Russia Update 9 Nov

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There really isn’t a lot new to update. The only change from the previous is that there are more signs that Vladimir is facing some serious opposition, but nothing (yet) that could take him out of power. The jousting for position continues, and it is hard to tell what is simply securing the best position possible versus trying to get in position to make changes.

Remember, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t mean a thing. There is the St. Petersburg caveat, but…

The one thing that has come up is a reminder from Kamil Galeev that the invasion of Ukraine and all that is going on has little to do with international relations from Russia’s point of view. The invasion stems from domestic politics, not international. It’s very true, and is something to keep in mind in the days ahead as international takes are going to have to deal with domestic realities when dealing with Vladimir and Russia.

If the military situation shifts in the occupied territories, then I expect to see some more open shifts within Russian domestic politics. Absent that, I expect to see things continue to bubble away under the surface as no one yet wants to make a true public move.

I will note that Vladimir and company have continued to go low-key on the nuclear rhetoric. Not sure if this is because of internal pressures, external pressures, or that secret talks are giving him what he wants. I reiterate that giving in to nuclear blackmail will have worse long-term consequences.

Meantime, if you want a fun little read, this article on Moscow shelters is actually quite enjoyable. Don’t laugh at the fact that one former shelter is now a tourist attraction, as we’ve done the same with at least one of ours. My thanks to Robert Hopkins on Twitter for the link.

Oh, yes, no sign of shelters being stocked outside of Moscow, which seems mostly for show. Same as before. Also, yes, Stalin had the subways put deep for a reason. He also had portions made truly beautiful and while they are no longer good shelter, at least the last time I was there they were still quite beautiful.

Frankly, since our national leadership is not going to step up to the task, I wish more state and local leaders would take steps to bring their shelters back online or build new ones. The threat of nuclear issues (war, deliberate meltdown, etc.) is but one of the reasons having those shelters available is a good idea. They can be useful in a variety of non-nuclear situations as well. Having them available also serves as a deterrent to those thinking nuclear war, terrorism, etc.

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2 thoughts on “Russia Update 9 Nov”

  1. As ISW observes, on Nov. 9 the Russian Ministry of Defense along with the commanding general announced the imminent withdrawal of the Russian Army from the west bank of the Dnipro River. (I cannot post the link, because apparently that’s forbidden — “spam protection”.)

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