Regarding the shooting at Uvalde, Pete Buttigieg asks, “Will anything be different this time?”
“But you’re also looking at Washington to say ‘Will anything be different this time?’ Will we actually acknowledge the reasons why we are the only country, the only developed country where this happens on a routine basis?” he asked.
“And the idea that us being the only developed country where this happens routinely, especially in terms of the mass shootings, is somehow a result of the design of the doorways on our school buildings, is the definition of insanity if not the definition of denial,” he said.
Pete Buttigieg
We would provide better physical security for Congressmen if there were an attack on Congress.
We would provide better physical security at stadiums if there were attacks on sporting events.
We would provide better physical security for the President if there were attacks on the President.
But, as you can see from his comments, we don’t need to change physical security at schools when there are attacks on schools. In fact, to suggest that we should is the definition of insanity.
So apparently not, Pete. Nothing will be different this time.
McCormick says the demand [for wheat] sits around 1-1.2 billion metric tonnes and where the numbers sit now as far as potential available product, is somewhere around 700 million, which will no doubt have the potential to drive food prices even higher than what is being experienced right now.
RealAgriculture.com
If you want to put a number on the crisis we’re facing, here’s one estimate.
Remember them all. The picture is of both the old (right center) and new (left) memorials at Omaha Beach. The new memorial is amazing, and made of polished metal which is reflecting the sunrise.
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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
This started yesterday with a thread on Twitter about the wildest game you had eaten. Now, this was more of a challenge than I would like thanks to the stupid lightning. There are 5 or so areas of cognition, and in testing I still come in above average in all. That said, there is one area where there are issues, which include fun with short term memory, issues working through things when there are distractions, and the fact that memories and data are scrambled. I’ve been told that most of them are still there, but that it will be three years before the brain heals and we can fully access what, if anything, has been lost. I’ve likened it to reaching for something in the drawer where it used to be, and it not being there.
So, the challenge has allowed me to do some exploration and I’m delighted with some of the results. I grew up eating venison, love quail, not so fond of dove, brown and rainbow trout, and have had bream, perch, and a variety of fish. I’ve eaten elk, bison, kangaroo, wild boar, octopus in various forms, squid, whelks, eel, alligator, rattlesnake (I think), goat, lamb, mutton, squirrel, rabbit, snail, brains of various types, and I know I am forgetting some. Now, for some fun.
I’ve always been a foodie, and even worked in a nationally rated restaurant for a while to learn more about cooking. Long before the Food Network existed, I watched cooking and food shows on PBS, which led me to two excellent restaurants in Seattle when I first visited there. I can’t remember the names, and it is frustrating because at one place my compliments earned me a standing invitation to eat at the Chef’s table in the kitchen.
I can still remember that table, and a bit about the layout of the kitchen. I also remember that when you ate at his table, there was no menu. Instead, the Chef and his line cooks prepared things based off of what was fresh, etc. It might start with a golden mouthful of deliciousness or three, or be a larger portion. No set number of courses, and everything was delicious. Sadly, I also seem to remember that the restaurant is no longer there as the Chef passed away.
Seattle was the site of several tasty adventures. The Athenian in Pike Place Market was amazing. When I traveled, I tried to avoid eating at the same place twice. After my first breakfast there, I went back the next day — it was that good. Not only tasty, but huge portions and great coffee. I didn’t feel like eating again until dinner. When I arrived that next morning, I was disappointed to see a reserved sign on the booth where I had eaten the day before, as it had a great view of the harbor. The waitress who had waited on me just smiled, told me not to worry, she had known I would be back and had reserved it for me.
Some of the best Russian food I’ve had outside of Russia was at Kaleenka in Seattle. The best Russian food I’ve had in Russia was at Podvorye in St. Petersburg. I had my driver and translator join myself and a young lady, and we feasted family style there, trying many different things. My inner Hobbit was delighted at the Russian love for mushrooms. Pity I’ll never be allowed to go back to Russia, as would not mind eating there again.
I had heard that it was one of Vladimir’s favorite places, and then either Anthony Bourdain or Andrew Zimmern went there and ate for their show. While I enjoyed both shows, it seems that I’ve gotten more good steers from Mr. Zimmern. I love him for introducing me to a cheese monger in Paris, though my wallet continues to curse him every time I go there. Yes, I did indeed meet Anthony Bourdain. The man had his demons, and I ask you to pray for his soul. I can’t remember the name of the cheese monger, but pretty sure I can look it up if needed, and that I may even remember how to get to his shop.
Paris. Ah, Paris. Two quick rules for eating well anywhere in the world. First, if the restaurant has a busker, run. There’s a reason they don’t have repeat business. Second, follow your nose. I’ve had a number of excellent meals in Paris that came from myself or a companion going “That smells good” and tracking down the source of the smells. I remember one night doing that and ending up sitting at a counter watching the mad ballet that is restaurant cooking and having the chef working about two feet away from me. We got to talking and he gave me his list (sadly lost) of the top ten places to eat in Paris.
His name and the list got me into Le Pantruche for lunch the next day. Absolutely the best sweetbreads I’ve ever had. Would love to eat there again one day. The best mussels I’ve had were in Paris. Again, can’t remember the name of the place though I do remember quite well how we ended up eating there. The rule against buskers does not apply to having a companion all but tackled by a member of the restaurant staff because they are wandering around Paris with an antique film camera and the staff member is a photography buff. After a nice discussion on photography, we decided that we would just eat dinner there. Mussels with a bleu cheese sauce was my choice, and they were delicious. Best mussels I’ve had in the U.S. were in Baltimore at a place called Bertha’s.
I also have to admit that one of the worst restaurant meals I’ve ever had was in Paris. I have no desire to remember the name of the place in question, since the meal was not only not good, I had to go back to where I was staying and brush not only my teeth, but my tongue, cheeks, etc. to get the taste out of my mouth. Went to a good place and had oysters from Brittany to have a last good meal before leaving Paris that time.
I remember a LOT of good meals on the local in Iraq. Both embeds saw me eating on the local a fair bit, from Ramadan feasts to one of the most amazing Christmas dinners I’ve ever had. An Iraqi family had adopted some of our troops, and told them that since they were giving up their homes, holidays, and families that they would give them their holidays back. I’m told Thanksgiving had no turkey, but great food. I was invited along for the Christmas dinner, and have photos of the feast in one of my photo books. Pro tip: If in the Middle East, don’t drink three cups of the concentrated coffee and eighteen chais and expect to sleep anytime soon.
Japan was an adventure. When traveling somewhere, I try to learn to say please, thank you, and ‘what would you have’ in the local language. In Japan, I also had to include no shellfish as I am unfortunately allergic to shrimp, crab, and lobster (actually the iodine in them, makes imaging contrast fun). In Tokyo, I wandered into an area that didn’t see many tourists and found my way into a restaurant where if they could get it on a skewer, they would grill it for you. We went from ‘we don’t get many tourists (gaijin) here’ to ‘oooh, try this’ in near record time.
At another establishment, also well off the tourist path in another city, I had either the strangest fowl I’ve ever had or roof rabbit (cat). I decided I didn’t really want to know, and instead focused on the fact it was tasty. Don’t know what it was marinated in, but the smell when it cooked on a small grill at my place was amazing and it delicious. The owner spoke zero English, and my Japanese was/is limited, with a fair bit of it technical from working a joint American/Japanese shuttle mission. Probably for the best.
I also did something on that trip I didn’t think was possible: I unagi’d out. Unagi is a sushi featuring grilled/smoked eel. I probably ate my body weight in it while there. I have not eaten it again, ever, since that trip.
The final restaurant adventure I remember from Japan was eating sushi at a place not too far from the conference where we were presenting papers. The sushi chef was a character, with being grumpy a trademark. Challenge accepted. As soon as he could, he moved me from the side to directly in front of the fish case. I would point and hold up one or two fingers, to indicate how many pieces I wanted. Sometimes, he would shake his head, and point to something else in the case and hold up one or two fingers. Not a clue what they were, but his suggestions were amazing. By the time I was done, he had his hand up more than once to cover a smile.
Best Korean I’ve had was at the much missed Seoul House in Chicago. A nice older Korean couple ran it, and she admitted to me that they served American-Korean until they got to know you (or you were part of the Korean community). Once they knew you, and they knew you could handle it, you would get Korean-Korean. As she put it ‘When we open, we fixed Korean-Korean — customer never come back. We make American-Korean, much business.’ I can’t remember the name of the dish, but it was fire meat with pickled veggies and marinated buckwheat noodles. Seem to remember that there was an egg in there too.
Best Mexican, so far, was at the Cafe Florida in Juarez, Mexico, many, many years ago. It was my first taste of real Mexican cooking, though my real (not official) godmother could do a great job cooking Mexican.
Most interesting food I’ve had recently was at Smoke’N Ash BBQ in Arlington, Texas. American BBQ, Ethiopian cuisine, and some amazing fusions between the two. She’s from Ethiopia, he’s from here, and between them they do some truly amazing food. Highly recommended.
Best pulled pork barbecue is Bar-B-Cuties in Nashville; best ribs belong to Fresh Aire barbecue in Jackson, Georgia; and, honorable mention to Fincher’s Bar-B-Que in my hometown of Macon, Georgia who saw it’s work fly in space as the late Sonny Carter’s special meal. Not sure about now, but back in the day the astronauts got to request one meal per flight, and Sonny wanted Fincher’s — and got it.
Best Indian I’ve had was in Pitlochry, Scotland at a mom&pop place who’s name I can’t remember. Best German is split between two places in/near Landstuhl, Germany. Best Greek was a mom&pop who’s name I can’t remember in Salt Lake City. If you ever head to Normandy, can recommend a couple of places near/on Omaha Beach.
This has been fun, and while not remembering all the names, I’m delighted with how much I do remember. Thinking back on this has made me smile more than once. Good way to start the day.
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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Just a quick update today, more regular posting soon I hope as the medical sagas seem to be slowing down. We are working to take care of everything that can be taken care of, and ensuring no new problems, so I can move in the best possible health. Also, want everything done that can be done as both I will have to get new docs and my insurance will not transfer so will have to find new insurance as well.
As for the Ukraine, it remains and looks to remain, a long brutal slog. The people I recommended last time are offering a lot of good insights into the war I highly commend. As for the long-term intentions of Russia they remain the same: Russkiy Mir. If Vladimir can’t take the Ukraine now, he’s going to go for all he can and wait for another chance. Don’t expect a change in leadership to change that goal. Even the loyal opposition there tend to be in the nationalist camp, and some names popular in the West are bigger nationalists than Vladimir.
As before, rumors continue to swirl. It’s interesting that there are suggestions that some of the more interesting ones come from Vladimir’s office — which means I trust them not at all. Others are clearly trying to push people into making moves or stands that can be exploited in the Russian version of the Great Game that is politics. Others are clearly aimed at a Western audience. Forget a grain, treat them all with a tun of salt.
For now, I expect Vladimir to continue with the long campaign. The worst part is that the Russians have learned some lessons and gotten in some good leadership that are adapting. Now, the Ukraine is having to adapt and react. It truly sucks when your enemy gets smart, for all that the Ukraine has rather gleefully potted as much of that leadership as they can. Both sides are fighting smart now, which is only going to make a long campaign even longer if all things stay equal. Unless the Ukraine significantly screws up, I see internal Russian issues being what causes any change to the long campaign.
With one exception: outside aid to the Ukraine. Vladimir hates it, blames all his military problems on it, and it could end up changing some of the internal calculus in Moscow. Also, don’t expect all the losses, corruption, and other minor issues like Sweden and Finland asking to join NATO to force a retreat. A double-down perhaps, but not a retreat.
I am unsurprised to read that the Uvalde LE, local and school, are no longer cooperating with the State probe. I also expect to find out that all of them are lawyering up, which I reluctantly must admit would be the smart thing to do. Well, the truly smart thing to do would be to quit and move, and armor up, as the local citizens are a bit irked with them, especially since there appears to be confirmation that some of kids bled out while they waited. I also note that in more than one society/civilization, when one screwed up this badly, one was expected to fall on a sword and explain the failure to one’s ancestors.
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
We need to be wary for the things that are going to kill us, because I do believe we’re in the middle of a war. But we have to beware of seeing snipers in every tree.
I feel like I have to say this, because otherwise people will take this post the wrong way: I believe that food cost and availability is going to be much more of a problem than it currently is, particularly outside of North America.
Okay, then. Now, someone I respect recently posted this article as an example of the ongoing war on food.
But a grain elevator explosion isn’t new or surprising. Fine dust from organic materials is always an explosion hazard. According to the Kansas State University, there were sixteen agricultural dust explosions in 1997, and a ten-year average prior to that of thirteen agricultural dust explosions per year. Of the sixteen in 1997, nine occurred in grain elevators.
So the raw fact of a single explosion needs to be put into context.
Are we seeing double the number of grain explosions? Triple? 100 times? Or, perhaps, half the usual number? One tenth?
And how much of our food supply chain does this affect? 1%? 10%? 0.001%?
My source shared this explosion because he sees that there are a large number of fires in our food supply chain. He’s not the only one. Here’s an article that points to a variety of fires that have hit food processing plants.
The headline talks about “fires” (plural) resulting in reduced capacity (a general quantity), which makes it sound like the totality of the fires will cause a general reduction in capacity. And it must be a newsworthy reduction, or why would it be in the news?
But in fact when you look at the article, there’s literally no sign of significant capacity problems beyond the single-plant level, and even the single-plant capacity problems are relatively few. Here, for instance:
Oregon-based Shearer’s Foods laid off its entire workforce—about 230 people—after a fire ripped through the Hermiston plant in late February.
“After assessing the damage, it’s clear that the destruction is too great to rebuild and begin production in the near term,” Shearer’s Foods CEO Bill Nictakis said in a March 8 statement.
Damn, sounds bad, right? But wait:
“Unfortunately, it would take at least 15 [to] 18 months before we could resume production,” Nictakis said. “We have not yet decided [on] the future of the Shearer’s Hermiston site. [It] has led to the very difficult decision to end employment for our team members.”
There’s more than one plant?
He said the company was “exploring opportunities to relocate team members interested in working in our other plants.”
Yes. And the others are still operational, which means Shearer didn’t lay off its “entire workforce”, but only the workforce related to that plant.
What about the four-alarm fire at Taylor Farms?
“This was an unfortunate event, but thankfully there were no injuries. We have a strategic network across North America where this will not impact the availability of fresh foods from Taylor Farms,” Rachel Molatore, the company’s director of communications, told The Epoch Times. “No employees were laid off; we are already underway to rebuild the facility, and the investigation is still going on regarding the cause of the fire.”
And so on.
On April 30, a soybean processing tank caught fire at a Purdue Farms plant in Chesapeake, Virginia. However, company officials said the facility would continue operating.
Even the poignant and sad event that leads the article, a fire at Wisconsin River Meats, shows how devastating such an event can be for…20 people.
Company owner David Mauer said the Mauston-based company “lost everything” related to production in the fire, and more than 20 people lost their jobs.
I have immense sympathy for everyone involved, but a 20-person company is a single sodium ion in the ocean of the US food supply chain. This is not a significant event — and the others mentioned appear to be even less so.
I haven’t even begun to try to do the full amount of research needed to quantify the impact of fires at food processing plants in an ordinary year, but it’s pretty clear from a quick overview that it’s pretty close to zero. But the people sharing stories like this seem to have even less of a baseline to work from, and they’re brought up short when confronted with the fact that the collection of fires they’re looking at represents a negligible fraction of our food supply chain.
I think we should be watching out for potential evil around us. We need to be wary for the things that are going to kill us, because I do believe we’re in the middle of a war. But we have to beware of seeing snipers in every tree. Focusing on what’s important means ignoring the unimportant, and these fires are unimportant.
This wasn’t the down week in medical terms it was supposed to be, but all seems to be working out. It was, however, a very horrible week as the institutional/authority collapse that is proceeding apace resulted in a catastrophic loss of life.
I first got into disaster preparedness in high school, even designing a shelter to keep a number of people alive for up to five years in the face of nuclear war as a science fair project. I got into it formally when I took on disaster preparedness duties for a job (and sadly got to practice them in real life) and started writing/consulting on same. I also went through Air Force Security Police Augmenter training. Which is to say I do know a bit about preparedness and the plans to prevent/stop school shootings.
I’m torn between being horrified and outraged over what has happened in Uvalde, Texas. If there is a single civic authority that did not abjectly and utterly fail those children, I’ve yet to find it. From the teacher who propped the door open then failed to close it when they had the chance, to the contemptible response of law enforcement, they all failed to do anything close to their duty. I agree with something that was said on Twitter, that the police chief needs to go to prison and those that followed his orders need to personally apologize to their ancestors for doing so. Frankly, the members of Law Enforcement at the scene — especially those Federal and local who attacked the parents — would in a just world be dangling from lamposts. Anything less than that which happens to them, should be considered a blessing by them. As it is, I really don’t expect any real consequences to happen to any of them. I expect an investigation, a report full of handwringing, shows of sorrow, and not a damn thing done to those who failed of oaths, courage, and manhood.
For all that I am glad the Border Patrol team defied the cowardly and incompetent (to be polite) order of the police chief and went in. They waited to long, but at least they acted. The locals, federal marshals, and others who stood around waiting? They have shown they are manifestly unfit to wear a uniform or carry a badge. They should be named and shamed, especially those who attacked the parents trying to save their children. They deserve neither pity or consideration, as they showed none to those they were sworn to protect. They are at best oathbreakers and cowards.
There was a young lady inside who showed she had a bigger pair than all the LE present combined. Big Brass Ovaries that have to clank when she walks. She covered herself with her best friends blood, played dead, and repeatedly called 911 to ask for help and to update on what was going on. She is a hero. The zeros of law enforcement and civil authority there are not.
Yet, Uvalde is symptomatic of our country and government at all levels. The public health community made its grab for power and has wrecked any and all trust with the public. They looked the American citizenry in the eye and lied to them, not once, but multiple times. The FDA is so busy trying to expand its power and mandate it neglects its real and official duties. The baby formula issue is just the tip of the iceberg there. Energy, borders, national security — there is no aspect of authority/institutional competence there. There is only the growing signs of authority/institutional collapse.
The public is very right not to trust authority/institutions at any level. That trust gets people killed. It gets lives, fortunes, and sacred honor destroyed. What can be done? Forcing accountability would help, but is going to be fought tooth and nail by those in authority. Be prepared is the only other option.
Meantime, pray. Pray for this country. Pray for the victims in Uvalde. And please do pray for the survivors, like that wonderful and brave young lady, for survivor’s guilt is a terrible thing. Pray for us all, we’re going to need all the prayers we can get.
For a couple of days there was worried they were going to have to open me up again. Glad no on that, but really would like to know what is going on. Update posted at GiveSendGo.
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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Sorry to be away for a bit, but been interesting medically. Some good, some we don’t know, but interesting.
Right now, in the media and in chatter coming out of Russia, there are rumors of rumors of rumors. The Gotterdammerung group is back at it, in public and in private, pledging to bathe the world in nuclear fire rather than admit defeat in the Ukraine. Hearing some interesting but unverified/unverifiable things about why such talk dropped off so much after 9 May.
There are rumors Vladimir is in surgery, already had it and used staged footage to hide it, has yet to have the surgery, take your pick. About the only thing I haven’t heard is that he is dead and one of his body doubles has stepped in while Patrushev runs things. Would be amazed if someone in Russia or the West didn’t claim such. As for the claim that Vladimir will end up in a sanitarium by 2023, well, he might for all of about five minutes. Once out of power he has the life of a mayfly at best.
The only thing that is verifiable is that Vladimir seems to be going as all in as he can on taking Eastern Ukraine. He would like to take more, plans to take more, but a lot of people still don’t seem to get that he no longer has the Red Army, more the Dead Army or the Potemkin Army. That said, there are enough resources to accomplish this if they can be brought to together. If they can’t and/or the Ukrainians continue to fight smart the Russian military will not just be defeated but gutted to an extent well beyond Vladimir’s worst nightmares.
In some ways, they are already there. Look at all the civilian trucks and vehicles brought in not just for logistics, but to replace military ambulances and a host of other military vehicles. Also, look for a lot more stories like this, as there seems to be a continuing array of disasters that may reflect a sizable chunk of the Russian population rather than Ukrainian sabotage. Whenever one of these ‘one big plants’ goes up, it is an unmitigated disaster for Russia. There is already quiet chatter that the loss of the chemical plant earlier is having a far greater effect than anyone in the Russian government wants to admit.
Until some of this shakes out further, it is hard to say what will happen on the strategic level long term. There is a lot of chatter out of Russia and the Kremlin, but trying to figure out what is real, or what is real but slanted and how/why, is interesting. Unless something happens to sideline Vladimir, I see him pushing on and trying to grab as much as he can, and to escalate things as far as he can. The larger question is, what will happen when he tries and how will his own people and troops respond, esp. as there are multiple units in an effective state of mutiny right now.
Meantime, for both micro and macro combat information and analysis, as well as just good general coverage, check out:
If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
This post is preamble: a long, potentially annoying infodump that serves as background for future posts that may actually be worth something.
And before I go too far, I’ll note one major problem: I’m no expert. I’ve only recently (late 2021) started watching this stuff, so you can’t really trust me. But I promise that I will only post things that come from those who know much more than I do.
I’ve been talking about the impending food crisis since late last year, when the early signs started to rise. The more time went by, the wider the circle with whom I shared my concerns. These discussions were part of the reason our Laughing Lupine host asked if I wanted to blog here.
Now the politicos and money managers have caught on, which means my opinions might not add significant benefit: Once they’re talking about it, the signs are too obvious for additional commentary to matter much.
That said, if we look at the signs that existed prior to their late entry into the conversation (late March 2022), we might see other things that they’re slow to see, and that might help us see farther than they are. It could also help us understand what not to believe among the fearmongers out there; I have a future post in mind on that topic.
To get this issue out of the way early, I think it’s unlikely that we’ll see a civilization-ending catastrophe, and all bets are off if we do. But meat, grain, and vegetable farming is a long-term project that has annual cycles, and this annual cycle is starting off really bad, which means it may be too late to counteract any price increases that are likely to come. Some of that will be mitigated by farmers shifting to different crops (e.g., soybeans vs. corn), so rather than outright hunger we’ll just see shortages of common goods.
But either way, I expect consumer spending to be curtailed quite a bit as we see significant spikes in food prices. We’re already starting to see Target and Walmart suffer massive stock market losses because their margins have been cut in half, at least partly because people are spending more on low-margin groceries and less on high-margin products such as electronics. (And some foodstuffs, corn in particular, are used in a lot more things than just food, but I’m getting ahead of myself.) I find it odd that sites like MarketWatch recognize the “shift” in consumer spending without relating that to margin:
Walmart noted the impact of inflation on grocery pulled sales away from other categories as low-to-middle income shoppers are cutting back on non-essentials, resulting in overall flat transactions year-over-year.
When your margin on grocery is something like 2% and your margin on other categories is something like twice that, your margins get cut when people spend more on groceries even if you have “overall flat transactions year-over-year.”
But this is already getting long, and I’m just winding up. So let’s go back some months. I’m going to start in January, though the signs were there before then.
The first thing I saw, which people in normal media weren’t discussing, was massive, unrelenting increases in the inputs to food. Not just price increases for today’s food, which does get media attention, but the cost increases for fertilizers and livestock feed necessary to get next year’s food to market. These things are priced into our higher 2022 prices by now, but I don’t believe they’re fully priced into late 2022 through late 2023 prices yet. That means we could see significant price spikes even from our current high prices.
First, watch the first 90 seconds or so of this video from January 3, 2022. The video isn’t about the problem, but boy does it show it.
Texas A&M economists found heading into spring planting, fertilizer prices are up 80% compared to 2021, and in some cases, farmers are seeing certain fertilizer prices more than double what they saw last year. But for the report, AFPC was conservative in its estimate, using a 50% increase in fertilizer costs.
Note: A conservative estimate is a 50% increase in fertilizer costs.
It’s not just climbing fertilizer prices that pose a problem for producers, either. It’s also availability that’s an issue for farmers still trying to source inputs for 2022. The study showed 40% of farmers had some difficulty purchasing inputs for the 2022 season.
The agriculture department expects the costs to raise crops and livestock will grow 5.1% to $411.6 billion over the 2021 figure, with the price of fertilizer climbing 12% and for livestock feed, 6.1%. This year’s expected hike in expenses comes on top of a 9.4% increase last year, the forecast said.
Lillibridge, however, said the increases he’s seeing are far greater. He said his fertilizer costs are up 300% and the costs of herbicides, pesticides and other crop protection products are up 100% to 150%….
Farmers have a lot on their minds going into the next growing seasons, he said. In addition to higher production costs, Iowa farmers are concerned about whether they’ll have equipment and parts next season, given supply-chain issues, and remain concerned about the possibility of a drought.
Iowa and large parts of the Midwest struggled with drought conditions last year. Many farmers said they received rain just in time to preserve crop yields.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, released Thursday, showed almost 55% of Iowa experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions in the week ending Feb. 1. That was up from about 52% the previous week and about 48% a year ago.
“It probably wouldn’t take much for us to drop back into a drought,” Lillibridge said.
This is ZeroHedge, which tends to have a lot of hype, but the key fact of the article — that Tesco’s CEO said that “the worst is yet to come” — is true. This is in the UK, but I don’t think we’re so disconnected that we won’t also see issues here.
This article came out before the Canadian trucker protests that further disrupted supply chains.
Key statement: “Several larger feedlots have indicated that they will run out of all feed in a few days.”
That’s food insecurity for 1.5 million cattle. I didn’t hear about mass cattle starvation since then, but there shouldn’t even be a question that there would be sufficient food at a reasonable price. This is Canada, but again, the ripple effects aren’t minimal.
Elevators working in reverse as Alberta cattle feeders face increasingly desperate feed shortage.
“It’s a mess,” notes Kevin Serfas, of Serfas Farms, based at Turin, Alta. “If you only bought exactly what you needed on a week-to-week basis, you are in panic mode right now. I started November 1 and probably have half my orders. I’m not sure what needs to change. Everyone just blames the prior link in the chain.”
That chain includes grain companies, railways and railways, as well as trucking companies.
In some cases, grain handlers, such as Cargill, P&H, Richardson, and Viterra, are essentially trying to run their elevators in reverse. Rather than taking delivery from producers and loading grain onto trains, they are taking delivery of corn by train and transferring it onto trucks to fill sales contracts they’ve signed with cattle feeders — many of which are the same producers who otherwise sell grain to these companies.
Labour shortages, due to COVID-19 and more, have exacerbated the challenge in some situations, causing delays with loading and unloading trains and trucks. Several feedlots say delays in unloading trains have resulted in the railway putting a lower priority on these shipments. In some cases, they’ve been penalized financially with demurrage fees. [The guy who pointed this out to me commented: Stunning that the railway can simply stop shipping animal feed.]
There’s also concern the Canadian and U.S. government’s cross-border vaccination mandates, taking effect January 15 and 22, respectively, are removing a significant number of truck drivers from the road. Several sources told RealAgriculture they’ve also heard of a train being delayed due to crew members not wanting to have to quarantine in Canada.
To put the amount of feed that’s needed in context, ACFA says one rail car — the equivalent of approximately two super B trailers — will feed approximately 8,000 head of cattle for one day. There are approximately 1.5 million head in the province, meaning the industry requires more than a 100 unit train every day to replace the barley and wheat that would normally be sourced closer to home.
…and here’s a follow-up. Something to consider: Farmers need to make a profit, and even if they can produce something, that doesn’t mean they will if they can’t be sure that they’ll make money on it.
Something completely different: There have been a tremendous number of birds killed because of(notby) the avian flu this year — last I looked, something like 28,000,000. Note the German egg problem below, which wasn’t related to the bird flu.
Andersons’ own calculation of input costs shows that “agflation” has been rising at 10% a year in recent months, compared with 5.5% for the more general consumer prices index, and is expected to surge further ahead as the effect of the war in Ukraine is felt.
“The world has changed,” says Andersons partner and consultant Michael Haverty. “The Ukraine crisis has put renewed upwards pressure on everything, but especially fuel, fertiliser and animal feed.
“Whether any of this can be recouped by farmers depends on the extent to which consumers are able to pay more for their food,” he suggests.
…The real hike in costs is likely to hit the following season, Mr King suggests, with Loam Farm [one of four model farsm used for forecasting] forecast to see its margin from production drop from £325/ha in 2022 to just £30/ha, as variable costs climb another 36% while overheads reach £500/ha.
…The projections for Meadow Farm – a notional 154ha farm with suckler cows, finishers, sheep and arable, producing grain for livestock – suggest production margins will fall from a small profit of £31/ha in 2021-22 to a hefty loss of £202/ha in 2022-21.
The outlook is just as bleak for Uplands Farm – a 300ha beef and sheep holding with 90 spring-calving sucklers and 800 ewes in the north of England.
Even with 2021-22’s buoyant prices, the farm is projected to make a small loss on its farming practices while, for next year, a steep rise in feed, fuel and fertiliser is expected to push this loss to £165/ha.
My interpretation: If inputs are already that expensive, and margins are already that low, and outputs are expected to drop, then either the cost of food will dramatically (like 2x in some areas of the world, not the paltry 10% we’ve been seeing) over the next year or two, or there simply won’t be enough food available in some parts of the world as farmers drop out of the business and see their farms repossessed, or both.
Russia and China both stopped exporting fertilizer earlier this year.
“Russia is a major, major exporter across all of the major fertilizers,” says Linville. “Urea, they account for 14% of the global export total. UAN has been anywhere from 25% to 31% the last couple of years. Phosphate 10%. They are almost 20% of the global operating potash capacity of the entire world. They’re a big deal. Losing Russian exports is a very big deal. I don’t care where you are in the earth, it matters to you.”
However, even with Russia pulling off the world market, it still doesn’t create a “worst-case scenario” for fertilizer availability and prices. Linville says China holds the card for that scenario as Russia and China combined account for 40% to 45% of total global phosphate production.
“We are still working with the idea that China is going to come back to the export market in June of this year. If China steps out and says what you’re doing to Russia is like an attack on us, we are going to attack we’re going to take over Taiwan, we start to do the same thing to China, the rest of the world has done to Russia, then it gets worse than where we’re at today,” says Linville.
This is a Google translation, so forgive its awkwardness. This is also about Germany, not North America, but we’re all connected. This is the opening hal of the article:
The German egg industry speaks of “red alert”. Against the background of massively restricted supply chains and dramatic cost increases, especially for animal feed, the Federal Egg Association is sending an urgent wake-up call to politicians and the food retail trade.
From summer 2022 at the latest , the supply of eggs can no longer be guaranteed, writes the Central Association of the German Poultry Industry.
“Sheer existential fear” among farmers
The latest developments on the global agricultural market are bringing the German egg industry to its knees.
“There is sometimes sheer existential fear among our farmers. The prices for animal feed have more than doubled in a very short time. GMO-free soy is hard to come by. As a result, many keepers are no longer able to re-stall,” Henner Schönecke, Chairman of the BVEi, describes the situation.
No more restocking means fewer laying hens are available to lay eggs. Schönecke expects that the security of supply with German eggs can no longer be guaranteed by August at the latest.
This is a lot of stuff, and there’s more I could post — this isn’t even the most paranoid stuff out there, by far — but I’ll stop. This selection is reasonable information from respected publications, not click-bait doomsayers. I haven’t even gotten into the weather issues we’ve had, where the western part of the US is in drought, the east has been too cold and wet to plant, and as a result of that (among other things!) we’ve had late crops, bad crops, and reduced expected yields. I’m understating the level of problems we’ve seen.
This information was all available before the mainstream press started talking about a food crisis. The first time I noticed a mainstream article citing a significant politician was in late March, when the UK environment secretary talked about a 30% increase in the cost of chicken. There were a lot of warning signs before then.
Some things have already been overcome. Some of the Canadian rail issues have been resolved. Bayer seems to have resolved its early glysophate problems. And America makes an incredible amount of food, a lot of which gets wasted, so I don’t see us going hungry.
But I expect significant price increases here, and even lack of availability elsewhere. And where there’s lack of food availability — hunger — there’s unrest. We needed bumper crops to get over the issues we were already facing, and it got worse with the Ukraine invasion. We’re not getting a bumper crop. There will be issues.
Gotta go. If you want drill-down on anything, let me know and I’ll tell you what I know so far.
