Current Events – Page 29 – The Laughing Wolf

So You…

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Sorry for the delay in posting today, but I’ve been doing something so you don’t have to. In this case, I spent part of the morning listening to Vladimir’s speech at the Valdai Club conference. I wish I could have listened to all the Q&A as well, but hopefully got what I needed with what I could stick around for. Wondering just how many questions were planted.

I’m actually going to chew over what was said (and more importantly in at least one case, what was NOT said) a bit before commenting. It would be very easy to mistake the formal speech for banal and boring, but that misses the points of it. I will note that while Vladimir usually does have very good makeup, today’s was extremely well done.

There were a number of messages in the speech and Q&A. That’s one reason I want to think about things a bit and double-check if needed before saying anything. He may not be the master manipulator he once was, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still good. More soon.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

PayPal Update

Since first asking that the account be closed on the 9th, nada. Despite multiple requests, they keep saying that it can’t be closed because of an unspecified technical issue that affects myself and others. No word from them, no updates, nada.

So, this afternoon I went online to the State AG’s site and filed a formal complaint. As resolution, I want my account closed and the AG (and the SEC if needed) to be sure that this mysterious unspecified technical issue was not by any chance an effort to influence or mislead investors or others. Surely it is not, but better to check in an abundance of caution.

Nuclear Oz

Only this time, Toto wasn’t needed to draw back the curtain as the Russians never bothered to close it in the first place. Interesting being able to see the illusion they are trying to peddle (mostly to an internal audience, but also to idiots abroad) while watching the reality.

No, not really too concerned this morning about the reports from Russian MoD about the readiness of their CBRN units. Nor am I too surprised at the Sunday morning talk show push (in Russia) or the calls by Shoigu to various leaders around the world. And I’m definitely not surprised by the groundwork for false-flag operations being laid.

First, remember that we are supposedly in the middle of their annual nuclear preparedness exercise. If so, no surprise that the cream of the crop of the CBRN units are ready to put on a pretty picture. Real question is if it is a picture of reality or just another Potemkin Village. There are reports (and conjecture) out there that their true readiness for such is on par with their uniforms and other equipment thanks to rampant corruption.

Before I forget, I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off at the stories coming out blaming all problems on theft by individual troops. This has been covered a bit before, but after Putin sacked his generals (all but two) and even some higher ranks and gave the positions to oligarchia to loot, things got so bad that small units and even individuals did indeed start stealing equipment and such simply to be able to eat. Want to know if a story on this is out of the Kremlin directly or indirectly? If it focuses on the individual troops stealing, and ignores the higher-level corruption, it’s a Kremlin production no matter the masthead.

Second, the push on the false-flag/maskirova items, along with all the phone calls, is fairly simple. I agree with the ISW that a lot of it is intended to slow down or stop deliveries and other support to the Ukraine. If the Ukraine can be isolated to any degree, it will help Russian efforts. If it works to any degree, expect to see a lot more of it. That said, they truly are trying to set the stage, particularly to the internal audience (and the brain dead external) that it was all the dastardly Ukrainian Nazi Scumbags and not the sweet and innocent Russian troops and leadership. Cough.

For reasons I won’t fully go into at this time, I remain concerned that if things don’t go well, Vladimir will go after every nuclear plant in the Ukraine in an attempt to damage the country and destroy it by other means. Again, they may attempt some maskirova and engage in false-flag operations, but there are those in Russia who feel that if they can’t seize the Ukraine, then no one — especially the Ukrainians — should be allowed to keep it either.

Now, in regards the list of false-flag/maskirova, one thing to keep in mind, this isn’t the first time they’ve done this. Syria is but one example. If you have the time and patience, and go back into the Cold War, the same was done at different times (usually a time of tensions) so that if there was a war, they would already have the pretexts in place for escalation.

So, I find things concerning, but nothing more than that at this time. In fact, some of it is sadly predictable. There are some things I am going to watch for, and if I do see them, then I will be worried. Until then, simply vigilant.

For those on Twitter, I am on there as LaughingWolfOne and if you are looking for good sources of information, try my Intel list. There are a couple on there that I would highly recommend, as while not 100 percent right (no one is) they have a better track record than several of the three-letter and related.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

PayPal And Donation Update

For the record, PayPal still hasn’t cancelled my account. They are still claiming that a ‘technical issue’ is preventing them from closing a number of accounts including mine.

Yes, it has been a hit taking them off here. There has been a significant drop in donations, the gifts that keep me going and will hopefully get me on out to the SW here soon. So much so I’m in a bit of a bind.

So, I’m in the process of jumping through the hoops to add GabPay as an option, and am exploring others. Any suggestions for a good alternative that isn’t going to play woke games?

*****

Conventions, Conventions

Today brings us a guest post by Romulus Wolf, looking at the confusion between the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and the confusion over which treaties to which we (United States) are signatories. It does make a difference, especially with so many, ah, enthusiastic voices this, that, and the other to be a war crime. So, enjoy the food for thought brought to you by our much appreciated guest author.

The Hague and Geneva Conventions, universally agreed upon treaties that govern much of the laws of war… Well, not so much, at least where “Universally agreed upon” is concerned.

Ratification of individual provisions is often spottier than one might expect.
And not always in the ways one might expect either. After all, it’s one thing for the landlocked nation of Chad to simply not bother to enter into 1907 Hague Convention VII. Chances are that they’re not going to be converting many merchant ships into warships. It’s another thing entirely when a major naval power not only doesn’t ratify, but actively objects to that particular convention, on the grounds that t banning such conversions would put something of a crimp in their ability to flood the seas with (legally authorized) commerce raiders1. For the moment, the US is the only serious naval power that ISN’T party. All because we took the possibility of using private warships seriously as late as 1907(2). While the US is the only major naval power of the 20^th and 21^st centuries to not be party, not all of our company among those not party to the treaty consists of landlocked nations such as Chad, Nepal, or Mongolia. We also share company with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of whom have at least some potential for benefit from merchant ship conversions. Not that party to this treaty ever stopped anyone, as both Britain and Germany used merchant ship conversions as Q-ships in WWI and WWII.

Ah, but surely, as I have been informed by countless internet denizens, the ban on “Dum-dum” or expanding bullets in the Geneva convention has universal, or near universal adoptions? Well, to start with, that one is part of the 1899 Hague Conventions, Declaration IV,3, and it turns out that the adoption of this one is even more spotty. The map isn’t too dissimilar here, albeit with the very notable disappearance of all of Latin America – with the exception of Mexico – from the list of parties. For the most part, concerns about expanding bullets would seem to be a Eurasian phenomenon. The Americas, Africa, and Oceania are mostly not party to this particular treaty. So, unless you’re getting involved in a land war in Eurasia, don’t expect the bullets to be non-expanding – or, more accurately, don’t expect the laws of war to be the reasoning for non-expanding bullets, as most nations use standard ball ammo, regardless of whether they’re party to the treaty or not3.

Now, the Geneva Conventions do have rather better adoption – everyone worth noting is party to Geneva Conventions I-IV, but the additional protocols do get interesting. Additional protocol I, which does a lot, supposedly relating to the protection of victims of international conflict, has very broad adoption, but the list of non-parties is certainly quite interesting. The US, Iran, and Pakistan have signed, but not ratified it (and signature without ratification has no force), and notable non members include Turkey, Israel, India, and Indonesia. It’s sometimes easy to speculate why a nation may or may not have entered into a treaty when the treaty only limits a single or small number of actions, but with the Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva convention, there is so much going on that figuring out anyone’s reasoning about why is probably fruitless – although it does bear noting that much of Additional Protocols I and II is duplicates of something already a part of the laws and customs of war, such as the prohibition on Perfidy (redundantly even within the protocol). The highlights of what Additional Protocol I does include bans on “works and installations containing dangerous forces”, a ban on “methods or means of warfare” that will cause “widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”, a ban on conscription of those under the age of 15, and ensuring that mercenaries are not given protection as legal combatants (note, the definition used is quite narrow – for example, citizens of belligerents, and residents of territories under the control of belligerents are not covered by the definition of mercenary, nor is anyone not taking direct part in hostilities).

Of course, if we leave the realm of the Hague and Geneva Conventions for other treaties, things tend to be even spottier. Earlier this year, there were people getting the vapors over the fact that both Ukraine and Russia were using cluster munitions – not in the specifics of how they were used, which absolutely could have been war crimes (and probably were in at least some instances), but the fact that they were used at all – when neither nation is party to the treaty. In fact, given how spotty adoption of that particular treaty is, chances are that if a war starts up somewhere, at least one of the belligerents will not be party to the treaty.

So, why are international treaties on the subject of war lacking in universal adoption? How can nations such as the US, opt out of major chunks of both the Hague and Geneva Conventions? Well, to oversimplify how international law works, think of nations as individuals with Dissociative identity disorder (and frequently a good chunk of the rest of the DSM for flavor), who can only be bound by rules that they agree to, and each individual personality gets a vote. You can persuade, guilt trip, bribe, and use economic coercion, but in the end, some treaties simply won’t get signed without violence, or a credible threat of it 4. They can also sign with reservations, . And even when everyone involved is party to the treaty consider that in 1914 Germany, Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey were party to 1899 Hague Declaration IV,II, which banned projectiles “the sole object of which is the diffusion of asphyxiating or deleterious gases”, and we all know how THAT turned out. So, for anything beyond the basics, and especially for more technical items, take claims of it being illegal under international law with a grain of salt, especially if they can’t tell you which treaty5 it came from, and definitely have low expectations where actually following the treaty is concerned.

Sources:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Treaty.xsp?documentId=D9E6B6264D7723C3C12563CD002D6CE4&action=openDocument

https://archive.ph/qDqpc

https://archive.ph/sIKqA

https://archive.ph/FxpDg

https://www.clusterconvention.org/

The Viper On The Table

I love this analogy by Wretchard! It is a marvelous turn of phrase that cuts to the essence of what the necromancer has thrown down before all. Not surprising that he did so, as you really should be reading him on twitter or other sites.

I must disagree with him, however, when he says nobody knows what to do with it. I touched on this a bit yesterday, but today I shall be blunt.

Everyone knows what must be done with the summoned abomination, and the necromancer who summoned it. They must be destroyed, and it must be done in a way that makes clear what will happen to any who try to summon it again.

The fear, by both those at the table in opposition to the necromancer and those he represents, and by those who increasingly realize that letting him represent them was a very bad mistake, is that the serpent might do more than quiver, and strike many before it is brought down. Even the necromancer is in fear of this right now, as his abomination threatens him as well.

The best thing would be for those who the necromancer alleges to represent to deal with him themselves. Such would be bloody and brutal, but contained if they destroy the necromancer and his own before he can unleash the beast. The next best, for actions by those around the table being threatened to eliminate both threats before they can react, is fraught with peril for all.

Yet, action must be taken. The threat is made and the beast summoned. If the Necromancer gets away with it, he will be emboldened and will start with it the next time he acts. Worse, other necromancers elsewhere will seize upon it, and the end results may well end up being worse than a nuclear war now. For it is a given that everyone and their brother will be developing or obtaining nuclear and other special weapons for use by their necromancers unless an example is made.

As I said, the best option is for his own people to deal with the Necromancer themselves, and ensure the serpent does not rise. Otherwise, there are few options and none will be palatable or pleasant. Choose wisely.

I also agree with Wretchard on this take, which is a bit of a play on Heinlein. Earth is the cradle of humanity, and it’s past time we left the cradle. For even if the proper example is made, there will be another necromancer somewhere (possibly many) who will be convinced they are smarter and faster, and will try this again. The serpent can take many forms, and that many of those can easily turn on their alleged masters and escape them to truly destroy the world is lost upon the mad.

It is only by spreading out in our own solar system and beyond that we can survive. The mad can still destroy many, but not all. Choose wisely.

For now, pray for that which is right to be. And prepare. More on that in a few.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

60-40

The question that continues to be asked is if we are going to have a nuclear war. The honest answer to that is: I don’t know. There are a large number of variables and based on where everything is this morning, I think the odds might be as high as 40-60 right now.

The real question people should be asking is if we will have a nuclear incident. I use that phrase deliberately, as there is an option on the table that is either being ignored or overlooked. Right now, I think the odds of a nuclear incident are 60-40.

There are a lot of factors in play. Here’s my take on just a few of them.

First, to say there are cracks emerging in Russia is an understatement. It would appear that a number of factions are not just jockeying for position, but are attacking each other. There are reports indicating that Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is going after Shoigu, head of the military. If it is indeed a fight between them, I might put $10 on Shoigu given his experience with infighting. Where it gets interesting is with the rumors that Kadyrov is joining in to go after Shoigu. For a number of reasons, Kadyrov is the king keeper or king maker in Russia right now. If he joins in, my money is no longer on Shoigu to win.

Second, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t matter. People can riot and hang Putin in effigy in multiple cities in districts outside of Moscow, and it really won’t matter. The only city for which that does not hold true is St. Petersburg. What happens in St. Petersburg has a tendency to slide over into Moscow. It’s real only if it happens in Moscow.

Third, there are some very interesting, and extremely unconfirmed, rumors of various factions shifting positions (as it were) in Moscow. Are they looking to perhaps push things along, or just preparing for Vladimir to no longer be in power? And, yes, Vladimir’s position is no longer stable even with the lies, propaganda, outside troops, and cultural issues.

Fourth, this brings us to the situation on the ground in the Ukraine. The Russians flat out have been humiliated, and it’s not over yet. Even with throwing conscripts into the cauldron (without training or even working gear in some cases), odds are good the Russians are going to get pounded. Which actually puts things back to where they were early on with the Russians limited to trying to terrorize the civilian population. Keep in mind, they see this as a legitimate target, because you either are a good Russian at heart pining to be a part of Russkiy Mir, or you are a Nazi who deserves to be raped/tortured/maimed/killed/etc. Obviously, since they have resisted the heroic Russian army of liberation…

Fifth, Vladimir is going full-Hitler. He is taking over more and more of the decision making, and otherwise trying to run everything. Didn’t work for Hitler, won’t work for him. There are already signs of some extremely poor decisions being made, including using up extremely limited stockpiles of precision weapons on non-precision targets (Xi smiles). I really hope anyone who reads me is also reading the ISW, Stephen Green, and others for combat and other analysis, and Kamil Galeev for his insights on Russian culture, history, and more.

There is more, of course, but those are the high notes, which bring me to my trying to read the tea leaves. Here we go.

Based on his latest statement, Vladimir appears to actually be trying to slow walk both an escalation to nuclear or special weapons, and to temper the expectations of his hardline followers. Part of this could be from a small bit of reality about his military breaking into the bubble in which he and so many of the oligarchia live, but I wouldn’t count on it. I suspect it is more from pressure from fellow oligarchs who realize a nuclear war would be bad for business and that while they don’t mind others dying for the Rodina, they object to the fact that they would die.

The layered response discussed means, however, that those evil Ukrainian civilians are going to get what he thinks they deserve as often as possible. Setbacks, defeats, anything happening on territory that he even faintly imagines might have belonged to Russia at some time in another reality means attacks on civilian targets.

As he steps up the escalation, however, it also increases the chances that we might see the use of non-nuclear special weapons. For all that the U.S. has equated use of such as being the same as the use of a nuke, reality is that we have never responded as such when they have been used previously. So, Vladimir is quite likely to consider such use on that basis, and to react badly if we do suddenly decide to enforce our convention. He will pitch a public tantrum no matter what, that’s a given.

Vladimir could decide to do a demonstration, as it were. Sal, aka CDR Salamander, has a very interesting take on such. Back in the days of extensive testing of systems and weapons, the goal (on our side) was to have at least 80 percent of the systems and weapons work if the button(s) were pushed. Right now, I’m wondering if even 20 percent would work on any side. No, I really don’t want to find out but Sal’s take is a good one.

There have been a number of highly-realistic wargames done where a tactical nuke was used. I would feel much better if anyone could name one where it did not end up going strategic. Yes, a number of limited scenarios (and extremely unrealistic larger games) have avoided it. Just not the ones based on reality. With calm, competent, stable, and intelligent leadership, I think it can be avoided. With the Regency, Vladimir, Xi, Macaroon, et al, well, we may be having to pin our hope on ol’ 20 percent (or less).

As scary as that is, let me give you something else to think about. By luck we avoid the use of a nuclear weapon by anyone for any reason. The fact is, we can’t give in to such blackmail, otherwise the use of such will never end. Sanity would be for everyone to realize that, and step back. Yet, Vladimir is facing a humiliating defeat not just for himself, but for the dream of Russkiy Mir. If he can’t have the Ukraine, no one will.

The last cruise missiles go in, carrying conventional warheads. They hit at every nuclear power plant in the Ukraine. The goal is not to hit the reactors themselves, but to take out power and control. The idea being to create a situation at each that makes Chernobyl look like nothing. Hit Chernobyl to damage the shield. Vladimir seems to have already hinted at this once, and it is not something I would put past him. Particularly since he’s been playing that very game at Zaporizhia for weeks now. In fact, I would expect a massive maskirova based on what he’s been doing there to go with it, to try to shift the blame elsewhere. How would we react to that?

What can we do? Two things. First, pray. I mean that very sincerely. Second, prepare. It’s going to be a long nasty winter around the world, no matter what happens, so if you haven’t gotten into practical preparedness now is a good time. If you aren’t familiar with preparedness or my version of practical preparedness, start here and work forward. While the potential number of disasters is infinity-minus-2, there are only three things that can be damaged and that makes planning and preparations much easier. Even if we avoid any form of nuclear incident in or because of the Ukraine, being prepared is likely to help make this winter easier.

Meantime, I don’t expect things to go ballistic in the next few hours. In fact, with what Vladimir said today, I see some breathing room as it were. Possibly several weeks worth. I think before we get to any form of go/nogo situation, we will see a number of things happen.

First, I expect to see Belarus invade the Ukraine along with Russian troops. This week or next week at the latest. Vladimir desperately needs that second front to draw troops away from the east and south. There are a number of reasons for Lukashenko to join in, including his own ambitions. Ed Morrissey has his take up at Hot Air. I will note that Lukashenko has cultivated a bumbling, country bumpkin image with Russian media and leadership, and an amazing number of them seem to be stupid enough to buy it. He’s used that image to stick a finger in Vladimir’s eye before and get away with it. He’s joining in, but don’t expect slavish devotion as his Number 1 is not Vladimir or his goals. Oh, and I think his birthday gift of a tractor to Vladimir was very well played. ISW does not agree with me on this, and I hope they are right and I’m wrong.

Second, I expect to see Russia lose more ground in the east and south. How much is going to be the question. Vladimir will be looking for any chance to claim that something was done on Russian territory so he can hurt more civilians, so expect to see the Ukrainians fight smart.

Third, I would expect to see MOPP gear show up for Russian/Wagner troops. Open question for any OSINT who read this: is anyone seeing any MOPP gear with any Russian troops anywhere? Heck, is anyone seeing any MOPP gear anywhere? Right now, the Russians don’t seem to be able to supply uniforms, cold or wet weather gear, or much of anything else. Even with the Russian attitude towards the life of the troops (eh, we can get more), you are likely to get squeamish commanders who are going to balk at using any special weapon if it’s going to kill more of their troops than the enemy. So, I would expect to see at least some attempt to protect the Russian troops first.

Fourth, I would expect to see several levels of escalation first. After all, Vladimir wants to make the case that he tried everything else first. That it also allows him to study the board and see if his threats are having the intended effect is important too.

So, no boom today. Not seeing it tomorrow either. The Day After? We will see.

*****

PayPal

Yes, PayPal is gone and I am in search of another service for donations. I want one that actually is focused on providing service, not servicing people with politics and totalitarianism. As soon as I find such, I will put a link up in The Bard’s Jar.

I suppose it could be argued that deliberation and patience are in order, given that using PayPal has helped me survive financially after getting hit by lightning. Many of you have shown me the extraordinary kindness of sending me gifts via PayPal that have allowed me to eat, pay bills, move my hosting, and more. I am now limited to just the fundraiser, until I can find a replacement. So be it. I would rather risk missing a bill than to continue to use them. I would rather live in my car under an underpass somewhere than give those authoritarian goons a single dime more.

By the way, if you sincerely believe the statement they have issued walking back their draconian policy: Do I Have A Deal For You! Bridge. Guaranteed moneymaker. Cash Only.

The only reason they have backed down is the lights being shined on them and the number of people closing their accounts. More need to cancel. More lights need to be shined. Because unless that happens, anyone want to start a pool on how long it is before they try this crap again? Social credit systems are all the rage in China and with the WEF crowd, but have place in a free society. Anyone pushing such is in desperate need of a tar and feather spa day.

And, that is exactly what PayPal was doing: trying to bring a social credit system to the United States. I’m doing what I can by closing my account, a process they apparently have decided to make as difficult as they can. I hope others join me, as until PayPal is in the grave with a wooden stake through it’s heart and a sharp blade over its neck like that “vampire” corpse they just found in Europe, the danger remains. As I said above, they will try this crap again.

So, let them know what you think with your wallet. Take your business elsewhere. Shine a light and be sure to note the regulatory environment they have. The more of us who do that, the better. For it is time to raze and salt the ground so they nor anyone else is foolish enough to try to do this ever again.

*****

Well, Shit

NOTE: Welcome Instapundit Readers and others. Apologies for the slow loading and such, but “new” host has issues too. As fast as I can come up with an additional $175, am switching to a different provider. And, yes, plan to get my money back from the “new” provider and use it to upgrade the new new provider. Thank you for your patience, and your gifts!

Just finished watching Vladimir’s rambling speech. A few things, other than rambling and what appear to be some interesting word choices/phrasing, pop out immediately.

First, it was a recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir, how everyone has been mean to Russia, done it bad, and otherwise behaved like a guy in a Crystal Gayle song towards the Rodina throughout its history. For all that the US was the focus of his bitching, Great Britain comes in for a lot of oblique criticism too. In fact, it might could be argued that more was directed at them than most may realize — it depends on how well one knows Russian history and Russian culture.

Two, it was — as expected — staking a position that any attempt to liberate/assault/etc. any of the territories they were claiming was an attack on Russia. That any attack on Russia would be responded to with overwhelming force including special weapons/nuclear weapons at need. I really want to go back and listen to him on this point, as I think the translation may have missed a bit. Again, as with another recent statement, it seemed to push special (chemical) ahead of nuclear but with some of the rambling…

Three, he pretty much accused the US of attacking the Nordstream pipelines, and in the process effectively denied that Russia had deliberately sabotaged them. Given some interesting info that is coming out from those knowledgeable, one has to wonder if Russian incompetence may have resulted in the explosions, which makes the wording used by Vladimir potentially very interesting.

Four, his attack on Western values including references to transitioning children and other hot-button topics in the West (including family values which may have included an indirect swipe at the new Italian PM) was IMO a touch of brilliance that reflects the old Vladimir rather than the current. I expect to see any attempt to go after such efforts in the West now resulting in accusations of being a Russian stooge/proxy/agent/etc. Yet more Gramscian damage to the West. Well played.

Five, I really want to go back and re-listen to his words and phrasing, but I believe Vladimir may have just repudiated every arms treaty, strategic or otherwise, in effect. That Russia would not be bound by efforts to reduce her defense by other powers who were already in violation of said treaties and using them to keep the Rodina down. Huge, and I suspect this is going to get overlooked in the short term. Oh, it was also the reason for my “Oh. Shit.” twitter post.

Six, in his rambling, Vladimir made plain that Russia was great; Russian culture was far superior to Western (or Eastern) culture; Russia would resume its proper place on the world stage; and that all true Russian people would flock to Russia’s banner. Again, Russkiy Mir.

The stage is set. Now, we wait to see what happens.

For those interested, the best way to prevent the use of nukes and escalation is to emphasize preparedness. Not on the Federal level, but to show that State and local governments have taken steps to ensure continuity of government and services. That individuals have taken steps and are prepared to deal with what comes. That works, and yes there are substantive reasons for saying this. Along with other preparations, a remarkable amount of deterence can be achieved.

Final note: cut the sound off and watch him. In fact, do it several times and each time focus on a different area: head, right arm, left arm, torso, feet. Then, watch the reactions in the audience. Some of them are quite interesting. Then, cut the sound on and listen just to him, no translators or talking heads, while watching him and the audience. Yes, I’m thinking there are some things you might should be catching. Far more than just the rambling and stumbling.

While we wait, prepare. Now’s the time, make the most of it.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness: BugOut!

In the ideal situation, before projection onto the wall of Plato’s cave, we would all live in areas removed from potential disturbance. Our homes would be our castles ready to stand against all of nature and man at need. All our preparations would be at hand, our stocks updated as we used things in day-to-day life, and we would have not a care in the world.

For all that I find it pretty good, and in fact in some ways much better than deserved, the fact is that life is not ideal. Storms can and will hit. The earth will rock upon occasion (even in areas not normally known for that). Trains can and will derail, even as trucks will crash. Politicians will do stupid things and we bear the brunt of it.

The net result is that you need to be prepared to do the bugout boogie at need. The enemy may be in greater numbers than expected; the water is coming in higher than expected; the train that derailed not far from your home was carrying nasty stuff; and, any number of other things make your best option that of leaving your well-prepared abode.

You really should have bugout bags ready to go, though few seem to truly do so. Even my own bugout bags right now could stand some updating, I admit. These bags should have everything you need to get by for a while: clothing, gear, supplies, and yes weapons. At least two of my bags are packed so I can literally sweep my medicines and supplements into one of them, get one or both to the car, and take off in about five minutes time. Give me ten minutes, and I’m even better off.

Your main (and any secondary) bugout bags should all have copies (in waterproof containers) of your driver’s license, important papers, etc. These need to be kept updated (I need to check mine as my medical has oddly updated a few times since getting hit by lightning). I also recommend keeping originals on you, again in waterproof wrappings.

Any cash is distributed and hidden, and where I can I have some redundancy in my packing. I include a fair bit of camping gear in my bugout prep: shelters can be interesting and in some cases governments have taken/tried to take food and more away from those coming in. There may not be shelters set up for the emergency, and motels may or may not be an option. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Thus, I have my camping gear either ready to go or in some cases parts of it in the car already.

Things, generally, are not worth your life. If there is time and if there is room, I would grab a photo album or two, and any other small extremely sentimental items and take with me. They would also be one of the first things I leave behind if I have to stage down.

Staging is the part of bugout that far too many seem to miss. As I’ve noted before, I want to start out motorized if it all possible. That said, you may find roads blocked or impassable, something may happen to the vehicle, etc. The best staging I’ve ever heard about (think I’ve discussed this before) involved an RV towing a car that had off road motorcycles on a trailer behind it. There were bicycles attached to the RV as well. The idea was to take the RV as far as possible (hopefully all the way to safety). If there were issues, drop to the car and tow the motorcycles, bicycles, and max supplies. Car can’t get anywhere, use the motorcycles and have one of them tow the trailer with the bikes and other supplies pulled from the RV. If problems came up with the motorcycles, drop to the bikes. Last resort is always shanks mare.

The thing is, every time you stage down, you are losing mobility and supplies. You plan for it, but you also try to keep from having to stage down if at all possible. Keep the maximum options open to you.

Watching Ian, and thinking about a couple of situations here, I need to step up my own bugout plans. While the ideal is to stay in place, that may not be an option in any number of circumstances. So, I’m going to be working on that as I can in the coming days. The last thing you want to be doing is trying to prepare to bugout as the disaster is hitting.

Just a quick thought for the morning.

BTW, before I forget: kudos to the disaster preparedness people in Florida! From the reports I’m getting the county offices really hit the ground running, did what they could, asked for what they needed, pre-positioned what they could, and otherwise were as set as they could be for Ian. In turn, the state-level operations responded to requests quickly, efficiently, and otherwise made sure yet more people and supplies were in pre-po for the aftermath. Real problem is going to be that you can’t plan for everything, and it is quite likely some who should have bugged out didn’t for any number of reasons. One being economics and just not even able to afford the gas to get out. Meantime, with what I have right now, it looks like one heck of an effort led by the counties — which is how it should be done. Pay attention, as good or bad there are going to be a LOT of lessons for learning courtesy of Ian.

*****