laughingwolf_qh33q8 – Page 80

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

While I still hope for a further guest post or two, today I want to lay out a few further thoughts on nuclear communications. We’ve got into some of the how, and why, they are done the way they are to prevent problems. Another point to consider is that you don’t want any enemy or potential enemy to be able to read your mail.

The fact is, anyone with a functional brain does tests of their command and control systems. You check things out, try to find and correct problems, and test the reliability of the system in all aspects. Thing is, you don’t want those who don’t like you to know what you do and how you do it as it gives them both information and options.

There is a lot of discussion on preventing or eliminating that command and control communications. If you can do that, you can keep release and launch orders from going out. Thing is, even better, if you can get the right info and access the right things you can do something even worse: you can take over that net. Imagine if someone got inside the net, sent the necessary targeting info, then launched your missiles for you — at targets inside your own country/forces.

Shades of a bad James Bond movie? Not entirely, and there are rumors that such has been gamed out.

Going back to reading the mail, keep in mind that different countries/powers use different systems. We tend to go with solid rocket motors, while others go for liquid engines. If you are using liquid engines, you have to load fuel before launch. If someone is reading your mail, and they know you’ve ordered all rockets to load fuel, a process that is not instantaneous though faster than it was I’ve heard, and that you’ve taken steps to prevent detection of said loading, what happens? Do you think they might launch attacks that can hit your sites before load and launch is complete? Using sea- and air-launched assets could take out the attack before it gets started, and reserves the crucial land-based launch capabilities for either last-ditch or follow-on operations.

So, you want to have a robust system to prevent bad things and ensure that things work. Do we have such? No. As a commenter pointed out earlier (think it was The Drill Sergeant) we do not, and in fact some of what we have is reported (widely) to still use floppy discs. On the good news front, as someone noted in an article elsewhere, it uses technology that is so old it pretty much precludes modern hackers from getting inside it. For a number of reasons, I invite you to research this on your own as it is yet another area where we need to be making some serious changes and upgrades.

On that happy note, enjoy your weekend!

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Posting Delay?

Any serious posting may be delayed until this afternoon at the earliest. I’m scrambling on several fronts, not including bills and other delights.

The other delights. Well, they are interesting. I rent a room in an older home. In fact, when my landlord bought the home I was asked if I wanted to move with him to the new place. I did, though I really wasn’t thrilled with the location but it is larger, inexpensive, and overall the landlord and I get along okay. Perfect, no. Good enough, yes.

However, I mentioned older. As in we discovered that the sewer drains were original terra cotta. That the relative he bought from had done a lot of “repair and upgrade” work themselves. I will simply note that even if buying from family getting a reputable inspector to look the place over is a good idea. We’ve had flooding issues in the basement where my room is located because of the drain issues. Thankfully it only got into my room once, but that was once too many in my book. Replacing the line out to the property line was pricey, but along with an emergency sump pump strategically placed (outside) to handle rain/flooding we’ve not flooded since.

Monday saw flash flood warnings in the area and the weather was indeed interesting. Since then, we’ve had kitchen sink drain issues that may or may not be related. The long-needed sealing/resurfacing of the driveway is underway. There are some other minor things going on as well. As in I’m having to make some hard decisions on a couple of different issues. One of which involves social security in light of some of the ongoing issues from being hit by lightning. I will admit to being very pleasantly surprised at how nice and friendly the lady at social security I spoke to was during our talk. One of her suggestions truly surprised me, as it was not what I expected. The good plumber my landlord found will be out today to work on the drains.

And before I forget, there has been concrete work done (much needed) on an exposed porch and some other repair work as well. All in all an interesting week that has us parking all over the neighborhood (can’t use the driveway until Saturday or Sunday) and other delights. Also, I really need to go take a good walk today while the weather is nice. In fact, may take a long walk as I’m not getting enough exercise thanks to the weather, and I can’t afford the gas to go walk at a mall.

So, more soon. Just not sure how soon.

UPDATE: This is likely it today. Went on my walk and decided to explore a trail I’ve not been down before. One thing I will give Indy (and it pre-dates the current admin FYI) is that there are a lot of urban trails that follow old railroad lines. Instead of my normal 3+ mile walk, I ended up doing between 7-8 miles (forgot to cut on my walking map app until halfway through). I feel good, though body is letting me know I have not been doing this enough lately.

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Into The Light: Mikhail Gorbachev

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. For those in the West, we were indeed not only in a good time, but heading into a golden age in many respects. For those not in the West, particularly behind the Iron Curtain, the times truly sucked on a scale that few today can conceive. That so many now look back on the time with nostalgia says something about how fucked up things are today…

I noted yesterday that I have mixed emotions on the passing of Gorbachev. That is being polite. The man was the enemy, on more than one level. Yet, I have come to have respect for the man, for reasons and because Boss had respect for him.

It was that respect, along with understanding, that allowed Reagan to run the board. To use information from a number of sources, including Agent Farewell, to put Gorbachev into a position where he had no choice to but to bow to the inevitable. Make no mistake: the man fought long and hard to keep the CCCP going, and remained a Leninist, if not a Marxist, to his dying day. He was murderous, vicious, and more.

Yet, he did two things that indicated a moral clarity, or at least honesty, that I’m not sure to this day if any other Soviet/Russian leader has the capacity to do. One, well, rather than a certain former astronaut Gorbachev may be responsible for my first silver hairs, and the other is the fact that at the end, he realized that he and Soviet communism had lost and accepted it. Not easily, not well on some levels, but he had lost and he knew it. He then worked towards making it a soft landing, at least for some. That doing so helped others [see the (in) famous Pizza Hut commercial] may or may not have been an intended benefit.

I admit that now I wish I had taken the opportunity to hear him speak. Perhaps even in a small group setting, as it would have allowed a different, perhaps better, understanding of some of what is happening today. Thing is, Gorbachev was/is despised by most current Kremlin leadership (including Vladimir) because he was NOT a slavophile, but looked to the West. He felt very strongly that the best future for Russia lay with and through engagement with the West and adopting Western modes and thoughts. Word from various sources is that he was, er, not happy, with Vladimir for destroying “his legacy” of engagement with the West.

That said, I also admit that in many ways rather than sharing a cognac with Gorbachev I would much rather have had a beer or three with Lech Walesa, some time with Vaclav Havel, or the honor of a meeting with John Paul II. For all I would like to understand more of how the loss was handled, I feel that there is an even greater need — particularly now and not just with the Russia/Ukraine war — to understand all the ways that led to us winning. If the West and its legacy of thought is to be saved, we need look to these men (and Boss).

To steal from another classic, I come here today not to praise Gorbachev, but to bury him. Would that we could and were burying the murderous legacy of communism and socialism along with him. Sadly, we are not and even as we deal with the hopefully dying heads of the hydra that is the legacy of Marx and Lenin there are lessons to be learned from his life.

SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Ukraine/Russia Tidbit

If You Think

Couple Of Quick Thoughts

Uh Oh

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Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

The raid on MAL by the FBI, and the subsequent leak to the Washington Post (where democracy dies in darkness and they are taking out the lights as fast as they can) that “nuclear” secrets were involved rather clearly demonstrated several things. One is that many people don’t have a clue about how nuclear weapons are released. I’ve been told we may get another guest post or two on the subject, but I’m going to do a quick overview this morning on some high-level basics.

Seriously, if you know someone who was screaming about how Trump was selling/had sold/etc. nuclear launch codes/nuclear secrets to Russia et al — do not take financial advice from them, and don’t consider business partnerships with them or anyone who hires them; but, do consider playing poker with them as they are likely to try to draw to an inside straight even when most of the cards they need have already been played. The entire concept of “Q” level materials is a post for another day. For today, let’s look at how things are supposed to work with high-level nuclear command and control.

Guess what: the President can’t just wake up one morning in a grumpy mood, pick up the phone, and give the codes to launch the missiles and bombers. One, he really doesn’t have those codes and has no way to talk to the silos, etc. anyway. He has the codes that releases the weapons to the military and authorizes their use, but not the actual launch codes that would go to the subs and silos.

When it comes to nuclear weapons, America eats, sleeps, and breathes the two-man rule. In some cases it’s even the multiple man rule as more than two are involved.

In the case of POTUS, they are given something about the size of a credit card that is referred to by some as “the biscuit” that not only contains the release codes, but more importantly the means to verify that it is indeed the POTUS speaking/giving the order(s). “The biscuit” is subject to being changed out on a regular basis for rather elementary security reasons. It can be updated/changed out if POTUS, 0r VPOTUS, lose their copy. And, yes, one former President (not Trump) was and is rather notorious for having lost “the biscuit” multiple times during their time in office.

In an ideal world, for POTUS to release the weapons and authorize their use, what happens is that there is an attack conference, which can include a truly impressive number of people. The odds of there being time for such aren’t good, but if there is time there is supposed to be a good bit of deliberation. Then, based on that, POTUS and the SECDEF then give the appropriate codes and verifications to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the National Military Command Center. This would include the appropriate targeting information (“attack options”) per the Strategic Integrated Operation Plan (SIOP). The NMCC then contacts Strategic Command, who then carries out the orders.

Yes, it is a little more complex than that. Reality often is. If the attack conference is not taking place as a result of an attack on/threat to the U.S., the whole ‘sound of mind and body’ thing comes up. Even if things are going south rapidly, those participating can elect not to confirm the order. For fictional treatment of such, see Tom Clancy’s The Sum of All Fears for a good scene. In reality, well, let’s hope we never find out. This article and this article contain some decent information.

Also, there are plans in place for surprise/sneak attacks, including options that see POTUS (and/or successors) removed from the chain. If you search the term “SNAPCOUNT” you can find some good (and some horrible) information. Just keep in mind that even then the two-man rule applies. From the release of weapons to the actual launch, at least two people are always involved.

Oh, if you’ve ever seen any footage or pictures from the command capsule of a missile field, ever wonder why the seats are a distance apart and the consoles set up the way they are? Pretty simple, really. Even with a mechanical aid, no one person can turn both keys simultaneously even if they could input all the correct commands to get to that point. At every step it takes at least two to tango.

Also, if for any reason somehow (not very likely IMO) a “biscuit” were to leave DC with a former POTUS or VPOTUS (or other somehow), guess what? It isn’t valid and has no real utility to anyone except as a novelty (though it’s not a good idea to leave them around where others can study them to try to detect patterns and such). The codes and challenges have already been replaced as the new POTUS takes office.

Again, a very high-level overview of nuclear C&C. I’m hoping we do get a guest post or two on other aspects, as C&C is a fascinating and not well-understood aspect of nuclear strategy.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

A guest post by John Donovan, the Armorer of Castle Arrgghhh (and Lizzie)

Nuke weapons design and policy are governed by the need for safety and control. PALs are a component of control.

What is a PAL? PAL stands for Permissive Action Link. The purpose of the PAL is not to prevent unauthorized use of a nuclear weapon by rogue elements of the US military command. We do that via the EMAS (Emergency Message Authentication System) and NRAS (Nuclear Release Authentication System) systems and the imposition of strict two-person control (at a minimum) at each step of the process.

Some of those processes can be longer than others, depending on whether the weapons involved are “first strike deterrent” weapons like the USAF ballistic missiles and the USN SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles) or further down the chain like the manned bombers, cruise missiles and formerly, US Army tactical nuclear missiles and artillery. PALS are also distinct from
safeties. Safeties are intended to prevent premature or accidental initiation or partial initiation of a warhead.

PALS have a different niche.

NATO airbase, mid-sixties. NATO fighter-bomber, fully fueled and armed, sits on “strip alert,” pilot strapped in. A lone US Airman armed with an M1 carbine stands guard. He is literally the only thing standing between chaos and disaster should that non-US NATO pilot decide (or get told by his government) to light up his jet and go bomb a target. Soviet or not. (1)

US Army Warhead Detachment, Mid-70s. NATO ally army trucks and some tanks roll up to the Detachment’s gate. The purpose of the detachment is to secure and maintain nuclear warheads (missile or artillery) stored in NATO nations that are there for either US units, or, upon authorization, NATO
units. Tensions are erupting between the ally and another nation and signals intelligence indicates that the ally’s generals have been talking to each other about taking some of the warheads to use as a lever against the other belligerent. While the confrontation at the gate never happened, the conversations did. (2)

Hey, NATO Ally – are you my buddy, my pal right now? No? That is why have PALs. To prevent unauthorized people from using US-provided nukes without express authorization from the President of the United States. The problem with both of those scenarios is that besides being scary as hell, it was (and still is) contrary to US law about control of US nukes, i.e., only we could give release, no one could take one of our weapons and use them unilaterally. Only we get to do that.

Yet, we gave nuclear-capable weapon systems to allies – the Nike-Hercules air defense missiles, various US Army tactical missiles like Honest John, Lance, and Pershing, and 155mm and 203mm nuclear artillery projectiles. And many NATO aircraft were nuke-delivery capable. And all that had to be scattered around Central Europe so that those nations could quickly employ them if things got ugly on the North German Plain and the rolling hills of Bavaria along the Czechoslovakian border. Same was true of bombs, and NATO aircraft on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA).

We needed something better than the Airman 1st Class-Mounted M1 Carbine Nuke Weapon Disabler. There are four types of PALs (at least that are acknowledged publicly these days) that are variations on a theme. They are either electrical/digital and integral to the weapon, buried inside where it is hard to get to them, and they interfere with the arming/initiation process until unlocked from an external code transmitted to them, or they are like combination locks that must be unlocked with a code thoughtfully provided by a two-man US warhead team acting under orders with the codes received via the NRAS system. Mechanically removing them will take time, and, most likely, render the warhead inoperative.

Giving hopefully cooler heads time to intervene. A balance between the profound need to control release and the tactical realities of modern combat
“Bypassinag a PAL should be, as one weapons designer graphically put it, about as complex as performing a tonsillectomy while entering the patient from the wrong end.” (3)

Acknowledgements and further reading, if you want further unclassified details.

A useful unclassified and easy-to-read discussion of PALs.
Steven M. Bellovin Permissive Action Links (columbia.edu) A useful unclassified and easy-to-read discussion of PALs.
A drier, more technical discussion of both Safety and Control. Subscription to the Bulletin is required to access the archived articles.
U.S. Nuclear Weapons Safety and Control Features To cite this article: (1991) U.S. Nuclear Weapons Safety and Control Features, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 47:8, 48-49, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.1991.11460025 https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.1991.11460025

Notes
(1) Stein, Peter and Feaver, Peter. Assuring Control of Nuclear Weapons. University Press, 1987
(2) Reed, Thomas C. At the Abyss: An Insider’s History of the Cold War. Presidio Press/Ballantine Books,
2004.
(3) Caldwell, Dan and Zimmerman, Peter D., “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War with Permissive Action
Links”, in Technology and the Limitation of International Conflict, Blechman, Barry M., ed., Johns
Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, 1989.

Acknowledgement: The author wishes to acknowledge the sharp eye and excellent editorial instincts of Lizzie, a feline of great discernment. Not only did she keep him company and offer encouragement, she added stray characters and deleted random paragraphs to test this scribbler’s skill. Sic Semper Felinus.

Acknowledgement II: This old wolf wishes to thank John for coming out of blogging retirement, as it were, to add to the Nuclear 201 series and to Lizzie for her contributions as well.

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SOME PREVIOUS POSTS:

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

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Artemis1 Scrub

Well, bleep. Part of me really hoped Artemis would launch, especially as a friend has a payload onboard. Having worked twice for NASA as a contractor (Spacelab & Commercial), unsurprised. If the launch does take place and is successful, it will be the first time NASA has designed and built a successful major launch system since the mid-1970s. That’s an awful long stretch of nothing.

Meantime, SpaceX is plugging along and if Blue Origin ever generates parts and engines as contracted, rather than lawsuits, we might have a real space race for a change. Wish Virgin Galactic would get into the launch business instead of just the tourist business. What we need is a four- or five-way competition to spur innovation, cost reduction, reusability, and reliability.

Yes, there will be failures, and just as with aviation we learn, adapt, improve, and press on. Thing is, for every failure, there will be hundreds of successes. Potentially thousands even. The news today is that Space X has made it so routine that any hiccup in any system is the news rather than the amazing successes of the routine.

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A Sunday Thought

For all I try to take Sunday’s off, oddly appropriate I’m having to think this morning about the best way to deal with someone who meant well, but has done harm. With the best of intentions, potentially a lot of harm.

The struggle is in how to make this a teachable moment, for all involved. We are commanded to Love and forgive, even when such is hard. Reminded of good lesson from now sadly former priest who pointed out God commands us to love, not like. 🙂

For we can indeed love, without being required to like a person or their actions. In fact, there is a good argument that we must not like that which is evil and does harm, even as we love that person. Love the sinner, hate the sin.

There are days, and situations, where that is hard. Then again, that is part of the test, and the opportunity to heal and grow. It may not be possible to bring others along on the journey, but one should find a way to make the offer to come along. Just, one needs to be sure that if they refuse it does not keep you from moving forward.

EDIT: Want to add the following I added on Twitter: And before I sound too noble and philosophical, the catalyst for these thoughts are one of many reasons why, if I wasn’t addicted to my creature comforts, I would be sorely tempted to go walkabout for a couple of years and then return to see if any sanity had returned to the world.

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FIC Shortage Continues

Sorry, but am still not feeling great. More soon, promise.

No Free Ice Cream Today

Sorry, have been feeling bad this week and today it caught up with me a bit. Also didn’t help that I’m still waiting on that huuuuge announcement from the special session of the Duma that so far is crickets chirping. Keeping an eye on things, esp. the nuclear reactor, but think there will be no free ice cream today. Standby, more to come though.

Experiment Day

UPDATE: The Duma will be meeting in special session tomorrow, and will make a special statement in regards Ukraine. Not a good sign, but will wait and see what they say.

Today is/was a bit of an experiment. I’ve noted before that I can write or I can respond to comments, and while that is improving it is still a factor for me. Also, I have been limiting distractions and potential distractions while writing. My days of being able to write in a crowded, noisy, press area are behind me now; but, I also need to be able to do more in somewhat stressful/distracting situations.

So, I decided to try writing up on the front porch rather than down in my semi-secret subterranean wolf’s lair. Besides, the sun is shining, the weather is nice, and I’d like to enjoy it while I can. It was also as test to see how well I can handle an environment with more distractions and such.

To be fair, while the traffic and a visit from a member of the Rodent Liberation Front were indeed distractions, I might could have handled that. It was having seven IMPD vehicles go by at high speed that started the real distraction. Then five more. Then more. Then another group of five or so including one of the SWAT armored vehicles. Then more. I lost track of the exact number, but it was pretty good.

I have a police scanner app on the phone, so brought it up after the first two groups went racing by. I still don’t have the whole story, but a few blocks west of me this morning, a dead body was found (apparently shot). Apparently there was a suspect identified and things got interesting. From what I could hear, there appeared to be a house with various people possibly armed and barricaded; a group of armed people outside the home who were hostile towards the police; and, some other interested parties.

Eventually, “the suspect” came out of the house and said they were the last person inside. Large effort made to get suspect into custody and into a vehicle with out “the family” seeing them. Makes me think some of the armed parties wandering around were considering some street justice. Things seemed to de-escalate from there and units were released to other duties. Which was good as about a major block from me, two wives got into it because one of them touched a shoe belonging to the other, which led to a gun being discharged into a sofa over the offense. Three units were dispatched to that situation (and I was left with the impression that neither of the wives wanted to touch the gun after the discharge), and others to deal with normal things like a man in grey underwear and orange socks stopping traffic on a major street, another interesting individual claiming to own all the copper in a Harbor Freight, etc.

Really looking forward to reading/hearing the news accounts on the first incident. Sad to say, the others probably don’t qualify as news given the current status of Indianapolis.

Morning is still my best time for writing and such, and this morning is gone. I’m keeping an eye on a number of things, however, including trying to figure out how well the Dugina passion play is playing out in Russia; this interesting post from the good CDR Salamander (seriously, you need to read him and not just for the excellent naval coverage); some other odd bits that may (or may not) tie into the larger picture. Thanks to a very perceptive comment, I may change up the planned Nuclear 201 order to go into reliability issues first. Yes, a guest post or two are in work.

Meantime, please consider hitting the tip jar. The end of the month is here, there are some unexpecteds, and I’m trying hard to get out of this blue-check hell-hole that the city of Indianapolis has sadly become. If the local prosecutor isn’t Soros-backed I’d be amazed. For all I’ve come to love this city, I’m done. As fast as I can come up with the lump-sums needed, I’m out of here. The rural SW calls. Am exploring several options right now, including pods, using shipping containers to build at least a temporary home if some things work out, and other creative options to get me moved. The key costs are: the move; a location to rent while I find a good place (or, find a place then figure out the rest); and getting StarLink and other utilities covered so I can keep writing.

More soon.

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