Category: Current Events

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 201: Fallout

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

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Nuclear 201: Fallout

There is fallout, and then there is FALLOUT. Thing is, you can have fallout without nukes going off. You not only have dirty bombs, but you can have incidents at places with nuclear materials — including nuclear power plants.

In light of Vladimir’s speech last night/this morning, and a very clear threat to ALL nuclear reactors in the Ukraine, it is time to talk of cabbages who want to be kings, and fallout and other things. Make no mistake, while Vladimir was careful to discuss it as if the Ukrainians or others shelled the reactor/reactors and to say it was a threat against Russia, it was a threat to the Ukraine and the West. If Vladimir can’t have what he wants, no one will have it. Message received loud and clear Vladimir.

So, be it a bomb, a dirty bomb, an accident at a facility with nuclear materials, or an “accident” at a facility with nuclear materials, fallout can be a nasty thing. Honestly, in some respects, you are better off with a nuclear bomb exploding. Yes, it can and will produce fallout; however, a fair bit of that fallout is going to be short-lived. When you have a dirty bomb, it depends on what material the terrorists (and if they are using a dirty bomb, they are, IMO a terrorist even if in uniform or service to a government) can get their hands on but odds are it’s going to be around a while.

Then you have nuclear power reactors, most of which are first generation tech at heart (really may need to do a post on nuclear power reactors and what can be done with second- and third-generation tech and the much improved safety they offer). To be honest, to have an accident even with first-gen tech takes some effort. If you look at Chernobyl and other incidents, most of them took some effort. In fact, people had to fuck up not only by the numbers, but work hard at it. Fukushima took an earthquake, tsunami, and some bad decisions/actions along the way, and even then wasn’t all that bad. Could have been a LOT worse if not for things done right from the start. If you can find it, Subsunk and I did a series of posts on Fukushima at Blackfive that I sadly can’t find a link to right now. Short version: nuclear power is one of the safest and most efficient options out there, and it’s greener than green. Suck it up, deal with it, and let’s get new advanced design plants built.

Deliberately targeting a nuclear power plant with artillery, bombs, etc. counts in my book as working at it. While I’m sure a direct hit on a reactor that spreads stuff around would be touted as a victory, the odds are that what they would like to do is take out the cooling system so that you have a meltdown situation, which would send lots of interesting stuff into the air and be hard to moderate and/or contain.

And, therein, lies the fun joys of fallout. If it all stayed in place, you could contain and deal with it. Yes, there are ways to deal with it including chemical reactions that can take at least some nasty elements and greatly reduce the half life (see Prussian Blue and caesium-137). But, by terrorism or other, the problem with fallout is that it becomes airborne. Depending on circumstances, it can rise high into the atmosphere and literally travel around the world and over time it falls out, down, and mostly adds a miniscule amount to the local background count.

We’ve already talked a bit about dealing with fallout from a nuclear blast, but some of it needs to be repeated.

The best way to deal with fallout is to avoid it. If you can, leave and make sure you are headed away from the prevailing winds. Part of your basic preparedness should include a knowledge of both the prevailing local winds year round (comes in handy for tree management as well as people doing stupid things) and potential sources of fallout, chemicals, smoke, etc. As you are leaving, even if things seem clear, cover, cover, cover. Wear a mask, wear layers, and make the outer waterproof if possible as it makes decon easier.

Departure not an option for whatever reason? Be prepared. If you have a fireplace and chimney, you need to be prepared to drop something over the top of the chimney that will come down a bit so as to prevent fallout (or chemicals, smoke, etc.) from coming inside. Need to be prepared to do that with any open vents or other delights. Heard tell of a person who had some very large tarps, lots of tape, and a plan to cover his house with the tarps like a huge tent to help send any fallout away from the house and foundations. If you have enough time, it’s an idea.

Rolls of plastic come in handy at a time like this, as you can cover the ceiling, walls, or even floor to help prevent anything that does get in from getting to you. Pick an interior room or rooms, cover, tape, leave a means of getting filtered air in so you don’t suffocate, and you are good. If you hang sheets on top of the plastic, it adds a filter layer that may help. Also, remember the discussion about books and bookcases, other uses for pallets, and everything you can to isolate.

The trick is, you want to do all you can to keep fallout (or other) not only away from you, but out of you. While certain forms will go in and pass through the body, other’s wont. Particles can get into your lungs and stay. Some can chemically bind with you. In which case, you have ionizing radiation from which you can’t get away. It’s why potassium iodide pills are not a bad thing to keep around (sadly, I’m allergic to iodine) as it can prevent radioactive iodine from building up in the body. While there are treatments for many of the things that can get into your body, the most effective treatment is to avoid needing treatment to start with.

This is one of the few times I would recommend having a good gas mask. If you don’t have one, get a respirator at the hardware store. Can’t go that route? A standard N-95 mask will work, but you are going to be better off going for an R-95 (or 99) mask and/or a -95/99 mask with activated carbon in it. In an emergency, two layers of good t-shirt is better than nothing. Throw in a broad floppy hat (with clear plastic hanging down all around past your chin), rain gear with a hood under the hat and over layers of clothing, and you are set to do the bugout boogie. The key is to keep particles from getting into your nose, eyes, or mouth.

Then, stay high if at all possible. Fallout falls, and once it hits the ground it is likely to flow with any water and make it’s way into low-lying areas. This is where geiger counters and dosimeters come in handy. Again, I don’t recommend a lot of specialty equipment be bought as a part of preparedness, but I do recommend a gas mask or industrial respirator, R/N-95/99 masks, and a geiger counter — especially with the world situation as it is today. Stuff happens, and most of this gear can do for a variety of situations besides nuclear.

If you live in the Ukraine and/or are near or downwind of a Ukrainian nuclear plant, my advice is to be prepared to cover up and do the bugout boogie. Have your essential documents, cash, etc. ready to go. Forget things, most of them can be replaced.

If you are not immediately downwind, shelter and filter. Keep an eye on the local levels and hope you have honest types in emergency management who will give you good info and do right by you. Be prepared to boogie if the situation changes.

If you are in central or northern Europe and/or Scandinavia, shelter and filter as needed. With luck, the impact could be low outside of the immediate area(s). Outside of dealing with airborne particles, real key is going to be any tendency for fallout to collect and create a hotspot or two. Yes, it is going to get into the environment and to some extent into the food chain (see Chernobyl, and also keep in mind the worst predictions about all the fallout from that did not come true).

Outside those areas, yes the radiation is going to be detectable but it is not likely to present any real hazard. If Vladimir carries through on his threat — and make no mistake that is exactly what it was — may the worst of it blow into the Rodina and be the gift that keeps on giving to those who created the situation.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Quick Initial Thoughts On Vladimir’s Speech

I may do a longer take later, but for now, some quick thoughts on Vladimir’s mobilization speech.

First, the delay of the speech is weird and a story unto itself. Speaks to a number of things going on internally.

Second, keep in mind that most of the speech was for internal consumption, which tends to confuse Western media and lead to some rather interesting takes.

It was a chance to lay out what and why to the public. You had the standard threats to the sacred soil of Mother Russia, you had the justifications of the special military operation in context of Russkiy Mir and more, and how the West is being mean and threatening Russia. How dare the Ukraine and the West fight back!

There was, of course, the announcement of a military mobilization, that any threat to the soil of Russia would be met with force and in context of that the idea of the use of special weapons was raised as was the specific use of nuclear weapons given Western threats to nuke Moscow. Vladimir also stated that referendums to join Russia by the occupied territories (and boy did he make a huge grab attempt on what he considers occupied!) would be honored.

Some quick take-aways. Any real impact of the 300,000 called up is at least six months to a year off. It’s going to take that long (or longer given how the system is busted and basic supplies appear to be short) to get them into the system and up to a useful standard — provided they aren’t treated like the conscripts from the occupied areas and tossed into the fray with little/no training or supplies. Unconfirmed reports that flights out of Russia are full with sudden reservations by males of an age to be called up.

Take by some here that they will use this to pull in experienced NCOs ignores the fact that they have none by our standards. Russia follows the Soviet model, where enlisted were short-termers who may not have really wanted to be there and were treated as scum and idiots by many. Officers were in for longer, presumed to be more educated, and frankly did the tasks NCOs would do in our system. Keep in mind LTs pull maintenance with enlisted (mostly) providing muscle at need.

I strongly suspect most of the 300k will come from east of the Urals. For a number of reasons, Vladimir and company do not want to stir things up around Moscow or St. Petersburg. They also don’t want any large masses of troops, particularly those called up or conscripted, anywhere near Moscow for obvious reasons.

More interesting in the order itself are the penalties on businesses that refuse defense contracts or to produce defense materials on demand. You can refuse once, but not twice. Penalties not directly specified but implied draconian for the business and those running it.

Also, keep an eye on the discussions that have been/are being held in Moscow with Belarus. Vladimir desperately needs Belarus troops as well as Russian to attack the Ukraine from Belarus. Even the threat of such would hold back troops that otherwise could be used in any upcoming offensives in the East/South by the Ukraine.

The emphasis on the Motherland and what I term sacred soil was very interesting especially in light of the discussion on special, not just nuclear, weapons. Some of the threats of nuclear were expected and frankly a yawn as it was a predictable attempt to bully the West into accepting Russia trying to claim a huge chunk of the Ukraine (apparently including “occupied” territory it no longer occupies). However, mixed in that was a very clear thread of any attack on or over Russian territory could/would result in the use of special weapons and all possible force.

That may be pure bluff or it may not. It is clearly intended to prevent the Ukraine from cutting across Russian territory to cut off and retake parts of the East and South. As well as to stop shelling and other attacks on bases, depots, etc. within Russia. Those clearly have hurt, and it showed in the speech.

One thing I’m finding interesting is that it is still a special military operation, and Vladimir is making no effort to use strategic bombing or even fully use the Air Force, which says some very interesting things. Part is internal politics and part is clearly something else. Just what that is, is the question of the moment.

There’s more, but maybe later. The final thing I will suggest is to look at the speech on its own, without newsies yammering or translators translating. Things are off. Delivery, phraseology, and even how he holds himself. Watch at least the critical portions closely and several times, and focus on different areas each time. This should have been a canned, perfect speech. It isn’t. Not sure what that means, but it is interesting to note. I could nit-pick the staging, but those are mostly cultural issues and it was tuned to an internal, not external, audience.

Hang on, things could get very interesting here soon in a variety of ways.

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Couple Of Quick Thoughts

Uh Oh

Into The Light: Mikhail Gorbachev

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Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear war! Invasion! Tornados! Earthquakes! Floods! One of Vladimir’s farts being mistaken as the start of a chemical warfare attack!

Honestly, it really doesn’t matter. The number of disasters that can befall us is an infinity-minus-one situation. There are that many potential disasters out there, though since SMOD has repeatedly failed of it’s campaign promises I’m starting to rule it out (infinity-minus-two?).

What matters is that no matter the cause, there are only three things that can be harmed: people, places, and things. Within that, there are basically only three types of damage to each. The only thing that a nuclear attack does is add radiation to the mix even though it increases blast damage, risk of catastrophic fires, etc. Guess what, you are going to have the latter part in conventional operations (Dresden anyone?).

Heck, come to think of it, it doesn’t have to be an exchange of atomic weapons that creates the problems. Let’s say that instead of any sort of leader who wants to put his country ahead, Vladimir truly is the pissy little bitch his enemies claim he is. In which case he engineers the worst possible “melt down” at the largest nuclear plant in Europe just because he suffered a military defeat.

In a nuclear event, you are going to have the same decision matrices: stay/go, go/where, how/why. The complicating factor will be the ionizing radiation.

This is one of the few times where I think purchasing specialized gear is warranted. In fact, what I would regard as basics are some form of geiger counter and some dosimeters. If you have them, it’s going to make a lot of decisions easier, and possibly smarter (i.e. move away from the worst of the fallout, not accidentally into it). It’s also when full-face respirators or gas masks are going to come in handy.

The initial burst of radiation from the bomb? Best bet is to be below ground. Fact is, even in those zones of total de-struc-tion that people cry about, you are going to have survivors. Those below ground, in vaults, or just in well-built structures that provide protection. Long-term survival depends on being able to get out, and not having gotten what’s called an LD50 dose of ionizing radiation from the bomb, or pick up same from the fallout. Worse yet, you don’t want to breathe in that dust, as then it’s inside you emitting.

Push comes to shove, even a couple of layers of good t-shirt are better than nothing. Cover your mouth and nose, then work to get out. If you can get layers on, do so and cover as much of your body as you can in multiple layers. Remember, alpha and beta are stopped/reduced by those layers. Also, more importantly, that dust and other particles that land on you, you can get rid of up to 90 percent of it simply by taking off the outer layer later. Layer up, get out, and head away from whichever way the wind is blowing, as where it is blowing is going to be hot. If you can find shelter in a safe location, do so.

If you are outside of the impact zone, what you do is going to be based on a number of factors. If the structure you are in is not damaged, or not heavily damaged, unless you are directly under the path of the fallout, stay put may be the best option. Even if under, you may well be safer staying and waiting a few days. Again, stay/go is going to depend on the levels of radiation; your ability to shield against it and to filter out the fallout so that it doesn’t get in, and worse yet, into you. It’s going to depend on planning, luck, and a bit more.

If you have to go, the questions then become where, why, and how. In the 101-course, I talked a bit about options for staying, and for going. Maybe tomorrow we will get a bit deeper into that, but today I’m not feeling great and am going to call this a bit sooner than planned.

Oh, if the nuclear plant does melt down, the largest impacts will be on the Ukraine, Europe/Scandinavia, and Russia itself. The impact to the rest of the world will be measurable but despite a lot of fear-mongering to come, negligible.

Oh, and if anyone wants to buy me a geiger counter and some dosimeters, drop me a line. I don’t do Amazon for anything anymore, but might make an exception in this case.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

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Nuclear 201: Radiation

For those who have persevered and gotten through from Instapundit and/or elsewhere: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’ve chosen a new hosting provider and once bills are paid any gifts via the tip jar or fundraiser will go towards the move. Getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some.

Back in the day when I taught basic science at a small college part time, I would walk into class the day of the lecture on radiation holding a “device” in one hand and announcing that radiation had been detected. I would then reveal the device to be a radio, and use that as the launching point for the lesson. Today, were I to do that I would probably be met with absolute panic instead of eye rolls.

The fact is, we are surrounded by radiation pretty much every moment of every day. Light, radio waves, and other beneficial delights enrich our lives. Radiation, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. I’m going to skip the part of the lesson on the electromagnetic spectrum and get to the meat of today’s lesson.

The type of radiation you really need to be concerned about is ionizing radiation. That’s the nasty stuff that can damage the body and/or kill you. As always, this is a 201-level course and not a 500 or higher physics course.

Ionizing radiation gets its name because the subatomic particle or electromagnetic wave in question can strip electrons from a stable bond or state. By doing so, it converts items into ions (an atom or atoms that have gained or lost electrons), hence the name ionizing radiation. As with other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, some types of ionizing radiation can have beneficial uses (X-rays for example) when applied in a controlled/limited amount. It’s when the dosage and type of ionizing radiation is not controlled that things get interesting.

Most texts, especially lower-level texts, break ionizing radiation down into three types: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Gamma is in many ways a “catch all” as neutrons, X-rays, and even cosmic radiation fall into that category.

Alpha is the easiest to deal with. Basically, two neutrons and two protons bound together, though that’s really not critical info for this lesson. The fact is, a piece of paper can stop alpha radiation. Most clothing blocks it, and the skin has as one of its functions stopping alpha radiation. It is, however, strongly ionizing.

Beta radiation is basically an electron or positron moving at high speed. It is actually less ionizing that Alpha, though more than Gamma. A thin sheet of aluminum (note, not foil) will stop beta radiation, though it is not a good idea to use it. Fact is, some forms of beta radiation can have enough energy to create gamma radiation when they hit such a shield.

Gamma radiation is not just gamma, but also pretty much the rest of the electromagnetic spectrum. To protect against it (that which you can protect against — there are some subatomic particles out there that pass through the entire Earth basically undiminished and are a bear to detect and study) takes serious shielding, such as concrete, lead, or special materials that combine layers of shielding.

Keep in mind that we are naturally exposed to some ionizing radiation every day. The atmosphere protects us from a good bit, but if you spend a lot of time in airplanes you are getting a higher exposure than you would if you stayed on the ground. It is also in the ground and otherwise around us. That’s one reason it’s a good idea to have your basement, or even crawl space, checked in certain parts of the country. The key is limiting the exposure.

To wrap up for the day, let’s talk radioactive materials. Radioactive materials are ones that are unstable in terms of their atomic structure, and as such give off energy (heat, ionizing radiation, etc.) as they “decay” into more stable materials. Yeah, yeah, there’s a lot more to it than that, again, this is a 201-level course. Don’t tell me your primary school introductory science course included bond types, valences, and other delights, especially since you were lucky to get baking soda and vinegar right…

Radioactive elements have what is called a half-life: the amount of time it takes for one half of the material in question to go away (change into a different form). For example, tritium (critical for nuclear weapons) has a half life of 12.3 years, while cobalt-60 (used in radiotheraphy/radiation treatments) has a half life of 5.26 years. Others, however, have half lives that can be measured in thousands if not millions of years, or, in fractions of a second.

This is important for our purposes as a nuclear bomb exploding is going to interact with the atmosphere, structures, and the ground in such a way that it will effectively convert non-radioactive materials into radioactive materials. Some of these materials will have a blessedly short (though energetic) half-life. Some are going to be around for a long time to come. In addition to radioactive contamination of the blast site, the nuclear explosion (and fires that follow) are going to send this radioactive material up into the air where it will eventually fall back to Earth. This is known as fallout, and it will be a significant part of survival after a nuclear explosion.

Tomorrow I think we will get into survival, preparedness, and some of the realities of radiation exposure.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

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Nuclear 201: Effects

For those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.

Okay, in Nuclear 101 we sort of glossed over the effects and just went with a form of “bad” to describe them. We’ve alluded to some effects in 201, but now is the time to start exploring what happens when a bomb detonates. So, today we are going to get into what happens and what it means to you.

There is a good bit of information out there, though on a personal basis I tend to avoid anything from the Union of Confused Scientists (or those that travel with them). If someone is focusing on the politics and max damage, check out another site. Also, watch for the use of the “terror terms” like ‘zone of total destruction’ and those describing massive radiation effects. Remind me and I will get more into the types of ionizing radiation (the bad stuff) next week when looking at practical preparedness. For a fictional but accurate account, see Tom Clancy’s Sum of All Fears.

If you could somehow watch the process, as the bomb detonates you would see a massive burst of radiation. While X-rays are part of the detonation cycle, what results from the reaction is a wave of neutrons. This pulse is going to fry any and all electronics nearby, including the bio-electric computer that is the human nervous system. Immediately after is a burst of heat. Well, to describe it as intense heat is a bit of understatement.

Immediately thereafter is the pressure wave. Referred to as overpressure, this blast takes the damage up and can devastate a large area. How large depends on the size and type of bomb, as well as where it detonates. More on that in a bit. Now, also depending on the type and size, you can get a preliminary vacuum effect where the blast first sucks in all the air around it, then sends it back out again with the pressure wave. Look at some of the old above-ground test footage to see that in action.

Now, along with all this, you are going to get various types of radiation spreading out as well. This is going to come, in large measure, from incomplete reactions within the bomb and the surroundings it consumes. Again, next week we will get a bit more into this and the concepts of radiation versus ionizing radiation.

I admit this is rather simplistic. Then again, this is the 201-level course and not physics 990.

What it means is that what we have to consider in planning is:

An initial wave of neutron radiation, for 201 purposes we will assign this the smallest area of effect;

An intense burst of heat, potentially several hundred million degrees, in a larger area; and,

A pressure wave that will race out and damage a significantly larger area.

Now, thanks to the heat and pressure, you are also going to have an area subject to (potentially massive) fires.

An easy way to think of it is as an onion. The core area is the initial burst of radiation. Just out from it you have the area subject to the intense heat. The next area out from that is what is damaged by the overpressure. Out from that, you have an area that between that blast of intense heat and damage short-of-massive-destruction is probably going to catch fire and burn. There is a concept known as firestorm that is really a 301- or even a 401-level course that suggests large cities are going to basically go up in flames, particularly if thermonuclear weapons are used.

Now, does this mean you can sit down to a map and plot out a uniform damage area no matter the target? No. Not only does the radius of those bits of “onion” change with the size and type of device, it also changes with the location of detonation.

If you want to cause the most damage to the widest possible area, you set your nuclear bomb to go off in the air, what is called an air burst. For each size of bomb, there is an optimum height above ground for detonation to ensure maximum damage to the largest area. This is why I went, in previous discussions, with an airburst attack on Indianapolis. Doing an airburst will do the widest possible destruction, ensuring that interstates, rail, air, etc. are taken out even as leadership and corporate leadership based downtown are destroyed as well. To be honest, my worst-case estimates of such an attack have pretty much everything within 465 as toast given the potential for fires. If Indiana is lucky, 465 may serve as a firebreak on all but the south side.

Now, let’s say that Vladimir likes High Tax Holcomb about as much as most voters, and learns that he has a bunker stocked with caviar, fois gras and champagne in the basement of the circle jerk (state government complex) so that he can ride things out in style while the peasants get what they deserve. In that case, he might use a ground-burst. In that case, the nuclear device would explode at ground level. This will maximize destruction downtown, but limit the blast zone. While downtown will be heavily damaged/destroyed, the areas out from there are not as likely to suffer blast damage and/or fires afterwards though fallout is going to be much heavier.

Now, let’s say that High Tax Holcomb’s WEF buddies chipped in and got him a deep bunker to ride out riots, revolutions, or war. In that case, Vladimir might opt for a deep-penetration vehicle which would take the bomb deep underground before detonation. Unlike an underground nuclear test, such a detonation will breach the surface. Thing is, there will be little of the traditional effects above ground, though an area (size depending on the size of the bomb, depth, etc.) is going to rise up and then subside. Overpressure and thermal damage will be minimized at the surface, though fallout could be massive depending on how much of the blast does make it out. To get an idea of what the ground will do, check this out.

Now, when you read about zones of total destruction and the like, keep in mind that all explosions, including nuclear, are peculiar beasts. Various things, including atmospheric phenomena, can alter or shape blast fronts. If you look at Hiroshima, you can see a toroid-effect around the exact center of the blast where things were heavily damaged but not completely destroyed/vaporized. Even with an airburst, structures on the ground may shield areas. As I noted earlier, I’ve seen some amazing things happen with blast fronts.

Surviving in the immediate zone of damage/destruction depends in large measure on luck, on being underground (deep even), and well protected. The closer you are to the target, the deeper you need to be. You also better be prepared to dig yourself out and get out. The further away from ground zero the better the odds of your survival.

Next week, we will start taking a look at what is needed to survive in a nuclear environment. Keep in mind that quite a lot can be done to prepare within the precepts of practical preparedness, as while there are an almost infinite number of potential disasters, there are less than five types of damage. Makes planning and preparation much, much easier.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

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An Era Ends

The Queen is Dead! God Save The Queen.

For all that I am glad I don’t live under any monarchy, I liked Queen Elizabeth II; I admired a number of aspects about her; and, I respected even more. She was a better friend to the U.S. than many may ever know or realize. From all accounts she would be the first to admit she wasn’t perfect, but she set a standard few can measure up to.

For me, you gotta love that as a teenager facing the Blitz, she learned to shoot Winston Churchill’s tommy gun; reportedly received rather extensive weapons training as both she and her father said no to leaving in the face of invasion (rumor has it the initial response was rather pithy, and the public statement was a bit more diplomatic but also blunt). In addition, she learned car repair/mechanics and drove an ambulance during the blitz. When not driving, she worked on said ambulances. Fearless is one of the descriptors used in regards her driving, again rumor suggests a few others were applied as well. She reportedly retained a keen interest in both the military and intelligence throughout her life, possibly to the dismay of certain prime ministers. She also had a quick way with people who, er, got on her bad side. Personally driving the Saudi monarch around on a tour after that gentleman had made some comments in public about women drivers was just one of them. There is more I could say, but for now, I will simply say:

God Bless Queen Elizabeth II! May God have mercy on the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth, and all those who morn her passing. We will not see her like again anytime soon.

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Really wanted a catchier title this morning, but the imagination just isn’t cooperating. In some ways, this lesson is a hodge-podge of concepts yet it really isn’t. Instead, it takes scenarios and targeting and puts them into a plan that is governed to some extent by policy including (one hopes) how and when things escalate.

Absent some serious flip-ups, the detonation of a single nuclear device, or even two, should not result in a full-scale nuclear exchange. I will note that this is dependent upon Dead Hand not being programmed/ordered to do so on the Russian side, and a couple of other minor caveats, but one or two detonations — particularly in the tactical range — should not trigger all-out nuclear war.

First up, let’s explore a couple of points of policy. Absent signs of a massive full-scale attack by any enemy, the unofficial policy of the United States has been more towards restraint and proportionality. I say unofficially as the U.S., like most nuclear powers, has been coy about discussing what it will or won’t do in response to any attack. The idea is to avoid getting locked into a set of actions that might not be the best option(s) under the circumstances. Having the maximum amount of flexibility in deciding when, where, and how to respond is a very good thing.

For all that Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was and is a thing, most people with any degree of sanity really want to avoid that. After all, you flush yours and we flush ours has a degree of finality to it for all the governments of the world, and isn’t going to be that good for the world in general. So, even if highly unofficial, flexibility is preferred by leaders with a degree of sanity everywhere. Those without sanity, or highly desperate, are the reason MAD put the world at the mercy of the least stable (mentally, politically, otherwise) leader(s) anywhere.

Which does bring up a number of issues, including how does one respond to someone using tactical nuke(s), or that is using chemical, biological or other weapons. I grew up and spent years using CBN (chemical, biological, nuclear) rather than WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) or the current CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive). The latter encompasses a much broader range of nastiness, though I think WMD does cover things from a legal standpoint. Despite what some may think, the U.S. is not party to any treaty that bans the use of Fuel-Air Explosive (FAE), thermobaric, or other weapons. Reminds me, there is someone I need to ping to see if they might be willing to do a guest post on the various Geneva and Hague conventions and what the U.S. is, and is not, signed up to.

It was long the position of the United States that anyone using any type of WMD (CBRNE, MNOPQRS, or whatever) was effectively using a nuke and would be responded to as if they HAD used a nuke. The policy had the desired effect in that it made rogue states (and others) think twice and at least openly avoid using any type of WMD. It also gave the Soviet Union some pause in regards its doctrines calling for the use of various WMD in military operations. That it may also have helped to lead to some treaties limiting biological and other bits of nastiness is a plus in my book.

However, back in the Obama administration we got the famous “red line in the sand” incident involving Syria and Russia. If you are not familiar with what happened, you do need to look it up. From where I sit, it turns out the lines weren’t red and were indeed written in the sand as there was no real response to the (alleged) use of chemical weapons by Syria and/or Russia.

Which does put the Biden administration in a bit of a bind. If Russia uses WMD in the Ukraine, does it hold to the stated policy or, once again, let it slide? If chemical or other, there is undoubtably going to be a LOT of pressure to let it slide. But, what if it is nuclear? My bet is lots of pressures from a lot of different directions, including from Vladimir with his “escalate to de-escalate” idiocy. Given that Biden reportedly told Vladimir well before the invasion of the Ukraine of his terror at the thought of a nuclear exchange, much less a nuclear war, who knows how either will react.

Which leads us (hopefully) to SIOP. The Strategic Integrated Operations Plan builds on all those scenarios discussed (or at least alluded to) yesterday. Within it are a series of responses to almost any set of circumstances that arise. This includes major and minor targets/target packages per each circumstance. In this case, Biden should already have been briefed in on SIOP when he was VP and should have taken part in some exercises that are designed to get those involved familiar with protocols, options, and other good things. This should have been updated when he because POTUS. Problem is, as Tom Clancy noted in his works, you can get administrations who blow those exercises off…

For our 201-level discussion, let’s start with the idea of Vladimir and Biden staring at each other with steely gazes and firm resolve over the Ukraine. As they jut their jaws and double down on showing firm resolve, the Duchy of Grand Fenwick uses Iran and Pakistan to attack the U.S. (or NATO) while everyone is looking with bated breath at Vladimir and Biden.

Got news for you, it doesn’t mean that everything we have launches at Vladimir. In fact, as a missile officer explained to me many years ago, the only time everything is aimed at one location is right before launch. In fact, he used the analogy of Countries A and B being in a fight (or ready for one) and Country C coming up and shooting Country A in the back. Do you shoot B because C shot you in the back? No. You turn around and shoot Country C.

In this case, it’s obvious pretty quickly what has happened. As a result, SIOP provides options that result in the President choosing target package MOUSE 7 which sends the appropriate weapons by the appropriate means to the assigned targets in those countries (and elsewhere) as needed. In this case, elsewhere could include the cruise liner charted by the Duchy to take its population out to sea so as to survive retaliation. Too bad they didn’t do more OPSEC on that…

SIOP is intended to provide a range of options for each scenario so that POTUS (or successor) can choose the right response given the situation. Within that is some flexibility in regards major and minor targets. The idea is, in part, to keep things equitable if you will. The problem with that, however, is that people are people. Leaders can miscalculate, they can misinterpret data or what is being said to them by their opposite number(s), and they can just flat out flip-up. A good example is in the movie By Dawn’s Early Light where the Russian launch at China is mistaken for another attack on the U.S., which leads to an escalation. That really should have been taken care of by notification through the hot line teletype, but it makes for decent movie…

In short, communications are the key. It’s why in the past a LOT of effort has gone into establishing and maintaining both official and unofficial lines of communications between governments and administrations. It’s why efforts were made to ensure the leaders had some understanding of each other. It’s why even when seconds count, people usually try to communicate. When they don’t is when you get things like the massive flip-up that was the weather rocket incident. Thought for the day: you can never have enough communications and redundant communications. No matter how much you have, there is always someone who does NOT get the word. Plan on it.

For all that the use of WMD, including tactical nuclear weapons, does not have to mean escalation to a larger nuclear exchange, I am concerned that such will happen. When you have one leader who not only threatens such on a regular basis, but has members of his administration talk about total nuclear war and how ready they are for it to the media and others (and even the animals at the zoo as enthusiastically as they go about it), it does not make fertile ground for restraint or for the concept of “escalate to de-escalate” to work as planned. In fact, it pretty much ensures that it won’t work. Throw in an opposite number of advanced age and concerns over mental competence, who spends a good bit of his time threatening and running down the majority of his own citizens, and it is a recipe for something nasty, not tasty and good. It creates a situation ripe for misinterpretation and misunderstanding.

To be honest, the best we can do right now is hold on, hope that the systems on both sides are weighted toward restraint, pray, and prepare. Anyone who says that Russian use of non-nuclear WMD is different from the use of nuclear, well, either doesn’t know history and historical policy, or is just a flippin idiot whistling past the graveyard. Things do NOT have to escalate, but it does depend on reasonable, competent, and frankly brave leadership on every side. May the situation never arise, but if it does, may the leadership on each side rise to the occasion.

*****

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