The Laughing Wolf – Page 80 – Commentary, Punditry, and More

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I’ve been trying to avoid politics, at least beyond snarky names for various politicians around the world. I will cheerfully insult Winnie the Xi as fast as I will Resident Biden, Bitch McConnell, and most of the members of the American political class. I’m equal opportunity that way. Free snark and mocking for all.

In the wake of the red hole that was supposed to be a red wave (which Sarah and others, including me on Twitter, told you wasn’t going to happen), there has been the usual finger pointing and a lot of chatter about how to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Equally unsurprising is that the never-Trumpers and those who really didn’t like such a man but rode the train anyway types have declared a Trump-DeSantis fight and you must choose your side now!

No, I don’t and I’ve got a suggestion what you can do with it. You focus on this, make it the most important thing, and both conservatism and libertarianism are probably dead for our lifetimes.

This probably won’t do any good, but I’m going to try one more time to get some things across to some of those higher-level types. The theatrics of the big names are going to drown this out, and Trump saying mean things (day ending in Y) and Rod pissing his panties and flouncing to the fainting couch because someone was uncivil and has no breeding and proper manners (again, day ending in Y) get the attention.

Right now, you’ve got far bigger problems. Allow me to suggest that you read this guest post at Sarah’s place. There’s a lot in there with which I agree. I have no faith in the current system, and yes I do think there has been, is, and will be fraud. Incompetence too, but fraud as well– especially given a number of convictions for voter fraud in the last election. As Mr. Kendall pointed out, we begged you to investigate and be pro-active on securing the elections.

But, no, that would be uncivil and rude and worst of all it would have upset a lot of gravy trains that depend on the status quo. If you are interested in why many of us feel that there were things that needed investigation (and prosecution), read this post, then this post, and finally this post from Larry Correia. There is a lot more out there, but that’s a good start.

If you really want freedom, good (and limited) government, here’s a few suggestions:

First, don’t fall for and join in on the new urgent “thing” and declare your undying loyalty to it or whatever part of it is demanded. Not now, not later, as there are going to be many things as distraction.

Second, secure the vote. This really has to be done on the state (and local) level, and if you look at the states where that was done… Outside of those states, I think it may already be too late and I expect to see more Federal electioneering and attempts to force states to insecure the vote. All in the name of saving “our democracy” of course.

Personally I would love to see one day, limited/no mail, go back to absentee with valid reason, ID required, no same-day registration, LET THE MILITARY VOTE AND ACTUALLY COUNT THAT VOTE, and if I could sneak it in no straight party voting allowed. It will take good state-level leadership, with the support on the national leadership. Oh, and don’t forget, same-day vote tally. This third-world weeks-long bullshit has to go.

Third, this leads us to the need to change the leadership. Badly. Look at the many interesting decisions this cycle, some of which were an early effort to get rid of the “wrong-type” of Republicans. If it is true that the RNCC did not send a single lawyer to Arizona, Nevada, or other contested/problem areas, that stinks even worse. The Republican party needs to clean house and bring in fresh leadership. Younger and aggressive too.

Love him or hate him, Trump fought. People, not the fancy blue checks or cocktail circuit types, saw that. As polarizing as he is, he fights. It’s not a bad analogy to suggest to leadership (conservative, Republican, libertarian, other) that emulating Lincoln with Grant in regards Trump and other non-establishment types is a good idea. If they fight, that one person is worth 20 of the cocktail-circuit go-along-get-along types.

No, the never-Trumpers and those of the “If we lay back and spread our legs maybe this time we will win/enjoy it” clique are never going to be happy. They make their best money by being unhappy; and, besides, all the right people at the parties say good things about them when they whine . Ignore them. GET SOLID LEADERSHIP IN PLACE NOW, LEADERSHIP THAT WILL FIGHT FOR A SECURE VOTE.

Fourth, look at two things that were huge in this last election. Look at how many voters, particularly minority, did swing red. Look at WHY they did so, as the issues matter. You made some serious inroads, and while some of the candidates didn’t make it, you’ve got proven leadership who did fight that is now available. Hint. Hint. For once, make use of the abundance of talent that is available to you. Also, if you want to truly make a difference, keep going after schoolboards and other local elections. You can and will accomplish more in the long run if you do so.

Fifth through Eleventh, IF YOU DON’T WORK TO SECURE THE VOTE, NONE OF IT MATTERS AS YOU WILL NEVER WIN AGAIN. You can blame the base or sections of the base (as you are doing right now), third party candidates, or the excuse du jour. It’s a lie and you know it. Quit it.

Finally, in at number twelve, let Trump, DeSantis, and anyone else who wants to fight, fight. It’s called a primary for a reason. If what is going on results in one or more other strong, feisty potential candidates coming out in the process, that’s a win as far as I’m concerned. I’m going to wait and see who makes the best case to earn my vote. Hopefully, someone will. Hopefully, the vote will count.

Thus endeth today’s lesson.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Veteran’s Day 2022

To all who have served: A good and happy Veteran’s Day to you! If you know a veteran, go nod and smile, wave, thank them, or just wish them a good Veteran’s Day depending on circumstances and their desires. Today is the day to honor the living, while we can. Please do so.

And if anyone knows where Hardy is (far left in the photo), please buy him a glass of goat’s milk for me. Before him I’d never met a troop who would turn down free beer for some goat’s milk, but to each his own.

May it be a good day for each and every one of you who has served.

A Different Take On Russia

I’ve been talking with reader Bill on several topics about Russia, which are actually related. Been promising him an article or two, and it’s time to deliver. While I said it early on, it’s time to revisit what I think is in store for Russia in the near future. Absent some massive political, social, and other changes, Russia is frelled. There are several reasons for this.

First up, as I and others have discussed before, is birthrate. This article in the Moscow Times gives a good overview and is worth the read. It’s even in English so no translation needed. When you factor in ethnicity, the Rus/Slavs are being outbred by pretty much every other ethnic group, often by a significant margin. Still looking for some solid figures, but it appears that in a number of areas the Rus/Slav group is already a shrinking minority.

This is not new in many respects, as Russkiy Mir called for efforts to reverse this trend and to bring home ethnic Rus/Slav that were not currently part of Russia. It’s why the Russians are kidnapping so many Ukrainian children as they are essential to repopulation efforts.

The other key component in trying to halt the demographic slide is to change the abortion culture that gripped (grips?) Russia. While it is changing, abortion was (is?) the primary means of birth control. Given infant and maternal mortality rates, and a lack of basic reliable healthcare, it was the chosen method. In 2000, more than 2 million abortions were performed in Russia, and while numbers have significantly dropped, it is an ongoing cultural battle. See this article and this article for some additional background.

Keep in mind that most of the data/statistics shown are the official statistics of the Russian government, and may or may not accurately reflect reality. I’ve seen some other statistics out there that indicate your average Rus/Slav woman of childbearing years has had multiple abortions (unconfirmed rates of 10-20 in a lifetime), which also has a very negative affect on the ability to have children when marriage and other factors put you in a position to want children. If anyone has a source of accurate statistics on abortion by ethnic group, would love to see them.

To further complicate efforts to halt the population decline Russia has one of the worst, if not the worst, rate of spread and rate of death from AIDS/HIV. How bad is it? So bad the Russian government no longer reports the data (or they had quit the last time I checked). Major mode of spread seems to be drug use, which is also a factor I’m not going to get into too much today. Read this article, this article, and this article for more information. Again, I’ve seen some real interesting numbers, and where it appears there is widening drug (and alcohol) abuse with a corresponding spread of AIDS/HIV is in younger males in the prime years for marriage, family, etc.

Now, you also have to factor in brain drain. While the news has been focused on young men fleeing Russia to avoid getting sent to the Ukraine, brain drain is a long-term problem for Russia that seems to only be growing. It’s not just males either, but females as well. Kamil Galeev has written about this before and I commend his works on the subject to you. He’s someone I respect, and respect the thought processes, even if/when I disagree with him. Great insights on Russia, and he is a good example of the brain drain they face. Again, based on what data I can find, this is an ongoing and accelerating problem.

Russia is a resource rich country, make no mistake. It literally, however, can’t tap it’s own resources to any degree right now. Rus/Slav paranoia about foreign partnerships (and there are companies around the world who would love to to be a part of such efforts since even a small percentage of such is going to be huge) along with remnants of Soviet/Communist inferiority complex are a large part of the problem. The other problem is that developing the people-resources needed means they need smart, clever, and ambitious people who can think outside the box. Most of which are leaving Russia for better opportunities and circumstances. Under the oligarchia and current culture, there is very little for them in Russia.

In addition to a vast amount of resources, Russia also had its reputation as a top-tier military power and as a nuclear power. Yes, I said had and mean it.

I’m having one of those mornings today, so I can’t remember if it was the Institute for the Study of War (ISW on Twitter), Dmitri, or Kamil Galeev who stated in the last few days that internal Russian politics will cope with problems with the military while military defeats will result in domestic political change. I agree with the basic assessment.

For all that Russians take pride in a mighty military, being a member of the military itself has fallen out of favor. Military members are seen, effectively, as dumb, morally cripple, and about anything else a leftist has said here about our own military. Have heard that the Russian military members are a bit of a handful for local law enforcement, and may be far more involved in drug dealing, theft, and other delights than in what might be regarded as normal shenanigans for a basic troop.

For all that troops are increasingly regarded as scum by what appears to be a growing part of the population, Russians do take pride in having a mighty military that will protect them from the evil West, Nazis, and others. That can meet any challenge, defeat any enemy, and do so quickly. After all, they’ve been promised by Putin and others that the military is a priority, has the best equipment, is well trained, etc.

By opening the military to the oligarchia for looting, it is increasingly clear that the Russian military is a shell of its former self. Word is that we and others have been able to buy equipment and advanced systems to study because troops (and their families) were literally starving. The missing radios from the Russian doomsday plane should have been a bigger clue to all than it apparently was. I certainly had no idea of the extent to which the corruption had disrupted everything from uniforms to specialized gear. Cheap imported tires are the least of the problems the Russian military faces.

Right now, there are serious questions about how much of the warstock they have can even be used. Tanks and rifles are rusted to the point of being inoperative and non-repairable. Specialized gear? Look at how many years overdue the SATAN-II missile is right now, and one gets an idea of why it and other systems are being questioned. Soviet era supplies, especially on things like MOPP gear, are toast at this point.

On paper, they still have a huge military with lots of gear. I have one question on that, which is if the 20 percent ghost trooping we appeared to see early on isn’t a much higher percentage. When millions of uniforms don’t exist because of corruption, how many of the troops are really there? How many of their aircraft are truly fully serviceable?

Which is why things are about to get even more interesting for Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the only potential flash point on the Russian flanks (and within treaty). There are any number of areas that are potentially restive towards rule by Moscow, and if you think China hasn’t considered absorbing some of those resource-rich areas next to their border you are delusional. And if you think the Middle Kingdom is happy with Vladimir buying or trying to buy stocks of ammo from North Korea, I’ve got a bridge for you. North Korea has long been an area of contention between the two powers. Also, Winnie the Poo is not likely to be happy in regards Iran for that matter. China has long been expanding its influence there, using carefully metered nuclear help among other things. Now, Tehran is openly asking for advanced nuclear weapon development help as part of the deal for drones (which have far too many Western, including US, parts in them).

On top of that, you now have Japan pushing (hard by diplomatic standards) in regards the Kuril Islands. Japan has never accepted their loss, and for years has pushed on a purely diplomatic level simply because that was the only option open to them. Between the size and perceived quality of the Russian military, and it being a nuclear power, they were not stupid and so made no military move. Now, even as people start to openly debate if Russia qualifies as either a second or third tier military, who knows? I don’t expect to see Japan do something militarily aggressive but what else might they do?

Russia, as we know it, is on course to implode. Between population shrinkage, and the rapid shrinking of the ethnic Rus/Slav people, and brain drain, the current system has no chance of long-term survival. Add in everything else, and the odds go up rather dramatically on the system coming apart in the next ten to twenty years. Now, factor in military defeat in Ukraine and the impact that is going to have on populations and politics, and it means the next few years might be more interesting than any of us would like. Especially given that Russia is an unstable nuclear power to an extent that makes the old Soviet Union breaking apart seem stable by comparison.

As I pointed out yesterday, the invasion and all that is going on in Russia is based on domestic Russian politics. What I’ve outlined above are some of the factors driving those domestic politics. Dealing with the international and other issues depends on leaders outside of Russia not only understanding the domestic Russian political situation but also the cultural factors playing into it and into popular opinion within Russia. For that we have Dementia Joe and the incompetent Regency; Macron the Macaroon; the Germans; the British (who hopefully still have a decent MoD and aren’t going to replace the PM every week); and, Xi the unstable. Oh, and keep in mind that Great Leader, Khamenei (who is facing open rebellion), and a few others are fishing around in these troubled waters too. At a time where the world truly needs stable, intelligent, and competent leadership, this is what we have.

Russia is not the only country that may be frelled.

*****

Russia Update 9 Nov

There really isn’t a lot new to update. The only change from the previous is that there are more signs that Vladimir is facing some serious opposition, but nothing (yet) that could take him out of power. The jousting for position continues, and it is hard to tell what is simply securing the best position possible versus trying to get in position to make changes.

Remember, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t mean a thing. There is the St. Petersburg caveat, but…

The one thing that has come up is a reminder from Kamil Galeev that the invasion of Ukraine and all that is going on has little to do with international relations from Russia’s point of view. The invasion stems from domestic politics, not international. It’s very true, and is something to keep in mind in the days ahead as international takes are going to have to deal with domestic realities when dealing with Vladimir and Russia.

If the military situation shifts in the occupied territories, then I expect to see some more open shifts within Russian domestic politics. Absent that, I expect to see things continue to bubble away under the surface as no one yet wants to make a true public move.

I will note that Vladimir and company have continued to go low-key on the nuclear rhetoric. Not sure if this is because of internal pressures, external pressures, or that secret talks are giving him what he wants. I reiterate that giving in to nuclear blackmail will have worse long-term consequences.

Meantime, if you want a fun little read, this article on Moscow shelters is actually quite enjoyable. Don’t laugh at the fact that one former shelter is now a tourist attraction, as we’ve done the same with at least one of ours. My thanks to Robert Hopkins on Twitter for the link.

Oh, yes, no sign of shelters being stocked outside of Moscow, which seems mostly for show. Same as before. Also, yes, Stalin had the subways put deep for a reason. He also had portions made truly beautiful and while they are no longer good shelter, at least the last time I was there they were still quite beautiful.

Frankly, since our national leadership is not going to step up to the task, I wish more state and local leaders would take steps to bring their shelters back online or build new ones. The threat of nuclear issues (war, deliberate meltdown, etc.) is but one of the reasons having those shelters available is a good idea. They can be useful in a variety of non-nuclear situations as well. Having them available also serves as a deterrent to those thinking nuclear war, terrorism, etc.

*****

GO VOTE!

Voting is a right, a privilege, and a duty. Be an informed and active citizen, and vote.

I got lucky, as there was no line at my polling place when I got there. They had one earlier, and there apparently has been a good turnout, but I got in and voted with no problem. Yes, I double-checked my ballot and made sure my votes were printed out correctly.

For us, I really think the most important race is for prosecutor. Runnin’ Ryan is, I think, a Soros boy, and our crime statistics have rocketed into the stratosphere with him in office. Even the Mayor (D) didn’t want him when he was appointed (long story), and now pretty much everyone wants him gone. We may set another record for homicides this year, and I think we are already above 200 for the year. Cyndi for Indy has already been meeting with people and trying to get a handle on things so she can hit the ground running if she wins. Hope she wins, or we are going to end up making Detroit seem scenic.

Second most important race here is the Indiana Secretary of State race. I fully expect Diego to win despite being a lousy candidate, but am hoping Jeff Maurer gets ten percent of the vote (wish I thought he could win!) as that breaks open the primary ballots to something other than R and D. Yes, those charming rogues passed a law to try to keep anyone else from ever getting on a primary ballot but them. Oh, if Diego wins, fully expect him to be removed and replaced by a R picked by HighTax Holcomb and the rest of the Establishment wing of the Rs.

Really would like to see Andre Carson replaced, especially as Angela G is a great candidate! America First, immigrant, successful businesswoman, smart — just what we need. Sadly, despite a very good effort on her part, expect Andre to win in part because the Establishment R’s don’t support R candidates in Indianapolis. The rest is his base, who would vote for him even if he died a year ago — and from his performance in Congress the last few years he could have.

While I voted for those who earned my vote and were clearly the best candidate, I did skip some races where no one earned my vote. As a note for some of the candidates (mostly hyperlocal) who felt they didn’t need to tell people where they stood on issues as they were the only person on the ballot and as such you ‘had’ to vote for them: no, I don’t and no, I didn’t. As the only person on the ballot, you probably will “win” but when there is massive turnout and you only get a few votes, you might should get a clue.

I researched, I listened, I voted. I hope you will do so too.

*****

Preparedness On The Fly II: Cooking II

We’ve talked about cooking before, but the focus was more on having several alternate means of cooking available to you in an emergency. Today, thanks to some excellent comments from you, the readers, we are going to leave the comfortable space of preparedness for the less comfortable topic of survival, and cooking for same.

As we make that transition, however, a couple of things to keep in mind. If you have stayed focused not on the near infinite number of possible disasters large and small, but concentrated on the three basic types of damage, you are as set as possible for disasters large and small. You have the ability to survive the minor, and even some major short-term, disasters with style and comfort.

As part of your food preparations, just as we need essential proteins, the body also needs a few essential fats that can’t be produced in the body and come from food. It’s a good topic to research, and the good news is that you can get them via fish oil capsules, fish oils (cod liver oil was used for a reason back when), certain fish, and nuts and vegetable oils. Me, I already take the capsules and hope to stock up more here soon. Having multiple sources of same via food and supplements is a good idea.

Before I forget, if I haven’t said this before, look at having ghee, olive oil, and lard on hand. Ghee is shelf-stable until opened, and can survive a while without refrigeration at need. Olive oil is very good for you, can even be used in lamps in an emergency (yes, smokey, but…), and again does not require refrigeration. Same for lard. All have fats and more needed by the body.

Now, most disasters are temporary. That is, the damage from them to people, places, and things can be healed, repaired or replaced over time. Just look at Ian, where despite a huge amount of damage (and, yes, it will potentially take years to fix it all), major infrastructure such as bridges, roads, power, and even water were back for almost everyone in less than a month. I can’t tell you how absolutely amazing that is, and it is tribute to the county disaster preparedness offices, the utilities, and others involved.

Out of that infinity-minus-2 list of potential disasters, most qualify as temporary for degrees of temporary. You are looking at hours, maybe days, and at worst a few weeks of major disruption to power, water, and such. Again, preparedness always pays, and proper preparedness can see you and yours ride things out if not in comfort, at least avoiding major discomfort.

There are a few things, however, that are not going to be temporary. A “zombie apocalypse” or other biological emergency is one such. An asteroid of any good size striking the earth, even if not an ELE (Extinction Level Event), is not going to be temporary. A series of volcanic eruptions (never mind a supervolcano) can potentially have years of effect. Idiots disrupting fuel and fertilizer are likely to create some long-term issues. A nuclear exchange/war will cause effects that will take years from which to recover.

Another quick aside: radiation and fallout from any event, be it a bomb or someone forcing a nuclear plant into meltdown, is going to be a bear, at least initially. Fact is, the worst of fallout is likely to die down in about three weeks given the short half-lives of some of the fallout, plus the majority will be out of the air by then. That’s why the feds recommend being able to hunker down safely for three weeks. Even bomb sites will “cool” over the years, and the Trinity site is open to tourists twice a year. Radiation is dangerous, make no mistake, but preparedness pays.

The thing is, those long-term events do require a different mindset. You are going to need to think long-term on things like light, power, cooking/and heating systems, and on food. What you have is likely to have to last you a while. That’s one reason I recommend for any major disaster going to short rations while you evaluate things. For the serious ones mentioned above, it isn’t just a good idea, it’s essential for the long-term survival of you and yours.

To that end, I highly recommend stock pots and cookware, such as cast iron, that can take multiple means of cooking. Most of my cookware, for example, can take gas, electric, or wood. I do use cast iron for certain types of cooking (one reason I really want to get moved is to be able to get to all my cookware). Yes, you really can bake in a Dutch Oven. You can even make an oven out of aluminum foil at need that works surprisingly well with a good fire.

Why large pots? Soups and stews. It is an easy way to get filling nutritious meals and fluids in one go. You can also add things to them and keep them going quite a while safely and effectively. There is a good bit written on this topic, and it can be quite fun (and tasty) to read and explore. You can go from Old World goulash to Cowboy Cuisine with ease. There is a reason soups and stews are pretty much a universal cuisine.

Also, before I forget: when stocking up, you may want to look at getting soups and such that are NOT condensed. Anything that needs you to add water is something where you should consider moderation. In any long-term disaster, water is likely to be the thing in shortest supply. Get your water systems now. Oh, and yes I said get one for each person no matter the age. You should also look at having a system in each vehicle, along with collapsable jugs for getting water.

Knew a couple years ago who had a hose blow out on a rural stretch of interstate. By the time a trooper saw them and got back to check on them, they had done a temporary patch on the hose, refilled the radiator with water from a nearby stream using a collapsable jug, and were getting ready to head to the nearest exit with either a garage or parts store. Preparedness always pays.

So, make sure you have cookware that can take pretty much any means of cooking, and go subject yourself to the horrible hardship (cough, choke, wheeze) of survival cooking that is learning how to make soups and stews. Plan ahead and you might be surprised how long you can make your supplies last in a non-temporary situation.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

Preparedness On The Fly II: Health

Preparedness On The Fly II: Quick Thoughts

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Thank You, Update

First, to everyone who has donated, thank you! I can’t say how much I appreciate each and every donation, and each and every one of you, especially given the current economy. Having been out of work for more than a year now, life has been interesting.

I never anticipated that I would be out of work for this long. However, getting hit by lightning is a touch traumatic and leads to all sorts of issues. Who knew? Getting all the medical issues that have come up directly, and apparently indirectly as well, dealt with as best possible (see this column for some details) has taken time but as I noted in a previous post, other than my shoulder joints needing replacement (and lower back not doing well), we seem to have most things contained. I continue to adjust to the hearing loss and other issues.

The real problem has been and will be the memory issues for some time. I’m told the brain will heal in about three years. Then we will learn if the long-term memory issues are permanent or not, and the short-term memory should return to normal. I certainly hope so, as it blows to have the short-term memory of a mayfly. Even with the coping mechanisms I’ve been taught, it is not fun. You get a great idea for a column, oooh yeah need to be sure to add this, and SQUIRREL! If the idea wasn’t written down, it’s gone and it doesn’t take much to act as a squirrel. Flippin tree rats…

While I am working my way back physically as much as I can, I can no longer do truly physical work. Even if my body could handle it, my shoulder joints and lower back can’t. The short-term memory issues make it hard to learn new things and even with all the coping mechanisms I, frankly, space it every now and then. The other day on Twitter I made a comment about a character in the left of a picture when I meant the right. Thankfully someone who understands let me know, nicely, and I was able to correct things.

It used to be writing columns like this and others was something I could knock out in about 30 minutes. These days, with re-reading and editing, plus having to take extra steps on the writing, it literally takes hours. Even so, some typos (and helpful autocorrections I can’t seem to get turned completely off) get through. Apologies, but there is only so much I can do.

I really had wanted to be moved by now, but getting all the medical taken care of (or at least as much as we can for now) has taken more time than I expected. Still planning, plotting, and working on it, but just not happening as soon as I want.

In looking at things, I recently decided to take two steps I really had hoped to avoid. I am applying to retire (early), which is one set of bureaucratic hurdles. I can’t actually do so until Mid-December, and no idea how long the process may take if I am indeed allowed to retire early. I’ve also filed for disability with Social Security, which looks to be 17-24 months of process at best with no guarantee of being approved.

All of which means, for now, that I remain far more dependent upon your generosity than I care for, desire, or — most of all — deserve. I hate having to ask for the help more than I can say. That said, I also appreciate your gifts, your prayers, and your support and encouragement more than words can express. I will never truly feel that I deserve it; but, I do appreciate it more than I can begin to express. Most of all, and most importantly, however, is that I appreciate each and every one of you for all that you do in thought, word, and deed.

Writing is the best thing I can be doing to help my mind heal they tell me. So, I thank each of you that jump in with good, thoughtful, and encouraging comments. I hope that my writing in some small measure helps those looking at preparedness for the first time, and that other posts spark thought, laughter, and other good things. Thank you for that continued support and encouragement! My regular readers rock! The rest of you do pretty good too for the most part, hope you become regular readers. 🙂 As I’ve noted before, I don’t always get to reply as often as I should, but that too is slowly starting to get a little better and I want to keep pushing to respond when I can.

With luck and other things, including the blessings that are your gifts and encouragement, I will continue to plug along and eventually get moved. Thank you all, and as I’ve said before, if there are alternatives to PayPal you think I should consider, let me know. Working to try to get the money up to rent a PO box per some of those conversations too.

More soon, but felt I owed an update on things. Thank you all so very, very much!

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSe

Preparedness On The Fly II: Quick Thoughts

I know that people love lists. They want specific recommendations, and there are those who will cater to that and, in some cases, make lots of money off them. I left Amazon and its affiliate program years ago (never looked back) and boy howdy to I wish I got free things, money, and more from some of the people I do recommend (waves at Streamlight). I’m a writer, therefore a whore for all that I prefer to see myself as a courtesan as opposed to a street walker.

What do I recommend getting and in what order? It remains: Food, Water Processing, and Cooking/Heating. It doesn’t matter if there is a nuclear war or “just” the disruption of the world-wide food and drug production and distribution system, the basic needs remain the same. Also remember that Professor Reynolds is right: You are the carbon they want to reduce. Prepare accordingly.

On food, aside from ensuring basic nutrition, consider how much of what we eat and drink comes from overseas in whole or in part. Coffee and Tea, for example, are imports. If you like them as much as I like them, stock up. You know what else is imported? Chocolate, a lot of coconut and coconut products, and some other staples for baking and even producing pasta and such. Spices quite often are imported, and peppercorns were known as the King’s spice for a reason. Himalayan Pink Salt? First word gives it away. Oh, yes, it is a good idea to have some iodized salt tucked away, as while it is not as good as the potassium iodide tablets it’s better than nothing. That smoked paprika you like? Most likely an import. Canned pineapple? Keep in mind that the pineapple is a symbol of royalty for a reason, as only royalty could afford to have fresh pineapple shipped in to enjoy. Even when grown in Hawai’i, it is still shipped.

Don’t stint on your basic nutrition, and a lot of what we consider junk (canned pasta items for instance) can get you by surprisingly well. That said, stock up on the import items while you can. Heck, if someone wants to get me a gift card to The Fresh Market so I can stock up on coffee and tea (and some other things), drop me a line as I will not object. Same holds true for WalMart, Meijer, and Fresh Thyme. Really do need to beef up the strategic hot sauce reserve as well, come to think of it.

Unless you know of a local salt mine or lick, you need salt and a good bit of it. Again, it’s one of those things that what you start with may be all you have for a while. Also, not a bad idea to have several gallons of vinegar on hand for pickling, cleaning, etc. Said all that before, but it needs the repetition.

I will add that your supplements and medical needs go right in there with basic food. Again, start with the things you can get that come in whole or in part from overseas. Then add in the rest.

Water is a close second to food. Without water, we die and we will do so even faster than we will starve to death. Much, much faster. In addition to stocks, you need to be able to create clean water. Get thee to a good sporting goods store and get some good systems. My recommendation is that everyone, regardless of age, have their own at need. You also need to be able to process large amounts when circumstances allow. I’ve discussed these systems before and I highly recommend not getting filters but complete purification systems.

Thing is, don’t stop there. Get the replacement elements (filter, purification, etc.) that you need to change them out on a regular basis. Get as many of those replacements as you can. The more you have, the better. The one time I will recommend a filter system is for a Chemical Biological Nuclear (CBN) environment. In that case, it’s not a bad idea to filter source water before running it through your main purification system(s). Check the filter with a geiger counter often, treat as potential hazmat, and use it as long as you can.

Why the emphasis on water? Well, in a nuclear exchange I don’t expect municipal water supplies to be on for long if they survive, and residual pressure is only going to go so far. The same holds true for whatever stockpile you have created. In the event of global supply disruption, where do you think the chemicals used by many municipal water treatment plants comes from? Civilization is a fragile thing, and many of the things we take for granted, like food and reasonably safe water, are as well.

Now, on to cooking and heating. Let’s face it, it may be a long, hard, and cold winter for many in England and Europe; and, some other locations around the world are going to have issues as well. While I don’t expect the same levels of rolling blackouts, gas shutoffs, and the like here, they are not out of the realm of possibility. In the event of a major disaster such as a nuclear war or exchange, well, let’s just say the supplies of energy might face an impact (juuuuuussst a touch outside!).

So, you need to be able to cook and/or heat if not your full home at least the shelter area you’ve set up. Propane stoves are great and come in a variety of sizes and such. You can even get propane ovens for camping (and, yes, I really want one myself). Even better, you can get indoor-safe propane heaters to use to augment any heat from cooking. There are other indoor-safe options and I urge you to explore them. Redundancy is a good thing. If you have a fireplace, remember that in a nuclear event you need to cap it, and if capped it is not safe to use.

There are many things you can safely eat raw. That said, hot food warms the body and the soul, and there is a reason a good military works hard to ensure its troops get a hot meal before battle. Survival in the face of disaster is indeed a battle. Which reminds me we really should talk emergency cooking one day here soon.

Food, water, cooking/heat. They really are the cornerstone of preparedness and survival. In this case, it’s a good list and a good priority list for those coming late to the whole concept of preparedness, practical or otherwise.

Also, again, let me recommend paper copies of Dean Ing’s Pulling Through and Pat Frank’s Alas Babylon. Also, while fiction, John Ringo’s Black Tide Rising Series gets into a lot of good information via engaging stories. If you can find any of Jerry Pournelle’s writings on preparedness and survival, they are quite useful as well.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

Preparedness On The Fly II: Health

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

Preparedness On The Fly II: Health

The last two posts have focused on nutrition for the long term, now we need to look at one final component to ensuring your health: medications. I’m going to include OTC in this as well, as they are going to be more important long-term than you may realize.

One result of getting hit by lightning is that I now take an impressive array of supplements and medications. Not as many as some, but I went from a couple of antihistamines to several cardiac-related drugs. The good news is my blood work and blood pressure (which was the truly nasty thing post-strike) are doing very well. Which means I want to maintain that as much as possible.

The problem is, between costs and insurance, I’m limited in how much of a stock I can build up for emergencies. Doesn’t mean I’m not working to do so, but it is limited. One would hope federal officials would release renewals of such in the face of nuclear or other disaster, as DeSantis did in Florida before Ian, but competence is not a hallmark of our so-called elites and elite institutions.

What you can stock up on are your OTC medicines including but not limited to: anti-diarrhea, anti-nausea, antacids, cold/flu, etc. If you have allergies, stock up on antihistamines. Whatever the condition, if there are OTC meds that can work for it, get them. In terms of first aid, get bandages, ointments, cleaning supplies (betadyne, etc.), burn bandages, etc. In a true disaster, such things are worth their weight in gold.

Also look into a good trauma kit or kits (every bugout bag should have one as well as basic first aid) as in a disaster the likelihood of major trauma rises rather significantly. A small kit that can easily be carried on you at all times is a good idea, especially if you do carry concealed. Also comes in handy for car trips given accidents.

Don’t forget foot care as well, as in a major disaster if you have to do the bugout boogie the odds of you having to go shank’s mare at some point is pretty good. Moleskin can be your friend, along with foot powders and other delights. Always take care of your feet before, during, and after any disaster.

In addition to instruction if at all possible, be sure to pick-up some good self-help guides. Many decades ago I came across a book called (I think) ‘Be Your Own Wilderness Doctor’ and it was focused on backpackers and others who could find themselves deep in the wilderness in the days before cell and sat phones. It basically covered how to do enough to get by and stay alive until you could get to real medical help. Guess what. In a major disaster your ability to get to real medical help is likely to be very limited. Find the modern equivalents and keep them with you.

Before I forget, invest in good freezer bags. Store important books and documents in them, and put multiple bags into a larger bag for redundancy. When I’ve backpacked or even traveled, I tend to pack everything I can in high-quality storage bags as caca occureth at the best of times. If something leaks in the luggage, if something leaks onto my luggage and it’s not as waterproof as claimed, or if it simply rains, my gear tends to stay dry and clean. FYI, I’ve been paranoid enough to augment the bags with wet-boxes of various types just to be safe, particularly with documents and copies of critical documents.

Now, let’s approach a potentially delicate matter. Consider what’s below as an intellectual exercise on creating a backup plan for your first few backup plans. This is not recommended for any reason other than as an intellectual exercise.

First up, if you’ve waited until the last possible minute and are doing the boogie, don’t stop for any reason until well past minimum safe distance. I don’t care if they are giving away free gold, ice cream, drugs, or anything else, it is not worth your life. Move out!

Now, once you are past minimum safe distance, and/or the disaster has occurred, and if you are relatively safe at the moment, you may want to plan to consider the possibility of breaking the law. Let the idiots loot the appliance stores and grab the televisions, if you loot anything, let it be a good hardware or camping store, and a pharmacy or doctor’s office.

Forget the junky’s dream, concentrate on what you need: the prescriptions for you and yours; local and other anesthetics along with basic surgical supplies such as scalpels, sutures, etc.; antibiotics; anti-diarrhea and anti-nausea medications; pre-natal items (Pro-tip: in disasters large and small, humans procreate and there is a boom in births about 9-10 months after. Be prepared); gabapentin and other non-narcotic pain meds; and, only if room and time, heavy-duty pain relief. If there are field medications, as in what you might find in a combat medic’s bag, grab those.

At a hardware or home supply, respirators and masks are a good start along with plastic, tape, and related. Camping and sporting goods, look for more filters for your water system and other gear that will help ensure your long-term survival.

Hopefully you will never need to even consider doing anything like this, as you have planned ahead and the civil authorities will have released stocks and done what is needed to help you deal with the disaster. However, it’s always good to have a backup plan to the first few backup plans and doing the above is just that: a mental exercise to create a backup plan that is hopefully well down the list even as an intellectual exercise.

I will say this as well. We’ve talked a bit before about the desirability to have a group of good people with whom to rally and/or bugout with at need. Consider that having a good GP, surgeon, surgical or similar nurse, EMT, former/current combat medic, or other competent medical professional as part of that group is a very, very, good idea. Have the chance to add such during a bugout? Take it and them.

Also, as you are doing the above purely intellectual exercise, consider the following as well. If the location of a doctor’s office or pharmacy is defensible and offers the needed levels of shelter for the situation, consider making it a temporary or long-term base. If there are people there, offer to help take on security and other duties and see if they are willing to partner or join in. If not, move on.

Moving on from purely intellectual exercises, stock up on the OTCs, and work the rest as you can. Just keep in mind that the health/medical supplies you have may be all you have for a very long time. Make your supplies both count and last.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

Russia SITREP 2Nov22

Right now, I’m really wishing the bookies in Vegas were running a section and taking odds on what is going on in Russia. Not just with the internal politics, but with pretty much everything else too. I would trust some streetwise bookies to better understand things and place odds than I would all the Ivy League intel professionals and politicians combined. If anyone could make sense of things, it would be the bookies.

That said, let’s take a look at what appears to be going on in Russia this morning. I don’t think I’m wrong when I say that I suspect pretty much none of us truly do know what is going on and understand it.

There are rumors that GROM did not go quite as expected. In terms of show, the public show was as expected with Vladimir in his Hollywood bunker at the Kremlin and various taped displays showing launches and such. Taped displays. One of which appears to have been interesting. I’m trying to find out more, and really want to get some good copies of some of the video. The CBN-ready troops were no surprise, as the Oligarchs learned long ago to have a group ready that could parade in gear of all types on television at need.

What is interesting is how far that gear and readiness truly extends. As with uniforms and so much more, there is growing word that MOPP and other gear that is supposed to be there and ready is not there. MOPP and other gear from the Soviet era is deader than a doornail. APCs, tanks, and other delights that are supposed to be operational in a nuclear environment require seals and filters to operate. When was the last time that maintenance was performed? The parts ordered and produced? Neoprene and other materials needed for CBN operations have a shelf-life. Just sayin…

Yes, they are cleaning out and restocking the shelters in Moscow. That is show for the domestic audience, as they are also continuing to push the whole ‘only America has ever used and we have never threatened’ bullshit to the internal audience. Right now, no one is seeing signs of this anywhere else. Which is good. We start seeing it elsewhere, we need to worry. Until then, attention is good but not too much worry.

Aside from one more threat, Vladimir and company have continued to stay quiet for the most part. Some of this may be pushback external; some may be pushback internal; and, some may be a glimmer of understanding about true states of readiness on all levels, not just nuclear. More than ever I think we may be looking at a situation where if 20 percent of nuclear forces on both sides work, it would be a surprise. Really don’t want to find out for sure, but as I’ve noted before, we (the world) can’t cave in to this nuclear blackmail or the situation will end up far worse than a nuclear war now. Then again, given the continuing unhelpful comments from the demented meat puppet and the incompetent Regency, we may get it despite the various sides trying to back down.

Amidst this, we also have a lot of politics being played. As I’ve noted before and will continue to emphasize, unless it happens in Moscow it doesn’t matter. Only exception, and it is limited, is if it happens in St. Petersburg. Right now, Vladimir still has Moscow locked up, though not as tight as he did a month ago. Various people and groups seem to be trying to prepare assets or bring them into play in Moscow, but it is muted and careful for the most part. Some may be simply preparing for a transition post-Vladimir, while others might be looking for an opportunity to hurry that process along.

The most interesting and amazingly open version of this is Prigozhin. When it looked like it was just him trying to take out Shoigu, I put my money on Shoigu. However, as I noted at the time, the combination of Prigozhin and Kadyrov, now joined by others, is a very different equation. Various reports now state that Prigozhin has confronted Vladimir over how things are going and the leadership of the military. There are unconfirmed reports that Col. Gen. Lapin, a favorite of Vladimir, has been sacked. There were even reports that he had died/been killed in Moscow. The latter were not believable, but at the same time speak loudly to the political maneuvers underway.

The fact is that Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and others are more than a little upset at how things are going, and want a more aggressive set of operations. How this will be done with the current supply situation (which is largely the fault of high-level corruption) short of going to special weapons is something not being discussed in public by them. Rumors about in private, but not a lot in public, yet. There is also the possibility that they may join others in pushing to get out since they can’t win by conventional arms.

Recently, Prigozhin praised Zelensky and stated that he was capable and should not be underestimated. This is a radical departure from Vladimir and his inner circle. It may indicate many things, from setting the stage for ultimate withdrawal to taking things next level. The latter is not just nuclear, but also political in that Prigozhin may be working simply to put himself on the best possible footing for a post-Vladimir world. It could also mean, but most likely does not, that he’s open to creating that post-Vladimir world. With Kadyrov the kingmaker on his side, the options are open.

There is clearly, however, growing opposition to the war and a growing belief that Vladimir’s plans are unrealistic. Where that truly matters is in Kremlin leadership (including elements of the military not fully controlled by the Oligarchs) and the Oligarchia itself. Public opinion outside of Moscow means nothing. That said, public opinion in Moscow means a good deal, and the public is growing restive. Restive enough to help push change? Not yet, not really. May in time, perhaps even a short amount of time. The resistance in those upper ranks of leadership, however, means a great deal.

The thing is, those stress fractures I’ve talked about before are growing. Vladimir’s health seems to be a growing topic within the Kremlin and Moscow. That things aren’t going well in the special military operation is finally being admitted in circles where such discussions were not permitted before. While public facades are being maintained in many cases, what lies behind is not the picture being presented.

Again, I really wish the bookies in Vegas were running odds on the internal politics as I think they might make more sense out of things than I or anyone else. There is always a degree of politics in play at any given time, but right now there appears to be a lot of jockeying for position going on besides that of Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and company. Good or bad remains to be seen, at least from our viewpoint.

Please just remember that even if Vladimir were to go away today, most of those likely to replace him are even more hardline than he. Most of those in a position to replace him are both adherents to Russkiy Mir and adamant Slavophiles. None of them are of the Western faction. A change of leadership does not mean any of the short- or long-term problems go away.

Oh, and before I forget, the Brits are increasing their lead in the threats from the Kremlin/Vladimir. Yet more have come out in just the last week, with the Russians blaming the Brits for the pipeline explosions. Worth noting.

As for what will happen and the chances of nuclear war? Your guess may be as good as mine. 60/40, 40/60 the odds don’t seem to have changed a whole lot right now. I still expect that if Vladimir stays alive and in power that he would rather see the Ukraine uninhabitable if he can’t have it. Causing problems at the nuclear power plants is a great way to do this and he can claim it was the Ukrainians doing dirty bomb work. He may be willing to openly target them. Then again, he could also push forward with the throughly discredited dirty bomb hoax though that will not work out for him as he thinks it will. His options are in many respects increasingly limited, and rats trapped in corners, even by their own actions, are potentially at their most dangerous.

*****