Though I’m not feeling great, hoping this is the first of two posts today. With luck, I will get up the first Nuclear 201 post later today. Two quick things to keep in mind when getting the news today.
First, when you see stories like this one, take them with several grains of salt. The source for this story is a single-source opposition Telegram channel. Such can be useful for intel, but they are heavily biased and, like this one, don’t have the greatest track record for accuracy. Sure, they do get some things right but they also have a vested interest in painting that which they oppose with the darkest brush possible.
As to their points, I do think Vladimir came face-to-face with his own mortality 3-5 years ago. How, I’m not sure: it could be illness or other close call. I will say that he is not the man he was, and is very much off his game. Is he vacillating on nuclear or other special weapons? Unsure, though it appears various factions in the Kremlin and out are pushing for a variety of options including tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. How seriously anyone is taking that is the real question. The magic 8-Ball says ask again later.
I am finding the assassination of Darya Dugina to be extremely interesting. Others are coming around to my take that she was indeed the target, though I strongly suspect there were have been some joy and rejoicing had both she and her father been taken out. For those who don’t know, her father is Alexandr Dugin, who is often ascribed in the West of being “Putin’s Brain,” “Putin’s Rasputin,” or just Putin’s philosopher. It should be noted that such tropes are more a thing of the West and not of Russia.
Both have played up the Putin connection, particularly in the West. She, in fact, has been trying to coordinate bringing together various factions in Russia as well as reaching out to various socialist and far-right groups in the West. This type of empire building is expected to some extent, and it brings up financial incentives as well as power plays — both of which are potential reasons for her elimination.
Her father is indeed an ultra-nationalist, by Western standards fascist (and that may be a bit of understatement), and one of the cast-of-thousands who had input into the creation of Russkiy Mir. I would posit that a certain other (thankfully dead) philosopher had more of a role in some respects, but that may be an angels on the head of a pin argument. Dugin may or may not be a part of Vladimir’s truly inner circle, though there is some reason to believe he really isn’t part of the ultimate insider’s group.
With the bomb being powerful and under the driver’s seat — her seat — and given some other factors, I think she was the target. Again, if it had gotten both of them I suspect no one behind this would have objected. Now, the question gets really interesting: who was behind it? Vladimir has been cleaning house in some respects, as the Gazprom “suicides” show. When people begin talking to those they shouldn’t, bad things happen and a “kill them all” approach is the most likely. Was she talking to people she shouldn’t? Did she perhaps engage in a bit of Vladimir-is-failing-we-need-to-save-Russia and word get back?
Did some of the Western groups with whom she had been in contact, and who may have been involved in financial dealings despite sanctions, feel ripped off? Or decide she was a loose end who needed to be taken care of before she could reveal anything in the West? Did some of the groups inside Russia decide to take her out in a power play? Did a Kremlin faction see a chance to deprive Putin of an ally in the power struggle to come? Yes, yes, I think the first stages are underway, but the real fight is yet to come.
All valid and good questions, and right now there are no good or definitive answers. Along with the reports that someone high-up is talking to the West and trying to find a way out of the Ukraine debacle (again, take with a grain or several of salt), there may be as much speculation going on inside the Kremlin and Russia as there is in the West. For all that comes up on social media in Russia, there is caution and one would love to be a fly on the wall for some of the private conversations that are taking place.
Oh, before I forget, there will be a LOT of finger-pointing at the Ukraine over this. Russia does not want to admit to this being an internal affair, and it also is a chance to unite the people for the war effort. This is believable to a number of factions as Russia had quietly blamed the British for helping Ukrainian SF conduct missions well behind the lines. In fact, early on, there were several instances where various plants and refineries had “accidents” — some well east of Moscow even — that some in the Kremlin put down to such cooperation. Add to it the fact that the Brits were onboard with helping the Ukraine literally months before the invasion and MOD and other Intel had the situation right (unlike pretty much all US intel operations), and there is a reason the Russians were so (irrationally) mad at the Brits and threatening to nuke them. So, even as fingers point at the Ukraine, don’t be surprised if the Brits have a finger pointed at them too.
Just a few thoughts to start a Monday morning. Hopefully, more to come later today.
Some Previous Posts:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come
Past, Present, And A Hungry Future
If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova
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Nuclear War Posts In Order:
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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
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