The Laughing Wolf – Page 79 – Commentary, Punditry, and More

Asymmetrical Musings 3

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Welcome to another meeting of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. In this post and this post, we’ve begun touching on some of the lessons learned about asymmetrical and irregular warfare coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. Today, I want to take a look at the somewhat touchy area of sabotage and/or small unit operations.

I say somewhat touchy because when it comes to sabotage, neither side particularly wants to say too much. For the occupier/oppressor, claiming or admitting sabotage has some very serious downsides. For one thing, it lets everyone know the area is not under control, and that those opposing the invasion/occupation are effectively fighting against such. For the invaded/occupied, you run the risk of giving away techniques, people, and more if you admit to it, worse yet if you brag about it. Which is why you see a lot of implication that something was sabotage (or a small unit strike) by one side and the other side saying yep sure was something with the implication they may (or may not) have been behind it.

Look at Vladimir’s bridge for an example. Sabotage? Small unit attack? About everything has been hinted at in terms of how it was done, with the Russians torn between claiming sabotage (truck full of explosives that they missed on inspection) or small unit attack (water-based drone or guided munition from nearby small unit). The Ukrainians are being very cagey about it, pretty much saying we did it even while neither confirming or denying they did it. It’s a dance of psy-ops and politics for the leadership on each side. For those in any occupied area, it’s pretty much pure psy-ops and operations.

For the occupied, it’s finding ways large and small to hurt the occupier. Big and showy is great for morale, but never forget that nibbling away at the edges can work wonders too. Food, as discussed the other day, is but one means of hitting at the occupier.

Water systems are a good one. While contaminating the water supply is an option, the harder thing to prevent is damage to the delivery systems (and boy can you get creative with just a few things from the home supply or hardware store. Hot water is needed for multiple things, from dishes and washing clothes to bathing. Industrial boilers and heaters are simple on one level, and incredibly complex on others. Pity when critical components fail or go missing, especially when it is hard to get spares. Just even switching hot for cold has a psychological effect, especially if combined with a host of other ‘nuisance’ things going on.

Electrical? Even better. It’s amazing how many complexes and facilities depend on two or three large transformers for primary power. Transformers that are in the open, depend on oil and other fluid inside to function, and have some control electronics nearby. Industrial acid thrown or sprayed on them might not be detected immediately, and while it takes time, that can be a good thing. Snipers potting them so that oil leaks or other damage is done is another. Heck, a satchel charge or three tossed into the transformer compound will do the trick too. Thing is, no matter how direct or creative you get, those types of transformers are expensive to replace and may take time to replace as there may not be a ready supply of replacements.

Another thought is that modern electronics (and even basic electrical appliances) don’t react well if the electricity coming in isn’t precisely the right voltage, amperage, etc. Be a shame if the controls got hacked and things got just a bit off.

HVAC systems are another option, and it is surprising how many are online or have online access. While you can take them out, consider also a period where things work too well then not well enough. Temperature, pressure, have fun. Take out the systems in their headquarters, military or civilian. Particularly if they have an underground bunker of some type, as it is going to get hot fast without ventilation and AC.

In addition, of course, are the normal targets for sabotage: rail, roads, power lines, airports, depots, etc. Pick and choose your battles for maximum damage with conserving your people as much as practical. It’s not just people getting caught and killed, it’s that even with cell structure things can happen where more than one cell or string gets rolled up and technical means exposed.

AvGas and Jet Fuel are easy to compromise, and that contamination may not show up until craft are operational. I had the fun joy joy one day of being part of an emergency grounding at Ft. Rucker because of contaminated fuel. The cows were rather bemused by our rapid appearance among them, and we sat and watched each other while waiting to get word on if it was safe for us to start back up and head in to the barn.

Which reminds me that it’s time to share a bit with you about Bryan Gibson. Bryan was a veteran, a talented artist, and had a story idea that he was playing with that involved sabotage that would be extremely effective and not easily detectible at first. Simply put, change the tolerances in the control chips (same chips run an awful lot of stuff) on any number of systems by a decimal point. Self-driving vehicles either are suddenly wildly avoiding non-existent hazards, or slamming into buildings and other vehicles. Think of all the things with electronic controls, and imagine what happens if the tolerance is off by one decimal point. BTW, people didn’t like Bryan being OPFOR either, especially after he successfully “blew up” a base operations center/command post during an exercise. God Bless my friend, you are missed.

Die Hard had a point. If somehow an airport’s systems were hacked and the decimal got moved on some of the electronic guidance systems, life would get interesting. “Landing” a hundred feet off the ground is just as bad as a landing approach for one hundred feet under the ground. Even ten feet will be interesting to bad. Much more likely to have survivors, but the aircraft and runways involved are a different matter.

Now, for those complaining that a lot of what I’m describing won’t drive out or destroy the enemy that is invading/occupying the location. By itself, no, it won’t. But, when you attack the important things, would you rather they be guarded by alert and healthy troops, or by troops who are miserable as in cold wet, tired, hungry, etc.? The nuisance operations allow a lot of opportunity to damage morale and combat effectiveness while minimizing exposure of your people and assets. It also increases the chances of success for the larger operations while again reducing some of the odds against your people.

Besides, it can make your occupier do your work for you. For example, the Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, had a lot of “bad luck” with ammunition depots. Just look at the Severomorsk Disaster, where said bad luck went on for several days. Igor (Ivan’s not bright younger brother) is prone to sneaking smokes in places he shouldn’t on a fairly regular basis it seems. Again, cold, tired, hungry, etc. troops tend not to make great judgements. Use it and exploit it.

Now, how much of this are we seeing in the Ukraine right now? Good question. The problem is that the ‘nuisance’ ops are not going to make the news. You find them in the Telegram channels and other communications back home. Are they going on? I suspect that to some extent they are. When it comes to the larger things that are happening, it’s hard to tell if it was Igor sneaking a smoke or a nice partisan/irregular or special forces operation. Which is as it should be in many respects. If you are the invaded/occupied, it’s better not to make the news and let as much as possible be put down to “bad luck.”

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

A Chili Weekend

My breakfast this morning. Plating not perfect, but I was hungry.

It’s cold, I’m dragging, so it’s time for chili. Didn’t hurt that I found some beef (steak) that had gotten lost in the freezer and needed to be used. So, seared (sorta) on the grill, and made a cowboy-style chili. Basic recipe is at the link above. Let it cook at 250 for quite a while (3pm-5am), pulled it out this morning, stirred, and had it with egg over diced avocado for breakfast.

It was a riff on a favorite Japanese breakfast, where there was smoked fish in hot rice, and they would crack an egg over the mixture. The heat and steam from the rice cooked the egg. For today, I cracked an egg into a bowl, put hot chili over it, then put some shredded cheese on top of the chili. After waiting a minute or two, stirred and put it over the avocado.

For camping, or just for fun, another way to do it is using a real mug (not some small thing), crack an egg into the bottom, put hot chili over it to about two thirds full, then put shredded cheese. Wait a couple of minutes, stir, then top with sour cream. You can use some guacamole with the sour cream even. If the egg is not cooked to your taste, nuke for a few seconds if at home.

Before I forget, two quick ways to change-up your standard chili. First, throw in an ounce or two of unsweetened dark chocolate. It adds some depth and works well with the various peppers in chili powder as well as cumin and other spices. Think how it works in a mole sauce.

The other is to add some strong black coffee. I know people who just add the ground coffee, but I prefer to go with the liquid. Again, adds to the range of flavors.

Enjoy your weekend!

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Welcome to this morning’s session of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. Yesterday, we began a look at the lessons learned about asymmetrical/irregular warfare from the Russia-Ukraine war. There are a lot of lessons, but the real trick is to break the normal cycle of fighting the last war and find the right lessons instead.

Today, we’re going to take a look on the micro scale into psy-ops and effective resistance for regular, special, and irregular forces. Some of what we’ve seen reinforces current (and historical) practice, and some shows either innovation or the direction for more innovation.

For a number of reasons, I want to start with one of my favorite stories from the early days of the war. The lady who cooked a poison dinner. Yeah, it’s been done before and if you do it, unless you want an ugly death, it’s a good idea not to stick around. In this iteration, a nice older lady cooked up a large pot of something with a large amount of poison, and served it to a few dozen Russian troops if I remember correctly.

The story may or may not be true. I have not dug into it, because it doesn’t matter as it was very effective propaganda. If it built up Ukrainian morale that’s great, but what it did do was put a strain on the invaders. Was that meal they were given (or stealing) real, or poisoned? It created uncertainty and put an extra strain on food logistics as local food could not be trusted in many areas. More on the logistics angle in a bit.

Michael Z. Williamson wrote about this in one of his stories (book?) with a number of occupying soldiers going missing and then having their dog tags show up in the food being served their fellows. Along with the psychological impact, the occupiers could no longer trust the local suppliers and had to start bringing in all food from elsewhere if I remember correctly.

A dog tag, name tape, or other ID showing up in stew, sausage, or even a bag of salad is going to have a strong effect. Never mind that it is improbable, to say the least, that such would survive the processing and cooking intact. It still will have the impact and no amount of reassurance from higher is going to be believed. Especially if it is from missing or locally buried troops.

I’ve been keeping an eye out for some other things but such rarely grabs the attention generated by HIMARS, drones, and the like. These are only going to be found as, er, grouching, in messages home or such. To damage or destroy combat readiness and effectiveness, you don’t need to kill. You just need to be bad.

For example, if there is a mess hall, switch the incoming salt and sugar. You are talking large amounts of ingredients and food, and if you put either in place of the other you’ve just rendered that food or drink inedible.

“Accidental” contamination is another way to make things bad. Years ago, we used an industrial soap to coat the outside of pots used for cooking over open fires. This made clean-up much, much, much easier. The only problem was, it took just a few grains to have everyone who ate from the contaminated pot (or whatever the contents of that pot went into) sitting/squatting wherever they could for several hours even with anti-diarrheal medicines.

Sadly, it’s not hard to contaminate food. Meat is very easy to contaminate, and salads can be a microbial delight. Unwashed hands can be almost as good as deliberate application of nasty things. Do it upline as far as you can, and it becomes safer for the person who’s doing it and harder to defeat for the occupier. In fact, I can remember a time growing up when canned items were getting recalled for botulism in much the way salads are now with E. Coli. One slip and that could become a factor again.

Contamination, poor ingredients, poor quality control, and you have bad food. One of the quickest boosts for morale in a troop is a good hot meal. Rob them of that, and you have a very unhappy troop.

It is more than just psychological. As noted with the soap above, a possibly significant number of troops now require medical attention and/or supervision, which ties up the medical staff and/or medics. Other troops and staff are tied up in the care as well, may have to pull double shifts, and you also have to start over on the food, possibly even throwing out all ingredients. Multiple blows in a potentially easy strike.

Which has made me wonder about some of the grouching on the Russian channels. Normal problems with their fracked up logistics situation? Or someone getting creative to add to those issues?

Now, another micro application of some macro information. The real trick to making life fun for any invader or occupier is to determine where they are having logistical issues, then adding to them. I think it an immutable law of war that you are always going to be short on something, often several somethings. As the defender/resistance, it behooves you to figure out what those are and making the situation worse.

Early on, it became apparent in the Ukraine that military trucks and tires for any vehicles were a major weak point. It also became clear without a lot being said that regular, special, and irregular forces were all quite cheerfully potting tires and damaging trucks beyond ready repair. When you see the Russians building up sandbags and revetments to protect the tires of vehicles, you know you have a gold target.

That’s when, if you can, you go all out. Caltrops of various sizes are fairly easy to produce even in a home shop, and since you’re not having to build them to last for decades you might even be able to 3-D print them. Who cares if they break, especially if they break apart inside a tire or body.

Heck, if you can find them, children’s jacks can be ground into something that will work on troops and civilian grade tires. Boards with nails through them work well too. Spray paint the boards and nails as appropriate, and they can be hard to detect. Police spike strips can work too.

Thing is, if you know where a patrol will be going or the advancing forces will be traveling, make it fun for them. If you have them, put out caltrops of all sizes not only on the roads, but likely areas in fields and especially in areas where troops are going to take cover from an ambush. If not a real ambush, set up booby traps to create something from which they have to maneuver or take cover. Net result, tires blown, vehicles as easier targets, and troops taken out of the fight after stepping/landing on the caltrops. Pretty much same with simple nails through boards with a bit of camo. Oh, and don’t forget to contaminate the nails, caltrops, etc. just because you care.

This year, it was tires and trucks. What will it be next year? The trick is to find out where there are logistical issues and go at it from every level. For regular forces, it might be sending some arty to a supply depot, a civilian warehouse, or wherever a supply of that unobtainium is being stored. Special forces can go after smaller concentrations or, better yet, source materials or production if within reach. Irregular forces can make them use up whatever it is. In the process, all can sap the will of the opposing/occupying troops and security, and hopefully make as many of them as possible combat ineffective in the process.

In the case of the Ukraine, troops that can’t move can’t ride to the rescue when other troops are attacked. They also go from being a potential strike force to a target. Any time and any way you can immobilize any number of troops, it’s a good thing. Remember the deliberate flooding that forced the Russians off the roads???

This winter, I’m going to be watching to see what is done to take advantage of the weather. A cold and wet troop is a miserable troop. A cold and wet troop without the proper gear or working gear is dead in a Ukrainian or Russian winter. If not dead, they are a medical case. Either way, combat ineffective. I really would not be surprised if the partisans/irregulars find some unique and innovative ways to make the winter even worse for the Russian troops.

Remember, the key is to out think the enemy, to make them react and to keep them off balance. Getting creative on the micro scale has effects far out of proportion to the size of the action.

I had thought about adding one more thing, proposed by the late Bryan Gibson, bit maybe it will fit better tomorrow or in a post on its own.

Preparedness Pays: Draft Introduction

Definitely a draft. Not happy with some words and phrasing, but it’s a start. Feel free to make suggestions but remember it’s the introduction, not the book. Details come later. Unless it’s a detail that will hook a reader. 🙂

Into every life some rain must fall. True, but there is no reason real or metaphorical rain that comes with the vagaries of life should be more than a nuisance. With a bit of preparation, “everyday disasters” become annoyances, and true disasters become something that you can handle.

Practical preparedness is something that should be a part of your lifestyle, rather than in addition to it. In the most basic sense, it is simply making sure you have what you need and use in everyday life so that you can handle the unexpected. It is not hard or complicated, it is not time consuming, and it is not (necessarily) expensive. It’s something that you can start small and build up as you go along — unless you’ve not done anything and the emergency is upon you.

Let’s start with some basics that will be covered in more detail in the pages to follow. Unless you want to make it that way, practical preparedness is not complicated or hard. Yes, there are an almost infinite number of possible disasters and if you try to focus on them, you’re not going anywhere because you will get overwhelmed. Instead, consider the following:

At the most basic level, there are only three items that can be impacted by any disaster large or small: people, places, and things. Guess what? Within each category, there are only two or three things that can happen to each of them. That’s a lot easier to deal with than an almost infinite number of disasters.

Time consuming? No, not really, though if you get into things you can put as much time and money into it as you like. In both cases, the time and money you put into it is far less than the cost of not being prepared. If you truly do incorporate it into your lifestyle, it becomes for most days a matter of a few minutes a day.

Expensive? That depends. In terms of preparedness for day-to-day emergencies, it’s easily within most budgets as the resources needed are truly everyday things. They are things you would or should have around anyway, and most of what you are doing is changing some types and quantities. That said, the more thoroughly you prepare, the more you can spend. Nice thing is, some of those expenses might be deductible and there may be low-cost/no-cost options for some things.

The thing is, the cost of not being prepared is always higher than the cost of being prepared. It could be that not being prepared could mean being late for work or even missing work; it could mean damage to your home; or, it could mean an unplanned expense. Being prepared could mean not missing work; it might mean lower utilities for your home; or, it could mean catching a problem before it becomes a problem.

How? Well, that jug of water might let you rinse off if the water goes off as you are in the shower. It can even let you bathe at need. Meantime, it’s available for use in making coffee, cooking, watering the plants, or other day-to-day activities.

Weather proofing your home not only lowers utility costs, it protects you against a range of emergencies from insect entry to keeping fallout outside. It adds to your home’s value.

Doing routine checks of your car, household machines, furnace, and other items is always a good idea. In this case, it might mean you catch that oil leak early before it becomes a major and expensive unplanned repair.

Practical preparedness can also open the door to new hobbies and family activities, and enrich your life. It all depends on you and how you want to approach things to find what works best for you and your circumstances. There are no magic lists of products or foolproof plans here, for one-size-fits all responses never work.

What is in here is a framework for thinking, planning, and then executing what works best for you. It is about making your life better and safer.

So, put aside the television and movie stereotypes. Put aside all the concerns over complexity and expense. Take a breath, a sip of beverage of your choice, and let’s start a mental journey you may find surprisingly fun and rewarding on many different levels.

Asymmetrical Musings 1

There are many, many lessons coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. First one is, when Russia tells you that plan to annex you back into Russia, not only do you need to believe them, you need to convince everyone else in the world they mean what they say. After 2014, the Ukraine began to prepare and there was a massive change in the mindset there. That deserves a full column on its own.

Despite its losses, Russia is determined to regain its former territories and if thwarted now, they will try again later. As long as the current Russia/Russian government exists, it will keep trying. Also, per previous, if Vladimir can’t have the Ukraine now, he may well make it were no one will have it.

Now, on to this morning’s musings. Whether tube, rocket, or other, artillery has proven itself to still be the king of battle. The tank is not dead, but is going to have to continue to adapt to a rapidly changing threat environment. Infantry is not going anywhere either, though training and flexibility are going to be key.

The real key out of all of what we are seeing, however, is ingenuity and mental flexibility. This will be particularly true for anyone who finds themselves occupied, effectively occupied, or threatened with occupation by unfriendly forces be it a rapacious neighbor (cough baltic states taiwan cough) or other. Given all, if I were in such a location, I would be looking at trying to stockpile electronics, 3-D printers, and a few other things. More on that another day, but COTS can win the day.

In any war, battle, or skirmish, the party who thinks fastest laughs last. Yep, borrowed that from John Ringo, but it is true and really is the key to asymmetrical conflict. There was a Ukrainian commercial about shovels that our leadership and intel people missed, that hammered home on the need for fast thinking, innovation, and then decisive action. All based around the common shovel and use of same.

The ability to think, adapt, and overcome is essential to any war, but when you add in the need to set aside conventional thinking and operations, it puts it on a very different level. After all, your opponent may have fighters, nukes, tanks, oh my! You may have few or none. That’s when having a mind that can step outside the box means the difference between success and slavery.

Going back to this discussion of nuclear targeting, I brought up the theory of selective elimination as a bit of humor with some serious undertones. In the example used, Vladimir might not target Washington DC and various state capitals because leaving them intact would do more damage to the U.S. than nuking them. To be honest, I can make a good case for it. That’s another post for another day.

Selective elimination is a tactic useful in asymmetric warfare and long-term warfare. In simplest terms, you target the competent leadership of your enemy and leave the incompetents in place. It can be direct elimination, or it can involve denying competent leadership the chance to showcase what they can do by refusing action to them.

It also can be done by putting that competent leadership into an untenable position dictated by the enemy’s domestic politics. Gen. Cope and Preston Pans comes to mind for that. You can find a good presentation on selective elimination given in the book The Island Worlds by Eric Kotani and John Maddox Roberts. Good series by the way, fun reads.

Now, to bring what you may have thought was a non sequitur (or my lightning fuzzed short term memory issues shining through) back onto topic, think back to the very early days of the war. Think back to the Ukrainians getting inside Russian coms and playing whack-a-general. My question is, were we watching the Ukrainians play a variant of the selective elimination process?

Note that of the ones that got a lot of coverage, the ones killed were those who were out trying to rally and lead their troops. That in and of itself speaks to professionalism if not competence. How many leaders at various levels were recalled, replaced, etc. because they could not successfully engage the Ukrainians.

No, selective elimination by itself won’t win a war or end an occupation. But it will make the territory that much harder to take, much less control. It is but one facet of the lynchpin that is laughing last.

Addendum: Don’t forget, leadership extends from the lowest levels on up. When occupied, look for the competent and effective leaders, officers and NCOs, from the squad on up. Eliminate enough of those rally points and it hamstrings even the most effective of generals.

Into The Light: Robert Clary

While known to many as Cpl. Lebeau on Hogan’s Heroes, Robert Clary was a multi-talented entertainer. He was also the only survivor in his family of the Holocaust, with his parents and 14 siblings dying in the camps. His life ended yesterday at 96 years of age, but his story will live on for the ages because of his efforts to share his story and bear witness to what he saw in the camps. Read a bit more a bout him and the untold story of Hogan’s Heroes. Godspeed.

Artemis

DISCLAIMER: I have worked twice as a contractor for NASA, once during the Spacelab era and then with commercial space development activities. My views are my own, and do not reflect anyone or anything else. See full disclaimer for more

My thoughts on Artemis and the new Space Launch System (SLS) are mixed. I am glad it finally got off the ground, as it is the first “new” system NASA has developed and launched since the mid-70s. Yep, that’s right, it was then that the Shuttle/original SLS was developed. Until now, nothing made it through to launch. Of course, Artemis/SLS are Shuttle-derived technology, so it’s hard to call it truly new.

As I noted yesterday, I agree with Stephen Green that I really don’t expect to see this system really used for cargo or much of anything else. At its current rate of development and flights, I fully expect a much better and reusable commercial system (hopefully several) to be available well before it completes development.

I’m really glad to see it launch because of the secondary payloads onboard. One of those cubesats will be using a solar sail to go explore Near Earth Asteroids and rendezvous with one, which is something I think will be useful on several levels. This is a great test of solar sails and we need all the info we can get on NEAs and linking up with them for potential commercial activities. Disclaimer: I know, like, and respect the Principal Investigator, Les Johnson.

I do hope all of the mission is successful. I just don’t see the system as a viable means forward.

I need to do a post one day soon looking at some of the reasons why NASA went from being the “can do” agency to a bureaucracy that when they considered a new logo a former supervisor suggested ‘a hiney sitting on a laurel wreath.’ I also need to do a post on the elephant in the room for long-term missions in orbit or to planets: human reproduction.

More soon.

Missile, Missile, In The Air

You’re going to fall to Earth somewhere. Late yesterday, there were posts saying two Russian cruise missiles had missed a target in the Ukraine and hit Poland instead. Other than noting I really could do without Russian quality control, I joined with a few other sane people to encourage waiting, getting facts, and noting that this was a NATO Article 4 situation, not 5. Then, being so terrified by the more outrageous tweets and reports (/sarc) I went to bed.

Even before I went to bed, I was noticing amidst the many calls for NATO to take action, that some key people were being very precise with their wording. Such as “Russian made rocket” and the like. When politicians and other senior types get that precise, there is a reason.

Sure enough, this morning there is confirmation that they were not Russian cruise missiles, or even SRBMs. Instead, they were anti-aircraft missiles launched by the Ukrainians at Russian missiles. Russian built, yes; but, not Russian fired. Those pushing for a “real” war between NATO and Russia seem to be switching gears to the concept that Russia was responsible since it was their attack that resulted in the missiles being fired.

As we’ve discussed here before, back in the very early days, there are a number of people and countries who want a no-fly zone over the Ukraine. That such would guarantee an expansion of the war and pit NATO versus Russia is the goal desired by them. Some of them are former client states, who know Russia’s goals for reunification and have no desire to ever be subject to Moscow again. Hard to blame them, but let’s consider other options before starting WWIII. Others have their own reason, and a number of politicians and oligarchia around the world (including the U.S.) see a chance to get rich and continue centralizing government power off another endless war.

After all, the people most likely to die are deplorables and low-lifes anyway, not the upper-crust elite blue check/Ivy League/WEF crowd. The so-called elites want to thin those people out anyway. Nope, breaking thousands of eggs for an omelette is fine by them as none of their types will be among the eggs used.

The problem with that is, if things go the way they easily could, they may be among the first to go. Let’s face it, those big cities so favored by the so-called elites? Targets. In part because of the elites.

As I noted here and here, we are headed into far more dangerous times rather than into calmer in regards war. Throw in all the domestic and international issues and problems, and it just gets better and better (/sarc)

Yesterday provides a great example in terms of how far too many, including our leaders, really don’t understand Russia or the Russian people. No, they are not just like us but speak a different language. They have a very different history and culture that shapes their actions and reactions.

Look at the Russian reaction to the accusations they had hit Poland. As I noted elsewhere, the standard Russian reaction to anyone calling it out on anything is a combination of overly dramatic soccer player screaming like he’s being gutted by Jack the Ripper and falling to the ground when someone moves within five feet of him, and psycho Mel Gibson from Lethal Weapon. ‘Oh, oh, I’ve been attacked and I will retaliate massively. You know I will, I’m crazy, I’ve proven it, do or say anything and it’s on!’ Tip: the more they scream and threaten over an accusation, the more guilty they are.

In many respects, the best response is to respond with reason crossed with psycho Mel Gibson. The problem is, that is a fine line to walk. Especially given three key pieces of cultural baggage.

First, you have the Russian cultural inferiority complex. If you’ve not read some of work on Russians and culture by Kamil Galeev, or some of the really good history books, it can be hard to understand. Short version, they’ve always seen themselves as the downtrodden country bumpkins in comparison to other countries, particularly Germany and England. It’s why when Catherine decided to “modernize” Russia she imported Germans, made them nobles, and used the German model of government and society for Russia. It’s a factor in German/Russian relations to this day.

Second, you have another layer of cultural inferiority that comes from Communism. Communism was constantly playing catch-up with the rest of the world in terms of products, technology, science, and pretty much anything else because Communism/Socialism sucks and destroys creativity, productivity, and all else that is good including lives.

Third, you have Rus/Slav paranoia, which is raised up into an art form all its own. Yes, they have been attacked many times. Sometimes in response to their actions, as the neighbors get a bit peeved when you invade, rape, and pillage over the centuries with gleeful abandon. Anyway, the various invasions led to the whole concept of controlling the passes to prevent any attacks (or retaliation). It also led to massive paranoia that makes me look like Captain Whatever. That paranoia and equating retaliation with attack really shines at times like this.

All of this is why Russia immediately claimed any accusation they were responsible in any way, shape, or form was a provocation (attack). They are always the victim in their own mind. A “victim” that increasingly only has limited cards to play. Again, we are headed into far more interesting times right now.

While I suspect far too many leaders and so-called elites don’t have a clue about history and culture, others do. Others who have played this incident for all they are worth to expand the war. They are the most dangerous, as they know they are playing with nuclear fire, and don’t care.

So, where are we? Article 4 is off the table for now, though NATO will discuss/is discussing the situation at its scheduled meeting. Vladimir will make hay off the accusations with the internal audience, which is the only one he truly cares about and it may indeed help him with it. Those pushing for a “real” war could sadly make some headway.

My take is: treat any and all reports as unconfirmed to start. Things can move too fast in situations like this for the 48-hour rule, but sit back, listen, and check trusted sources. Do not pour gasoline on any fires. Also, make note of who clickbaits and posts wildly. They, like sources that headline most posts as BREAKING NEWS and such, are not to be trusted.

Before I forget, my title and opening line are a play on a poem in Mad magazine many years (decades, sigh) back. It was an ode to NASA that had me rolling. Not going to post the whole thing, but I still remember and love the lines: “We shot a rocket into space, we fear it fell to Earth someplace. Though we were aiming for the moon, Red China says we hit Kowloon.” The ending was “…and all our space probe expertise, found nothing but enraged Chinese.” And, yes, it does play off the old poem about shooting an arrow into the air. Back in the day, Mad made full use of the classics and was an amazingly fun read.

A Tuesday Omnibus

Between choppy internet access (hopefully new router here soon) and choppy events, I think it best to do a quick omnibus post that covers some highlights. Some of these may get done in more detail here soon.

First, Russia is NOT done in Ukraine even with the losses. The people who are saying that Vladimir has no choice, call it a day, and other hopeful things are making two basic mistakes. One, they fail to get that this is all based on domestic Russian politics; and, that they do politics differently.

Right now, the spin seems to be that the military screwed the pooch and all the problems come from that and not the corruption of the oligarchia. Further, that the political leaders were not aware of all the problems that existed as they weren’t properly informed. Which is saying by strong implication that Vladimir and others were lied to rather than they made mistakes.

If you think the media narratives here are bad, you should see what goes on in Russia. For all that there is still a lot of cynicism at the media left over from Soviet days, the Russian population has been fed a massive amount of propaganda and manipulation for the last 20 years. The populace may be starting to figure out that bad things are happening, but it truly is not yet common knowledge. Add in the new draconian punishments for disrespecting the military and the like, and yes they can keep controlling the narrative for a far longer time than many believe.

Which means we are truly starting to hit critical times. As the political situation becomes more dire because the military situation continues to crumble, the chances go up for things to escalate and or get out of control. Things are going to get more dicey, not better. Hang on, and seriously pray.

Also, do check out Ed at Hot Air in regards the dumbest “question” so far from CNN, along with some good and important questions about our intelligence community. Well worth a read.

I will also offer my sympathies to the family of Ed Lambert, and highly urge you to read Stephen Green’s excellent tribute to the man. Godspeed Ed.

I also have to agree with Stephen on this. I hope Artemis I makes it into space safely, not the least as I know someone who has a payload on it. But, again, it is still mid-70s tech and the last gasp of the old space job distribution system. I don’t see the new SLS (keep in mind, Shuttle was also the first SLS) carrying cargo to orbit.

Finally, I want to get back to working on the book Preparedness Pays and using that for a series of posts here. Since I now have a number of readers who are interested in practical preparedness and more, seems to be the right thing to do. Originally, I was going to use all the “correct” terminology and such to increase the possibility of some outreach (and sales) to official and academic disaster preparedness/emergency management operations.

Thing is, I’ve been a small part of those efforts before. When it comes to local, there are some great people and operations out there. I’m thinking that the book needs to speak to the average person, and not to “the experts” in DC and academia. So, instead of people, infrastructure, and resources, plan to go with people, places, and things.

As I’ve said a time or hundred on here before, there are infinity-minus-2 potential disasters out there. What matters is that there are only three things that can be damaged: people, places, and things. There are only three things that can happen to people: loss of resources, physical harm, and fiscal harm. Places basically have only two options: physical damage and loss of resources. Things boils down to: loss, damage, shortage. Not quite a 3×3 matrix, but you’ve gone from infinity-minus-2 to effectively 3 points each for planning. Simplifies things nicely.

A lot has changed since my article on disaster preparedness appeared in IEEE Spectrum a few decades back. There I looked at about five things, three works much better. Once you quit trying to play guess-the-disaster, that’s when good things start to happen in terms of real practical preparedness.

More soon!

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Also, If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog.

Pro Tip On Airpots

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Edited to add information

That I should have listened to. Back about three years ago, I bought an airpot coffee dispenser. Yeah, I’m one of “those types” who hand grinds each morning, uses a French Press and distilled water, puts in a pinch of smoked salt, and used to time things very precisely. These days, given the short-term memory issues, I’m a lot more flexible even with a timer, and it is fun to explore how flavors change with time.

Anyway, the air pot was looking a bit grody inside (and out thanks to the local water that is a liquid state of limestone) so I decided to clean it. I avoid soap on most things involved with my coffee because the surfactants in modern dish soap can be a pain to deal with. The directions actually say not to use soap inside, but to use some bleach water in it once a month. Three years, one month, whats the difference?

Turns out, I’m going to make a note on the calendar to start doing it once a month. I suspect a lot of it is the plumbing that got cleaned out good and not the lining, but yes there is a difference in taste and looks.

Oh, by the way, while it is something I’ve seen mostly in Navy types, if you really want to make friends and be appreciated by senior NCOs and Navy Chiefs, wash their coffee mugs for them (those not welded onto hands that is). Or even just rinse them good. You will be amazed at the response.

On a more serious note, one of the best ways to clean a regular coffee pot is to do like good restaurants and coffee shops: ice and salt. Lots of both, swirl around, and you will be surprised at how fast it cleans the inside and you don’t have to worry about any soap being left inside. Hard water? Add vinegar to the mix. It is a good thing to run vinegar through a coffee machine in hard water areas if not using distilled water, cleans and disinfects at the same time.

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.