Category: Preparedness

Nuclear 201: Some History

Some Quick Thoughts

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear war! Invasion! Tornados! Earthquakes! Floods! One of Vladimir’s farts being mistaken as the start of a chemical warfare attack!

Honestly, it really doesn’t matter. The number of disasters that can befall us is an infinity-minus-one situation. There are that many potential disasters out there, though since SMOD has repeatedly failed of it’s campaign promises I’m starting to rule it out (infinity-minus-two?).

What matters is that no matter the cause, there are only three things that can be harmed: people, places, and things. Within that, there are basically only three types of damage to each. The only thing that a nuclear attack does is add radiation to the mix even though it increases blast damage, risk of catastrophic fires, etc. Guess what, you are going to have the latter part in conventional operations (Dresden anyone?).

Heck, come to think of it, it doesn’t have to be an exchange of atomic weapons that creates the problems. Let’s say that instead of any sort of leader who wants to put his country ahead, Vladimir truly is the pissy little bitch his enemies claim he is. In which case he engineers the worst possible “melt down” at the largest nuclear plant in Europe just because he suffered a military defeat.

In a nuclear event, you are going to have the same decision matrices: stay/go, go/where, how/why. The complicating factor will be the ionizing radiation.

This is one of the few times where I think purchasing specialized gear is warranted. In fact, what I would regard as basics are some form of geiger counter and some dosimeters. If you have them, it’s going to make a lot of decisions easier, and possibly smarter (i.e. move away from the worst of the fallout, not accidentally into it). It’s also when full-face respirators or gas masks are going to come in handy.

The initial burst of radiation from the bomb? Best bet is to be below ground. Fact is, even in those zones of total de-struc-tion that people cry about, you are going to have survivors. Those below ground, in vaults, or just in well-built structures that provide protection. Long-term survival depends on being able to get out, and not having gotten what’s called an LD50 dose of ionizing radiation from the bomb, or pick up same from the fallout. Worse yet, you don’t want to breathe in that dust, as then it’s inside you emitting.

Push comes to shove, even a couple of layers of good t-shirt are better than nothing. Cover your mouth and nose, then work to get out. If you can get layers on, do so and cover as much of your body as you can in multiple layers. Remember, alpha and beta are stopped/reduced by those layers. Also, more importantly, that dust and other particles that land on you, you can get rid of up to 90 percent of it simply by taking off the outer layer later. Layer up, get out, and head away from whichever way the wind is blowing, as where it is blowing is going to be hot. If you can find shelter in a safe location, do so.

If you are outside of the impact zone, what you do is going to be based on a number of factors. If the structure you are in is not damaged, or not heavily damaged, unless you are directly under the path of the fallout, stay put may be the best option. Even if under, you may well be safer staying and waiting a few days. Again, stay/go is going to depend on the levels of radiation; your ability to shield against it and to filter out the fallout so that it doesn’t get in, and worse yet, into you. It’s going to depend on planning, luck, and a bit more.

If you have to go, the questions then become where, why, and how. In the 101-course, I talked a bit about options for staying, and for going. Maybe tomorrow we will get a bit deeper into that, but today I’m not feeling great and am going to call this a bit sooner than planned.

Oh, if the nuclear plant does melt down, the largest impacts will be on the Ukraine, Europe/Scandinavia, and Russia itself. The impact to the rest of the world will be measurable but despite a lot of fear-mongering to come, negligible.

Oh, and if anyone wants to buy me a geiger counter and some dosimeters, drop me a line. I don’t do Amazon for anything anymore, but might make an exception in this case.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear 201: Some History

Some Quick Thoughts

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Nuclear 201: Radiation

For those who have persevered and gotten through from Instapundit and/or elsewhere: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’ve chosen a new hosting provider and once bills are paid any gifts via the tip jar or fundraiser will go towards the move. Getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some.

Back in the day when I taught basic science at a small college part time, I would walk into class the day of the lecture on radiation holding a “device” in one hand and announcing that radiation had been detected. I would then reveal the device to be a radio, and use that as the launching point for the lesson. Today, were I to do that I would probably be met with absolute panic instead of eye rolls.

The fact is, we are surrounded by radiation pretty much every moment of every day. Light, radio waves, and other beneficial delights enrich our lives. Radiation, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. I’m going to skip the part of the lesson on the electromagnetic spectrum and get to the meat of today’s lesson.

The type of radiation you really need to be concerned about is ionizing radiation. That’s the nasty stuff that can damage the body and/or kill you. As always, this is a 201-level course and not a 500 or higher physics course.

Ionizing radiation gets its name because the subatomic particle or electromagnetic wave in question can strip electrons from a stable bond or state. By doing so, it converts items into ions (an atom or atoms that have gained or lost electrons), hence the name ionizing radiation. As with other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, some types of ionizing radiation can have beneficial uses (X-rays for example) when applied in a controlled/limited amount. It’s when the dosage and type of ionizing radiation is not controlled that things get interesting.

Most texts, especially lower-level texts, break ionizing radiation down into three types: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Gamma is in many ways a “catch all” as neutrons, X-rays, and even cosmic radiation fall into that category.

Alpha is the easiest to deal with. Basically, two neutrons and two protons bound together, though that’s really not critical info for this lesson. The fact is, a piece of paper can stop alpha radiation. Most clothing blocks it, and the skin has as one of its functions stopping alpha radiation. It is, however, strongly ionizing.

Beta radiation is basically an electron or positron moving at high speed. It is actually less ionizing that Alpha, though more than Gamma. A thin sheet of aluminum (note, not foil) will stop beta radiation, though it is not a good idea to use it. Fact is, some forms of beta radiation can have enough energy to create gamma radiation when they hit such a shield.

Gamma radiation is not just gamma, but also pretty much the rest of the electromagnetic spectrum. To protect against it (that which you can protect against — there are some subatomic particles out there that pass through the entire Earth basically undiminished and are a bear to detect and study) takes serious shielding, such as concrete, lead, or special materials that combine layers of shielding.

Keep in mind that we are naturally exposed to some ionizing radiation every day. The atmosphere protects us from a good bit, but if you spend a lot of time in airplanes you are getting a higher exposure than you would if you stayed on the ground. It is also in the ground and otherwise around us. That’s one reason it’s a good idea to have your basement, or even crawl space, checked in certain parts of the country. The key is limiting the exposure.

To wrap up for the day, let’s talk radioactive materials. Radioactive materials are ones that are unstable in terms of their atomic structure, and as such give off energy (heat, ionizing radiation, etc.) as they “decay” into more stable materials. Yeah, yeah, there’s a lot more to it than that, again, this is a 201-level course. Don’t tell me your primary school introductory science course included bond types, valences, and other delights, especially since you were lucky to get baking soda and vinegar right…

Radioactive elements have what is called a half-life: the amount of time it takes for one half of the material in question to go away (change into a different form). For example, tritium (critical for nuclear weapons) has a half life of 12.3 years, while cobalt-60 (used in radiotheraphy/radiation treatments) has a half life of 5.26 years. Others, however, have half lives that can be measured in thousands if not millions of years, or, in fractions of a second.

This is important for our purposes as a nuclear bomb exploding is going to interact with the atmosphere, structures, and the ground in such a way that it will effectively convert non-radioactive materials into radioactive materials. Some of these materials will have a blessedly short (though energetic) half-life. Some are going to be around for a long time to come. In addition to radioactive contamination of the blast site, the nuclear explosion (and fires that follow) are going to send this radioactive material up into the air where it will eventually fall back to Earth. This is known as fallout, and it will be a significant part of survival after a nuclear explosion.

Tomorrow I think we will get into survival, preparedness, and some of the realities of radiation exposure.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Some Quick Thoughts

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9/11

Normally I don’t post on Sundays. Maybe one day I will get back to doing scheduled posts of photos, but it is a day of rest and more. Today, however, is a special day.

On this day, oh so many years ago now, I got to work early as was my want, got settled in, and began my morning check of the news. I was looking to see if anyone had mentioned our program or it’s commercial partners, along with other bits of news. I saw the flash of the first plane hitting, and I admit my mind jumped back to the B-25 hitting the Empire State Building. In short order, however, it was clear that this was not an accident.

I watched the second plane hit. I was on the phone to my NASA boss (veteran) telling him the United States of America was under attack even before the aftermath of the Pentagon hit the screen. I made the other calls duty required, and then, like so many, all I could do was watch. I kept my boss updated as best I could, as we all waited to see what happened.

I still get a chuckle out of one thing that happened. My NASA boss had been EWO ready back in his Air Force days, which made things easier as I could use shorthand, if you will, in talking with him. At one point, having had to go downstairs, I saw him across the lobby and let him know that the President was airborne in AF1, which was also now the National Airborne Emergency Command Post. Using shorthand, I simply let him know by using the phrase ‘the President is NEA-Capped’ which led to one other NASA person having the idea someone had gotten to the President and broken his knee cap. Clearing this up gave one and all a much needed laugh.

Then, we waited. Across the nation, burn and trauma centers stood to, and the Nightingales crouched in ready alert upon their pads. They waited, and their wait was in vain.

Then, later, I was there in NYC, after a flight that saw me teach an impromptu and off-the-books course on self-defense to the cabin crew before boarding. Funny how many of us in those days found ways (sometimes with the help of the crew) to put ourselves in places such that we could be between potential trouble and the cockpit. Locking the barn after, admittedly, but it was the mood of the moment, and people having tantrums on flights didn’t happen for a while there as fellow passengers put a stop to such immediately and, er, firmly. And, officially, nobody saw nuthin in such cases.

That first visit was officially for other things, but I spent one day in a series of interesting meetings and tours. I was at Ground Zero, and watched the searchers do their work even as the boots melted off their feet. With the fires and compression heating, in the early days they would often have to change out boots multiple times a day. The streets of lower Manhattan were still thick with the grey dust that was all that was left of the Towers and the people within them, and the smell of baked lime and burnt sweet pork still hung in the air.

I visited the ferry, and talked a bit with some of the people who got it up and running so fast. I met with leadership high and low, and even with the little men upon the stair who were not there. Got asked if I wanted to spend a little time on river patrol, which I did — like everyone else who signed up to work Ground Zero, that stayed with FDNY. Investigated a report of a body that thankfully turned out to just be a log. Still remember one of the crew pointing at the Statue of Liberty and saying to take a look while it was still there — yeah, we expected more would happen.

Over time, I think I visited every “temporary” emergency command post they had up until the current “permanent” one came online. This time, the politicians listened to them and while I’ve not been there, I was assured (with a degree of happiness I can’t truly get across) that it was nowhere near a target and done right.

I also learned about so many that day who did what they could, even at the cost of their own life. If you don’t know the story of Rick Rescorla, you should. Look it up. There’s a reason for the music above. There were more. The NYPD LT who was my guide/contact/minder that first time almost died twice that day, both times running to the sound of the drums.

Between that and some other events where I was a part of things as they unfolded, I’ve learned a lot about disaster preparedness and emergency management. I’ve even done all the coursework to be a federally-approved on-scene commander (need the practicums to finish). And I think that the current federal system is a mistake, as it is fed-way or the highway and only federally approved contractors can take part (including outside NGOs and the like). Just look at “Day Four, when the federal authorities took over ” for a clue. I guarantee you that this approach will take a minor event and turn it into a major disaster sooner, rather than later.

That story, however, is for another day. Today, sing the song of Rick Rescorla and all the others who died helping ensure others lived. Raise it to the heaven’s and let it shake the foundations of the temples of complacency and power. And remember the lesson that had they yielded to petty and bureaucratic authority, thousands more would have died in NY alone. Raise the song of all those who did perish, and those injured, that horrible day.

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts (please see previous post), feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Some Quick Thoughts

NOTE: If you had problems getting to the site, thank you for persevering and I will simply state that my hosting provider, Dreamhost, sucks. If I had the time and money I’d switch immediately at this point. Don’t, so can’t, but suggestions on good hosting providers most welcome. Given that I usually have a short time in which to write these posts, if the occasional typo/autocorrect error makes you meltdown, you might want to skip. These posts are high-level overviews, and if you want to discuss details, special cases, one-offs, etc. feel free but keep it civil and don’t pretend non-inclusion is a world-ending mistake to give yourself ego-boo. For all those (the majority of you) making good, solid, and thoughtful comments: THANK YOU! Such are very much appreciated.

In yesterday’s post, I failed to add in an important step. Before starting your evacuation, be sure to check any and all vehicles you can to see if any of them start. Some may.

Blast fronts, and even EMP, can do a bit funny on occasion. Terrain, structures, and other delights can create blast shadows and otherwise tamp the fronts. Having been through a “spontaneous disassembly caused by a sudden overpressure” event (the boffins were adamant it wasn’t an explosion as there was unburnt solid rocket propellant lying around), one of the weirdest and amazing things happened to the front of a nearby building. The blast front hit it and sheared off the bolts on the glass curtain front wall and moved the entire structure about ten feet in. Not a single pane of glass cracked or broke. The effort to get it moved back may not have been as successful, think they ended up taking it apart as the crew said no way to move it back without breaking it. Seen and heard of some other weirdness over the years.

The same can hold true for EMP, particularly from a local explosion. Structures and terrain have the potential to block or attenuate EMP and even the radiation front. So, be sure to try your vehicle, and/or any others you can access, before heading out on foot. One suggestion though is to have a proper container you can siphon gas into from any unworking vehicles to use in the one you can as you are not likely to find many working filling stations on your bugout. In fact, an extra-long siphon hose or mechanical crank siphon is not a bad thing to have on hand/with you so you can access underground tanks and even barrels.

While it may seem ghoulish, when checking for working vehicles be sure to check on that older neighbor who has the pristine older vehicle. If they no longer need it, and it runs… If they are alive, kicking, and wanting out, work with them and become a team. Win/Win.

Which leads to another point: know your neighbors. Odds are at least one of them will be good people, and someone you can work with in an emergency, be it an ice storm/power outage or nuclear war. While crowds are not my thing and are to be avoided in most circumstances, having a reasonable sized group is an advantage in a bugout situation. It allows more supplies and gear to be taken, mutual support, and if they happen to be current or former military (which tends to show) it’s going to discourage the looters and others attempting to prey on the weak.

In fact, it’s not a bad idea to get to know a number of people who have different skills. I actually know of some who ended up moving near each other so that in an emergency they could support each other. Sort of like one of those art communities but with an emphasis on preparedness that could also be presented as a historical group who could do blacksmithing and other “old fashioned” things for re-enactments.

Anytime you do have to do the bugout boogie, I want to emphasize something Dean Ing pushes hard in his works: staging. You may be starting out in a vehicle, but roads can be impassable, other things can happen, so you need to leave it and move on. If a car/truck/etc. can’t get through, what about trail bikes or even bicycles? You can even pull a cart behind them at need. Seem to recall a story where they started in an RV, dropped down to a car/truck pulling a large trailer, then to ATVs/trail bikes pulling smaller trailer(s), then to bicycles, and only in ultimate need dropping to foot. Ultimately, be prepared for it being by shank’s mare, but start at the highest level of transport you can get as you can always step down; but, it’s likely to be hard to step back up.

Also, while I focused on sitting tight to avoid the worst of the fallout, I also mentioned that I may be on the wrong side of the conflagration zone. If the structure of my building is too damaged, or the fires are starting/burning, I’m getting the heck out of Dodge. I’m going to see if any vehicle runs, but if not I’m moving out with what I can quickly grab or already have ready (have your bugout bags ready at all times!). I may or may not be able to clear the fires and/or firestorm, but I’m going to try my best to do so.

Just some quick thoughts that really didn’t fit in yesterday’s post.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

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Nuclear War Posts In Order:

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Nuclear 101: Survival

First and foremost, yes humanity CAN survive a nuclear war. Is it possible to destroy all life on earth via nuclear war? Theoretically, yes, but it would take enough work and planning that there are good odds the insane people behind such an effort would be detected and hopefully dealt with early on. The same applies for any effort to wipe out humanity.

A current full-level exchange will do tremendous damage to the world, its ecosystems, and reduce human population, possibly even significantly via the loss of major cities. That said, if humans survive in sufficient numbers, we will find ways to thrive and bounce back, it’s the nature of the beast.

While the best way to survive is to not live near a target, it’s not a valid option for many people. I will admit that in my efforts to move out West for my health, one of the factors I’ve used in deciding on location has included not being near any primary, secondary, or even tertiary targets. Until then, however, I do live in a target city: Indianapolis. I strongly suspect it is a secondary target based on the old Soviet doctrine to take out state capitals, and as such it would be a bomber and not a missile target. Let’s run with that as a base assumption.

First, let me say I sincerely hope the Russians have updated their targeting packages as back a few years/decades ago, in addition to the capitol complex they would have targeted the Ford and GM plants, Western Electric (which actually had a bomb shelter under it), and possibly a few other facilities. Given bureaucratic inertia, I would be unsurprised (though extremely briefly disappointed) to find out that the targeting packages had not been changed and the Russians were bombing empty fields and possibly a strip mall.

Manufacturing is no longer the target driver for Indianapolis. Aside from the state government, the largest player is logistics, followed by data/management activities and biomedical research. The Indianapolis International Airport is one of the largest air cargo operations in the U.S. and slated to continue growing as the planned major expansion hub for FedEx. While there is a large amount of rail cargo as well, four interstates and several state highways brings in a staggering amount of truck-hauled cargo each day.

For purposes of our discussion today, let’s limit things to a single 1-megaton device detonated over the state capital. What damage would it do? Check out this entry in Britannica and this page at McGill University for some answers.

Such a blast would not only take out the state government complex, it would also destroy much of the data/management and biomedical research that is concentrated in the downtown area, close those four major interstates, damage if not destroy the airport and prevent operations, and take out a good bit of warehousing and logistics operations.

For me, where I live in a basement room, I am outside the circles for immediate destruction and while the building will likely take damage it should not be destroyed in the immediate blast wave and overpressure. Where things are very iffy is with the thermal effects including firestorm moving out from the area of the explosion. Depending on a number of factors, I’m either toast or I’m fine given distance and location. Let’s go with the fine, and get into what I do to stay fine.

To be honest, as this is a secondary target, if I have a working vehicle I will have packed as much essentials as I have and be long gone given any warning. I have places I can go, friends I can visit, etc. But, let’s say there’s no warning. What do I do?

First up after the blast, I’m checking the building out and determining how long I can stay in said building. I’m also checking to be sure nothing is trying to start a fire or otherwise create a major hazard. There is a very brief period between a blast and when fallout truly starts to come down. Make the most of that very limited time. Even in that time, I’m covering my mouth and nose with a mask, or two- to three-layers of tightly woven t-shirt. The latter is NOT ideal, but works well enough in an emergency.

Many years back, I had some interesting talks with a group at Ft. McPherson about some possible consulting work exploring the use of everyday items in a response to a nuclear exchange. Yes, bunkers, MOPP, etc. may be ideal but are not realistic for the vast majority of people. So, we were going to look at how to improvise good responses. Sadly, that did not take off as new administrations have different priorities. Doesn’t mean I can’t suggest a couple of out-of-the-box ideas here.

Now, the fact is that I, like thousands of others, are going to have to leave because we are on that nasty edge. However, for a number of reasons, it’s going to be best to wait a few days if possible so as to minimize fallout exposure. So, once I secure the structure of the building (and, yes, you should also be prepared to provide security), I’m going to cover the windows to the basement as best I can if not already take care of before the blast. Then, I’m going to shift bookcases and other items in my room to enclose an area as close to the center of the structure as possible. Why the bookcases? Books make great radiation shielding. I’m going to steal some wood pallets from my landlord to create a raised area, then seal that area with plastic including over the pallets. I’m also creating an “air lock” for getting in and out of the area. Tightly woven sheets go over the plastic, providing extra filtration. Put pillows and such down, and you have a nice secure area as a base. Bring in some of your prep food, a 5-gallon bucket as an emergency toilet, and you are in about the best shape you can be at that point.

If I don’t have a keychain detector, dosimeter, or other manufactured device, I check my Kearny Fallout Meter I built when things started to go south. Build it, or buy the other stuff in advance, as after the bombs go off it’s a bit late… If all is good, or at least good enough, and I have enough extra plastic, I’m going to cover the larger room as much as possible. If I’ve planned really, really well, I should have enough stuff left to create a small decontamination area outside the room. If not, one improvises and yes, I do have plans for that as well. As I can, I’m going to help those around me that are wanting to survive and willing to work.

Once I’ve done what I can to create a safe zone, taken care of others as warranted, and done as much advanced prep work as I can, I’m going to hunker down in my inner shelter and wait things out. Presuming no emergencies or the need to defend the site, sit, wait, and see if the emergency radio I tucked away a while back works and if so, if anyone is broadcasting and hopefully providing useful information. If not, I’m going to keep an ear out for military vehicles or any form of announcements being made by people.

Let’s presume no evacuation effort happens, no major problems crop up, etc. After two-three days, or if the Kearny meter says it’s good, I’m going to have to leave. The structure is damaged, power is out which means nasty radioactive flooding if it rains, and a probably degrading security situation. During my wait, I’ve made my preparations to depart. My largest backpack is filled with food, first aid, defensive means, survival gear, etc. I’ve turned the wheelbarrow into a covered means of transport and it has water, food, and other needful things already in it ready to go. Every water bladder, bottle, etc. integral to my gear is filled. I have my medicines and such in the backpack, it’s time.

I’m dressed in layers, and over it all I have my oilskin coat (or duster depending on some issues) and my poncho over that. I’ve rigged a plastic cover over my waterproof hat to help keep dust away from my face. I’m masked up, gloved up, and covered up as completely as I can be. At first light I take off and begin to head out using tertiary roads as much as possible as main roads are likely to be impassible. Where am I headed? In real life, not saying.

In this scenario, I plan to head south then west and try to find transport. Heading this way should put me on a course away from major fallout and radiation. Just to be safe, I frequently check the fallout meter. As for all the waterproof outer layers? Makes decontamination a lot easier and keeps the fallout away from you.

Now, if I were further out from the blast, and was clear of the major fallout path, my preference would be to hunker down and shelter in place. If you have made sufficient advance preparations, and are in a good location, it really would be the best choice. The less you have to go outside, especially at first, the better. Be prepared to deal with refugees and guide them onwards towards help. Be prepared for other issues at need.

Also keep in mind that general emergency preparedness, or preparedness for inflation and food issues, is the same basic preparedness you need for a nuclear situation. The only difference is that you should add in detection gear and gear to help you deal with the fallout. Also, have the means for you and each member of your family/group to transport as much of that material as possible if/when you have to leave. Wagons, carts, wheelbarrows and other delights can be used for other things until needed for emergency use.

If you are interested in preparedness, start here on page 3 of my preparedness posts and work your way forward. Just remember that while the number and type of disasters can approach infinity, there are only a few types of damage and that makes preparation relatively easy.

Again, this is a high-level overview and I’m not getting into a lot of detail. If there is interest in that, let me know and I can look at doing some posts that drill down a bit and explore things in more detail. Also, as I noted the other day, find a copy of Dean Ing’s Pulling Through and buy it! That and Alas Babylon are two excellent books to have on hand. Meantime, the thing to keep in mind is that even near a target, with prior planning (and a bit of luck) it is possible to survive a nuclear blast or war. How well and for how long are up to you to a surprising degree.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

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Nuclear War Posts In Order:

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By Dawn’s Early…

First, some homework. While I would love for you to read everything I’ve written on Russia/Ukraine and Vladimir, reality says you are probably just going to skim this post. For those who truly want to understand what I’m going to write today, please take the time to read this update, this post, and this post. It’s not complete, but it does give you enough background for a foundation to today’s post.

Second, I’m going to do something no author or pundit is ever supposed to admit: I hope I’m wrong. Not a little bit, not a lot, but run away and hide in shame wrong. Mercilessly mocked wrong.

Now, let’s get started. The planned victory celebrations on May 9 for Czar Vladimir I aren’t going to happen. As noted before, the Ukrainians dared fight back, and won great victories. Vladimir shifted to take the East and South, but even there things are not going to plan. Not only are the Ukrainians taking a certain delight in offing Russian generals, they have apparently hit targets in Russia. I say apparently because I suspect the R&D fire was typical ineptitude (there’s a bit of history of such, particularly when R&D and production are combined); if the chemical plant was the Ukraine, my hats off to them; and, finally, some of the events are possibly false flag with both sides denying responsibility.

Why the false flag ops? Simple, Vladimir has to show that Russia has been attacked. He has been being extremely legalistic (by Russian standards) throughout, starting with declaring that there was a Nazi menace in the Ukraine. He has continued that even into the nuclear threats, and as he builds the case for a war. I had wondered a bit at why special weapons had not already been used as the Russian military has hit situations that called for such use per doctrine. However, since it’s officially not a war…

Vladimir very much needs to make this a war. With a formal war declared, he can keep his conscript and contract troops for the duration. With a formal war declared he can mobilize reserves and more. With a formal war declared, he can take the gloves off.

The question is, will the Ukraine be the sole target of his war? There are very interesting rumors that it will not be limited to the Ukraine. As I noted a while back, we are seeing an increasing emphasis on being at war with NATO and certain non-NATO countries that are providing assistance to the Ukraine have also felt Vladimir’s verbal ire. If those rumors and reports are true, at the very least, the declaration of war will directly or indirectly include NATO and other countries.

No, that’s not weasle-wording. Despite being a despot, Vladimir does not operate in a complete vacuum. There are arguments, let’s say, for and against naming one and all. A strong argument can be made (cough) for not listing but rather using a phrase like ‘and countries supporting the Ukraine or the attacking of Russian targets on Russian soil’ as it gives you a lot more flexibility. Keep in mind how legalistic he is being, and keep in mind his audience for this is not primarily the West (with caveat to come) but rather the internal Russian audience.

Vladimir is a true believer in the Russkiy Mir plan and a staunch Russian nationalist. Vladimir is of the school that sees communism as having been a poison for Russia because it was a non-Slavic philosophy forced onto Slavs. He also believes in the idea of ‘Escalate to De-Escalate’ as I’ve noted multiple times.

Right now, two options have caught my attention. In the first option, after a declaration of war gives him the troops and legal use of the full might of the Russian military, he can then use conventional weapons against targets outside of the Ukraine per the declaration of war. If he hits targets in the UK, Europe, or in route to the Ukraine, he then has a legal defense that he can present to Russia and the world for such, even as he threatens to use his nuclear arsenal if there is any retaliation. And, trust me, anything and everything will be a retaliation. Option two is much the same, but chemical, biological, or nuclear (tactical/small strategic) are used.

Vladimir is already well aware that Biden is terrified of a nuclear exchange or starting WWIII. For all that the dementia-ridden meat puppet told him that in talks a while back, there is the matter of Biden’s well-known anger issues. If anyone can name a single thing the so-called Biden administration has gotten right, please do let me know. Every effort to find or even build an off-ramp that might have worked (not sure Vladimir will take one even if offered) has been blasted out of existence by the Biden administration. It’s almost as if some of them want WWIII. The administration has proven Obama right when he said ‘Never underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.’ Yeah, single quote as I’m not sure it’s an exact quote.

So, I suspect any diplomatic effort out the current administration will simply strengthen Vladimir’s resolve. The contempt Vladimir feels towards most ministers and other government officials has been massively on display with Macron. He’s also very pissed off with the British right now (Russia/British relations are a large topic for another day, as a lot of it dates back hundreds of years). That leaves Xi, who has seen his alliance with Russia go sideways on multiple levels. Outside of those leaders, I’m not sure who could step up, have Vladimir actually listen to them, and find a good diplomatic solution. There are, of course, many bad diplomatic solutions most of which revolve around the world abandoning the Ukraine to its fate.

Now, let’s complicate things just a bit further. A while back, I noted that I had seen a change in Vladimir’s thinking that indicated a rather strong personal shock. The kind of thing where you realize your mortality, your country’s mortality, or otherwise had some type of Road to Damascus moment. While I noticed it a couple of years ago, whatever happened could have taken place as far back as five years ago. I’m not sure if the reported upcoming cancer surgery is related to it, but since I believe this report to be true you have to also accept that it is a factor in his thinking and planning. When I used the word Gotterdammerung the other day, I wasn’t joking.

If Vladimir and his clique have an ounce of sense, they will keep any and all attacks conventional. I’m not confident enough to place a bet they will. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on tactical use of special weapons. Under normal circumstances (whatever they may be), I would not see things escalating to a strategic exchange. With the situation as it exists now, I won’t bet against it.

If it were up to me, I would be looking hard for someone or several someones to try to find a diplomatic solution. I would be reaching out to Vladimir, I would be reaching out to Abramovich, I would be reaching out to the dog lounging at the Kremlin gates. It would be quiet, but it would be done along with trying to say the right things in public (something our administration has yet to do).

At the same time, I would be making sure a number of scheduled, “scheduled,” and unscheduled drills take place. I would be dispersing our nuclear forces and weapons. The Air Force would be testing plans to disperse fighters, bombers, tankers, and other aircraft to auxiliary fields. The Army would be doing much the same, so that one bomb doesn’t really take out a whole base. Every sub that can sail, would sail. The troops taking part in NATO drills or to bolster the defense of NATO allies? They need to practice dispersion and/or digging in, so do it. I would have as many in the line of succession off on business trips, junkets, etc. as possible. You better believe I would be making sure the E4Bs and E6Bs were flying. This can be done without officially raising our alert level, and I would be starting to do it NOW. Yes the Russians would see much of this. They are supposed to. It’s called deterrence. Right now, Vladimir believes Western leadership is too weak to respond. This at least helps diminish the strategic threat.

Edited to add: Patriot, Iron Dome, and any other ABM defense systems we have or can get is put out with the troops. Anything that can be activated CONUS should be activated, even if it’s been in orbit for a decade or two. Bring it all online.

What little influence I may have ever had in DC went away about the time Reagan left office. So, all I can do is look at stepping up my personal preparedness levels a bit more, and really really wish enough would come in to the fundraiser so that I could move now, now, now. I would suggest to you, my reader, that you up your preparedness levels a bit too. Given inflation and the growing amount of problems with the food chain, it can’t hurt to have food you normally use laid in.

I also will suggest prayer. The prayers offered up for me since I was hit by lightning last year have made a difference. Right now, I think our best hope is with the Devine.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

*****

Uncertainty And Preparation

Not much to say about the Ukraine situation today. The Russians are building up forces and supplies, but exactly when, where, and how they kick off remains to be seen. Trying to run down some information, but it’s not exactly like you can call someone up and say ‘Joeski, were those chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons you were loading?’ It’s not something where you could go into the deep/dark web for the modern equivalent of a dead letter drop. There does appear to be some validity to the charge that the Moskva was carrying at least two nuclear weapons, but it is not absolutely positively beyond-all-doubt confirmed. Just mostly confirmed.

If the pointers continue to point in a particular direction, I’m going to be amending my 60/40 odds. In fact, I’m likely to move it substantially higher.

I am laughing a bit at Vladimir getting called out about putting nukes into the Baltic. At least one government has pointed out that he already has them there, and asks if he’s going to send more? The loss of prestige and fear of the Russian bear is being clearly demonstrated.

In response to the question of what I would recommend stocking up on right now, I would say this. I think you should already have some stocks of food and other supplies in place. Given what we are seeing on U.S. winter wheat as well as problems world-wide, I’ve picked up some pasta and flour even though I do keto. I would also look at things like baking chocolate, tea, coffee — the things that come from areas that are likely to be hit hard by shortages and famine, and have to be transported by ship to get here. If you use a supplement(s) that depends on overseas production or raw ingredients, stock up. Same on spices. There’s no need to panic, but if you can flesh out your grocery list so that you are set at need.

Meantime, I’m going to continue to see what I can find out, what turns up, and hope that nothing blows up this weekend.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come