May we never be asleep at dawn again. Remember them, and heed the lessons.
December 7
Category: History
Miss Lois And the DC-3
Over on Twitter, a conversation with Rocket brought up Beege Welborn’s love of DC-3s. It also brought a grin to my face as I remembered Miss Lois and our plans to buy and renovate a DC-3. Plans that I seriously suspect my Dad prayed would be thwarted.
First up, my Dad did not like to fly. Given an experience or two back in the 1930s, much less a couple in WWII, I can see why it would not be a favorite thing to do. In fact, I think he may only have flown twice in his life after WWII. Me, I loved aviation, space, and flight, and Dad did a lot to encourage me in that — so long as he never had to go up. Particularly after he heard from my mother about my coming in for a landing sideways — had to crab as the instructor had killed the engine a mile or so out from the airport and told me to make it. I did.
Which made his dating Miss Lois a bit amusing for me. She was the baby sister of one of his best friends growing up, and she was also one of the early women pilots in the U.S. A respectable girl from a respectable family, she fell in love with planes early in life, and approached the man running the local flight school to find out how much it would cost to learn to be a pilot. His answer stunned her.
Nothing.
He made her an offer. He would teach her for free, and let her practice for free, with one proviso: anytime over a town or group of people, she had to fly low and wave. Lean out and wave even. His take was that all the boys (and some men) would come out and pay to learn so that a girl didn’t show them up. According to Miss Lois, he was right, and he made bank while she increased her skills for free.
Suitably chaperoned, Miss Lois even took part in some of the competitions of the day, mostly in Georgia if I am remembering correctly. Enough so that when the U.S. started recruiting pilots, both the early ferry work and the later operations once the war began, she was approached both times to be a part. I think one of the few regrets she had in life was that both times saw her caring for a relative, and literally being the only one available to give that care. She indicated that it was hard to say no when Jackie Cochran personally asked her to be a part of the WASPs.
I don’t remember all the details, but along the way Miss Lois Wynn got married and became Mrs. Lois Pryor. Her husband died somewhere around the time my mother died. A year or two later, she and Dad met at a community event for the community where they grew up, and developed an interest in each other. At a certain point, my Dad drove from Macon, Georgia, to Huntsville where I was a contractor for NASA to ask my permission to date Miss Lois. Permission granted.
Miss Lois and I had a good time talking aviation and space. We also ended up double-teaming Dad when he had some strokes and needed some help. During that time, I attended a continuing education event for pilots at a small regional airport not too far from Macon. At that airport was a DC-3 and it was for sale. Not just any DC-3, it was reported to be the one used in the film Hatari! and sported the special paint job it had been given for that movie.
At that point, Dad got worried because Miss Lois and I started playing the lottery with the aim (on the dim chance we won) of buying the plane, fixing it up, and setting off on some grand adventures with him in tow. Our plan was to install an updated version of the original galley, four sleeping berths, four or five seats, and otherwise make sure we were set for landing anywhere. Miss Lois was going to be engineer, a female pilot I knew was qualified on the DC-3 (still want to get that story!) and would be pilot, and I would take Co. Go see the world, haul some small cargos and use that to defray the costs.
We never won, but we sure did have fun discussing the plan. Even if part of that fun was making Dad squirm a bit. I still wouldn’t mind doing it, though it would not be the same.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Veteran’s Day 2022
To all who have served: A good and happy Veteran’s Day to you! If you know a veteran, go nod and smile, wave, thank them, or just wish them a good Veteran’s Day depending on circumstances and their desires. Today is the day to honor the living, while we can. Please do so.
And if anyone knows where Hardy is (far left in the photo), please buy him a glass of goat’s milk for me. Before him I’d never met a troop who would turn down free beer for some goat’s milk, but to each his own.
May it be a good day for each and every one of you who has served.
Conventions, Conventions
Today brings us a guest post by Romulus Wolf, looking at the confusion between the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and the confusion over which treaties to which we (United States) are signatories. It does make a difference, especially with so many, ah, enthusiastic voices this, that, and the other to be a war crime. So, enjoy the food for thought brought to you by our much appreciated guest author.
The Hague and Geneva Conventions, universally agreed upon treaties that govern much of the laws of war… Well, not so much, at least where “Universally agreed upon” is concerned.
Ratification of individual provisions is often spottier than one might expect.
And not always in the ways one might expect either. After all, it’s one thing for the landlocked nation of Chad to simply not bother to enter into 1907 Hague Convention VII. Chances are that they’re not going to be converting many merchant ships into warships. It’s another thing entirely when a major naval power not only doesn’t ratify, but actively objects to that particular convention, on the grounds that t banning such conversions would put something of a crimp in their ability to flood the seas with (legally authorized) commerce raiders1. For the moment, the US is the only serious naval power that ISN’T party. All because we took the possibility of using private warships seriously as late as 1907(2). While the US is the only major naval power of the 20th and 21st centuries to not be party, not all of our company among those not party to the treaty consists of landlocked nations such as Chad, Nepal, or Mongolia. We also share company with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of whom have at least some potential for benefit from merchant ship conversions. Not that party to this treaty ever stopped anyone, as both Britain and Germany used merchant ship conversions as Q-ships in WWI and WWII.
Ah, but surely, as I have been informed by countless internet denizens, the ban on “Dum-dum” or expanding bullets in the Geneva convention has universal, or near universal adoptions? Well, to start with, that one is part of the 1899 Hague Conventions, Declaration IV,3, and it turns out that the adoption of this one is even more spotty. The map isn’t too dissimilar here, albeit with the very notable disappearance of all of Latin America – with the exception of Mexico – from the list of parties. For the most part, concerns about expanding bullets would seem to be a Eurasian phenomenon. The Americas, Africa, and Oceania are mostly not party to this particular treaty. So, unless you’re getting involved in a land war in Eurasia, don’t expect the bullets to be non-expanding – or, more accurately, don’t expect the laws of war to be the reasoning for non-expanding bullets, as most nations use standard ball ammo, regardless of whether they’re party to the treaty or not3.
Now, the Geneva Conventions do have rather better adoption – everyone worth noting is party to Geneva Conventions I-IV, but the additional protocols do get interesting. Additional protocol I, which does a lot, supposedly relating to the protection of victims of international conflict, has very broad adoption, but the list of non-parties is certainly quite interesting. The US, Iran, and Pakistan have signed, but not ratified it (and signature without ratification has no force), and notable non members include Turkey, Israel, India, and Indonesia. It’s sometimes easy to speculate why a nation may or may not have entered into a treaty when the treaty only limits a single or small number of actions, but with the Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva convention, there is so much going on that figuring out anyone’s reasoning about why is probably fruitless – although it does bear noting that much of Additional Protocols I and II is duplicates of something already a part of the laws and customs of war, such as the prohibition on Perfidy (redundantly even within the protocol). The highlights of what Additional Protocol I does include bans on “works and installations containing dangerous forces”, a ban on “methods or means of warfare” that will cause “widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”, a ban on conscription of those under the age of 15, and ensuring that mercenaries are not given protection as legal combatants (note, the definition used is quite narrow – for example, citizens of belligerents, and residents of territories under the control of belligerents are not covered by the definition of mercenary, nor is anyone not taking direct part in hostilities).
Of course, if we leave the realm of the Hague and Geneva Conventions for other treaties, things tend to be even spottier. Earlier this year, there were people getting the vapors over the fact that both Ukraine and Russia were using cluster munitions – not in the specifics of how they were used, which absolutely could have been war crimes (and probably were in at least some instances), but the fact that they were used at all – when neither nation is party to the treaty. In fact, given how spotty adoption of that particular treaty is, chances are that if a war starts up somewhere, at least one of the belligerents will not be party to the treaty.
So, why are international treaties on the subject of war lacking in universal adoption? How can nations such as the US, opt out of major chunks of both the Hague and Geneva Conventions? Well, to oversimplify how international law works, think of nations as individuals with Dissociative identity disorder (and frequently a good chunk of the rest of the DSM for flavor), who can only be bound by rules that they agree to, and each individual personality gets a vote. You can persuade, guilt trip, bribe, and use economic coercion, but in the end, some treaties simply won’t get signed without violence, or a credible threat of it 4. They can also sign with reservations, . And even when everyone involved is party to the treaty consider that in 1914 Germany, Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey were party to 1899 Hague Declaration IV,II, which banned projectiles “the sole object of which is the diffusion of asphyxiating or deleterious gases”, and we all know how THAT turned out. So, for anything beyond the basics, and especially for more technical items, take claims of it being illegal under international law with a grain of salt, especially if they can’t tell you which treaty5 it came from, and definitely have low expectations where actually following the treaty is concerned.
Sources:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Treaty.xsp?documentId=D9E6B6264D7723C3C12563CD002D6CE4&action=openDocument
9/11
Normally I don’t post on Sundays. Maybe one day I will get back to doing scheduled posts of photos, but it is a day of rest and more. Today, however, is a special day.
On this day, oh so many years ago now, I got to work early as was my want, got settled in, and began my morning check of the news. I was looking to see if anyone had mentioned our program or it’s commercial partners, along with other bits of news. I saw the flash of the first plane hitting, and I admit my mind jumped back to the B-25 hitting the Empire State Building. In short order, however, it was clear that this was not an accident.
I watched the second plane hit. I was on the phone to my NASA boss (veteran) telling him the United States of America was under attack even before the aftermath of the Pentagon hit the screen. I made the other calls duty required, and then, like so many, all I could do was watch. I kept my boss updated as best I could, as we all waited to see what happened.
I still get a chuckle out of one thing that happened. My NASA boss had been EWO ready back in his Air Force days, which made things easier as I could use shorthand, if you will, in talking with him. At one point, having had to go downstairs, I saw him across the lobby and let him know that the President was airborne in AF1, which was also now the National Airborne Emergency Command Post. Using shorthand, I simply let him know by using the phrase ‘the President is NEA-Capped’ which led to one other NASA person having the idea someone had gotten to the President and broken his knee cap. Clearing this up gave one and all a much needed laugh.
Then, we waited. Across the nation, burn and trauma centers stood to, and the Nightingales crouched in ready alert upon their pads. They waited, and their wait was in vain.
Then, later, I was there in NYC, after a flight that saw me teach an impromptu and off-the-books course on self-defense to the cabin crew before boarding. Funny how many of us in those days found ways (sometimes with the help of the crew) to put ourselves in places such that we could be between potential trouble and the cockpit. Locking the barn after, admittedly, but it was the mood of the moment, and people having tantrums on flights didn’t happen for a while there as fellow passengers put a stop to such immediately and, er, firmly. And, officially, nobody saw nuthin in such cases.
That first visit was officially for other things, but I spent one day in a series of interesting meetings and tours. I was at Ground Zero, and watched the searchers do their work even as the boots melted off their feet. With the fires and compression heating, in the early days they would often have to change out boots multiple times a day. The streets of lower Manhattan were still thick with the grey dust that was all that was left of the Towers and the people within them, and the smell of baked lime and burnt sweet pork still hung in the air.
I visited the ferry, and talked a bit with some of the people who got it up and running so fast. I met with leadership high and low, and even with the little men upon the stair who were not there. Got asked if I wanted to spend a little time on river patrol, which I did — like everyone else who signed up to work Ground Zero, that stayed with FDNY. Investigated a report of a body that thankfully turned out to just be a log. Still remember one of the crew pointing at the Statue of Liberty and saying to take a look while it was still there — yeah, we expected more would happen.
Over time, I think I visited every “temporary” emergency command post they had up until the current “permanent” one came online. This time, the politicians listened to them and while I’ve not been there, I was assured (with a degree of happiness I can’t truly get across) that it was nowhere near a target and done right.
I also learned about so many that day who did what they could, even at the cost of their own life. If you don’t know the story of Rick Rescorla, you should. Look it up. There’s a reason for the music above. There were more. The NYPD LT who was my guide/contact/minder that first time almost died twice that day, both times running to the sound of the drums.
Between that and some other events where I was a part of things as they unfolded, I’ve learned a lot about disaster preparedness and emergency management. I’ve even done all the coursework to be a federally-approved on-scene commander (need the practicums to finish). And I think that the current federal system is a mistake, as it is fed-way or the highway and only federally approved contractors can take part (including outside NGOs and the like). Just look at “Day Four, when the federal authorities took over ” for a clue. I guarantee you that this approach will take a minor event and turn it into a major disaster sooner, rather than later.
That story, however, is for another day. Today, sing the song of Rick Rescorla and all the others who died helping ensure others lived. Raise it to the heaven’s and let it shake the foundations of the temples of complacency and power. And remember the lesson that had they yielded to petty and bureaucratic authority, thousands more would have died in NY alone. Raise the song of all those who did perish, and those injured, that horrible day.
*****
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts (please see previous post), feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
An Era Ends
The Queen is Dead! God Save The Queen.
For all that I am glad I don’t live under any monarchy, I liked Queen Elizabeth II; I admired a number of aspects about her; and, I respected even more. She was a better friend to the U.S. than many may ever know or realize. From all accounts she would be the first to admit she wasn’t perfect, but she set a standard few can measure up to.
For me, you gotta love that as a teenager facing the Blitz, she learned to shoot Winston Churchill’s tommy gun; reportedly received rather extensive weapons training as both she and her father said no to leaving in the face of invasion (rumor has it the initial response was rather pithy, and the public statement was a bit more diplomatic but also blunt). In addition, she learned car repair/mechanics and drove an ambulance during the blitz. When not driving, she worked on said ambulances. Fearless is one of the descriptors used in regards her driving, again rumor suggests a few others were applied as well. She reportedly retained a keen interest in both the military and intelligence throughout her life, possibly to the dismay of certain prime ministers. She also had a quick way with people who, er, got on her bad side. Personally driving the Saudi monarch around on a tour after that gentleman had made some comments in public about women drivers was just one of them. There is more I could say, but for now, I will simply say:
God Bless Queen Elizabeth II! May God have mercy on the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth, and all those who morn her passing. We will not see her like again anytime soon.
Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation
For those who have persevered and gotten through: THANK YOU! My hosting provider Dreamhost sucks. Think I’ve been down more than I’ve been up the last few months. I’m now talking with two other providers to find out what it will cost to get their help migrating to an actual hosting provider. Particularly one that can handle basic blogging. I will add that to the fundraiser (getting hit by lightning and being out of work this long sucks even worse than Dreamhost, and that’s going some) and see what can be done.
Really wanted a catchier title this morning, but the imagination just isn’t cooperating. In some ways, this lesson is a hodge-podge of concepts yet it really isn’t. Instead, it takes scenarios and targeting and puts them into a plan that is governed to some extent by policy including (one hopes) how and when things escalate.
Absent some serious flip-ups, the detonation of a single nuclear device, or even two, should not result in a full-scale nuclear exchange. I will note that this is dependent upon Dead Hand not being programmed/ordered to do so on the Russian side, and a couple of other minor caveats, but one or two detonations — particularly in the tactical range — should not trigger all-out nuclear war.
First up, let’s explore a couple of points of policy. Absent signs of a massive full-scale attack by any enemy, the unofficial policy of the United States has been more towards restraint and proportionality. I say unofficially as the U.S., like most nuclear powers, has been coy about discussing what it will or won’t do in response to any attack. The idea is to avoid getting locked into a set of actions that might not be the best option(s) under the circumstances. Having the maximum amount of flexibility in deciding when, where, and how to respond is a very good thing.
For all that Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was and is a thing, most people with any degree of sanity really want to avoid that. After all, you flush yours and we flush ours has a degree of finality to it for all the governments of the world, and isn’t going to be that good for the world in general. So, even if highly unofficial, flexibility is preferred by leaders with a degree of sanity everywhere. Those without sanity, or highly desperate, are the reason MAD put the world at the mercy of the least stable (mentally, politically, otherwise) leader(s) anywhere.
Which does bring up a number of issues, including how does one respond to someone using tactical nuke(s), or that is using chemical, biological or other weapons. I grew up and spent years using CBN (chemical, biological, nuclear) rather than WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) or the current CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive). The latter encompasses a much broader range of nastiness, though I think WMD does cover things from a legal standpoint. Despite what some may think, the U.S. is not party to any treaty that bans the use of Fuel-Air Explosive (FAE), thermobaric, or other weapons. Reminds me, there is someone I need to ping to see if they might be willing to do a guest post on the various Geneva and Hague conventions and what the U.S. is, and is not, signed up to.
It was long the position of the United States that anyone using any type of WMD (CBRNE, MNOPQRS, or whatever) was effectively using a nuke and would be responded to as if they HAD used a nuke. The policy had the desired effect in that it made rogue states (and others) think twice and at least openly avoid using any type of WMD. It also gave the Soviet Union some pause in regards its doctrines calling for the use of various WMD in military operations. That it may also have helped to lead to some treaties limiting biological and other bits of nastiness is a plus in my book.
However, back in the Obama administration we got the famous “red line in the sand” incident involving Syria and Russia. If you are not familiar with what happened, you do need to look it up. From where I sit, it turns out the lines weren’t red and were indeed written in the sand as there was no real response to the (alleged) use of chemical weapons by Syria and/or Russia.
Which does put the Biden administration in a bit of a bind. If Russia uses WMD in the Ukraine, does it hold to the stated policy or, once again, let it slide? If chemical or other, there is undoubtably going to be a LOT of pressure to let it slide. But, what if it is nuclear? My bet is lots of pressures from a lot of different directions, including from Vladimir with his “escalate to de-escalate” idiocy. Given that Biden reportedly told Vladimir well before the invasion of the Ukraine of his terror at the thought of a nuclear exchange, much less a nuclear war, who knows how either will react.
Which leads us (hopefully) to SIOP. The Strategic Integrated Operations Plan builds on all those scenarios discussed (or at least alluded to) yesterday. Within it are a series of responses to almost any set of circumstances that arise. This includes major and minor targets/target packages per each circumstance. In this case, Biden should already have been briefed in on SIOP when he was VP and should have taken part in some exercises that are designed to get those involved familiar with protocols, options, and other good things. This should have been updated when he because POTUS. Problem is, as Tom Clancy noted in his works, you can get administrations who blow those exercises off…
For our 201-level discussion, let’s start with the idea of Vladimir and Biden staring at each other with steely gazes and firm resolve over the Ukraine. As they jut their jaws and double down on showing firm resolve, the Duchy of Grand Fenwick uses Iran and Pakistan to attack the U.S. (or NATO) while everyone is looking with bated breath at Vladimir and Biden.
Got news for you, it doesn’t mean that everything we have launches at Vladimir. In fact, as a missile officer explained to me many years ago, the only time everything is aimed at one location is right before launch. In fact, he used the analogy of Countries A and B being in a fight (or ready for one) and Country C coming up and shooting Country A in the back. Do you shoot B because C shot you in the back? No. You turn around and shoot Country C.
In this case, it’s obvious pretty quickly what has happened. As a result, SIOP provides options that result in the President choosing target package MOUSE 7 which sends the appropriate weapons by the appropriate means to the assigned targets in those countries (and elsewhere) as needed. In this case, elsewhere could include the cruise liner charted by the Duchy to take its population out to sea so as to survive retaliation. Too bad they didn’t do more OPSEC on that…
SIOP is intended to provide a range of options for each scenario so that POTUS (or successor) can choose the right response given the situation. Within that is some flexibility in regards major and minor targets. The idea is, in part, to keep things equitable if you will. The problem with that, however, is that people are people. Leaders can miscalculate, they can misinterpret data or what is being said to them by their opposite number(s), and they can just flat out flip-up. A good example is in the movie By Dawn’s Early Light where the Russian launch at China is mistaken for another attack on the U.S., which leads to an escalation. That really should have been taken care of by notification through the hot line teletype, but it makes for decent movie…
In short, communications are the key. It’s why in the past a LOT of effort has gone into establishing and maintaining both official and unofficial lines of communications between governments and administrations. It’s why efforts were made to ensure the leaders had some understanding of each other. It’s why even when seconds count, people usually try to communicate. When they don’t is when you get things like the massive flip-up that was the weather rocket incident. Thought for the day: you can never have enough communications and redundant communications. No matter how much you have, there is always someone who does NOT get the word. Plan on it.
For all that the use of WMD, including tactical nuclear weapons, does not have to mean escalation to a larger nuclear exchange, I am concerned that such will happen. When you have one leader who not only threatens such on a regular basis, but has members of his administration talk about total nuclear war and how ready they are for it to the media and others (and even the animals at the zoo as enthusiastically as they go about it), it does not make fertile ground for restraint or for the concept of “escalate to de-escalate” to work as planned. In fact, it pretty much ensures that it won’t work. Throw in an opposite number of advanced age and concerns over mental competence, who spends a good bit of his time threatening and running down the majority of his own citizens, and it is a recipe for something nasty, not tasty and good. It creates a situation ripe for misinterpretation and misunderstanding.
To be honest, the best we can do right now is hold on, hope that the systems on both sides are weighted toward restraint, pray, and prepare. Anyone who says that Russian use of non-nuclear WMD is different from the use of nuclear, well, either doesn’t know history and historical policy, or is just a flippin idiot whistling past the graveyard. Things do NOT have to escalate, but it does depend on reasonable, competent, and frankly brave leadership on every side. May the situation never arise, but if it does, may the leadership on each side rise to the occasion.
*****
SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:
Nuclear 201 Posts In Order
Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?
Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms
Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2
Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:
*****
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Into The Light: Mikhail Gorbachev
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. For those in the West, we were indeed not only in a good time, but heading into a golden age in many respects. For those not in the West, particularly behind the Iron Curtain, the times truly sucked on a scale that few today can conceive. That so many now look back on the time with nostalgia says something about how fucked up things are today…
I noted yesterday that I have mixed emotions on the passing of Gorbachev. That is being polite. The man was the enemy, on more than one level. Yet, I have come to have respect for the man, for reasons and because Boss had respect for him.
It was that respect, along with understanding, that allowed Reagan to run the board. To use information from a number of sources, including Agent Farewell, to put Gorbachev into a position where he had no choice to but to bow to the inevitable. Make no mistake: the man fought long and hard to keep the CCCP going, and remained a Leninist, if not a Marxist, to his dying day. He was murderous, vicious, and more.
Yet, he did two things that indicated a moral clarity, or at least honesty, that I’m not sure to this day if any other Soviet/Russian leader has the capacity to do. One, well, rather than a certain former astronaut Gorbachev may be responsible for my first silver hairs, and the other is the fact that at the end, he realized that he and Soviet communism had lost and accepted it. Not easily, not well on some levels, but he had lost and he knew it. He then worked towards making it a soft landing, at least for some. That doing so helped others [see the (in) famous Pizza Hut commercial] may or may not have been an intended benefit.
I admit that now I wish I had taken the opportunity to hear him speak. Perhaps even in a small group setting, as it would have allowed a different, perhaps better, understanding of some of what is happening today. Thing is, Gorbachev was/is despised by most current Kremlin leadership (including Vladimir) because he was NOT a slavophile, but looked to the West. He felt very strongly that the best future for Russia lay with and through engagement with the West and adopting Western modes and thoughts. Word from various sources is that he was, er, not happy, with Vladimir for destroying “his legacy” of engagement with the West.
That said, I also admit that in many ways rather than sharing a cognac with Gorbachev I would much rather have had a beer or three with Lech Walesa, some time with Vaclav Havel, or the honor of a meeting with John Paul II. For all I would like to understand more of how the loss was handled, I feel that there is an even greater need — particularly now and not just with the Russia/Ukraine war — to understand all the ways that led to us winning. If the West and its legacy of thought is to be saved, we need look to these men (and Boss).
To steal from another classic, I come here today not to praise Gorbachev, but to bury him. Would that we could and were burying the murderous legacy of communism and socialism along with him. Sadly, we are not and even as we deal with the hopefully dying heads of the hydra that is the legacy of Marx and Lenin there are lessons to be learned from his life.
SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come
Past, Present, And A Hungry Future
If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova
*****
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Nuclear 201: Some History
Welcome to the first entry of the Nuclear 201 series. While this is still a high-level approach to learning about nuclear war and related issues, it’s time to take a bit more detailed look at some of the issues. In fact, if anyone out there is interested in contributing a guest post on a relevant topic, drop me an e-mail at the address in the upper right. If some things work out, hope to have at least a couple, if not more, guest posts and/or related.
To understand where we are requires some history. The thing is, the history of the nuclear age is fascinating and there are many, many rabbit holes down which we could dive. There are tales of brilliance, stupidity, treachery, and honor. Some are humorous if terrifying, such as scientists and engineers placing bets on if a certain bomb was going to involve the atmosphere in its reaction and reduce the Earth to a cinder — even as the detonation countdown was underway.
While Einstein’s famous equation E=MC2 (squared) started the ball rolling, it wasn’t until the 1930s that people got serious about the idea of nuclear power and nuclear explosives. It really was the fact that Nazi Germany was looking into things that spurred the U.S. into pursuing its own research after the famous Einstein letter (which he signed but did not write) of 1939.
The history of this period is complex and fascinating. There were competing theories on how to achieve various milestones, and each group seemingly went its own way. Germany decided on one approach that required heavy water, and the successful effort by the Norwegian underground to deny them what they needed may well have kept them from being first with a bomb. I wish I could remember the name of the book I read on the Norwegian effort that I found excellent, and there was another on the German nuclear program that was accurate and entertaining. Stupid lightning. Trust me, reading up on these efforts, as well as the work of the Four Hungarians of the Apocalypse on the Manhattan Project is well worth your time.
For our Nuclear 201 purposes, one bit of important history is that the Manhattan Project (and quite possibly the Nazi project) were penetrated by the Soviets pretty much from the start. No, the Rosenbergs were not the be-all and end-all of nuclear espionage. Again, several good books out there (beware some recent revisionist histories). Net result was that Stalin was not surprised when Truman revealed The Bomb to him as he was fully briefed and pushing a secret effort of his own to catch up using the info coming in from the various moles in the program.
In the brief window of time where the U.S. was the sole nuclear power on Earth, there were some who thought that status could be made to last forever; some others who thought it could be made to last for years if not decades; and, a few who pointed out that it wouldn’t last long. Since some of their spiritual descendants are active today, let’s take a very quick look at the major schools of thought.
First, there were those who felt that for anyone to develop The Bomb they would have to go through the entire Manhattan Project (or Nazi counterpart) to do so. Even if they did get a few nuclear secrets, the steps had to be repeated and those efforts, especially the need for high-speed centrifuges, would be easily detectable. Warn the country, and if not heeded, take out the project with either conventional or nuclear weapons.
Second, there were those who said that most of the project could be skipped with the right knowledge. Or espionage. This would save years of effort, and the key signs would be the centrifuges and other large-scale activities that would be hard to hide.
Finally, there were those who said the entire project could be skipped since the knowledge was out there, and what couldn’t be stolen could be worked out by smart people. Again, it was the centrifuges and other large-scale efforts that would be the clue that Country X was working on The Bomb.
Then the Soviet’s exploded their first bomb and put to rest the idea that the U.S. would remain the sole nuclear power for any length of time. They also sort of proved the last group right in the process. And thus the nuclear arms race was born.
In some respects, what happened is proof of the Toddler Laws school of thought. Who had the largest? Who had the most unique? Who could make the smallest? Who had the most advanced design? The race was on and both the U.S. and the Soviet Union sought to out do the other in every possible aspect. So much so, that at one point it is believed that the Soviet Union had more than 40,000 nuclear weapons. The U.S. was reported to have a few itself. Great Britain and France appear to have felt that a few hundred each was more reasonable. Maybe.
Now, as this was going on, a number of people questioned what was going on, and eventually various treaties were negotiated to reign things in a bit. This is a decent list of those treaties by year. We could talk for months, if not years, just about the treaties (much like the history of the original projects), but I will for now leave it up to you to decide if that is a rabbit hole you wish to explore.
Those treaties were why Boss coined his famous phrase “Trust, but verify.” I’m not saying that the Soviet Union (or later Russia) had a reputation for violating treaties of all sorts before the ink was dry, but I will say that they had (have) quite the reputation for developing some of the most interesting interpretations of various clauses in various treaties. So much so that the complexities of those interpretations twist things to the point the time-space continuum should have shattered.
What truly matters out of all of this for our 201 purposes is that right now as a result of these treaties the Russians are thought to have approximately 6,257 nuclear warheads with 1,458 ready to launch via missiles, bombers, etc. The U.S. is reported to have approximately 5,550 warheads with 1,389 ready to launch via missiles, bombers, etc. Three sites with information on all nuclear countries are here, here, and here.
The thing to keep in mind is that not all of these are strategic weapons. You have tactical devices and you have some specialized charges as well: shaped charges, atomic demolition munitions, and other oddities. We’ll get more into that soon enough.
Meantime, here’s a bit on how the Soviets used nuclear weapons to put out some oil field fires. Makes me wonder what Red Adair could have done with a few nukes…
Yes, there is a LOT more that we could cover today. Again, trying to keep it high level and point towards places (and topics) for exploration. Neat thing is, more and more keeps coming out about the early days, here and elsewhere, and it just adds more fascinating material to an already interesting field of study. We may well jump back into some of this as Nuclear 201 continues. For now, however, this gives you enough overview to understand what is to come.
SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:
Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:
*****
Russia/Ukraine Posts:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come
Past, Present, And A Hungry Future
If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova
*****
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Nuclear 101: Scenarios
NOTE: If you had problems getting to the site, thank you for persevering and I will simply state that my hosting provider, Dreamhost, sucks. If I had the time and money I’d switch immediately at this point. Don’t, so can’t, but suggestions on good hosting providers most welcome. Given that I usually have a short time in which to write these posts, if the occasional typo/autocorrect error makes you meltdown, you might want to skip. These posts are high-level overviews, and if you want to discuss details, special cases, one-offs, etc. feel free but keep it civil and don’t pretend non-inclusion is a world-ending mistake to give yourself ego-boo. For all those (the majority of you) making good, solid, and thoughtful comments: THANK YOU! Such are very much appreciated.
Well, I had planned to spend today discussing tactical weapons/atomic demolition munitions and then explore some scenarios. However, Winnie The Poo himself, Xi, has done something incredibly stupid even by his standards which sort of highlights that desperation thing I’ve talked about a few times.
In the epic temper-tantrum and meltdown being pitched by Xi and company over Granny WineBox’s visit to Taiwan, Xi approved the launch of several ballistic missiles: over Taiwan. Even better, according to reports now hitting the media, they landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Now, leaving aside the toddler-level histrionics of the tantrum, doing this would appear to be in violation of more than one international convention, possibly one or more treaties, and is ill-considered to say the least. It does, however, give a good intro to exploring a scenario of how a political leader being an idiot can start WWIII.
For all that it is a tired trope in fiction, I personally find it to be one of the more likely scenarios. Fact is, people make mistakes and sometimes those mistakes snowball. Ego gets in the way of rationality and you also have to consider the toddler-model of governmental interaction (short version: governments tend to behave like toddlers in a room full of toys).
Okay, let’s say one of the missiles had a malfunction, so that it went short and the warhead hit in a major city on Taiwan. Even if a dummy, it’s moving at speeds that start to make it a Kinetic Energy Vehicle (KEV) that could, potentially, have the impact of a small nuke. Safe to say, things are going to get tense and given that the Chinese military is already out acting like a bully having a tantrum and looking for a target, you get good odds of things escalating.
Now, let’s consider a malfunction that causes a missile to go long and off course. What if it hit actual Japanese territory, or say a passenger ship? Do you really think Japan’s going to be terribly understanding? Or that Xi and company might actually think and try to de-escalate the situation? Yeah, I don’t give good odds on that. And, for the record, this is a hypothetical and I know Japan is not a nuclear power and for obvious reasons doesn’t like nuclear weapons. That said, it does have allies who are, and Japan also knows it is on Xi’s list.
Given the amount of air traffic flying over Taiwan (that area is a MAJOR air corridor), let’s think about something that actually could have happened. Back when I was getting my pilot’s license many years ago, one of my cross country solo flights took me through military airspace. Had all the appropriate permissions and such, but as I was in that airspace traffic control came on and told me to turn to a new course immediately. I was making the turn even as I acknowledged the order (crazy I may be, stupid I try to avoid). As I made my turn, I saw artillery firing and could even see some of the shells as they rose up to and through the altitude I was flying.
Like those shells, ballistic missiles, warheads, re-entry vehicles, etc. don’t care that you are there. Unlike those shells, they are moving at speeds that make it almost impossible for them to be spotted and a plane maneuver out of the way. Now, imagine that through sheer bad luck one of those missiles had hit an American passenger jet as it flew through that heavily congested airspace. Shades of KAL007. Except that in this case, as we send in aircraft and ships for search and rescue/recovery efforts, one or more of them are attacked because someone on the Chinese side fucked up.
Situations like that can get out of hand fast. The late Fred Thompson’s line in the Hunt For Red October is true and prophetic. It’s one reason for having tight control of nuclear weapons, and things like Permissive Action Links (PALs, sometimes referred to in older documents/fiction as Presidential Initiative Device, PID) and release codes. Problem is, the smaller the weapon the more likely someone at a lower level could do something like staging it for ready use if they think the order might come. Let’s say the skipper of an attack sub thinks that a release order is coming or that war has already started. He then uses a torpedo (or more) with nuclear warhead(s) to attack one or more U.S. ships coming in for search and rescue/recovery efforts. That whole “least stable” thing I keep talking about with leaders? It goes down the chain as well, and it can fall on a simple seaman hitting the button when they shouldn’t just like in the fictional The Bedford Incident.
In fact, since continuing to think on the imbecilic bone-headed (insert more choice words here) actions of Xi and company is not helping my blood pressure, let’s turn to a potentially fun way of exploring different scenarios. Let’s look at fiction, good and bad.
One of the first books I ever read on nuclear war and surviving afterwards is the highly recommended Alas Babylon by Pat Frank. It is one book I recommend having as a paper copy as it is not just a good story but an excellent primer on on preparedness. It is fairly realistic (esp. for its time) and optimistic.
If you want to get into more nihilistic fantasy with the fanatical commies willing to live underground for 50+ years to take over the world (except for the U.S. which will be a radioactive wasteland with no life of any type), go for Triumph by Philip Wylie. The concepts of special nuclear weapons discussed is interesting, as are the aspects of bunker/shelter design raised. I’m not a fan of the book, to be honest, though it did help inspire a high school science fair project on designing a shelter to keep X number of people alive and communicating for at least five years.
In the same vein, you have On The Beach by Nevil Shute. If emotions are your thing, enjoy. If a thoughtful and realistic novel is your desire, this is about as realistic IMO as Triumph, which is to say not at all.
To get back to books I can recommend, you need a paper copy of Pulling Through by Dean Ing. If you have not read his fiction, I highly recommend it. If you have not read his non-fiction, including his work on preparedness, I HIGHLY recommend it. He and the late Jerry Pournelle wrote a lot of very good material on preparedness and related topics. Get it. If you have to, get it electronic and print it out. Pulling Through is half fiction and half non-fiction, and both halves are chock full of good and important information. Get this book!
When it comes to movies, there’s just not a lot out there that looks realistically at preparedness and survival in the aftermath. Most, IMO, tend to be rather nihilistic and pessimistic as well as heavily political. If inevitable death is your thing, go for The Bedford Incident, Fail-Safe, and a host of lesser movies. Even the enjoyable Dr. Strangelove has the world end. I will note that the movie Damnation Alley shared only a title and a couple of character names with Roger Zelazny’s good novel.
Two movies I do/did enjoy, though realistic is not necessarily a word I would associate with them, are WarGames and By Dawn’s Early Light. WarGames frankly was just some good, fun, escapism in which I could ignore the politics and not have to deal with suspension of disbelief issues because it was so unrealistic. The Mad magazine satire of it was excellent, with everyone including the computer asking Matthew Broderick’s character why he was playing with the computer instead of Ally Sheedy. At the end of the movie, you see the computer going through a variety of scenarios and playing them out. And, yes, the category for these articles is a play on the “Would you like to play a game?” from the movie.
By Dawn’s Early Light is one of those movies I almost hate to like. For certain values of correct, it actually got a few things right. The performances by Powers Boothe, James Earl Jones, and Martin Landau were such that I could/can ignore the anti-Christian, evil Army colonel, grrrlllll power, and one-dimensional patriot aspects as well as some massive plot holes. I admit that I tend to hear Peter MacNicol’s repeated line as ‘Mr. President, please don’t torture yourself, that’s my job!’ All that said, it does offer a more optimistic take on things, and reminds us that people can dial it back under the right circumstances.
The only thing on television that I can even halfway recommend was The Day After. Sorta.
With that, I will call it a day. Tomorrow I plan to start talking about preparedness and survival.
Some Previous Posts:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come
Past, Present, And A Hungry Future
If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova
*****
Nuclear War Posts In Order:
*****
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.