Current Events – Page 29 – The Laughing Wolf

A Most Interesting Speech

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, GabPay, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

As I noted yesterday, I spent some time listening to Vladimir’s speech and digesting it. To be honest, I also was looking for/waiting for some other things I suspected might be coming.

Meantime, it was also amusing to watch some of the very predictable coverage of the speech. The alarmists/click-baiters fastened onto his comment about this being the most dangerous decade since the end of WWII, predictably. More on that topic in a moment. Those who missed a lot of message and context referred to the speech as “boring” or “deluded.”

On the surface, the speech was predicable, plodding in some respects though it appeared Vladimir went off-script in a few places (interesting in it’s own right) based on the translator’s reactions. On the surface, yet another recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir and the subsequent invasion. I’d say that at least 95% of the canned speech was aimed at the internal audience, though if it reached useful idiots abroad, great. I’d say less than 5% was aimed at the non-Russian audience.

From an outside viewpoint, the majority of the speech could be described as delusional. In fact, after a couple of points, I noted on social media that I could have sworn that I saw his nose grow. Yet, in terms of his intended audience, it was not delusional though it might be aimed in part at encouraging delusion on their part.

Between it and the parts of the Q&A I got to hear, the speech was a reminder of all that led to the creation of Russkiy Mir. Russia has always faced enemies, Russia and the Russian people have been done wrong time and time again, with outsiders (particularly the west and noticeably emphasized in the speech was Great Britain) treating both like Crystal Gale was done in so many of her songs. Russia has always been the victim, never the aggressor. Vladimir, that offspring of the working class, scion and defender of the Church, faith, and all that is good and right (note all the discussion of transgenderism, wokeness, and related), has been elevated not merely to defend Russia but to save and advance it.

Keep in mind the memetics of this (as well as the work of Gramsci and the huge amount of Gramscian damage in the West). Russia is a very different culture from our own. Always has been. To better understand that and the historical roots of same, please read Kamil Galeev on Twitter or the Threadreader App. Keep in mind that within that culture there is an ongoing fight between those who are Slavophile versus those who feel Russia should look to the West and adopt Western ideals. Right now, the Slavophile element is in control, and the last full leader of the Western view (such as he was), Gorbachev, is now dead and buried.

Logic and reason have a place in Russia, but not the pride of place it (allegedly) has here in the West. Mythology, if you will, can and does matter more in swaying public opinion. Just look at the recent assassination of the daughter of “Putin’s brain” or philosopher. That it was most likely (IMO) an FSB operation that really was intended to get him and her, but just getting her worked too within the politics of the day. Yet, it immediately became the tale of the virtuous Russian maiden, slain by treachery and deceit by a vile female Ukrainian Nazi. Full state funeral to emphasize the tale. How did it work? Outside of Russia, only a few useful idiots bought in. Inside Russia? Not as well as they would have liked. Reality, in the form of casualties and costs, limited the effect of the myth.

Which brings us back to the speech and the Q&A. Note how Vladimir started the speech, with discussion on ecology which he emphasized by noting that many might be surprised he started with it. That was something aimed at internal and external audiences, and many missed it. Instead of the normal lashing out at the West, Vladimir talked the need to conserve, preserve, and improve the environment large, and called out the small as well. In the entire speech, look at what was not said, not just what was said and in what order. The subtext to the speech was intended for several audiences, and I hope they were paying attention.

Ignoring some of the expected and predictable memetics, I will say Vladimir was not wrong about this being the most dangerous decade since WWII. We are entering a period that has the potential to make the Cuban Missile Crisis and other close calls of the Cold War look like child’s play. The old order, and old major powers, are failing. The Ukraine has ended Russia’s hold on the status of major military power, and exposed the rotten core within. China’s desperation may yet lead it to try to invade Taiwan, but even as it prepares to do so, it too is stumbling. In the West, the so-called rule of experts that hit its peak after WWII is falling. Anyone who thinks any power, or those who have wielded power for so long, are going to give that up easily and willfully is deluded. Given nuclear weapons and more, I’d say the case can be made that we are entering the most dangerous decade in the known history of humanity. It is not going to be a fun or easy ride, no matter what.

Again, note what he didn’t say in the speech. There was effectively no bluff, no threats, even almost an avoidance of direct talk of the war. It was not truly brought up until the Q&A. Now that got interesting, and again much of this was aimed internal, not external (save to useful idiots). The idea that Vladimir and Russia have NEVER threatened use, only hinted, was part of a well-laid campaign. Note how he brought up the threats from the British, which is going to play well in some quarters. The Slavophile dislike of the Brits showed through, just as it has throughout the invasion. Worth noting that they’ve gone after Great Britain more than they have the U.S. by a good margin. Leaving aside the hapless Truss, Vladimir was almost gentle in pointing out the threats of Biden. Which, given that the demented meat puppet and his incompetent Regency have chewed their shoes with their feet still in them almost continuously, is something.

Not sure what it says that I laughed along with Vladimir at the Khruschev comparison, but again note what wasn’t said along with what was said. No direct threats, though he invited all to read Russian doctrine on nukes. An emphasis on the threats incoming. The dirty bomb and nuclear plant discussions were interesting. Much wasn’t said, and how it wasn’t said was interesting indeed.

Which is why I was unsurprised to read this. Is it an opening? Maybe. Between the speech and a variety of reports I suspect that if a graceful way can be found to take the nuclear serpent off the table, though not out of the room, there would be interest in so doing. The question is if what it would take to do so is something everyone would be willing to do. It also depends on various leaders having the sense and counsel to realize an opening is there and not suffer the usual hoof and mouth disease.

Are we in any way, shape, or form out of the woods? Fuck no! At best we might have an opening to start discussing finding a way out of the woods. Are the Russians continuing with their pathetic (by outside standards) attempts at maskirova via dirty bomb? Yes. The fact that no one outside of Russia is really buying it doesn’t matter, that is aimed internal far more than external. Is the use of nukes, chemical, and other still a part of Russian doctrine, the same doctrine Vladimir invited one and all to read? Yes. Which means it is still very much on the table.

The key on all for now is the Donbas. Vladimir made that very plain yesterday. From historical claims on up, the Donbas now is at the heart of the issue. Which is why I say that what Vladimir wants may not be acceptable to all. What is needed for “peace” was made very clear by Vladimir yesterday. Which means that on the one hand we may have an opening to standing down the nuclear viper, and conversely we are in even greater danger than before. Now we know for sure the physical location of the schwerpunkt, and have a better idea of the philosophical schwerpunkts in play.

And yes, despite yesterday’s speech I still think that if Vladimir can’t have the Donbas (and the whole Ukraine), he’s perfectly willing to ensure no one can. Formally, for all he seems to have provided an opening, no option was truly removed from the table.

Before I close, be sure to watch his hands and legs during the speech. Telling. It seemed to take more out of him that he wanted to let on. Excellent make up job, even better than normal. Hmmmm.

Between this and the diesel situation (along with others) here, if you can, redouble your preparations, particularly food. Please hit my fundraiser so I can pay bills and do so as well. Stock up, hunker down, and let’s pray for the best.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Double, Triple, Or…

I’ve been watching a couple of things play out on Twitter and in the news that remind me I am no longer young. Or, perhaps, that many of those in the OSINT (Open Source INTelligence) world are younger, much younger, than I. That is not intended as a knock against them in any way, as some of them are displaying a mastery of Intelligence (or select portions thereof) equal to or exceeding some of the so-called professionals. Also something of a hallmark for good OSINT…

As for me, I started reading James Bond and other spy novels in the late 1960s and was fascinated with the work of John Barron and eagerly read his KGB: The Secret Work of Soviet Secret Agents when it came out in 1974. Then again, this also all tied into my fascination with the Soviet Union, the space race, and nuclear war and surviving same. Which led to some interesting times and places, but…

Right now, this story has portions of the OSINT and other communities tied up in knots. Welcome to the game.

Unlike The Game that is nuclear strategy and war, the game has played out pretty much throughout human history. Spying, spies, and gathering intelligence on friends, potential friends, and enemies has been around for as long as civilization itself. Is that person an agent, double-agent, triple-agent, or something else yet again? I’m going to skip the whole agent versus operative versus spy thing for now. The question has always been, can I trust that person.

Let’s face it, it’s a good question. In olden days, many of those who were spies or agents were not the most savory of people out there. Heck, the same holds true today in many respects. Spies were often found amongst the smugglers, thieves, drunken sailors, and other non-desirable types in many cases. Even when not from the riff-raff, those who would spy on or flat-out betray their country are not always tightly wrapped, to be polite. One of the greatest intelligence assets ever, Agent Farewell who provided the intel that helped bring down the Soviet Union, proves that point IMO.

Back in the Cold War, neither side trusted those who defected, no matter what public show may have been put on in regards them. Some were legitimate, some had defected in order to gather intel that they would then pass along/take back with them when the re-defected, and some were something else. In some cases on the latter, they are still trying to figure out what that person was. Some real defectors would eventually get some respect, but never full trust. Others, to be merely suspected of being a plant or double agent, meant horror. Never mind what the Soviets did (which truly was a horror), take a look at what James Jesus Angelton did to those he suspected — with or without evidence.

Over the years I’ve met people who emigrated; I’ve met a couple that were essentially kicked out of their country; I’ve met people who escaped their country; and I’ve met a couple of defectors. Of the latter, a Mig pilot impressed me and I very much enjoyed the chance to get to know him a small bit. Of the former, most were/are decent and hardworking. Those who escaped, and often paid a price for that escape, I tended to trust a bit more easily.

I also have come to share an attitude held by many who routinely work with defectors and related: if the person loudly and theatrically denounces the country they came from, it’s leaders, and even more loudly and theatrically praise the U.S. (or GB, or wherever they were), well, the less anyone trusted them. True defectors and immigrants tend to have mixed feelings, as no matter what they thought of what the country they had left had become, it was still their country, their homeland. They may have been relieved at being safe, and thrilled for the opportunities that awaited, but there was always a bit of sorrow at having to leave. For some, I’m told, it turned into something so profound that they eventually had to return, even knowing in some cases the horrible death that awaited.

For all things, and with all people, “Trust but verify” as Boss would say. As for the story that sparked this, I will simply note that what came before is nothing. It’s what is done now that counts, and one has to work — sometimes extremely hard — to earn respect and trust. In cases like this, even if respect is earned, it’s better to exercise appropriate judgement in regards how far one trusts.

*****

So You…

Sorry for the delay in posting today, but I’ve been doing something so you don’t have to. In this case, I spent part of the morning listening to Vladimir’s speech at the Valdai Club conference. I wish I could have listened to all the Q&A as well, but hopefully got what I needed with what I could stick around for. Wondering just how many questions were planted.

I’m actually going to chew over what was said (and more importantly in at least one case, what was NOT said) a bit before commenting. It would be very easy to mistake the formal speech for banal and boring, but that misses the points of it. I will note that while Vladimir usually does have very good makeup, today’s was extremely well done.

There were a number of messages in the speech and Q&A. That’s one reason I want to think about things a bit and double-check if needed before saying anything. He may not be the master manipulator he once was, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still good. More soon.

*****

PayPal Update

Since first asking that the account be closed on the 9th, nada. Despite multiple requests, they keep saying that it can’t be closed because of an unspecified technical issue that affects myself and others. No word from them, no updates, nada.

So, this afternoon I went online to the State AG’s site and filed a formal complaint. As resolution, I want my account closed and the AG (and the SEC if needed) to be sure that this mysterious unspecified technical issue was not by any chance an effort to influence or mislead investors or others. Surely it is not, but better to check in an abundance of caution.

Nuclear Oz

Only this time, Toto wasn’t needed to draw back the curtain as the Russians never bothered to close it in the first place. Interesting being able to see the illusion they are trying to peddle (mostly to an internal audience, but also to idiots abroad) while watching the reality.

No, not really too concerned this morning about the reports from Russian MoD about the readiness of their CBRN units. Nor am I too surprised at the Sunday morning talk show push (in Russia) or the calls by Shoigu to various leaders around the world. And I’m definitely not surprised by the groundwork for false-flag operations being laid.

First, remember that we are supposedly in the middle of their annual nuclear preparedness exercise. If so, no surprise that the cream of the crop of the CBRN units are ready to put on a pretty picture. Real question is if it is a picture of reality or just another Potemkin Village. There are reports (and conjecture) out there that their true readiness for such is on par with their uniforms and other equipment thanks to rampant corruption.

Before I forget, I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off at the stories coming out blaming all problems on theft by individual troops. This has been covered a bit before, but after Putin sacked his generals (all but two) and even some higher ranks and gave the positions to oligarchia to loot, things got so bad that small units and even individuals did indeed start stealing equipment and such simply to be able to eat. Want to know if a story on this is out of the Kremlin directly or indirectly? If it focuses on the individual troops stealing, and ignores the higher-level corruption, it’s a Kremlin production no matter the masthead.

Second, the push on the false-flag/maskirova items, along with all the phone calls, is fairly simple. I agree with the ISW that a lot of it is intended to slow down or stop deliveries and other support to the Ukraine. If the Ukraine can be isolated to any degree, it will help Russian efforts. If it works to any degree, expect to see a lot more of it. That said, they truly are trying to set the stage, particularly to the internal audience (and the brain dead external) that it was all the dastardly Ukrainian Nazi Scumbags and not the sweet and innocent Russian troops and leadership. Cough.

For reasons I won’t fully go into at this time, I remain concerned that if things don’t go well, Vladimir will go after every nuclear plant in the Ukraine in an attempt to damage the country and destroy it by other means. Again, they may attempt some maskirova and engage in false-flag operations, but there are those in Russia who feel that if they can’t seize the Ukraine, then no one — especially the Ukrainians — should be allowed to keep it either.

Now, in regards the list of false-flag/maskirova, one thing to keep in mind, this isn’t the first time they’ve done this. Syria is but one example. If you have the time and patience, and go back into the Cold War, the same was done at different times (usually a time of tensions) so that if there was a war, they would already have the pretexts in place for escalation.

So, I find things concerning, but nothing more than that at this time. In fact, some of it is sadly predictable. There are some things I am going to watch for, and if I do see them, then I will be worried. Until then, simply vigilant.

For those on Twitter, I am on there as LaughingWolfOne and if you are looking for good sources of information, try my Intel list. There are a couple on there that I would highly recommend, as while not 100 percent right (no one is) they have a better track record than several of the three-letter and related.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

PayPal And Donation Update

For the record, PayPal still hasn’t cancelled my account. They are still claiming that a ‘technical issue’ is preventing them from closing a number of accounts including mine.

Yes, it has been a hit taking them off here. There has been a significant drop in donations, the gifts that keep me going and will hopefully get me on out to the SW here soon. So much so I’m in a bit of a bind.

So, I’m in the process of jumping through the hoops to add GabPay as an option, and am exploring others. Any suggestions for a good alternative that isn’t going to play woke games?

*****

Conventions, Conventions

Today brings us a guest post by Romulus Wolf, looking at the confusion between the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and the confusion over which treaties to which we (United States) are signatories. It does make a difference, especially with so many, ah, enthusiastic voices this, that, and the other to be a war crime. So, enjoy the food for thought brought to you by our much appreciated guest author.

The Hague and Geneva Conventions, universally agreed upon treaties that govern much of the laws of war… Well, not so much, at least where “Universally agreed upon” is concerned.

Ratification of individual provisions is often spottier than one might expect.
And not always in the ways one might expect either. After all, it’s one thing for the landlocked nation of Chad to simply not bother to enter into 1907 Hague Convention VII. Chances are that they’re not going to be converting many merchant ships into warships. It’s another thing entirely when a major naval power not only doesn’t ratify, but actively objects to that particular convention, on the grounds that t banning such conversions would put something of a crimp in their ability to flood the seas with (legally authorized) commerce raiders1. For the moment, the US is the only serious naval power that ISN’T party. All because we took the possibility of using private warships seriously as late as 1907(2). While the US is the only major naval power of the 20^th and 21^st centuries to not be party, not all of our company among those not party to the treaty consists of landlocked nations such as Chad, Nepal, or Mongolia. We also share company with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of whom have at least some potential for benefit from merchant ship conversions. Not that party to this treaty ever stopped anyone, as both Britain and Germany used merchant ship conversions as Q-ships in WWI and WWII.

Ah, but surely, as I have been informed by countless internet denizens, the ban on “Dum-dum” or expanding bullets in the Geneva convention has universal, or near universal adoptions? Well, to start with, that one is part of the 1899 Hague Conventions, Declaration IV,3, and it turns out that the adoption of this one is even more spotty. The map isn’t too dissimilar here, albeit with the very notable disappearance of all of Latin America – with the exception of Mexico – from the list of parties. For the most part, concerns about expanding bullets would seem to be a Eurasian phenomenon. The Americas, Africa, and Oceania are mostly not party to this particular treaty. So, unless you’re getting involved in a land war in Eurasia, don’t expect the bullets to be non-expanding – or, more accurately, don’t expect the laws of war to be the reasoning for non-expanding bullets, as most nations use standard ball ammo, regardless of whether they’re party to the treaty or not3.

Now, the Geneva Conventions do have rather better adoption – everyone worth noting is party to Geneva Conventions I-IV, but the additional protocols do get interesting. Additional protocol I, which does a lot, supposedly relating to the protection of victims of international conflict, has very broad adoption, but the list of non-parties is certainly quite interesting. The US, Iran, and Pakistan have signed, but not ratified it (and signature without ratification has no force), and notable non members include Turkey, Israel, India, and Indonesia. It’s sometimes easy to speculate why a nation may or may not have entered into a treaty when the treaty only limits a single or small number of actions, but with the Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva convention, there is so much going on that figuring out anyone’s reasoning about why is probably fruitless – although it does bear noting that much of Additional Protocols I and II is duplicates of something already a part of the laws and customs of war, such as the prohibition on Perfidy (redundantly even within the protocol). The highlights of what Additional Protocol I does include bans on “works and installations containing dangerous forces”, a ban on “methods or means of warfare” that will cause “widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”, a ban on conscription of those under the age of 15, and ensuring that mercenaries are not given protection as legal combatants (note, the definition used is quite narrow – for example, citizens of belligerents, and residents of territories under the control of belligerents are not covered by the definition of mercenary, nor is anyone not taking direct part in hostilities).

Of course, if we leave the realm of the Hague and Geneva Conventions for other treaties, things tend to be even spottier. Earlier this year, there were people getting the vapors over the fact that both Ukraine and Russia were using cluster munitions – not in the specifics of how they were used, which absolutely could have been war crimes (and probably were in at least some instances), but the fact that they were used at all – when neither nation is party to the treaty. In fact, given how spotty adoption of that particular treaty is, chances are that if a war starts up somewhere, at least one of the belligerents will not be party to the treaty.

So, why are international treaties on the subject of war lacking in universal adoption? How can nations such as the US, opt out of major chunks of both the Hague and Geneva Conventions? Well, to oversimplify how international law works, think of nations as individuals with Dissociative identity disorder (and frequently a good chunk of the rest of the DSM for flavor), who can only be bound by rules that they agree to, and each individual personality gets a vote. You can persuade, guilt trip, bribe, and use economic coercion, but in the end, some treaties simply won’t get signed without violence, or a credible threat of it 4. They can also sign with reservations, . And even when everyone involved is party to the treaty consider that in 1914 Germany, Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey were party to 1899 Hague Declaration IV,II, which banned projectiles “the sole object of which is the diffusion of asphyxiating or deleterious gases”, and we all know how THAT turned out. So, for anything beyond the basics, and especially for more technical items, take claims of it being illegal under international law with a grain of salt, especially if they can’t tell you which treaty5 it came from, and definitely have low expectations where actually following the treaty is concerned.

Sources:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Treaty.xsp?documentId=D9E6B6264D7723C3C12563CD002D6CE4&action=openDocument

https://archive.ph/qDqpc

https://archive.ph/sIKqA

https://archive.ph/FxpDg

https://www.clusterconvention.org/

The Viper On The Table

I love this analogy by Wretchard! It is a marvelous turn of phrase that cuts to the essence of what the necromancer has thrown down before all. Not surprising that he did so, as you really should be reading him on twitter or other sites.

I must disagree with him, however, when he says nobody knows what to do with it. I touched on this a bit yesterday, but today I shall be blunt.

Everyone knows what must be done with the summoned abomination, and the necromancer who summoned it. They must be destroyed, and it must be done in a way that makes clear what will happen to any who try to summon it again.

The fear, by both those at the table in opposition to the necromancer and those he represents, and by those who increasingly realize that letting him represent them was a very bad mistake, is that the serpent might do more than quiver, and strike many before it is brought down. Even the necromancer is in fear of this right now, as his abomination threatens him as well.

The best thing would be for those who the necromancer alleges to represent to deal with him themselves. Such would be bloody and brutal, but contained if they destroy the necromancer and his own before he can unleash the beast. The next best, for actions by those around the table being threatened to eliminate both threats before they can react, is fraught with peril for all.

Yet, action must be taken. The threat is made and the beast summoned. If the Necromancer gets away with it, he will be emboldened and will start with it the next time he acts. Worse, other necromancers elsewhere will seize upon it, and the end results may well end up being worse than a nuclear war now. For it is a given that everyone and their brother will be developing or obtaining nuclear and other special weapons for use by their necromancers unless an example is made.

As I said, the best option is for his own people to deal with the Necromancer themselves, and ensure the serpent does not rise. Otherwise, there are few options and none will be palatable or pleasant. Choose wisely.

I also agree with Wretchard on this take, which is a bit of a play on Heinlein. Earth is the cradle of humanity, and it’s past time we left the cradle. For even if the proper example is made, there will be another necromancer somewhere (possibly many) who will be convinced they are smarter and faster, and will try this again. The serpent can take many forms, and that many of those can easily turn on their alleged masters and escape them to truly destroy the world is lost upon the mad.

It is only by spreading out in our own solar system and beyond that we can survive. The mad can still destroy many, but not all. Choose wisely.

For now, pray for that which is right to be. And prepare. More on that in a few.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

60-40

The question that continues to be asked is if we are going to have a nuclear war. The honest answer to that is: I don’t know. There are a large number of variables and based on where everything is this morning, I think the odds might be as high as 40-60 right now.

The real question people should be asking is if we will have a nuclear incident. I use that phrase deliberately, as there is an option on the table that is either being ignored or overlooked. Right now, I think the odds of a nuclear incident are 60-40.

There are a lot of factors in play. Here’s my take on just a few of them.

First, to say there are cracks emerging in Russia is an understatement. It would appear that a number of factions are not just jockeying for position, but are attacking each other. There are reports indicating that Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is going after Shoigu, head of the military. If it is indeed a fight between them, I might put $10 on Shoigu given his experience with infighting. Where it gets interesting is with the rumors that Kadyrov is joining in to go after Shoigu. For a number of reasons, Kadyrov is the king keeper or king maker in Russia right now. If he joins in, my money is no longer on Shoigu to win.

Second, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t matter. People can riot and hang Putin in effigy in multiple cities in districts outside of Moscow, and it really won’t matter. The only city for which that does not hold true is St. Petersburg. What happens in St. Petersburg has a tendency to slide over into Moscow. It’s real only if it happens in Moscow.

Third, there are some very interesting, and extremely unconfirmed, rumors of various factions shifting positions (as it were) in Moscow. Are they looking to perhaps push things along, or just preparing for Vladimir to no longer be in power? And, yes, Vladimir’s position is no longer stable even with the lies, propaganda, outside troops, and cultural issues.

Fourth, this brings us to the situation on the ground in the Ukraine. The Russians flat out have been humiliated, and it’s not over yet. Even with throwing conscripts into the cauldron (without training or even working gear in some cases), odds are good the Russians are going to get pounded. Which actually puts things back to where they were early on with the Russians limited to trying to terrorize the civilian population. Keep in mind, they see this as a legitimate target, because you either are a good Russian at heart pining to be a part of Russkiy Mir, or you are a Nazi who deserves to be raped/tortured/maimed/killed/etc. Obviously, since they have resisted the heroic Russian army of liberation…

Fifth, Vladimir is going full-Hitler. He is taking over more and more of the decision making, and otherwise trying to run everything. Didn’t work for Hitler, won’t work for him. There are already signs of some extremely poor decisions being made, including using up extremely limited stockpiles of precision weapons on non-precision targets (Xi smiles). I really hope anyone who reads me is also reading the ISW, Stephen Green, and others for combat and other analysis, and Kamil Galeev for his insights on Russian culture, history, and more.

There is more, of course, but those are the high notes, which bring me to my trying to read the tea leaves. Here we go.

Based on his latest statement, Vladimir appears to actually be trying to slow walk both an escalation to nuclear or special weapons, and to temper the expectations of his hardline followers. Part of this could be from a small bit of reality about his military breaking into the bubble in which he and so many of the oligarchia live, but I wouldn’t count on it. I suspect it is more from pressure from fellow oligarchs who realize a nuclear war would be bad for business and that while they don’t mind others dying for the Rodina, they object to the fact that they would die.

The layered response discussed means, however, that those evil Ukrainian civilians are going to get what he thinks they deserve as often as possible. Setbacks, defeats, anything happening on territory that he even faintly imagines might have belonged to Russia at some time in another reality means attacks on civilian targets.

As he steps up the escalation, however, it also increases the chances that we might see the use of non-nuclear special weapons. For all that the U.S. has equated use of such as being the same as the use of a nuke, reality is that we have never responded as such when they have been used previously. So, Vladimir is quite likely to consider such use on that basis, and to react badly if we do suddenly decide to enforce our convention. He will pitch a public tantrum no matter what, that’s a given.

Vladimir could decide to do a demonstration, as it were. Sal, aka CDR Salamander, has a very interesting take on such. Back in the days of extensive testing of systems and weapons, the goal (on our side) was to have at least 80 percent of the systems and weapons work if the button(s) were pushed. Right now, I’m wondering if even 20 percent would work on any side. No, I really don’t want to find out but Sal’s take is a good one.

There have been a number of highly-realistic wargames done where a tactical nuke was used. I would feel much better if anyone could name one where it did not end up going strategic. Yes, a number of limited scenarios (and extremely unrealistic larger games) have avoided it. Just not the ones based on reality. With calm, competent, stable, and intelligent leadership, I think it can be avoided. With the Regency, Vladimir, Xi, Macaroon, et al, well, we may be having to pin our hope on ol’ 20 percent (or less).

As scary as that is, let me give you something else to think about. By luck we avoid the use of a nuclear weapon by anyone for any reason. The fact is, we can’t give in to such blackmail, otherwise the use of such will never end. Sanity would be for everyone to realize that, and step back. Yet, Vladimir is facing a humiliating defeat not just for himself, but for the dream of Russkiy Mir. If he can’t have the Ukraine, no one will.

The last cruise missiles go in, carrying conventional warheads. They hit at every nuclear power plant in the Ukraine. The goal is not to hit the reactors themselves, but to take out power and control. The idea being to create a situation at each that makes Chernobyl look like nothing. Hit Chernobyl to damage the shield. Vladimir seems to have already hinted at this once, and it is not something I would put past him. Particularly since he’s been playing that very game at Zaporizhia for weeks now. In fact, I would expect a massive maskirova based on what he’s been doing there to go with it, to try to shift the blame elsewhere. How would we react to that?

What can we do? Two things. First, pray. I mean that very sincerely. Second, prepare. It’s going to be a long nasty winter around the world, no matter what happens, so if you haven’t gotten into practical preparedness now is a good time. If you aren’t familiar with preparedness or my version of practical preparedness, start here and work forward. While the potential number of disasters is infinity-minus-2, there are only three things that can be damaged and that makes planning and preparations much easier. Even if we avoid any form of nuclear incident in or because of the Ukraine, being prepared is likely to help make this winter easier.

Meantime, I don’t expect things to go ballistic in the next few hours. In fact, with what Vladimir said today, I see some breathing room as it were. Possibly several weeks worth. I think before we get to any form of go/nogo situation, we will see a number of things happen.

First, I expect to see Belarus invade the Ukraine along with Russian troops. This week or next week at the latest. Vladimir desperately needs that second front to draw troops away from the east and south. There are a number of reasons for Lukashenko to join in, including his own ambitions. Ed Morrissey has his take up at Hot Air. I will note that Lukashenko has cultivated a bumbling, country bumpkin image with Russian media and leadership, and an amazing number of them seem to be stupid enough to buy it. He’s used that image to stick a finger in Vladimir’s eye before and get away with it. He’s joining in, but don’t expect slavish devotion as his Number 1 is not Vladimir or his goals. Oh, and I think his birthday gift of a tractor to Vladimir was very well played. ISW does not agree with me on this, and I hope they are right and I’m wrong.

Second, I expect to see Russia lose more ground in the east and south. How much is going to be the question. Vladimir will be looking for any chance to claim that something was done on Russian territory so he can hurt more civilians, so expect to see the Ukrainians fight smart.

Third, I would expect to see MOPP gear show up for Russian/Wagner troops. Open question for any OSINT who read this: is anyone seeing any MOPP gear with any Russian troops anywhere? Heck, is anyone seeing any MOPP gear anywhere? Right now, the Russians don’t seem to be able to supply uniforms, cold or wet weather gear, or much of anything else. Even with the Russian attitude towards the life of the troops (eh, we can get more), you are likely to get squeamish commanders who are going to balk at using any special weapon if it’s going to kill more of their troops than the enemy. So, I would expect to see at least some attempt to protect the Russian troops first.

Fourth, I would expect to see several levels of escalation first. After all, Vladimir wants to make the case that he tried everything else first. That it also allows him to study the board and see if his threats are having the intended effect is important too.

So, no boom today. Not seeing it tomorrow either. The Day After? We will see.

*****

PayPal

Yes, PayPal is gone and I am in search of another service for donations. I want one that actually is focused on providing service, not servicing people with politics and totalitarianism. As soon as I find such, I will put a link up in The Bard’s Jar.

I suppose it could be argued that deliberation and patience are in order, given that using PayPal has helped me survive financially after getting hit by lightning. Many of you have shown me the extraordinary kindness of sending me gifts via PayPal that have allowed me to eat, pay bills, move my hosting, and more. I am now limited to just the fundraiser, until I can find a replacement. So be it. I would rather risk missing a bill than to continue to use them. I would rather live in my car under an underpass somewhere than give those authoritarian goons a single dime more.

By the way, if you sincerely believe the statement they have issued walking back their draconian policy: Do I Have A Deal For You! Bridge. Guaranteed moneymaker. Cash Only.

The only reason they have backed down is the lights being shined on them and the number of people closing their accounts. More need to cancel. More lights need to be shined. Because unless that happens, anyone want to start a pool on how long it is before they try this crap again? Social credit systems are all the rage in China and with the WEF crowd, but have place in a free society. Anyone pushing such is in desperate need of a tar and feather spa day.

And, that is exactly what PayPal was doing: trying to bring a social credit system to the United States. I’m doing what I can by closing my account, a process they apparently have decided to make as difficult as they can. I hope others join me, as until PayPal is in the grave with a wooden stake through it’s heart and a sharp blade over its neck like that “vampire” corpse they just found in Europe, the danger remains. As I said above, they will try this crap again.

So, let them know what you think with your wallet. Take your business elsewhere. Shine a light and be sure to note the regulatory environment they have. The more of us who do that, the better. For it is time to raze and salt the ground so they nor anyone else is foolish enough to try to do this ever again.

*****