now? Good question. The problem is that the ‘nuisance’ ops are not going to make the news. You find them in the Telegram channels and other communications back home. Are they going on? I suspect that to some extent they are. When it comes to the larger things that are happening, it’s hard to tell if it was Igor sneaking a smoke or a nice partisan/irregular or special forces operation. Which is as it should be in many respects. If you are the invaded/occupied, it’s better not to make the news and let as much as possible be put down to “bad luck.”

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Welcome to this morning’s session of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. Yesterday, we began a look at the lessons learned about asymmetrical/irregular warfare from the Russia-Ukraine war. There are a lot of lessons, but the real trick is to break the normal cycle of fighting the last war and find the right lessons instead.

Today, we’re going to take a look on the micro scale into psy-ops and effective resistance for regular, special, and irregular forces. Some of what we’ve seen reinforces current (and historical) practice, and some shows either innovation or the direction for more innovation.

For a number of reasons, I want to start with one of my favorite stories from the early days of the war. The lady who cooked a poison dinner. Yeah, it’s been done before and if you do it, unless you want an ugly death, it’s a good idea not to stick around. In this iteration, a nice older lady cooked up a large pot of something with a large amount of poison, and served it to a few dozen Russian troops if I remember correctly.

The story may or may not be true. I have not dug into it, because it doesn’t matter as it was very effective propaganda. If it built up Ukrainian morale that’s great, but what it did do was put a strain on the invaders. Was that meal they were given (or stealing) real, or poisoned? It created uncertainty and put an extra strain on food logistics as local food could not be trusted in many areas. More on the logistics angle in a bit.

Michael Z. Williamson wrote about this in one of his stories (book?) with a number of occupying soldiers going missing and then having their dog tags show up in the food being served their fellows. Along with the psychological impact, the occupiers could no longer trust the local suppliers and had to start bringing in all food from elsewhere if I remember correctly.

A dog tag, name tape, or other ID showing up in stew, sausage, or even a bag of salad is going to have a strong effect. Never mind that it is improbable, to say the least, that such would survive the processing and cooking intact. It still will have the impact and no amount of reassurance from higher is going to be believed. Especially if it is from missing or locally buried troops.

I’ve been keeping an eye out for some other things but such rarely grabs the attention generated by HIMARS, drones, and the like. These are only going to be found as, er, grouching, in messages home or such. To damage or destroy combat readiness and effectiveness, you don’t need to kill. You just need to be bad.

For example, if there is a mess hall, switch the incoming salt and sugar. You are talking large amounts of ingredients and food, and if you put either in place of the other you’ve just rendered that food or drink inedible.

“Accidental” contamination is another way to make things bad. Years ago, we used an industrial soap to coat the outside of pots used for cooking over open fires. This made clean-up much, much, much easier. The only problem was, it took just a few grains to have everyone who ate from the contaminated pot (or whatever the contents of that pot went into) sitting/squatting wherever they could for several hours even with anti-diarrheal medicines.

Sadly, it’s not hard to contaminate food. Meat is very easy to contaminate, and salads can be a microbial delight. Unwashed hands can be almost as good as deliberate application of nasty things. Do it upline as far as you can, and it becomes safer for the person who’s doing it and harder to defeat for the occupier. In fact, I can remember a time growing up when canned items were getting recalled for botulism in much the way salads are now with E. Coli. One slip and that could become a factor again.

Contamination, poor ingredients, poor quality control, and you have bad food. One of the quickest boosts for morale in a troop is a good hot meal. Rob them of that, and you have a very unhappy troop.

It is more than just psychological. As noted with the soap above, a possibly significant number of troops now require medical attention and/or supervision, which ties up the medical staff and/or medics. Other troops and staff are tied up in the care as well, may have to pull double shifts, and you also have to start over on the food, possibly even throwing out all ingredients. Multiple blows in a potentially easy strike.

Which has made me wonder about some of the grouching on the Russian channels. Normal problems with their fracked up logistics situation? Or someone getting creative to add to those issues?

Now, another micro application of some macro information. The real trick to making life fun for any invader or occupier is to determine where they are having logistical issues, then adding to them. I think it an immutable law of war that you are always going to be short on something, often several somethings. As the defender/resistance, it behooves you to figure out what those are and making the situation worse.

Early on, it became apparent in the Ukraine that military trucks and tires for any vehicles were a major weak point. It also became clear without a lot being said that regular, special, and irregular forces were all quite cheerfully potting tires and damaging trucks beyond ready repair. When you see the Russians building up sandbags and revetments to protect the tires of vehicles, you know you have a gold target.

That’s when, if you can, you go all out. Caltrops of various sizes are fairly easy to produce even in a home shop, and since you’re not having to build them to last for decades you might even be able to 3-D print them. Who cares if they break, especially if they break apart inside a tire or body.

Heck, if you can find them, children’s jacks can be ground into something that will work on troops and civilian grade tires. Boards with nails through them work well too. Spray paint the boards and nails as appropriate, and they can be hard to detect. Police spike strips can work too.

Thing is, if you know where a patrol will be going or the advancing forces will be traveling, make it fun for them. If you have them, put out caltrops of all sizes not only on the roads, but likely areas in fields and especially in areas where troops are going to take cover from an ambush. If not a real ambush, set up booby traps to create something from which they have to maneuver or take cover. Net result, tires blown, vehicles as easier targets, and troops taken out of the fight after stepping/landing on the caltrops. Pretty much same with simple nails through boards with a bit of camo. Oh, and don’t forget to contaminate the nails, caltrops, etc. just because you care.

This year, it was tires and trucks. What will it be next year? The trick is to find out where there are logistical issues and go at it from every level. For regular forces, it might be sending some arty to a supply depot, a civilian warehouse, or wherever a supply of that unobtainium is being stored. Special forces can go after smaller concentrations or, better yet, source materials or production if within reach. Irregular forces can make them use up whatever it is. In the process, all can sap the will of the opposing/occupying troops and security, and hopefully make as many of them as possible combat ineffective in the process.

In the case of the Ukraine, troops that can’t move can’t ride to the rescue when other troops are attacked. They also go from being a potential strike force to a target. Any time and any way you can immobilize any number of troops, it’s a good thing. Remember the deliberate flooding that forced the Russians off the roads???

This winter, I’m going to be watching to see what is done to take advantage of the weather. A cold and wet troop is a miserable troop. A cold and wet troop without the proper gear or working gear is dead in a Ukrainian or Russian winter. If not dead, they are a medical case. Either way, combat ineffective. I really would not be surprised if the partisans/irregulars find some unique and innovative ways to make the winter even worse for the Russian troops.

Remember, the key is to out think the enemy, to make them react and to keep them off balance. Getting creative on the micro scale has effects far out of proportion to the size of the action.

I had thought about adding one more thing, proposed by the late Bryan Gibson, bit maybe it will fit better tomorrow or in a post on its own.

Asymmetrical Musings 1

There are many, many lessons coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. First one is, when Russia tells you that plan to annex you back into Russia, not only do you need to believe them, you need to convince everyone else in the world they mean what they say. After 2014, the Ukraine began to prepare and there was a massive change in the mindset there. That deserves a full column on its own.

Despite its losses, Russia is determined to regain its former territories and if thwarted now, they will try again later. As long as the current Russia/Russian government exists, it will keep trying. Also, per previous, if Vladimir can’t have the Ukraine now, he may well make it were no one will have it.

Now, on to this morning’s musings. Whether tube, rocket, or other, artillery has proven itself to still be the king of battle. The tank is not dead, but is going to have to continue to adapt to a rapidly changing threat environment. Infantry is not going anywhere either, though training and flexibility are going to be key.

The real key out of all of what we are seeing, however, is ingenuity and mental flexibility. This will be particularly true for anyone who finds themselves occupied, effectively occupied, or threatened with occupation by unfriendly forces be it a rapacious neighbor (cough baltic states taiwan cough) or other. Given all, if I were in such a location, I would be looking at trying to stockpile electronics, 3-D printers, and a few other things. More on that another day, but COTS can win the day.

In any war, battle, or skirmish, the party who thinks fastest laughs last. Yep, borrowed that from John Ringo, but it is true and really is the key to asymmetrical conflict. There was a Ukrainian commercial about shovels that our leadership and intel people missed, that hammered home on the need for fast thinking, innovation, and then decisive action. All based around the common shovel and use of same.

The ability to think, adapt, and overcome is essential to any war, but when you add in the need to set aside conventional thinking and operations, it puts it on a very different level. After all, your opponent may have fighters, nukes, tanks, oh my! You may have few or none. That’s when having a mind that can step outside the box means the difference between success and slavery.

Going back to this discussion of nuclear targeting, I brought up the theory of selective elimination as a bit of humor with some serious undertones. In the example used, Vladimir might not target Washington DC and various state capitals because leaving them intact would do more damage to the U.S. than nuking them. To be honest, I can make a good case for it. That’s another post for another day.

Selective elimination is a tactic useful in asymmetric warfare and long-term warfare. In simplest terms, you target the competent leadership of your enemy and leave the incompetents in place. It can be direct elimination, or it can involve denying competent leadership the chance to showcase what they can do by refusing action to them.

It also can be done by putting that competent leadership into an untenable position dictated by the enemy’s domestic politics. Gen. Cope and Preston Pans comes to mind for that. You can find a good presentation on selective elimination given in the book The Island Worlds by Eric Kotani and John Maddox Roberts. Good series by the way, fun reads.

Now, to bring what you may have thought was a non sequitur (or my lightning fuzzed short term memory issues shining through) back onto topic, think back to the very early days of the war. Think back to the Ukrainians getting inside Russian coms and playing whack-a-general. My question is, were we watching the Ukrainians play a variant of the selective elimination process?

Note that of the ones that got a lot of coverage, the ones killed were those who were out trying to rally and lead their troops. That in and of itself speaks to professionalism if not competence. How many leaders at various levels were recalled, replaced, etc. because they could not successfully engage the Ukrainians.

No, selective elimination by itself won’t win a war or end an occupation. But it will make the territory that much harder to take, much less control. It is but one facet of the lynchpin that is laughing last.

Addendum: Don’t forget, leadership extends from the lowest levels on up. When occupied, look for the competent and effective leaders, officers and NCOs, from the squad on up. Eliminate enough of those rally points and it hamstrings even the most effective of generals.

Missile, Missile, In The Air

You’re going to fall to Earth somewhere. Late yesterday, there were posts saying two Russian cruise missiles had missed a target in the Ukraine and hit Poland instead. Other than noting I really could do without Russian quality control, I joined with a few other sane people to encourage waiting, getting facts, and noting that this was a NATO Article 4 situation, not 5. Then, being so terrified by the more outrageous tweets and reports (/sarc) I went to bed.

Even before I went to bed, I was noticing amidst the many calls for NATO to take action, that some key people were being very precise with their wording. Such as “Russian made rocket” and the like. When politicians and other senior types get that precise, there is a reason.

Sure enough, this morning there is confirmation that they were not Russian cruise missiles, or even SRBMs. Instead, they were anti-aircraft missiles launched by the Ukrainians at Russian missiles. Russian built, yes; but, not Russian fired. Those pushing for a “real” war between NATO and Russia seem to be switching gears to the concept that Russia was responsible since it was their attack that resulted in the missiles being fired.

As we’ve discussed here before, back in the very early days, there are a number of people and countries who want a no-fly zone over the Ukraine. That such would guarantee an expansion of the war and pit NATO versus Russia is the goal desired by them. Some of them are former client states, who know Russia’s goals for reunification and have no desire to ever be subject to Moscow again. Hard to blame them, but let’s consider other options before starting WWIII. Others have their own reason, and a number of politicians and oligarchia around the world (including the U.S.) see a chance to get rich and continue centralizing government power off another endless war.

After all, the people most likely to die are deplorables and low-lifes anyway, not the upper-crust elite blue check/Ivy League/WEF crowd. The so-called elites want to thin those people out anyway. Nope, breaking thousands of eggs for an omelette is fine by them as none of their types will be among the eggs used.

The problem with that is, if things go the way they easily could, they may be among the first to go. Let’s face it, those big cities so favored by the so-called elites? Targets. In part because of the elites.

As I noted here and here, we are headed into far more dangerous times rather than into calmer in regards war. Throw in all the domestic and international issues and problems, and it just gets better and better (/sarc)

Yesterday provides a great example in terms of how far too many, including our leaders, really don’t understand Russia or the Russian people. No, they are not just like us but speak a different language. They have a very different history and culture that shapes their actions and reactions.

Look at the Russian reaction to the accusations they had hit Poland. As I noted elsewhere, the standard Russian reaction to anyone calling it out on anything is a combination of overly dramatic soccer player screaming like he’s being gutted by Jack the Ripper and falling to the ground when someone moves within five feet of him, and psycho Mel Gibson from Lethal Weapon. ‘Oh, oh, I’ve been attacked and I will retaliate massively. You know I will, I’m crazy, I’ve proven it, do or say anything and it’s on!’ Tip: the more they scream and threaten over an accusation, the more guilty they are.

In many respects, the best response is to respond with reason crossed with psycho Mel Gibson. The problem is, that is a fine line to walk. Especially given three key pieces of cultural baggage.

First, you have the Russian cultural inferiority complex. If you’ve not read some of work on Russians and culture by Kamil Galeev, or some of the really good history books, it can be hard to understand. Short version, they’ve always seen themselves as the downtrodden country bumpkins in comparison to other countries, particularly Germany and England. It’s why when Catherine decided to “modernize” Russia she imported Germans, made them nobles, and used the German model of government and society for Russia. It’s a factor in German/Russian relations to this day.

Second, you have another layer of cultural inferiority that comes from Communism. Communism was constantly playing catch-up with the rest of the world in terms of products, technology, science, and pretty much anything else because Communism/Socialism sucks and destroys creativity, productivity, and all else that is good including lives.

Third, you have Rus/Slav paranoia, which is raised up into an art form all its own. Yes, they have been attacked many times. Sometimes in response to their actions, as the neighbors get a bit peeved when you invade, rape, and pillage over the centuries with gleeful abandon. Anyway, the various invasions led to the whole concept of controlling the passes to prevent any attacks (or retaliation). It also led to massive paranoia that makes me look like Captain Whatever. That paranoia and equating retaliation with attack really shines at times like this.

All of this is why Russia immediately claimed any accusation they were responsible in any way, shape, or form was a provocation (attack). They are always the victim in their own mind. A “victim” that increasingly only has limited cards to play. Again, we are headed into far more interesting times right now.

While I suspect far too many leaders and so-called elites don’t have a clue about history and culture, others do. Others who have played this incident for all they are worth to expand the war. They are the most dangerous, as they know they are playing with nuclear fire, and don’t care.

So, where are we? Article 4 is off the table for now, though NATO will discuss/is discussing the situation at its scheduled meeting. Vladimir will make hay off the accusations with the internal audience, which is the only one he truly cares about and it may indeed help him with it. Those pushing for a “real” war could sadly make some headway.

My take is: treat any and all reports as unconfirmed to start. Things can move too fast in situations like this for the 48-hour rule, but sit back, listen, and check trusted sources. Do not pour gasoline on any fires. Also, make note of who clickbaits and posts wildly. They, like sources that headline most posts as BREAKING NEWS and such, are not to be trusted.

Before I forget, my title and opening line are a play on a poem in Mad magazine many years (decades, sigh) back. It was an ode to NASA that had me rolling. Not going to post the whole thing, but I still remember and love the lines: “We shot a rocket into space, we fear it fell to Earth someplace. Though we were aiming for the moon, Red China says we hit Kowloon.” The ending was “…and all our space probe expertise, found nothing but enraged Chinese.” And, yes, it does play off the old poem about shooting an arrow into the air. Back in the day, Mad made full use of the classics and was an amazingly fun read.

Veteran’s Day 2022

To all who have served: A good and happy Veteran’s Day to you! If you know a veteran, go nod and smile, wave, thank them, or just wish them a good Veteran’s Day depending on circumstances and their desires. Today is the day to honor the living, while we can. Please do so.

And if anyone knows where Hardy is (far left in the photo), please buy him a glass of goat’s milk for me. Before him I’d never met a troop who would turn down free beer for some goat’s milk, but to each his own.

May it be a good day for each and every one of you who has served.

A Different Take On Russia

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

I’ve been talking with reader Bill on several topics about Russia, which are actually related. Been promising him an article or two, and it’s time to deliver. While I said it early on, it’s time to revisit what I think is in store for Russia in the near future. Absent some massive political, social, and other changes, Russia is frelled. There are several reasons for this.

First up, as I and others have discussed before, is birthrate. This article in the Moscow Times gives a good overview and is worth the read. It’s even in English so no translation needed. When you factor in ethnicity, the Rus/Slavs are being outbred by pretty much every other ethnic group, often by a significant margin. Still looking for some solid figures, but it appears that in a number of areas the Rus/Slav group is already a shrinking minority.

This is not new in many respects, as Russkiy Mir called for efforts to reverse this trend and to bring home ethnic Rus/Slav that were not currently part of Russia. It’s why the Russians are kidnapping so many Ukrainian children as they are essential to repopulation efforts.

The other key component in trying to halt the demographic slide is to change the abortion culture that gripped (grips?) Russia. While it is changing, abortion was (is?) the primary means of birth control. Given infant and maternal mortality rates, and a lack of basic reliable healthcare, it was the chosen method. In 2000, more than 2 million abortions were performed in Russia, and while numbers have significantly dropped, it is an ongoing cultural battle. See this article and this article for some additional background.

Keep in mind that most of the data/statistics shown are the official statistics of the Russian government, and may or may not accurately reflect reality. I’ve seen some other statistics out there that indicate your average Rus/Slav woman of childbearing years has had multiple abortions (unconfirmed rates of 10-20 in a lifetime), which also has a very negative affect on the ability to have children when marriage and other factors put you in a position to want children. If anyone has a source of accurate statistics on abortion by ethnic group, would love to see them.

To further complicate efforts to halt the population decline Russia has one of the worst, if not the worst, rate of spread and rate of death from AIDS/HIV. How bad is it? So bad the Russian government no longer reports the data (or they had quit the last time I checked). Major mode of spread seems to be drug use, which is also a factor I’m not going to get into too much today. Read this article, this article, and this article for more information. Again, I’ve seen some real interesting numbers, and where it appears there is widening drug (and alcohol) abuse with a corresponding spread of AIDS/HIV is in younger males in the prime years for marriage, family, etc.

Now, you also have to factor in brain drain. While the news has been focused on young men fleeing Russia to avoid getting sent to the Ukraine, brain drain is a long-term problem for Russia that seems to only be growing. It’s not just males either, but females as well. Kamil Galeev has written about this before and I commend his works on the subject to you. He’s someone I respect, and respect the thought processes, even if/when I disagree with him. Great insights on Russia, and he is a good example of the brain drain they face. Again, based on what data I can find, this is an ongoing and accelerating problem.

Russia is a resource rich country, make no mistake. It literally, however, can’t tap it’s own resources to any degree right now. Rus/Slav paranoia about foreign partnerships (and there are companies around the world who would love to to be a part of such efforts since even a small percentage of such is going to be huge) along with remnants of Soviet/Communist inferiority complex are a large part of the problem. The other problem is that developing the people-resources needed means they need smart, clever, and ambitious people who can think outside the box. Most of which are leaving Russia for better opportunities and circumstances. Under the oligarchia and current culture, there is very little for them in Russia.

In addition to a vast amount of resources, Russia also had its reputation as a top-tier military power and as a nuclear power. Yes, I said had and mean it.

I’m having one of those mornings today, so I can’t remember if it was the Institute for the Study of War (ISW on Twitter), Dmitri, or Kamil Galeev who stated in the last few days that internal Russian politics will cope with problems with the military while military defeats will result in domestic political change. I agree with the basic assessment.

For all that Russians take pride in a mighty military, being a member of the military itself has fallen out of favor. Military members are seen, effectively, as dumb, morally cripple, and about anything else a leftist has said here about our own military. Have heard that the Russian military members are a bit of a handful for local law enforcement, and may be far more involved in drug dealing, theft, and other delights than in what might be regarded as normal shenanigans for a basic troop.

For all that troops are increasingly regarded as scum by what appears to be a growing part of the population, Russians do take pride in having a mighty military that will protect them from the evil West, Nazis, and others. That can meet any challenge, defeat any enemy, and do so quickly. After all, they’ve been promised by Putin and others that the military is a priority, has the best equipment, is well trained, etc.

By opening the military to the oligarchia for looting, it is increasingly clear that the Russian military is a shell of its former self. Word is that we and others have been able to buy equipment and advanced systems to study because troops (and their families) were literally starving. The missing radios from the Russian doomsday plane should have been a bigger clue to all than it apparently was. I certainly had no idea of the extent to which the corruption had disrupted everything from uniforms to specialized gear. Cheap imported tires are the least of the problems the Russian military faces.

Right now, there are serious questions about how much of the warstock they have can even be used. Tanks and rifles are rusted to the point of being inoperative and non-repairable. Specialized gear? Look at how many years overdue the SATAN-II missile is right now, and one gets an idea of why it and other systems are being questioned. Soviet era supplies, especially on things like MOPP gear, are toast at this point.

On paper, they still have a huge military with lots of gear. I have one question on that, which is if the 20 percent ghost trooping we appeared to see early on isn’t a much higher percentage. When millions of uniforms don’t exist because of corruption, how many of the troops are really there? How many of their aircraft are truly fully serviceable?

Which is why things are about to get even more interesting for Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the only potential flash point on the Russian flanks (and within treaty). There are any number of areas that are potentially restive towards rule by Moscow, and if you think China hasn’t considered absorbing some of those resource-rich areas next to their border you are delusional. And if you think the Middle Kingdom is happy with Vladimir buying or trying to buy stocks of ammo from North Korea, I’ve got a bridge for you. North Korea has long been an area of contention between the two powers. Also, Winnie the Poo is not likely to be happy in regards Iran for that matter. China has long been expanding its influence there, using carefully metered nuclear help among other things. Now, Tehran is openly asking for advanced nuclear weapon development help as part of the deal for drones (which have far too many Western, including US, parts in them).

On top of that, you now have Japan pushing (hard by diplomatic standards) in regards the Kuril Islands. Japan has never accepted their loss, and for years has pushed on a purely diplomatic level simply because that was the only option open to them. Between the size and perceived quality of the Russian military, and it being a nuclear power, they were not stupid and so made no military move. Now, even as people start to openly debate if Russia qualifies as either a second or third tier military, who knows? I don’t expect to see Japan do something militarily aggressive but what else might they do?

Russia, as we know it, is on course to implode. Between population shrinkage, and the rapid shrinking of the ethnic Rus/Slav people, and brain drain, the current system has no chance of long-term survival. Add in everything else, and the odds go up rather dramatically on the system coming apart in the next ten to twenty years. Now, factor in military defeat in Ukraine and the impact that is going to have on populations and politics, and it means the next few years might be more interesting than any of us would like. Especially given that Russia is an unstable nuclear power to an extent that makes the old Soviet Union breaking apart seem stable by comparison.

As I pointed out yesterday, the invasion and all that is going on in Russia is based on domestic Russian politics. What I’ve outlined above are some of the factors driving those domestic politics. Dealing with the international and other issues depends on leaders outside of Russia not only understanding the domestic Russian political situation but also the cultural factors playing into it and into popular opinion within Russia. For that we have Dementia Joe and the incompetent Regency; Macron the Macaroon; the Germans; the British (who hopefully still have a decent MoD and aren’t going to replace the PM every week); and, Xi the unstable. Oh, and keep in mind that Great Leader, Khamenei (who is facing open rebellion), and a few others are fishing around in these troubled waters too. At a time where the world truly needs stable, intelligent, and competent leadership, this is what we have.

Russia is not the only country that may be frelled.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia SITREP 2Nov22

Right now, I’m really wishing the bookies in Vegas were running a section and taking odds on what is going on in Russia. Not just with the internal politics, but with pretty much everything else too. I would trust some streetwise bookies to better understand things and place odds than I would all the Ivy League intel professionals and politicians combined. If anyone could make sense of things, it would be the bookies.

That said, let’s take a look at what appears to be going on in Russia this morning. I don’t think I’m wrong when I say that I suspect pretty much none of us truly do know what is going on and understand it.

There are rumors that GROM did not go quite as expected. In terms of show, the public show was as expected with Vladimir in his Hollywood bunker at the Kremlin and various taped displays showing launches and such. Taped displays. One of which appears to have been interesting. I’m trying to find out more, and really want to get some good copies of some of the video. The CBN-ready troops were no surprise, as the Oligarchs learned long ago to have a group ready that could parade in gear of all types on television at need.

What is interesting is how far that gear and readiness truly extends. As with uniforms and so much more, there is growing word that MOPP and other gear that is supposed to be there and ready is not there. MOPP and other gear from the Soviet era is deader than a doornail. APCs, tanks, and other delights that are supposed to be operational in a nuclear environment require seals and filters to operate. When was the last time that maintenance was performed? The parts ordered and produced? Neoprene and other materials needed for CBN operations have a shelf-life. Just sayin…

Yes, they are cleaning out and restocking the shelters in Moscow. That is show for the domestic audience, as they are also continuing to push the whole ‘only America has ever used and we have never threatened’ bullshit to the internal audience. Right now, no one is seeing signs of this anywhere else. Which is good. We start seeing it elsewhere, we need to worry. Until then, attention is good but not too much worry.

Aside from one more threat, Vladimir and company have continued to stay quiet for the most part. Some of this may be pushback external; some may be pushback internal; and, some may be a glimmer of understanding about true states of readiness on all levels, not just nuclear. More than ever I think we may be looking at a situation where if 20 percent of nuclear forces on both sides work, it would be a surprise. Really don’t want to find out for sure, but as I’ve noted before, we (the world) can’t cave in to this nuclear blackmail or the situation will end up far worse than a nuclear war now. Then again, given the continuing unhelpful comments from the demented meat puppet and the incompetent Regency, we may get it despite the various sides trying to back down.

Amidst this, we also have a lot of politics being played. As I’ve noted before and will continue to emphasize, unless it happens in Moscow it doesn’t matter. Only exception, and it is limited, is if it happens in St. Petersburg. Right now, Vladimir still has Moscow locked up, though not as tight as he did a month ago. Various people and groups seem to be trying to prepare assets or bring them into play in Moscow, but it is muted and careful for the most part. Some may be simply preparing for a transition post-Vladimir, while others might be looking for an opportunity to hurry that process along.

The most interesting and amazingly open version of this is Prigozhin. When it looked like it was just him trying to take out Shoigu, I put my money on Shoigu. However, as I noted at the time, the combination of Prigozhin and Kadyrov, now joined by others, is a very different equation. Various reports now state that Prigozhin has confronted Vladimir over how things are going and the leadership of the military. There are unconfirmed reports that Col. Gen. Lapin, a favorite of Vladimir, has been sacked. There were even reports that he had died/been killed in Moscow. The latter were not believable, but at the same time speak loudly to the political maneuvers underway.

The fact is that Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and others are more than a little upset at how things are going, and want a more aggressive set of operations. How this will be done with the current supply situation (which is largely the fault of high-level corruption) short of going to special weapons is something not being discussed in public by them. Rumors about in private, but not a lot in public, yet. There is also the possibility that they may join others in pushing to get out since they can’t win by conventional arms.

Recently, Prigozhin praised Zelensky and stated that he was capable and should not be underestimated. This is a radical departure from Vladimir and his inner circle. It may indicate many things, from setting the stage for ultimate withdrawal to taking things next level. The latter is not just nuclear, but also political in that Prigozhin may be working simply to put himself on the best possible footing for a post-Vladimir world. It could also mean, but most likely does not, that he’s open to creating that post-Vladimir world. With Kadyrov the kingmaker on his side, the options are open.

There is clearly, however, growing opposition to the war and a growing belief that Vladimir’s plans are unrealistic. Where that truly matters is in Kremlin leadership (including elements of the military not fully controlled by the Oligarchs) and the Oligarchia itself. Public opinion outside of Moscow means nothing. That said, public opinion in Moscow means a good deal, and the public is growing restive. Restive enough to help push change? Not yet, not really. May in time, perhaps even a short amount of time. The resistance in those upper ranks of leadership, however, means a great deal.

The thing is, those stress fractures I’ve talked about before are growing. Vladimir’s health seems to be a growing topic within the Kremlin and Moscow. That things aren’t going well in the special military operation is finally being admitted in circles where such discussions were not permitted before. While public facades are being maintained in many cases, what lies behind is not the picture being presented.

Again, I really wish the bookies in Vegas were running odds on the internal politics as I think they might make more sense out of things than I or anyone else. There is always a degree of politics in play at any given time, but right now there appears to be a lot of jockeying for position going on besides that of Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and company. Good or bad remains to be seen, at least from our viewpoint.

Please just remember that even if Vladimir were to go away today, most of those likely to replace him are even more hardline than he. Most of those in a position to replace him are both adherents to Russkiy Mir and adamant Slavophiles. None of them are of the Western faction. A change of leadership does not mean any of the short- or long-term problems go away.

Oh, and before I forget, the Brits are increasing their lead in the threats from the Kremlin/Vladimir. Yet more have come out in just the last week, with the Russians blaming the Brits for the pipeline explosions. Worth noting.

As for what will happen and the chances of nuclear war? Your guess may be as good as mine. 60/40, 40/60 the odds don’t seem to have changed a whole lot right now. I still expect that if Vladimir stays alive and in power that he would rather see the Ukraine uninhabitable if he can’t have it. Causing problems at the nuclear power plants is a great way to do this and he can claim it was the Ukrainians doing dirty bomb work. He may be willing to openly target them. Then again, he could also push forward with the throughly discredited dirty bomb hoax though that will not work out for him as he thinks it will. His options are in many respects increasingly limited, and rats trapped in corners, even by their own actions, are potentially at their most dangerous.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Most Interesting Speech

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As I noted yesterday, I spent some time listening to Vladimir’s speech and digesting it. To be honest, I also was looking for/waiting for some other things I suspected might be coming.

Meantime, it was also amusing to watch some of the very predictable coverage of the speech. The alarmists/click-baiters fastened onto his comment about this being the most dangerous decade since the end of WWII, predictably. More on that topic in a moment. Those who missed a lot of message and context referred to the speech as “boring” or “deluded.”

On the surface, the speech was predicable, plodding in some respects though it appeared Vladimir went off-script in a few places (interesting in it’s own right) based on the translator’s reactions. On the surface, yet another recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir and the subsequent invasion. I’d say that at least 95% of the canned speech was aimed at the internal audience, though if it reached useful idiots abroad, great. I’d say less than 5% was aimed at the non-Russian audience.

From an outside viewpoint, the majority of the speech could be described as delusional. In fact, after a couple of points, I noted on social media that I could have sworn that I saw his nose grow. Yet, in terms of his intended audience, it was not delusional though it might be aimed in part at encouraging delusion on their part.

Between it and the parts of the Q&A I got to hear, the speech was a reminder of all that led to the creation of Russkiy Mir. Russia has always faced enemies, Russia and the Russian people have been done wrong time and time again, with outsiders (particularly the west and noticeably emphasized in the speech was Great Britain) treating both like Crystal Gale was done in so many of her songs. Russia has always been the victim, never the aggressor. Vladimir, that offspring of the working class, scion and defender of the Church, faith, and all that is good and right (note all the discussion of transgenderism, wokeness, and related), has been elevated not merely to defend Russia but to save and advance it.

Keep in mind the memetics of this (as well as the work of Gramsci and the huge amount of Gramscian damage in the West). Russia is a very different culture from our own. Always has been. To better understand that and the historical roots of same, please read Kamil Galeev on Twitter or the Threadreader App. Keep in mind that within that culture there is an ongoing fight between those who are Slavophile versus those who feel Russia should look to the West and adopt Western ideals. Right now, the Slavophile element is in control, and the last full leader of the Western view (such as he was), Gorbachev, is now dead and buried.

Logic and reason have a place in Russia, but not the pride of place it (allegedly) has here in the West. Mythology, if you will, can and does matter more in swaying public opinion. Just look at the recent assassination of the daughter of “Putin’s brain” or philosopher. That it was most likely (IMO) an FSB operation that really was intended to get him and her, but just getting her worked too within the politics of the day. Yet, it immediately became the tale of the virtuous Russian maiden, slain by treachery and deceit by a vile female Ukrainian Nazi. Full state funeral to emphasize the tale. How did it work? Outside of Russia, only a few useful idiots bought in. Inside Russia? Not as well as they would have liked. Reality, in the form of casualties and costs, limited the effect of the myth.

Which brings us back to the speech and the Q&A. Note how Vladimir started the speech, with discussion on ecology which he emphasized by noting that many might be surprised he started with it. That was something aimed at internal and external audiences, and many missed it. Instead of the normal lashing out at the West, Vladimir talked the need to conserve, preserve, and improve the environment large, and called out the small as well. In the entire speech, look at what was not said, not just what was said and in what order. The subtext to the speech was intended for several audiences, and I hope they were paying attention.

Ignoring some of the expected and predictable memetics, I will say Vladimir was not wrong about this being the most dangerous decade since WWII. We are entering a period that has the potential to make the Cuban Missile Crisis and other close calls of the Cold War look like child’s play. The old order, and old major powers, are failing. The Ukraine has ended Russia’s hold on the status of major military power, and exposed the rotten core within. China’s desperation may yet lead it to try to invade Taiwan, but even as it prepares to do so, it too is stumbling. In the West, the so-called rule of experts that hit its peak after WWII is falling. Anyone who thinks any power, or those who have wielded power for so long, are going to give that up easily and willfully is deluded. Given nuclear weapons and more, I’d say the case can be made that we are entering the most dangerous decade in the known history of humanity. It is not going to be a fun or easy ride, no matter what.

Again, note what he didn’t say in the speech. There was effectively no bluff, no threats, even almost an avoidance of direct talk of the war. It was not truly brought up until the Q&A. Now that got interesting, and again much of this was aimed internal, not external (save to useful idiots). The idea that Vladimir and Russia have NEVER threatened use, only hinted, was part of a well-laid campaign. Note how he brought up the threats from the British, which is going to play well in some quarters. The Slavophile dislike of the Brits showed through, just as it has throughout the invasion. Worth noting that they’ve gone after Great Britain more than they have the U.S. by a good margin. Leaving aside the hapless Truss, Vladimir was almost gentle in pointing out the threats of Biden. Which, given that the demented meat puppet and his incompetent Regency have chewed their shoes with their feet still in them almost continuously, is something.

Not sure what it says that I laughed along with Vladimir at the Khruschev comparison, but again note what wasn’t said along with what was said. No direct threats, though he invited all to read Russian doctrine on nukes. An emphasis on the threats incoming. The dirty bomb and nuclear plant discussions were interesting. Much wasn’t said, and how it wasn’t said was interesting indeed.

Which is why I was unsurprised to read this. Is it an opening? Maybe. Between the speech and a variety of reports I suspect that if a graceful way can be found to take the nuclear serpent off the table, though not out of the room, there would be interest in so doing. The question is if what it would take to do so is something everyone would be willing to do. It also depends on various leaders having the sense and counsel to realize an opening is there and not suffer the usual hoof and mouth disease.

Are we in any way, shape, or form out of the woods? Fuck no! At best we might have an opening to start discussing finding a way out of the woods. Are the Russians continuing with their pathetic (by outside standards) attempts at maskirova via dirty bomb? Yes. The fact that no one outside of Russia is really buying it doesn’t matter, that is aimed internal far more than external. Is the use of nukes, chemical, and other still a part of Russian doctrine, the same doctrine Vladimir invited one and all to read? Yes. Which means it is still very much on the table.

The key on all for now is the Donbas. Vladimir made that very plain yesterday. From historical claims on up, the Donbas now is at the heart of the issue. Which is why I say that what Vladimir wants may not be acceptable to all. What is needed for “peace” was made very clear by Vladimir yesterday. Which means that on the one hand we may have an opening to standing down the nuclear viper, and conversely we are in even greater danger than before. Now we know for sure the physical location of the schwerpunkt, and have a better idea of the philosophical schwerpunkts in play.

And yes, despite yesterday’s speech I still think that if Vladimir can’t have the Donbas (and the whole Ukraine), he’s perfectly willing to ensure no one can. Formally, for all he seems to have provided an opening, no option was truly removed from the table.

Before I close, be sure to watch his hands and legs during the speech. Telling. It seemed to take more out of him that he wanted to let on. Excellent make up job, even better than normal. Hmmmm.

Between this and the diesel situation (along with others) here, if you can, redouble your preparations, particularly food. Please hit my fundraiser so I can pay bills and do so as well. Stock up, hunker down, and let’s pray for the best.

*****

Nuclear Oz

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, GabPay, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Only this time, Toto wasn’t needed to draw back the curtain as the Russians never bothered to close it in the first place. Interesting being able to see the illusion they are trying to peddle (mostly to an internal audience, but also to idiots abroad) while watching the reality.

No, not really too concerned this morning about the reports from Russian MoD about the readiness of their CBRN units. Nor am I too surprised at the Sunday morning talk show push (in Russia) or the calls by Shoigu to various leaders around the world. And I’m definitely not surprised by the groundwork for false-flag operations being laid.

First, remember that we are supposedly in the middle of their annual nuclear preparedness exercise. If so, no surprise that the cream of the crop of the CBRN units are ready to put on a pretty picture. Real question is if it is a picture of reality or just another Potemkin Village. There are reports (and conjecture) out there that their true readiness for such is on par with their uniforms and other equipment thanks to rampant corruption.

Before I forget, I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off at the stories coming out blaming all problems on theft by individual troops. This has been covered a bit before, but after Putin sacked his generals (all but two) and even some higher ranks and gave the positions to oligarchia to loot, things got so bad that small units and even individuals did indeed start stealing equipment and such simply to be able to eat. Want to know if a story on this is out of the Kremlin directly or indirectly? If it focuses on the individual troops stealing, and ignores the higher-level corruption, it’s a Kremlin production no matter the masthead.

Second, the push on the false-flag/maskirova items, along with all the phone calls, is fairly simple. I agree with the ISW that a lot of it is intended to slow down or stop deliveries and other support to the Ukraine. If the Ukraine can be isolated to any degree, it will help Russian efforts. If it works to any degree, expect to see a lot more of it. That said, they truly are trying to set the stage, particularly to the internal audience (and the brain dead external) that it was all the dastardly Ukrainian Nazi Scumbags and not the sweet and innocent Russian troops and leadership. Cough.

For reasons I won’t fully go into at this time, I remain concerned that if things don’t go well, Vladimir will go after every nuclear plant in the Ukraine in an attempt to damage the country and destroy it by other means. Again, they may attempt some maskirova and engage in false-flag operations, but there are those in Russia who feel that if they can’t seize the Ukraine, then no one — especially the Ukrainians — should be allowed to keep it either.

Now, in regards the list of false-flag/maskirova, one thing to keep in mind, this isn’t the first time they’ve done this. Syria is but one example. If you have the time and patience, and go back into the Cold War, the same was done at different times (usually a time of tensions) so that if there was a war, they would already have the pretexts in place for escalation.

So, I find things concerning, but nothing more than that at this time. In fact, some of it is sadly predictable. There are some things I am going to watch for, and if I do see them, then I will be worried. Until then, simply vigilant.

For those on Twitter, I am on there as LaughingWolfOne and if you are looking for good sources of information, try my Intel list. There are a couple on there that I would highly recommend, as while not 100 percent right (no one is) they have a better track record than several of the three-letter and related.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.