The Laughing Wolf – Page 84 – Commentary, Punditry, and More

60-40

The question that continues to be asked is if we are going to have a nuclear war. The honest answer to that is: I don’t know. There are a large number of variables and based on where everything is this morning, I think the odds might be as high as 40-60 right now.

The real question people should be asking is if we will have a nuclear incident. I use that phrase deliberately, as there is an option on the table that is either being ignored or overlooked. Right now, I think the odds of a nuclear incident are 60-40.

There are a lot of factors in play. Here’s my take on just a few of them.

First, to say there are cracks emerging in Russia is an understatement. It would appear that a number of factions are not just jockeying for position, but are attacking each other. There are reports indicating that Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is going after Shoigu, head of the military. If it is indeed a fight between them, I might put $10 on Shoigu given his experience with infighting. Where it gets interesting is with the rumors that Kadyrov is joining in to go after Shoigu. For a number of reasons, Kadyrov is the king keeper or king maker in Russia right now. If he joins in, my money is no longer on Shoigu to win.

Second, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t matter. People can riot and hang Putin in effigy in multiple cities in districts outside of Moscow, and it really won’t matter. The only city for which that does not hold true is St. Petersburg. What happens in St. Petersburg has a tendency to slide over into Moscow. It’s real only if it happens in Moscow.

Third, there are some very interesting, and extremely unconfirmed, rumors of various factions shifting positions (as it were) in Moscow. Are they looking to perhaps push things along, or just preparing for Vladimir to no longer be in power? And, yes, Vladimir’s position is no longer stable even with the lies, propaganda, outside troops, and cultural issues.

Fourth, this brings us to the situation on the ground in the Ukraine. The Russians flat out have been humiliated, and it’s not over yet. Even with throwing conscripts into the cauldron (without training or even working gear in some cases), odds are good the Russians are going to get pounded. Which actually puts things back to where they were early on with the Russians limited to trying to terrorize the civilian population. Keep in mind, they see this as a legitimate target, because you either are a good Russian at heart pining to be a part of Russkiy Mir, or you are a Nazi who deserves to be raped/tortured/maimed/killed/etc. Obviously, since they have resisted the heroic Russian army of liberation…

Fifth, Vladimir is going full-Hitler. He is taking over more and more of the decision making, and otherwise trying to run everything. Didn’t work for Hitler, won’t work for him. There are already signs of some extremely poor decisions being made, including using up extremely limited stockpiles of precision weapons on non-precision targets (Xi smiles). I really hope anyone who reads me is also reading the ISW, Stephen Green, and others for combat and other analysis, and Kamil Galeev for his insights on Russian culture, history, and more.

There is more, of course, but those are the high notes, which bring me to my trying to read the tea leaves. Here we go.

Based on his latest statement, Vladimir appears to actually be trying to slow walk both an escalation to nuclear or special weapons, and to temper the expectations of his hardline followers. Part of this could be from a small bit of reality about his military breaking into the bubble in which he and so many of the oligarchia live, but I wouldn’t count on it. I suspect it is more from pressure from fellow oligarchs who realize a nuclear war would be bad for business and that while they don’t mind others dying for the Rodina, they object to the fact that they would die.

The layered response discussed means, however, that those evil Ukrainian civilians are going to get what he thinks they deserve as often as possible. Setbacks, defeats, anything happening on territory that he even faintly imagines might have belonged to Russia at some time in another reality means attacks on civilian targets.

As he steps up the escalation, however, it also increases the chances that we might see the use of non-nuclear special weapons. For all that the U.S. has equated use of such as being the same as the use of a nuke, reality is that we have never responded as such when they have been used previously. So, Vladimir is quite likely to consider such use on that basis, and to react badly if we do suddenly decide to enforce our convention. He will pitch a public tantrum no matter what, that’s a given.

Vladimir could decide to do a demonstration, as it were. Sal, aka CDR Salamander, has a very interesting take on such. Back in the days of extensive testing of systems and weapons, the goal (on our side) was to have at least 80 percent of the systems and weapons work if the button(s) were pushed. Right now, I’m wondering if even 20 percent would work on any side. No, I really don’t want to find out but Sal’s take is a good one.

There have been a number of highly-realistic wargames done where a tactical nuke was used. I would feel much better if anyone could name one where it did not end up going strategic. Yes, a number of limited scenarios (and extremely unrealistic larger games) have avoided it. Just not the ones based on reality. With calm, competent, stable, and intelligent leadership, I think it can be avoided. With the Regency, Vladimir, Xi, Macaroon, et al, well, we may be having to pin our hope on ol’ 20 percent (or less).

As scary as that is, let me give you something else to think about. By luck we avoid the use of a nuclear weapon by anyone for any reason. The fact is, we can’t give in to such blackmail, otherwise the use of such will never end. Sanity would be for everyone to realize that, and step back. Yet, Vladimir is facing a humiliating defeat not just for himself, but for the dream of Russkiy Mir. If he can’t have the Ukraine, no one will.

The last cruise missiles go in, carrying conventional warheads. They hit at every nuclear power plant in the Ukraine. The goal is not to hit the reactors themselves, but to take out power and control. The idea being to create a situation at each that makes Chernobyl look like nothing. Hit Chernobyl to damage the shield. Vladimir seems to have already hinted at this once, and it is not something I would put past him. Particularly since he’s been playing that very game at Zaporizhia for weeks now. In fact, I would expect a massive maskirova based on what he’s been doing there to go with it, to try to shift the blame elsewhere. How would we react to that?

What can we do? Two things. First, pray. I mean that very sincerely. Second, prepare. It’s going to be a long nasty winter around the world, no matter what happens, so if you haven’t gotten into practical preparedness now is a good time. If you aren’t familiar with preparedness or my version of practical preparedness, start here and work forward. While the potential number of disasters is infinity-minus-2, there are only three things that can be damaged and that makes planning and preparations much easier. Even if we avoid any form of nuclear incident in or because of the Ukraine, being prepared is likely to help make this winter easier.

Meantime, I don’t expect things to go ballistic in the next few hours. In fact, with what Vladimir said today, I see some breathing room as it were. Possibly several weeks worth. I think before we get to any form of go/nogo situation, we will see a number of things happen.

First, I expect to see Belarus invade the Ukraine along with Russian troops. This week or next week at the latest. Vladimir desperately needs that second front to draw troops away from the east and south. There are a number of reasons for Lukashenko to join in, including his own ambitions. Ed Morrissey has his take up at Hot Air. I will note that Lukashenko has cultivated a bumbling, country bumpkin image with Russian media and leadership, and an amazing number of them seem to be stupid enough to buy it. He’s used that image to stick a finger in Vladimir’s eye before and get away with it. He’s joining in, but don’t expect slavish devotion as his Number 1 is not Vladimir or his goals. Oh, and I think his birthday gift of a tractor to Vladimir was very well played. ISW does not agree with me on this, and I hope they are right and I’m wrong.

Second, I expect to see Russia lose more ground in the east and south. How much is going to be the question. Vladimir will be looking for any chance to claim that something was done on Russian territory so he can hurt more civilians, so expect to see the Ukrainians fight smart.

Third, I would expect to see MOPP gear show up for Russian/Wagner troops. Open question for any OSINT who read this: is anyone seeing any MOPP gear with any Russian troops anywhere? Heck, is anyone seeing any MOPP gear anywhere? Right now, the Russians don’t seem to be able to supply uniforms, cold or wet weather gear, or much of anything else. Even with the Russian attitude towards the life of the troops (eh, we can get more), you are likely to get squeamish commanders who are going to balk at using any special weapon if it’s going to kill more of their troops than the enemy. So, I would expect to see at least some attempt to protect the Russian troops first.

Fourth, I would expect to see several levels of escalation first. After all, Vladimir wants to make the case that he tried everything else first. That it also allows him to study the board and see if his threats are having the intended effect is important too.

So, no boom today. Not seeing it tomorrow either. The Day After? We will see.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Whew, Good Visit

One of the side effects, if you will, of being hit by lightning is that you tend to collect doctors and other medical types. At least for a while, I had my GP, a cardiologist, a cardiac surgeon, a couple of different rehab people, a neurologist, the doctor who did my cognitive evaluation, my ENT, a dermatologist, and even a podiatrist. I feel like I may be leaving one or two out, but you get the idea.

We have spent a bit over a year now trying to get everything fixed, make sure nothing else needs fixing or is trying to develop, and otherwise slowly trying to get the number of medical types back down to a manageable level (by my standards). We’ve had to rule out a couple of types of cancer, identify and deal with issues in my digestive system, monitor shoulder joints that need replacement (I really want the funds to try some regenerative medicine), confirm the amount of hearing loss and the nerve death associated with some of it, do cognitive and physical therapy, and other such fun things.

When I get asked why I haven’t yet moved, I tend to point to the above. I will also point out that my current insurance will not transfer out of state, and within the limits of what it covers, has been a champ. Their call center rates a 10 to the negative 14 Tor on customer service, but they have paid the bills and even gotten creative on a few things much to my surprise. I suspect that one thing they did not only benefits me but earns them extra money, but I can’t complain about it.

Let’s look at the good news, and give some thanks. First, I’m alive. By all rights, I really should not be alive.

Second, the heart seems to be doing very good after the open heart surgery and the three procedures done. I’m not up to weights and such (working towards it) but am to the point I am walking several times a week; and, as much as possible, 3 or more miles on each walk. Thanks to the new shoes you helped me get, I’m hoping to do another 7+ mile walk here soon. I still tire easily and am nowhere close to being able to do all I used to do, but I am working to get to as close to that as I can. May take a few years, but….

Third, we did rule out a number of bad things as possibilities, though it also meant confirming a condition that effects the digestive system. There may be some other in there, but it’s not major (yet). Also, thanks to this one, I may not need another colonoscopy for five years instead of three.

Fourth, the cognitive therapy has given me some coping mechanisms for the short-term memory issues. Things can derail, but if I stay with routine and am careful, most days are not too bad. I joke that I have the short-term memory of a mayfly, but lists and such get me by much of the time. Just far too easy to lose the train of thought multiple times in an hour. They think all of the long-term memories are still there, just scrambled for now. I liken it to my memories being a room full of filing cabinets, where someone went in, pulled drawers at random, and dumped them — then the jerk cut on a fan. They say my mind should heal in about 3 years or so, and then we can make sure nothing was lost.

Fifth, and final for today, my liver, kidneys, such seem to be in good shape. I honestly would not have been surprised at more internal damage, but God was merciful. Given the amount of power that went through my body and left a small melt trail over the sole of my shoe, it really should have been worse. To say I’m grateful it’s not is an understatement.

Oh, before I forget, I’m down to just two doctors monitoring me on a regular basis! Now, to get them to coordinate their blood draws…

For almost all these things, except for the digestive track issues, time will heal. It may take 3-5 years, but if I keep working at it there is hope for improvement. It just takes time, patience, and a bit more.

In the learn-to-live-with-it department, the hearing damage is permanent and a hearing aid or advanced system isn’t going to do anything. Both ears took a hit on general hearing and tinnitus levels, but the right side (where the lightning hit) saw all of my high-frequency hearing lost, and the nerves for that range are dead. The ENT wants to do yearly tests to be sure there is not a continuing drop-off and monitor. Something I didn’t mention earlier is that long-term effects are possible in all areas. Hence, the monitoring by the GP and cardiologist (and ENT). In some ways, this bothers me the most since I lost up to 50 percent of my hearing range on one side. It makes things sound different and it throws off my ability to locate sources of sounds. Heck, it even makes things sound different since I can’t hear all of the sound. Bites on music. The digestive track issues are something I will just have to live with too.

In the your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine department, there are the shoulders, the lower back, and other issues related to an interesting life. The lightning strike has not helped some of them, as I’ve had to change up how I do a number of things which puts more stress on them. Net result, the shoulders are getting worse faster than hoped. Painful and limits arm movement. Not amused. The back, well, we will see.

And, yes, I’m giving the best possible case here. I am, at heart, an optimist. A cynic and a few other things, but still an optimist who has given thanks that he is still here. At best, I’m going to be sidelined for 3 years if all goes well, and if it doesn’t go well, well… Thankfully, I can still reason and write though not as well or as fast as I used to be able to do a story. What used to take an hour tends to take a fair bit more than that these days. Even then, there are likely to be typos and such: some by me, some by autocorrect, and some I’m going to blame on the landlord’s cats just because. Furry little stalkers.

With today’s visit and results, I see a way forward on moving. I thought I did earlier, but now that both docs are showing clear, much better. I can and will hope for the best on everything. Onwards.

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Posting Later?

There is a LOT going on, and it would not surprise me to see Belarus cross the border this week. Could be next week, but pretty sure it is going to happen. Meantime, I have to go visit a doctor this morning for what I hope is strictly routine. Hoping to be posting later, will see what happens.

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Into The Light: Denny Wilson

Bleep. When he made it home, I had hoped he was on the mend. Sadly, it was not to be. Denny (Dennis) Wilson, aka the Grouchy Old Cripple, was one of the early bloggers and he stayed with it until the end.

His “Asshole of the Week” and “Saturday Boobage” posts on Saturday could overshadow his musical posts on Sunday in some ways, but the latter presented an amazing array of talent and musical ability that always entertained and usually had me in awe of the musicians. He had a way with words and his posts were indeed entertaining.

At a blogger meetup in Atlanta, he was, I think, amused at how fast everyone said he was picking the wine to go with the dinner. Not that bloggers were or are ever a cantankerous bunch who rarely agreed on anything… Fact was, Denny was a member of the Sommelier Guild of Atlanta (hobby, after the Navy he worked with computers at IBM) and his choices weren’t just good but amazing.

Godspeed! You are missed already.

PayPal

Yes, PayPal is gone and I am in search of another service for donations. I want one that actually is focused on providing service, not servicing people with politics and totalitarianism. As soon as I find such, I will put a link up in The Bard’s Jar.

I suppose it could be argued that deliberation and patience are in order, given that using PayPal has helped me survive financially after getting hit by lightning. Many of you have shown me the extraordinary kindness of sending me gifts via PayPal that have allowed me to eat, pay bills, move my hosting, and more. I am now limited to just the fundraiser, until I can find a replacement. So be it. I would rather risk missing a bill than to continue to use them. I would rather live in my car under an underpass somewhere than give those authoritarian goons a single dime more.

By the way, if you sincerely believe the statement they have issued walking back their draconian policy: Do I Have A Deal For You! Bridge. Guaranteed moneymaker. Cash Only.

The only reason they have backed down is the lights being shined on them and the number of people closing their accounts. More need to cancel. More lights need to be shined. Because unless that happens, anyone want to start a pool on how long it is before they try this crap again? Social credit systems are all the rage in China and with the WEF crowd, but have place in a free society. Anyone pushing such is in desperate need of a tar and feather spa day.

And, that is exactly what PayPal was doing: trying to bring a social credit system to the United States. I’m doing what I can by closing my account, a process they apparently have decided to make as difficult as they can. I hope others join me, as until PayPal is in the grave with a wooden stake through it’s heart and a sharp blade over its neck like that “vampire” corpse they just found in Europe, the danger remains. As I said above, they will try this crap again.

So, let them know what you think with your wallet. Take your business elsewhere. Shine a light and be sure to note the regulatory environment they have. The more of us who do that, the better. For it is time to raze and salt the ground so they nor anyone else is foolish enough to try to do this ever again.

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A Rant On Behalf Of A Friend

Warning: This rant may contain foul or objectionable language and is rated I for Infantry. There are likely to be frank discussions about parentage, probable offspring, and sexual preferences of those under discussion. I would say it is intended for mature audiences, but the fact that I am writing it to CNN management at all levels rules that out. I will try to use small words so as not to tax their lack of intellect.

I got up this morning fully expecting to write my first major story at the new host on Armageddon Joe (stealing a line from Twitter: He grew up in Nagasaki you know…) and the nuclear follies. There is plenty of time for that I suspect, and while it needs discussion I need to lower my blood pressure and vent some ire.

If you are with CNN, I ask you to read this as if my greying muzzle is parked about three inches in front of your eyes and I’ve recently eaten pickled eggs. I’m going to start with the more in sorrow than anger tone, but it’s not going to last.

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I’m not even going to ask you what your fecking major malfunction is, as it is obvious to anyone who has observed your actions over the years. It is writ upon everything you do, everything you have done, and barring a very direct and powerful deus ex machina painfully visited upon you, it will be writ upon everything you ever do. You are cowards led by cowards. Honor, integrity, and professionalism are words you have to look up in the dictionary as they are not a part of your life.

There isn’t a murderous tyrant on this Earth that you haven’t felched. You’ve admitted more than once to not running stories about them because if you did you would lose the ability to “interview” them, run their propaganda, and be able to claim that you had an office or bureau in their country.

Your commitment to journalistic ethics and honesty are such that Duranty is shaking his head in disgust at you. In that zoo you call a newsroom you had Toobins, Taters, Lemons, and a host of others who wouldn’t know real and honest journalism if it came up and bit them or you on your fat asses! You were and are a laughingstock, and you had one person, ONE, who showcased honor, professionalism, and integrity. AND YOU DID THIS TO HER???

Just consider everything from here on to be in all caps

You festering pustules on the anus of humanity! You products of a sperm bank for the mentally deficient! It’s no wonder you can only have sex with your partner on top as all you can do is fuck up! You do not know how to do anything else!

I don’t care that the cowardly fucking simp that was Zucker is gone. How many of you knew about this disgusting display of abject cowardice and toxic lack of professionalism and said and did nothing? Did any of you say or do anything, or did you just lie back to either enjoy or rejoice that it wasn’t happening to you?

There is not the first one of you who has any idea about real journalism or professionalism in any form. Got news for you sweethearts, this is not how it is done. It is not how real people, real managers, or real anything work. Real people step up, have discussions, listen, counsel at need, and everybody learns and grows. The level of cowardice you have displayed is beyond comprehension and better suited to a kindergarten playground than an alleged professional organization.

I don’t know what she thinks of me, but I consider her a friend and a professional that I highly respect. Respect that has been earned, something you fucktards don’t have the first clue about. She was the ONLY reason I watched CNN at all in the last few years as if I saw her on I would stop and watch for as long as she was on. I deeply regret letting two people pressure me into a decision years back that I regard as one of the worst mistakes of my life. MK is the personification of all the things you mental midgets will never have: personal and professional ethics, honor, integrity, fortitude, and class. I don’t think I can find any of her many positive attributes in any of you even if I used a fucking electron microscope.

I’m not sure that between the lot of you that there are two neurons to form a synapse, or a complete set of reproductive organs. Unlike you, she has a brain and uses it; and, hers are big, brass, and clank when she walks even though they are inside her. She has taken hits in life no one should have to face, and has rebuilt her life and apparently achieved personal happiness on a level that warms the cockles of this old wolf’s black flabby heart.

And you do this to her! You defective miserable pieces of shit! The best part of your daddies clearly dribbled down your momma’s leg. You are disgusting cowards that make slime molds seem elevated.

You owe her an apology, at the least. A real one, not a typical corporate or political non-apology. If any of you have any inkling of honor or integrity it will be made on your knees. As much time as the lot of you spend on them anyway, it shouldn’t be too hard to get on your knees to apologize. Personally, I hope she never darkens your doorway again, as she can do a hell of a lot better than the sewer that is CNN.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Full Power Restored?

Well, the impulse engines are online at least. Time will tell about the mains and hitting warp speed. The number 4 shield is still iffy, but it’s not covering a critical area so we will limp along with it.

I will say this, I was pleasantly surprised by one thing in regards Nexcess: they did indeed honor their 30-day guarantee. I really didn’t expect them to do so given how hard they push the upsell. But, they ended service and refunded my money in a couple of hours as it worked out. PayPal already has the funds and they are working their way back to my account. If their service and customer service had been as advertised, it would have been a very different situation.

Waiting a bit before I say anything about the new host as I don’t want to jinx it. I also want to see how they handle an Instalanche or two as well. I’m fully expecting to have to do some upgrading or additional payments, but that’s not because of anything they have said. Rather, it is because even with the plan I opted for, an Instalanche may tax the resources a bit. Besides, I’m also willing to pay for help in/on some of the behind the scenes work dealing with various things that were not a factor 20 years ago when blogging was new.

We have power. We are back in operation. More soon.

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Testing, Again

Going to see how things go, and if all goes well back to regular blogging soon.

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Brace — Again

With your kind help, and if all goes to plan, I will start the process of moving to a new hosting provider on Monday. Once that is complete, I will see if Nexcess honors their guarantee and try to get my money back.

Meantime, I may not be posting much here until the move is complete. I will be snarking, er, commenting and sharing a bit on twitter as LaughingWolfOne. I’m hoping that things will stay calm for a bit, and really don’t expect much in regards Vladimir until after the Duma votes.

For everyone who is helping, via the tip jar, fundraiser, and prayers, THANK YOU! Your gifts have kept me going and are very, very much appreciated!

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Well, Shit

NOTE: Welcome Instapundit Readers and others. Apologies for the slow loading and such, but “new” host has issues too. As fast as I can come up with an additional $175, am switching to a different provider. And, yes, plan to get my money back from the “new” provider and use it to upgrade the new new provider. Thank you for your patience, and your gifts!

Just finished watching Vladimir’s rambling speech. A few things, other than rambling and what appear to be some interesting word choices/phrasing, pop out immediately.

First, it was a recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir, how everyone has been mean to Russia, done it bad, and otherwise behaved like a guy in a Crystal Gayle song towards the Rodina throughout its history. For all that the US was the focus of his bitching, Great Britain comes in for a lot of oblique criticism too. In fact, it might could be argued that more was directed at them than most may realize — it depends on how well one knows Russian history and Russian culture.

Two, it was — as expected — staking a position that any attempt to liberate/assault/etc. any of the territories they were claiming was an attack on Russia. That any attack on Russia would be responded to with overwhelming force including special weapons/nuclear weapons at need. I really want to go back and listen to him on this point, as I think the translation may have missed a bit. Again, as with another recent statement, it seemed to push special (chemical) ahead of nuclear but with some of the rambling…

Three, he pretty much accused the US of attacking the Nordstream pipelines, and in the process effectively denied that Russia had deliberately sabotaged them. Given some interesting info that is coming out from those knowledgeable, one has to wonder if Russian incompetence may have resulted in the explosions, which makes the wording used by Vladimir potentially very interesting.

Four, his attack on Western values including references to transitioning children and other hot-button topics in the West (including family values which may have included an indirect swipe at the new Italian PM) was IMO a touch of brilliance that reflects the old Vladimir rather than the current. I expect to see any attempt to go after such efforts in the West now resulting in accusations of being a Russian stooge/proxy/agent/etc. Yet more Gramscian damage to the West. Well played.

Five, I really want to go back and re-listen to his words and phrasing, but I believe Vladimir may have just repudiated every arms treaty, strategic or otherwise, in effect. That Russia would not be bound by efforts to reduce her defense by other powers who were already in violation of said treaties and using them to keep the Rodina down. Huge, and I suspect this is going to get overlooked in the short term. Oh, it was also the reason for my “Oh. Shit.” twitter post.

Six, in his rambling, Vladimir made plain that Russia was great; Russian culture was far superior to Western (or Eastern) culture; Russia would resume its proper place on the world stage; and that all true Russian people would flock to Russia’s banner. Again, Russkiy Mir.

The stage is set. Now, we wait to see what happens.

For those interested, the best way to prevent the use of nukes and escalation is to emphasize preparedness. Not on the Federal level, but to show that State and local governments have taken steps to ensure continuity of government and services. That individuals have taken steps and are prepared to deal with what comes. That works, and yes there are substantive reasons for saying this. Along with other preparations, a remarkable amount of deterence can be achieved.

Final note: cut the sound off and watch him. In fact, do it several times and each time focus on a different area: head, right arm, left arm, torso, feet. Then, watch the reactions in the audience. Some of them are quite interesting. Then, cut the sound on and listen just to him, no translators or talking heads, while watching him and the audience. Yes, I’m thinking there are some things you might should be catching. Far more than just the rambling and stumbling.

While we wait, prepare. Now’s the time, make the most of it.

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