Category: Politics

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

If You Think

*****

Nuclear War Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Nuclear 101: Now What?

It truly is the eternal question: Now What? In 1945, it was the question asked as we realized we were on the back of the bull/tiger/dragon/colorful metaphor of your choice and needed to hang on. It’s still the question today, and we will get to it here in time.

In 1945, the United States was the most powerful nation on Earth, with a temporary monopoly on the power of the atomic bomb. While some felt that we could hold onto that power indefinitely, reality as always intruded. The Soviets had known about the Manhattan Project from the start and were already at work on creating their own bombs. This was spurred along, no doubt, by reports that some were pushing to use the bomb to take out the Soviet Union, nip Mao in the bud, and do other world-cleaning events. There were indeed such pushes, given that both politicians and generals had been quite vocal about the need to go ahead and take on the Soviet Union with the conventional forces already in place in Europe.

In those early days, there was what we would now consider an amazing lack of knowledge about atomic weapons. Radiation, contamination, fallout, and more were learned about somewhat on the fly. Aside from the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, U.S. and Soviet troops were exposed to blasts, marched through blast zones within hours, and treated to other delights. A surprising number of military and civilian leadership/elites apparently truly thought there would be little to no effect on the troops, despite what was being seen in Japan with survivors. Yet others simply saw this as an opportunity to learn what would happen.

As it began to sink in that atomic munitions were not something to be used like extra-powerful conventional bombs, there came a spate of serious proposals that read like bad science fiction. Of course they wanted atomic-powered planes, rockets, and more. There were also serious proposals for armored/shielded land crawlers that would dwarf a Jawa sand crawler, giant robots, and more. It can be a lot of fun to go back and look at some of these proposals.

At the same time, strategic concepts were being developed for the use of atomic weapons. The ridiculous idea that they would pre-empt and prevent conventional war was quickly disproven by Korea and a host of smaller conflicts around the world. At the same time, people began to realize that as more countries got more and more bombs, that a nuclear war would be/could be devastating on a scale never before seen. Pretty much every country of any significance began upgrading its air defenses as planes were the primary means of delivery at that time. As rockets and missiles came to the fore, work began on anti-missile defenses.

As things progressed, concepts were developed for the use of weapons and fighting an atomic war. In some respects, the focus was on preventing the use of atomic weapons and limiting exchanges between parties (really between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R.). Thus was developed the moral abomination of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) which simply was that if the U.S. were attacked, we might be destroyed but we guarantee you will as well. Both sides had the means to destroy the other, potentially a few times over, and would do so at need. Since each side could do so, neither would attack the other. At least that was the theory, though it really didn’t consider independent powers that weren’t part of the two major power blocks. Worst, it put the safety of the world in the hands of the least stable leader with nukes.

Yet, planning continued on “limited” nuclear war and, to be honest, how to get around MAD and various treaties. After all, if you could come up with a way to take out your enemy’s atomic arms and/or the command and control of same, you’d win, wouldn’t you?

To get a better idea of the ideas involved, allow me to recommend reading Herman Kahn’s Thinking About The Unthinkable and Thinking About The Unthinkable In The 80s. There are other books out there, some of which are quite good, but these two capture a great deal of the philosophies of nuclear war, and avoiding same. NOTE: This is not an endorsement of or agreement with everything espoused by Herman Kahn. Agree or disagree, it is a fascinating window to this world.

They also provide a window into the concept of limited nuclear war. In such an event, only a small number of weapons — perhaps even only one — would be used and then both sides would stand down from further use of atomic weapons. Two problems, IMO, with that are human nature and clarity. Human nature says that even if a limited strike is executed on Country A by Country B, Country A is going to want to strike back and if they feel an existential threat they are going to be inclined to strike back as hard as possible. Clarity, in this case means that you know what you are doing and that you want to limit things, but the country you are attacking, and any allies, aren’t mind readers and are likely to be taking any announcements from you with a grain of salt. To be polite.

Is a single missile being launched a harmless weather sounding mission? Is it a satellite launch? Or, is it a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that will detonate over the target country and take out pretty much all electronics with a burst of EMP so a surprise attack can be launched? Even the use of tactical devices on the battlefield runs a real risk of escalation. If one uses such against a city with military and political headquarters, you have just put your cities at risk.

It was the U.S. position for decades that the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons would be regarded as first use of nuclear weapons, and would be responded to in kind. Those particular red lines have been severely eroded, which may have unfortunately emboldened enemies and given the concept of “escalate to de-escalate” an undeserved air of legitimacy. For those who are not regular readers, this is a Russian concept that they could use a special weapons/tactical device or devices on the battlefield and prevent retaliation by threatening to go strategic (full exchange) if anyone fires back. Sort of a ‘you know I’m crazy because I’ve used a nuke, if you retaliate I’m crazy enough to launch them all’ scenario. I have my doubts about how well that’s going to work…

Tomorrow, I think we discuss targeting and may start looking at some scenarios; but, for today, let’s close out with two very important considerations: Command and Control, and defenses.

Command and Control is how the President (or civilian authority in line of succession) gives orders to our nuclear forces. It’s also how the military shares information with the President, so he can make the decision(s) on how to respond to an event or events. There are such command and control systems/structures for every atomic power.

In the case of the U.S. we have bases, airborne command posts, and perhaps some other things devoted to detecting threats and responding to them. There are dedicated communications networks for these purposes, for all that the Chinese seem to be potentially trying to spoke them. No, I’m not happy about those Chinese land purchases that also seem to come with all sorts of interesting electronics, though I expect little to be done for now. Just keep in mind, as I’ve noted before, the majority of our detection systems are older tech and focused pretty much entirely on ballistic missiles. Much broader threat envelope today…

The Russians also have detection, command posts, and airborne command posts. However, the Soviet Union back in the day realized the communications nets sucked so they devised a system to work around it. For all that we joke about the President pushing the button, the Soviet-now-Russian system is pretty close to that. It has an official name (Perimeter) but is best known as “Dead Hand.” The idea being that a dead hand can still launch a retaliatory strike.

I wrote about the system before at Blackfive years back (can’t find the link, sadly) but the basics are that the system monitors cities, seismic data, and more and if it detects information indicating an attack on Russia, a duty officer is notified and they can decide next steps. Also, if they get the launch orders from the special control system that is usually near Putin (or previous leaders), they can act. Either way, they make a decision on target packages and then launch a missile that as it rises up broadcasts a radio signal to the nuclear armed forces that gives them the launch orders. Once that rocket goes up, the Russian missiles will launch. Which is why we should all celebrate Col. Stanislav Petrov, who when a major warning system malfunctioned, made the decision to ignore the false information and prevented 1983 from being the year of WWIII. The system also came close to being activated by Boris Yeltsin when a weather rocket launched from Norway was mistaken for a first strike.

The British, French, Chinese, and others all have their systems and those systems reflect their governments. With the British, we have a good deal of sharing and it used to be fairly common to see British liaison officers at NORAD and other facilities I’m told.

Now, a little on defense. While Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems get a lot of play, there are a variety of options. Passive defenses include bunkers, such as The Hole or Cheyenne Mountain Complex. Active defenses can include ABMs, projectile systems, or potentially space-based systems. Work on lasers and other directed energy devices is advancing according to industry publications and RUMINT. For a number of reasons, I’m not able to comment on a lot on this work, but will admit I find it frustrating when told (usually by an over-educated idiot) that some or all of it won’t work. You might look up Dean Ing’s discussion on accidentally directly intercepting a missile in flight. It was decades ago, and the idea apparently was to have a near miss so they could get the data to allow a direct hit. Ooops.

Sadly, a lot of our defensive efforts have been prevented/gutted/etc. by people who seem to feel it is immoral and improper to defend yourself. Or possibly because they agree with the enemy. I do wonder some days. And, yes, there is a group that feels that because of MAD we have a moral duty to die without defending ourselves since that might undermine MAD. My thoughts on them I leave to your imaginations.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

If You Think

Nuclear What?

*****

Nuclear War Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

*****

Nuclear What?

Yesterday, I read an interesting article on a recent conference on nuclear deterrence (and more) held in Omaha. This is an annual conference held under the aegis of the U.S. Strategic Command, formerly known as SAC before it was abolished in a fit of premature celebration years ago.

While it’s been going, mostly, since 2009, it seems this year the shit finally got real for some people as they realized what others have been saying for years: Russia is a realistic threat who is modernizing as rapidly as possible; the Chinese are still a few years away but working hard to bypass parity with the U.S. as soon as possible; Iran is a realistic threat on it’s own, much less as a catspaw for others; and, even North Korea needs to be taken seriously.

Consider the fact that at least the backbone of our nuclear capability is based on mid-1960’s technology. The Minuteman system is indeed just that, and you might want to take a look at the BUFF and how some of it’s crews include three generations of military family serving in the same plane over the years. Let’s not get into our command and control system and the reported use of floppy discs and other delights. Let’s not get into the age and design of our warheads, or that we need a better range of warhead options for scenarios that might have changed just a bit since 1965. Nor the fact that we have not taken full advantage of our technology and what is allowed under treaties to engage in the type of anti-ballistic missile (heck, anti-missile period) defense that would protect us from not just ballistic threats, including depressed trajectory shots from sub-launched missiles, but also from cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery vehicles, specialized delivery vehicles (deep penetrators, etc.), and, well, you get the picture. A lot has changed since 1965. Sadly, it isn’t our nuclear presence or posture.

Meantime, Russia has the SATAN-1 deployed and is working on the SATAN-2. I’m taking some of the things with the SATAN-2 with a grain of salt right now, as it was supposed to be fully deployed (and replacing the SATAN-1) about two years ago. They have continued warhead development, a variety of delivery vehicles, nuclear-capable bombers, and everything needed to have a reasonable assurance of a reliable and robust system. Or, at least the appearance of one. Again, there appear to be some glitches in the system, and I do take the Russian/Soviet tendency to develop what I call “Ronco Systems” as a result of an occasionally massive inferiority complex. That is, systems that are larger, better, faster, etc. than corresponding American systems and they also do other things/provide more options in the process. Problem is, the more bells and whistles, the more often there are performance issues.

China, well, what I will say right now is that they are working hard (and stealing tech/designs) not only for nuclear weapons, but the systems to accurately deliver them under a variety of circumstances. They appear to be looking for a robust, diverse, and effective system. Yes, they do worry me. They should worry anyone with a brain.

Iran, despite the implication in the linked article, was pursing and has never stopped pursuing development of nuclear weapons. They appear to have gotten a good bit of help from the Chinese both on weapons and on rocket technology. I find it amusing that when COVID hit them, it may have come in on some of the clandestine flights between Iran and China related to this project. While I don’t see them yet as a near-term peer, as I have written before, I can see them using their new satellite launch capability to initiate a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) attack on the U.S. as a lead in for another power to take advantage of. Given the current sorry state of our power grid, and that pretty much all efforts at hardening it and the electronic systems we depend on from just such an attack, just one burst of EMP could eliminate the U.S. as a modern society for some time to come.

North Korea is proof that the idea of the fate of the world resting on the least stable world leader wasn’t scary enough. For all that I think there is at least some method to the madness, I still see the madness as not being a happy-making thing.

I think that getting into all that is involved may end up taking several posts. For the public to understand not only what is going on, but how we got here and the options available to us, is complex and may take some time. For example, we need to look at basics of nuclear war, from theoretical limited use to a full exchange. We need to look at what is required to have a reliable and robust system and ensure it works when needed. This is especially important given that according to some sources, we’ve gone from an 80 percent success rate to a 20 percent success rate for launch. We need to look at what is required training for our political and other leadership so that they respond as well as possible to threats or attacks. The war games described by Tom Clancy and Larry Bond in their works were real, but can anyone tell me the last time a POTUS or other senior political leader took part in such? And, there are a few other topics that may need to be discussed in this context.

My goal is over the coming weeks is to explore these topics and to take such explorations where they, and possibly even the comments, lead to the extent that I can legally and morally do so. Meantime, I’m going to go ahead and invite some people I know to join in and shoot holes in what I put up. Who knows, maybe we will get a good guest post or two out of it.

I’m going to include this in my Russia/Ukraine coverage as it is there that I see the largest chance for people on all sides to fuck up by the numbers. Right now, I think we haven’t seen the worst simply because of legalisms, but that is both a past discussion and perhaps one for the future. Meantime, have a good weekend!

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

If You Think

*****

If You Think

That the Russians ever quit trying to penetrate the United States at multiple levels and locations, think again. This is a great example of classic tradecraft, though it is harder to pull off today than it used to be. There’s a reason that overseas birth certificates are used far more than they used to be.

And so many think The Americans was just fiction. The number of sleepers, much less operatives and agents, in the US would stagger most of the public. If you think there aren’t more scattered around the U.S., quite likely even here in Indiana, I have a bridge for sale at a bargain price. Sleepers, agents, and operatives: been done for decades and not all as obvious as Chapman, etc. They never stopped.

As a quick aside, if you ever wondered about capital punishment in the Soviet Union, check out the scene of Nina’s death in The Americans. Very accurate. You might also want to check out the story of Agent Farewell as I’ve recommended before.

Obligatory for the record: I do NOT have info on Hilary. Despite being hit by lightning, my health is doing pretty good. My outlook is positive. Time to bring up my joke poll from a few months ago: Given that I’ve managed to annoy at least three different governments, will they find classified info, child porn, or both on my computer? I’m going with both. Which government: U.S., China, Russia, or other will be behind it? 🙂

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

*****

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

I’m not going to do a full update, but two things came out of the OSINT community today that caught my eye. One is a reminder of how fast things can get out of control. The second is a pipe dream that deserves to have a flamenco done on it in hobnail combat boots.

H. I. Sutton this morning shared the NavalNews story that the Knyaz Vladimir, a Bulava-class boomer, has had the “Z” invasion marking painted on it. While the marking has been going on a LOT of equipment that is in no danger of being sent to/used in or on the Ukraine, this is a very clear message that is well in keeping with some of the official comments and unofficial RUMINT coming out of Moscow.

For those just joining in, the Russians have been threatening the use of nuclear weapons, including full-scale global nuclear war, pretty much from the start. If this were a formally declared war, instead of a special military action, doctrine would have seen the use of special weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological) long ago. Given that Vladimir is a cheerleader for “escalate to de-escalate” philosophy, this is not a happy making thought for many of us. “This business will get out of control” is valid, and how easily and how fast it can do so is keeping a lot of good people up at night.

Also, DefMon asked a question yesterday that I saw this morning. It very simply was if Vladimir was a valid military target. Short answer: Yes, just as Zelenskyy was and is.

The longer answer is that any action by the Ukraine against Vladimir will rapidly escalate the situation and the scope of the war. An attempt to kill or kidnap him via military action, similar to what the Russian’s attempted with Zelenskyy in the early days, simply aren’t practical. Using other weapons simply to try to kill him are both unlikely, given the lack of long-range weapons or covert deep-strike capabilities. Finding a way to do it, however, is guaranteed to move things from special action to full war.

As Evergreen Intel dryly noted, a palace coup is not likely to work out as many would like to fondly imagine. Any internal coup is likely to pit various units/ministries against each other in literal, not figurative, battle. While things are not quite like they were when Tom Clancy and Larry Bond wrote Red Storm Rising, you are going to be talking troops, militias, and “security” troops that are former military turned mercenary involved in protecting Oligarchia and others. Would I be surprised at full-scale/small unit combat between groups? No. Would I be surprised at some form of maskirova with small special weapons? Honestly, sadly, no. Once the dust settles, things could get very interesting very fast depending on who won, as Vladimir is far from the most militant person involved, as there are others who make him look like the voice of reason and restraint.

As I noted on Twitter, “If Vladimir keels over dead for some reason, the claim he was assassinated will be used by those shooting for the top (all puns intended) to further their goals. Even if he knows it’s coming and tries for orderly succession, odds of pulling it off long-term about zero.” Even in the short term, I’m not sure Vladimir could pull it off. Given the prize, expect to see those looking to be come the new Czar go all in to the point that we will indeed see it get out of control to the point we will be lucky to live through it to modify the quote.

If some power outside of Russia and/or the Ukraine were foolish enough to try to assassinate Vladimir, much less succeed, things will get out of control pretty much immediately, with the unthinkable becoming the thinkable and implemented very, very rapidly. Especially as that is one of the automatic scenarios for which Dead Hand is supposed to monitor.

So, just a couple of tidbits of food for thought. As always, if you can shoot holes in the analysis using real citations, logic, etc., go for it. But, show your homework and no magical handwavium allowed.

Oh, has anyone else noticed that a portion of the Kremlin seems to have gone radio silent? As in almost no RUMINT, comments, or general chatter? Not a huge block, but interesting.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

*****

Shinzo Abe

More than almost any other world leader, Shinzo Abe saw what was coming and worked hard to bring the West together to face the authoritarians. He brought those of democratic background together around the world to build the bulkwarks against the coming storm. His not-quite eye roll at Merkel’s bloviating to Trump at a summit remains a treasured moment that can still make me smile and laugh. He will never have the respect in the media of an “austere religious scholar” and I suspect he would me more than okay with that. The timing of his assassination worries me very much, and I am going to be following what come out about his assassin and the motivations/payments/etc. closely. I’m more than a little concerned he was the canary in the coal mine for Asia.

*****

Independence Day

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Dobbs

Actually, this is a dissection of the response to a post I made on Twitter, which was in response to an overly dramatic post by a celebrity. I’ve enjoyed that person’s work, even the occasional scenery chewing, but wasn’t surprised at the dramatics.

The majority of response were likes to a post that basically said “No uterus, no say” which is one of the most intellectually vacuous statements out there. It is a logical fallacy right off the top ten list, an effort to end discourse rather than engage in it. Twitter makes it hard to get an exact count, but it looks like 40 or so went that route rather than for discourse.

Then there was the bizarre take of “When the state wants to start castrating men, you’ll sing a different tune then. No state should be allowed to say what you can and can’t do with your body. End. Of. Story.” Looks like 20-30 went with this. This level of projection is worthy of a full-up psych study. Let’s dissect it a bit further.

The State is the Federal government, and if all power resides in it, then it can indeed do bad things. That’s a fundamental reason for The States to have power as a check and balance. Fundamental civics, well understood from the statements of the Founding Fathers. It’s also the reason for the First and Second Amendments since word would need to be spread of the abuse and the Second provides a means to address. Before you start screeching, you might want to check the Federalist Papers as well as the letters and writings of Thomas Jefferson and others such as Adams and Washington. As for the nukes and such, you might want to ask the Taliban and the Ukraine about how it is impossible to go up against a government with nukes, artillery, and aircraft. That take is a bit of idiocy others have already taken apart, will just refer all to the International Lord of Hate and his posts.

The next logical perversion/fallacy here is that not allowing abortion at will through or even after birth will somehow bring about The State decreeing all males must be castrated. Or, at least all those who don’t fully support abortion on demand, which is what I think is the actual psychological projection here. No basis in fact, no logical or illogical reason for it since if all are castrated there will be no future population, hence no future State. To call this fantasy bizarre is an understatement and it is in direct opposition to the fantasy of forced breeding and birth that seems to be popular.

Finally, the implied assumption is that either I and all other males will simply comply or be forced to submit. By whom? Are there some in the military or LE who would obey such and order and engage in such force? Sure. Are there a lot more that won’t? You bet. Scooter, which part of the population has both the weapons, the training, and even the service to handle those weapons (and more) and resist? Might want to think on that a bit, especially if you are proposing that you and your fellow citizens will make it happen. I may well be singing in the future. Heck, I might even be singing in a growing pile of hot brass. The one thing I will guarantee is that it won’t be in soprano.

Looks like about six went with “States rights is the most un-American argument ever. That’s how you make 50 little warring countries. UNITED States. It’s like, right there in the name.” Do they even teach civics anymore? History? This bit of risible idiocy has partially been dealt with above, but allow me to add that the Constitution was written to prevent that level of strife and that other than the War Between The States it has held. It has also allowed, to some degree, individual States to pass laws and try things so that other States could adopt if they proved to be good ideas. The incubator concept of the Founding Fathers clearly isn’t being taught anymore. For the record, I suspect my landlord’s cat has a better knowledge of civics than these people and I know my Algerian-born housemate does as he just finished earning his Citizenship when he passed his civics exam. Really thinking it would not be a bad idea to deny high school graduation or a GED to anyone who can’t pass that exam…

There are a couple of outliers, the obligatory mother forced at risk of her life to carry by the cold, cruel, uncaring state; unfuckables identifying themselves (based on some of the photos, not interested, even with someone else’s member); and it was a Constitutional right. No, it wasn’t. It was NOT an enumerated right, which was the entire problem. It’s one even RGB pointed out along with a solution. Solution not taken, so here we are.

Now, let’s deal with some reality rather than the feverswamp of dramatic fantasy. Dobbs puts abortion back to the States, who can for now decide what limits and other measures to put in place. It does not prevent the Federal government from passing legislation on abortion, and there will doubtless be pressure to do so.

Some States have already effectively banned abortion. Don’t like living in one of them? Then don’t move there or if you live there and can’t get it changed, move yourself to a state with laws you like. Live in a State that hasn’t yet made up its mind and passed laws regarding abortion? Get active and let your legislature and others know where you stand, from banning to abortion after birth. For those advocating the latter, may God have mercy on you.

Will any of the State laws keep you from traveling to another State to get an abortion? No. They never did. Will any of the State laws prevent treatment of ectopic pregnancy (which is NOT abortion FYI)? No. Will any of the State laws force a mother to carry to term even at risk to her health? No, not that I’ve seen. If you have a real citation otherwise, let’s see it. Will any State law force women to be prosecuted for a miscarriage? Again, no, not that I’ve seen. And again, if you have a real citation otherwise, let’s see it.

The truth is, absent a Federal law, we are going to see a range of options on abortion, from a near total ban to abortion-on-demand up until birth. Abortion tourism is going to be a thing, at least for a while. If New York and California don’t get into fight over who is the best destination for an abortion, I will be surprised.

Couple of quick side notes. First, as a small-l libertarian, ownership of our body is the core of most rights. It also, however, includes taking responsibility for what we do to and with that body. Second, our body sometimes does belong to the state, such as through military service. In the case of abortion, it’s about the life and body inside the woman’s body, as that life and body deserves to be protected as well.

UPDATE: Amazing the silence from the my body my choice types when asked where they stood on vaccine mandates…

*****

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Since the last update, the only thing that has changed in terms of Russia/Ukraine is that Russia is pushing hard in more areas in an effort to seize territory and cut off reinforcements from counter-attacking. Of course, that works both ways and the recent deep drone strike(s) by the Ukraine are designed to put the Russians on the defensive. Expect it to get even more brutal and nasty here soon, and for the latest information on the combat check out the OSINT people I link to on Twitter (@laughingwolfone) as a good start.

Not exactly a daring prediction, but expect the Russian push to intensify so that Vladimir can “annex” the most possible territory even if he doesn’t really control it. The announcement of annexation is also likely to declare that any attempt to defend (in areas he doesn’t really control) or to take back what they have seized will be an act of war by Ukraine and NATO.

Yes, I expect Vladimir to expand things as they’ve spent the last 20 or so years preparing the populace for war, even nuclear war, with NATO and the U.S. If you aren’t familiar with some of this, check out Kamil Galeev’s extensive work on this and related subjects.

Right now, Lithuania is pushing as hard as it can to make this a NATO/EU war by cutting off access to the Kaliningrad enclave. For those who know not history, Commander Salamander points out a rather unpleasant historical parallel.

The Baltic states have been pushing for this to be a NATO/EU war from the start, and on some levels it is hard to blame them. They know they are on the list to be brought into Russkiy Mir by force. Vladimir has just reinforced that with a series of comments and provocations against them and Denmark. That said, I am less than thrilled with their efforts and this latest by Lithuania has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. Then again, that’s why they are doing it.

There are those who are already calling this the Cold War 2, and saying it could last generations. On some levels, I hope they are right. There is far too great a potential for this to become a hot war on levels no one will like. It will take competent, knowledgeable, and strong leadership to navigate either a cold war or a hot, and frankly I don’t see that leadership anywhere in sight right now.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come