Thank You, More Soon

I am behind on thank you’s and will be working on them as quickly as I can. While there are still some issues “under the hood” I am — unlike Dreamhost — getting rapid assistance, good help, and more. I hope you are seeing some of the speed and reliability improvements I’m seeing.

Tomorrow may be a very lite day. I have the fun joys of multiple fasting blood draws in the morning, which has a tendency to mess up my day. At least the locations are not too far from each other…

I also have to admit that waking up to news of Sunny’s death was a heck of a kick Saturday morning. I was afraid it was coming, but you still hope…

More soon, and thank you all again so much.

UPDATE: Looks like the “under the hood” issues are fixed and I’m getting all the data I’m supposed to. Feels almost like one of those moments on Star Trek where the mains and everything else come back on line at the crucial moment. 🙂 Again, thank you all so much for making this happen!! That said, if you see a problem, let me know so we can get it fixed.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Into The Light: Sunny Cone

This weekend, my friend and brother from another mother, John Leonard (Sunny) Cone, Jr. passed away. For all that I had hoped there would be more time, it was not unexpected. Sunny knew his time was likely short, but swore those that knew to secrecy as he didn’t want people to worry.

That, and a dedication to helping his friends, were Sunny in a nutshell. We first met in kindergarten, then came together again in grade school and high school. He was everything this introvert was not: outgoing, sociable, mischievous, with a ready wit. Even then, he looked after his friends and those he “adopted” for lack of a better word. He was a preacher’s son, but his wild was tempered and any shenanigans he or any of us together may have gotten up to were never harmful.

To this day I still laugh every time I think about him serenading our 8th grade biology teacher (and the class) with the tune ‘I believe in sphericals’ sung to the tune of “I believe in miracles (you sexy thing you).” His humor, and he himself, were delightfully irrepressible. At least to us, his classmates. I’m not prepared to swear the teachers always agreed with that.

He also never hesitated to, metaphorically at least, kick our ass if he felt we needed it. Get up, get going, the future is up to you and glorious if you move, move, move. Pretty good about taking it too, when needed.

Life put us on different paths, but brought us back together every now and then. In recent times, we both had some changes in fortune and health. Sunny, sadly, lost his first wife unexpectedly. He was then blessed to meet Monica and marry her, and she was by his side high or low until the end. Like me, he had some memory issues though his were caused by some falls. He had other things crop up, and we encouraged each other and did what we could for each other.

Typical Sunny, even as things were grim he was looking for ways not just to get back on his feet, but to help take others along as well. He thought he had an angle I could do even with my memory issues. Sadly, it was not to be as he recently took a turn for the worse then passed. There will be a celebration of life in November, and I’m going to do what I can to be there. Meantime, one of his college friends has started a GoFundMe to help Monica with medical and other expenses.

Godspeed my friend. May God wrap you in his light and love brother. May your light and love join with his and shine down on Monica and those you leave behind.

I would end by saying ‘until Valhalla’ but if I did, Sunny would find a way to greet me on the other side wearing a cheesy Viking horn hat playing a kazoo instead of blowing a horn. Guaranteed.

Tap, Tap

Okay, maybe this time we are on. 🙂

First up, thank you all! Your kind gifts have just made some really great things happen.

Yes, the monthly bills are covered. Even better, we now have a new host, Nexcess (part of Liquid Web), and so far I am extremely pleased with them. I had actually been looking at a different hosting provider who talked themselves out of the gig. I had used them once before, and was reminded why I left them (snotty responses and slow service). So far, I’ve had extremely good and fast customer service, issues are resolved while I am on with them, and I think the most we have spent working any issue was less than ten minutes. If they can handle the traffic, all is good.

While it ended up costing more, it’s been worth it for the service and the huge increase in speed I’m seeing. I did go over the budget I set, but again appears to be worth it, and I’m paid up for a full year. They have a 30-day guarantee, so let me know of any issues you see, and hopefully we will get an Instalanche in that time to truly test the system.

I’ve put the focus on the blog, and dropped hosting for my photography/professional site. Which has also dropped an e-mail addy, possibly two. Not too worried about that for now, site needed to be re-done anyway. 🙂

I also, thanks to your help, do have the new shoes I so desperately needed. I am walking for exercise and more, and while I hit a personal best of 7.48 miles the other day (best since being hit by lightning), I also had problems of which blisters were the least. So, I went shopping for new shoes. I hit the running store, the zebra store, and more. The running store used the super-scanner and every effort to get e-mail, upgrade, upsell, etc. The zebra store ignored me, and when queried said they didn’t have my brand in stock despite their own site saying they did. The other stores, well, they had limited stock and proud-of-this prices.

Something told me to check out Stout’s southside location (oldest shoe store in America according to them). Walked in, Ally (sp?) looked at my shoes, recognized the model, recognized that there have apparently been some significant upgrades in the four years (I think) since I bought them, asked me about use and other factors, discussed budget, and then measured both feet mechanically. A few moments later, two sets of shoes (one my brand one another) were out, we tried, I stayed with my brand, and stayed within the budget I had set. The difference in the skill level, customer service, and product knowledge was amazing. Highly recommend them. Oh, and if we do need to do extra orthotics to handle where the lightning exited my body through the ball of my foot, they can handle that in several ways, including 3-D printing. Nice. Feels weird having all the support…

And, that is true here too. Thank you so much! You have kept me going in this crazy year plus since getting hit by lightning. Your gifts have kept me afloat financially and are letting me work on trying to get moved. Your prayers have sustained me. Your kind comments and interesting responses have added to the food for thought here nicely. I can’t say thank you enough, and right now pushing to get some cushion to put towards moving. The problem is just getting enough at one time and in one place to get me out there. Working on it, and looking at ways to get creative so as to sidestep some issues and get on with it.

Thank you so much! Sound off if you see any hosting issues, and do sound off if you see speed and other improvements. Good with the bad. Now, to write something worthy of a link at Instapundit and see how they handle that. 🙂

Onwards!

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear war! Invasion! Tornados! Earthquakes! Floods! One of Vladimir’s farts being mistaken as the start of a chemical warfare attack!

Honestly, it really doesn’t matter. The number of disasters that can befall us is an infinity-minus-one situation. There are that many potential disasters out there, though since SMOD has repeatedly failed of it’s campaign promises I’m starting to rule it out (infinity-minus-two?).

What matters is that no matter the cause, there are only three things that can be harmed: people, places, and things. Within that, there are basically only three types of damage to each. The only thing that a nuclear attack does is add radiation to the mix even though it increases blast damage, risk of catastrophic fires, etc. Guess what, you are going to have the latter part in conventional operations (Dresden anyone?).

Heck, come to think of it, it doesn’t have to be an exchange of atomic weapons that creates the problems. Let’s say that instead of any sort of leader who wants to put his country ahead, Vladimir truly is the pissy little bitch his enemies claim he is. In which case he engineers the worst possible “melt down” at the largest nuclear plant in Europe just because he suffered a military defeat.

In a nuclear event, you are going to have the same decision matrices: stay/go, go/where, how/why. The complicating factor will be the ionizing radiation.

This is one of the few times where I think purchasing specialized gear is warranted. In fact, what I would regard as basics are some form of geiger counter and some dosimeters. If you have them, it’s going to make a lot of decisions easier, and possibly smarter (i.e. move away from the worst of the fallout, not accidentally into it). It’s also when full-face respirators or gas masks are going to come in handy.

The initial burst of radiation from the bomb? Best bet is to be below ground. Fact is, even in those zones of total de-struc-tion that people cry about, you are going to have survivors. Those below ground, in vaults, or just in well-built structures that provide protection. Long-term survival depends on being able to get out, and not having gotten what’s called an LD50 dose of ionizing radiation from the bomb, or pick up same from the fallout. Worse yet, you don’t want to breathe in that dust, as then it’s inside you emitting.

Push comes to shove, even a couple of layers of good t-shirt are better than nothing. Cover your mouth and nose, then work to get out. If you can get layers on, do so and cover as much of your body as you can in multiple layers. Remember, alpha and beta are stopped/reduced by those layers. Also, more importantly, that dust and other particles that land on you, you can get rid of up to 90 percent of it simply by taking off the outer layer later. Layer up, get out, and head away from whichever way the wind is blowing, as where it is blowing is going to be hot. If you can find shelter in a safe location, do so.

If you are outside of the impact zone, what you do is going to be based on a number of factors. If the structure you are in is not damaged, or not heavily damaged, unless you are directly under the path of the fallout, stay put may be the best option. Even if under, you may well be safer staying and waiting a few days. Again, stay/go is going to depend on the levels of radiation; your ability to shield against it and to filter out the fallout so that it doesn’t get in, and worse yet, into you. It’s going to depend on planning, luck, and a bit more.

If you have to go, the questions then become where, why, and how. In the 101-course, I talked a bit about options for staying, and for going. Maybe tomorrow we will get a bit deeper into that, but today I’m not feeling great and am going to call this a bit sooner than planned.

Oh, if the nuclear plant does melt down, the largest impacts will be on the Ukraine, Europe/Scandinavia, and Russia itself. The impact to the rest of the world will be measurable but despite a lot of fear-mongering to come, negligible.

Oh, and if anyone wants to buy me a geiger counter and some dosimeters, drop me a line. I don’t do Amazon for anything anymore, but might make an exception in this case.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Ave Bezos

For those coming in from Instapundit, thank you for your patience! Yes, I’m as tired of this as you are, probably more. If people hit the tip jar in the upper right, will switch ASAP. Right now, just need the funds (app. $150) and I will get a new host. Cheerfully even.

This morning, I come not to bury Bezos and Blue Origin, nor to praise them. For that matter, I am not here to dance on the inevitable launch failure. Instead, I come here to tell them, and Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic, a simple yet profound message: You are not fucking up enough.

In the process, you are not just hurting commercial launch development, you are deliberately ceding ground to those who want to see commercial launch hampered or eliminated. You are playing into those who are going to cite any form of launch or operational failure as a sign that commercial isn’t safe and we need to go back to the comfortable jobs in specific districts way of life that was/is NASA, who hasn’t developed and successfully launched a new system since the mid-70s (and what exactly do you think Artemis is in tech terms???).

There are days I wonder if the old concept of the Greeks that the seeds of downfall are planted in the great to keep them from becoming a threat to the gods isn’t a thing, and Elon’s ability to needlessly make enemies of those who should be his allies isn’t a manifestation of that. That aside, Elon stood things on their head in ways long needed, and pushed.

He tested to failure, then beyond failure, and out of that have come systems that have absolutely amazing reliability and safety records. Compare SpaceX not just to the early days of rocketry, but the early days of aviation. The net result in some ways makes the early days of aviation seem like a turtle’s pace rather than the blinding journey that took us from first flight, to the jet, and to the moon in well under a century.

Push/refine, push/refine, push-harder/refine-even-more is the mantra of people who want not just to get things done, but reach new levels of achievement as fast as possible. Today, as Glenn frequently notes at Instapundit, the real story oft buried is how routine the launch business has become.

Which is a danger on two different levels.

First, for all intents and purposes, commercial launch is SpaceX and Elon. ULA, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, any others out there are not up to the task. Yet.

ULA is the old crony space program of defense contractors, contracts that put jobs in the right districts, etc. It can’t match the frequency, reliability, and — most of all — the reusability of SpaceX which translates into lower cost per pound to orbit. It is a best a niche market at this point.

Blue Origin comes across as Bezos having innovated once but now looking to take part in a more business-as-usual approach with government contracts and eventually getting around to real production and maybe doing something beyond sub-orbital eventually. If he and his team were as good at producing schematics, parts, and engines contracted for since 2016 instead of lawsuits to try to slow Elon and others down, we’d have a real space race on our hands.

Branson and Virgin Galactic come across as him treating this as another airline venture. Airlines let others innovate and develop aircraft, then buy them for use. Having bought the aircraft maker, Branson finds himself in the unfamiliar position of needing to be an engineering, not business, innovator. Again, no real push to do anything yet beyond suborbital, let’s see what Bezos or someone else does first then add it to the destination/itinerary list.

Sadly, there are no other truly viable launch operations — yet. I do wish XCOR and some of the others had made it. Aleta, you are missed. There are rumors of some up-and-comers, and I hope they blow the doors off the original three just because.

Second, it is a danger because there are those who hate commercial launch with a passion. First, it means there is no longer a governmental monopoly on launch and operations in space. Second, it means that a number of carefully tilled and filled pots have been knocked over. Just as there is a core group that waits to jump on any aviation accident or tragedy to call for more regulation and control (despite the massive amounts already in place), there are those salivating over the prospect of something going wrong on a commercial launch.

Some are already “noting with alarm” what happened yesterday with Blue Origin. The perfect safety crowd is all over anything that gives them more control and lets them rake some off for themselves. Fact is, from what I can see, Blue Origin did well. The emergency systems not only engaged, but got the capsule away and safely back to ground. Yeah, it’s an oops but guess what: it’s early days yet and we still have a lot to learn. Hopefully, Blue Origin got enough data (hint, quality and quantity of data is a big reason to test extensively on the ground, say to failure) to figure out the issue and improve the system.

Because just like aviation, the idea is to continuously improve. The early days of aviation were nasty in terms of crashes and tragedies. Thing is, we learned, we innovated, and today aviation has a safety record to be envied. My hope is that we can and will avoid some of the worst of the early days of aviation, and jump-start things on a much, much higher level.

In short, there are going to be accidents and there are going to be special interests that try to exploit them. The thing we need to stress is that we need to learn from those and use that to make things even better and safer. Right now, on some levels, the public has an unrealistic idea of the reliability and safety of commercial spaceflight. Elon and the amazing team at SpaceX are, in some ways, making it look way too easy when it’s not.

That’s why Bezos and Branson need to get it together and fail a bit more in ground-based testing and development. They need to push and push hard, as success in space doesn’t come from being comfortable. It comes from leaving all comfort zones, from failures (even spectacular ones a la SpaceX), and yet more failures that eventually take you to real innovation, reliability, and smooth operations.

The choice is there. The one thing I will guarantee however, is that if you don’t do it, one day soon some upstart that is willing to fail is going to come blowing past you and give Elon a good run for his money. That’s what we need, as it will open the doors to space, and help send us to the stars.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

An Update

The other day, I posted a plea for assistance, and I want to say thanks to all who responded! Today, I have a brag and a minor update to that article.

The brag is simple: Saturday saw me take a 7.48 mile walk, a personal best since I got hit by lightning. Really enjoyed getting out, stretching the legs, and pushing the cardiac recovery. Glad I did it when I did, as it has been a bit soggy since then.

Which is letting the feet feel better. Definitely moving shoes up the priority list, as Saturday’s walk left me not only tired and sore, but with blisters on my feet. Knew they needed replacement, but didn’t realize how bad they had gotten. Can’t complain, got 3+ years out of them of almost constant wear. Just hope the next pair don’t cost too much more and will last about the same.

Nuclear 201: Radiation

For those who have persevered and gotten through from Instapundit and/or elsewhere: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’ve chosen a new hosting provider and once bills are paid any gifts via the tip jar or fundraiser will go towards the move. Getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some.

Back in the day when I taught basic science at a small college part time, I would walk into class the day of the lecture on radiation holding a “device” in one hand and announcing that radiation had been detected. I would then reveal the device to be a radio, and use that as the launching point for the lesson. Today, were I to do that I would probably be met with absolute panic instead of eye rolls.

The fact is, we are surrounded by radiation pretty much every moment of every day. Light, radio waves, and other beneficial delights enrich our lives. Radiation, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. I’m going to skip the part of the lesson on the electromagnetic spectrum and get to the meat of today’s lesson.

The type of radiation you really need to be concerned about is ionizing radiation. That’s the nasty stuff that can damage the body and/or kill you. As always, this is a 201-level course and not a 500 or higher physics course.

Ionizing radiation gets its name because the subatomic particle or electromagnetic wave in question can strip electrons from a stable bond or state. By doing so, it converts items into ions (an atom or atoms that have gained or lost electrons), hence the name ionizing radiation. As with other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, some types of ionizing radiation can have beneficial uses (X-rays for example) when applied in a controlled/limited amount. It’s when the dosage and type of ionizing radiation is not controlled that things get interesting.

Most texts, especially lower-level texts, break ionizing radiation down into three types: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Gamma is in many ways a “catch all” as neutrons, X-rays, and even cosmic radiation fall into that category.

Alpha is the easiest to deal with. Basically, two neutrons and two protons bound together, though that’s really not critical info for this lesson. The fact is, a piece of paper can stop alpha radiation. Most clothing blocks it, and the skin has as one of its functions stopping alpha radiation. It is, however, strongly ionizing.

Beta radiation is basically an electron or positron moving at high speed. It is actually less ionizing that Alpha, though more than Gamma. A thin sheet of aluminum (note, not foil) will stop beta radiation, though it is not a good idea to use it. Fact is, some forms of beta radiation can have enough energy to create gamma radiation when they hit such a shield.

Gamma radiation is not just gamma, but also pretty much the rest of the electromagnetic spectrum. To protect against it (that which you can protect against — there are some subatomic particles out there that pass through the entire Earth basically undiminished and are a bear to detect and study) takes serious shielding, such as concrete, lead, or special materials that combine layers of shielding.

Keep in mind that we are naturally exposed to some ionizing radiation every day. The atmosphere protects us from a good bit, but if you spend a lot of time in airplanes you are getting a higher exposure than you would if you stayed on the ground. It is also in the ground and otherwise around us. That’s one reason it’s a good idea to have your basement, or even crawl space, checked in certain parts of the country. The key is limiting the exposure.

To wrap up for the day, let’s talk radioactive materials. Radioactive materials are ones that are unstable in terms of their atomic structure, and as such give off energy (heat, ionizing radiation, etc.) as they “decay” into more stable materials. Yeah, yeah, there’s a lot more to it than that, again, this is a 201-level course. Don’t tell me your primary school introductory science course included bond types, valences, and other delights, especially since you were lucky to get baking soda and vinegar right…

Radioactive elements have what is called a half-life: the amount of time it takes for one half of the material in question to go away (change into a different form). For example, tritium (critical for nuclear weapons) has a half life of 12.3 years, while cobalt-60 (used in radiotheraphy/radiation treatments) has a half life of 5.26 years. Others, however, have half lives that can be measured in thousands if not millions of years, or, in fractions of a second.

This is important for our purposes as a nuclear bomb exploding is going to interact with the atmosphere, structures, and the ground in such a way that it will effectively convert non-radioactive materials into radioactive materials. Some of these materials will have a blessedly short (though energetic) half-life. Some are going to be around for a long time to come. In addition to radioactive contamination of the blast site, the nuclear explosion (and fires that follow) are going to send this radioactive material up into the air where it will eventually fall back to Earth. This is known as fallout, and it will be a significant part of survival after a nuclear explosion.

Tomorrow I think we will get into survival, preparedness, and some of the realities of radiation exposure.

*****

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

9/11

Normally I don’t post on Sundays. Maybe one day I will get back to doing scheduled posts of photos, but it is a day of rest and more. Today, however, is a special day.

On this day, oh so many years ago now, I got to work early as was my want, got settled in, and began my morning check of the news. I was looking to see if anyone had mentioned our program or it’s commercial partners, along with other bits of news. I saw the flash of the first plane hitting, and I admit my mind jumped back to the B-25 hitting the Empire State Building. In short order, however, it was clear that this was not an accident.

I watched the second plane hit. I was on the phone to my NASA boss (veteran) telling him the United States of America was under attack even before the aftermath of the Pentagon hit the screen. I made the other calls duty required, and then, like so many, all I could do was watch. I kept my boss updated as best I could, as we all waited to see what happened.

I still get a chuckle out of one thing that happened. My NASA boss had been EWO ready back in his Air Force days, which made things easier as I could use shorthand, if you will, in talking with him. At one point, having had to go downstairs, I saw him across the lobby and let him know that the President was airborne in AF1, which was also now the National Airborne Emergency Command Post. Using shorthand, I simply let him know by using the phrase ‘the President is NEA-Capped’ which led to one other NASA person having the idea someone had gotten to the President and broken his knee cap. Clearing this up gave one and all a much needed laugh.

Then, we waited. Across the nation, burn and trauma centers stood to, and the Nightingales crouched in ready alert upon their pads. They waited, and their wait was in vain.

Then, later, I was there in NYC, after a flight that saw me teach an impromptu and off-the-books course on self-defense to the cabin crew before boarding. Funny how many of us in those days found ways (sometimes with the help of the crew) to put ourselves in places such that we could be between potential trouble and the cockpit. Locking the barn after, admittedly, but it was the mood of the moment, and people having tantrums on flights didn’t happen for a while there as fellow passengers put a stop to such immediately and, er, firmly. And, officially, nobody saw nuthin in such cases.

That first visit was officially for other things, but I spent one day in a series of interesting meetings and tours. I was at Ground Zero, and watched the searchers do their work even as the boots melted off their feet. With the fires and compression heating, in the early days they would often have to change out boots multiple times a day. The streets of lower Manhattan were still thick with the grey dust that was all that was left of the Towers and the people within them, and the smell of baked lime and burnt sweet pork still hung in the air.

I visited the ferry, and talked a bit with some of the people who got it up and running so fast. I met with leadership high and low, and even with the little men upon the stair who were not there. Got asked if I wanted to spend a little time on river patrol, which I did — like everyone else who signed up to work Ground Zero, that stayed with FDNY. Investigated a report of a body that thankfully turned out to just be a log. Still remember one of the crew pointing at the Statue of Liberty and saying to take a look while it was still there — yeah, we expected more would happen.

Over time, I think I visited every “temporary” emergency command post they had up until the current “permanent” one came online. This time, the politicians listened to them and while I’ve not been there, I was assured (with a degree of happiness I can’t truly get across) that it was nowhere near a target and done right.

I also learned about so many that day who did what they could, even at the cost of their own life. If you don’t know the story of Rick Rescorla, you should. Look it up. There’s a reason for the music above. There were more. The NYPD LT who was my guide/contact/minder that first time almost died twice that day, both times running to the sound of the drums.

Between that and some other events where I was a part of things as they unfolded, I’ve learned a lot about disaster preparedness and emergency management. I’ve even done all the coursework to be a federally-approved on-scene commander (need the practicums to finish). And I think that the current federal system is a mistake, as it is fed-way or the highway and only federally approved contractors can take part (including outside NGOs and the like). Just look at “Day Four, when the federal authorities took over ” for a clue. I guarantee you that this approach will take a minor event and turn it into a major disaster sooner, rather than later.

That story, however, is for another day. Today, sing the song of Rick Rescorla and all the others who died helping ensure others lived. Raise it to the heaven’s and let it shake the foundations of the temples of complacency and power. And remember the lesson that had they yielded to petty and bureaucratic authority, thousands more would have died in NY alone. Raise the song of all those who did perish, and those injured, that horrible day.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts (please see previous post), feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Request

If anyone is willing, I would appreciate your help as bills are coming due and I have a couple of special needs on top of them. I’m working on some things, but for now I remain afloat strictly through your kind gifts and prayers.

Yes, I do still have my routine bills. I’ve worked to eliminate as much as I can, and really have it down to about five things on a regular basis. Sadly, two of those are coming up fast.

As noted in my previous posts, I’m as fed up with my hosting provider as you are. So, I’ve been talking with some providers and have made a decision. If I can get a donation of $225 (about $150 after the processor takes its cuts), I am set to switch providers as they can get my files with or without the help of the current provider, move things over, and coach me into getting things set up. It also covers hosting for a full year, which cuts out one of the monthly bills.

Getting enough exercise has been fun. I’m trying to walk every day, weather permitting, though I can no longer afford the gas to go walk at a mall in bad weather. Good news is, found a new trail and route that kicks my 3+ mile walk up to a 6+ mile walk with an option to take it even further. Sadly, my “running” shoes are either 3 or 4 years old now, and showing it. I’m trying to come up with a total of $60 or so for some new walking shoes.

Anything that comes in over bills and these things, well, it will go to food, fuel, and getting out of here. I will note that when PayPal (tip jar above right) takes a fee, it is much less than the processor for GiveSendGo.

Thank you again for your kind gifts, prayers, and words. All are very much appreciated.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 201: Effects

For those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.

Okay, in Nuclear 101 we sort of glossed over the effects and just went with a form of “bad” to describe them. We’ve alluded to some effects in 201, but now is the time to start exploring what happens when a bomb detonates. So, today we are going to get into what happens and what it means to you.

There is a good bit of information out there, though on a personal basis I tend to avoid anything from the Union of Confused Scientists (or those that travel with them). If someone is focusing on the politics and max damage, check out another site. Also, watch for the use of the “terror terms” like ‘zone of total destruction’ and those describing massive radiation effects. Remind me and I will get more into the types of ionizing radiation (the bad stuff) next week when looking at practical preparedness. For a fictional but accurate account, see Tom Clancy’s Sum of All Fears.

If you could somehow watch the process, as the bomb detonates you would see a massive burst of radiation. While X-rays are part of the detonation cycle, what results from the reaction is a wave of neutrons. This pulse is going to fry any and all electronics nearby, including the bio-electric computer that is the human nervous system. Immediately after is a burst of heat. Well, to describe it as intense heat is a bit of understatement.

Immediately thereafter is the pressure wave. Referred to as overpressure, this blast takes the damage up and can devastate a large area. How large depends on the size and type of bomb, as well as where it detonates. More on that in a bit. Now, also depending on the type and size, you can get a preliminary vacuum effect where the blast first sucks in all the air around it, then sends it back out again with the pressure wave. Look at some of the old above-ground test footage to see that in action.

Now, along with all this, you are going to get various types of radiation spreading out as well. This is going to come, in large measure, from incomplete reactions within the bomb and the surroundings it consumes. Again, next week we will get a bit more into this and the concepts of radiation versus ionizing radiation.

I admit this is rather simplistic. Then again, this is the 201-level course and not physics 990.

What it means is that what we have to consider in planning is:

An initial wave of neutron radiation, for 201 purposes we will assign this the smallest area of effect;

An intense burst of heat, potentially several hundred million degrees, in a larger area; and,

A pressure wave that will race out and damage a significantly larger area.

Now, thanks to the heat and pressure, you are also going to have an area subject to (potentially massive) fires.

An easy way to think of it is as an onion. The core area is the initial burst of radiation. Just out from it you have the area subject to the intense heat. The next area out from that is what is damaged by the overpressure. Out from that, you have an area that between that blast of intense heat and damage short-of-massive-destruction is probably going to catch fire and burn. There is a concept known as firestorm that is really a 301- or even a 401-level course that suggests large cities are going to basically go up in flames, particularly if thermonuclear weapons are used.

Now, does this mean you can sit down to a map and plot out a uniform damage area no matter the target? No. Not only does the radius of those bits of “onion” change with the size and type of device, it also changes with the location of detonation.

If you want to cause the most damage to the widest possible area, you set your nuclear bomb to go off in the air, what is called an air burst. For each size of bomb, there is an optimum height above ground for detonation to ensure maximum damage to the largest area. This is why I went, in previous discussions, with an airburst attack on Indianapolis. Doing an airburst will do the widest possible destruction, ensuring that interstates, rail, air, etc. are taken out even as leadership and corporate leadership based downtown are destroyed as well. To be honest, my worst-case estimates of such an attack have pretty much everything within 465 as toast given the potential for fires. If Indiana is lucky, 465 may serve as a firebreak on all but the south side.

Now, let’s say that Vladimir likes High Tax Holcomb about as much as most voters, and learns that he has a bunker stocked with caviar, fois gras and champagne in the basement of the circle jerk (state government complex) so that he can ride things out in style while the peasants get what they deserve. In that case, he might use a ground-burst. In that case, the nuclear device would explode at ground level. This will maximize destruction downtown, but limit the blast zone. While downtown will be heavily damaged/destroyed, the areas out from there are not as likely to suffer blast damage and/or fires afterwards though fallout is going to be much heavier.

Now, let’s say that High Tax Holcomb’s WEF buddies chipped in and got him a deep bunker to ride out riots, revolutions, or war. In that case, Vladimir might opt for a deep-penetration vehicle which would take the bomb deep underground before detonation. Unlike an underground nuclear test, such a detonation will breach the surface. Thing is, there will be little of the traditional effects above ground, though an area (size depending on the size of the bomb, depth, etc.) is going to rise up and then subside. Overpressure and thermal damage will be minimized at the surface, though fallout could be massive depending on how much of the blast does make it out. To get an idea of what the ground will do, check this out.

Now, when you read about zones of total destruction and the like, keep in mind that all explosions, including nuclear, are peculiar beasts. Various things, including atmospheric phenomena, can alter or shape blast fronts. If you look at Hiroshima, you can see a toroid-effect around the exact center of the blast where things were heavily damaged but not completely destroyed/vaporized. Even with an airburst, structures on the ground may shield areas. As I noted earlier, I’ve seen some amazing things happen with blast fronts.

Surviving in the immediate zone of damage/destruction depends in large measure on luck, on being underground (deep even), and well protected. The closer you are to the target, the deeper you need to be. You also better be prepared to dig yourself out and get out. The further away from ground zero the better the odds of your survival.

Next week, we will start taking a look at what is needed to survive in a nuclear environment. Keep in mind that quite a lot can be done to prepare within the precepts of practical preparedness, as while there are an almost infinite number of potential disasters, there are less than five types of damage. Makes planning and preparation much, much easier.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.