Current Events – Page 31 – The Laughing Wolf

60-40

The question that continues to be asked is if we are going to have a nuclear war. The honest answer to that is: I don’t know. There are a large number of variables and based on where everything is this morning, I think the odds might be as high as 40-60 right now.

The real question people should be asking is if we will have a nuclear incident. I use that phrase deliberately, as there is an option on the table that is either being ignored or overlooked. Right now, I think the odds of a nuclear incident are 60-40.

There are a lot of factors in play. Here’s my take on just a few of them.

First, to say there are cracks emerging in Russia is an understatement. It would appear that a number of factions are not just jockeying for position, but are attacking each other. There are reports indicating that Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is going after Shoigu, head of the military. If it is indeed a fight between them, I might put $10 on Shoigu given his experience with infighting. Where it gets interesting is with the rumors that Kadyrov is joining in to go after Shoigu. For a number of reasons, Kadyrov is the king keeper or king maker in Russia right now. If he joins in, my money is no longer on Shoigu to win.

Second, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t matter. People can riot and hang Putin in effigy in multiple cities in districts outside of Moscow, and it really won’t matter. The only city for which that does not hold true is St. Petersburg. What happens in St. Petersburg has a tendency to slide over into Moscow. It’s real only if it happens in Moscow.

Third, there are some very interesting, and extremely unconfirmed, rumors of various factions shifting positions (as it were) in Moscow. Are they looking to perhaps push things along, or just preparing for Vladimir to no longer be in power? And, yes, Vladimir’s position is no longer stable even with the lies, propaganda, outside troops, and cultural issues.

Fourth, this brings us to the situation on the ground in the Ukraine. The Russians flat out have been humiliated, and it’s not over yet. Even with throwing conscripts into the cauldron (without training or even working gear in some cases), odds are good the Russians are going to get pounded. Which actually puts things back to where they were early on with the Russians limited to trying to terrorize the civilian population. Keep in mind, they see this as a legitimate target, because you either are a good Russian at heart pining to be a part of Russkiy Mir, or you are a Nazi who deserves to be raped/tortured/maimed/killed/etc. Obviously, since they have resisted the heroic Russian army of liberation…

Fifth, Vladimir is going full-Hitler. He is taking over more and more of the decision making, and otherwise trying to run everything. Didn’t work for Hitler, won’t work for him. There are already signs of some extremely poor decisions being made, including using up extremely limited stockpiles of precision weapons on non-precision targets (Xi smiles). I really hope anyone who reads me is also reading the ISW, Stephen Green, and others for combat and other analysis, and Kamil Galeev for his insights on Russian culture, history, and more.

There is more, of course, but those are the high notes, which bring me to my trying to read the tea leaves. Here we go.

Based on his latest statement, Vladimir appears to actually be trying to slow walk both an escalation to nuclear or special weapons, and to temper the expectations of his hardline followers. Part of this could be from a small bit of reality about his military breaking into the bubble in which he and so many of the oligarchia live, but I wouldn’t count on it. I suspect it is more from pressure from fellow oligarchs who realize a nuclear war would be bad for business and that while they don’t mind others dying for the Rodina, they object to the fact that they would die.

The layered response discussed means, however, that those evil Ukrainian civilians are going to get what he thinks they deserve as often as possible. Setbacks, defeats, anything happening on territory that he even faintly imagines might have belonged to Russia at some time in another reality means attacks on civilian targets.

As he steps up the escalation, however, it also increases the chances that we might see the use of non-nuclear special weapons. For all that the U.S. has equated use of such as being the same as the use of a nuke, reality is that we have never responded as such when they have been used previously. So, Vladimir is quite likely to consider such use on that basis, and to react badly if we do suddenly decide to enforce our convention. He will pitch a public tantrum no matter what, that’s a given.

Vladimir could decide to do a demonstration, as it were. Sal, aka CDR Salamander, has a very interesting take on such. Back in the days of extensive testing of systems and weapons, the goal (on our side) was to have at least 80 percent of the systems and weapons work if the button(s) were pushed. Right now, I’m wondering if even 20 percent would work on any side. No, I really don’t want to find out but Sal’s take is a good one.

There have been a number of highly-realistic wargames done where a tactical nuke was used. I would feel much better if anyone could name one where it did not end up going strategic. Yes, a number of limited scenarios (and extremely unrealistic larger games) have avoided it. Just not the ones based on reality. With calm, competent, stable, and intelligent leadership, I think it can be avoided. With the Regency, Vladimir, Xi, Macaroon, et al, well, we may be having to pin our hope on ol’ 20 percent (or less).

As scary as that is, let me give you something else to think about. By luck we avoid the use of a nuclear weapon by anyone for any reason. The fact is, we can’t give in to such blackmail, otherwise the use of such will never end. Sanity would be for everyone to realize that, and step back. Yet, Vladimir is facing a humiliating defeat not just for himself, but for the dream of Russkiy Mir. If he can’t have the Ukraine, no one will.

The last cruise missiles go in, carrying conventional warheads. They hit at every nuclear power plant in the Ukraine. The goal is not to hit the reactors themselves, but to take out power and control. The idea being to create a situation at each that makes Chernobyl look like nothing. Hit Chernobyl to damage the shield. Vladimir seems to have already hinted at this once, and it is not something I would put past him. Particularly since he’s been playing that very game at Zaporizhia for weeks now. In fact, I would expect a massive maskirova based on what he’s been doing there to go with it, to try to shift the blame elsewhere. How would we react to that?

What can we do? Two things. First, pray. I mean that very sincerely. Second, prepare. It’s going to be a long nasty winter around the world, no matter what happens, so if you haven’t gotten into practical preparedness now is a good time. If you aren’t familiar with preparedness or my version of practical preparedness, start here and work forward. While the potential number of disasters is infinity-minus-2, there are only three things that can be damaged and that makes planning and preparations much easier. Even if we avoid any form of nuclear incident in or because of the Ukraine, being prepared is likely to help make this winter easier.

Meantime, I don’t expect things to go ballistic in the next few hours. In fact, with what Vladimir said today, I see some breathing room as it were. Possibly several weeks worth. I think before we get to any form of go/nogo situation, we will see a number of things happen.

First, I expect to see Belarus invade the Ukraine along with Russian troops. This week or next week at the latest. Vladimir desperately needs that second front to draw troops away from the east and south. There are a number of reasons for Lukashenko to join in, including his own ambitions. Ed Morrissey has his take up at Hot Air. I will note that Lukashenko has cultivated a bumbling, country bumpkin image with Russian media and leadership, and an amazing number of them seem to be stupid enough to buy it. He’s used that image to stick a finger in Vladimir’s eye before and get away with it. He’s joining in, but don’t expect slavish devotion as his Number 1 is not Vladimir or his goals. Oh, and I think his birthday gift of a tractor to Vladimir was very well played. ISW does not agree with me on this, and I hope they are right and I’m wrong.

Second, I expect to see Russia lose more ground in the east and south. How much is going to be the question. Vladimir will be looking for any chance to claim that something was done on Russian territory so he can hurt more civilians, so expect to see the Ukrainians fight smart.

Third, I would expect to see MOPP gear show up for Russian/Wagner troops. Open question for any OSINT who read this: is anyone seeing any MOPP gear with any Russian troops anywhere? Heck, is anyone seeing any MOPP gear anywhere? Right now, the Russians don’t seem to be able to supply uniforms, cold or wet weather gear, or much of anything else. Even with the Russian attitude towards the life of the troops (eh, we can get more), you are likely to get squeamish commanders who are going to balk at using any special weapon if it’s going to kill more of their troops than the enemy. So, I would expect to see at least some attempt to protect the Russian troops first.

Fourth, I would expect to see several levels of escalation first. After all, Vladimir wants to make the case that he tried everything else first. That it also allows him to study the board and see if his threats are having the intended effect is important too.

So, no boom today. Not seeing it tomorrow either. The Day After? We will see.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

PayPal

Yes, PayPal is gone and I am in search of another service for donations. I want one that actually is focused on providing service, not servicing people with politics and totalitarianism. As soon as I find such, I will put a link up in The Bard’s Jar.

I suppose it could be argued that deliberation and patience are in order, given that using PayPal has helped me survive financially after getting hit by lightning. Many of you have shown me the extraordinary kindness of sending me gifts via PayPal that have allowed me to eat, pay bills, move my hosting, and more. I am now limited to just the fundraiser, until I can find a replacement. So be it. I would rather risk missing a bill than to continue to use them. I would rather live in my car under an underpass somewhere than give those authoritarian goons a single dime more.

By the way, if you sincerely believe the statement they have issued walking back their draconian policy: Do I Have A Deal For You! Bridge. Guaranteed moneymaker. Cash Only.

The only reason they have backed down is the lights being shined on them and the number of people closing their accounts. More need to cancel. More lights need to be shined. Because unless that happens, anyone want to start a pool on how long it is before they try this crap again? Social credit systems are all the rage in China and with the WEF crowd, but have place in a free society. Anyone pushing such is in desperate need of a tar and feather spa day.

And, that is exactly what PayPal was doing: trying to bring a social credit system to the United States. I’m doing what I can by closing my account, a process they apparently have decided to make as difficult as they can. I hope others join me, as until PayPal is in the grave with a wooden stake through it’s heart and a sharp blade over its neck like that “vampire” corpse they just found in Europe, the danger remains. As I said above, they will try this crap again.

So, let them know what you think with your wallet. Take your business elsewhere. Shine a light and be sure to note the regulatory environment they have. The more of us who do that, the better. For it is time to raze and salt the ground so they nor anyone else is foolish enough to try to do this ever again.

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Well, Shit

NOTE: Welcome Instapundit Readers and others. Apologies for the slow loading and such, but “new” host has issues too. As fast as I can come up with an additional $175, am switching to a different provider. And, yes, plan to get my money back from the “new” provider and use it to upgrade the new new provider. Thank you for your patience, and your gifts!

Just finished watching Vladimir’s rambling speech. A few things, other than rambling and what appear to be some interesting word choices/phrasing, pop out immediately.

First, it was a recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir, how everyone has been mean to Russia, done it bad, and otherwise behaved like a guy in a Crystal Gayle song towards the Rodina throughout its history. For all that the US was the focus of his bitching, Great Britain comes in for a lot of oblique criticism too. In fact, it might could be argued that more was directed at them than most may realize — it depends on how well one knows Russian history and Russian culture.

Two, it was — as expected — staking a position that any attempt to liberate/assault/etc. any of the territories they were claiming was an attack on Russia. That any attack on Russia would be responded to with overwhelming force including special weapons/nuclear weapons at need. I really want to go back and listen to him on this point, as I think the translation may have missed a bit. Again, as with another recent statement, it seemed to push special (chemical) ahead of nuclear but with some of the rambling…

Three, he pretty much accused the US of attacking the Nordstream pipelines, and in the process effectively denied that Russia had deliberately sabotaged them. Given some interesting info that is coming out from those knowledgeable, one has to wonder if Russian incompetence may have resulted in the explosions, which makes the wording used by Vladimir potentially very interesting.

Four, his attack on Western values including references to transitioning children and other hot-button topics in the West (including family values which may have included an indirect swipe at the new Italian PM) was IMO a touch of brilliance that reflects the old Vladimir rather than the current. I expect to see any attempt to go after such efforts in the West now resulting in accusations of being a Russian stooge/proxy/agent/etc. Yet more Gramscian damage to the West. Well played.

Five, I really want to go back and re-listen to his words and phrasing, but I believe Vladimir may have just repudiated every arms treaty, strategic or otherwise, in effect. That Russia would not be bound by efforts to reduce her defense by other powers who were already in violation of said treaties and using them to keep the Rodina down. Huge, and I suspect this is going to get overlooked in the short term. Oh, it was also the reason for my “Oh. Shit.” twitter post.

Six, in his rambling, Vladimir made plain that Russia was great; Russian culture was far superior to Western (or Eastern) culture; Russia would resume its proper place on the world stage; and that all true Russian people would flock to Russia’s banner. Again, Russkiy Mir.

The stage is set. Now, we wait to see what happens.

For those interested, the best way to prevent the use of nukes and escalation is to emphasize preparedness. Not on the Federal level, but to show that State and local governments have taken steps to ensure continuity of government and services. That individuals have taken steps and are prepared to deal with what comes. That works, and yes there are substantive reasons for saying this. Along with other preparations, a remarkable amount of deterence can be achieved.

Final note: cut the sound off and watch him. In fact, do it several times and each time focus on a different area: head, right arm, left arm, torso, feet. Then, watch the reactions in the audience. Some of them are quite interesting. Then, cut the sound on and listen just to him, no translators or talking heads, while watching him and the audience. Yes, I’m thinking there are some things you might should be catching. Far more than just the rambling and stumbling.

While we wait, prepare. Now’s the time, make the most of it.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness: BugOut!

In the ideal situation, before projection onto the wall of Plato’s cave, we would all live in areas removed from potential disturbance. Our homes would be our castles ready to stand against all of nature and man at need. All our preparations would be at hand, our stocks updated as we used things in day-to-day life, and we would have not a care in the world.

For all that I find it pretty good, and in fact in some ways much better than deserved, the fact is that life is not ideal. Storms can and will hit. The earth will rock upon occasion (even in areas not normally known for that). Trains can and will derail, even as trucks will crash. Politicians will do stupid things and we bear the brunt of it.

The net result is that you need to be prepared to do the bugout boogie at need. The enemy may be in greater numbers than expected; the water is coming in higher than expected; the train that derailed not far from your home was carrying nasty stuff; and, any number of other things make your best option that of leaving your well-prepared abode.

You really should have bugout bags ready to go, though few seem to truly do so. Even my own bugout bags right now could stand some updating, I admit. These bags should have everything you need to get by for a while: clothing, gear, supplies, and yes weapons. At least two of my bags are packed so I can literally sweep my medicines and supplements into one of them, get one or both to the car, and take off in about five minutes time. Give me ten minutes, and I’m even better off.

Your main (and any secondary) bugout bags should all have copies (in waterproof containers) of your driver’s license, important papers, etc. These need to be kept updated (I need to check mine as my medical has oddly updated a few times since getting hit by lightning). I also recommend keeping originals on you, again in waterproof wrappings.

Any cash is distributed and hidden, and where I can I have some redundancy in my packing. I include a fair bit of camping gear in my bugout prep: shelters can be interesting and in some cases governments have taken/tried to take food and more away from those coming in. There may not be shelters set up for the emergency, and motels may or may not be an option. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Thus, I have my camping gear either ready to go or in some cases parts of it in the car already.

Things, generally, are not worth your life. If there is time and if there is room, I would grab a photo album or two, and any other small extremely sentimental items and take with me. They would also be one of the first things I leave behind if I have to stage down.

Staging is the part of bugout that far too many seem to miss. As I’ve noted before, I want to start out motorized if it all possible. That said, you may find roads blocked or impassable, something may happen to the vehicle, etc. The best staging I’ve ever heard about (think I’ve discussed this before) involved an RV towing a car that had off road motorcycles on a trailer behind it. There were bicycles attached to the RV as well. The idea was to take the RV as far as possible (hopefully all the way to safety). If there were issues, drop to the car and tow the motorcycles, bicycles, and max supplies. Car can’t get anywhere, use the motorcycles and have one of them tow the trailer with the bikes and other supplies pulled from the RV. If problems came up with the motorcycles, drop to the bikes. Last resort is always shanks mare.

The thing is, every time you stage down, you are losing mobility and supplies. You plan for it, but you also try to keep from having to stage down if at all possible. Keep the maximum options open to you.

Watching Ian, and thinking about a couple of situations here, I need to step up my own bugout plans. While the ideal is to stay in place, that may not be an option in any number of circumstances. So, I’m going to be working on that as I can in the coming days. The last thing you want to be doing is trying to prepare to bugout as the disaster is hitting.

Just a quick thought for the morning.

BTW, before I forget: kudos to the disaster preparedness people in Florida! From the reports I’m getting the county offices really hit the ground running, did what they could, asked for what they needed, pre-positioned what they could, and otherwise were as set as they could be for Ian. In turn, the state-level operations responded to requests quickly, efficiently, and otherwise made sure yet more people and supplies were in pre-po for the aftermath. Real problem is going to be that you can’t plan for everything, and it is quite likely some who should have bugged out didn’t for any number of reasons. One being economics and just not even able to afford the gas to get out. Meantime, with what I have right now, it looks like one heck of an effort led by the counties — which is how it should be done. Pay attention, as good or bad there are going to be a LOT of lessons for learning courtesy of Ian.

*****

Ian

If you were told to evacuate, I hope you did. Being prepared to bugout is a cornerstone of practical preparedness. In this case, a cornerstone of being smart enough to live.

For those who did not face evacuation, but will be riding it out, my prayers are out for you. May your preparations be good, tasty, and secure.

Just please take care of yourselves, as those I follow who are experts are all saying it is going to be a bad one. When all of them agree on anything, I pay attention. I hope you have done so as well.

Hang in, hang on, and God bless!

*****

Winter Is Coming

I want to write more, but between Nexcess telling me I’m out of resources and they will make me pay, pay, pay (all from two links by Instapundit) and some housework being done, writing may be a bit sparse. On the former, feel free to hit the tip jar as someone has pointed me in an interesting direction for hosting, and given who they work with… Seriously, as soon as I have the money I’m outa here. Literally and figuratively.

The housework is something else. Long story short, a couple of years ago my landlord bought a duplex in a historical area from a relative, without getting an inspection. My thoughts on that and some of the issues that have cropped up are why you ALWAYS get an inspection. While not on the level of some of the other $$$ issues, the windows were all original to the house, which was built either in the late 1930s or 40s.

The upstairs windows on our side were replaced last year. The basement windows have been interesting. I’m sure up until the 1960s they could be opened. By the time he bought the house, they had not been capable of being opened (as in rusted shut) for decades. Given that the windows were one of my ways out in case of fire, I hid a sledge hammer near one of them and was prepared to take it out at need. Before the lightning strike and all with it, bust out, push my armor duffle through to take out any remaining glass or other, then go out. May be getting back to the point I can lift and shove the duffle through at need.

After some discussion, we now have new windows in my bedroom (installed yesterday) and the bathroom (installed a week or so ago). Attractive glass block inserts with a central sealable vent for airflow (something long desired for my room). Yes, in an emergency my plan is still to take them out at need, even though it may take a bit more effort. Meantime, no more drafts, water, and other delights coming in through the windows. Suspect many things will be improved as a result.

Only problem is, yesterday was my room, where I work. I tried working upstairs, but for a number of reasons that did not work out well. I’ve also now got to spend several hours cleaning as there is concrete/masonry dust everywhere in my room. Thick layer of such. Really hoping no asbestos or lead in the dust.

Today, the last window on this side is getting replaced. Not far outside the door to my room. Removal involves reciprocating saws, grinders, and more. Not as worried about the dust per se, but it is going to be interesting. Thinking I may go run some errands, and perhaps take my time on them. Came across a Peruvian chicken recipe that sounds wonderful, may see about finding some of the ingredients for it, since only one is truly exotic. Or at least pricing the ingredients.

Meantime, prepare. Stock up as it will be needed no matter what. If you can, stock up a bit on the things imported, like coffee, tea, cocoa, etc. Plastic, tarps, and tape are not a bad idea, particularly if you live close to, or downwind from, a potential target. Sincerely hoping we never need that preparation for that purpose, but one of the best deterrents is preparedness. Once I no longer have to fear a link from Insty costing me an unexpected $100 or more, need to get into that discussion.

More soon.

*****

Nuclear 201: Fair Question

I think today will wrap up the Nuclear 201 series. I think I’m going to be concentrating more on coverage of current events and preparedness in the coming days. For today, I think I will address a valid and fair question: What are you going to do if things go nuclear?

My honest answer: it depends. Most of it depends on time, and exactly what happens. It may be that the use of chemical or nuclear weapons does not tip over to strategic, though I’m sure not going to bet that way. Pray for it, yes. Count on it, no.

If at all possible, I’m going to do the bugout boogie. If there is time I will have a trailer hitch put on my car, buy/rent/other a trailer, load up with essentials and gear, and head out. Heck, if worse comes to worse, I will infantry engineer a hitch and get a trailer. If things work out really well, I’m headed to visit a friend well out of blast range who lives in the country. If things are tight, I’m going to be just headed out and trying to clear various zones and potential areas of fallout. The further I can get past 465 the better. Planning to take back roads/alleys/yards as main streets/highways are likely to be gridlocked.

If for some reason I can’t do the bugout boogie, I’m going to dig in. If there is time, I’m getting sandbags from the local home & garden store and covering the basement windows all around. If not, try to improvise. If things get grim, I’m cutting off the main power breaker and all other breakers, unplugging all electronics/appliances, dropping my essential electronics in a special container in the basement (and if possible covering it with sandbags/other), and doing anything else I can to mitigate EMP damage. Transmission wires are great for picking up EMP, so by popping your main and breakers, then unplugging things, you may get lucky and minimize damage.

The special container may or may not work to shield, but is worth a try. In it will be my laptop, cell phone, and the multi-power multi-band emergency radio at a minimum. Do I wish I had the super radio with short wave as well? Yep, and if anyone wants to buy it for me and ship it, sing out. 🙂 Things may go down here, but they may bounce back and other areas could get lucky. Have the electronics for when you can use them (and recharge them). If I had a geiger counter and such, they would be in there as well, save for one dosimeter on me. Again, hit the tip jar or sing out if you’d like me to get that gear. 🙂

Then, if time allows, I’m kitting up and armoring up as best I can. If not, headed into things as is. There’s a couple of places where I can get that should stay reasonably protected if the house comes down. Of equal importance, if it does, I’ve got a good chance (and tools already laid in) to try to get out before the fires come. Where I am is (hopefully) well outside the main blast radius but is within the zone for potential fires/firestorm. Again, why I want to be on the other side of 465. Get into the zone, hunker down, and hope the light show is cancelled.

If not and I get to experience a different version of God’s own flashbulb (the lightning hit counts as one type of flash bulb as well as a stun gun in my book), it depend on how bad things get. Best case is that we have broken windows upstairs, some damage to the house and roof but nothing too extensive and the fires don’t reach us. In that case, plastic, tarp, tape, nail, etc. and try to check on radiation/fallout. Get a safe room/area set up and prepare to hunker down for a couple of weeks.

If the fires head our way, see if any car works, get one or more going, load up with gear and supplies, and try to get beyond 465 and to a relatively safe area. If not, ruck up, start walking, and try to clear 465 as fast as possible and look for travel options other than shank’s mare. Since I’ve got a good idea of local winds and when fallout will start to get bad, you can bet I’m headed away from the anticipated worst and keeping an eye out for a good safe place where I/we can hunker down at need.

If this were not a target area, my preference would be to stay despite a not-good security situation (no town/city, esp. larger city, is going to be a good security situation). I’m close to a major hospital and there are other resources nearby. Plus, here I have access to food, water, and the other joys of preparedness. Any form of bugout drops the amount of resources available (hence trailer if possible). That said, if it comes down to survival opportunities versus dying, life wins. Keep that in mind and we do need to talk staging soon. Also, the advantage to having friends along the way.

That’s the short and sweet for today. Good question, and the best answer I can give under the circumstances. We are going to talk preparedness soon, and as with all of it, hope we never truly need it.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 201: Fallout

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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Nuclear 201: Fallout

There is fallout, and then there is FALLOUT. Thing is, you can have fallout without nukes going off. You not only have dirty bombs, but you can have incidents at places with nuclear materials — including nuclear power plants.

In light of Vladimir’s speech last night/this morning, and a very clear threat to ALL nuclear reactors in the Ukraine, it is time to talk of cabbages who want to be kings, and fallout and other things. Make no mistake, while Vladimir was careful to discuss it as if the Ukrainians or others shelled the reactor/reactors and to say it was a threat against Russia, it was a threat to the Ukraine and the West. If Vladimir can’t have what he wants, no one will have it. Message received loud and clear Vladimir.

So, be it a bomb, a dirty bomb, an accident at a facility with nuclear materials, or an “accident” at a facility with nuclear materials, fallout can be a nasty thing. Honestly, in some respects, you are better off with a nuclear bomb exploding. Yes, it can and will produce fallout; however, a fair bit of that fallout is going to be short-lived. When you have a dirty bomb, it depends on what material the terrorists (and if they are using a dirty bomb, they are, IMO a terrorist even if in uniform or service to a government) can get their hands on but odds are it’s going to be around a while.

Then you have nuclear power reactors, most of which are first generation tech at heart (really may need to do a post on nuclear power reactors and what can be done with second- and third-generation tech and the much improved safety they offer). To be honest, to have an accident even with first-gen tech takes some effort. If you look at Chernobyl and other incidents, most of them took some effort. In fact, people had to fuck up not only by the numbers, but work hard at it. Fukushima took an earthquake, tsunami, and some bad decisions/actions along the way, and even then wasn’t all that bad. Could have been a LOT worse if not for things done right from the start. If you can find it, Subsunk and I did a series of posts on Fukushima at Blackfive that I sadly can’t find a link to right now. Short version: nuclear power is one of the safest and most efficient options out there, and it’s greener than green. Suck it up, deal with it, and let’s get new advanced design plants built.

Deliberately targeting a nuclear power plant with artillery, bombs, etc. counts in my book as working at it. While I’m sure a direct hit on a reactor that spreads stuff around would be touted as a victory, the odds are that what they would like to do is take out the cooling system so that you have a meltdown situation, which would send lots of interesting stuff into the air and be hard to moderate and/or contain.

And, therein, lies the fun joys of fallout. If it all stayed in place, you could contain and deal with it. Yes, there are ways to deal with it including chemical reactions that can take at least some nasty elements and greatly reduce the half life (see Prussian Blue and caesium-137). But, by terrorism or other, the problem with fallout is that it becomes airborne. Depending on circumstances, it can rise high into the atmosphere and literally travel around the world and over time it falls out, down, and mostly adds a miniscule amount to the local background count.

We’ve already talked a bit about dealing with fallout from a nuclear blast, but some of it needs to be repeated.

The best way to deal with fallout is to avoid it. If you can, leave and make sure you are headed away from the prevailing winds. Part of your basic preparedness should include a knowledge of both the prevailing local winds year round (comes in handy for tree management as well as people doing stupid things) and potential sources of fallout, chemicals, smoke, etc. As you are leaving, even if things seem clear, cover, cover, cover. Wear a mask, wear layers, and make the outer waterproof if possible as it makes decon easier.

Departure not an option for whatever reason? Be prepared. If you have a fireplace and chimney, you need to be prepared to drop something over the top of the chimney that will come down a bit so as to prevent fallout (or chemicals, smoke, etc.) from coming inside. Need to be prepared to do that with any open vents or other delights. Heard tell of a person who had some very large tarps, lots of tape, and a plan to cover his house with the tarps like a huge tent to help send any fallout away from the house and foundations. If you have enough time, it’s an idea.

Rolls of plastic come in handy at a time like this, as you can cover the ceiling, walls, or even floor to help prevent anything that does get in from getting to you. Pick an interior room or rooms, cover, tape, leave a means of getting filtered air in so you don’t suffocate, and you are good. If you hang sheets on top of the plastic, it adds a filter layer that may help. Also, remember the discussion about books and bookcases, other uses for pallets, and everything you can to isolate.

The trick is, you want to do all you can to keep fallout (or other) not only away from you, but out of you. While certain forms will go in and pass through the body, other’s wont. Particles can get into your lungs and stay. Some can chemically bind with you. In which case, you have ionizing radiation from which you can’t get away. It’s why potassium iodide pills are not a bad thing to keep around (sadly, I’m allergic to iodine) as it can prevent radioactive iodine from building up in the body. While there are treatments for many of the things that can get into your body, the most effective treatment is to avoid needing treatment to start with.

This is one of the few times I would recommend having a good gas mask. If you don’t have one, get a respirator at the hardware store. Can’t go that route? A standard N-95 mask will work, but you are going to be better off going for an R-95 (or 99) mask and/or a -95/99 mask with activated carbon in it. In an emergency, two layers of good t-shirt is better than nothing. Throw in a broad floppy hat (with clear plastic hanging down all around past your chin), rain gear with a hood under the hat and over layers of clothing, and you are set to do the bugout boogie. The key is to keep particles from getting into your nose, eyes, or mouth.

Then, stay high if at all possible. Fallout falls, and once it hits the ground it is likely to flow with any water and make it’s way into low-lying areas. This is where geiger counters and dosimeters come in handy. Again, I don’t recommend a lot of specialty equipment be bought as a part of preparedness, but I do recommend a gas mask or industrial respirator, R/N-95/99 masks, and a geiger counter — especially with the world situation as it is today. Stuff happens, and most of this gear can do for a variety of situations besides nuclear.

If you live in the Ukraine and/or are near or downwind of a Ukrainian nuclear plant, my advice is to be prepared to cover up and do the bugout boogie. Have your essential documents, cash, etc. ready to go. Forget things, most of them can be replaced.

If you are not immediately downwind, shelter and filter. Keep an eye on the local levels and hope you have honest types in emergency management who will give you good info and do right by you. Be prepared to boogie if the situation changes.

If you are in central or northern Europe and/or Scandinavia, shelter and filter as needed. With luck, the impact could be low outside of the immediate area(s). Outside of dealing with airborne particles, real key is going to be any tendency for fallout to collect and create a hotspot or two. Yes, it is going to get into the environment and to some extent into the food chain (see Chernobyl, and also keep in mind the worst predictions about all the fallout from that did not come true).

Outside those areas, yes the radiation is going to be detectable but it is not likely to present any real hazard. If Vladimir carries through on his threat — and make no mistake that is exactly what it was — may the worst of it blow into the Rodina and be the gift that keeps on giving to those who created the situation.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

Quick Initial Thoughts On Vladimir’s Speech

I may do a longer take later, but for now, some quick thoughts on Vladimir’s mobilization speech.

First, the delay of the speech is weird and a story unto itself. Speaks to a number of things going on internally.

Second, keep in mind that most of the speech was for internal consumption, which tends to confuse Western media and lead to some rather interesting takes.

It was a chance to lay out what and why to the public. You had the standard threats to the sacred soil of Mother Russia, you had the justifications of the special military operation in context of Russkiy Mir and more, and how the West is being mean and threatening Russia. How dare the Ukraine and the West fight back!

There was, of course, the announcement of a military mobilization, that any threat to the soil of Russia would be met with force and in context of that the idea of the use of special weapons was raised as was the specific use of nuclear weapons given Western threats to nuke Moscow. Vladimir also stated that referendums to join Russia by the occupied territories (and boy did he make a huge grab attempt on what he considers occupied!) would be honored.

Some quick take-aways. Any real impact of the 300,000 called up is at least six months to a year off. It’s going to take that long (or longer given how the system is busted and basic supplies appear to be short) to get them into the system and up to a useful standard — provided they aren’t treated like the conscripts from the occupied areas and tossed into the fray with little/no training or supplies. Unconfirmed reports that flights out of Russia are full with sudden reservations by males of an age to be called up.

Take by some here that they will use this to pull in experienced NCOs ignores the fact that they have none by our standards. Russia follows the Soviet model, where enlisted were short-termers who may not have really wanted to be there and were treated as scum and idiots by many. Officers were in for longer, presumed to be more educated, and frankly did the tasks NCOs would do in our system. Keep in mind LTs pull maintenance with enlisted (mostly) providing muscle at need.

I strongly suspect most of the 300k will come from east of the Urals. For a number of reasons, Vladimir and company do not want to stir things up around Moscow or St. Petersburg. They also don’t want any large masses of troops, particularly those called up or conscripted, anywhere near Moscow for obvious reasons.

More interesting in the order itself are the penalties on businesses that refuse defense contracts or to produce defense materials on demand. You can refuse once, but not twice. Penalties not directly specified but implied draconian for the business and those running it.

Also, keep an eye on the discussions that have been/are being held in Moscow with Belarus. Vladimir desperately needs Belarus troops as well as Russian to attack the Ukraine from Belarus. Even the threat of such would hold back troops that otherwise could be used in any upcoming offensives in the East/South by the Ukraine.

The emphasis on the Motherland and what I term sacred soil was very interesting especially in light of the discussion on special, not just nuclear, weapons. Some of the threats of nuclear were expected and frankly a yawn as it was a predictable attempt to bully the West into accepting Russia trying to claim a huge chunk of the Ukraine (apparently including “occupied” territory it no longer occupies). However, mixed in that was a very clear thread of any attack on or over Russian territory could/would result in the use of special weapons and all possible force.

That may be pure bluff or it may not. It is clearly intended to prevent the Ukraine from cutting across Russian territory to cut off and retake parts of the East and South. As well as to stop shelling and other attacks on bases, depots, etc. within Russia. Those clearly have hurt, and it showed in the speech.

One thing I’m finding interesting is that it is still a special military operation, and Vladimir is making no effort to use strategic bombing or even fully use the Air Force, which says some very interesting things. Part is internal politics and part is clearly something else. Just what that is, is the question of the moment.

There’s more, but maybe later. The final thing I will suggest is to look at the speech on its own, without newsies yammering or translators translating. Things are off. Delivery, phraseology, and even how he holds himself. Watch at least the critical portions closely and several times, and focus on different areas each time. This should have been a canned, perfect speech. It isn’t. Not sure what that means, but it is interesting to note. I could nit-pick the staging, but those are mostly cultural issues and it was tuned to an internal, not external, audience.

Hang on, things could get very interesting here soon in a variety of ways.

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Couple Of Quick Thoughts

Uh Oh

Into The Light: Mikhail Gorbachev

*****

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear war! Invasion! Tornados! Earthquakes! Floods! One of Vladimir’s farts being mistaken as the start of a chemical warfare attack!

Honestly, it really doesn’t matter. The number of disasters that can befall us is an infinity-minus-one situation. There are that many potential disasters out there, though since SMOD has repeatedly failed of it’s campaign promises I’m starting to rule it out (infinity-minus-two?).

What matters is that no matter the cause, there are only three things that can be harmed: people, places, and things. Within that, there are basically only three types of damage to each. The only thing that a nuclear attack does is add radiation to the mix even though it increases blast damage, risk of catastrophic fires, etc. Guess what, you are going to have the latter part in conventional operations (Dresden anyone?).

Heck, come to think of it, it doesn’t have to be an exchange of atomic weapons that creates the problems. Let’s say that instead of any sort of leader who wants to put his country ahead, Vladimir truly is the pissy little bitch his enemies claim he is. In which case he engineers the worst possible “melt down” at the largest nuclear plant in Europe just because he suffered a military defeat.

In a nuclear event, you are going to have the same decision matrices: stay/go, go/where, how/why. The complicating factor will be the ionizing radiation.

This is one of the few times where I think purchasing specialized gear is warranted. In fact, what I would regard as basics are some form of geiger counter and some dosimeters. If you have them, it’s going to make a lot of decisions easier, and possibly smarter (i.e. move away from the worst of the fallout, not accidentally into it). It’s also when full-face respirators or gas masks are going to come in handy.

The initial burst of radiation from the bomb? Best bet is to be below ground. Fact is, even in those zones of total de-struc-tion that people cry about, you are going to have survivors. Those below ground, in vaults, or just in well-built structures that provide protection. Long-term survival depends on being able to get out, and not having gotten what’s called an LD50 dose of ionizing radiation from the bomb, or pick up same from the fallout. Worse yet, you don’t want to breathe in that dust, as then it’s inside you emitting.

Push comes to shove, even a couple of layers of good t-shirt are better than nothing. Cover your mouth and nose, then work to get out. If you can get layers on, do so and cover as much of your body as you can in multiple layers. Remember, alpha and beta are stopped/reduced by those layers. Also, more importantly, that dust and other particles that land on you, you can get rid of up to 90 percent of it simply by taking off the outer layer later. Layer up, get out, and head away from whichever way the wind is blowing, as where it is blowing is going to be hot. If you can find shelter in a safe location, do so.

If you are outside of the impact zone, what you do is going to be based on a number of factors. If the structure you are in is not damaged, or not heavily damaged, unless you are directly under the path of the fallout, stay put may be the best option. Even if under, you may well be safer staying and waiting a few days. Again, stay/go is going to depend on the levels of radiation; your ability to shield against it and to filter out the fallout so that it doesn’t get in, and worse yet, into you. It’s going to depend on planning, luck, and a bit more.

If you have to go, the questions then become where, why, and how. In the 101-course, I talked a bit about options for staying, and for going. Maybe tomorrow we will get a bit deeper into that, but today I’m not feeling great and am going to call this a bit sooner than planned.

Oh, if the nuclear plant does melt down, the largest impacts will be on the Ukraine, Europe/Scandinavia, and Russia itself. The impact to the rest of the world will be measurable but despite a lot of fear-mongering to come, negligible.

Oh, and if anyone wants to buy me a geiger counter and some dosimeters, drop me a line. I don’t do Amazon for anything anymore, but might make an exception in this case.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation